Part 1: Rounds 30-50
Part 2: Rounds 20-29
Part 3: Rounds 11-19
Part 4: Rounds 1-10
Part 5: Overview of the draft/comparison to last 2 drafts

We’ll continue on with the draft recap. I wanted to highlight a couple questions asked in Part 1 here before moving on.

* On Cosart’s delivery. An over the top delivery isn’t good or bad, it depends on your arm and how your body works. Someone posted a ton of info on the physical anatomy of the arm and how it relates to the delivery, and that everyone is different. The issue with Cosart is the hitch in his delivery, which can throw off timing and lead to command/control issues. The video shows him pitching in 2007, I haven’t seen video of him pitching in 2008, so I have no idea if he’s altered his mechanics at all. The Phillies will most likely tinker with and make adjustments to his delivery too. At this point, you’re banking on the arm strength, and throwing in the low 90’s as a 17 year old speaks to his arm strength.

* On age/development. It is certainly true that guys from cold weather areas and colleges often are tougher to gauge, and in many cases, are late bloomers, simply because they don’t get to play as much baseball as kids from California and Florida. This is a bigger issue with prep prospects, less so with college guys. Its the reason that Julian Sampson is still considered quite raw, as he came from the state of Washington, and got considerably fewer reps in high school than a guy like Kyle Drabek.

Now, onto the next batch of picks.

R29 (886) — Keon Broxton, 3B — Lakeland HS (Florida)
[Did Not Sign — Santa Fe CC]
[BA = 61st in FLA, PGC = 131st prepster in US]

Info: Broxton was one of the high ceiling fliers that teams take in this part of the draft. He originally had a commitment to Florida Atlantic to play wide receiver, but he switched before the draft and locked in to Santa Fe Community College, giving the Phillies possibly a greater chance of signing him. Of course, we know they chose not to.

Take: Broxton was on my short list, along with Cosart, Marrs, and Weber of guys I wanted the Phillies to consider with their “big bonus” after the 10th round. I’ve detailed that I like the Cosart pick, so there’s not a lot to really complain about. The 29th round is certainly still the place where you aren’t reasonably expecting to sign high ceiling prep prospects.

R28 (856) — Jordan Ellis, RHP — Villanova
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 6th in PA, PGC = ??]

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Info: PA had a generally weak crop of prospects this year, but Ellis still ranked 6th on BA’s list. BA had him pegged as a guy that could potentially sneak into the first 15 rounds based on his raw arm strength, so it was a mild surprise he lasted this long, even as a college senior. Here’s BA’s quick take on him

Villanova righthander Jordan Ellis has battled arm injuries during his career and struggled as a senior, going 3-6, 5.72. Still, he could be a senior sign in the top 15 rounds thanks to a fastball that reaches 93 mph, a fringe-average slider and feel for a changeup. He has a physical 6-foot-2, 198-pound frame

— BA Draft Preview

Take: Ellis obviously disappointed his senior season, but the Phillies, in what would be an obvious trend in 2008, liked Ellis because of the raw arm strength. He battled wildness in college, and it again came back in Williamsport, but he does appear to have swing and miss potential. The standard caveats apply, he was 22 pitching in short season, and he’s nothing more than a possible middle reliever in the future. But he does have arm strength. And that’s tough to teach. He’ll obviously need to move quickly if he’s going to ever materialize as a big leaguer, but he should get a chance at least. If he can even refine one secondary pitch he might turn out to be a useful part. In the 28th round, finding useful parts is always a good thing.

R27 (826) — Chad Poe, RHP — Bossier Parish CC (Louisiana)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 15th in LA, PGC = 156th best JuCo prospect]

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Info: If you look at Poe’s stat line, I don’t have his 2008 JuCo stats. I searched their website, as well as the main JuCo website, and I could only find stats from one player on his team in 2008, and wasn’t able to find his numbers. If someone can hunt them down, I’ll update them when I put together his player profile. He was on the radar, but wasn’t viewed as a high caliber prospect prior to the draft. The Pirates took him in the 40th round of the 2007 draft, and he had a commitment to Southern Miss, giving him a bit more leverage.

Take: Not really sure what to make of this pick. He wasn’t pitching at a JuCo powerhouse, he didn’t put up eye popping numbers as a freshman, and wasn’t highly touted. His debut was less than stellar, though he is only 20. I wish I had more info on his raw stuff. Because he’s a bit younger than guys like Ellis he’ll have more time to show what he can do. But at this point, I wouldn’t hold my breath. This is still really “if you get something out of them, great” territory. The Phillies showed they were willing to grab more than just 4 year seniors, dipping into the JuCo ranks as well as other avenues, so that’s something.

R26 (796) — Ryan Bergh, RHP — Old Dominion
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = ??]

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Info: Bergh, a 4 year senior, spent 3 seasons at Old Dominion after one season at Pensecola Junior College. I wasn’t able to readily locate his JuCo numbers, but they probably aren’t all that important in the grand scheme. He saved his best season for last, logging a career high in innings as well as his lowest ERA. He didn’t miss a lot of bats, thats obviously a big red flag, but he limited hitters to a .257 batting average and did post 5 complete games. You can read more here.

Take: Tough to get excited here. Bergh was 23 years old pitching in the GCL. Think about that, most of the guys he was facing were 17-19 years old, thats like you being 18 and dunking a basketball on a 7 foot rim over your 12 year old cousin. He managed 9 saves, as well as better K and BB numbers than he flashed in college, though he was definitely facing better competition in college, at least more advanced hitters. I wouldn’t expect much out of Bergh going forward, don’t want to call this a wasted pick, especially since he had a nice debut, but I don’t see much here.

R25 (766) — Daniel Edwards, RHP — Kansas State
[Unsigned — No remaining eligibility]
[BA = 16th in Kansas, PGC = ??]

Info: Edwards, a college senior, can sign any time up until one week prior to next year’s draft, after which I believe he’ll become a free agent. He was ranked 14th in Kansas by BA in 2007, so his stock seemed to remain somewhat consistent.

Take: Its somewhat puzzling that Edwards hasn’t signed. At this point, my only real guess is that he’s carrying an injury and the Phillies decided not to sign him or he just decided he didn’t want to play baseball professionally. Or they offered him no bonus, and he feels like he can get something if he waits and becomes a free agent. So I have no idea. He had a nice career as a college closer for a decent program, his opponent BA was very low, he generated swings and misses, but I have no clue about his raw stuff.

R24 (736) — Korey Noles, LHP — Columbus State (Georgia)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = ??]

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Info: Noles, a 4 year senior out of a small school, wasn’t really on the radar heading into the draft. He wasn’t ranked by BA in 2007 either, so I have no real information on him. You can read his college profile information here, if you’re so inclined.

Take: Korey, who apparently also goes by David (B-R, minorleaguesplits), was a workhorse for Division II Columbus State, throwing over 230 innings in his final 2 seasons, including 11 complete games. He posted better than a 4:1 K to BB ratio his senior year, and not surprisingly, he pitched fairly well in his pro debut at Williamsport. Of course, he was 22 and pitching against much younger hitters. Information on his stuff is sparse, so I have no clue how to really project him going forward. Like the previous few guys, because he doesn’t have much of a scouting profile, you don’t expect a whole lot. His good college numbers give you some glimmer of something, but its probably just that, a glimmer. Anything out of him is gravy at this point, and there’s reason to think he could at least be an org guy at worst.

R23 (706) — Brandon Haislett, OF — Hawaii
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 4th in AK/HI area, PGC = ??]

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Info: Haislet, a senior out of Hawaii, got some run from Baseball America in their pre-draft reports. Prior to playing in Hawaii he played JuCo ball, I don’t have those numbers readily available though. Here was the info from BA

Outfielder Brandon Haislet could be an excellent senior sign this year if he can show intensity to match his tools. He’s physically gifted, runs well enough to play a solid center field and throws enough to move to a corner if needed. Haislett has raw power but stiff actions at the plate. He has a good approach at the plate, ranking third in the Western Athletic Conference in batting and first with a .482 on-base percentage, but needs one on the bases to take better advantage of his speed.

— BA Draft Preview

Take: Haislet had an intriguing profile, he obviously needed to work on his base running, but the OB% and the emerging power his senior year were good signs. It didn’t translate in his debut though, where he hit just .240 with almost zero power. He did manage to go 12 for 14 in SB, so something went right there. He drew 21 walks in 258 plate appearances, which is something, but not a whole lot for a college senior in the New York Penn League. His college numbers his senior year really don’t resemble what he did his junior year. So the question is, are we getting the 2007 version next year, or will we see him utilize his good tools package like he did in his senior year at Hawaii? I have no real idea. He needs to make more contact, obviously, and draw more walks. He turned 23 in late August, so time is not on his side. He’s going to need a monster year in 2009, as he’ll likely end up Clearwater, best case scenario, and he’d still be way too old for that level as well. His debut was very disappointing, but as a 4 year senior from a non-powerhouse, it was tough to get too excited anyway. The Phillies could have gone with another pitcher here with obvious deficiencies, but they elected for the hitter. I guess he could maybe end up being a useful career minor leaguer, if everything aligns, maybe a 5th OF, but the odds are very long.

R22 (676) — Daniel Hargrave, 2B — UNC Wilmington (North Carolina)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 32nd in NC, PGC = ??]

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Info: Hargrave, another 4 year senior, was coming off a big time senior season in which he hit 18 HR and slugged .628. Maybe more impressively, he hit 12 HR in only 139 AB his sophomore season, so there was clear juice in his bat. BA ranked him in their Top 35 in the state of NC, but he wasn’t a prominent name.

Take: As I mentioned, he has a lot of juice for a middle infielder, but that college success didn’t carry over to the pros, where he hit only .179 in 173 AB’s for Williamsport. He did manage 11 extra base hits, but that is quickly nullified by drawing only 7 walks to 54 K’s. Hargrave lacks secondary skills, so his bat would have to carry him, and at this point, it doesn’t look like its going to carry him far. In the 22nd round, you kind of want to maybe find a usable player. Looking at his college career, obviously the Phillies were targeting him due to his raw power. However, there may have been warning signs. His walk rate did spike up his senior year (29), but he drew a combined 28 walks in his sophomore and junior seasons. Free swingers without secondary skills (ie, lots of speed, excellent defense) generally don’t make it very far when they can’t make consistent contact. This looks like a busted pick, but you’re still not in the “man, that was a big miss” range.

R21 (646) — Sean Grieve, LHP — William and Mary (Virginia)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 21st in VA, PGC = ??]

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Info: Grieve, another 4 year senior, was close to the Top 20 prospects in Virginia, but BA did not elaborate on his merits in their wrapup. He served as a swingman in his junior and sophomore seasons, but worked exclusively in relief his senior year, with better results, to some degree at least.

Take: Kind of an odd one here. No doubt the Phillies saw that his performance improved when he worked exclusively out of the bullpen, and maybe they saw something in his mechanics that might help him improve further. He struggled with his control, walking 93 batters in his sophomore and junior seasons, but toned it down a bit his senior year, walking only 23 in 53 IP. The control issues reared their ugly head at Williamsport, where he walked 17 in only 22 innings. Batters may have been scared, because they struck out 24 times and hit only .235 off of him. If I knew more about his raw stuff or was able to see him throw in person, I might have more to say. But until he learns to throw strikes, there isn’t much to see here. He turns 24 in December. The odds him ever seeing the majors are, to put it nicely, slim. Not a big fan of this pick, but nothing to get worked up over.

R20 (616) — Eryk McConnell, RHP — NC State (North Carolina)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = 37th in NC, PGC = ??]

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Info: McConnell is an interesting guy. He started his sophomore year with mixed results. He showed decent K/BB numbers, but gave up hits in bunches and posted a modest 4.50 ERA. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his Junior season, and the numbers were much better. He limited the hits and walks and allowed only 1 HR, resulting in a 1.72 ERA. On the strength of his Junior year, he was used as a swing man his senior season, and the results were not pretty. He didn’t miss any bats and was much more hittable. Here is his scouting bureau video

McConnell throws mostly fastballs and curveballs here. His velocity sits in the 88-91 range, nothing that catches your eye. His delivery is fairly simple, but with a little bit of effort on his follow through and a slight head jerk, which could lead to him losing command of his pitches. His fastball is straight and his curveball is soft and loopy.

Take: I’m failing to really see the upside here. McConnell had one good season bookended by two disappointing seasons. His raw stuff, based on the video above, isn’t really eye catching. Unless I’m not seeing something here, ie, a velocity spike or the addition of a pitch not shown on the video, I’m not really excited. In his pro debut, he limited the walks (only 7) and missed bats at a higher rate than he did in college, which gives some cause for optimism. But that goes away for me when you consider he was a senior and is now 23. There’s no projection here, the present stuff doesn’t appear to be great. Maybe he turns into Geoff Geary, but for me, that’s kind of his best case. Not a busted pick, but I’m not really expecting much here.

**R20-29 wrap**

This concludes the wrapup of picks 20 through 29. To be honest, not a whole lot here to get excited about. The best prospect of the lot was Broxton, who of course did not sign. The rest was really a mixed bag. McConnell and Ellis showed decent peripherals, Bergh blew away much much younger competition, Poe struggled, Hargrave and Haislet disappointed, and Grieve is kind of a mixed bag as well. The Edwards no-sign is still kind of a head scratcher, he’s somewhat intriguing, but as of now, he’s not in the picture. As I mentioned a few times above, you’re not expecting to hit on many of these guys, and if they don’t develop you didn’t really lose out on anything, unless you just spend like a madman with your overall budget. In this section of picks, the Phillies took a bunch of older guys. These players will have to move real fast if they are going to be considered legit prospects. A guy like Bergh really should just go to Reading. Him pitching to Low A hitters really won’t tell us anything.

We’ll pick up with the money picks in Rounds 10-19 tomorrow.