It’s August, the final full month of the minor league season. There are a number of interesting story lines to follow over the final month. What I do NOT want to focus on is the big league club, unless a prospect is traded now in a post waivers deal, or if a player is called up. The last week or so, it seems like the entire discussion has been focused on potential trades, which is only natural because of the time of the year. But now its time to get back on track. With that, a few general thoughts….
* Jeremy Slayden’s name was brought up this week, with some wondering what to make of him and others asking why he wasn’t in the big leagues already. From my point of view, this one is simple. Slayden’s skill set is likely that of a short peak player who is likely to see a quick dropoff after his peak. He doesn’t have a ton of raw power, though he’s probably capable of 12-15 HR in the big leagues. He has a good plate eye, but isn’t going to be a 15% BB rate kind of guy. He strikes out a decent amount, but not enough to kill you. He doesn’t have a ton of speed, and rates slightly below average in that department. He doesn’t have a very strong arm due to the surgery he had in college, which limits him basically to LF because he doesn’t have the range for center. So you’re basically left with a tweener type player. From the Phillies point of view, it probably makes sense to wait until he’s entering his peak, which is probably going to be age 26-29 or so, before calling him up. This allows them to get Slayden’s best years production wise at the cheapest price.
* The trade deadline came and went, and Greg Golson remains. Golson’s season got off to a flier, he came back down to Earth a bit, and he’s been consistently inconsistent, having small stretches where he shows the complete package, including the ability to draw walks, followed by a number of poor games. The question is, does Golson have another developmental gear, or is this is? Is he likely to develop new skills after 5 full seasons in pro ball? At this point is he destined to become a 4th outfielder? Can the Phillies plug a guy likely to put up a .305 OB% into their lineup in RF when carrying a player with a similar OB% at C and 3B? Is Golson going to flip the switch and suddenly become a star? How much does his potential outweigh the clear negatives in his game? He’ll be added to the 40 man after this season and protected, and in fact, will probably be added in September when the rosters expand. I guess my question is, what has this season taught us about Greg Golson?
Phuture Phillies 
IMO, this season has shown that Golson is that he is what was stated by most scouts when he was drafted. A physically gifted, raw talent who is going to take time to develop.
I am actually incouraged by this season that he may actually become a decent ML OF at some time in the near future. Last year at this time, I would have put him in the Jeff Jackson category.
His next big step is to go from the .305 OB guy to a .330 OB guy by cutting down on the strikeouts.
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well said 3up3kkk. i agree. to suggest that he peaked (and i know PP isn’t suggesting that, but some might), is silly. this guy is on the upswing and will only improve. add in his plus plus defense, arm and speed and you can absolutly see him making a significant impact as an mlb regular. he is still very young and still has some refining to do. he would admit that. but this guy is showing that he will be an impact player for years to come. his BA will always be his weakest point. but he will make an impact in many other places.
Andrew Jones is a career .260 hitter. while golson doesn’t have jones’s pop, i believe that he does have his defense skills and out shines jones in the speed department.
i think that golson’s next big leap is to become a legit base stealer. to hone that skill and get to 40+ sbs. with that, the defense, 15-20 HR power and respectable ba%, i think that he is a great piece to have on an mlb team.
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Or he could be the next Joey Gathright.
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I’ve heard Golson described as a guy with Michael Bourn speed and a Victorino arm. People were freaking out about the possibility of trading him to Atlanta for Will Ohman, but suddenly he’s no better than a 4th outfielder? He’s shown improvements year in and year out and if his ceiling is that of a better defensive version of Michael Bourn, that’s still pretty valuable for this club.
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I think he should have been traded for anything that might have helped the big club right now. I hope I’m wrong but to me, this guy has bust written all over him.
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I suspect he’ll have some value, but probably closer to 4th OF than all-star. That his best minor-league seasons have come at high-A and AA is encouraging and would seem to represent some kind of progress. His BB rate this year is 6.8 percent, which is still bad but up from his previous Francouer-ish levels. The defense, speed and power are all there. But he hasn’t made “the leap,” obviously.
I’d call him up in September to fill the Bourn/Taguchi role and see if maybe he benefits from being around guys like Burrell and Utley and Werth. The concern over trading a guy like Golson too soon is that he could blow up into a superstar; I’m sure that when the Rangers dealt Sammy Sosa in 1990 or so, they didn’t think he’d amount to anything either.
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Both Golson and Slayden were in Clearwater last year, so I got to know both of them fairly well. (as well as a fan can) Golson has a big heart, and tries damn hard. He WANTS to improve and keeps working to improve. He recognizes his weaknesses and tries to minimize them while working on his strengths.
Slayden is a great personality and has some talent. He’s a great clubhouse guy, and I think has some decent potential. I completely agree with the assessment of him in this article.
Shifting gears a bit … since this is the “Friday Thoughts” and not just the “Golson/Slayden” thread. Did anyone see Joe Savery’s #s from last night? It was ugly. He lasted just one inning giving up 8 runs on 8 hits with 4 walks. It was a road game for the team so I did not see it, and I suppose I can thank goodness for that. He had seemed to be gaining some momentum and putting the early season sporadicism (is that even a word) behind him, so it was surprising to see. Hopefully it was a blip and he’ll recover quickly, but man…it was not pretty.
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PP, who would you compare Slayden to as a player that was called up in his peak “window”? He sounds like more than a TJ Bohn that only gets a sip of coffee. Maybe closer to a Jason Michaels?
Also, I saw some comments and web links here bashing the Phillies system on developing outfielders. I didn’t see a response from you and am interested in your opinion.
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i think Golson could be a ML regular on a “Pirates, Nationals” non contender but his warts (Strikeouts) would show too much on a contender. I hope I’m wrong but i agree with those that say 4th outfielder. If he develops more plate discipline, maybe a Jayson Werth type that could platoon with someone but his splits (at least this year) don’t seem to favor lefthanders or righthanders. I too would call him up in September to get him a taste and see if he could handle the role of Burrell replacment in late innings although i don’t see many SB’s in his future.
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On Savery; I think he’s gotta be hitting the wall in terms of endurance, and I think that might be one of the reasons they are letting him DH
As for a Slayden comp; maybe Jason Michaels with a bit more power
As for the Phillies developing outfielders; They really haven’t “developed” many outfielders that I can even think of. Victorino came in the Rule 5 and spent his time at AAA, Bourn I guess, but he was a college guy, and he looks like a fringe MLB guy right now. The Phillies have really only developed one prep position player, from out of high school the pros, in the last 10 years, and thats Rollins. Our best hitters have basically been college bats in Burrell, Howard and Utley. Once a guy is 21-22 out of college, theres no a lot of “development” to him, unless you are completely overhauling his swing mechanics.
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as far as Golson becoming a legit stolen base guy, we all know the saying “you can’t steal first base” he’s proven he can steal bases so as his batting average improves i’d expect the stolen bases to come, especially if he has the opportunity to work with Davey Lopes
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Most Phillies fans never considered Victorino and Bourn to be anything other than 4th outfielders, so I think we’re probably underrating his pro potential.
Look at the OBP of these elite CF prospects:
Carlos Gomez .289
Adam Jones .317
Jay Bruce .320
Jacoby Ellsbury .328
MLB on-base percentage in a rookie season is not comparable with AA OBP, of course, especially when the two players are the same age. I’m not saying he’ll become a star, but I think Phils fans are a little tough on Greg Golson. I think he’ll spend a long time in the major leagues, simply because there aren’t enough good center fielders.
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Savery has suffered a let down on not being promoted to Reading after having an outstanding July. Rather would have seen him in the Reading rotation than Carpenter. Carpenter, Slayden and Harman will likely wind up being career AAA/independent ball pieces bouncing from team to team in the future. Golson is a right handed hitting version of Michael Bourn with more power and a stronger arm. Check what Bourn has done this year and you will get an idea of what Golson would do with a few more homers as an everyday first year player in the ML.
Interesting article on D’Arnaud. He is the catcher of the future:
http://www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/513759.html?nav=5017
Positive article on D’Arnaud. He is the catcher of the future.
http://www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/513759.html?nav=5017
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This year has elevated Golson out of the ‘bust’ category, and has made him a player that is too valuable as just a throw-in for a mid-level reliever.
I wouldn’t bet anyone he makes an all-star team in his career, but the talent has at least been supplemented by a some actual performance this year, and that’s important.
He isn’t good enough to step into the lineup next year, but he is good enough that I want to see another season in AA or AAA.
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I tend to agree with Mike’s assessment and see Golson’s career following the same path of a Lastings Milledge, without all of the New York hype.
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RickeyBranch Why do you think susdorf will be sent back down.
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Maybe its just a Mets thing, but Milledge always struck me as a player with too much confidence in his natural ability. Golson might lack plate discipline, but he seems to have a solid work ethic. Milledge seemed cocky when he first came up, while Golson seems to lack confidence sometimes. Their toolsets might be similar, but they seem like vastly different individuals.
The most ambitious, yet somewhat realistic comparison I can think of is Torii Hunter. Hunter’s minor league numbers look extremely similar to Golson’s. Both were raw 1st round picks, who initially disappointed but improved drastically at age 22. Hunter’s offense jumped again the following year, when he hit twice as many home runs and gained .080 points in OBP. Despite this OBP increase in AAA, Hunter never really walked much and struck out a lot throughout his big league career. Golson’s natural ability is no worse than Hunter’s, and the two players share the same strengths and weaknesses.
Everyone would be thrilled if Golson became another Torii Hunter, and there isn’t much to suggest he couldn’t become a similar type of player. Golson hasn’t shown 25hr power yet, but neither did Hunter at the same age. Actually, I think Golson’s power numbers are better than Hunter’s for the first 5 years of their careers. I’m not saying Golson is the next Torii Hunter, but if he continues to improve, he could become a simliar type of player.
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It has taught us that the Phils have one hell of a hard time drafting players you can define. Well, except for Chase and Cole. Everyone knew they’d be studs.
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****Golson has a big heart, and tries damn hard. He WANTS to improve and keeps working to improve. He recognizes his weaknesses and tries to minimize them while working on his strengths.****
That’s the biggest thing he’s got going for him honestly and the reason I still think he can be something in the Majors. He might be a MLBer till he’s 26 but he might be a good one when he DOES make it.
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I think Golson should be given a shot at being the 5th OF next year. I think a guy could just end up getting down on himself after too long in the minors. You might lose a ‘cheap’ year on him giving him limited at bats but being around some players that ‘get it’ could be the best thing for him. I don’t want to sound like the Phil’s FO but guys with his skill sets don’t just fall out of the sky. It does look like it’s starting to ‘click’ for him and perhaps what he needs is a big challenge.
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How is Golson in terms of taking routes to fly balls? I’ve seen him a few times in Reading and combined with various reports, I’m left with the opinion that he isn’t exactly solid as a defender. Perhaps it’s not a major problem, but I’d feel a hell of a lot more comfortable about him coming up in September if he could be counted on defensively. I think he probably peaks as a 4th OF’er/spare part type of player. Exciting but not dependable.
As for the comment about D’Arnaud as the catcher of the future, have you seen Lou Marson? I’m excited about what Travis is doing, but he’s so far away right now that to say he is “the catcher of the future” is just delusional. You may very well be correct and I join in your enthusiasm, but it’s way, way too early to engage in that kind of talk.
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Interesting discussion on Golson here. Baxter’s comparison to Hunter is very intriguing, and I think we’d all be thrilled if Golson became anything like Torii Hunter. I’ll admit to being fixated on BB and K rates because I think they’re one of the best indicators of future success; but a guy like Hunter is proof that project-type players can improve those rates and even become All-Stars as they develop their skill set. Whatever the case, I’m going to disagree with you a bit here, RodeoJones: I think the best thing for Golson is regular at bats, so I’d promote him to Lehigh Valley next year and bring him to Philly only when he either: (A) forces the organization’s hand; or (B) is filling in nearly full-time for an injured outfielder.
And I for one am disappointed at Savery’s outing from last night, if for no other reason than it looked like he had turned the corner. Obviously no one’s judging him solely from this outing, but I’m hoping he’s been able to use this season as a learning process. Reading next year will be a big test for him, and as Joe gets another season of full-time pitching under his belt, we’ll have to hope he can rise to the occasion.
And finally, this was mentioned in one of the other threads, but Trevor May and Nathan Fike made their debuts for the GCL Phils today (in relief of Jason Knapp, who had his best outing at 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K). And why have Zach Collier and Anthony Gose dropped completely off the radar — injuries?
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Count me in the 4th outfielder camp with Golson, mainly due to his speed and defense. My guess is he’ll struggle with plate discipline his entire career. After 5 years of pro ball, the odds aren’t good he’ll finally figure it out, but if he is a late bloomer his other tools will play that much better. I think the Phillies should showcase him and look to include him in a deal, one of several prospects it will take to get an ace. He has the tools to show up on SportsCenter and create enough oohs and aahs to attract interest.
I have high regard for Marson, D’Arnaud (thanks for the link Rickey Branch), Taylor, Donald and pitchers Drabek, Brummett, Naylor, Carrasco, Garcia, Savery, De Fratus, Sampson, Worley and some others. But do we really have any untouchable prospects when it comes to dealing for an ace?
When it comes to dealing for a known ace vs. developing one, you have to go for the proven track record over potential. So for an ace like Halladay, no one should be untouchable.
Dealing for a bat is another story, in which case I’d say most of the guys above should be untouchable. Personally, I’m relieved that a deal for Manny Ramirez was nixed if it included two or more of them. Bats are far more obtainable than pitchers, especially aces.
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@PhillyFriar – I see your point but at a certain point you have to see what you have with a guy, and anyway I think that taking flyballs in center with Vic, talking hitting with Manuel and Utley and working on baserunning with Lopes is what he needs now. I think you force HIS hand and see what he has. It takes pressure to make diamonds.
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yea golson is the perfect guy in september to come in for burrell as a defensive replacement late in the game in september, and I also wonder what happened to collier and gose
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IF I’m wrong about Golsen and Slayden , it will be #132,332.5 times I have been wrong about something – this year.
I think neither is a major league talent – at least not at this time. (That’s leaving me an out because I really think they are both minor talents, period.) Real talent has a way of showing itself through the ups and downs. It’s always lurking around somewhere.
But as I said, I am no more right than all the other guys who try to predict who’s going to make it. By the way, after a big initial splash, Gavin Floyd’s last 10 game have been at the level of a #3. That’s where he is going to settle in. I think Carrasco can do the same but he may need one more year. If he is anything more than that, I will wrong again.
Joey
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As a frequent RPhils observer I would have to agree on the some of you who are downplaying Golson and Slayden. The comparison between Slayden and Jason Michaels is close, but I think Michaels holds a slight talent advantage. Golsen reminds me of Reggie Taylor…uggg!
Crupper seemed to nail the profile of both of these guys…..Slayden is a “baseball guy” but I dont see him as much more than a MLB reserve. Golsen does seem to have a great work ethic, but we might know more in a September call up
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Joey:
I think Gavin is pitching better than a number three. Look at his last ten games. He is in the top ten in the American League for pitchers for most catagories.
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Torii Hunter’s K/BB ratio was about 2.5/1 for his first five professional seasons.
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Hey Joey….Im with ya on being wrong! I thought Benson would be a contributor this year …….in fact I also thought Wade Miller would be a darkhorse back of rotation guy for us this year…YIKES! (Stay tuned til next year for that one!)
I too am a fan of the strikeout to walk ratio….at least in minor leaguers who we try to project to MLB. Johnny Estrada was a fine catcher here in Reading and was a great contact hitter….very few strikeouts. When he was here he struck out only 20 times in 356 AB!! But, he only walked 10 times…….while batting .295.
Lou Marson has 65 walks this season and 69 strikeouts. Golson has 23 walks and 100 strikeouts in the same number of ABs (317). I am sooo glad that Marson wasnt given away at the deadline……he is our catcher of the future…(the very near future)!
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I saw Golson and Slayden back in May. I really like Slayden. I don’t think he’ll be a superstar but he’s a ball player. I saw him hit a homer to win the game. He went with an outside pitch coming in at 95 MPH and sent it over the wall. He looked good during other ABs too. He looks like he knows how to play the game. He does what he can do. He’s not full of tools but he uses what he has very well.
Golson played LF for half the game and CF for the rest. Victorino was rehabbing and he played CF for the first 4 innings. It was fun watching two guys who can fly chase down balls in the outfield. Gappers were cut to singles or run down. After Vic left the game, Golson was the Flash out there. There were 4 or 5 balls that when they were hit I said, “Oh, crap!”. But Golson ran them down. It kept the game close for the Slayden heroics. I’ve heard people say he sometimes doesn’t take a direct route to the ball. I don’t know if Vic inspired him or he was seeing the ball well, but he wasn’t wasting any real estate.
I know 1 game is not a sufficient sample but I think Golson will be a Torii Hunter type fielder. He went 0-4 with 2 or 3Ks as I remember but he has hit well at times this year. Having the tools and willing to work hard is more than you can ask. Let’s hope it all comes together.
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while we are being optimistic with who we think Golson will end up as, I think Torii Hunter’s frame lends to a bit more power than Golson does. Or at least when I saw him play i thought he was a bit on the thin side. My guess would be more of an alex rios type with toronto. He has speed to steal bases and has shown he can hit for power but not consistently enough to label him a power hitter. Defensively he may be like Torii but i think if he succeeds in the majors it will be more off speed than power
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I think certainly that Golson is a 5th outfielder par excellance.
No Matter What. If he is tutored by Davey Lopes in the SB area all the better.
I am for letting him have a full year in AAA no matter what
he is still young, if he is to progress in areas that he is weak in, average and walks, then more development time, the more time in the oven the higher the chances he moves to becoming a 4th outfielder ala Werth par excellance.
If everything aligns, the player I see him mirroring is
Mike Cameron. Hit hit .260 and played CF and was
a difference maker on many GOOD top tier clubs.
We will see. Let’s root for the big heart. I would hate to see
his development stopped when assigned to be a late
inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.
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I’m optimistic about Golson mainly because at worse he settles into a 4th/5th outfielder role for defense and running. Just like Bourn was a huge part of the team in that role last year, if you have plus speed & plus defense you can play a huge role in the team. At best he can turn himself into a star CF with power at the plate.
The fact that you hear how much about his work ethic, and how he is willing to work hard is definitely a positive. If he was a 5th-6th round pick rather then a 1st round pick I think a lot of peoples opinions of him would be different.
Slayden is an interesting guy, because he doesn’t really have any plus skills and is a little old so he’s often dismissed. I think reserve outfielder is a safe bet for what he becomes.
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I’m not sure I buy either Hunter or Cameron as a possible comp; skin color and defensive skills aside.
While neither player showed great discipline in the minors, they were a heck of a lot better than Golson has been so far.
K/BB from at ages 21-22
Cameron – 205/114
Hunter – 171/67
Golson – 273/46
That’s a pretty significant difference, and as others have mentioned, this stat is one of the best at predicting future success.
Unless your Ryan Howard and have insane BAIBIP because you kill the ball when you hit it, you can’t be a good player and have those peripherals.
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Blergh. ‘Your’ in that last graph should be ‘you’re.’
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Right now I’m expecting Corey Patterson and hoping for something more. He’s a hard worker which is his 6th tool and the one he needs most right now. He’s still 22 so he’s got some time left to develop. If he had gone to college he’d be in the NY-Penn league right now so we should all remember that.
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did anyone else see this story on philly.com about the Phils & the money they spent (or did NOT spend) on INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS thus far???
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Those_Post-Trade_Deadline_Blues.html
now i understand that these #s cant be entirely correct, but it gives ya a very good outlook on the lack of $$$ that the ownership allots for this volatile market….
about what 20 (??)players were signed for more than what the Phils spent in total??
this absolutely hurts our prospects and the quality of our system
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James, I think this whole thread should be saved so that four years from now, we can just switch Hewitt’s name with Golson’s.
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Rudy Seanez to DL, Les 17 K Walrond called up to the show. Let’s see what he can do.
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Agree Golson needs a year in AAA. Sure, he has shown flashes of performance that give hope. But this year definiitely does not make him ready for majors. A year in AAA followed by careful matchups against pitchers he can handle for a year or two and exposure to more disciplined major league hitters is the ticket, IMO. That is the best chance to develop him into a regular player.
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First, it’s reassuring to hear about Golson’s work ethic and commitment. Utley’s game had some warts when he was young too.
Secondly, I just read the D’Arnaud article, and he sounds like he is an excellent catcher whose real strength is his defense. Although I should point out that his picture makes him looks like he is about 15 years old
– Jeff
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TheSportSavant. A week ago I brought up that point and you can’t believe how many people tell me they are doing a good job in the latin market. They mention ,carrasco, ruiz.and some pitchers who had a cup of coffee in the majors .Where are the stud prospect is silva a stud? They were one of the last to enter the latin market. people have to realize they will not go all out to win. They are happy be competative. And if by some miracle they win great if not as long as they stay close that good enough for them.They are not win at all cost for the fans its can we break even. If they cared workmen, riley cooper, joe saunders , J.D drew,gibson would have been signed.There system would have been better to help the big club
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“They were one of the last to enter the latin market.”
I’m not satisfied with the Phillies record with Latin players either. There’s some history there but it feels sparse. I’ve wondered if it was about demographics and the fan base, or what. But the Phillies need some more salsa in the clubhouse, that much is sure.
Don’t look now, Quintin Berry is on fire in Clearwater. .400 OBP in July, last 10 games he’s hitting .370 with 17 hits 4 walks.9 steals (caught twice) and 10 runs.
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Saturday – Today’s words children are: (1) depressed (2) more depressed and (3) most depressed.
But this line did give me a smile: THE FARM IS SAFE.
Safe from what? Talent?
I have watched this team man and boy since my dad first had to take me out of a ballyard and rush me into the fort because the indians were attacking. My guess is long before 95% of you’all were born. Nothing much has changed.
This team always keeps people long after their lack of talent has become apparent. Like they want to sqeeze the last dime out of them or they play a lot of CYA.
Players who have the natural talent to play in the big leagues show it along the way. Not to say they can’t have a bad game but never a bad season. The reason is they have the talent to play in the bigs so they have more than enough to play in the minors. Sure they have a few things to learn but the talent is always there. Identifying these guys seems to be a bigger problem than it should be.
Albert Pujols was a great player in community college. He was 19 when he entered the draft. He had shown a lot of talent and yet, the guys who are supposed to know talent when they see it, let him hang around for TEN (10) rounds. The cardinals finally took him but without enthusiasm. The reason I guess was he played at a small school. Here’s a thought: the fact that a guy does well at a small school is no guarantee he can do it at a larger school or in the major leagues. BUT neither is there anyh guarantee that he can’t.
So at 19,Albert steps to the plate in A ball. He played at A, AA, and AAA levels all in his first year, killing all three. Few K’s, big average, plate discipline, power – showed it every step of the way in the minors at 19.
Next year, albert is in the majors and his talent came along with him. He creamed the majors in year #1 and has continued to do so every year since. Talent is talent. Superior talent is superior talent. How could they all miss this kid?
Watching kids and hoping and clutching at straws just doesn’t get it done. Real major league talent is apparent along the way ala Cole Hamels despite his current woes.
So who do we have that shows that talent? Well no pitchers at A, AA, or AAA. Unless I missed one. I still have hopes for Monasterios (?) and I thought Naylor had a shot. Now I am not sure. I don’t expect kids with big time major league talent to be squashed by minor league players unless they are coming off injuries as Monosterious was. .
Hitters are much the same. If they have enough talent to eventually play in the majors, that talent should be apparent along the way. Cerrtainly there may be things for them to learn but that raw talent should be obvious. And learning at the minor league level shouldn’t take long. 90% of the players in the lower levels never will get to the majors so even there, they would have less talent than our budding star.
In business, there is a saying. It’s not 100% but it has merit. “If things don’t happen when they should, the chances are they won’t happen at all.” I think that’s true in baseball too, especially at the minor league levels.
I guess for young hitters. learning to hit a breaking ball is the first thing they need to do. But Albert didn’t. Albert knew the secret. Make the pitcher come to you. Make him throw strikes. Plate discipine. Albert had it. He was patient and he made the pitcher throw strikes. Success for him was that simple. That talent was obvious at all his minor league stops. He still had it when he got to the majors in his next year. (2001). That’s why watching a kid’s K’s and BB’s is so important. Good OPS with limited K’s is an indicator of future success. Not a guarantee maybe, but a good indicator. Like WHIP for a pitcher.
Albert Pujols is so good he should be the blueprint for a super star.
So I am looking in the top three levels for someone with some major league talent. is Michael Taylor that kind of player? What about Marson? I can’t see Golson finding plate discipline and that is what’s holding him back. No matter what other skills he has, if he continues to lunge at off speed pitches, he won’t make it as anything but a defensive replacement. When you have an obvious weakness, that’s all they go for in the big time.
How about Donald? People in the know tell me he doesn’t have the defense to make it as a starter in the bigs. But what about his bat? He is donig ok so far at Reading.
So where is the next star coming from? I am losing faith in Savery. Drabek could be the guy but it’s way to early for him. Trying to make Mike Smith into a pitcher (what is he, 31:) is an exercise in futility. Castro is Castro. Bastardo is still hurt and he still have a lot to overcome. Who knows about him.
These guys get to draft 150 players and pick up a free agent or Rule #5 player or two. Is this the best they can do?
It never ends in this town. They brought Happ up I guess to wash cars since even on this bad pitching staff, they haven’t been able to give him a shot.
So here’s what it looks like It’s not B/A, it’s J/A.
1. Lou Marson
2. Michael Taylor.
3. (Chuck) Berry
4. Carlos Carrasco
5. Andrew Carpenter – yes, that Andrew Carpenter.
6. Carlos Monasterious – because I want to.
7. Antonio Bastardo – probably in the pen – no, not the state pen, the bull pen
8. Clay Harris – check back with me in two weeks.
9. Drew Naylor- maybe
10. Jeremy Slayden – role player
11. Edgar Garcia – has disappointed at Reading but –
12. Greg Golson – because I need 12.
I could be way off base but I am anything but pleased at the Phillies prospects. And I can’t really list Joe Savery after the way he has pitched at Clearwater. Maybe next year. As i said, Drabek is all on hope right now.
Mike Arbuckle was interviewed the other day and he said they hoped, “Meyers would give them what they could have gotten from the other pitchers available.” Really. Harden? Sabathia? Burnett? Really????
Jeez that would be great. Especially since he never was anything much even in his best years. Check out his numbers. They were classic mediocrity.
I know nothing about Lakewood or the other clubs so maybe there is hope down there.
Drew Naylor, gives up 120 runs in 3 IP. Not to worry, we always have Savery. No, we don’t. He gave up 10 runs in one IP. Jeez what about JD Durbin who always pitches well at AA but seems to have a small problem at AAA. They moved him up for the third or forth time and he gives us 28 runs in about 2/3 of one inning.
Garcia gets tatooed three times in a row. Carrasco keeps slipping backward. Brummett has looked dismal at Reading.
The best looking pitcher in the system (A, AA, AAA) right now could be Bastardo because he isn’t pitching.
Think I am too pessimitic. Okay straighten me out byemail. Chonors686@Aol.com. Put something in the subject line to let me know not to delete.
Pick one guy who looks like he has real major league potential on his PERFORMANCE. Not what somebody else things about him. Who would that be? Lou Marson?
Yep. I would say Lou Marson. And they could use a catcher with a bat. Two guys lying in waiting: Michael Taylor and Clay Harris – maybe.
Joey
If the Phillies make the playoffs, and have to face either the Cubs or the Twins, I don’t like their chances. Both teams have two quality #1’s.
When do the Sixers start?
Joey
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Just to let everyone know Rudy Seanez is on the DL and The Phillies Called up Les Waldond Would some tell me if he is any good Much Appreciated
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dude you need to edit yourself…that is ridiculous
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joey you conveniently missed dominic brown, dominating with discipline and power at lakewood. you also glossed over the fact that donald and marson are both clearly headed for the majors with good plate discipline and hitting skills. in marson’s case, whether or not he develops serious power will be irrevelant as any hitting you get out of a catcher is a plus. further down travis d’arnaud has been a stud also, but he’s a little far out.
the problem is most of the guys with upside in the system are between the gcl phils and lakewood, so they’re a long way away.
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PP Fan
Are you talking about me I just woke up and checked the Phillies web site. I ussally dont try to write in complete sentences when I comment.
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Joey. You are not to far off the mark. We all know there is nothing at AAA and I just finished watching Reading play three games this week and the only guy I saw that could help the team right now was situational lefty Sergio Escalona but they chose to call up another starter ,Walrond, from AAA to sit with the other AAA starter they just called up, Happ, in their pen. Makes sense to them I guess. At high A other than Michael Taylor the cupboard is bare of future ML position talent. I thought that they were DHing Savery to get him ready to pitch at AA where pitchers hit against NL team but not. So I can only conclude that Savery could be shifted to First sooner than later to get ready for the post Howard era. Right now the only excitement in the Phillies farm system is at the Low A, Short Season and the Rookie leagues where hope always springs eternal after ready articles like these where host mom Frannie’s cooking is turning Michael Schwimer into a strike out machine in Williamsport and Dominic Brown is doing his Daryl Strawberry impression to help Lakewood win :
http://www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/513826.html?nav=5017
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080801/SPORTS0301/80802001/1002/SPORTS
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Carrasco promoted to AAA to take Waldond’s Spot.
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I highly doubt Savery is being shifted to first to compromise for the future Ryan Howard departure. Also, joey, besides disagreeing with just about everything you said, I do not see us facing the Twins as being an issue. Wouldn’t that mean we already beat the Cubs/Brewers/Diamondbacks/Dodgers/Cardinals? I can only assume you meant to say the “Cubs or Brewers.”
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Phillies808 – no, i was talking about joey’s long winded rant. he needs to cut that down. he waste’s a lot of space making ridiculous points. he is free to make those horrible points, i just ask that he does so in less text.
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I don’t like this Carrasco promotion at all. The Phillies have rushed Carrasco at various points in his development — never to good effect — and I think they’re doing the same thing here. I realize the Walrond promotion left the rotation short at Lehigh Valley, but why not call up Fabio Castro instead (who’s already 23 years old)? I’d just prefer to see Carrasco dominate Double-A before making the jump to the next level.
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do we have a verification on the carrasco promotion? didnt see anything about it on the ironpigs or mlb phillies site…
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I love the posts on Golson. He’s a true wild card and, really, nobody knows. If I were a betting man, I’d guess he’s going to be a poor man’s Torii Hunter which is to say, a rich man’s Shane Victorino. I could live with that.
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Just saw the bit about the Carrasco promotion. I think it’s a mistake too. If I were the Phillies, I’d shut him down nice and early this year, let him take a long winter off (no fall or winter ball) and start him AAA next year with an eye to keeping him there until he dominated, which could be 3 months, one year or two years. Honestly, he’s trade bait I would use if given the right deal. I wouldn’t lose any sleep if they traded him whereas I would lose sleep (not really, but you know what I mean) if they traded Donald or Marson.
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i definately agree carrasco has done nothing to earn a promotion to double a and needs more seasoning there because he is so damn inconsistent, its always one great start followed by a bad one, he needs to put together a string of strong starts
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Rocky: The Phils have done an “ok” job in Latin America and have shown improvements but just because they have “improved” in the last few years doesn’t mean they are where they should be based on the franchise.
I dont expect them to go and sign 5mill worth of players like the Yanks, Red Sox (and Padres) this year, but I do think that they should be representing themselves as much higher than a “near the bottom among major-league teams. (Salisbury quote)”
Pundints will point out that Carrasco at $100k proves quality and efficiency. So what if they signed more players of the Carrasco, Ruiz mold to lower level #s– wouldn’t that in turn get us more potential prospects??
Another point that will be brought up (possibly) is ‘TOTAL $$$’ on new players/prospect- combine the mlb draft numbers with those the Int’l period…. I can’t imagine the Phillies being in the top 10 with that combined #.
there is also the prominent thought that in the last two years (+/-), that the price/cost for Int’l players has essentially doubled, if not tripled (so a $100k player 3 yrs ago is now a $300k player).
Any of these matters, is also in some ways meaningless when it comes to the Int’l players in one aspect: All these sigings take is MONEY…. just free spending cash. There is no draft position, there is nothing but throwing money at prospects that your scouts (which is another issue- the # of scouts and the budget spent there) find and rate.
In a few years IMO, there is going to be a WORLD DRAFT… not this free capital thing, in which the Phils owners dont allot significant money (vs other franchises)
$1.5mill is the money that will be spent on what draft picks?? (who knows those singing bonus, slot #s?)
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what is the harm in pushing carrasco? the “jump” from AA to AAA is very small. maybe one of the smallest in the minors. he will see a few more veteran minor leaguers but it is not a huge leap. i like challenging kids. even if they fail, they need to learn how to bounce back and respond. if they don’t, then they will never make it. kid gloves are off!
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Alright, joey, I reread your post and it has frustrated me to the point where I will now emphasize my disagreements. First, being a fan for longer than “95%” of us have been alive is absolutely meaningless, in my opinion. The current ownership group bought the Phillies in 1981, I believe, and so an argument could be made that for a fan to truly understand the Phillies Organization, they would have to have followed the team since that point in time. However, I do not think that is even valid, as MLB is an ever-changing and evolutionizing entity, one that depends on players and managers, who are only human, just like the rest of us. With that in mind, I do not think it matters the least if you have been following to game for five years or fifty.
I agree that players with the natural talent to play at the major league level show it along the way, but it is laughable if you think true prospects cannot have a bad season as they are developing. You continue on to say that it seems like the Phils have a problem identyfying talent. Finally, you provide Albert Pujols as a shining example to both of your statements. Well, I can provide many, many more examples to conradict what you are saying. Hundreds of players endure bad seasons in the minor leagues. It is only natural, ecspecially when young men are adapting to a new lifestyle, new bat, new league, new team, new instruction, and new just about everything else. How about Utley’s 2001 season of .257/.312/.422? Does that qualify as a bad season for one of the greatest players in the game today? How about David Wright? Did his .266/.364/.401 season promise greatness? As I could list hundreds of examples, I will just leave you with one pitching example before I move on. Sabathia had a 3.58 era, 1.34 whip during his age 20 season between A+ and AA. Doesn’t that compare well to Carrasco’s age 20 season between A+ and AA where he compiled an era of 3.86 and a whip of 1.30? I guess that means that Sabathia and Carrasco are going to have similar careers, seeing how players cannot have fluctuating developmental years as they refine their mechanics or swings.
Your entire example of Albert Pujols bothers me as it is clearly an abnormal happening in the world of baseball. No one in the baseball community tries to label the draft and player development as a science, a science that is never wrong and can always predict the best young talent. That is part of the fun, no one knows exactly who the best players will turn out to be. Clearly, the Phillies were not the only front office who did not think highly of Pujols. Also, Pujols is clearly the exception to the rule rather than the rule itself. For the most part, most of the MLB talent gets drafted in the first 5 rounds, or signs for a decent amount of money from an international market. My last point on Pujols is the fact that he was playing at community college. Great stats mean nothing at community college. As an example, I have three friends who play community college ball who spend much more time drinking than they do playing ball. CC sports are a joke. If all of baseball was to pay attention to players who put up great stats at a CC, then the minors would be filled with average joes messing around for a living. Ridiculous.
You then go on to say that we have no pitchers with talent at the A, AA, and AAA levels. I think this is a very shortsighted and ignorant comment. We may not have another Cole Hamels at any of those levels currently, but as we just watched our major league team scurry for left-handed relievers and another starting pitcher to fill out the roster, it becomes apparent that Hamels isnt the only talent level with contributes to a succesful major league team. With that in mind, I think Happ (I know he is now in the majors), Carrasco, Bastardo, Brummett, Carpenter, Garcia, Drabek, Monasterios, Naylor, Savery, and Sampson all have excellent chances to help bring a world series to Philadelphia. Also, I think a few of these players have a chance at becoming number 1/2 type starting pitchers.
Next, you say Albert Pujols should be the blueprint for all future stars. I think this is very silly. He is an excellent blueprint, I will agree, but what happens when kids with similar talents/traits to those of Pujols just fail to adjust or develop properly? It happens constantly. Also, what about the hundreds of other ways to be a star. Would you not want Suzuki on the Phillies because he is not in the mold of Pujols? Finally, if Pujols is such an easy blueprint to follow, I would love for you to tell us about who will become succesful from the ’09 draft in the mold of Pujols. Perhaps, we could fax it over to CBP.
Then, you move onto Brett Myers. And, yes, it is spelled Myers, even though you have Spelled it Meyers countless times. Now, whether or not you think Myers can rebound to his old form is debatable. However, to say that Myers’ best seasons were mediocre is foolish. Sabathia had a 3.83 era and a 1.23 whip for cleveland this year before he was traded. Myers pitched to a 3.72 era and a 1.21 whip in 2005. Which is it? Is Sabathia mediocre like Myers, or was Myers a very good major league starter? Cannot have it both ways, joey.
You then continue on once again to cite several ignorant examples, all of which have the sample size of no more than one start. Yes Naylor got bombed his last time out, but what about his two prior performances. You know the ones I am sure, where he gave up exactly one earned run in 13.1 innings pitched. I geuss those starts are irrelevant, as his most recent start was the stat you wanted to cherry pick to try and prove your opinions.
Finally, and I do mean finally, I have already talked up the Cubs/Twins comment above, so I geuss I am done for now. Sorry if this post was long, and I am sure parts of it are a bit incoherent, but I felt it was neccesary.
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well if carrasco was still in double a it would be his turn to start tonight does anyone know when he will debut with the iron pigs, also does anyone know when bastardo is due back or is he done for the year, he was starting to dominate double a before he got injured even though his walk totals were ridiculous
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Joey exagerates, but I think it is true that at this point our farm is quite weak. Probably 60% of teams have stronger farms. That doesn’t mean we don’t have quite a few legit prospects. Just not as many as the average organization and falling short on the true blue chippers. Don’t know what Joey sees in Monasterios. If I had to rank our top dozen after the Blanton trade, which wiped out the guys I previously ranked #2 and #6, I’d list them as:
Marson
Carrasco
Drabek
Garcia
D’Arnauld
Donald
Savery
Taylor
Golson
Galvis
Mattair
Bastardo
Not going to rank anyone from this year’s draft
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Allentown: I just looked at the pre-season Baseball America top 100 prospects. Now it seems pretty obvious that they seemingly give much higher rankings to those players who are closer to helping their MLB team.
I think THAT fact keeps the Phils system in the middle- at least until next year or 2010. The prospects you listed, seem to be a year or so away from being on the “front step.”
I do see potential that the Phils could have 3-4 guys in the top 100 going into next year, w Marson and Donald joining Carrasco (Savery??)
It is then up to guys like Bastardo, Taylor, Drabek and D’Arnauld to improve those “2nd tier/B” prospects while last yrs class & this draft class give up DEPTH (a foreign word to us fans) throughtout our system……
do you feel that is accurate??
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Susdorf, for whoever was asking, is being sent back down because now that Brown is back from his minor shoulder injury, Lakewood is chock full of potential outfielders. He also nearly went 0-for in his time in Lakewood, which is currently a contender for the sally league playoffs…the only Phillies farm team that has a shot, I might add.
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Why Walrond? Is Bisensius basically org filler now, or has that been the case for a while?
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1- Marson
2- Carrasco
3- Donald
4- Happ
5- Drabek
6- Brown
7- Golson
8- D’Arnaud
9- Taylor
10- Savery
11- Garcia
12- Bastardo
13- Naylor
14- Collier
15- Galvis
There are a lot of other guys that could be put in the 15-25 spots, Jaramillo, Sampson, Mattair, Hewitt, Knapp, De Fratus, Worley, Stutes, Brumett.
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i’m guessing they are taking a gamble to see if maybe Walrond can turn into the situational lefty they were looking for
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B:
I didn’t count Happ because he’s in majors, but if I were considering him among prospects he would be in my top 10. I forgot Brown. He bumps Bastardo from my list and should be after the 2-years older Taylor on my list.
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Tough night for Reading – looks like its going to be this way without Donald, Marson, and Carrasco for the rest of the year.
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Joey – Albert Pujols went to Maple Woods Community College before he was drafted. It’s in Kansas City, the hometown of Mike Arbuckle. Arbuckle knew of Pujols back when he was 16 and knew he could hit. He was a pudgy, way overweight catcher with a real bad body. I guess that’s why no one drafted him early. The Cardinals’ scout begged them to draft him in the 3rd round and management was skeptical that high. In theory, I guess you can’t teach a player to hit, but you can remake a body.
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Carrasco is our top pitching prospect. I’d move him to AAA. He also has innings left. If we look at the 30 inning rule (or whatever they call it), Carrasco pitched 140 innings last year and only 114 innings so far this year. He’s got 50 plus innings left before you shut him down. I think we all agree Savery should be shut down because he’s approaching the threshold. Naylor is there too. He’s pitched 131 innings and last year he pitched 93. The 93 was at Williamsport so he might have pitched somewhere else too. Brummett’s pitched 144 innings at 3 levels this year. Last year he pitched 76 at Williamsport and he was pitching for UCLA before that. It might be time to limit his innings.
I like the idea of moving Carrasco now. He’ll be playing with a bunch of AAAA guys at LHV. He’s been the spring training before so now he’s comfortable with it. Once at AAA, he’s as high as he’s going to go before he’s in the bigs. I think this will make him ready to compete in AAA. He might even get a call up in September. I think he’ll struggle at AAA but I hope he’ll have a decent outing or two that will boost his confidence further. He has the pitches. He needs to get a swagger.
Another reason I’d move him to the Pigs is the catcher. Marson’s off to the Olympics and he’s known to handle the staff well. Who’s there now? I think Jaramillo will help him transition. Some of Happ’s, Mazone’s and Walrond’s success has to be attributed to Jaramillo. Now that Carlos will be a AAA, I hope Jaramillo isn’t needed in the big leagues. Sorry Jason…
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Susdorf played 1B last night, hmm.
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