My original plan was to start by giving an overview of the draft, talking about the overall numbers and how they are different from the last two drafts, but I decided to kind of change course a bit. Instead, I’ll save that summary until the end of the line, and instead I’ll start at the back of the draft and work my way forward. I’ll go round by round, giving my thoughts on each pick. Since lots of the late round guys didn’t sign, I’m going to do the first few installments in big chunks. This is my plan;

Part 1: Rounds 30-50
Part 2: Rounds 20-29
Part 3: Rounds 11-19
Part 4: Rounds 1-10
Part 5: Overview of the draft/comparison to last 2 drafts

There is plenty to discuss here in each section. So lets get to it.

I guess the best place to start is to look at how I evaluate each draft, each pick, and then how that adds up to the big picture; a draft grade or rating or something of the sort. The popular phrase that you hear thrown around (mainly from people who don’t place a lot of importance on the draft) is that “its a crapshoot”, and while there is some truth to that, I think its a disingenious statement. If you avidly follow the draft, you know that the same teams seem to have the best drafts every year, and usually it has nothing to do with their draft position. Sure, a team can grab a no brainer guy in the first 5 picks, but how does that team do after the first round, after the 5th round, after the 10th round? When you are placing 1500 names on a board and ranking them, obviously a lot of luck is invovled. You can scout a guy 100 times, have the best read on him possible, and then he can blow out his elbow 3 weeks into his pro career, but if he had no mechanical problems prior to the draft, how much more planning could you have done to avoid that? But saying all of that, it isn’t luck that the same teams regularly have the best drafts. Money plays a part, but so does evaluation, trusting your scouting network, hiring and retaining the best area guys, and then executing your draft day strategy.

From my perspective, as a Phillies fan, I’m realistic about the Phillies budgeting for the draft. The Phillies are not living in the high rent district with Boston, the Yankees, and now the Nationals to a degree, and while they could be, all I’ve asked is that they not skimp on bonuses, especially in the first 10 rounds. Its great to land the big late round flier, but its just as good to take quality guys in the first 10 rounds and pay them the commiserate bonuses instead of overdrafting below average players and signing them for pennies. Because of the odds against any prospect making the majors, to me the draft is about process. If you approach it with the goal of taking as much talent as you can reasonably afford, signing as much of that talent as possible, then really the rest is out of your control. As I mentioned above, injuries are really tough to predict, and no matter how much background work you do, its impossible to know how a 17 year old kid will adjust to life in pro baseball, away from his family and friends. But if you do your homework, you take appropriate talent, and then sign that talent, thats how the draft should be evaluated. Hindsight is 20/20, but hindsight isn’t all that valuable in the case of evaluating the process. The process is what is important.

So, with that meandering opening, here is the format for my evaluation. I’ll give you the scouting details on the player, his college record (as much of it as I could track down), his pro debut numbers, and then some quick thoughts on each pick. I’ll also include video where applicable. If there are any errors with the statistics, please let me know. I used each team’s web site, which seems to be more accurate than the stats given on the NCAA’s website, even though its supposed to be automated. But anyway, lets get going.

R50 (1498) — Josh Hake, RHP — Park (Missouri)
[Did Not Sign]
[Unranked by BA and PG Crosschecker]

Info: Hake, a junior at Park University in Arizona, didn’t sign. Baseball America listed Park as being in Arizona, but I went and tracked down some info, and the school is definitely in Parkville Missouri. He put up impressive numbers at Park, and prior to that for two seasons at Pima Community College, but the Midlands Collegiate Athletic Conference isn’t exactly a baseball powerhouse. As a senior next season he’ll have even less leverage. Since no site has any kind of scouting info on him, include PG Crosschecker which ranks like thousands of kids, I’m assuming that his stuff isn’t top notch.

Take: Obviously this pick was just to throw a bone to the area guy in Missouri. Probably not much of a loss here.

R49 (1471) — Michael Russo, RHP — The Hun School (New Jersey)
[Did Not Sign — NC State]
[BA = 14th overall in NJ, PGC = 261st prepster in USA, 7th in NJ]

Info: Russo made some noise after the draft, saying that even though he went in the 49th round he’d consider signing if the money was right. The money obviously wasn’t, so he didn’t sign. He is now at NC State, and it will be interesting to see how he develops. He’ll likely be higher on draft lists in 3 years barring injury, and he’ll be facing good college competition at NC State.

Take: It was interesting that Russo made noise about possibly signing, though it never seemed all that realistic. He did seem to have an interest in the Phillies, that was likely the reason they took a flier on him, but buying him out of his college commitment might have been a bit of a stretch. You never expect to sign a 49th pick with this type of profile for reasonable money.

R48 (1444) — Mark Ginther, SS — Jenks HS (Oklahoma)
[Did Not Sign — Oklahoma State]
[BA = 8th in OK, PGC = 112th best prepster in USA, 2nd in OK]

Info: Ginther was another obvious flier, as he had a verbal commitment to OK State. Some scouting reports…

Mark Ginther quarterbacked Jenks High to the last two 6-A state football titles, leading the state’s passers with 2,467 yards and throwing for 15 touchdowns last fall. The athletic 6-foot-3, 185-pounder has a sound swing and approach to go with power potential, and he has been clocked as high as 91 mph on the mound. He’s a possible replacement for two-way star Jordy Mercer at Oklahoma State, but Ginther isn’t as smooth on defense and projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop.

— BA Draft Preview

Mark Ginther is a 2008 SS/P with a 6’2”, 175 lb. frame from Tulsa, OK who attends Jenks HS. He has a lean, athletic build and lots of projection. Ginther looked excellent during infield drills and batting practice. Ginther is a top level QB on the Oklahoma 6A football champions as well as a top baseball prospect. Defensively, Ginther showed fluid infield actions during drills with very good body control and a quick strong arm. His range and arm strength profile best to third base in the future. At the plate, Ginther took a very good BP and showed a simple, quick approach with plus hand strength and crushed line drives to all fields During the games he didn’t get into a good hitting groove, but it’s all there. We know from seeing him in the past that he’s one of the top young hitters around. Ginther also pitched and was 87-88 mph on his fast ball from an extended overhand release point. Last year it was Kozma from Oklahoma who went first round, is Ginther next? He is a good student and has a verbal commitment to Oklahoma State.

— PG Crosschecker, 2007

Take: Short of them offering him a ton of money, there was no way he was going to sign. Like Russo, this may just be a case of throwing him a bone, or trying to grease the wheels for a future selection, ala Vance Worley this season. A post deadline article mentions the Phillies made a generous offer, but it wasn’t enough, so he’s off to school. Again, in this region of the draft, you’re taking a chance, a slim one, and hoping a guy just really changes his mind and wants to play pro ball. Expectation levels here are near zero.

R47 (1417) — Nathan Fike, LHP — Potomac State Junior College (West Virginia)
[Signed, bonus not disclosed]
[BA = 12th in DE/MD/WV/DC region, PGC = ??]

large version here.

Info: Fike got a brief mention by BA, but PGC didn’t seem to give him much consideration unless I’m not seeing it, their website is kind of buggy in terms of the draft coverage from 2008.

Take: Fike had a great season at Potomac, showing excellent control and missing a lot of bats. His pro debut wasn’t as smooth, especially given his age and that he was in the GCL. He may wash out quickly and never be heard from again, but it can never hurt to sign a guy in this part of the draft on the cheap (I’m presuming, no one reported the bonus that I found) and see what you get. He should get one more season at least to see if there is anything there.

R46 (1390) — Giovany Soto, LHP — Advanced Central College HS (Puerto Rico)
[Did Not Sign]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = ??]

Info: I have absolutely no clue who this kid is. Baseball America has no idea, PGC doesn’t seem to know either. So, ok.

Take: Lets move on.

R45 (1363) — Justin Zumwalde, 1B — Subino HS (Arizona)
[Did Not Sign — Pima Community College]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = ??]

Info: I know nothing about Zumwalde either. He had a commitment to Pima CC, which I’m assuming is where he’s now headed. He hit .495 with 9 HR in his senior year of HS, so he looks like he has some ability. He’ll re-enter the draft in 2009.

Take: Well, I don’t know. Should be interesting to see where he ends up going in next year’s draft.

R44 (1335) — Charlie Law, RHP — Mainland Regional HS (New Jersey)
[Did Not Sign — Rutgers]
[BA = 11th in NJ, PGC = 146th prep prospect in US]

Info: Law was a real intriguing arm, but he had a strong commitment to Rutgers. Some scouting info

Likewise, righthander Charlie Law’s frame stands out more than his stuff, though he lacks Desclafani’s feel for pitching. Law is growing into his 6-foot-7, 225-pound frame, and he has boatloads of projection, but his attentions have been split between baseball and basketball in high school, so he remains raw. Law works in the 87-89 mph range and shows feel for a changeup and curveball, but he could use quite a bit of seasoning in college at Rutgers.

— BA Draft Preview

Take: Law is one of those guys that you take, and if something goes wrong at the top of the draft, you offer him similar money to the guy who won’t sign. He has obvious talent, maybe not Top 3 rounds talent right now, but he should see his stock rise quite a bit after 3 years at a decent baseball school.

R43 (1306) — Bryan Frew, OF — University of Nebraska-Omaha
[Signed, Bonus undisclosed]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = ??]

large version here.

Info: Frew was largely ignored by the major publications, playing at a small school in a non-baseball powerhouse conference.

Take: Now we have something to discuss. Frew had a solid 4 year college career, albeit at a small program in a non-powerhouse conference. The two things that jump out are the consistent walk rate and general control of the strikezone, as well as the power surge his senior year. He hit 10 HR total in his first 3 years of college, and hit 11 in his senior campaign. He also swiped 35 bags at a very high success rate (88%) to cap things off. He doesn’t have a huge frame (6’1, 195), but he appears to have a decent skill set. His pro debut wasn’t impressive, considering his age to level, but he continued to draw his share of walks. He did his share of swinging and missing, and he wasn’t nearly as aggressive on the bases as he was in his senior season at Nebraska. At 22 going on 23, coming off a relatively inauspicious pro debut, he’s probably not going to amount to anything than squad filler. He logged time at both 2B and in the OF at Williamsport, and he’d obviously be a bit more useful if he could play a credible 2B.

R42 (1276) — Mike Bolsenbroek, RHP — Ageldoorn (The Netherlands)
[Signed, Bonus undisclosed]
[BA = unranked, PGC = ??]

large version here

Info: Bolsenbroek has certainly been around the block at this point. He was drafted in both 2006 (41st RD) and 2007 (26th RD) by the White Sox, but chose not to sign. He pitched at Santa Ana Junior College for two years, then went to Germany for a season, where he posted great numbers. As far as I know, he’s the only player taken from Europe in the 2008 draft. This site, which covers European leagues, mentions that his fastball hit 96 mph, but that seems like 4th hand info. He’s very tall (6’8, 210 lbs), so its not that hard to imagine him throwing hard, but he’s a guy we could use some first hand info on.

Take: His JuCo numbers were significantly worse than his 1 year in the German league, but there’s no way I could try to compare the German league he pitched in with Junior College level baseball. He obviously has size on his side, which should allow him to drive the ball down in the zone. His sample size in his US debut is way too small to draw conclusions, but he did struggle with control a bit this season, after two seasons of stellar control at Santa Ana. He’s definitely an interesting arm, and this signing kind of came out of nowhere and had to be seen as somewhat of a surprise.

R41 (1246) — Mike Petello, OF — Scottsdale CC (Arizona)
[Did Not Sign]
[BA = unranked, PGC = ??]

Info: Petello is an interesting case. According to The Baseball Cube, this is the same Mike Petello the Phillies drafted in 2006. Petello played 2008 at Scottsdale Community College, hitting .377 with 15 2B and 10 HR in 183 AB. According to the Cube, he was at Arizona State as well, but I can’t find college stats for him if he was there.

Take: This is the second time the Phillies drafted him, its kind of curious that he didn’t sign. Not that its a big issue at this point in the draft, just kind of strange.

R40 (1216) — Daniel Marrs, RHP — James River HS (Virginia)
[Did Not Sign — Wake Forest]
[BA = 5th in VA, top prepster, PGC = 37th prepster in US]

Info: Marrs was a very highly regarded prospect, but had a very strong commitment to Wake Forest, and the Phillies (from the info given to me) didn’t really make an attempt to sign him, probably determining they couldn’t realistically sign him for what it would take. Some scouting reports

The high school talent in the state comes mainly from the mound. Righthander Daniel Marrs is the top prep prospect from the state but is known as an arm strength guy in need of polish. He’s a projectable 6-foot-3, 200 pounds and was an Aflac All-American last summer, and he pitches in the low 90s but has been seen up to 96 mph. He lacks an average secondary pitch. He throws a curveball and split-finger but both lack consistency and command. Marrs is committed to Wake Forest, where he will likely end up in the fall.

— BA Draft Preview

Marrs was ranked one of the very top right-handers in high school baseball before suffering a minor injury late this spring. It is a similar type problem that shut down Tim Melville two years ago and did not require surgery. In fact, Marrs felt like his arm was back to 100% during last week’s Aflac Classic. He will be back on the mound very soon and has targeted the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter Florida (late October) as his first big event. No question he will be a big focus at that event because Marrs is one of the best arms in next year’s draft class. We, once again, have been very lucky that we have seen him so many times before this summer. And it’s all been very good, to say the least. He is a mid 90’s type with three good pitches and very good command of all three. He has the right frame and arm action to project very high. Marrs, just like the other players who couldn’t actually play in the Aflac game, worked out and helped in every way possible in San Diego . Watching him warm up in the outfield before the game was very encouraging. He is yet another example of why these young men and Aflac All Americans are so highly regarded both on and off the field.

— PG Crosschecker, 2007 Aflac All America Showcase

Take: Marrs would have been a big time sign, but it appears that the Phillies knew they were up against it with his strong commitment to Wake Forest. It would have more than likely taken first 3 rounds type money to get him signed. He’ll be pitching at a good baseball school in a good conference, and will likely be heard from on the Cape before he re-enters the draft. This is the type of guy you dream on when he’s drafted, but you know he’s a long shot.

R39 (1186) — Joe Pond, RHP — Judge Memorial HS (Utah)
[Did Not Sign — Utah]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = 1,311th prepster in US]

Info: Pond was unranked by Baseball America in the shallow Utah talent pool, and PGC wasn’t very high on him either, obviously. They provided this

Joe Pond is a 2008 RHP/MIF with a 6’1”, 175 lb. frame from Centerville, UT, who attends Judge Memorial HS. Pond was named to the Top Prospect Team. Pond has a nice body with a lean and projectable frame. On the mound he throws from a 3/4 arm slot with a loose arm. He has quickness in his arm that should allow him to throw harder in the future. Pond throws downhill to the plate with a fastball that topped out at 86 mph. He also mixes in a 77 mph curveball that is a potential strike out pitch for him, and an 81 mph cutter. Pond has good upside on the mound. At the plate he is a left handed hitter with a nice swing. He has bat speed through the hitting zone with a line drive swing plane. Keeps his hands inside the ball and he gets good plate coverage giving him the ability to hit to all fields. Defensively he has nice actions in the middle of the diamond showing nice footwork. Pond also showed range and body control that will allow him to stay in the middle infield. He is a must follow, and an excellent student as well.

— PGC, 2007 Sunshine West Showcase

Take: PGC didn’t give any updates on his velocity in 2008, but it seems like he’s the type of pitcher that will need the 3 years, not only from a developmental standpoint regarding his pitches, but to fill out his frame and add velocity. He had a commitment to Utah, and it doesn’t seem like he was ever likely to sign.

R38 (1156) — Jarred Cosart, RHP — Clear Creek HS (Texas)
[Signed, $550K]
[BA = 52nd in Texas, PGC = 65th best prepster in US]

Info: Cosart was the Phillies 2008 slot buster, getting $550K, one of the largest bonuses given out after the 10th round. Here are a few scouting reports.

As an outfielder, Jarred Cosart broke Jay Buhner’s Clear Creek High record for batting average this spring, hitting .506 to Buhner’s .480. But pro teams are more interested in Cosart as a loose, athletic 6-foot-3, 180-pound righthander. He reached 96 mph with his fastball in the fall, but he topped out at 92 this spring. He’s more of a project as a pitcher than he is as a hitter, as he has an awkward pause in the middle of his delivery that compromises his ability to throw strikes or refine his secondary pitches. He wanted top-three-rounds money to sign, which means he’ll likely attend Missouri, where he’ll play both ways.

– BA Draft Preview

Jarred Cosart is a 2008 OF/1B/3B/P with a 6’3”, 180 lb. frame from League City, TX who attends Clear Creek HS. Tall athletic build, outstanding raw tools, recorded highest velocity ever in a workout from the outfield, quick wrists at the plate, solid middle of the field contact, level swing plane, good raw hitting tools, great actions, solid footwork, unbelievable arm strength, quick clean arm action on the mound, balanced delivery, nice extension, sharp 11 to 5 curveball, curveball is an out pitch, nice sink and run on change-up, feel for three above average pitches, strong student, highest level prospect, potential early round draft pick.

— PGC 2008 World Showcase

Cosart is a prospect we saw for the first time about a year ago. He topped out at 93 mph from the mound, hit very well and even ran a good 60. He’s very athletic and with a very strong, fast arm. Unfortunately he suffered a minor injury during the workouts and was unable to pitch in the 2007 Aflac game. He did show his ability during the workouts and impressed our staff once again. His future is most likely on the mound, but he is a potential 2 way guy at the college level. His fastball is always in the low 90’s with good life at times. He should be able to master a good breaking ball and changeup as he continues to progress. Cosart has room to put on some more weight which might push him up into the mid 90’s in a hurry. His arm works very well and he gets good leverage. Cosart is just scratching the surface right now. He could really turn it on over the next few years. We wish everyone could have seen him pitch in the game.

— PGC 2007 Aflac All American Classic

Here is Cosart’s scouting video

Take: As you can see in the video, Cosart has an explosive arm. He comes almost straight over the top, allowing him to pitch downhill even though he isn’t exceptionally tall. He has good present velocity, and he has room to add even more as he fills out and gets stronger. To go along with his powerful arm, he also set records with his bat, illustrating his pure athletic ability. Cosart has massive potential, and is a guy I think could really open some eyes. This was a great sign by the Phillies here, clearly they allocated about $500K to sign one guy later in the draft and Cosart was their guy. While I wouldn’t have minded them using this money on Marrs, I’m more than happy with the Cosart selection, and as long as he’s healthy, he’s a guy I expect to see performing well in the very near future.

R37 (1126) — Matt Johnson, OF — John W North HS (California)
[Did Not Sign — California Baptist]
[BA = unranked, PGC = unranked]

Info: I’ve got nothing on Johnson, other than he had a commitment to California Baptist University. If anyone else has info here, please share it.

Take: See above.

R36 (1096) — Mike Cisco, RHP — South Carolina
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = unranked, PGC = ??]

large version here.

Info: Cisco, 21, had a down junior year after solid freshman and sophomore years. MLB listed him as a senior, but he made the 2006 SEC All Freshman team, so I think he’s a junior, especially since he is only 21. I might be wrong on this one though. He flashed good control across the board and missed a decent amount of bats, but he was much more hittable his junior year, and he was definitely HR prone during his 3 years at South Carolina. The Phillies were able to sign him, presumably for a small sum, and he promptly blazed through 2 levels in his pro debut. He posted a ridiculous 30:0 K to BB ratio at Lakewood, and finished with a cumulative 0.99 ERA in 54.1 IP.

Take: If I had considered 2008 draftees for my player of the year award, I’d have been tempted to just give the award to Cisco. His ceiling might not be very high, he is short (6’0, 195), but he clearly has a plan, at least a plan to dispose of inexperienced hitters. He’ll face a tougher test against more advanced hitters, obviously, but so far this looks like a nice find. His career is likely as a reliever, but this is great value in the 36th round. Hopefully he starts 2009 in Clearwater, either as a starter or reliever, and we can begin to evaluate what we have here.

R35 (1066) Ruddy Rio-Nunez, OF — Eduardo Montpetit HS (Quebec)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = unranked, PGC = unranked]

Info: This one stumped me. I have no clue on Rio-Nunez. The Phillies threw a bunch of curveballs, taking guys from Europe, Canada, and guys without schools. Out of the box thinking, I suppose.

Take: Rio-Nunez, 18, made his debut in the GCL and was hitless in 7 PA’s, striking out 3 times. That sample means less than nothing. Hopefully we’ll find out more on him. If someone has something to share on this, please post it and I’ll add it here.

R34 (1036) Blaine O’Brien, RHP — Scituate HS (Massachusetts)
[Did Not Sign — Georgia]
[BA = 8th in Mass, PGC = 352nd prepster in US]

Info: O’Brien was ranked the 3rd best prep prospect in Mass by BA, but was viewed as a tough sign with a commitment to the University of Georgia. His scouting report

Scituate righthander Blaine O’Brien has considerably more projection in his 6-foot-7 frame, but he’s mostly a one-pitch guy now, relying on an 87-88 mph fastball that touches 90 occasionally. O’Brien could add velocity as he fills out a lanky frame that one scout compared to that of Tom Hanks’ Woody character from “Toy Story.” O’Brien is unlikely to be bought out of his commitment to Georgia.

— BA Draft Preview

PG Crosschecker also had him in the high 80’s in 2007, no updated report for 2008.

Take: Woody from Toy Story, eh? O’Brien, like Joe Pond, is a guy that will benefit from the development time in college as well as the time to fill out his long and lanky frame. The Phillies knew about his Georgia commitment, obviously it was going to be extremely tough to sign him unless something changed with his college situation. We’re still in the range where its fine to take these kinds of risks. No harm done.

R33 (1006) — Jamie Simpson, 1B — Dowagiac Union HS (Michigan)
[Did Not Sign — Western Michigan]
[BA = unranked, PGC = unranked]

Info: Your guess is as good as mine. Nothing on him (that I could find) in either place.

Take: The same caveats apply as with previous picks, but its kind of strange to take a kid in the 33rd round that hasn’t shown up on any lists anywhere. He has to be a guy that a local scout saw and liked. He had a football scholarship to Western Michigan, so he’s a 2 sport guy as well, which could have kept scouts away and kept him off the rankings. I guess there isn’t a whole lot else to say on this one.

R32 (976) — Shaun Ellis, RHP — Polk Community College (Florida)
[Signed, Bonus Undisclosed]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = Unranked]

Info: Ellis was an intriguing prospect back in 2004, but kind of fell through the cracks and bounced around a bit. I had a hard time locating all of his JuCo stats, so I won’t post that here unless I can get it sorted out in the next few days. Ellis didn’t make his debut in 2008, so we don’t even have a small sample to judge. Anyway, here’s a scouting report from way back in 2004

Shaun is a tall 04 RHP with a pro type body and frame at 6-4 200 lbs from Philadelphia, PA. With the bat Shaun showed a nice set up with a wide base and high hands. He generates average bat speed and strength with raw gap to gap power. His swing path is a little long to the ball, but showed great promise with consistent barrell contact and bottom half rotation. On the mound is where this kid really shined. With a raw effort delivery Shaun uses a loose fast arm, from an over the top angle to throw mid 80s. There is plenty of room to grow into his frame, and with some polish to his mechanics Shaun will easily throw in the upper 80’s to low 90’s someday. He showed two breaking balls, both with average rotation, depth and sharpness. His 12-6 breaking ball was better than the 10-4 slider. Both pitches showed promise at 71 mph, and will get better with consistent mechanics. He showed a change up at 68 with average sink and pure straight change action. The sky’s the limit for this kid. He is unsigned at this point but a worthy project for a Div I or Juco program

— PGC ID Camp PA 2004

Take: I really don’t know. It seemed that he had potential, but that was 4 years ago. I guess its another arm to throw into the mix, but he didn’t pitch for the Phillies at all in 2008, so I don’t know if hes carrying an injury, or if they just shut him down to limit innings or what. If anyone has any info on this one, let me know.

R31 (946) — Spencer Arroyo, LHP — Modesto Junior College (California)
[Signed, ~$100,000 estimate]
[BA = 141 in CA, PGC = 43rd best JuCo prospect in US]

large version here.

Info: Arroyo, one of the handful of JuCo guys the Phillies targeted, had a nice season at Modesto and signed a LOI with Cal, which hindered his signability in the eyes of some, but the Phillies got the deal done. The estimate, which was given in an article when he signed, is around $100K, which is basically around 7th round money. There are conflicting reports on his stuff. Baseball America, in their draft preview, said

Arroyo has athleticism and a good changeup, with too much projection left on his soft fastball and curve for most scouts’ tastes.

While this article says he has low 90’s velocity along with a slider and changeup.

Take: It was a rough pro debut for Arroyo, but he’s an interesting arm. If he lacks plus velocity, it lowers his ceiling. Most guys taken after the 30th round aren’t going to get anything even close to the bonus Arroyo got, and in fact, 15+ picks might not get $100,000 total, so there are clear exceptions here, though no one is really expecting him to be Randy Johnson. He’s likely to repeat the GCL, or possibly start at Williamsport, but he has a long way to go.

R30 (916) Dwayne Henderson, SS — Southeastern HS (Michigan)
[Did Not Sign — Olney Central Junior College]
[BA = Unranked, PGC = unranked]

Info: I couldn’t find any info on him at all. PGC had a profile page for him, but no real baseball info. He had a commitment to Olney Central Junior College, so he’ll likely enter the draft in 2009.

Take: Like the Jamie Simpson pick, its odd to take a guy in the 30th round that isn’t on anyone’s list, even if its just a mention. I’m assuming he’s a raw kid with potential, just too raw to gamble on. If anyone has more, let me know.

Rounds 30-50 Wrap

So there we have the last 20 rounds of the draft. The Phillies signed 8 guys here, including one high profile guy in Cosart, as well as an interesting JuCo guy in Arroyo. Cisco, a guy who really wasn’t highly thought of, torched the NYPL and the SAL in his debut and is a guy to watch in 2009. A few of the other guys like Rio-Nunez and Frew are filler, but at least the Phillies showed ambition here. A bunch of the guys they couldn’t sign, Law, Marrs, O’Brien and Pond, will all likely end up moving up draft boards barring injury in college. Cosart alone makes these 20 rounds a success, as he has a real high ceiling and tons of potential. If Cisco at least becomes a fringe ML reliever it will be a success. The Phillies did well here taking guys they could use should a mishap at the top of the draft occur, they took a bunch of org guys who held their own, and even managed to sign a few guys over slot. I deem this a success.

R20-29 tomorrow.