Prospect Matrix

2008 Reader Top 30, Top Prospect Lists

As the season is coming to a close, I thought it would be entertaining to take a look back at predictions heading into the 2008 season. I compiled my Top 30, the consensus Top 30 done by you guys, the Top 30 from Baseball America, and Kevin Goldstein’s Top 11 plus honorable mentions (in yellow) to see who looks smart and who doesn’t look so smart. Or who got lucky. Note, I instructed everyone to ignore Mathieson and Zagurski in their rankings, I think maybe because of the amount of MLB time they had and that I didn’t consider them pure prospects or whatever. Well, that was probably dumb, but it looks like both guys have dropped off the radar, for similar/different reasons. Anyway, here is the chart.

If that image doesn’t properly fit your screen, click here.

Talk amongst yourselves. I gave you a topic.

57 thoughts on “Prospect Matrix”

  1. What’s funnier:

    No one having Taylor in their top 30?
    or
    The Readers having Harman in their top 10?

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  4. There was no reason for anybody to have Taylor in their top 30. He was a 5th round draft pick who crapped the bed in W’Port. So it’s not all that funny at all. Harman in top 10 was a pretty bad miss, as was Carpenter at 5. But if you look at the other two top 30 lists, as PP pointed out, he had Spencer at #16, and if you look at BA’s, they had Donald at #15. Nobody’s perfect.

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  5. It’ll be interesting to see how some guys have climbed/fell once the year is over and we re-rank the prospects (assuming we do it again)

    Taylor is obviously going to rocket up the charts. I wonder who might have the biggest drop. Possibly Harman – who probably was deserving of the #10 rank last year. He’s had a rough year, even though I think he could still have a future as a utility guy.

    – Jeff

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  7. Looking at our host’s top 10, the three where he deviated most from the mainstream consensus were Donald (6, BBA 15), Naylor (8, BBA 29) and Harman (10, BBA 20). I’d score that 2/3 for this site over BBA.

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  8. I find D’Arnaud’s ranking to be really low; I had him in my top 10. Goldstein has him at #6.

    D’Arnaud is rapidly developing into the equal to Marson, who is clearly one of the top 3 catching prospects in the game. Would it be a stretch to call D’Arnaud one of the top 10 catching prospects in baseball? Probably not, so why is he so low on most of these lists? Regardless of distance to the majors, shouldn’t a future everyday starting catcher like D’Arnaud be rated higher than a future backup, in Jaramillo? I like Jaramillo more than most, primarily for his switch hitting, but his status as a “prospect” has diminished over the last 2 years.

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  9. Looking at BBA’s top 10, the three that they have there instead of Donald/Naylor/Harman are Brown/Golson/Jaramillo. They got Brown right; Golson I’d say is a push, and they got Jaramillo wrong.

    But this site did have Brown at 12 and Golson at 15. Overall, 2 of the 3 the biggest “mistakes” were made by BBA – underrating Donald and overrating Jaramillo.

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  10. Clearly EVERYONE got D’Arnaud wrong; what I find most interesting, though, are the players where there was a real difference of opinion.

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  11. Kudos to Goldstein (and you too, baxter) for pulling the d’Arnaud bandwagon out of the station. I had him at #25 last November, but he’s at #5 for me at this point. He does have 3 errors at Lakewood already, but I’m curious to see if they think about jumping him to Clearwater next year.

    While we’re down on Harman, Carpenter, Correa, Jaramillo, Myers, Diekman and others — and we lost Cardenas, Outman, and Spencer — I think the system on the whole is a bit stronger than a year ago. Taylor, d’Arnaud, Brown, Naylor and Bastardo have each shot up the charts to some extent, and the influx of new talent from this draft class (Collier, Knapp, Worley, Shreve, Cosart, etc.) is very encouraging.

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  13. Harman a big, big disappointment, but only second biggest for me. The likely end of career for Mathieson, recently are second best pitching prospect, was my biggest disappointment. The vanishing act on Correa is my third biggest disappointment. Carpenter seems to be pretty much back on track after a putrid start. Agree that Cardenas, Outman, and Spencer are big losses from the farm. Taylor was a huge surprise and plus for the system. I don’t think D’Arnauld has really been a surprise, he was rated lower going into the year because of the level he was playing at. Just as Jaramillo got a boost for being in AAA. Those choices in ranking aren’t ‘wrong’, they simply reflect a combination of ceiling/stage of development tradeoff. I don’t like to include current year draftees in my top prospect lists unless they have played significantly (at least 100 AB for a hitter, and done very well). Otherwise, you’re just ranking on draft position. A ranking of #16 for a new HS draftee with an OPS of about .630 in GCL seems right.
    I also agree that strong draft puts us a bit ahead of where we were last season at this time, although the prospects didn’t shift to more developed with hotshot HS kids added, but the far more developed Cardenas, Outman, Spencer gone.

    On another note regarding the Pharm — 2008 has to rank as among the most truly dismal years for prospects moving up from the Pharm to help the big club.

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  14. Everyone missed Taylor. There really were no signs of what he was going to do this year. Even his college numbers weren’t a predictor. Keith law liked D’Arnaud a lot and said not to worry about his hitting. He nailed that acorn. Another high school catcher from the same area in California as D’Arnaud, Austin Romine, was drafted by the Yankees at pick 94 last year (2nd round) and has had a good season in the SAL, even with Montero there. D’Arnaud should have been in Low-A, too. Kevin Goldstein, in his early days of this decade before he went to Baseball America and later BP, was mainly a sabermetric type. He seems to have incorporated more projectability into his thinking.

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  15. I understand no one could have predicted Taylor’s year but when looking at his year and some of the players who have struggled its just funny how a player’s status and worth can change so quickly and come from the most unlikely people. That’s all. If anything Taylor’s rise should show us just how important player devleopment is and how even the most highly touted player sometimes never pan out.

    This was an exciting year following all these prospects via this website, even if at times the teams didn’t paly well.

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  16. PP wins the OBP award for ranking Marson and Donald higher than everyone else, but he loses the Tools award for ranking Golson lower than everyone else. Hey PP, you can’t build a house without tools! Head over to Home Depot, will ya? 😉

    So if we had a 20-year-old SS in AA hitting .294/.377/.338, would you rate him our number one prospect? The answer has to be yes, right? I’m still kind of shocked at his performance so far…maybe it’s an aberration and he stinks in the field? Interesting that the Phils’ player development guys didn’t think he could play SS or handle AA but the A’s do. I guess we’ll see how it plays out.

    I’ll be interested to see how Mattair’s ranking changes – kind of a blah year, but against much older competition. Will BA and Goldstein still give him credit for his upside?

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  17. My guess is that Mattair stays about the same. He held his own, but “blah” is a very adequate way to describe his year – no hot streaks, a few cold streaks, very mediocre numbers (that actually aren’t that much better than last year’s). Next year will be crucial in determining his proespectitude

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  18. Tyler Mach? Did we really vote for him? Yeah, I think I did. I think the list is going to be harder this year. Some of these recent draft guys will require evaluation. Taylor’s an example of a wonderful surprise. Harman is one we’ll drop significantly. He might be one of those “one-level at a time” guys. He’ll take the whole year to get comfortable with a level. I’m worried that he never adapted to AA. He’s still 22 so he won’t fall completely under the radar.

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  19. Speaking of Carrasco, from Keith Law’s potential Sept. call-ups today:

    “The Phillies wouldn’t part with Carrasco in any deals last month, even though he could have helped them land a better starter than Joe Blanton through the trade market. Carrasco’s best pitch is his fastball, which is 90-94 on his best nights, while his changeup and curveball are both below average. He has a loose arm and gets good life on the ball. One concern is that he missed a start in early July, complaining of arm soreness, and then showed reduced stuff in his inning of work at the Futures Game. ”

    Someone else mentioned bringing him up to bolster the bullpen. I think it’s a great idea, I bet his stuff would play up for one inning. It also breaks him into the majors easy, getting him ready for spot starts next year.

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  20. **while his changeup and curveball are both below average.**

    is this true? or is this this another example of no love from our friend Keith Law.

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  21. more anti-Phillies bias.

    Law has consistently been down on Carrasco’s changeup while BA raves over it. Everyone knows where I lean on this type of thing.

    I think the knock from Law is that he slows his arm down on his changeup, which I’ve noticed when watching him pitch. If I can notice it, big leaguers can too.

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  22. The 37 strikeouts in 30 innings at triple-A suggest that Carrasco is at least fooling some of the people, some of the time.

    In general, prospects gain cred–and this should be an obvious point–by playing better as they move to higher levels. It signifies that their game is improving more rapidly than the quality of the competition. By this standard, the biggest jumpers in our system from spring ’08 to now are:

    Taylor
    Marson
    Donald
    D’Arnaud (penalized slightly for small sample size)
    Bastardo
    Brown
    Carrasco (mostly on the strength of limited AAA performance)
    Naylor
    Golson (tough as it sometimes is to recognize; but he topped his ’07 high-A performance at the next level this season, making the transition James argues, with cause, is the toughest in the minors)

    I wouldn’t necessarily call these nine guys the top nine in our system: some of the names not here had high-enough ceilings (Savery, Drabek, Sampson) and/or held ground sufficiently that they should be in the mix too. And of course there are the ’08 draftees, none of whom IMO have given us enough info to make clear evaluations (particularly since the best of them are all teenagers).

    But it’s been a good year for the Pharm, especially on the positional side.

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  23. I thought Carrasco’s change was his best pitch?

    Now I’m confused. I’d be more worreid about his amount of baserunners than that. Though his K rate has been impressive to say the least and I mean all season…he took a big leap forward in getting guys out…higher K rates tend to translate into success in the majors IMHO.

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  24. BA could include one or more of our younger prospects at the end of their 2009 top 100 list. High-ceiling players with good numbers in limited experience often fill out the list, and we suddenly have a lot of those. Possible sleepers: D’Arnaud, Taylor, Knapp, Collier, Worley, Drabek, Sampson or Galvis. D’Arnaud and Taylor are most probable, but maybe their “ten pack” inclusions make them more than sleepers. Right now, I’d project 4 or 5 Phillies to make it: Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Taylor and maybe Drabek or D’Arnaud. A strong winter ball showing by Collier or Knapp could get some attention. What do you think?

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  25. dont get me wrong I like d’arnaud but I want to see how he performs at the higher levels before I get excited about him, He has done awesome this year and hopefully he can continue his great year all the way through the minors

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  26. I was always under the impression that Carrasco’s changeup was his best pitch, and that his curve was better than “below average”. I always dismissed accusations of anti-Phillies bias, but this example demonstrates either ignorance or bias.

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  27. Don’t know where else to put this so this is as good a place as any…did anyone else notice that one Baez, W made a 1 inning relief appearance in the GCL last night?
    Does anyone have any info on what kind of makeup he has on the mound?
    Obviously, the transition to the mound was due to his inherent lack of hitting skills, but as was discussed when the decision was made to make the transition he is young enough that 3-4 years down the road, he may be able to contribute at the ML level, if all goes well.

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  29. i guess we’re going to do this again. Law’s evaluation of Carrasco is based on seeming him pitch in person multiple times. BA reports and even the Goldstein reports are 2nd hand reports from other unnamed scouts. It just matters who you depend on the most for your information.

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  30. Whatever the case, if Law is correct in his observation, then that’s a worrying thing to hear. Guys with good fastballs but inconsistent secondary stuff don’t usually do well as starters once they get to the majors (see Bailey, Homer), so that will certainly be something for Carrasco to improve on going forward.

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  31. Knapp is out for the rest of the year with an arm injury. He wants to pitch , but the Phillies arent letting him.

    – Per a poster at Philaphans who went to the game today.

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  32. “but this example demonstrates either ignorance or bias.”

    Or a simple difference of opinion. Even if you grant that Law is wrong (a big if), there are lots of ways to be wrong without being ignorant or biased.

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  34. I’m sorry, but for anyone to stick up for Law on this is ridiculous.

    Unless you throw 97+ mph fastballs, you can’t strike out batters at the rate Carlos does.

    I’ve seen Carlos twice this year, and both times I didn’t come away thinking he had poor secondary stuff. You can tell when someone has awful secondary pitches, like Kendrick.

    I’ve listened to a couple of his AAA games online to the opposing teams announcers, and each time all I’ve heard is the opposing announcers talking about how good his offspeed stuff is. The PawSox announcers even said he was the best young pitcher that they’ve seen this year.

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  38. and why would they call him up for that matter, is kendrick not able to start tonight or something and carpenter is the only one with 5 days rest

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  39. If you go to Phils website under transactions Carpenter is called up added to roster, Tracy is DFA and interestingly Zagurski is transferred to 60 day DL which tells me someone else is going to be added

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  40. allright i don’t know where Law is getting this from (apparently from seeing Carrasco in person a few times) but i have absolutely heard nothing but good things about Carrascos changeup. From what i’ve heard he has a plus fastball and plus changeup which is his BEST pitch, and an average curve which is still a work in progress. I think Law needs to come to this board and defend himself. Maybe he miswrote “below average changeup and curve” and meant “above average” heh

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  41. What is the consensus on TJ Warren? He popped up in Lakewood halfway through the season and held his own there the entire time. Is he a top 30 prospect?

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  42. Danno he definitely did not write that wrong. Law has been very consistent not liking Carrasco’s secondary stuff at all. What I don’t like about him is that he says Carlos had reduced stuff in the Futures game when he went one inning and fanned two batters. That just kinda makes it seem like he expects to see something in advance and if he sees a hint of it then he says his stuff is reduced.

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  43. Who was it on here who was questioning Taylor’s power a little while ago?

    Another HR and multi-hit game tonight…

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  44. Colin, I did notice Baez in the GCL box score. I’m not sure he’s trying to transition to pitcher but the game had turned into a blowout. The GCL Phils already wrapped up the division. They probably didn’t want to waste a pitcher in a mop up role. On the other hand, He’s been at Clearwater during the year… why would he suddenly appear in the GCL game? It could be geography… Clearwater. I was searching for the last game he played this year and I couldn’t determine it.

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  45. I meant to say, I couldn’t determine the last game Baez played prior to last night’s game. I’m sure some wise-guy was going to pick up on that.

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  46. Both Baez and Jesus Sanchez (who also pitched an inning a couple of days ago for GCL) have been switched to pitchers. I am assuming each has a good arm. Who knows how long it will take them to refine secondary stuff. In the case of Baez he probably has next year to get it done at the most. He is going to be a 6-year minor league free agent after this year so it is possible that he might even be pitching for another team next year. Hard to believe but his first GCL season was 2003.

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  47. Oh I don’t think this has been mentioned by anyone, but the minor leagues have their post season allstars(best player from each position in the league).

    Here’s the Phils who made it in their respective leagues.

    Galvis – SS – SAL
    Berry – OF – FSL
    Donald – SS – EL
    Marson – C – EL

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  52. Drew Naylor as well has put together his 5th solid start in a row. I guess he starts in Clearwater next year with a quick promotion if he continues to do well.

    Stutes also had a great game for Lakewood.

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  53. Taylor now has 39 doubles, 19 homers, and 3 triples. I don’t care if he is old for level and didn’t hit at Stanford. I am friggin excited for this guy.

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  54. I can’t see how anyone isn’t excited about this kid. He has been great at two levels. If he goes to reading and hits he could be up late next year at twenty three that’s not old.

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  55. the good thing about TAYLOR he survived a terrible month
    in JUNE. All success makes a player think the game is easy.

    INTERESTING : HOW MANY FROM THE FARM SYSTEM WILL BE
    IN THE MAJORS NEXT YEAR. GUESSES WELCOME

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  57. whats funny is how different this list is going to look this year. the FO is heading in a real good direction with the farm, this year’s list i think will show that.

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