Part 1: Rounds 30-50
Part 2: Rounds 20-29
Part 3: Rounds 11-19
Part 4: Rounds 1-10
Part 5: Overview of the draft/comparison to last 2 drafts
Today we put the final coat of paint on the 2008 draft in terms of short term analysis. The true value of this draft isn’t likely to be known for 4-5 years, maybe even more because of the sheer number of high school picks taken. It will be fun to watch guys progress over the next year or two, but we’ll need much more time to evaluate true worth. I have some general thoughts, as well as some comparison info to post as well. Lets get to it.
Edit. Yeah, Epilogue. I finished writing this at 4AM last night. It slipped my mind.
Before I give my final thoughts, I figured I’d share some charts I made to illustrate the Phillies spending in relation to the rest of baseball. First off, I think the concept of just listing how much money teams spent, as a general figure, is worthless. Teams picking at the top of the draft will typically spend more money, simply because the slots dictate it. I think better indicators are available, and that’s what I intend to lay out here.
Figure 1
larger version here.
The Commissioner’s Office outlines slot recommendations for every pick in the first 5 rounds of the draft. The bonuses generally decline in a symmetrical fashion. We’ve been over it before how some teams deviate from the recommendations, and the pros and cons of that debate have been widely discussed. This first chart is a summary of the amount that teams went either above or below the slot recommendation in the first 5 rounds. Its simply looking at the pick, the bonus paid, and whether that bonus was above or below. I added the total figures, both for bonuses paid and slot recommendations and then found the total amount. This method helps account for 2 things; it reduces the discrepancy between the teams picking 1st/2nd in every round and simply paying slot and those who may be picking later but taking higher ranked players that require more money. Second, it offsets teams who have more picks in the first 5 rounds but choose to either pay strict slot or in some cases, less than slot. One practical example: Milwaukee spent $6.88M in the first 5 rounds on 9 draft picks. They went over slot by 2.6%. The Braves spent only $3.17M on 6 picks but went over slot by 7.9% in the first 5 rounds. I think that tells you more than just raw money spent.
The Phillies come in here 11th in major league baseball, right below Atlanta and right above the Cubs. The Phillies paid slot money to Hewitt, Collier, Gose, Worley and Hamilton and went over slot for Knapp (slightly), Pettibone and May. The Yankees and Nationals are hurt here because they failed to sign their first round picks, and in fact, the Yankees failed to sign 2 of their top 3 selections.
Figure 2
large version here.
This chart illustrates spending in rounds 6-10. After round 5, the Commish does not make specific slot recommendations, instead making a blanket recommendation that teams not pay more than $150,000 for any one player’s bonus. If you assumed a straight $150,000 bonus for every pick and signed all 5 picks, you’d pay out $750,000. Of course, not every team does this. Some teams spend heavily here, some teams choose to pay their 6th or 7th round pick a $25,000 bonus. In this portion of the draft, the Phillies spent $695,000, but on only 4 picks because Johnny Coy did not sign. Colby Shreve’s over slot deal pushes up our total, with Jean Rodriguez and Julio Rodriguez both getting $100K+ and Overbeck getting $80K. The Phillies found themselves 13th in spending here, but 5th highest among teams that signed less than 5 picks. The Yankees, failing to sign their guys at the top, spent heavily (and overspent, in my opinion) in these rounds. The A’s also spent heavily, notably on Brett Hunter and Rashaun Dixon, both guys getting huge deals.
Figure 3
large version here.
Finally, we have spending from the 11th round on. The same caveat applies here, nothing over $150K, and in many cases, these guys are getting very very small bonuses. The Red Sox signed 4 guys for significantly over slot deals here, double any other team. The Indians spent heavily on their 2 guys, and the Phillies bonus for Cosart put them in the 8th spot. Only 13 teams signed players for big bonuses, based on the info I have.
So, just looking at this year in a vacuum, that seems promising. The Phillies weren’t afraid to draft high ceiling talent and then get them signed. They aren’t in the high rent district with Boston, the Yankees, Rangers and Royals, but they certainly spent money. They didn’t go super cheap in rounds 6-10, and they spent big after the 10th round, picking their spot and getting their guy.
Now I want to compare the Phillies 2008 draft to their 2007 draft, which I think will illustrate the key differences in philosophy.
Figure 4
large version here.
As you can see, the Phillies increased their spending, relative to slot, by about 18% in the first 5 rounds of 2008. They also greatly outspent their 2007 total from R6-10 and signed one less player than last season. Last year, the bonuses in this section were;
Rizzotti: $120,000
Brummett: $25,000
Chapman: $20,000
Kissock: $50,000
Rocchio: $10,000
The difference is pretty clear. Shreve’s bonus nearly doubled all of theirs combined. Last year, the Phillies spent $390K on Sampson and $150K on Jiwan James. This year they opted for 1 guy instead of 2, and paid a higher premium but spent almost the same amount of money. In fact, when you factor in inflation, its essentially the same amount of money.
Figure 5
large version here.
And this, folks, is the big difference, highlighted in yellow. The Phillies drafted more high school kids in the first round in 2008 than they did in the previous 2 years combined. The total number of HS kids from 2007 to 2008 increased by only 1, but the big difference is where they were picked. The Phillies took the calculated risks early and they got them signed instead of just drafting them in rounds 35-50 and not making a reasonable attempt. The Phillies also went the JuCo route again after completely bailing in 2007.
So now a few thoughts
* Essentially, the Phillies completely changed course in 2008. This raises a few big questions. Did they do this because of the recent moves the Nationals have made in the draft? Were they biding their time and waiting for a division rival to break ranks before they did? Is this a 1 year aberration, to be replaced next year with the 2007 model? Are the Phillies going to become even more aggressive in the draft? Really we won’t know until draft day next year, but you have to love the change in philosophies from 2007 to 2008. Looking at the first 10 rounds, the two drafts really couldn’t have been any different. Last year, they essentially went the cheap route and took lots of really pedestrian prospects. This year, they loaded up on toolsy gambles and backed it up with even more gambles.
* If you asked me to give my 3 favorite picks of the draft, based on draft position, my expectations for the player, value, etc etc, I’d rank them like this
Collier: Simply put, he was great value at 34, when he realistically could have gone in the 15-20 range. Great all around tool set, lots of promise, but already showing tangible baseball skills.
Cosart: Huge arm, huge potential, needs some polishing, but has a world of potential.
Shreve: A late first round arm for 3rd round money in the 6th round. Needs to prove he’s healthy, but I think he might end up one of the best picks of the entire draft.
* On the flip side, if you asked me for my 3 least favorite picks, all things considered, it would probably look like this;
Hewitt: Yeah. Well, moving on.
Pettibone: Big overdraft I think. Potential is there, but I think hes going to take a long time to develop, and I have concerns about his delivery. Not to mention they paid over slot to get him. That said, I’m glad they signed him, so its not even that I hate the pick. I just think we could have done better. That should tell you how much I like this draft.
Overbeck: Kind of odd, he doesn’t really have a defined position at the next level, doesn’t take many walks, just don’t really see where he fits in. Not that we wasted a high pick on him, mind you. Again, just kind of reaching to say something negative to counteract the three gushing positives.
* I think that basically wraps it up. I think the last thing I’d say is to caution people when evaluating this draft 6 years from now. If all of these guys end up either getting hurt/flaming out/sucking, that doesn’t mean it was a bad draft. It means the results didn’t turn out the way you wanted them to, but the process, the concept of paying for elite talent and hoping they develop, is the absolute right process. Baseball history is littered with guys who had all the talent in the world and couldn’t stay healthy, or guys with great makeup who just couldn’t quite get to the highest level, or guys who just couldn’t quite master the art of the offspeed pitch. Its easy to judge based on major league stat lines, but as I mentioned back in Part 1, the draft is much more about process. If you set yourself up to succeed by doing all the right things, its still possible to fail, especially in a game like baseball that involves a great deal of luck/things out of your control. But if you consistently put yourself in the best position to succeed, eventually the results should show up. If 2 of the guys taken in this draft turn into big league regulars, the draft was a success. When I look at Collier, Hewitt, Gose, Shreve, May, and Cosart, I feel like at least 2 of those guys are going to be big leaguers, and at least 2 will contribute real value to this team.
Obviously time will tell, but I love this draft. I love the process, I love the willingness to pay, and I love the willingness to take chances. Tune in next year and lets hope for a repeat performance.
Phuture Phillies 
Great job James. I think comparing the slot money by rounds is a very new (at least for me) and interesting take on evaluating the draft’s success.
I just wonder if the Phillies will repeat their success in the draft next year considering we may have new GM. I am just worried that well we will end up like Houston. I looked at their slot money and they really didn’t spend all that much considering they spent next to nothing last year, they only really shelled out in rounds 6-10.
I don’t think we can live with the older Philly draft philosophy when we are competing agianst the Braves and Marlins who always draft well, the Mets who have great international scouts, and the Nationals who have spent as much as anyone.
Oh well, at least next year we will be picking VERY late in the 1st round.
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Very cool stuff….I guess I would only ask this question: how much of paying “over slot” value has to do with specifically how the team views that year’s draftr? That is, is it a stronger draft? Can you say, “all 3rd rounders are not created equal?” Would Shreve have been say, a top 15 pick last year? This is obviously a question for any sport with a draft, but I suppose in baseball, there could be a little bit more of a “beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” especially if you have a good amount of extra picks?
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I agree with you that the Phillies were much more aggressive both philosophically and financially this season vs. the last few.
The only point I’ll raise is in regards to the signing of players over slot. Note sure that you can simply conclude that just because a player was signed for slot money that somehow that means the team that drafted him was going for an easy sign rather than that is where they had him rated.
For example, did the Phillies draft Hewitt and Collier simply because they would take slot or because they thought they were the best players at their spots? If both of these players had demanded above slot money, would the Phillies still have signed them?
No doubt that there are players taken in later rounds strictly because they are tough signs and some teams are more aggressive than others in going after and signing those players but just evaluating the numbers can overstate/understate a team’s approach to the draft.
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James, brilliant work this week. It will take a few reads to really digest everything. And I guess it’s a good sign if the Overbeck pick is one of your least favorites – even though he has some significant flaws (most notably free swinging and not good defense), he put up some very productive numbers..
3up – my guess is that the Phillies were drooling over Hewitt, given that they seem to love the athletic toolsy guys. I’m guessing they did their homework and had an idea how much he would want. Remember, Hewitt had a solid committment to Vanderbilt (I think) and there was a belief that he might be a tough sign. I think the same goes for Collier – he didn’t seem like he would be a tough sign. However, a guy like Rick Porcello (for example), they figured would require much more effort, and there was a solid possibility he wouldn’t even sign. I guess it’s all about assessing the risks
– Jeff
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I agree with your assessment of this year’s draft; I am sure that this is the most promising that I can ever remember!
In the past 10 years prior to 2008, I can not recall any drafts that there were more than 4 selections that I was really excited about …BUT… then again, I was the guy that was livid when they selected Utley in 2000. This year, there were 9 selections that I felt had the potential to make it: Collier, Gose (pitcher), Knapp, May, Shreve, Coy, Rosenberg, Schwimer & ..Hewitt.., although I would have preferred that he had been chosen much later. Cosart was not really on my radar because I never expected them to sign him but if they would have drafted him in the 3rd to 8th rounds, he would have been added to my list.
When you consider the signing of Cosart & the initial performance of some of the other picks that I have not mentioned, especially Stutes, the 2008 draft should prove to be outstanding!
Again, excellent job & thanks!
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My question is did they do this because ,They didn’t spend big in the international market?.Or is it a change in there thinking, We have to wait a year to get the answers to these question.
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Awesome job James, simply incredible work on your part. That’s easily the most insightful, comprehensive look at any draft I’ve ever read. Really enjoyable stuff. Keep up the great work (And hopefully the Phillies will keep up the great work they did in 2008 as well).
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James it’s amazing how much work you put into this site.You must have a unbelievable passion for the sport. Hopefully we can have the kind of questions and feedback this site warrants.
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“My question is did they do this because ,They didn’t spend big in the international market?”
they never spend big in the international market- hard to use something that never happens as a guage.
I think there is a logical assumption- 1) first and formost, the phils are in pretty good financial times, and have a little extra money to spend on things like draft picks, 2) Pat Gillick’s no dummy, even he knows the value of keeping up a farm system- and how much the phillies system has handicapped them from making trades for guys they want.
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That, and guys like Arby have been scoffing lately at the bonuses beeing paid out to latin signings- bonus amounts are really shooting up, while the talent level isn’t all that different. It seems they prefer to draft a kid in school and pay him- cause at least he has some sort of track record against competition to guage him against.
You take a guy like Cosart- and given what the scouting reports say about him, I think if he were a latin prospect $500,000 would be on the low end of what he could get (though latin bonuses often seem a little extra inflated to get a guy who is 16-17).
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Well they never really spend big in LA, sure they make some splashed every once in a while. But overall they don’t spend much in LA. I mean Valle was signed for what? 38,000 dollars or something.
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James, this is phenomenal stuff, and I can only imagine how much work you must have put in to compile this. For what it’s worth, there really isn’t much you’ve written that last few days that I can disagree with. As you say, the interesting thing going forward is to see if this is the start of a trend: if the 2009 draft follows in this path, then this organization is really, really headed in the right direction.
With regard to how the draft relates to the international market… I think the only way in which one spills over into the other is in a year like this year, when the Phils missed out on some guys like Adis Portillo and decided that any bonus money would be better spent on a late round flier like Cosart. They couldn’t have known that heading into the draft, but I’d be hard-pressed to imagine that one didn’t have an effect on the other this year.
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Great work,
lots to think about
ps a note on non-toolsy guys. If they make it mostly they seem to have short careers as a full time guy.
e.g. mickey morandini who faded very quickly
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First of all, I think you mean Epilogue, not Prologue.
James, your work has inspired me to compile some data from Baseball Cub to answer the question: How have the Phils done in the past in these same segments?
From 1965 through 2008, the Phils have drafted a total of 175 players that have made it to the major leagues. 108 of these were drafted in rounds 1-10, 37 of these in rounds 11-20, 21 in rounds 21-30, and 9 in rounds 31+.
During the same period, the phils have drafted 21 players that have appeared in mlb all-star games, 17 in rounds 1-10, 3 in rounds 11-20 (M. Williams, J Estrada and R. Sandberg), 1 in rounds 21-30 (Daulton) and 0 in rounds 30 +.
So an “average” draft is 2-3 major leaguers in rounds 1-10, 1 per year in rounds 11-20, and a half a major leaguer in rounds 21-30. I’ll comment in each of the segment threads.
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major leaguers drafted by the Phils since 1965 (* indicates an all-star, X indicates didn’t sign):
2008 (0)
2007 (0)
2006 (1) Andrew Carpenter (2)
2005 (2) Joshua Outman (10), Mike Zagurski (12)
2004 (3) Greg Golson (1), James Happ (3), Joe Bisenius (12)
2003 (3) Michael Bourn (4), Kyle Kendrick (7), Rob Johnson X (18), Brad Ziegler (20)
2002 (4*) Cole Hamels * (1), Zach Segovia (2), T.J. Beam X (11), Scott Mathieson (17), Bobby Korecky (19)
2001 (3*) Gavin Floyd (1), Ryan Howard * (5), Chris Roberson (9), Rocky Cherry X (10)
2000 (4*) Chase Utley * (1), Taylor Buchholz (6), Carlos Rivera (13), Travis Chapman (17)
1999 (4) Brett Myers (1), Joe Saunders X (5), Marlon Byrd (10), Frank Brooks (13), Kameron Loe X (39)
1998 (7) Pat Burrell (1), Eric Valent (1), Jason Michaels (4), Ryan Madson (9), Adam Peterson (13), Geoff Geary (15), Nick Punto (21)
1997 (5**) J.D. Drew * X (1), Randy Wolf * (2), Derrick Turnbow * (5), Tom Jacquez (6), Lance Niekro X (13), Johnny Estrada * (17), Andy Dominique (26)
1996 (2*) Adam Eaton (1), Jimmy Rollins * (2)
1995 (5) Reggie Taylor (1), Dave Coggin (1), Marlon Anderson (2), Jason Kershner (12), Anthony Shumaker (23)
1994 (9) Carlton Loewer (1), Ryan Nye (2), Matt Beech (7), Jason Boyd (8), Wendell Magee (12), Robert Dodd (14), Jose Flores (34), Bronson Heflin (37), Brian Cooper X (39), Joe Winkelsas (47)
1993 (5*) Wayne Gomes (1), Scott Rolen * (2), Rich Hunter (14), Dave Doster (27), Brian O’Connor X (29), Kevin Sefcik (33)
1992 (5) Larry Mitchell (5), Casey Blake (11), Jon Zuber (12), Bobby Estalella (23), Tony Fiore (28)
1991 (7*) Tyler Green * (1), Kevin Stocker (2), Gene Schall (4), Mike Grace (10), Bobby Higginson (18), Curt Schmidt (28), Tim Pugh (29)
1990 (7**) Mike Lieberthal * (1), Joel Adamson (7), Derrick White (9), Gary Bennett (11), Mike Williams * (14), Marvin Benard (20), B.J. Waszgis (21)
1989 (4) Steve Parris (5), Matt Whisenant (18), Willie Smith (19), Steve Bieser (32)
1988 (6*) Pat Combs (1), Tim Mauser (3), Mickey Morandini * (5), Gary Wilson (8), Scott Hatteberg X (12), Tom Marsh (16), Steve Cooke X (53), Jeff Patterson (58)
1987 (8) Kim Batiste (3), Ricky Trlicek (4), Doug Lindsey (6), Donnie Elliott (7), Jim Vatcher (20), Toby Borland (27), Greg McCarthy (36), Andy Carter (37)
1986 (7) Brad Brink (1), Derek Lee X (1), Blas Minor (1), Steve Scarsone (2), Cliff Brantley (2), Rusty Richards (7), Chuck McElroy (8), Erik Bennett X (17), Chuck Knoblauch * X (18), Garland Kiser (24), Jesse Levis X (36)
1985 (6) Bruce Ruffin (2), Kevin Brown X (3), Blas Minor X (5), Wally Ritchie (4), Jason Grimsley (10), John Barfield (17), Dann Howitt (18), Eric Fox X (13), Rick Parker (16)
1984 (7) Pete Smith (1), Mike Jackson (2), Marvin Freeman (2), Jeff Wetherby X (10), Todd Frohwirth (13), Keith Miller (16), Shawn Barton (21), Bob Scanlan (25)
1983 (2) Ricky Jordan (1), Mike Henneman X (2), Ken Patterson X * (3), Kevin Ward (6), Jeff Bronkey X (8), Kevin Campbell X (13), Mike Jackson X (29)
1982 (6) John Russell (1), Ken Jackson (1), Lance McCullers (2), Mike Maddux (5), Mike Cook X (6), Billy Bates X (8), Rick Surhoff (20), Greg Legg (22), Ken Patterson X (29), Bruce Ruffin X (31)
1981 (4*) Kevin Gross * (1), Johnny Abrego (1), Jim Olander (7), Charles Hudson (12), Vince Coleman X * (20), Charlie Kerfeld X (24)
1980 (7*) Tony Ghelfi (1), Kevin Romine X (1), Ken Dowell (3), Ed Wojna (5), Steve Jeltz (9), Mike Brumley X (16), Rocky Childress (21), Marty Decker (23), Mike Capel X (24), Darren Daulton * (25)
1979 (4) Mark Davis (1), Roy Smith (3), Jay Baller (4), Kelly Downs (26), Nelson Santovenia X (29)
1978 (2*) Ed Hearn (4), Dwight Taylor X (11), Ryne Sandberg * (20), Rick Leach X (24)
1977 (4) Scott Munninghoff (1), George Vukovich (4), Greg Walker (20), Jerry Reed (22), Jim Adduci X (28)
1976 (6**) Jack Lazorko (1), Derek Botelho (2), Bob Walk * (3), Len Matuszek (5), Ozzie Virgil * (6), Jeff Lahti X (12), Steve Brown (27)
1975 (3) Barry Bonnell (1), Dickie Noles (4), Jack Lazorko X (8), Dave Baker X (6), Keith Moreland (7), Dave Van Gorder X (9), Rick Leach X (11), Dave Rucker X (19), Allan Ramirez X (23), Roger Slagle X (29)
1974 (6*) Lonnie Smith * (1), Ken Phelps X (1), Kevin Saucier (2), Dan Graham X (3), Warren Brusstar (4), Don McCormack (4), Jim Morrison (5), Mark Clear (8), Derek Botelho X (26)
1973 (9**) Alan Bannister (1), Dick Ruthven (1*), John Stearns (1*), Dan Boitano (1), Todd Cruz (2), Ron Jackson (3), Jim Wright (5), Rick Bosetti (7), Randy Lerch (8)
1972 (3) Larry Christenson (1), Dan Boitano X(1), Tom Underwood (2), Bill Nahorodny (6), Wayne Krenchicki X (8)
1971 (4*) Roy Thomas (1), Dane Iorg (1), Mike Schmidt *(2), Mac Scarce (8)
1970 (5) Dave Downs (6), Fred Andrews (8), Craig Robinson (11), Erskine Thomason (22), Bob Beall (28)
1969 (5*) Mike Anderson (1), Terry Enyart (1), Mike Rogodzinski (2), Rudy Arroyo x (3), Bob Boone * (6), Ron Diorio (16)
1968 (1*) Greg Luzinski (1), Jim Barr X (3), Buddy Schultz X (4)
1967 (2) Scott Reid (2), Darrell Evans X * (3)
1966 (4) Lowell Palmer (1), John Vukovich (1), Steve Arlin (1), Ken Reynolds (4)
1965 (3*) Mike Adamson X (1), Larry Hisle * (2), Bill Champion (3), Terry Harmon (5), Bob Chlupsa X (6), Ken Szotkiewicz X (10), Dick MillsX (13)
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erich —
I think you need a category between major leaguer and All Star. A lot of the ‘major leaguers’ are nothing more than a cup of coffee or an extremely fringe player. Including them doesn’t appear to add anything to a measurement of impact of the draft. Kendrick and Pat Combs not All Stars, but have had an impact. Golson, Carpenter and Mauser have not. I just picked Mauser at random from the past guys who were never serious contributors and it is too late for them to be, since Golson and Carpenter could be major contributors in the future. But a lot of the ‘major leaguers’ who are old enough that their careers are over were cup of coffee or really, really minor contribution guys. Including them in comparisons is more a reflection on a teams September call-up philosophy than on the quality of their draft and instruction.
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I agree, Allentown, but where would you draw the line?
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There is an easy way to determine the impact of a draft on the major leagues.
For position players, you would take that person’s total career major league at bats and divide by 600 (which is the average number of at bats for a full time regular player) that would give you the number of full time seasons for that player. The 600 number is accurate for all position player except catchers (you could use 475 or 500 as the number for players who were primarily
cathers).
It is a little tricker determining full time seasons for Pitchers. For starting pitchers you could divide the total number of career innings by 200 to determine the number of full time seasons. For relievers you could divide total innings by 70 to determine number of full time seasons. But since most pitchers do a bit of both in their careers, you could divide total innings by 120 to determine full time seasons for a pitcher.
Add up the number of full time seasons of all the player in a particular draft and you have effect of that draft.
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Based on the 600 at bats for a major league season. The following is the effective ave yrs in ml for the players drafted by the Phillies in each year from 1999. Ave.Yrs in ML
1999 Brett Myers RHP
1999 Joe Saunders LHP
1999 Marlon Byrd OF 3.3
1999 Frank Brooks LHP
1999 Kameron Loe RHP
1998 Pat Burrell 3B 7.4
1998 Eric Valent OF .7
1998 Jason Michaels OF 3.0
1998 Ryan Madson RHP
1998 Adam Peterson RHP
1998 Geoff Geary RHP
1998 Nick Punto SS 2.9
1997 J.D. Drew OF 6.7
1997 Randy Wolf LHP
1997 Derrick Turnbow RHP
1997 Tom Jacquez LHP
1997 Lance Niekro SS .8
1997 Johnny Estrada C 3.5
1997 Andy Dominique 3B .0
1996 Adam Eaton RHP
1996 Jimmy Rollins SS 8.6
1995 Reggie Taylor OF
1995 Dave Coggin RHP
1995 Marlon Anderson 2B 5.3
1995 Jason Kershner LHP
1995 Anthony Shumaker LHP
1994 Carlton Loewer RHP
1994 Ryan Nye RHP
1994 Matt Beech LHP
1994 Jason Boyd RHP
1994 Wendell Magee OF 1.8
1994 Robert Dodd LHP
1994 Jose Flores 3B .0
1994 Bronson HeflinRHP
1994 Brian CooperRHP
1993 Wayne GomesRHP
1993 Scott Rolen 3B 9.7
1993 Rich Hunter RHP
1993 David Doster2B .3
1993 Kevin Sefcik SS 1.3
1992 Larry MitchellRHP
1992 Casey Blake SS 5.3
1992 Jon Zuber LHP .2
1992 Bobby Estalella C 1.9
1992 Tony Fiore RHP
1991 Tyler Green RHP
1991 Kevin Stocker SS 4.6
1991 Gene Schall OF .2
1991 Mike Grace RHP
1991 Bobby Higginson OF 8.2
1990 Mike Lieberthal C 8.9
1990 Joel Adamson LHP
1990 Derrick White 3B .2
1990 Gary Bennett C 3.6
1990 Mike Williams RHP
1990 Marvin Benard OF 4.4
1989 Steve Parris RHP
1989 Matt Whisenant LHP
1989 Steve Bieser OF .1
1988 Pat Combs LHP
1988 Tim Mauser RHP
1988 Mickey Morandini SS 7.6
1988 Scott Hatteberg C 8.9
1988 Tom Marsh OF .4
1988 Paul Fletcher RHP
1988 Steve Cooke LHP
1988 Jeff Patterson RHP
1987 Kim Batiste SS 1.1
1987 Ricky Trlicek RHP
1987 Doug Lindsey C .0
1987 Donnie Elliott RHP
1987 Jim Vatcher OF .2
1987 Toby Borland RHP
1987 Greg McCarthyLHP
1987 Andy Carter LHP
1986 Brad Brink RHP
1986 Cliff Brantley RHP
1986 Chuck McElroy LHP
1986 Erik Bennett RHP
1986 Chuck KnoblauchSS 10.6
1986 Garland KiserLHP
1986 Jesse Levis C 1.4
1986 Derek Lee INF .1
1986 Steve ScarsoneINF 1.4
1986 Chuck MaloneRHP
1986 Rusty RichardsRHP
1986 Blas Minor RHP
1985 Bruce Ruffin LHP
1985 Wally Ritchie LHP
1985 Jason GrimsleyRHP
1985 Rick Parker SS .4
1985 Kevin Brown LHP
1985 Blas Minor RHP
1985 Dann Howitt RHP
1984 Pete Smith RHP
1984 Marvin FreemanRHP
1984 Todd FrohwirthRHP
1984 Keith Miller SS .1
1984 Shawn BartonLHP
1984 Bob Scanlan RHP
1984 Mike JacksonOF .0
1983 Ricky Jordan 1B 3.5
1983 Kevin Ward OF .4
1983 Jeff Bronkey RHP
1983 Kevin Campbell RHP
1983 Tom Newell RHP
1983 Mike JacksonRHP
1983 Mike HennemanRHP
1983 Ken PattersonLHP
1982 John Russell C 1.8
1982 Lance McCullers RHP
1982 Mike Maddux RHP
1982 Mike Cook RHP
1982 Billy Bates 2B .1
1982 Greg Legg SS .0
1982 Ken Patterson LHP
1982 Bruce Ruffin LHP
1982 Ken Jackson SS .0
1982 Rick Surhoff RHP
1981 Johnny Abrego RHP
1981 Jim Olander OF .0
1981 Charles Hudson RHP
1981 Vince Coleman OF 9.0
1981 Charlie Kerfeld RHP
1981 Kevin Gross RHP
1980 Steve Jeltz SS 2.9
1980 Mike Brumley SS 1.1
1980 Rocky Childress RHP
1980 Marty Decker RHP
1980 Mike Capel RHP
1980 Darren Daulton C 7.6
1980 Ed Wojna RHP
1980 Tony Ghelfi RHP
1979 Roy Smith RHP
1979 Jay Baller RHP
1979 Kelly Downs RHP
1979 Nelson Santovenia3B 1.5
1979 Mark Davis LHP
1978 Ed Hearn C .4
1978 Dwight Taylor OF .0
1978 Ryne Sandberg SS 14.0
1978 Rick Leach 1B 2.9
1977 Scott Munninghoff RHP
1977 George Vukovich OF 2.7
1977 Greg Walker C 6.0
1977 Jerry Reed RHP
1977 Jim Adduci OF .2
1976 Len Matuszek OF 1.4
1976 Ozzie Virgil C 3.8
1976 Joe Charboneau OF 1.1
1976 Bob Walk RHP
1976 Jack Lazorko RHP
1976 Derek Botelho RHP
1976 Bob Walk RHP
1975 Dickie Noles RHP
1975 Keith Moreland 3B 9.6
1975 Dave Van Gorder C .9
1975 Rick Leach OF 2.9
1975 Dave Rucker LHP
1975 Allan Ramirez RHP
1975 Jack Lazorko 3B
1975 Barry Bonnell OF 5.1
1974 Lonnie Smith OF 8.6
1974 Kevin Saucier LHP
1974 Don McCormack C .0
1974 Jim Morrison 3B 5.6
1974 Mark Clear RHP
1974 Derek Botelho SS .0
1974 Ken Phelps OF 3.1
1974 Dan Graham 3B .7
1974 Warren Brusstar RHP
1973 John Stearns C 5.6
1973 Todd Cruz SS 2.5
1973 Jim Wright RHP
1973 Manny Seoane RHP
1973 Randy Lerch LHP
1973 Dan Boitano RHP
1973 Alan Bannister SS 5.0
1973 Rick Bosetti 2B 2.6
1973 Dick Ruthven RHP
1972 Larry Christenson RHP
1972 Tom Underwood LHP
1972 Bill Nahorodny C 1.8
1972 Wayne Krenchicki SS 1.8
1972 Dan Boitano RHP
1971 Roy Thomas RHP
1971 Mike Schmidt SS 13.9
1971 Mac Scarce LHP
1970 Dave Downs RHP
1970 Fred Andrews SS .0
1970 Craig Robinson SS 1.2
1970 Bob Beall OF
1969 Mike Anderson 1B 2.5
1969 Mike Rogodzinski OF .2
1969 Mike Wallace LHP
1969 Bob Boone 3B 15.3
1969 Ron Diorio RHP
1969 Rudy Arroyo LHP
1968 Greg Luzinski 1B 10.8
1968 Buddy Schultz LHP
1968 Jim Barr RHP
1967 Scott Reid OF .1
1967 Darrell Evans 3B 15.0
1966 Ken Reynolds LHP
1966 Steve Arlin RHP
1966 John Vukovich 3B .9
1966 Lowell Palmer RHP
1965 Mike Adamson RHP
1965 Larry Hisle OF 7.0
1965 Bill Champion RHP
1965 Terry Harmon SS 1.9
1965 Bob Chlupsa RHP
1965 Ken Szotkiewicz 2B .1
1965 Dick Mills RHP
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I think that you can’t say a team drafts well based on players who have came up. For example the phillies in 65 did you see the players who came up for a bad team. Only larry hisle was worth anything the rest only made a bad team.1966-70 one player luzinski. It’s like say the pirates are all home grown. they stinks so how good are the player they are bringing up.
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NE PA PHILLY & erich:
Nice work. Looks like you guys put some time into those lists. However wasn’t this exactly what James was warning us about? Just because certain players don’t make it to the majors doesn’t mean it was that bad. Look at the 2 pitchers we sent to the Ms for Moyer. Neither has done anything yet Moyer has pitched well for us.
Buchholz, Astacio, and Duckworth did net us Billy Wagner and don’t forget Iguchi for Dubee and Schlitter for Eyre.
While many of those guys have not reached the majors or did not have long productive years they netted us peices to make our team better.
Players reaching the majors is just one important cog in the the overall goal of the minors, also being used as fodder for better players is another one.
Still, awesome work by both you guys. I have already copied and pasted it and will look back at it many times I am sure.
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The Bill James win share system is another good cumulative way to assess the value in each year’s draft. I also would take out unsigned players as those flyer picks really should not impact the assessment. They are usually protection against not signing the top picks.
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You mean the team will draft players with no intention of signing them. Only will try if top picks don’t sign. That is crazy to me .
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the trick is finding a G. M dumber then you
ps WAYNE H. did a lot of strange drafting when we owned
the MARLINS. SIGNABILITY was the key word as long as it looked good.
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this is the way i looked at the draft. they drafted a lot of high ceiling guys which we don’t have very many in our system currently, plus they spent money to sign a lot of those guys. i think all in all it is a good sign from the front office that there willing to take some chances, spend some money and not get caught in slot recommendations.
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