Busy day today; Travis D’Arnaud and Michael Taylor show up in Kevin Goldstein’s latest Monday Morning Ten Pack at Baseball Prospectus.
Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A Lakewood (Phillies)
During the first half of the season, I felt a little foolish for ranking D’Arnaud ahead of Lou Marson going into the season. While Marson has had a breakout year and is now catching for the Olympic squad, D’Arnaud has certainly kept up his end of the bargain. After batting .309/.371/.463 in the New York-Penn League, the 19-year-old spent his first weekend of full-season baseball over the last three days by going 6-for-13 with a pair of doubles. Athletic and projectable, D’Arnaud has plus defensive tools and above-average power potential. While plenty of teams don’t have a single decent catching prospect, the Phillies have two very good ones.
Michael Taylor, OF, High-A Clearwater (Phillies)
Taylor began the year with a .361/.441/.554 line at Low-A Lakewood which created a mixed reaction. At six-foot-six and 250 pounds, Taylor looks like a potential monster, but at the same time he’s 22 years old and coming of of a highly disappointing three-year career at Stanford that left scouts scratching their heads. Moved up to the Florida State League in mid-June, Taylor continues to bump up his stock by mashing in a much tougher offensive environment, most recently by delivering multi-hit games on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to raise his batting line for the Threshers to .342/.392/.546 in 53 contests. There are still questions about what it all means, since both his age and the three-year hole he dug himself in Palo Alto are a lot to make up for in some people’s minds, but the further this goes, the more his doubters fall by the wayside.
Phuture Phillies 
Wondering why it still matters what he did in college 2 years ago. He’s been a pro for more than a year now (i think), and he’s killed the ball at every level. He’s got great size and i don’t see why he should be hurt his past in college. I guess baseball people are just slow to move on a prospect?
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So I’m gonna take a shot in the dark that we won’t be ranked in the bottom 3rd when it comes to prospects next year…considering how well several of our young guys have done.
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Well, 3 years worth of college AB’s will outweigh 1 year of pro AB’s for some scouts. And in general, performance from college guys in the low minors needs to be weighed to a degree, considering age and level of competition. But all you can do is ask the guy to perform at the level he is at, challenge him, and evaluate his performances as he climbs. Taylor has far exceeded expectations this year. If he truly was a product of “The Stanford Swing” and hes unlearned those bad habits, then the Phillies got a draft day steal.
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Do you know of any other major leaguers that have “overcome” the Stanford Swing?
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Carlos Quentin comes to mind.
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oh and dont’ forget one Eric Bruntlett. oh wait, bad example.
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And Taylor did have a mediocre pro debut last year at Williamsport. He put up a .665 OPS (.227 Avg) in a healthy sample of 233 at bats. I am much more impressed by the Clearwater performance of late than the Lakewood. This is really the first time in 4 years where he has performed well in an age appropriate league. His BB rate is also a yellow warning sign at Clearwater.
That being said, Taylor has definitely moved up on the prospect lists. I would say he is fringe top 10 these days. I still need to see more to put him firmly in the top 10.
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With Valle I’d say the Phils have three very good catching prospects, but I guess the jury is still out on Valle in determining how much of a ‘prospect’ he really is.
I believe our gracious host noted it somewhere else on Taylor, but I agree and the sentiment bears repeating – I’m excited about Taylor but I’ll get VERY excited about him if he mashes at AA next year.
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“Do you know of any other major leaguers that have ‘overcome’ the Stanford Swing?”
After a quick search, the only notable current hitters I can find are Carlos Quentin, Ryan Garko, Jody Gerut, Jed Lowrie, and I guess Bruntlett (if you count him as notable)
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“While plenty of teams don’t have a single decent catching prospect, the Phillies have two very good ones.”
Three if you count Valle.
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When reading about Michael Taylor, is anyone else here reminded of Dave Winfield? Wouldn’t it be sweet to have one of those playing for us?
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mr d’arnaud had his first home run for Lakewood tonight. congrats to him. he’s now batting a cool .500 albeit in a small sample size.
and michael cisco is continuing to pitch very well. You should be seeing him in Clearwater next year.
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Fridge top ten. I can see Donald,Carrasso,Marson. Happ then Taylor
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Michael Taylor has elevated himself into the Phillies’ Top-10. No doubt about it. And at this rate, he will be FIRMLY located potentially in the Top-5.
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In regards to the ‘Stanford swing’, Carlos Quentin might be a good example. GM Byrnes from the Diamondbacks gave up on him way too early. Jed Lowrie won the PAC-10 triple crown in 2004 as a sophomre, so he must not have used it. Here’s a crazy thought: what if Michael Taylor jumps right to the majors next spring, ala Albert Pujols? Left field might be vacant this winter.
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D’Arnaud 1-4, HR, BB, 2 Runs tonight. Man this kid is looking like a great prospect.
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Dominic Brown hurt his shoulder tonight.
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If Taylor jumps to the big club next year I’ll eat my hat.
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Does Taylor get an invite to major league ST next year, regardless of the plans for him for regular season?
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He could get an invite, depending on how he does in the AFL, which I believe he’ll be invited to, but it would just be an experience for him.
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If he is sent to the AFL I suspect he would then get a couple of weeks in the ML camp next season just as a little perk before being sent to the minor league camp.
If it does happen, would be a pretty good indicator that he is targeted for AA to start the year..
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As a companion to today’s question on top 10 pitchers, I’ll ask about your top 10 position players. I’ll list mine as:
Marson
Donald
Brown
Taylor
D’Arnauld
Collier
Golson
Valle
Galvis
Mattair
Honorable Mention
Berry
Susdorf
Kennelly
Overbeck
Slayden
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With regards to the position players, there’s a pretty sizable leap between the top 5 and everyone else, right? Marson and Donald have pretty much proven this year that they could at least contribute at the ML level, with the potential for Marson to be an all-star. Brown, Taylor, and D’Arnaud have all shown big upsides this year. After that, there’s a mix of “big upside+little/poor performance” and “ok performance+little upside”. As always, Golson remains the wild card as he still could someday put it all together and become an everyday major leaguer (note he’s only 9 months older than Marson). I would probably have Golson ahead of Collier, but otherwise wouldn’t quibble with this list.
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My top 10 position guys:
Marson
Donald
D’Arnaud
Taylor
Brown
Golson
Collier
Mattair
Galvis
Berry
I agree there’s a big gap between the top half of that list, filled with guys who have shown ability in their brief pro careers, and the bottom which is either projection players (e.g. Mattair) or low-ceiling useful types (Berry). Golson is a little of both.
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Hey guys, this is my first post here, I mostly lurk on this site because I have a few Phillies guys (Taylor, d’Arnaud, Bastardo, Mattair) in a keeper fantasy league, but I needed to weigh in on the Stanford swing, which as a long time follower of the program I know pretty well. Mark Marquess has been the manager at Stanford for like 32 years now, so the thing has been around for awhile, a couple of names that could be included on the list of guys who have “overcome it” include Jeffrey Hammonds, David McCarty, Brian Johnson, Steve Beuchele and Ed Sprague (and guys who were top picks who couldn’t seem to include Joe Borchard, AJ Hinch, Sam Fuld and John Gall). Basically the Stanford swing is a product of old school one size fits all coaching, and it happens to be terrific for making contact with an aluminum bat (though it isn’t much of a power swing). Bigger guys like Michael Taylor and John Mayberry before him were obviously not well suited to it at the school, when I saw Taylor play he looked obviously uncomfortable with it. I’m not surprised he’s bounced back this year now that he’s hitting with a swing more suited to his style of play. The Stanford Swing isn’t bad, in fact it’s very good for what it does, which is win college baseball games, it just isn’t very good for professional hitting development.
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seven doubles in three game TAYLOR NEEDS TO GO TO READING and the fall league then eyes may open(or shut)
I believe in pushing older players.
dont forget TAYLOR batted .157 his first month in CLEARWATER
and hit .610 during his hit streak. I leave management with
a guote “WE HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF”
NO WINTER MEETING WRITTEN IN STONE THIS YEAR PLEASE
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Oooh, top 10 position players is kind of fun. Off topic a bit, sure, but I can’t resist…
Marson
Donald
d’Arnaud
Brown
Taylor
Golson
Collier
Galvis
Valle
Berry
Hmmm, not nearly as exciting a list as the pitchers. I guess you could say Jaramillo, Mattair, Slayden, Hewitt are “waiting in the wings,” but overall, this isn’t as strong a crop as the pitchers.
Oh, and PhilsProspectFollower: thanks for chiming in on that. We certainly hope Taylor’s abandoning of the Stanford swing was the catalyst for his success this year, and that we can expect continued success next year and beyond. He should be an exciting player if he keeps it up.
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I had to chime in on the Stanford swing because hitting is my thing. We teach the concept of the Stanford swing in our American Legion Program beginning with 13 year olds. In short the Stanford swing is just being short to the ball with your hands Chase Utley is a very succesfull example of that. Not with standing certain body types really struggle with the mechanics of staying short to the ball and keeping the hands inside of it. The mechanics of that swing are not conducive to big body types, long arm types etc…
Soriano/Sheffield are extreme examples of guys who use the antithesis of the Stanford swing to their advantage. I have not seen Taylor hit yet but pictures I have seen of him tell me he will require a longer swing to generate power and be succesfull.
Philsprospect follower: I like what you said about a 1 size fits all approach. Our program director and I argue about this all the time. He is to rigid and feels all of the kids must adopt this swing. I however feel there is a time for certain kids where it must be abandoned. The only thing I do not agree with you on is that it’s only good for college baseball.
I like the swing as a foundation for hitting and for the rare few that posess extremly quick hands it is a swing that can serve them well in a big league career.
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Just to clarify, I meant that the Stanford swing is more conducive to hitting with an aluminum bat, and that Mark Marquess perhaps more than any top college manager prioritizes winning games over developing major leaguers.
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Not sure where to put this but Drabek was moved up to Williamsport.
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Catcher: Just remember Jaramillo is hitting .270 with 400+ ABs in AAA.. Not bad for a former prospect that has be solid since starting pro ball. He’s playing everyday and is as durable as they come. Catcher for catcher — Jaramillo is much more natural then Marson. Jaramillo is just as smooth as quiet behind the plate as any other. He’s doing very well for being on a bad team. Let’s not get carried away from all the facts. That’s why the Phillies brass selected him in the 2nd round and not the 6th. Put all the prospects side-by-side and I give the edge to Jaramillo and D’Arnaud.
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Jaramillo is going to be 26 and is 6’0 200. This is his 2nd year at Triple AAA. But here’s his AA line just for fun.
REA EAS AA PHI 93 322 35 80 25 1 6 39 32 55
AVG OBP SLG OPS
.248 .320 .388 .708
Lou Marson just turned 22 and is 6’1 195 pounds. He just caught for the Olympic team. Here is his AA line.
REA EAS AA PHI 92 317 55 101 18 0 5 46 65 69
AVG OBP SLG OPS
.319 .434 .423 .857
I’m a big D’Arnaud fan but it’s too early to tell with him. C’mon though man, Jaramillo over Lou?? As Ari Gold would say REALLLLLLLy REALLLLLLLY????
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Oh and the bad team thing doesn’t fly either. Reading stinks.
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