I’m short on time today, so just a few general thoughts for you, and you can use this as an avenue to discuss today’s games.
* I jinxed Lou Marson by devoting an entire section of the site to him. Clearly the baseball gods saw this and punished Lou. I’ve removed it, so I expect that after a brief waiting period, he will resume raking.
* Sabastian Valle, who doesn’t turn 18 for another month, already has 4 extra base hits in 2 games. Not bad eh? With Marson, Jaramillo, d’Arnaud and Valle, we have four prospects that could make a case for our top 30. Can anyone remember a time when our minor league system had better catching depth?
* After another poor outing for Josh Outman, my belief that he should have been left a starter and Carpenter converted to relief has only strengthened. Outman’s arm is too good to languish in the bullpen, and he hasn’t proven he can’t start. Carpenter, on the other hand, has fringy stuff, and seems like the type of guy who’s stuff would actually play up a tick as a reliever. Sure, he’s not lefthanded, but it doesn’t really matter at this point if Outman can’t get guys out either. Carpenter is back in Clearwater, and while he’s shown some positive results since coming off the DL, it really doesn’t tell us anything, as he did the same thing there last year. He needs to get back to Reading and prove he can get out AA hitters, or he needs to be converted to a reliever where he can help the big league club.
Any other random thoughts are welcome, sorry for the briefness of this. Happy Monday.
Phuture Phillies 
Add Naughton and Gosewich to the catcher mix, and I would be willing to bet our depth is probably better from top to bottom than most if not all other teams at the C!
Also, I think the Outman move was a little too hasty for me. I cannot remember a time in the past few months where not having a second lefty in the pen bit the phillies in the arse.
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I can’t either, especially considering Madson’s splits.
Also, if they want a lefty, they should really try swindle before they start converting all our good starting prospects.
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With respect to Outman, the frustrating thing is that his numbers are no better out of the pen then they are as a starter. It’s a move I could stomach if he were unhittable as a reliever and they could thus fast track him to Philly… but if he’s just as effective starting as he is relieving, then it’s a counterproductive move.
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The Lounacy will return.
The depth at catcher almost assures that if the Phillies make a move this year a catcher will be included in the package. Hopefully Jaramillo will keep hitting and keep his value up. If it was my choice on who to trade I would move them in this order (considering value of return vs. importance to the system/longterm club);
Jaramillo, d’Arnaud, Naugthon, Gosewich, Valle, Marson
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It was reported on Philaphans from another source that the Phillies are the frontrunners for LHRP Brian Fuentes and are using Fabio Castro as the main bait. He’s currently closing for Colorado, but is in the final year of his contract and they seem to like Corpas still.
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I never really saw anything in Castro. I would love if he was the key piece in a deal for Fuentes.
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If they could get a half season of Fuentas for Castro I would do that. Fuentas is pitching very well and Castro may be a little bit of a bullpen/starter tweener. Not enough pitches to be a great starter and not enough dominance against lefties to be a great back of the bullpen option. I suspect the Rockies would want more, however.
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Supposedly Garrett Atkins is available because he’s refused a long term deal. So, bring in Atkins and Fuentes. I’d be ok with trading prospects like Cardenas for a bat like Atkins, even if his H/A splits aren’t the prettiest. Atkins can also play 1B, which might be his long term spot if he can’t stay at 3B defensively. Plus, Utley can serve as the team spokesman there, since they are practically joined at the hip.
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Would love some Fuentes/Atkins.
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Great plan, But what would do you do with Feliz???
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If Outman struggles for the rest of the year in the pen, it would be awesome if they let him try his old delievery out to finish the year for a few appearances, just to see if it works… it will probably do wonders for his confidence, it really couldnt hurt anything but his trade value right?? by the end of the year if he hasnt improved enough for a promotion, why the heck not!
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Keep him. The Phillies roster is currently inefficient because of the presence of Condrey. Durbin and Madson are both being used for multiple innings. Condrey is surplus goods.
Your INF would be
Howard, Utley, Rollins, Atkins
Your OF would be
Burrell, Victorino, Werth
Reserves would be Bruntlett, Feliz, Dobbs, Jenkins. Dobbs can play OF, as well as 1B and 3B, Feliz becomes a late inning defensive replacement and occasional starter. Atkins has played 1B in the past, so if the need to give Howard a rest is there, then you can use Atkins at 1B and Feliz can start.
Also, this situation renders Taguchi useless, or at least more useless than he currently is. So I guess you can keep Condrey. Or you can add a player who has actual value.
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You lie and tell Feliz he’s been traded to Colarado too, then when he gets there and they tell him to beat it, we can all have great belly laughs cause garret atkins is playing third base now…..!
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Castro for Fuentes seems like a no brainer to me. Castro’s stuck in between relieving and starting at this point and has struggled to find his niche, while Fuentes can be an excellent lefty out of the pen for the rest of the year. Added bonus: two compensation picks when he goes.
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Can you get much more useless than Taguchi is right now? I think the line should be changed to “pulled a Taguchi”.
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“I jinxed Lou Marson by devoting an entire section of the site to him. Clearly the baseball gods saw this and punished Lou.”
I’m thinking maybe it wasn’t a jinx or the baseball gods…I’m seeing something fuzzy in my crystal ball when I consult it about Marson…but all I can make out is some acronym…tough to figure out…5 letters…begins with a “B” and ends with a “P”… 😉
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Your crystal ball is clearly broken.
Mine says he’s due for another hot streak.
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Anyone notice the vast improvement that Carrasco has been quietly making this season? His secondary numbers have taken a huge leap forward (namely K/BB ratio).
I saw the Fuentes for Castro mentioned in the NYPost and posted it at BL…I’d be very happy with it.
On Outman…I agree that they should have left him as a starter and he just might have been ready to fill a spot in the rotation right now.
Taguchi sucks monkey balls…DFA him now!!! They should cut him and bring up Donald as a utility IF as both Bruntlett and Dobbs can handle the OF.
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anybody else going to be watching Susdorf tonight? Obviously not from a big time program but for what a 5th round pick he’s doing well. Kinda like another 5th round pick from a couple years back, hmmmm.
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21st round.
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crap! i wasn’t even close. sorry, my bad. even more the case. this kids got some pop. Can’t wait to see him in Williamsport.
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I’d do Castro for Fuentes yesterday.
As far as Atkins trade Cardenas, Jaramillo, and Outman? Is that even enough? He is under team control through 2010. I would drop Taguchi and Condrey to make room and focus on Dobbs backing up at the OF corners and Werth being the ‘other’ person who can play CF.
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On Atkins: His offensive numbers are largely a creation of Coors Field. Here are his home/road splits:
2008:
Home: .355 avg, .392 obp, .952 ops, 5 HR
Road: .265 avg, .282 obp, .687 ops, 5 HR
2005-2007:
Home: .345 avg, .407 obp, .948 ops, 33 HR
Road: .270 avg, .346 obp, .792 ops, 34 HR
His 3 year splits are much better but his splits this year show him taking full advantage of his home ballpark to prop up his numbers. The sole upside is that his power numbers dont seem to be effected by going on the road which makes me think he has a lot of flyballs drop in in that HUGE outfield at Coors…something that definitely wouldn’t happen in our bandbox.
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I think his 3 year splits are much more relevant than his 2008 numbers. He’s struggled this year, but the difference between our park and Coors, in terms of stimulating offense, is probably negligible, and in fact, CBP is probably a better hitting environment than Coors.
He’s still young, I think he’d be a pretty productive hitter. I don’t know what it would take to get him though. They surely won’t give him away.
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I think Coors with its huge outfield is a better hitting environment than CBP…both lend themselves to HRs but hits in general Coors has us beat…I’m pretty sure the stadium numbers support this.
Last year:
Coors: 1.067, strong hitters park
CBP: 1.021, slight hitters park
Per Baseball Prospectus
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When a guy doesn’t strike out alot and has a 340 BA of course he is going to have a high BABIP.
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“When a guy doesn’t strike out alot and has a 340 BA of course he is going to have a high BABIP.”
Almost Steve, but I think you meant that to say:
“When a guy doesn’t strike out that much and has a *ridiculously high and historically unsustainable* BABIP he is going to hit 340.”
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padraic, I think you may be relying a bit too much on your argument and looking at it in a career perspective. The highest career BABIP number is Ty Cobb, who had a career mark of .378. But there have been plenty of cases of a guy putting up a freakishly high BABIP in a single season. So while its highly unlikely Marson will finish with a .440 BABIP this year, its also not that crazy to think he could post a career BABIP of, say, .330. Ichiro’s career BABIP is .352, well above average, and that may be because of his speed. But there are too many variables to even guess as to what Marson could do over the course of his career.
Right now, he’s getting lucky to an extent, because hes hitting for a high average while not hitting for much power. But the power is coming. I’m pretty sure of that. When the power does emerge, I suspect its going to help his overall line. Right now people are trying to discredit his prospect status because hes “getting lucky”, but thats not the case. He’s an above average defender, he’s a good athlete for a catcher, he has a good line drive swing, and he has a very good eye at the plate. The .350 average is fun to talk about. But at the end of the day, his place on prospect lists will be merited because of his defense, and because hes already shown an an above average batting eye at a young age. When the power arrives, he’s going to be considered an elite prospect.
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padraic
enough of this madness. just to shut you up on this whole “marson is only lucky and due for a huge crash” binge that you are on, i did some research BABIP. To clarify for everyone BABIP = (H-HR)/ (AB – SO – HR + SF), so anyone with a low hr to hit percentage and a high batting average is going to have a high babip. Add in a high k rate, and the babip only goes up. as such, your barry bonds example is a horrible one, since he has a very high % of hr to hits. i would have though that a guru on babip would have known better than to give barry as an example. a better example is joe maur as we all agree that he resembles the kind of hitter that marson is albeit at different levels currently (i.e. a contact hitter, not a hr hitter, but doesn’t strike out a lot). this year, maur has a babip of .350. in his good year of 2006, he had a babip of .364. if you give maur the same k% and hr% as marson this year, all else equal, maur’s babip goes to .418 in 2006 and .396 this year. so while Marson’s babip of .412 is high, there is no justification to arbitrarily drop him 80 basis points to “normalize” his stats. You have to keep in mind that marson has a reasonably high k rate 20% and low hr rate 1%. To repeat, the higher the k rate, the higher the babip. the lower the hr rate, the higher the babip. Will marson’s babip come down? Probably, but only if his batting average does so too. so he is not lucky…he is just flat out raking!
now please move off of this point.
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Here is a quick comparison between Marson’s season (337 BA) and Hall-of-Famer Tony Gwynn (career 338 BA), quite likely the best pure hitter who has played in the era where we have BABIP data.
Marson 2008 BABIP: 412
Gwynn career BABIP: 341
In an earlier post, I set the max “true” BABIP at 330, so maybe that was a bit low, but there is no way Marson’s numbers go any direction but down, even if he hits like Gwynn.
I am still very high on the kid, but he’s still behind Cardenas and Carrasco.
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You continue to obsess over career BABIP. Marson’s BABIP the last few seasons
.301, .307, .346
He sustained a .346 BABIP for an entire season last year. His batting eye has improved over last season
11.8% BB to 18.1% BB.
I don’t really see a reason to believe he hasn’t improved as a hitter. Sure, there is luck involved. But his 2008 isn’t a fluke in terms of the plate discipline, and his “batting average” isn’t the reason people are excited about him as a prospect. As I mentioned before, when the power comes, his overall line is going to look even better. You can continue to think he’s a fluke, you’re more than welcomed to an opinion, even if its a contrarian opinion.
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PP fan, you seem to think that BABIP data is an artifact of BA, when in fact it’s the other way around. There is much more fluxuation in batter BABIP than pitcher’s, but there are still endpoints (or any non speed player), and I think the high end for Marson is still around 330-340. I can’t find anyone who wasn’t either a) fast or b) a simply great hitter who goes above that.
And I certainly agree with phuturephillies about the power. When, or if it comes, I will reevaluate my position, but for now, I see a very disciplined solid hitter who is being overvalued because of some fluky singles rolling under the glove of the shortstop.
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“You can continue to think he’s a fluke”
Sorry, I’ll stop posting on this, but I do want to be clear: I do not think he is a fluke! I think he is the third best prospect in the organization, a definite bet to be a solid major league player, and a player who has made great strides this season.
My point is that he hasn’t become the second coming of Joe Mauer or McCann or even Saltalamachia yet. I think the anger from PP fan is coming out of a misunderstanding of my level of criticism. There is room between “the next Joe Mauer” and “fluke.”
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padraic – i don’t know if you simply don’t understand what you are talking about, or simply refuse to listen. so i am going to be blunt. Tony Gwynn is another horrible, self serving example that misses the point.
take marson’s hr% and k% and apply to gwynn’s career stats and gwynn has a .409 carreer BABIP.
the difference is that gwnn has a 5% k rate and marson a 20% k rate. gwynn also has a higher hr rate. both of which explain the higher babip.
do the friggin math if you want to talk. but more importantly, move off the point. it is just one friggin stat.
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The thing is, his value is so high because of his defensive position. There are so few catchers in baseball who are both solid defensively and offensively. McCann is a great hitter, but not a great defender. Mauer is a great hitter, but isn’t great defensively. If Marson can handle a pitching staff, throw out runners, and put up a .280/.380/.430 line, that’s hugely valuable. And at this point, I don’t think a projection like that is out of line. The ISO is high, because his power hasn’t fully developed yet, but if it does, that line above is more than just a solid hitter, thats an All Star, when you consider the defense.
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Lets keep it calm here guys. There’s plenty of room for a variety of opinions.
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i am actually smiling. not upset at all. just wanted to fire off a heated post because i do think that he is obsessing and simply wrong because he doesn’t understand how the math works.
but i do agree that padriac is missing the point as you note. he is a great prospect for many reasons. to look at one stat and say he is over rated and due for a fall is silly.
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PP fan, the reason I’m not moving off the point is likely the same reason you are: I disagree!
I am doing the math, and your comparison of Gwynn and Marson’s k-rate makes my point perfectly. The only way you can strike out 20% of the time, not hit HR, and hit 340, is with a lot of luck!
If you re-read your analysis, you’ll see that what you are saying is basically: if Tony Gwynn had a worse HR rate and worse k rate (i.e, if he were an inferior player!), he would have to have a ridiculously high BABIP to hit 340. But he wasn’t that player, because he hit for some pop and hardly ever struck out! The fact that he is different from Marson is my point. And the fact that he hit 340 for his career, and that Marson is hitting 340 now, *despite more ks and fewer HRs* proves that Marson is either a) doing something historically extraordinary or b) getting lucky.
As for everything phuture says about defense and pop I agree completely: he can be a very valuable player.
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Incidentally, the numbers on Mauer are the same. The core of the argument above is: if Mauer k’d more often and hit HR less (again, if he were an inferior player!) he would have to do something extraordinary (high BABIP) to equal Marson.
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Hewitt, Pettibone, May, Shreve, Coy, Weber, and Susdorf.
7 Draft Picks, then the flyers at the bottom down in willnotsignland.
This is shaping up to be an excellent draft, here is hoping
it turns out to be filled with excellent signings.
I am really excited about this draft as a whole.
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you simply don’t get it. please do the math.
less hr doesn’t mean inferior. it means less power. marson has a higher double rate than tony gwynn had, while a lower hr rate. that means that marson hasn’t developed his power fully yet, not that he is inferior. further, swapping doubles for home runs dramatically improves your babip as doubles stay in the equation and hr are taken out. this is math and is not debatable.
now on to the k rate. do you know that marson has a walk rate that is 2.6 times that of tony gwynn – 22% to 8.5%. which means that as amazing as gwynn was, he was not even close to as selective as marson. which means that he has a higher ab/plate appearance ratio, which increases the denominator on the babip stat, i.e. lowers the stat.
now, if you want to argue that marson is not a great prospect because he doesn’t have power and strikes out 20% of his at bats, then make that argument. but if you want to rely on ONE statistic to show that marson is over rated and due for a fall, then pick another stat, because you are simply wrong here.
but again, to james’s point, the obsession on babip misses the bigger point. that he is a great prospect becuase he has a 22% walk rate and a high batting average and also plays great defense from the catcher position. a very rare thing to find.
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put another way. if tony gwynn had the same walk rate as marson, everything else equal to gwynn’s old stats, his babip would have been .399
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Get a room.
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Was listening to the game yesterday and I thought Marson had hit one out to left based on the play by play but it hit off the base of the wall for a double. He has homers to center and right so far. His ability to hit the ball to all fields will be a key attribute when he hits at Citizens Bandbox Park. Never forget watching Lieby play for Reading back in the day and his whole 2A season he went yard only twice. Then he had no trouble taking it deep at the Vet. Marson’s already equalled Lieby’s AA number.
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PP fan, we probably should just let Sweey Lou get on with his season. If he hits 340, I’ll buy you a beer and admit that your math kicks my math’s ass.
But based on this I doubt it:
“swapping doubles for home runs dramatically improves your babip as doubles stay in the equation and hr are taken out. this is math and is not debatable.”
Sorry, but this is *highly* debatable!!! In fact, you’re just incorrect to say that swapping doubles for HR “improves” BABIP.
Here’s why:
Let’s say Joe M has 10 ABs and 3 hits, of which 2 are doubles and 1 is a HR.
His average is 300 and his BABIP (assuming no Ks) is 222 (2/9).
Now, lets do as you said and swap doubles for HR, so that Joe M now has 10 ABs, 3 hits, of which *all three* are HR.
His average is still 300, but his BABIP *falls* to 000 (0/7).
I’m perfectly happy to debate Marson’s worth as a prospect with you, but forgive me if I don’t shut up because of what your math says.
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but maybe there was a mis statement here around the word “swapping”. in the context of my point, i said hitting less hr and more doubles improves babip which is shown in your math.
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Oh, I see, I did misunderstand that point. I thought you were saying that as Marson’s doubles turned into homers, his BABIP would increase.
Anyway, beer’s still on me if he hits 340.
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Hi im new here love the site…I was wondering if anyone had talked about Lou Marson and his Bapip..thanks in advance
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EZ-E gets bonus points for causing me to legitimately LOL at that post
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Okay, okay. I heard enough about BABIP. Marson is somewhere between Johnny Bench and Phil Roof; Bob Boone and Marv Throneberry; Gary Carter and Sal Fasano.
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“now, if you want to argue that marson is not a great prospect because he doesn’t have power and strikes out 20% of his at bats…”
I think what’s getting lost in the discussion is that padraic isn’t arguing that Marson isn’t a great prospect.
“I am still very high on the kid, but he’s still behind Cardenas and Carrasco.”
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Caught the first 6 innings of the Reading game last night (Tivo), and 4 things I noticed.
1.) Harman hit a bomb to straight away center. I still consider him a strong prospect, and I wonder how much that 3 week vacation to the majors stunted his development this year.
2.) Everybody’s favorite topic of conversation took the first two pitches in his first at bat, then slapped an outside pitch to the fence for a double. If the RF for Harrisburg was better, he probably would have caught it, but still good to see power to the opposite field for a 21 catched in AA.
3.) Outman has a nice slider that he drops on the outside corner against lefties. The first one he threw hit the black.
4.) Durbin is C.R.A.P.
This is the first time I’ve seen them play this year (don’t know why MASN decided to, but I think each game in this series is being broadcast (channel 626 if you have DTV). I know its a very very small sample size but I came away impressed with Harman, Marson and Outman.
One other thing, for those of you pining for some Donald in the bigs…watching his at bats reminded me of watching Ruiz. Again, I know a small sample size. The broadcasters did say he’s struck out something like 28 times in the last 25 games.
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Props to Bellman for a Sally Fas reference.
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phuture maybe you can help me understand something,donald and cardenas they have hit at every level and if it was another team beside the phillies,donald would be at triple a and cardenas at double a .I read the scouting on donald and it says bat was not what they though in college,but all I have seen is a kid donald who hits two bombs in last game of spring in florida,and three hundred at every level yet people say he not a starting player in the mayors,well he won’t take j roll or utley job they are all stars but how about third or outfield spot,if felix is a starting third baseman in the mayors then donald has a good chance also the last 25 games he had a lot of strikeout well jroll stuck out and would fly out a lot in the beginning now he is a mvp.
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