I have a few random (and a few not so random) thoughts today, and then I’ll open the floor for discussion. So lets just get right to it.
* I wanted to make a remark about the recent direction the site has been heading. This is NOT a website for discussing the major league team. If you want to discuss the Phillies, the major league team, there are TONS of websites out there, including a really well written blog here. If you just have to talk about the latest Carlos Ruiz AB, you can find tons of message boards and blogs where that would be appropriate. My sole intention for starting this site was to discuss the minor leagues and the amateur side relating to the Phillies, because I felt that was an area that was lacking. Its my intention to keep it that way. I’ve generally been lenient with regard to moderating these types of discussions, and I’ve allowed lots of non-related talk. Well, from this point on, I’m just going to remove comments that are off topic. Its that simple. If your post disappears, its either because you posted tons of links in one reply (those get caught in moderation momentarily, they’ll show up once approved) or because you posted something that has nothing to do with the minor leagues. Its really disrespectful to my volunteers here who put in a lot of time writing a weekly report to have people discussing Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz in their weekly post. Its not going to happen anymore.
* I also wanted to touch on the idea of differing opinions. I welcome differing opinions. I expect them. But I will ask again that if you have a differing opinion that you present it in a rational manner with facts to back it up. If you’re presenting an opinion, thats fine, but if you’re presenting something as fact, please provide the facts to support your claim. A storm broke out regarding the signing deadline for the draft, lots of incorrect assumptions were tossed around, things got heated, and it wasn’t good for discussion. What drives the discussion here is informed debate from both sides. I’d never censor discussion here, but at the same time I’m trying to play moderator I also have an opinion, and when someone makes statements that clearly aren’t true, I’m going to react. I do my best to be calm, but sometimes my aggressive nature gets the better of me. I ask that you provide facts to back up your statement, and I’ll do the same. 95% of the time here, the discussion is just fine, so I think we’re ahead of the game in that regard anyway.
* I’m toying with the idea of creating a discussion board linked from this site where people are more free to discuss things outside the constraints of the WordPress format. At this point, I don’t know the feasibility of this idea, in terms of cost and time. I think it might make things run a little more smoothly, along with the integration of the Wiki site. But there are only so many hours in the day, so its a project that will take some time if it goes through. If you have experience setting up and maintaining message boards, you should email me and give me the basics and kind of explain to me what it will require. I can find this info if I look, but having someone with direct experience lay it out will help speed up the process.
All of that said, I actually have some baseball to discuss…
* The 2008 draft. What can I say, really. I’ve been following the minors for probably 10 years, maybe even longer, and this is the best draft I can remember in my lifetime. Whether any of these guys ever make it to the majors is secondary to me. When looking at the draft, I don’t think its really fair to judge the final results, its more about the process. That may seem like a crazy statement, but not really. When you factor in the odds against players making it to the majors, it makes you focus more on how the Phillies go about adding talent. You can draft tons of guys with a ton of talent, but if they stumble along the way, that’s not something you can really predict before they are draft, because really, if you could predict that, you wouldn’t draft those guys in the first place. The sole motivation going into a draft should be to add as many high ceiling, potential impact talents as possible, and then see which guys pan out. Last year, like many years before it, the Phillies didn’t really take advantage of the draft, taking lots of low ceiling college guys in the first 15-20 rounds, and signing only one high ceiling high school guy (Julian Sampson) in the later rounds. This year, the Phillies radically changed course, spending well over slot money in the first 10 rounds as well as adding a 38th round high school signability guy. I’m going to write more extensively on the draft, but I’m still putting together numbers, so that will come at a later time, I just kind of wanted to give general remarks now that the deadline has passed.
* Travis D’Arnaud was recently promoted to Lakewood, and so far, he’s acclimating himself to A ball quite well. In his first 3 games he’s gone 6/13 with 2 doubles. D’Arnaud, a supplemental first round pick in 2007, was conservatively assigned to Williamsport this year after spending last summer in the GCL. He performed well in the NYPL to the tune of a .309/.371/.463 line in 175 AB. The report on him was defense first, with a bat that should develop, but Keith Law was signing his praises in the last Q/A he did for us here, and liked the bat more than others. Keith looks like he hit on that one, and D’Arnaud is now at Lakewood. I’d expect he’ll start back there next season, catching a slew of promising arms with a possible promotion to Clearwater next summer. Sebastian Valle will more than likely move to Williamsport next summer and follow D’Arnaud up the ladder.
* Its time for a Joe Savery update. This season has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Joe, starting with a solid April (2.92 ERA), a really rough May (7.56 ERA) and then a somewhat inconsistent June and July, a few appearances at DH mixed in, and utter dominance in August, posting a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings. Over Savery’s last 55 innings, he has a 2.77 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 45 K. In those 55 innings you’ll also find his disastrous July 31st outing where he was tagged for 8 ER in 1 IP. If you remove that outing, his ERA drops down to an eye popping 1.50 and his WHIP to 1.07 in the 54 innings pitched. The problem, in my estimation, is that people came into this season with unrealistic expectations, including Joe himself. When he was drafted, the Phillies brass talked about him being healthy and moving fast, and Joe was even aspiring to be a September callup. Lofty goals are fine, but they aren’t the things we should be judging prospects on. Savery was jumped over Low A all together, not that uncommon for college starters with polish, but not everyone dominates in their first full season. Well, over his last 6 weeks (sans 1 start), Joe has been flat out dominant. No, he’s not ready for the bigs now, and he probably won’t be ready next season, but he’s certainly regained his prospect status, and when I update my rolling Top 30, he’ll move up a few spots. Say it again, removing the one terrible outing, he has a 1.50 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 54 IP. Of course those bad outings still count against his overall numbers, but they can potentially skew an otherwise positive pitching line.
* EDIT —-> According to Baseball America, Cosart’s signing bonus was $550K. That’s a huge statement by the Phillies front office. HUGE.
Phuture Phillies 
Jaramillo- Where does everyone see him next yr? 1- Lehigh, 2- Philly, 3- Some other team?
E. Garcia- Are we worried yet?
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Going with the “Rule of 20” (or whatever it is called), should we be concerned with Savery’s inning totals – a quick check has him at 139 on the year, and his totals last year, according to Baseball cube, were 120.
Also, I just wanted to throw this out there: I’ll be going to see Reading this Friday, and usually I focus on paying close attention to a couple of players. I believe Carpenter will be on the hill (sadly, I might miss Eaton’s turn), and I really want a firsthand look at Golson (in particular how he responds to breaking balls). Does anyone have a particular player that they would like me to “scout?”
– Jeff
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Carpenter’s start on Friday is HUGE imo. He got tagged yesterday and really need him to show the maturity and mental toughness to bounce back and not get the “not again” attitude going.
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I also really love this draft. I differ a little in approach. It is certainly good to have a lot of high ceiling draftees, but in evaluating a pick, you need to include probability of success as well as ceiling. There is (very high risk)/(very high reward), but I don’t think this trumps (high reward)/(moderate risk), especially with primo first round picks, where you should be able to find a relatively high ceiling without going super risk. So, I loved it when we picked a very athletic, very raw D’Arby Myers and Brown, but was not as happy with Golson and quite unhappy with Hewitt. I think, at least for the Phillies, toolsy HS position players are about the riskiest possible first round choice. I’d prefer a HS arm over the super raw athlete, even given the arm injury risk. By far, my first choice for a first rounder is a college position player. Reasonably high ceiling should be achievable. As you move out of the first round, you can go riskier and higher ceiling. But Hewitt is really my only objection to the draft, and I would have been satisfied with the somewhat less raw Collier as the first pick, so since we also got Collier as great value in the comp round, I probably shouldn’t complain too much. I hope Gose pitches. Knapp, Cosart, Pettibone, Schreve, Gose, May, Rodriguez, Arroyo is a really nice collection of arms to add to the lower farm.
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I’m not worried about Garcia, as long as he is healthy. He did very well at CLW. A late season bump to a fading AA team at age 20 is no walk in the park. This really should be viewed as giving him a taste of AA to see for himself how much better the competition is and what he needs to work on before next April.
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phuturephillies,
i realize that i have been in the past one of those that spent a little too much time talking about the ML club and how it relates to the minors and i for one will be more cognizant of not doing that here. I (and know others do too) appreciate all the time you and the volunteers put in and appreciate it.
went to the blueclaws game yesterday, mostly to see Stutes but lucked out with D’arnaud’s promotion. I realize its an extemely small sample set but this kid looks good, VERY GOOD. He had a great double off the left field wall and hit everything hard. Obviously his defense would need working on but I wouldn’t mind seeing if he keeps up the next 3 weeks them push him to Clearwater.
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The thing is, there is a time and place for us to discuss the ramifications of the prospects on the big league club, but that place isn’t in a weekly report on the Lakewood team, or on a post talking about Joe Savery. We’ll focus more on that stuff this offseason, but it will have its place. That was my message on that.
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Interesting to see if D’Arnaud can compare with Naughton defensively at Lakewood. Naughton threw out 38.5% of base stealing attempts there and committed 6 errors in 86 games. D’Arnaud threw out 22.5% at Williamsport and in 46 games and committed 6 errors. Both DH’d a few games. He has committed one throwing error and is 1 for 2 in caught stealing so far in three games with the Blue Claws.
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I don’t know how good Jaramillo defense is but, we can’t continue with ruiz and his no offense.Coste in my opion is a once a week player.I have watch coste bat with no outs and down runs. He never seems to work a walk he will swing at anything.Hope the phillies give marston a chance in spring training.
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Rickey Branch I wonder how much of the base stealing stats is related to , How pitchers hold runners on. If a pitcher can’t hold a runner on then the catcher is helpless.
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phuturephils, does Savery’s season mean he’s got a fair chance at Reading in the Spring?
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Oh btw, not sure if anyone ever mentioned this. But the reason D’Arnaud was promoted is Naughton got injured and is probably done for the year. So he will be playing catcher day in and day out for the Blue claws.
I agree with the take on Edgar Garcia, the Phils were very aggressive promoting him to Reading at the tender age of 20. I’m basically throwing everything he does out the rest of this year and giving him a clean slate next year to see how he does.
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D’Arnaud was very impressive when I watched him play in person…both defensively and offensively (He has that feel of a catcher if that makes sense…looks comfortable behind the plate). He does have a quick release and accurate arm os his CS% might be something to do with the guy on teh mound.
I really like what’s Savery’s done lately. Its a very good sign for him and I assume he’ll be at Reading next spring so that will be a real test for him.
Considering how well Ruiz has been in the past month, I doubt Jaramillo would be an improvement so I wouldn’t expect him up before 1 Sept…he’d likely be a 3rd catcher when rosters expand though.
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I think Jaramillo is the co-starter with Ruiz next season and Coste is an emergency backup and bat off the bench. I’ve seen Jaramillo in 3 games early in the year, where he was absolutely pathetic with the bat, as well as 3 later games where I thought he looked pretty good. He struck me as more than solid catching and blocking balls behind the plate and solid in his throws to 2B. He seems quite comfortable defensively. I don’t know why he was so bad offensively early on, perhaps getting glum about another year of AAA. He really deserves to be in the big leagues and it will be an injustice, as well as reducing the Phillies chances, if he doesn’t get a Sept promotion. I’d promote him earlier and make him playoff eligible.
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Yo Rocky:
Adrian said to tell you it’s not “jungle rat”, it’s “jungle CAT”.
And it’s not Lou Marston, it’s Lou MARSON.
Oh, and she’s working late at the pet store tonight.
Go get ’em champ.
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allentown: marson will be on the squad next year. i believe its even been reported that the phillies wouldn’t trade him because he was in their plans for next year.
and one of their local scouts said that he’s pudge rodriguez redux.
jaramillo just got caught up in a numberes game.
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I love Marson, but he’ll never be half the catcher that Pudge was in his prime.
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I’d be willing to start Savery in CLW until the weather warms-up up north next year. Not sure how he’d react to that, but I’m trying to keep that arm in one piece…
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While I think the Phillies do a poor job hyping their own prospects, theres no way you can compare Marson to a surefire first ballot HoF. Thats not fair to anyone.
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hey, just relaying what a phillies scout said. they absolutely love this guy.
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Maybe that scout should talk to Mike Arbuckle then!
And I almost feel obligated to mention — yup, you guessed it — Michael Taylor. Again. Dude’s up to .342/.392/.546 with a .204 ISO, and while his .401 BABIP is certainly high, a ridiculous 24% line drive rate means it’s not as flukish as it may appear at first glance. And his last 10 games: he’s 23-of-39 with 3 HRs and 9 RBIs. Sweet Lord.
And Savery should definitely start next year in Reading. Actually, whoever mentioned the innings count was right on: after 119.2 IP last year, he needs to be shut down before 150 IP this year (he’s currently at 139 IP). One more start should do it.
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Yes, but according to Arbuckle, Taylor did in fact make 16 outs last week – that’s nine more than Geoff Jenkins, and that his average at Clearwater is 20 points lower than it was at Lakewood. We really need to temper out enthusiam about this guy. 8^)
– Jeff
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That’s not a fair comparison…Pudge’s career OBP is .340, nowhere near Marson’s .434.
But seriously folks, if it’s not too late to ask Jeff O, I’d like to hear how Harman looks at the plate and in the field.
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so let’s play devil’s advocate here and say that Taylor keeps up his performance early on next year in Reading. how long before he’s with the piggies??? a month, 2 ??
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PhuturePhillies –
Any chance Taylor moves up again before the end of the year? And will he play in a fall league or his season over after Clearwater?
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The jump from High A to AA is arguably the toughest jump in the minors. Its the reason you temper expectations a bit, but its also a reason to get excited when a player makes the jump and succeeds, ie Donald and Marson this year.
Taylor could start in AA next year. But if he does, they probably will keep him there unless he just puts up an absurd line. If he does, then move him up to AAA. But theres really no rush.
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Not sure if it is too early to post this, but I’m curious…who do we think gets called up to the big club on September 1? Of the guys not currently on the 40-man roster, I have to believe that Golson has the best chance. I think that leaves Marson and Donald out (with Mathieson and/or Zagurski getting transferred to the 60 day-DL to make room). Any thoughts? Feel free to delete if it’s too early or not the right place.
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I’d have to think Donald gets called up in Sept…he’s a better option than Bruntlett as a utitility guy and he isn’t getting any younger at 24.
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I haven’t read the entire thread (you know, work and all), but here’s my guess as to what happened. Gillick’s successors were permitted to set the course of this draft. I think it is they who insisted that the club spend what is needed and get good draft picks. And don’t think Gillick’s activities didn’t help the discussion. You don’t need a lot of Freddy Garcias and Adam Eatons to let you know that investing money in good draft picks is the most economical way to improve.
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there’s a SLEW of guys on the 40 man that IMO could be dropped. Rosario, Bisenus, Robles, some schmuck named Eaton.
ALso Jaramillo is already on there so if they did choose to bring kids up it wouldn’t risk anyone i wouldn’t think.
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***The 2008 draft. What can I say, really. I’ve been following the minors for probably 10 years, maybe even longer, and this is the best draft I can remember in my lifetime.***
I too have been following the draft for a number of years and when this one started with Hewitt #1, I thought that we were in for another “mess”. When they followed with a number of intriguing young arms, throughout the entire draft, the cynic in me said that it was for “show” and that they would sign very few of them …BUT… to my delight, they signed more than I could have hoped for!
My Top 30 prospects list has changed substantially with 9 players form this draft making the list and that does not include the pitchers: May, Pettibone, Worley & Cisco.
Obviously, I either place too much credence on “potential” & “the unknown” or the system was just infused with some excellent talent.
But don’t listen to me, I was livid in 2000 with the Phils’ #1 pick …. Chase Utley!
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On the topic of a Bulletin Board, WordPress has a good offering that integrates with the blog software. http://bbpress.org/
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“who do we think gets called up to the big club on September 1?”
Jaramillo should get the call which might mean Marson will have to wait until Spring. Can’t see them bringing up two catchers but stranger things have happened.
Donald, Watson, Tracy and Golson are candidates.
Oscar Robles has pro experience and doesn’t strike out much. He could help as a pinch hitter.
Cervenak and Swindle might be back as well.
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In response to the comment about Taylor making significantly more outs in the past week than Geoff Jenkins…in Phillies last 7 games, GJ has started 3, and pinch hit in a couple others. Doesn’t seem like a fair comparison when Taylor is either starting in the outfield or DHing nearly every game.
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Mike,
I think there was a little sarcasm in Jeff O’s post.
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Indeed. Hence the smiley face at the end.
– Jeff
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On the September call-ups, I was thinking more guys not already on the 40-man. I think that JJ is a lock, as well as all the pitchers except maybe Bisenius and Castro, and maybe even Cervenak and Robles. I don’t know why they wouldn’t call up all of those guys, even if they just ride the pine during the stretch run. The more bodies to pinch run for Burrell in the 6th inning, the better.
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I don’t know if my previous post made sense…I’m not good at posting while at work with no sleep. Anyway…my original post was asking for what guys not on the 40-man may get called (and what happens to get them on the 40-man), and my second post is the guys already on the 40-man to get called.
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I don’t mean to advertise, but over at philaphans.com, there’s both a major league board and a totally separate minor league board. The minors board isn’t too active, but every day the games, times, and assumed starter is posted, and after each game is completed, the box score is linked as well as a summary of the top performers and prospects. It’s something until another solution is figured out.
Oh, and I was really high on Taylor coming out of the draft. I still am. If he had enough ABs to qualify at either level, he’d be leading both the SAL and the FSL in average.
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pp – i am a little confused. it seems like the above comments were aimed at me since i unintentionally started the “storm”, however, that doesn’t make sense since i always back up my statements with logic and data. always. now you might disagree with my data or logic, but that is what makes a debate interesting.
if you weren’t speaking about me, then ignore this post. if you were, please clarify your issues so i can correct going forward.
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I wasn’t singling you out. It was a general reminder.
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Phuturephillies. This is my first draft on this blog or any blog.So if you can. Tell me if you remember any other prospect striking out as much as hewitt. its alarming to me. I Knew he was raw but this is crazy to me.
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Not as much striking out from these guys but similar in that they have been horrible overall and striking out a lot.
Casey Kelly – 86 AB’s – 32 K’s – .472 OPS
Kyle Skipworth – 139 AB’s – 41 K’s – .563 OPS
It shouldn’t really shock anyone that Hewitt is struggling, he’s gone from playing baseball in the NE to the GCL. Like all draft picks you have to take what they do this year with a grain of salt. Next year and the following year is when you start questioning it if he’s still struggling along.
Also those that followed the system remember Myers/Dom Brown in the GCL. Myers looked like an all world player, and Dom Brown struggled along. Now look at what they are doing.
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Thanks B
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My worry with Hewitt RIGHT NOW, not in regards to his future development and those risks, is that he had a VERY PROMISING July (.750 OPS). He was killing the ball and adjusting unbelievably well.
But now he’s in a horrible slump. 25K or something in 50AB and a .450 OPS. Quite a drop-off.
It makes me worry that his July was mosly “luck” based on his BABIP.
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ya now that he has piled up some at bats, pitchers probably have a pretty good idea of how to pitch to him, and he hasnt gotten a hit in his last 25 ab’s or so, he definately needs to put some work in this offseason after getting a taste of the GCL
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Caught the ‘Pigs on the road Friday and at home Sunday.
I’m still not that impressed with Benson, he is making strides but still not there yet. Bohn had three assists in one game, at least his defense is OK. I have seen improvement in Jaramillo since the start of the year. He’s still not throwing out baserunners as much as I’d like, but I think his playcalling and defense have improved a bunch. So has his hitting. The Phillies will have a tough decision, because how do you choose between Marson, Jaramillo, and Ruiz next year? Tough one.
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