Yesterday we tackled our 10 best pitching prospects, so today we’ll open the floor for the hitting side. If you posted your Top 10 hitters in another post (shame on you!) then repost it in the comments here. Again, consider the following 4 conditions;
1. Performance
2. Projection
3. Health
4. Proximity to the majors
Place as much emphasis on each individual aspect as you’d like, then rank them from 1 to 10. I don’t think we’ll have any eligibility issues on this one, so go for it.
Phuture Phillies 
1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Golson
5. D’arnaud
6. Dominic Brown
7. Valle
8. Susdorf
9. Leandro Castro
10. Collier
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1.Marson 2.Taylor. 3Donald. 4.Brown.5D’Arnaud.6—–.7—-.8. Golson.9 Berry.10. Valle
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. d’Arnaud
4. Taylor
5. Golson
6. Brown
7. Collier
8. Hewitt
9. Galvis
10. Gose?
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1) Marson
2) Taylor
3) D’Arnaud
4) Donald
5) Berry
6) Harris
7) Golson
8) Durant
9) Mattair
10) Brown
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I can’t come up with ten hitters. How can people put Hewitt or Mattai, Durant all unproven at any level. Harris is too old to consider Berry is approaching too old for a prospect. Susdorf is looking like a organization filler.There is maybe five guys who might hit a little only donald and marson so far are guys who project as being able to handle major league pitching.
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Golson
5. D’Arnaud
6. D. Brown
7. Jaramillo
8. Berry
9. Susdorf
10. Harman
Unlike the pitching, which is more projectible, I’m more interested in hitters who are actually producing solid numbers, the higher the level the better.
Unfortunately, finding those was much harder. Note: I don’t really consider anyone older than 26 to be a prospect at this point anymore. (Jaramillo better hurry to the big leagues because he’s getting close!).
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Okay, comments attached as I see fit:
1) Marson – poised for a Carlos-Ruiz like career 😉
2) Donald – improves at each level. Had he not been hurt, he would’ve been called up when Rollins was injured
3) D’Arnaud – bumped up a spot or two because of his performance at Lakewood
4) Taylor – Seems about the right slot for him. Let’s see how he does at Reading next year
5) Brown – consistency + plate disciple = good prospect. Some concerns about his defense keep him from being higher
6) Collier – I’m hesitant about putting him this high, but has shown some impressive plate discipline
7) Mattair – I’m placing him higher that he should be because I’m a big fan. Needs to have a big year next year
8) Golson – Showing some power recently, but I think his ceiling now is a fourth outfielder
9) Jaramillo – should be in the bigs now. Solid, unspectacular catcher
10) Hamilton – not having a good year out of the gate, but if he can get his stroke figured out (and his XBH % as well as high amount of BBs suggest a turnaround), he oughta be a good Major Leaguer.
Honorable Mentions: Susdorf (not sure of his ceiling, but could be a solid player), Overbeck (probably needs to switch to 2b and learn how to draw a walk, but has a ton of RBIs)
– Jeff
Honorable mentions:
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Golson
5. D’ Arnaud
6. Savery
7. Brown
8, 9, 10. Whichever draftees decide to step up
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Getting to the majors is an accomplishment staying for awhile at any age is huge—something most of us would have given anything to do.
Therefore my list will reflect some of those sentiments.
1—Marson
2–Donald
3–Taylor
4–Brown
5–Golson
6–Galvis
7–D’arnaud
8–Slayden
9–Jaramillo
10-Harris
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Marson
Donald
Taylor
Tracy
Brown
d’Arnaud
Watson
Golson
Collier
Berry
Honorable Mention: Savery, Snelling, Harris, Jaramillo, Milner, Slayden
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1. Taylor- I’m a big believer in this guy, next year he’ll be a AA and no one in the system is even close to his numbers this year. A star in the making as far as I’m concerned.
2. Marson- Love the plate discipline, see him as a poor man’s Russ Martin, a perfect 7 hole guy for this lineup.
3. Donald- Has gotten it done at AA and KLaw thinks of highly of him so that’s good enough for me. Will be a guy that can fill in at 2nd, SS, and 3rd next year without a problem.
4. Brown- The only reason he’s not top two is his age and level, another monster in the making.
5. D’Arnaud- See above
6. Golson- Like him a little more than others because of his plus plus tools of D, speed,and arm. Hopefully plate discipline can be taught, we’ll see.
7. Slayden- Trade bait, but has raked at every level.
8. Mattair- Tools need to be a big jump to skills next year, but has shown promise this year and hasn’t fallen on his face.
9. Collier- Only 17, huge potential.
10. Hewitt- The K Man! Phuture Phils I think you predicted his stats a while back saying what they would be if the Phils drafted him. HUGE potential at the plate.
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Marson
Taylor
Donald
Golson
d’Arnaud
Collier
Brown
Castro
Valle
Harris
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Berry
5. Golson
6. D’Arnaud
7. Mattair
8. Brown
9. Valle
10. Harman
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01. Lou Marson
02. Jason Donald
03. Travis D’Arnaud
04. Michael Taylor
05. Sebastian Valle
06. Zachary Collier
07. Travis Mattair
08. Dominic Brown
09. Leandro Castro
10. Anthony Hewitt
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1- Marson
2- Donald
3- Taylor
4- Dom Brown
5- Golson
6- D’Arnaud
7- Mattair
8- Slayden
9- Valle
10- Clay Harris
Along the same lines as the pitching prospects, I opted to stay away from players drafted this year. Hitters take longer to prove themselves after turning pro than pitchers do, mostly due to the wood bat transition. I think Mattair is going to be batting 5th in the majors someday, but the guys I’m most excited about are Taylor and Brown at the corner outfield spots. That would be something to watch. I think Slayden is ready to play in the majors right now as a platooning fourth outfielder along the lines of David Dellucci.
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1-donald
2-marson
3-taylor
4-d’arnaud
5-golson
6-brown
7-slayden
8-dom brown
9-overbeck
10-fill in organizational filler here
as i said several weeks ago I’m much more concerend abou the organizational depth of the hitters now as you can see we’re all having trouble finding 10 solid or even decent prospects.
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I really thought that we were going to have a discussion on hitters. But a lot of people are not taking it serious, Or they are joking can you imagine someone putting tracy on the list.or hewitt, castro what a joke can’t be serious. I know people are not serious they listed Watson and Harmon.Maybe they are mets fans and are making fun of us. No one who followes this blog can be serious with those names.I think Galvis is too young to rate but so far he can’t hit how can anyone at this stage list him.
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor – He’s showing us all why he deserves to be this high.
4. D’ Arnaud
5. Golson – I understand why people are down on him but I don’t agree with it.
6. Brown – And breathing right down Golson’s neck
7. Collier – Loved his transition to prof. ball
8. Jarramilo – Bounced back from a bad start, def. a MLB back up.
9. Slayden – At 26, he’s old for a prospect
10. D’Arby Myers- Because he can hit righties. Yes lefties are his kryptonite but I think his bat will play in a platoon like setting at the MLB level one day.
Next 6 in any order- Hewitt (major project), Valle, Kennely, Galvis, Susdorf, Mattair (and falling fast)
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Golson
4. Taylor
5. Brown
6. D’Arnaud
Big dropoff
7. Mattair
8. Hewitt
9. Valle
10. Collier
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Not to be rude, but anyone who has Dominic Brown anywhere beyond #5 is crazy.
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1. Taylor
2. Donald
3. Marson
4. Brown (assuming his injury isn’t serious)
5. Golson
6. Travis D’Arnaud
7. J. Slayden
8. Lou Collier
9. Travis Mattair
10. Sebastian Valle
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Rocky,
Watson and Tracy are guys you might see when rosters expand. Are they stars in the making? No. But just last season Watson set an International League record with a 43 game hitting streak.
At least I put up 10 names. If you’re going to be ornery about other people’s picks you might at least follow instructions and pick 10 names yourself.
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Golson
5. Brown
6. D’Arnaud
7. Collier
8. Valle
9. L. Castro
10. J. Murphy
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1- Marson
2- Donald
3- Taylor (Huge year)
4- Golson (For all the whining people do, still a lot of upside and if nothing else will contribute to the big league team in some way)
5- Dom Brown (Having a great year in A ball)
6- D’Arnaud (Could be our best catching prospect)
7- Brad Harman (22 in AA, good power numbers. I expect him to have a big year in AA next year. Can play 2B, SS, & 3B, so he will see some big league time at some point)
8- Freddy Galvis (Mostly known as a defensive whiz, but only 18 in A ball. After his first month that he hit .143 he’s done pretty well, moved up to 2nd in the Blue Claw order)
9- Quintin Berry (Lots of speed, may not have the upside of other prospects, but more likely to make it to the big leagues because of his speed as a bench player)
10- Travis Mattair (Young for his league, plays in a pitchers park, holding his own.)
Just missed
D’Arby Myers – Still young only 19, but next year he needs to step it up in Lakewood. I’ll give him a mulligan on this year.
Gus Milner – 24 in Clearwater, College guy has went slowly level by level. But has put up very solid numbers in each spot. Decent speed/ decent power could make it as a bench player.
Steve Susdorf – I don’t want to be a downer, but his numbers have already tailed off some. He’ll have to prove it next year for me to buy into him as a prospect.
Michael Durant – Major power, but major strike outs & not much else. Supposedly he can’t hit offspeed pitches, but an interesting prospect none the less.
Jeremy Slayden – Low Ceiling, probably higher floor then most prospects as well. Produced at every level.
Derrick Mitchell – He is playing 2B for Lakewood 21 so he’s pretty much age appropriate has 40 XBH and good speed. Only hitting .250 and needs to improve defensively/plate discipline. But he certainly make for an interesting prospect.
Joel Naughton – Australian catcher, 21 in Lakewood hitting .275 I’ve heard he’s very strong defensively. Someone to keep an eye on.
Matt Rizzotti – Decent year in Lakewood, good size a little old at 22. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him break out next year in Clearwater.
Cody Overbeck – Very good power numbers in Williamsport, next year will be an important year for him.
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Marson
Taylor
Donald
Brown
Golson
Slayden
D’Arnaud
Collier
Valle
Savery
as someone else said, anyone who had brown any lower than 5 is out of their mind. i don’t have numbers but i have to think his XBH% is through the roof. he’s hit extremely well this year.
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Rocky, I also dont know how you can trash someones pick of Hewitt. One of the 4 things James listed was Projection. Some people may project Hewitt and Collier to be big time players. Personally, I think a guy that has a chance of developing into a star is more valueable than a guy like Jaramillo who we know is going to be average defensively and below average offensively.
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What’s the hate on Harman? He’s age appropriate and has some (some=could make a 25 man roster) potential. I’d rather not list him at #10 as I don’t think he’s a great prospect but he can play 3b, ss, and 2b so at worst he could fill the utility role cheaply next year.
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Marson
Donald
Taylor
D’Arnaud
Golson
D. Brown
Jaramillo
Valle
Galvis (by hitting I think position prospects and he has an awesome glove)
Berry (though he’s too old for his level)
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Honorable Mention:
SS Troy Hanzawa (I’ve seen him play and like him)
3B Cody Overbeck (coming on very strong after a slow start in the NY/Penn league). Not a 3B in the majors though…probably a corner OF.
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Rodeo –
I didn’t include Harman due to his low BA, and I’m guessing that is the rationale for most people. He has shown some decent pop this year, but he’s never really gotten it together. Still, he could be poised for a Bruntlett-esque career (aka a Utility Man who doesn’t do anything special but is essential to a team)
BTW, there is an article on the Phillies webpage about how Ruiz is struggling, and it contains some subtle (to me, at least) hints that Marson will see some playing time when he gets the call. Manuel said something along the lines of not expecting him to come up and make an impact, but that “some guys have a knack and can step right in.”
– Jeff
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I looked at this a little differently. I looked at who our top players are at each position. Catcher is solid with Marson, D’Arnaud and Valle and there are others. I moved the 1B. I tried to name one. Harris? Durant? Murphy? I’d have to say out top hitting prospect at 1B is a pitcher… Savery. 2B: you could pick Donald or Harman but they are also SS. Galvis has the highest upside at SS but will he be able to hit. 3B would leave you with Overbeck and Mattair. These guys are long way from showing me they are in the upper tier. OF prospects are Taylor, Golson, Brown, Berry and Slayden (I do like Slayden).
If we were doing our top 30 prospects, which is where I think James is leading us, will we have 20 pitchers and 10 position players? It sure looks like that’s the way it shaping up.
My top 10:
Marson
Donald
Taylor
Brown
D’Arnaud
Golson
Harris (If he’s not too old)
Valle
Slayden
Berry
I didn’t want any 1st year guys because I just don’t have enough info on them yet. I had a hard time getting to 10. I wanted to put Harman on there but he’s not hitting his weight. Galvis is the same for me.
I’m hoping this time next year, we’re doing this same exercise and we’ve got Collier, Overbeck, Mattair, Galvis, Hewitt, Hanzawa, Murphy and especially D’Arby Myers on the list. Maybe we’ll be naming 20 guys for 10 slots. Let’s hope.
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Brown
5. Golson
6. D’Arnaud
7. Galvis
8. Mattair
9. Jaramillo
10. Berry
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Quick MLB note on Ruiz (Sorry James): Ruiz has been pretty solid over the past month and his defense is always good. He DID have a brutal first half but he’s been taking alot of pitches lately and turning the lineup over like a good defensive catcher. I’d still love to see Marson as the 3rd catcher but I get the feeling it will be someone like Ross or Jaramillo (if no trade/move is made) that’s up with the big boys.
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James, do you have any thoughts on Golson’s surge in his walk rate in the 2nd Half? As this is a hitting thread it basically applies.
Here are the numbers:
Greg Golson Walk Rate
1st Half: 5.3% (14 in 264 AB)
2nd Half: 11.8% (15 in 127 AB)
His avg is down 40+ points but he’s walking at over double his previous rate…whatya think it means?
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1 – Marson – Age and position along with solid OBP skills make him #1.
2 – Golson – This high ranking may be a little controversial but he has taken a big step forward.
3 – Donald – I think he can be a solid major leaguer. His ceiling is lower than others however.
4 – Brown – Solid OBP skills and the power will come.
5 – D’Arnaud – Big step forward offensively.
6 – Collier – Impressive start for 17-year-old
7 – Taylor – Another big step forward. Ranks behind Collier because of ceiling and 5 years of age (3 levels ahead)
8 – Galvis – It is really hard to rate defense, but I think Galvis can be a .350 OBP guy.
9 – Hewitt – Here because of ceiling though I have the same doubts as everyone else.
10 – Valle – 17-year-old catcher needs to add power but has plenty of time
Just missed: Myers, Castro, Gose, Durant, Overbeck, Mattair, Harman, Slayden
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Galvis hit .170 in his first month in A ball, since then he’s been a .277 hitter. That’s pretty damn good for an 18 year old playing full season baseball. He’s shown good plate discipline. Definitely excited about him.
Also still don’t get the dislike of Harman right now, yes he doesn’t have a good average. But how do rate guys like Slayden who are 4 years older than him with less upside the same? Or rating someone like Susdorf who is the same age and in short season A ball?
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Sorry but taking proximity to the majors into effect, its very tough to list 10 hitting prospects. Donald and Marson are the 2 givens and Taylor has been sensational at Clearwater, which obviously means a lot more than Lakewood. Berry has gotten himself back on the radar with a terrific 2nd half. Dom Brown has great upside but let’s actually see him do more before we anoiny him. D’Arnaud has had a great two months and plays a hard position well so he’s a prospect. That’s it for me unless you want to count this year’s high selections. The other guys are all filler or unproven. Mattair and Galvis positively have potential but they’ll need to show a whole lot more next year, back in Lakewood most likely. Its not an impressive list to be sure. Fortunately the pitchers list looks much better and you can usually trade pitchers for hitters.
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NEPP –
Maybe it means he’s facing some wild pitchers. 8) Actually that’s an interesting number. I also seem to recall that he started out this year with a high (for him) amount of walks – something like 10 in his first 100 ABs.
My guess is that it’s either a statistical quirk, or there are occasional stretches where he becomes more patient for some strange reason.
– Jeff
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does anyone here really believe that when you get past the top 5-6 of most people’s lists (Marson, Donald, Taylor, D’arnaud,Brown) that anyone else is a sure fire ML’er? I don’t think so. To me all the rest have too much to prove and aren’t doing enough at the level/age that they’re at. The rest to me are orgzational filler and if they improve maybe they can be bench players or maybe for some of the younger guys they will develop (Hewitt/Collier/Overbeck) That’s not horrible for an organzation but I would think we’d be hardpressed to argue that our orgnazational strenghth is pitching right now.
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Are they sure fire Major Leaguers? No
Does that meant hey are Org fillers? No
If you look at things by production, then sure you can make outlandish statements like that. But when you look at projection, production, age, etc you will see their is a difference.
Org filler = college players with low ceilings drafted at age 21/22. 18/19/20 year olds with legitimate upside.
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are not
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If you want to go on projection of players with less than 100 at bats. every one we drafted this year and last should be on the list. You don’t draft guys you don’t project to be major league hitters.
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I think a guy generally moves from prospect to org filler when he crosses the age 25/26 plateau.
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XFactor. That’s the problem there isn’t ten players in this system.
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1. Marson
2. Donald
3. Taylor
4. Brown
5. d’Arnaud
6. Golson
7. Collier
8. Valle
9. Galvis
10. Overbeck
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On Golson, I was just looking at his monthly splits and August is starting to look like April and May – solid BA, OBP 50 pts above BA, and SLG in high 400s/low500s. Is it possible that he’s just now getting back into form after being out of commission in June/July? Could this be the real GG and June/July were injury induced? One can always hope…
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to me its an opinion and i could say that i NEVER see Freddy Galvis for example being a major leaguer of any substance. See Eric Bruntlett with less power. Some will argue but i dont’ see his bat making him anything more than a .200 hitter with no power in the majors. Yes he’s only 18 and there’s still projectability (is that a word??) there and he’s doing OK this year but do you see him gaining the 50+ lbs it would take to play a 162 game season in the majors? Sorry but I don’t. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see it.
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Rocky,
Not sure you’re grasping the whole concept of this exercise. The question isn’t to list the 10 prospects the Phillies have who are most likely to become ML players but rather to list the top-10 prospects according to what you believe to be their future. For example, TJ Bohn is more likely to make it to the majors (since he already has seen some time) than D. Brown but no one is fooled into thinking he is a top-10 prospect…
Like some, I avoided recently drafted players like Collier or Hewitt because IMO they haven’t done enough yet to make an impression but I can certainly understand those who do.
To state that other poster aren’t being serious with their lists because you happen to disagree with their decisions or methodology is rather insulting.
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Freddy Galvis can put on 10-20 pounds over the next 5 years and handle a 162 game major league schedule just fine. The question for him is offense. He really needs to put up a .700 OPS or thereabouts to even be an average major leaguer. If he is above average on defense and below average on offense it all balances out to some degree. Basically if he can hit .270 with 60 BBs and 20 SBs he is probably an above average major leaguer. The equivalent OF with average defense would probably need to hit .300 with 25 HR and an .850 OPS to be the same level of prospect.
Galvis is a very difficult player to rate because his talents are so unique. The Phillies may be better off developing an offensive shortstop like Donald because of the nature of their park. But that has no bearing on Galvis’ prospect status. If he hits .270 he will have lots of trade value moving up the ladder.
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andyb,
i agree that Galvis can put that weight on over the next several years, but you just described Adam Everett (as a comparable player) IF Galvis develops as you say. Sorry, I’ve gotten used to Jimmy Rollins, warts and all. That’s not to say he couldn’t breakout similar to what Taylor’s done, but I just don’t see it. Also to me Galvis’ offensive inadequacies will likely worsen when he reaches Clearwater, Reading and so on against better pitchers. Again I’ll be the first one to come on here and eat crow if I’m wrong, but I’m afraid I may be right. Only time will tell I guess.
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galvis is hard to evaluate…he has a lot of things going for him in both pro and con categories. first, and importantly he is 18 at full season A, and has improved from last year across the board offensively. at some point he will repeat a level (likely A+ or AA) and play age appropriate. he doesn’t strike out a lot, and has improved his walk rate from last year. he should fill out that 154 pound frame with at least 20 more pounds the next 3 years.
not to like: no power. he’s improved his hitting to a whopping 292 SLG, not very good. he probably needs to slug between .350 and .400 to achieve an omar vizquel-ish ceiling. average is still low. and for a non-power guy, doesn’t steal a lot of bases, only 12/5 this year. we should learn more about galvis in the next couple of years.
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I was not trying to insult anyone. If they think that I am sorry
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Mike –
I get what you are saying, though I still think the projection for Galvis is between Everett and Vizquel. He does not have to Vizquel on offense to be an average major league SS. Everett is a career .246 hitter and I think Galvis has a little more potential than that.
Comparing Galvis to Taylor is interesting but really hard to do. Taylor is having a breakout season but he is still 4 years older than Galvis and only 1 level ahead. Galvis has shown substantial growth and he is really, really young. Think about the offensive stats he might put up at Lakewood if he spent the next 3 seasons there. Then when he moved up to Clearwater he would be the same age as Taylor. Then you factor in the difference in positions. There is a difference of about 100 OPS points between the average SS and corner outfielder (.695 for SS, just short of .786-798 for LF-RF from 1987-2002). Then factor in that Galvis’ defense is more of a plus than Taylor’s defense (which is still good). Thus you would probably come up with a formula saying that Taylor needs an OPS maybe .125 better than Galvis in the majors to be the equivalent player in terms of total value.
I ranked Taylor 7 and Galvis 8 because I think their prospect value is pretty similar. Taylor is a little closer, but Galvis has age and position skills working for him. Galvis really only needs an OPS in the 700-750 range to have the same kind of breakout year that Taylor is having and he has 3-4 more years to do that.
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Jeff O – I can understand him not being on most lists but I do favor him, but I don’t think 10 is ridiculous considering all aspects of the ranking.
I would have loved to put Galvis on there but he is having a lot of trouble hitting.
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Galvis is a wizard with the glove and will save lots of runs for pitchers in our park since we need a staff that induces grounders.
I expect him to be better than Bowa both offensively and defensively. This is one you need to see to appreciate.
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Slayden is another guy who grows on you when watched over time. I like him much better than Jenkins and he is vastly superior to Bohn.
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I was 6’2″, 165 when I was 18 and I played sports in all 4 seasons and lifted weights…I was just skinny…like Galvis. 10 years later I’m still pretty thin but I’m 205 lbs. Galvis is just a teenager…he’s gonna naturally put on 30 lbs in the next 3-4 years even if he wasn’t working out. Since his “job” is to play baseball I guarantee he’ll have more time to devote to hitting the gym than I did at his age. My only concern with Freddy is that he develops just enough bat to make his amazing defensive ability shown at the MLB level.
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1.Taylor
2. Donald
3. Marson
4. D’Arnaud
5. Brown
6. Golson
7. Susdorf
8. Valle
9. Casro
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rather ambiguous, but, the question was “top 10 hitters.” i didn’t take that as “top 10 position players.”
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Galvis is 18 years old. To say that he will never make it to the majors or improve as a hitter is just absurd.
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1. Marson – big year in 09 and hes a top 15 BA prospect.
2. Donald – only question is where will he play for us.
3. Taylor – skys the limit if he keeps this up next year.
4. Golson – really mixed on him, needs a big year in 09.
5. Brown – would like to see him moved up asap.
6. d’Arnaud – still far away but Marson-like ceiling is there.
7. Collier – 5 tool potential and looking great for age.
8. Valle – Havnt seen enough to know if hes the real deal, 09 will be big for him.
9. Harman – completely disagree with all the bashing here. cmon guys he’s only 22 in AA, and did well in A+ at 21! give him another year in AA at least.
10. L Castro – small sample but has looked really great.
Honorable Mentions:
Overbeck – showing nice power but prob not a 3B? 😦
H Garcia – small sample ala Castro but has also been great.
Jaramillo – quietly raised ba to .264, 8hrs, decent year.
Galvis – Great D but bat is still years away.
Berry – has the speed but not much else.
The rest:
Harris – too old with not enough upside.
Slayden – ditto
Hewitt – would love to include him, but has done absolutely nothing to warrant being in the top 10 or even top 15.
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Marson — A legit major league starting catcher in 2010, possibly our backup catcher in 2009, at least 2nd half, great obp, very comfortable and agile behind the plate. I think he is a major league All Star at some point in his career.
Donald — The bat is there with just under a .900 OPS in AA, reasonably age appropriate. Unlike Marson, who is 2 years younger with a primo position he can clearly handle and just a slightly lower OPS, Donald seems to project as just an adequate SS or a 2B. Hopefully he can play 3B, but a little lacking in power for that. A significant step down from Marson.
Taylor — This was tight. I really like Brown, also, but with extended time in A+ with a better than .900 OPS (I admit this snuck up on me and I had Brown above Taylor yesterday) I see Taylor as a shade better, even though 2 years older and only a level ahead. I think he can be a solid starting corner OF. Don’t see a future All Star here, but very solid chance to reach majors. He was old to start at Lakewood, still a little old to finish at CLW, but not seriously out of line.
Brown — Fully age appropriate for A- level, playing in a pitcher’s park, legit speed, very good obp, I’d like to see more power. Given who else the Phillies have, he may be a tweener between CF and corner OF. I think he can start, not expecting any All Star appearances in the bigs.
D’Arnauld – At 19 he is age appropriate for NYP league, but if he were viewed as ready, Phillies would have started him at A- as they did others. His star has risen with good D and an OPS above .800. Too low a level for me to project him as good as Marson, but his ceiling may be even higher. Still, not comfortable rating a short-season guy higher than this,
Collier — Not fully comfortable with him this high. Dearth of other position players that stand out? As a raw guy, he has done a lot better this year than I expected. While not great, .716 OPS is at least holding his own and he is a young HS grad. I usually ignore first year HS picks in these ratings, but he signed early enough to have over 100 ABs. To editorialize for those who put Hewitt on their lists — he is an old HS pick, about 1-1/2 years older than Collier, with I think about the same upside on toolsiness, but a .596 OPS — in just about 100 ABs — is far from holding your own.
Golson — He’s hitting a LOT better than he did at this time last season. At 22 he is age appropriate for AA. He has shown some decent power. A .776 OPS is not great, but I think it was chipped away because of wrist injury. Both before and now post-recovery he has been .800+. Very good arm. legit speed, good D — although he still makes mistakes. Not sure what he projects to. I think he is a Victorino clone in major league performance.
Valle — Another catcher. I think catcher is currently the highest value position in baseball. See comments on Collier — Valle is young and with a .759 OPS at least holding his own, but at a more valuable position.
Galvis– Really, really young at 18 for full-season ball and a defensive wizard, whose hitting has improved as the season progressed. Still, that will just pull him above .600 OPS for the season, which really is less than holding your own, even in a pitcher’s park. But that is whole season, he is better at end. Still skinny. He still needs to prove he can hit, but reasonable to project as a starting major league SS.
Jaramillo — I like his D and he has hit better as the season progressed, but season only up to .706 OPS. He looked early on like a guy who had rotted on the vine with too long a stay in minors. He turns 26 in October, which should be a month after call up to majors. He can put in his 6 seasons as a backup catcher in Philly. I think he looks good behind the plate and he blocks balls well. If he is our major league starter, I think we have a problem.
Mattair — He’s 19, but he’s only got a .640 OPS, which doesn’t get it done. I likely have him too high on projection. Consider him moved down to Honorable Mention and I’m putting Jaramillo as my #1.
Honorable Mention
Berry — Very legit speed, but turing 24 soon after your A+ season is too old, and an OPS of .703 is too low.
Susdorf — A .932 OPS, but 22 years old. Sentimental choice as College WS star, but he likely can be a major league 4th or 5th OF.
Kennelly — Still seems like a legit prospect, but hard to understand the Phillies plan for him.
Overbeck — Like Susdorf he is 22, but his OPS doesn’t quite reach .800. He’s here because we really need a 3B and I’m trying to convince myself he is more than an organizational guy.
Slayden — Not a glove man, but watching him at Reading, his D is better than advertised. He has always hit well, but an .838 OPS for a 26 year old puts him on the organizational filler dividing line. He can likely be a 5th OF, based on his bat. A better choice as a fill-in next season than TJ Bohn was this year.
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Jamie — I obviously took it as top 10 position players, or I certainly wouldn’t have included Galvis. Top 10 only in hitting seems like a dumb list to me.
Danno — Sorry, just can’t include Harman. Perhaps should have considered him for Honorable Mention, based on a good glove. He could hit next year, but he certainly hasn’t hit this year. Yes, he has 14 HR, but a .282 obp really sucks. To me, it says he is trying to be something he isn’t and has really messed himself up in the process. He strikes out as much as Golson and lacks speed. I was excited about him at start of season, but couldn’t stay excited watching him bat. He is a very legit glove man.
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Don’t count Slayden out—–look at Ryan Ludwick’s year. He was obviously counted out by everyone and is achieving greatly at 29. I am not at all ready to count out Harris but have only seen him play a couple times.
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tafkamb–
you just like him becaue he reminds yourself of you at 18. I never said never, but i don’t know that Galvis is the “prospect” that people tout. I’d love to be wrong and will gladly admit years down the road if i am.
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off topic but Kyle Slate was listed as the starter but faced no batters today for the GCL team. Anyone hear what’s the story?
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Why is marston being talked about for 2010.If his defense is near ruiz then next year give him a chance. At least he will take a walk.
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If you posted your Top 10 hitters in another post (shame on you!)…
Oops!
So re-posting from yesterday then, but with a couple of explanations (since I’m bored). Oh, and I too took this as a list of best position prospects.
1. Marson. Love the OBP ability at a premium defensive position. If he’s not in BA’s Top 100, it’s a crime.
2. Donald. Rose to the challenge again at Reading this year, and should work at 3B in the AFL so he can take over Bruntlett’s job next year.
3. d’Arnaud. Was going to put Brown here until I realized that Travis’ age 19 season at Williamsport (.833 OPS, 9.3% BB, .154 ISO) actually outdid Brown’s (.756 OPS, 8.7% BB, .105 ISO). And not to be repetitive, but he’s at a premium defensive position.
4. Brown. Gets the nod over Taylor because of age (20 instead of 22) and superior plate discipline (BB:K of 63:72 instead of 44:81). Power should come as he fills out.
5. Taylor. The only thing that gives me pause is the walk ratio (6.25% at Clearwater). If he succeeds at Reading — where he should start next year — then he should be ready by sometime in 2010 at the latest.
6. Golson. Major strides forward this year, but the plate discipline still scares me. Will never be a .350 OBP guy, but can provide value if he plays an excellent CF and posts an OPS in the high-.700 range.
7. Collier. Yes, it’s tough to evaluate based on a couple of at bats in the GCL, but you can’t ignore an 11.6% BB rate from a 17-year old who’s still raw. Hopefully he’s challenged at Lakewood next year.
8. Galvis. The good — his solid 35:46 K:BB means he’s got good plate discipline, and his .265 BABIP means he’s probably been a bit unlucky. The bad — a 10.4% LD% means he’s not making solid contact when he hits, but hopefully that changes as he physically matures.
9. Valle. Doing very well in the GCL, especially for a catcher. Yeah, yeah, he’s upgraded for playing a premium defensive position (sorry for being repetitive).
10. Berry. Yeah, it gets ugly right about here. Berry should make a decent 5th outfielder at some point, and I like the plate discipline, speed, and defensive ability. But the ceiling is obviously not too high.
It was a toss-up between Jaramillo and Berry for #10 — and obviously, neither of them is very thrilling. Slayden would have made beaten them but for his age. Still, whatever shortcomings Jaramillo/Berry possess, I couldn’t justify a spot for Mattair and/or Hewitt in the Top 10 because they’re not showing any plate discipline at all yet. I’ll wait and see on guys like Susdorf, Hamilton, and Hanzawa — Overbeck’s 7:52 BB:K frightens me. Oh, and mark me down as having Matt Rizzotti as a sleeper.
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I think it’s clear that there’s a top 6 (in no particular order, Marson, Donald, Taylor, Golson, Brown, D’Arnaud) and then everybody else. I’m not sure if that speaks to the strength of the top 6 or the weakness of the rest of the system.
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Ducky I had a hard time after five. Because I didn’t include Golson. I wonder if there is another system this bad in position players.
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I saw some of you guys talk about Donald’s lack of power and low ceiling. I wasn’t watching MiLB closely at all when Utley was going through the system, so I gotta ask the more wise how does he compare to any of the “promising infielders” a la Marson, Donald etc. in terms of MiLB careers, development to date (and in relation to the level they are/he was) and numbers?
I just remember Arbuckle saying that when he was scouted they knew of the average defense and the high BA, but they never saw the power coming – so where in the system did Chutley turn the corner and develop into a massive hitting threat and #3 in this lineup? – all assuming current trend is just a slump and he does start delivering again of course;l otherwise I clearly jinxed him.
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oops sorry for the double post James. Please delete one of them.
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Dominic Brown’s season over with a separated left shoulder.
Really upsetting news for both he and all Phillies’ fans. Now we all must hope that it heals properly and there is limited-to-no chronic pain for him.
He’s a guy that doesn’t generate as much publicity as he should.
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I don’t usually start to get excited about prospects until they reach AA and can hold their own like Carresco, Donald, and Marson. There is one guy I think we are overlooking a bit. Derrick Mitchell offers versatility, and is a virtual doubles machine. He is second on the Blueclaws in RBI. He just might become a prospect.
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Ouch, tough break for both D. Brown and the BlueClaws, who lose their best hitter for the stretch run. I’m no doctor, but while it’s unfortunate that it’s his throwing shoulder, methinks the proper rest should have him back at 100% for the start of next season.
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1. Marson
2. Taylor
3. Donald
4. D’Arnaud
5. Brown
6. Golson
7. Mattair
8. Collier
9. Castro
10. Valle
11. Sussdorf
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Too bad about Brownie. Only an MRI will tell the real problem. Oftentimes seperated shoulders are labrum problems.
Nice to see Karl Bolt come off the bench and do what he did so well for four years at Air Force, win games with his bat. He doesn’t seem to get any of the accolades he deserves from our reporters up in Lakewood. Also key was Galvis getting on in last night’s game to set up a one out situation instead of two outs.
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In this morning’s Lakewood paper:
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080820/SPORTS0301/80820082/1002/SPORTS
Jon
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Once you separate a shoulder its never the same. That sucks for Brown.
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Erin makes an interesting comment about Derrick Mitchell, but I’m far more intrigued by Michael Durant. These two are almost exactly the same age, and while Mitchell has defensive flexibility and a higher contact rate, Durant has a much higher walk rate and has that most unteachable of hitting talents, power. While Durant isn’t young for his league, a few adjustments at the plate would make him a serious prospect.
For anyone who’s seen him play, can you give me a sense of what he looks like at the plate? Does he just swing for the fences? Is he patient? Does he have trouble with off-speed pitches?
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NEPP.Are you saying he is not ever going to be able to get better, He is a good prospect by your comments. He is not going to be the same player and how does he get better if the shoulder doesn’t’ heal right.
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It can be a chronic injury that can potentially haunt Brown for the rest of his life, not just his baseball career. Chronic pain, discomfort, etc.
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I hope the injury to Brown is not too serious. The article linked to above says that it’s a similar one to an injury he sustained earlier this year. In one sense, that’s encouraging, since he was able to bounce back fairly quickly and w/o too much impairment. But there’s probably only so much damage a body can take…So we’ll just have to wait and see.
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I like the top ten lists PP. I’d like to see a pair of top ten questions to follow these up with. Who are each posters top ten favorite prospects to follow and why. Followed by top ten prospects each poster believes to be most overrated and why.
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No not at all. Medically though, once you dislocate your shoulder you are much more prone to repeating that injury. Its similar to be a victim or a cold weather injury or a hot weather injury. It doesn’t mean its gonna continue to be an issue but the odds are against him not reinjuring it again. It shouldn’t derail his career though.
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I meant to say separate your shoulder…not dislocate though the meaning is essentially the same.
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I’ve seen Durant. One real positive thing is his defense. For a big guy he really is outstanding at first base. As for his hitting, he seems to have some trouble with high hard stuff. Off speed gets him out on his front foot early. He has fair plate discipline, doesn’t make contact enough, and doesn’t recognize pitches well. He’s pretty much been this way since being signed, which isn’t a good sign.
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I have a question on Leandro Castro. What is his projectability. I see he is making quite a few people’s top 10 list. To me, he seems like a smallish OF who lacks great speed and has not put up great hitting stacks, with almost no walks, while not being super young for GCL. What am I missing?
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1. Marson (by far the best plate discipline)
2. Donald (average power, but he hits well to all fields and has good pitch recognition)
3. Taylor (absolutely crushing the ball right now, best power bat in the organization and his plate discipline has improved dramatically)
4. Golson (does just about everything pretty well, but he really needs to become a more patient hitter in the long run. i’m sold on him having major league talent, just don’t know if he can start.)
5. D’Arnaud (behind Marson as the best catcher in the organization, but just barely. his hitting has caught up to his masterful defensive abilities and he’s really starting to turn some heads)
6. Brown (consistency, as many have said, is his biggest attribute. he’s started to show signs of the power projections that came along with his 6’5″ frame, and he’s incredibly efficient at the plate and on the base paths)
7. Valle (solid catching prospects are tough to come by, but valle makes the third on my list. despite his known struggles against lefties he’s managed to post some solid numbers in the GCL, most notably his .743 OPS through 45 games. for a kid who just turned 18 last month, you gotta like that)
8. Collier (despite a recent slump the 17 year old is still hitting .274 and he’s looked very promising against lefties and has been improving otherwise, this is pure projection but he’s lived up to his billing so far)
9. Galvis (let’s not kid ourselves, the offensive numbers are bad. improved, yes, but still bad overall. he has no power whatsoever, but his improved ability to get on base has been a great sign. still by far the best defensive player in the organization, he could easily see the bigs solely based on his glove and arm alone)
10. Jaramillo (despite a very poor first half, Jaramillo is putting together a nice season at AAA. i had very high hopes for him, but the poor start doesn’t preclude him from being a future backup ML catcher. the defensive is solid, not stellar and the bat is impressive against righties…lefties, not so much. he still deserves to be on this list and i definitely think he can be productive given the chance)
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You got to wonder about Hewitt with those 52 strike outs in 103 at bats in rookie ball. But no young ML hitting rospects at AAA. Jaramillo should be moved and given another opportuniy in another organization. At AA you have Marson, Donald and Golson. At High A it’s Michael Taylor and Q. Berry. At Low A its Dominic Brown, Tavis D’Arnaud, and Freddy Galvis. Michael Durant for power and Joel Naughton lefthanded hitting and catching defense will at some point play in the Major leagues somewhere. Jury still out on many ML hitting prospects at Short Season but Valle is the lefthanded hitting catcher of the future and Harold Garcia with his .905 OPS need to get consideration as future major league bats at Rookie ball. Still want to see more of Collier and other young hitters now at the rookie level.
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Thanks Erin, I appreciate it. I agree with your conclusion, although one can always hope…
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“He doesn’t seem to get any of the accolades he deserves from our reporters up in Lakewood”
we have reporters in lakewood?? i haven’t seen a report in weeks 😉
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The jury is out for me with Castro as well. He did show more power last year in the DSL and his speed is supposed to be a 6.7 in the 60. Baseball America listed him as the top offensive prospect on the team last year over Valle when they did that piece on their win streak. I definitely would want to see more walks out of him or he will have lots of trouble with better pitching.
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“He doesn’t seem to get any of the accolades he deserves from our reporters up in Lakewood”
Guess I was confusing the reporting going on over at Phiiliesphans. The girl over there is so fixated on Rizotti that there are times she doesn’t even mention the other guys. Bolt is hitting .333 in his last ten games, and they seem to win a lot more with him in the line-up, but even tonight, again no mention. It was the same way when Dennis Winn was playing well, and never any mention of Kennelley. Why aren’t we getting any reports on this site from Lakewood? Especially from someone who actually goes out and watches the game, rather than just listening to all the gossip up in Section 107?
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Remember, that the people who do the reports for this site are doing it purely on a volunteer basis, and sometimes don’t have the time to scour over box scores and do write ups.
That being said, I may try to get to a Lakewood game next weekend, and I’ll gladly babble incessantly about what I see.
– Jeff
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Jeff,
interested to see what you think of D’arnaud as well as whatever pitcher starts that you get to see. hopefully for your sake you get stutes, Worley or Cisco. Sampson would be good too. Just no AE please, no AE.
Any thoughts anyone to the ML club bringing up Marson and or Donald to break the team out of their offensive doldrums? It worked for the Mets when they brought up Evans and Murphy.
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Dan, our Lakewood guy, apparently had some stuff come up and has been unable to write the reports. There wasn’t much time left in the season so it didn’t seem like it was worth it to try and find someone for the last few weeks. I’ll look for someone new for Lakewood next year.
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I don’t get the suggestion that Bolt is a prospect, who is slighted by PG on the other board. Bolt is a 23 year old 1B, who should be raking. Yet, he has an OPS of .699. That is not at all good. That doesn’t even say fringe prospect to me.
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