Signing deadline today; the crow flies at midnight

2008 Draft

If you find any articles talking about unsigned Phillies picks coming to terms, please post them here. I’ll do my best to check regularly and update this post as things develop, if anything develops. The Phillies drafted tons of high ceiling high school kids and have signed a few of them already, while also adding hard throwing college pitchers as well. I’ll have more thoughts on the draft after the deadline has passed. For now, just post here if you find anything and I’ll update as needed.

Unsigned picks

226. Johnny Coy, 3B (Benson HS, MO)
376. Ryan (James) Weber, RHP (Central Clearwater Catholic HS, FL)
766. Daniel Edwards, RHP (Kansas State)
886. Keon Broxton, 3B (Lakeland High School, FL) [Likely to sign?]
916. DJ Henderson, SS (Southeastern HS, MI)
1006. James Simpson, 1B (Dowagiac Union HS, MI)
1036. Blaine O’Brien, RHP (Scituate HS, MA)
1126. Matthew Johnson, OF (John W North HS, CA)
1156. Jarred Cosart, RHP (Clear Creek HS, TX)
1186. Joseph Pond, RHP (Judge Memorial Catholic HS, UT)
1216. Daniel Marrs, RHP (James River HS, VA)
1246. Michael Petello, OF (Scottsdale CC, AZ)
1335. Charles Law, RHP (Mainland Regional HS, NJ)
1363. Justin Zumwalde, 1B (Sabino HS, AZ)
1390. Giovany Soto, LHP (Advanced Central College HS)
1444. Mark Ginther, SS (Jenks HS, OK)
1471. Michael Russo, RHP (Hun School, NJ)
1498. Josh Hake, RHP (Park University, AZ)

119 thoughts on “Signing deadline today; the crow flies at midnight”

  2. my apologies if this was mentioned before but it appears to me that the phillies have until next year’s draft to sign daniel edwards (college senior) per this jonathon mayo article from last year. it is still a mystery why it is taking this long. the relevant paragraph is as follows:

    Nothing has changed regarding college seniors. They still have until just before next year’s Draft to sign or they re-enter the Draft.

    Link

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  4. Is anyone out there following the other teams in the division and their luck at signing any of the late-rounder HS talent? I know it’s a bit off topic, but I’m trying to get a sense of how unusual it is to sign someone like a Marrs or a Cosart. Has any NL team busted slot for a really high profile, late round pick yet? Feel free to disregard the query if PP deems this not sufficiently Phillies related.

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  5. If Weber and Broxton signed I’d be ecstatic, but so far it was a good draft, early returns aside.

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  6. 1. Mets have signed only 4 HS players and only one after the first 10 rounds.

    2. Braves have signed only 4 HS players only one after the first 10 rounds.

    3. Marlins have signd 9 HS players including 3 after the 10th round

    4. Nationals have signed 5 HS players including 2 after the 10th round

    5. Phillies have signed 10 HS players including 2 after the 10th round.

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  8. Link

    Signee Keon Broxton, a wide receiver out of Lakeland, is not expected to enroll at FAU in order to sign a professional baseball contract. Broxton was drafted in the 29th round by the Phillies.

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  10. Correct me if i’m wrong, by Cosart, Law, and Marrs seem like the biggest potential gains and also the biggest reaches with the least chances of signing.

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  11. Marrs I am pretty sure is a top prospect. All scouting reports,that I saw say he has great up side. Law will be at citizen bank park according to reports today and the phillies will work him out.And offer him a contract .That doesn’t mean he will sign. Cosart I am pretty sure is going to college I read his committment is strong. If broxton signs. Can someone get a scouting report on him I haven’t been able to read anything on his tools,

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  12. Phuturephillies ,Do think the phillies used more money in the draft this year.Because they liked the talent better than the international market.I am trying to give them the benefit of doubt because they didn’t go after top international talent. Maybe they saw this high school talent as having more potential.What do you think?

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  14. Ill add up the money spent when all is said and done. But I’m fairly sure they’ve already blown past what was spent last year. Broxton is really raw, and was highly recruited as a football player. He’s already 6’4 and 180 or so, so the Phillies are drafting and banking on him learning the game. He was a 2nd team Aflac All American (as was Jason Knapp), but he’s raw. Kind of sounds like Johnny Coy, from the articles I’ve read.

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  16. i am all for signing players, but i don’t fully understand the emphasis on these guys. some people on this blog have noted that one or two players on this list would change the draft a whole letter grade. that seems a bit silly to me. i mean we have signed 13 of our top 14 picks. in theory, the better players should be picked higher. i don’t see how picking a raw 3b that was a 29th round pick will really impact the draft grade that much.

    i know there are examples of the ones that got away. but those are like 1 in 10,000. very, very, very few picks this late in the draft ever make an mlb all star team.

    in my opinion, the draft grade is what it is based on the top 10 picks. the other picks are like getting a few extra lottery tickets, because hey, you never know.

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  17. PP i always thought the hard to sign high school kids were the late picks.They have talent but are committed to college.If you can talk them out of that committment then you could have something. I believe if Marrs or Russo were not so committed to college they would have been top ten draft choices. If you can sign them you have really upgraded your system.Maybe I am wrong,Phuturephillies and You know more about this then me but I Think there is value in these late hard to sign picks.

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  18. PP Fan,

    I agree with the over-grading of the draft based on the signing of some low-round prospect.

    The only point I’ll make is that some of the players picked lower in the draft didn’t drop that low because they don’t have sufficient talent but is rather was an indication of what teams though the possibility was that they would be willing to sign.

    Guys who have multi-sport abilities and have scholorship offers are risky and as a result, will drop down in the draft below where their talent would dictate. The bigger the risk, the farther the drop.

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  19. rocky is correct. On merit, Weber was probably a 3rd or 4th round pick. He slipped because of a college commitment and perceived signability. It happens every year. And you take these guys after the first 10 rounds, because you want guys taken in a spot where you think you can sign them for reasonable amounts of money. If they didn’t have the college option, lots of guys would get taken much higher. Alex Meyer was a consensus first round pick but plummeted into the middle rounds of the draft because it was thought there was no way to sign him to a reasonable deal. Boston took him anyway, and the rumor is they are prepared to offer around $2M to keep him from college.

    Signing Broxton is like signing an extra 5th rounder on talent, with even more upside. Signing Weber is like signing an extra 3rd or 4th round talent, with some upside. But you took those guys 10-15 rounds later. Thats why these are guys to get excited about. They have legit tools, and in the case of Broxton, massive projection.

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  20. Why even evaluate the draft then? Why even discuss the season as it unfolds?

    I’ve been doing a lot of reading of the comments over the last 3 months, and I’m starting to come to the conclusion that I need to change the format of this site.

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  21. PP Fan:

    Not to mention we are talking about arms here not bats.
    I mean just look at previous drafts where that 1 arm not taken late in drafts turns around in 2-3 yrs and becomes a 1st, 2nd, 3rd rounder. Law, Russo, and Weber give us more projectable arms and just having arms in the system below the age of 25 is a good thing, and below the age of 19 is even better!

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  22. I love the format, but would be interested to know what you mean. If people don’t want to consider the draft strongly or discuss players during the year they shouldn’t be here. It’s like trying to sell a cat to a dog lover.

    Mainland HS, where Law attends, is real close to the stadium so it can’t hurt to have him in and try to impress him. I don’t know much about him so I don’t know if it’s worth busting slot for him. It’s possible he’s a Phillies fan given proximity to the city, so that might be in their favor.

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  23. Just to back up pp on this one, we hear a lot this year up in Boston about Alex Meyer – he’s a 6’7″ RHP that throws in the mid-90s. Everyone says he would have gone in the first round if it weren’t for his strong commitment to Kentucky. The Sox took him in the 20th round and have reportedly offered him $2mm, but it seems like at this point he won’t sign. That’s a chance you can take with a 20th round pick, but not one you want to take with a pick in the first couple of rounds.

    Regarding Broxton, if he has 5th-round type talent, signing him plus signing 13 of your top 14 picks is like having an extra pick in the top ten rounds. Hence, signing him can increase the quality of a team’s draft and would definitely increase the draft’s grade in my mind.

    I for one am pretty psyched that the Phils are really executing on getting a lot of higher-end talent into the system out of this draft.

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  24. How about a recent thirty six round pick from 2002 draft.Gibson all indication are he right now could go in top three picks of 2009 draft.So I am very excited if we land some of these kids who were lower because of signability issues.

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  26. you are over reacting to my comments. i don’t understand how you jump from my comment about over emphasizing the impact of a few late round picks to overhauling the website or questioning why even discuss the season as it unfolds. all i am saying is to put these things into perspective. the classic mistake any scout makes is that they fall in love with a prospect and lose perspective. statistics for late round picks (all things considered) are very conclusive. it is really rare for them to make a significant impact at the mlb level. that is not debatable. look at mlb all star teams as far back as you want and it is consistent.

    now, it is not my money, so i hope they sign all of the picks. i love buying lottery tickets with other people’s money if i get the upside if it hits. i am just saying, keep perspective.

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  27. the reason you now worry about Weber is that as he enrolled in CC he thinks he can have a great year (after his solid performance this year and in the U18 USA tournament) and maybe move up to the 2-4th rounds and earn much more than the phils are offering. These last 12 hours can be excruciating. At this point I’ll be stunned if we get him. I’d like to hear that we’re bringing him in today or at least going to see him.

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  28. I’ll try and save the majority of my rant for the post I plan on writing later after the signing deadline. But the draft is essentially about odds. The odds of any player making it to the big leagues are small. Not only do you need talent, you need to have the ability to make adjustments, you need to then have a spot for you on a roster, and maybe most importantly, you have to avoid injury. Every year’s draft should be about maximizing your assets, and in the case of the draft, each draftee is an asset. I’ll have more on this later.

    And its not just you PP Fan.

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  29. rocky – that is a very rare example. that’s my point. not that they don’t ever hit. some times they do. but very rarely. probability weighted, i just don’t see how signing a 36th round pick changes a draft grade.

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  30. PP Fan…I think the point that is trying to be made is that a lot of the late round picks are very talented kids that are unlikely to sign and will probably attend college (and become high picks in 3-4 years). The ones that DO sign are usually 4-year college players that the scouts aren’t too kean on but can fill out your minor league rosters (Susdorf). Those guys, in most cases, won’t make an impact on a major league team (although I’d love to be wrong on Susdorf) but will sign because they have no other option.

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  31. What if Cole Hamels had been a 37th round pick because of signablility, the Phillies signed him, and he turned into what he did? Is that a draft grade changer?

    What I find funny is that people will grade a draft a certain way because of the performance of a guy like Stutes or Susdorf.

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  32. Phuturephillies. I thought that someone said that law would be in citizens bank for a workout today. And the phillies would make a decision on him on the last day. Do you think if weber doesn’t sign then its law as a second choice or do you think its possible that both could sign.

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  33. I don’t really know, to be honest. I think they’d like to sign both. I think they probably have about $500K to spend on both guys. My guess is that they’d offer Weber the same they offered Sampson last year ($390K) and if he takes it, they won’t offer Law more than 100K, max, in which case he’d probably go to school.

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  34. PP Fan, the reason the statistics are so low for late round players is because the vast majority of late round picks which sign are four-year college seniors, who are essentialy drafted to be organizational filler. Meanwhile, there are hundreds of terrific prospects every year which get drafted in the later rounds due to commitments and signability. These prospects rarely sign, which combines with the hundreds of easy college senior signings to greatly skew the statistic. You should alter the parameters on your statistics. How about finding the percentage of draftees taken after round 20 and who sign for greater than 250K that make it to the big leagues. That would be a much more telling statistic than what you keep on repeating.

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  35. I know we’re all a bit nervous today as we keep our fingers crossed for Weber, Broxton, and others, but let’s take a step back and be thankful we’re only fretting over some late-round guys. Imagine being the Nationals, whose game of chicken with No. 9 overall pick Aaron Crow is reaching the bewitching hour.

    Looks like Broxton’s probably in, then — I can’t see FAU leaving him off the website roster if they had much of a hope of retaining him. The Weber/Law scenario you’ve described makes a lot of sense, and I’m hopeful based on Wolever’s quotes from the other day that something can be worked out with Weber.

    Oh, and for what it’s worth, I’ve heard rumors that the Phils didn’t really make a serious offer to Blaine O’Brien (the number I heard was $25,000 or so). Given how raw he supposedly is, and how they’ve zeroed in on some other guys, that doesn’t surprise me.

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  36. The reality is, a lot of kids taken after the 30th round are taken for 2 big reasons;

    a.) Leverage against first rounders
    b.) To grease the wheels for a future drafting

    You take a first round talent in the 25th round and prepare to offer him the same money you’re offering your first round pick in case he comes in with ridiculous demands. It doesn’t always work (see the Padres this year with the whole Dykstra/Mooneyham saga), but sometimes it does, and the deterrence probably gets a lot of guys to sign at the last minute. Also, in the case of the Phillies and Vance Worley, you get a bit of familiarity and it helps in future negotiations. You also never know. A guy might lose his college scholarship for whatever reason, and then that strong college commitment becomes a weak commitment, and instead of thinking you need to spend $500k to sign him, it only takes $100k and promise of college money.

    The draft is complex. The decision to go pro or go to college is arguably the biggest decision a lot of these kids will ever make. I know for a fact that one of the guys the Phillies drafted wasn’t even contacted by the team after the middle of June. Sometimes there isn’t a reason for why things transpire the way they do, sometimes there is.

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  37. Talk of complex. Explain to me how the mets sixth round choice.Josh Satin get twenty five thousand and the rays seventh choice gets thirty thousand.I can’t understand how they sign so cheap compared to what others got in the round.

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  38. A blast from the past from Keith Law’s top 20 from the Cape League: “10. Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas. Workman runs his sinker up to 93 with an inconsistent, but often plus, curveball, racking up both ground balls and strikeouts. It’s an un-pretty delivery, with a harsh arm action that looks like it’s going to relegate him to the bullpen or to a surgeon’s table. Workman has already grown an inch since he was drafted in the third round by the Phillies in 2007, and misses being eligible for the 2009 draft by about three weeks. “

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  39. wow…who said anything about changing a draft’s grade based on the first few months of stutes or susdorff’s production? do you say this just to prove a point? because it is not based on anything that i said. that being said, i don’t see how you can think that it is reasonable to get excited about the early performance of guys like stutes or susdorf.

    and i don’t know why you are being so defensive on this. if no one challenges assumptions, then what is the fun? challenging opinions stir debate and interest and will get you your next 1 million pageviews.

    p.s. please stick with debating the data, not my personal excitement about a prospect. it comes accross as very personal and defensive.

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  40. Neduol Caz – if that was the truth then the market would adapt and allocate budgets entirely to 250k late round signings and not sign any college seniors. the statistics don’t bear that out.

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  41. also, the cole hamels analogy doesn’t hold. he wasn’t a late round pick beause people wanted to invest heavily in him. that’s kind of my point. top talent, people will pay the millions for. you do make a good point about alex meyer. so let’s see how that one plays out. but broxton ain’t no alex meyer. so that is also kind off off point.

    and if there were other great examples of that analogy, then it would bear itself in the results. the stats are overwhelmingly consistent on this. very, very few late round picks make an mlb all star game. every now and then there is a mike piazza. who becomes a late round star. but it just doesn’t happen.

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  42. You don’t know what you’re talking about on this. I’ll leave it at that. There is close to zero relation between a prospect like Keon Broxton, taken in the 25th round, and Jordan Ellis, a college senior, taken in the 24th round. Kids are not drafted in order based on pure talent. This is a very simple, non-debateable fact.

    Maybe I’m “too defensive”, but this is my site, and it pains me to see the direction the discussion has gone over the last few months. I guess I should be thrilled that the site has gotten over 400,000 hits in the last 2.5 months, but in a way, I’m not. Thats not an indictment of any one person, its a general statement. It takes a lot of restraint for me to play the moderator role and not speak my mind. I’ve done really well in that respect. But if it gets to the point where I can no longer draw the line, I’ll just treat this much more like a newsletter and less like a blog/website.

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  43. PP Fan, the market cannot adapt, because it takes two too tango. Every team would love to draft and sign guys for 250k with signability factors, after all, that is why they fell to the later rounds. It would be a great steal. However, they have signability issues for a reason. It is very rare for these players to fall that far and then sign with the MLB team, although, it does happen on occasion. This is my point in regards to your earlier statement that signing players in later rounds has no bearing on the quality of a draft, because later round picks hardly ever make it to the bigs anyway (I am summarizing your argument). I am saying that you are correct in the fact that later round picks don’t usually make it, but that is because the vast majority of later round picks are drafted to be organizational filler. The majority of this board is talking about signing very talented players who were drafted in the later rounds because of signability issues. These players, when drafted and signed, would have a much higher success rate than the generic late round pick (I do not have any actual data on this point). In theory, they have the same talent as a player drafted in the first 5 rounds, thus significantly altering an entire drafts “grade”. It is like adding extra picks in the top 5 rounds. I feel that you are foolish to diminish the importance of the draft after round 10, as top talents can be signed in any round for varying reasons.
    Also, it is a neccesary evil to sign college seniors as orginazational filler, that is just how the system works. Finally, I believe you do not have any meaningful statistics, seeing how you only sight the “statistics” in all of your arguments, without actually providing any.

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  44. Smoltz, Puljos, Sandberg, Oswalt, Lowell, Piazza, McLouth, Bay, Uggla.

    And that’s just off the top of my head! So there are a descent amount of gems in the later rounds because none of those guys were a top 10 round pick I believe.

    Are we saying that it’s a sure thing that a Law, Broxton, or Russo become a Nolan Ryan, no not at all.

    I think after the draft, for the most part people should not look at a players drafted spot/round after round 10 let’s say. But look at his projection and history. I mean many of the top HS picks who aren’t signed will become top College picks in 2-3 yrs from now anyways.

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  46. maybe i don’t know anything about the mlb draft. but i do know statistics.

    looking at the 2007 all star game: 32% were first round picks; the next highest percentage were international players signed at 16 or younger (10.6%); then 2nd rounders at 9%. so more than half of the 2007 mlb all stars were either first or 2nd round picks or young international players. over 80% of the team was a top 10 pick or international signee. the rest were made up of such a random draw that it is statistically insignificant.

    of the top 30 prospects in baseball entering this season, 70% are first round picks. the next highest are 16 year international signees, 13%. not one was selected after the 7th round.

    that’s the data. sorry if it is painful or if i am painful to you for pointing it out.

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  47. From Section 113 – i am not saying it doen’t happen. it does. just saying, statistically, it is very, very rare. you pointed out a few players and had to go back to ryan sandberg.

    PP – you say “Exactly. Kyle Gibson”

    think of all of the players taken after the 10th round in all of those drafts. the percentage of those guys who make it are so slim. which brings me back to my first point, which is still dead on. that taking into account probability, to change a draft’s grade because we sign one or two very low probability players doesn’t make sense to me.

    but enough already.

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  48. PP Fan,
    I think most of the people here care less about when the people in the all star game were drafted, and more about signing players out of high school that have high potential despite being drafted later for issues irrelevant to their play.

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  49. Thought I’d just chime in to note that PP Fan’s latest post was arguably the most condescending thing I’ve ever read by someone so obviously misinformed and stubborn by anyone posting on a phillies-related minor league blog in at least a week, maybe two.

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  50. After looking at the list of unsigned 1st rounders I’m glad Hewitt is already signed. No matter anyone’s personal feelings on him I don’t think anyone would want to be here today wondering if that deal was going to get done. This was a good draft and anything from here on out is gravy.

    Regardless of my position on this I think too many people are using observations to back up their arguements. I’m sure it would be possible to determine how many late round, high school picks make significant contributions at the ML level but I don’t have the time and I don’t think I could find the data. You would need to go back and find every draft pick after say, round 5, that was a HS who signed for, say, double slot and then test that as your population to determine what the ‘hit percentage’ is and that would need to be compared to some overall ‘hit percentage’ of players taken in the first five rounds who are HS’ers to determine what you really had.

    That being said, good players fall for many reasons, I don’t see how anyone can debate that. Sometimes you can blow them away and get it done and sometimes you can’t but it’s worth a shot once you get into the later rounds. We aren’t sitting here pining over every guy on that list just the few that have some potential and might be signed.

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  51. that’s the data. sorry if it is painful or if i am painful to you for pointing it out

    Its painful that you don’t understand how the system works. Teams do not arbitrarily pay $700k for 20th round picks. The Red Sox gave Lars Anderson $825k in 2006. He’s now one of the 20 or so best prospects in baseball. He was an 18th round pick. Not all 18th round picks are as good as Lars Anderson. Very few of them are. He ended up in the 18th round because he shot up draft boards the spring before the draft, and he wanted supplemental round money to sign. Teams passed on him. Once he got past the supplemental round, teams felt they wouldn’t be able to offer what he wanted. Boston waited until they’d taken a number of players they felt were cost effective signings, then they started taking guys who dropped because of signability.

    Lars Anderson isn’t an 18th round talent. Had Anderson gone to college, he’d be entering this spring as a consensus Top 5 overall pick. Not Top 5 rounds, Top 5 picks. So if Boston re-drafted him, he’d be a 1st rounder. And then he’d fit comfortably into those statistics you presented.

    Keon Broxton isn’t Lars Anderson. He’s also not a 25th round talent. The system does not work the way you think it works. The bottom line is very simple. The odds against any pick are high. The odds against a college senior with marginal talent being a star are extremely long. The odds against a high school senior with a ton of projection are long too, but you can dream on the upside. There’s no right or wrong answer regarding how to allocate your draft budget and who to target. But if you don’t draft impact talent, then you really have little chance of developing impact prospects.

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  52. I don’t mean to drag this out any further, but I’ll try to straddle the middle ground quickly.

    PP Fan: your original point — that some people are making their overall 2008 Draft grade too volatile, moving it from a B to an A+ or whatever, based on the signing of one or two late round picks — is a valid one. Broxton and Weber are great additions to the draft class, but the draft has been a solid one already, and despite their talent, these two shouldn’t be the “make or break” in grading this draft.

    That being said, as the argument has moved on, I think you’ve oversimplified a little. I don’t think anyone here is capable of doing the type of analysis RodeoJones has suggested, but it would certainly be worthwhile. Here’s an excellent example: Jake Peavy was a 15th round pick out of high school, but the Padres bought him out of a scholarship to Auburn. I wasn’t following this stuff that closely back then, but I think it was probably pretty clear that Peavy wasn’t a 15th round talent.

    So to sum up: no, Broxton and Weber shouldn’t make or break the grade on the Phillies 2008 Draft — bump them from a B+ to an A-, sure, but not anything drastic. But they’re important (potential) signings nonetheless, and I think you’re just devaluing them a bit because you’re not separating organizational filler and guys that dropped for signability reasons. Is that a fair assessment?

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  53. ok. you’re right and i am wrong. statistics showing the correlations between draft position and who actually make an all star team is not only irrelevant (liquidanthropoid) it is also condescending (Bullsh!t Spotter) and clearly has no impact on how the system works.

    you win. i lose. game over.

    let’s move on

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  55. how bout we say we re-grade the draft in 5 years and if Hewitt, Collier, Worley, Stutes, Pettibone, Weber are all in the ML Club we’d give it an A, okay?

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  56. Thats fine.

    And here’s the thing. On June 20th, I said this

    Hewitt + Shreve + May = 8/10 for me
    Hewitt + Shreve + May + Coy = 9/10 for me
    Hewitt + Shreve + May + Coy + Pettibone or Weber = 10/10
    Hewitt + Shreve + May + Coy + Pettitbone + Weber = I’ll weep tears of joy

    on July 8th, I said this

    Shreve is a must. If they sign him and no one else, I’ll be happy with the draft. Add in Weber and I’ll be delighted. I’ll take Pettibone, but to be honest, I never understood that pick anyway.

    On July 23rd, I said this

    If they sign Pettibone, this draft was a B+ for me. If they sign Pettibone and either Weber or one of the 4 above, I’d give this draft an A-. If they sign no one else, its a solid B for me.

    People ask me for my opinion of a draft, they ask me to grade it before signings are even completed, so I give an off the cuff grade, and then people jump on it. I said if they signed Pettibone it was a B+, if not a B. I think its fair to jump the grade of the draft 1/3 of a letter grade based on signing or not signing a 3rd round pick. I said if they added one more high profile guy, I’d even bump it to an A-. Another 1/3 of a letter grade adjustment for an impact talent. I don’t see how this is all that radical.

    I haven’t given a great deal of thought to grading the draft for a few reasons. One, you know almost nothing about any of these guys based on a summer’s worth of AB’s. Two, im more concerned with the process than results, and will be for a while. I was really down on the Hewitt pick, but I LOVE the fact that they were willing to go all in, draft tons of upside guys, and sign almost all of them, while also adding hard throwing college pitchers with deficiencies. This is a great draft strategy, and its a great draft. I can’t give it an A because I really didn’t like our first round pick. Hewitt might be a star in 5 years. If he is, obviously this draft will be looked at even more favorably.

    Instead of micro-analyzing, i’ve focused on the big picture. The Phillies seem to have altered their stance on the draft, and I’m thrilled.

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  57. There are at LEAST 1500 picks every yr in baseball and even if not all the picks are signed when added with the indy guys and international signees I am sure it comes close to that. Then look at the 30 MLB teams. That’s 750 guys for all the 25 man rosters. That’s it. 2x the amount of capable players playing at the MLB level come into the minors EVERY year.

    Also I only went back to Sandberg because I didn’t want to google for more names. they are just guys I know did not go in top 10 rounds.

    And don’t get me started with the SHAM that is the ALL STAR game. Why was Varitek in there and why was Marmol? And Fukudome? My GOD!

    That’s 1 international guy and 1 first rounder. You change them with AJ Persinski and Bay and I am sure I can find a non 1st rounder to replace Marmol and his sham of an All Star and your stats are all thrown out the window.

    With such an expansive minor league systems, and fewer postions at the highest level available, the chances AT BEST for a minor leaguer to just reach the majors for 1-day cannot be greater than 10%.

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  58. The tone of this discussion is interesting and frustrating. Here are my general comments:

    PP Fan: I believe you are chosing the wrong stats to illustrate your point.

    If we want to address this issue here using stats as our tool, the valid questions (as I humbly see them) are:

    1) What is the percent of lower round players who both a) signed for over slot (should identify players who fell due to signability) and b) made the major leagues.

    2) same query but identifying which ones made the all-star game

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  59. “32% were first round picks; the next highest percentage were international players signed at 16 or younger (10.6%); then 2nd rounders at 9%. so more than half of the 2007 mlb all stars were either first or 2nd round picks or young international players. over 80% of the team was a top 10 pick or international signee.”
    32+10.6+9=80 No child left behind.

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  60. I’ve just been checking a lil and will take alot of resaerch but there was a team in 2004 that drafted both Joe Savery 15th and David Price 19th out of high school, I wonder if they signed those two if there draft for that year would be considered better. Alot of college guys drafted in the first round were drafted out of Highschool in lower rounds but did not sign. Also another first rounder from last year was drafted twice in the 14th round before being drafted in the first round last year, some bum by the name Matt Laporta. PP Fan if you actually do your homework on this one you will see theres are loads of talent drafted after the 10th round that just pefer to attend college before turning pro

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  61. hey first grade math, maybe you should call your post “first grade reading”. 80% of the picks were top 10 rounds or international signee. 32+10.6+9 are only the first, 2nd rounders or international signees. if you read the post that you quoted, you would see that i only gave the percentages for the first 2 rounds and the international players. add in the picks from the 3rd-10th round and you get the extra 28%.

    nice try though.

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  62. ooo i forgot to name the team from above post it was the dodgers who drafted savery and price in the same draft

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  64. The “All Star Game” thing is almost too silly to even address. Prospects sign, they develop or they don’t develop, and they either make it to the big leagues or they don’t. Pat Burrell has never made an all star game. I guess he was a failure as a 1st round pick. Oh wait, he’s been a productive big leaguer. [Note, any discussion of Pat Burrell in this string will be deleted, his name was mentioned to make a simple point].

    Lets look at someone in the Marlins system, since i don’t want to jinx one of our own guys by mentioning their names. Lets use Sean West, Marlins prospect. He was a first round pick. He was looking like a stud LHP prospect. Plus velocity, good strikeout stuff, front of the rotation type. Then he had Tommy John surgery and fell off the radar. Was it a dumb decision to draft him? Before the injury, he was showing a ton of potential, and he still might turn into an elite performer. But he was injured. Lots of prospects get injured. Lots of guys get derailed for a number of reasons. Josh Hamilton was a first round pick, got hooked on the needle and nose candy, and almost killed himself 3 times. Now hes an all star.

    You have to look at the process, not a statistic like “all star games made”. You draft and sign more impact talent, you have more chances to develop impact prospects and impact major leaguers.

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  65. I can’t believe the reaction from PP Fan’s comment. What makes this blog great is the debates. Censorship is not the way to go.

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  66. Since 2000 the only 1st rd HOFs inducted were:
    Molitor, Puckett, Winfield, and Fisk. That’s 4 out of 15. 15 HOFs since 2000, 4 were 1st rounders. Here is a stat for you: That means about 73% of HOFs since 2000 were NOT 1st round picks.

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  67. all star team is an objective measure of high impact players which is why i used it.

    citing an example of a pick that got hurt is not a relevant counter. i am pointing out stats with a large sample size. one or two here or there will wash themselves out over time.

    cromp – you have made the a valid counter point by attacking the data and suggesting valid counter examples. that being said, i have been clear from the beginning that a few players will slip through, but overall, they don’t have an impact.

    i am even tired of defending this point. seriously. no more posts from me on this. call me an idiot all you want. 🙂

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  68. I don’t think these stats tell the whole story in this situation. A lot of later draft choices don’t sign and aren’t accounted for. How many top 10 picks were drafted out of HS in late rounds and didn’t sign? I’d venture to guess its a substantial number.

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  70. It’s only because the tone of his comments were kinda condescending, statistics only work if you can back them up with raw numbers and proof. Not just one All star game from last year(I agree that the all star selection process is the biggest sham ever). While PP Fan does make a few valid points, I think on the Whole PhuturePhillies is right: the Front office has changed their draft philosophy some and are signing more Projectible HS late rounders that can only make the system on the whole better. If you only spend $50 to get $100 worth of lottery tickets and you end up with a $75 winner, are you upset?

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  72. I’m not defending PP Fan because I think he is right. I thought the same thing initially just likes PP Fan but there were excellent counter arguments to disprove. Again, what make this site great are the debates. Sometimes they may stray a little off topic but I find them to be very informative.

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  73. Here’s a look at the college players taken in the first round

    1.2 Pedro Alvarez [14th round, BOS, 2005]
    1.4 Brian Matusz [4th round, LAA, 2005]
    1.5 Buster Posey [50th round, LAA, 2005]
    1.7 Yonder Alonso [16th round, MIN, 2005]
    1.8 Gordon Beckham [undrafted in 2005]
    1.9 Aaron Crow [undrafted in 2005]
    1.10 Jason Castro [43rd round, BOS, 2005]
    1.11 Justin Smoak [16th round, OAK, 2005]
    1.12 Jemile Weeks [8th round, MIL, 2005]
    1.13 Brett Wallace [42nd round, TOR, 2005]
    1.17 David Cooper [undrafted in 2005]
    1.18 Ike Davis [19th round, TAM, 2005]
    1.19 Andrew Cashner [20th rd, ATL, 2005, 18th rd, COL, 2006, 29th rd, CHC, 2007]
    1.20 Josh Fields [2nd round, ATL, 2007]
    1.21 Ryan Perry [undrafted in 2005]
    1.22 Reese Havens [29th round, COL, 2005]
    1.23 Allan Dykstra [34th round, BOS, 2005]
    1.25 Christian Friedrich [undrafted in 2005]
    1.26 Dan Schelerth [8th round, OAK, 2007]
    1.27 Carlos Guitierrez [undrafted in 2005]
    1.29 Lonnie Chisenhall [11th round, PIT, 2006]

    This was from the baseball cube’s draft page, I didn’t dig deeper on the guys who didn’t have detailed draft info in their profile. But look at all that mediocre talent taken past the 30th round out of high school. How did these guys end up as first round picks?

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  75. Does anyone know where we can find information regarding whether they signed or not? Anyways, I hope you guys aren’t really getting mad at each other on here we’re all Phillies fans ya know and I really think they had a great draft. The draft is such a friggin crapshoot and I’m glad the Phils at least put some money into it this year instead of losers like AE.

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  76. I have a feeling that BA isn’t going to cover any of the signings, unless its in a release talking about a bunch of different deals, they are focused on the first rounders.

    I suspect it will either come through a back channel, ie, someone connected to the family, or through the Phillies website.

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  77. Lots of emotion on this board today but I appreciate the dialogue.

    PP, I understand you wanting to change the format but I hope you don’t eliminate comments altogether. Most of us are relatively new to analyzing the draft in such detail, not to mention understanding the many factors which affect a player’s career path through the minors. You’ve opened up a forum about a topic that confounds experts and insiders, let alone newbies and fans.

    Part of what makes this site so valuable is that it helps fill the very information gap that makes us sometimes write the stupidest things. (Just two weeks ago I was saying Taylor should maybe start 2009 again at Clearwater. DUH!) We’re all still learning and much of the thanks goes to you.

    Meanwhile, we understand how painful it must be to have to read comments that irritate you and make you question the worth of all your hard work. I would say it goes with the territory but you’re in relatively uncharted territory dealing with prospects in such scope and detail.

    Keep up the hard work, try not to get discouraged and above all, thank you very much.

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  78. 🙂

    I’ve made it my goal to try and be as level-headed as possible. I have a very aggressive personality by nature, which makes it even tougher. I think I’ve done a decent job, I guess I need to allow myself a slip-up every once in a while.

    I strongly disagree with PP Fan’s stance, and I just couldn’t help myself. I’d never censor comments here, I don’t want them to go away, I just need to maybe figure out a better solution. I’m working on it.

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  80. Hey fellas, just messaged Broxton and Weber on facebook seeing if they’re signin with us. Hopefully I’ll have an answer and hopefully they don’t think I’m a weirdo.

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  81. Phuturephillies Now maybe you can answer my question. Why would a six round choice sign for twenty five thousand. Josh Satin is the name

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  82. Phuture Phillies are you going to do a draft follow up after the deadline has passed with your thoughts on the draft and players ?

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  83. Looking at Baseball America’s estimated bonus chart, the average 6th round bonus is probably between $100,000 and $150,000. So, essentially they overdrafted these guys to save a few bucks bonus wise. Why they did this, I have no idea.

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  86. Rocky–

    I’m not familiar with Satin, but the reason that higher round picks sign for low level money is because their talent level doesn’t equal that of the rest of the players picked in that round. Teams select less talented players, give them an ultimatium of “take this 25K or we’re not signing you” and the team is able to bust slot on a couple other guys that they otherwise wouldn’t have been able to pay for.

    Up until this year, the phils FO were well known supporters of this approach. Thankfully they’ve abandoned it this year, because although in principle, drafting low round talent earlier to give money to the harder to sign players sounds reasonable, it ends up being a way to save money for the ownership and presenting a decent product rather than a championship caliber one.

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  87. The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn. Thank you . I just before you explained it couldn’t understand why now I do.

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  88. Teams also reduce bonus amounts if a guy is injured or has a medical that the team doctors are concerned about. They can choose to not sign the guy at all (Allan Dykstra this year, it appears) or they can say “we were going to offer $150K, but we don’t like the way your labrum looks on our imaging tests, so we can offer you $25K or you can not sign”, something like that.

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  89. Last year the phillies announced a signing of a prospect named johnson a centerfielder. About a week later I couldn’t find his name and email the front office. Johnson had a medical and the phillies pulled back the deal. The phillies said it was a shoulder concern so I understand what your saying.

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  90. I believe Satin was a college senior. So he can’t really do anything unless he wants to hold out and play Independent ball for a year. I’m sure he just took whatever their first offer was just so he could get his career started.

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  91. It’s funny how someone mentioned Facebook as a way of reaching out to these guys. I befriended Julian Sampson and Travis Mattair on there. While it’s not like we ever really have dialogue, it’s cool to learn more about these guys, and realize that they are just teenagers like anybody else.

    There are also some really cool photo albums that they have of the team, road trips, locker room pranks, etc. Definitely a fresh look into some of the minor league teams.

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  92. I dont want to miss the fun on this thread so I thought I’d chime in.

    Everyone is beating up on PP Fan for what he said. In a way he’s right and in a way he’s wrong. He’s right in that it is simply a very difficult task to make the major leagues. I believe the average is that 1.5 out of 50 draft choices per team per year make the majors (I feel like I remember reading that years ago, can anyone verify?) So if you are bringing up two drafted or signed internats per year then you are ahead of the curve (or you are constantly rebuilding and you suck.)

    However, as many have opined, you can never go wrong with pumping high ceiling impact talent into the minor league system. The more you sign, the more likely you will have some that rise to the majors. And it is ultimately still much cheaper than signing Adam Eaton as organizational filler. And a Keon Broxton is especially important considering our total lack of quality 3B prospects. So maybe he isnt worth a whole letter grade boost, but he definitely adds more to the system from an upside potential standpoint than a steve susdorf.

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  93. Just to add my two cents. Another important part of securing high ceiling prospects (and there can be no argument that such guys are available in the late rounds if you pay overslot) is it increases your flexibility with trades. Even if the guy never works out, he still could be a valuable chip for you…something the phils kind of lack these days.

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  94. PP – I love your site. Without it, we’d all have a tough time following the minors and the draft. Thank you.

    As for people evaluating a draft by the Susdorfs and Stutes. In that past, the team took so many easy signs that these two probably would have been drafted much higher. I look at it very positively that the team has taken a lot of high ceiling HS players, especially arms, and managed to sign some of them. (Although I think we’ll look back on Hewitt in five years as another in a long line of toolsy busts.)

    There is another way to look at this. If Susdorf and Stutes had signed then stunk against low A talent, we’d be having another discussion altogether.

    AK

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  95. “I believe the average is that 1.5 out of 50 draft choices per team per year make the majors (I feel like I remember reading that years ago, can anyone verify?)”

    I researched the numbers and posted here about it many months ago: odds of making the majors by draft round. I’m watching the game — a great match-up, Moyer vs. Maddux — otherwise I’d look for the spreadsheet.

    After the first round there was a huge dropoff. It tailed off fairly steeply and regularly. But lost in the forest are the trees of exceptions, some of whom stand way taller than the others. If you simply judge a player by his draft round you’re really not looking. You need stats, video, scouting, news, blogs, hearsay, rumors and everything else.

    I wish there were a way to see the history of my own posts so I could regret more of the dumb things I say. I might also be able to find that post about draft round vs. making the show.

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  97. BA’s Jim Callis is scheduled to be on the 12:20 Baseball Tonight on ESPN, and he’ll probably have the scoop on some last-minute signings. I have to think he’ll be concentrating on the remaining 1st rounders, though, so we may have to cross our fingers and wait to hear something out of one of the Philly outlets.

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  101. Jarred Cosart WEST RHP, 6-3/175, R/R, Clear Creek, League City, TX

    Summer Team – South Texas Sun Devils

    Aflac Report: August 11th, 2007

    Cosart is a prospect we saw for the first time about a year ago. He topped out at 93 mph from the mound, hit very well and even ran a good 60. He’s very athletic and with a very strong, fast arm. Unfortunately he suffered a minor injury during the workouts and was unable to pitch in the 2007 Aflac game. He did show his ability during the workouts and impressed our staff once again. His future is most likely on the mound, but he is a potential 2 way guy at the college level. His fastball is always in the low 90’s with good life at times. He should be able to master a good breaking ball and changeup as he continues to progress. Cosart has room to put on some more weight which might push him up into the mid 90’s in a hurry. His arm works very well and he gets good leverage. Cosart is just scratching the surface right now. He could really turn it on over the next few years. We wish everyone could have seen him pitch in the game.

    If true, sounds very, very promising

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  103. this will make you even more happy

    –Jarred Cosart, of-rhp, Clear Creek HS, League City, Texas. Cosart made Perfect Game history, and then some. Though he was selected to the Aflac All-America High School Classic last summer as a pitcher, he listed himself primary as an infielder last summer. Now he is primarily an outfielder, and Cosart threw an incredible 101 mph during outfield drills (along with a 99 and a 98), easily surpassing the previous highest velocity reading ever recorded at a PG showcase of 98 mph. Cosart threw one inning later in the day and sat at 93 mph and there are reports of his getting up to 97 mph this winter. Most everyone considers Cosart a pitcher primarily, so it will be interesting to see how his interest in playing a position plays out.

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  107. sorry pp. would’ve thrown it up myself originally but i was having problems copying the link and i’m flipping between the phils/padres game and the olympic game with donald and marson playing.

    Swindle struck out Marson in the 4th with RISP and Marson was robbed on a screaming line drive in his first at bat.

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  109. Wow. That’s all I’ve got. I hated this draft initially because I expected the usual Phillies effort in signing some of these guys. Way to prove me wrong. Kudos to whoever approved this draft budget for finally deciding to try and compete with the big boys.

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  110. Cosart and Weber are basically polar opposite prospects. Cosart has huge arm strength with mechanics that need work, while Weber has a very clean delivery but only average velocity. Knapp was essentially billed as the same type of prospect Cosart is, very big arm, needs to have his delivery cleaned up a bit and if they can do that, he’s got big time raw stuff.

    I’d have been happy with either. I frankly thought we had no shot at Cosart, though I did do a bit more reading about him earlier today.

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  112. read about him before. from what i can tell people say he’s throwing around 93 but when his body fills out he could add a little more velocity so if he can get up to 95-96 then we’d have a late round steal POSSIBLY. Seemed to have decent movement on his fastball and a sharp curve. glad they got another one. interesting to see where he starts, if anywhere. any thoughts PP?

    http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/2008/columnists/davidrawnsley/world_showcase_08.aspx

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  113. He might get an inning or two in the GCL, but his first real action will probably be in the Instructional League. I’d expect him to stay back in Extended next year and pitch at Williamsport. I guess if he really turns it on in Spring Training they might be aggressive and send him to Lakewood in May or so.

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  114. Governator —
    I agree with the value of adding high potential late round guys. PP Fan is wrong in judging talent by round. Although bargains are to be had, a better judge of how the baseball world views a guy’s talent is his signing bonus. For college seniors, who have little bargaining power, give a bit of an upgrade for early round, but I’d still judge by $ more than by draft position. By that standard, a lot of high quality guys were signed from later rounds this year, as is generally the case. Later round guys who pick up 1st to 4th round $. The teams do not shell out those bonuses out of the goodness of their hearts or because a really fringe talent prospect just stamps his feet and won’t sign without big $.

    I have to disagree with you on Broxton, though. He would be a good talent to add and would increase our odds of a home-grown 3B. He is hardly our only shot, however. I think Mattair is a better talent and further along in his developent.

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  115. First let me say that I love this website. Thanks to PP for having the best minor league player website of any major league team. One of the best things about it is how much the readers comment. Occasionally there arises a disagreement and there is nothing wrong with that. We are not dealing in absolutes, just opinions, however accurate a person who holds them believes them to be.

    I think PP can get just as worked up over his ideas as any of us. I can’t believe how devisive the discussion has gotten between PP and PP fan. Here’s what I think. the draft goes by two factors. How much of a sure thing a players talent is and how likely he is to sign. signability can drop players completely off some draft boards. The twins wouldn’t have picked Mark Prior a couple years ago even if he was available in the 20th round because there was no way they would ever sign him and it would have been a wasted pick. others get picked higher because a team knows they can sign a guy. I imagine the arguments that go on here aren’t much different from those that happen in MLB player development staff meetings.

    I will say that PP has been less forgiving of his readers since the Cardenas for Blanton trade. The guy he was arguing with was an idiot, but by the end of the argument PP’s position had changed from a position of using facts to support his position to arguing that the other guy was an idiot and he was not. The pendulum of PP’s persuasion still has not come back to center.

    Take it easy on “PP fan” Phuture Phils, He really wasn’t being confrontational. It’s good to get the blood worked up in debate, but we all like you too much and appreciate your site too much to see you get bent out of shape over something as subjective as the projectability of teenage baseball players.

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  118. http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseballpreps/article775863.ece

    After two months of negotiations, former Clearwater Central Catholic standout Ryan Weber has decided not to sign with the Phillies. Instead, the right-handed pitcher will play for St. Petersburg College.

    In the past two seasons, Weber was the most dominant pitcher in Pinellas County, going a combined 20-0 while striking out 143 and walking 15. He added 1-2 mph on his fastball and touched 91-92 mph on the radar gun.

    That got the attention of scouts and recruiting services. Baseball America listed him as the 27th-best prospect in Florida, the highest ranking among county athletes. In the days leading up to the draft, Weber worked out for the Marlins and Rays and was contacted by the Phillies.

    The Phillies, who showed the most interest, selected him in the 12th round of the amateur draft in June.

    Marti Wolever, the Phillies’ director of scouting, said a deal was reached with Weber during the draft. But Weber’s advisers wanted more after he was selected, according to Wolever.

    “The waters were muddied a bit,” Wolever said.

    In July, Weber decided to go to St. Petersburg College instead of the University of Florida. That same month, Wolever said the Phillies were going to use the money slotted for Weber on other picks.

    Nevertheless, negotiations continued with Wolever telling Philadelphia media outlets last week that the Phillies were still optimistic about signing Weber.

    Though talks lasted until Friday’s deadline, a deal was never reached. Weber could not be reached for comment.

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