I figured now might be a good time to take a quick look at my Top 30 and see how poorly my rankings look. No indepth analysis here, just brief snapshots
30. Freddy Galvis, SS (A-; .233/.290/.267)
Actually hitting better than I expected, I ranked him here based on his defensive reputation and athletic ability. Everyone knew the bat was going to take a while. He’s only 18 in a league where the average prospect is 20. Hit .320 in May after an awful .143 in April. Stock up at this point.
29. Alex Concepcion, RHP (A+; .1 IP,)
Ouch. He’s made only one appearance and has battled injuries all season. Not much else to say here, I don’t know the exact nature of his injuries or what the prognosis is. At 23 now, this could derail his development to a degree if he needs major surgery. Stock down.
28. Will Savage, RHP (AA; 8.2 IP 8.31 ERA)
Savage hasn’t pitched since mid May and is also on the DL. I liked him as a breakout reliever this year who would get tons of groundballs. He did in his short stint this season, but I have no idea as to his health right now, and like Concepcion, he needs to get a move on as a 23 year old. Stock down.
27. Tyson Brummett, RHP (A-/A+/2A: 89.2 IP, 2.91 ERA)
I was puzzled with starting him at Lakewood, as he was a college senior and is already 23. He pitched well at Lakewood, and after a rough start at Clearwater rebounded nicely. With Bastardo on the DL, he makes it to his 3rd level of the season, and it should really show us what we have. He’s shown excellent control but did allow 8 HR in 53 innings at Clearwater. Stock stays the same for now.
26. Scott Mitchinson, RHP (A-; 67.1 IP, 1.60 ERA….for the A’s)
Mitchinson was lost in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, and I was kind of pissed that happened. Sure he’s 23 and in Low A, and sure he’s not getting tons of groundballs, but he always had the potential, just couldn’t stay healthy. He went through a stretch of 25 scoreless innings last month, and looks like at least a decent prospect at this point.
25. Quintin Berry, OF (A+; .236/.334/.304)
Berry has been a disappointment this season. He’s still drawing walks (34 in 250 AB) and still stealing bases (22 for 29), but he’s not hitting at all, and still has no power to speak of. As a 23 year old in High A, I expected better. Stock down.
24. Antonio Bastardo, LHP (A+/AA; 77.0 IP, 2.34 ERA)
Bastardo took the world by storm in his domination of the FSL, and has been pretty solid in AA before coming down with minor arm soreness. He’s walking way too many guys in AA, but he’s been tough to hit and the strikeouts are still there. He’s not a groundball guy, and has allowed 5 HR in 46 innings at Reading. Stock up, but he’s still a reliever for me.
23. Travis Mattair, 3B (A-; .245/.311/.309)
Like Galvis, I expected Mattair to struggle with the bat, and struggle he did in April, posting a .195/.290/.220 line. He bounced back in May with a .292/.351/.382 line. So far the power isn’t there, and he still has a long way to go, but the athleticism is there, and with that you have to think the power and improved bat work will come. He’s holding his own as a raw teenager in the SAL, thats what you hope for. Stock slightly up.
22. Jacob Diekman, LHP (A-; 67.1 IP, 5.35 IP)
Diekman has been a relative disappointment. He went through a nice 5 start stretch at the beginning of the season, but has struggled over the last month or so. He’s walking too many guys and not striking out enough or generating a dominating groundball flyball ratio. He’s older (21) than the other tools guys here, though its evident he’s still kind of raw and has work to do. Stock down a bit.
21. Justin De Fratus, RHP (Has Not Pitched)
De Fratus is a personal fav of mine, and he’ll pitch this summer at Williamsport. I’m hoping he overshadows my Diekman call. Stock remains the same for now.
20. Travis d’Arnaud, C (Williamsport)
See above.
19. D’Arby Myers, OF (A-; .181/.232/.249)
Myers has been a disappointment this year, and I saw a bounceback coming, but maybe his debut was more of a lightning in a bottle type deal, and its apparent hes much further away than anyone could have thought. The one positive is the 9 for 10 in SB in limited chances. Stock down quite a bit.
18. Julian Sampson, RHP (A-; 52.2 IP, 5.13 ERA)
I’ve covered Sampson’s start in detail here, not much more to say. I’m impressed with what he’s done to this point and I think its going to get a lot better in the 2nd half of the season. Stock up.
17. Jason Jaramillo, C (3A; .260/.327/.355)
After a poor start in April (.193/.227/.277), JJ has turned it around to an extent, bringing his OB% up 100 points. The power still isn’t there, and while he looks like a backup at this point, he should have value to either the big league club in September as a 3rd catcher or as a trade chip. Stock stays the same, maybe down a tick.
16. Matt Spencer, OF (A+; .265/.330/.395)
I liked Spencer as a breakout guy, and was glad to see the Phillies challenged him by skipping him over Lakewood. He’s been a bit inconsistent at Clearwater, he’s flashed power and patience, but his overall numbers don’t look that impressive. The fact that he was double jumped has to be taken into consideration, and his defense is still an asset, with his plus arm. Stock stays the same for now.
15. Greg Golson, OF (AA; .299/.335/.450)
A year ago, I was ready to write Golson off, but he showed flashes last season and got off to a hot start this year. He’s (predictably) cooled off in the last month or so before getting hurt, hitting .132 with 12 K and only 1 BB in his last 10 games. Was that a function of the wrist injury? Either way, he’s shown more positive flashes this season than in any past year, so I’m slightly more optimistic. I know Greg reads blogs and has his feelings hurt when he reads negative stuff, so this should cheer you up Greg; Stock up.
14. Heitor Correa, RHP (Has not pitched)
I remain high on Correa, and it appears he is going to pitch in Williamsport at some point. The Phillies are being very cautious with his arm, which is a very good thing. I’ve read nothing about an injury, so I’m assuming him not being assigned yet this year is just another step toward keeping the mileage low on this prized arm. Stock remains the same.
13. JA Happ, LHP (3A; 88.0 IP, 3.98 ERA)
As is normally the case with Happ, its a mixed bag. On the positive side he’s remained healthy and has continued to strike out a batter per inning, but his control still leaves a bit to be desired, and he’s still susceptible to the long ball, allowing 11 HR already this year. The Phillies recently hinted that Carrasco is going to be the first pitcher called on, then Happ, which kind of gives you an indication of how the Phillies feel about him at this point. A good second half might change that. Stock remains the same, maybe down a tick.
12. Dominic Brown, OF [A-; .290/.365/.398]
Brown was a big breakout guy last year at Williamsport, and I expected more of the same this season. He’s played well for the most part, but the power still hasn’t developed as I had hoped. He did hit 4 HR in May, which is a positive sign and he’s swiping some bases. Stock up a tick.
11. Edgar Garcia, RHP (A+; 66.1 IP, 4.21 ERA)
Garcia, young for High A, has held his own this year. His ERA is skewed by one disasterous start (1.2 IP/6 ER), and if you remove that start he has a 3.50 ERA. He’s struggled a bit against lefties and he’s giving up lots of fly balls, but he continues to flash good control and he still has solid raw stuff. Stock remains the same for now.
10. Brad Harman, 2B (2A; .224/.296/.366)
Harman is a notoriously slow starter, and he’s followed suit this year. His numbers look somewhat odd this season, as he hit 4 HR in May but only hit .179. He’s up to .275 in June but has no HR. Last year he saw a surge in the 2nd half in both power and patience, and it will be interesting to see what he does this year as well. He’s already gotten a brief taste of the bigs, something not many on this list can say. For now, stock down, but I have a feeling he’ll end up near the Top 15 again next season.
09. Andrew Carpenter, RHP (AA/A+; 66.0 IP, 6.41 ERA)
Carpenter had a big season last year and impressed at Clearwater, but he was a “Rule of 30” violator, and after getting rocked at Reading, a brief DL stint, he finds himself back in Clearwater. His walk rate has suffered, he’s been HR prone, and he’s been very hittable. If he was ailing and is feeling better now, we’ll see what the second half holds. For now, stock down quite a bit.
08. Drew Naylor, RHP (A-; 87.1 IP, 2.89 ERA)
Naylor overmatched the SAL and was recently promoted to Clearwater, which should be a more reasonable test. He has only average fastball velo, but his curve is very good and his changeup is coming along. When he faces more advanced hitters, it should give us an idea of how his stuff is going to play. Stock holding for right now, slight up tick is likely.
07. Josh Outman, LHP (2A; 51.0 IP, 3.53 ERA)
As you know by now, the Phillies for some reason decided to turn Outman into a reliever, despite him continuing to make progress as a starter. They must see something I don’t, and we’ll have to wait and see how it works, but the early returns don’t seem that impressive. He still has plus velo from the left side and a good slider, its a shame that could be “wasted” in a 1 inning role. I generally downgrade reliever prospects anyway, so for now, stock down.
06. Jason Donald, SS (2A; .297/.396/.466)
I was a big Jason Donald believer, and he’s starting to convince others that his breakout last year was real. He was always a guy who seemed to not quite achieve what many thought he could, dating back to college, but it looks like he’s erasing those thoughts now. The walk rate remains the most impressive aspect of his breakout, and he is hitting for passable power. The next test; a move to 3B? Stock up a tick.
05. Lou Marson, C (2A; .348/.464/.443)
I was a big Marson believer, and thought a season ago after 2006 that he was a good candidate to take a step forward. He’s taken 3 steps forward this year, and at this point, it would take a decent argument to convince me he isn’t our best prospect. If he was putting up a line like this in A ball, I’d be less convinced, but he’s doing it at AA, at a young age, while continuing to handle the pitching staff. Lou has his face on the sidebar of this site…that should tell you all you need to know. Stock up as high as it can go.
04. Joe Savery, LHP (A+; 83.2 IP, 4.84 ERA)
Its been a season of mixed results for Savery, and the same issues that have plagued him in the past continue to trouble him. He’s walking too many guys (3.89/9) and giving up too many hits (105 in 83 innings), but he is getting lots of ground balls, and he is healthy….or is he? Kevin Goldstein intimates today that there might be a health concern here. I’m still not pressing the panic button, even if most of you want me to.
03. Kyle Drabek, RHP (Recovering from TJ)
Not much to say. I’m still a huge Drabek reliever, the surgery was successful, and the last I’d read, his recovery is going well. Because of the surge of guys behind him, he may dip a few spots, but its not because I like him less. Stock the same.
02. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (2A; 88.0 IP, 3.78 ERA)
People seem to be down on Carrasco, but I think its simply a case of expectations being a bit too high after his breakout 2006. He’s pitched this season as a 21 year old in AA, and he’s more than holding his own. The walk rate (3.27/9) could be a bit better, but he’s struck out 85 hitters, much improving his rate from last season. He’s much more effective against lefties because of his changeup, but righties are still hitting him hard, and he’ll need to tighten his curveball. When that piece of the puzzle clicks, you’re looking at a pretty damn good #3 SP, maybe even a bit more. Stock remains the same.
01. Adrian Cardenas, 2B (A+; .316/.390/.486)
Cardenas followed up a nice 2007 at Low A by raking from day 1 at Clearwater. He’s hitting for average and also for emerging power this season. Last year his XBH % was 27.9%, this year he’s at 32%, showing continued improvement. He could draw a few more walks, but he’s not striking out a ton, and he clearly can make consistent contact. His power numbers were helped by a May spike where he 10 extra base hits out of his 21 total hits, including 4 HR. While he’s not consistently showing the power yet, glimpses like his May run show what he’s capable of doing. He also has 4 triples and is a perfect 8 for 8 in stolen bases. He’s not a burner and likely won’t steal more than 5-6 bags a year in the majors, but it seems like he has solid base running instincts. His defensive position is the only thing left to figure out, the rest should just be a natural progression. Stock remains the same, maybe even up a bit.
A few guys that I definitely missed on
Michael Taylor, OF; We’ve covered this one plenty.
Sam Walls, RHP; He’s healthy again and pitching very well. Possible 8th inning reliever down the road
Pat Overholt, RHP; Has had ups and downs this year moving to the pen, but should at least be a solid middle reliever
Guess at my Top 5 heading into next year?
01. Sweet freaking Lou
02. Cardenas
03. Carrasco
04. Donald
05. Drabek
Savery is still a Top 10 guy for me, I’m not panicking unless we learn he has another serious arm injury.
Phuture Phillies 
Nice rundown, but it’s hard to see how Cardenas could lose the top spot after the season he is having.
I mentioned this on the post below, but Marson’s BABIP (440) has to be a check on some of the enthusiasm from his numbers. A lot of his offensive production is coming from BA, and that, as we know, is the most ephemeral of statistics. I still like him a lot, but I wouldn’t rate him more than a ‘B’ prospect at this point; Cardenas is close to an ‘A.’
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I’m gonna have to disagree with that. Yes, his BABIP is very high this season. But his plate discipline is very much for real, which is why his prospect stock is rising. He’s not going to hit .350 all season, and hes not a .350 hitter in the majors, but there’s no reason to just automatically assume his numbers are going to plummet or that this is flukish luck.
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Fair enough. I certainly respect your opinions on these things, but I think a 440 BABIP *is* a good reason to assume his numbers will plummet and that a good portion of his success has been due to luck.
If you normalize him to a .330 BABIP (which is still quite good), he drops to (quick calculation!) 270/396/370.
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Boy did Carpenter fall off of the radar since his Spring outing against the Yankees. Injuries will do that I guess….
If Burrell signs for two more years with the big club, does that put Cardenas in leftfield by 2011? I hope he’s not the chip in a mid season trade like most of the rumors being spread on the net are saying.
What’s Marson’s athletic ability like? I only saw him play once live and it was at Trenton last week. Can he make the jump to the bigs in 2009 on just his defense and batter’s eye alone?
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A catcher that can hit is the most useful position in baseball. I mean imagine if Coste was just a 10 yrs younger!
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I’m just gonna throw my midseason top 10 here and if anybody wants to argue about it, I’m all game for it:
1. Lounacy
2. Cardenas
3. Carrasco
4. Golson (assuming his drop off in production is from the wrist injury and that he’ll bounch back from it)
5. Donald
6. Naylor
7. Drabek
8. Taylor
9. Happ
10. Garcia
I’m not sure about putting Naylor and Taylor that high because I’m always leery of putting A- guys high on the prospect spectrum when they were old for the league, but when you have guys who are old for a league, you want them to dominate, and they both did. And Drabek is all projection at this point, but as long as the prognosis is good, he’s gotta stay high.
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i doubt if burrell would sign for only 2 years. as far as cardenas you dont just take an infielder and assume he can play the of. its a whole different animal. golson is much more likely to replace burrell if he,s not signed. as far as any deal for pitching think about who gillick is closest to. seattle, toronto, and houston. personally i would take bedard and his 100 pitches with our pen. in my opinion we certainly have enough to get nearly any pitcher.
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I think it’s 50/50 that Burrell re-signs. I think there’s a very good chance that Jayson Werth will be the every day leftfielder last year and may get some ABs in right. To be honest with you, I’m not sure that’s such a bad outcome. I think, over 140-150 games, Werth could put up some good numbers. It will also give Greg Dobbs and opportunity to get more at-bats. Dobbs can just flat-out hit. He’s been a good trouper sitting on the bench with a .350 average, but it’s not fair to him to let that go on forever. Yup, they’ll try to re-sign Burrell, but they won’t be a cent more than they think he’s worth. My guess is that they will try to re-new him at this year’s contract amount for another 2-3 years. If he refuses to sign on, it’s Sayonara, hello Jayson Werth and more compensatory picks. It’s all good.
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uh, that would be that Jayson Werth will be the every day leftfielder NEXT year.
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If Werth is the every day LF next year, we’re going to have problems as a team. But thats a discussion for another time.
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Per Jayson Stark from talking with teams:
“But those same clubs say the Phillies might have the hardest decisions to make of just about any team with win-the-World Series upside. If they go for it now — and decimate their still-thin system to deal for a big-name rent-a-pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett — this might be the only year they’d be capable of contending.
To make a trade like that, they’d probably have to give up both of their two most advanced starting-pitching prospects, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo.”
I know this is major league stuff and not minor league stuff, but the thing that caught my eye is that it’s Bastardo and not Happ being mentioned as the second most advanced starting-pitching prospect in the Phillies system. Apparently the Phillies aren’t the only team seeing Bastardo as a good starting pitching.
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IMO the biggest problem with having Werth as an every day leftfielder is that it will cause problems with the platoon in right. In other words, you would plug one hole and create another. However, having watched Werth for a while, I think he is on the verge of becoming a very productive every day player with a broad range of skills. Offensively, I don’t think he’d be a big drop off from Burrell and I think he’d be a better fielder and base runner. That having been said, are they better with the current outfield arrangement? I think the answer is yes, but, again, it’s as much about rightfield as anything else.
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“I know Greg reads blogs and has his feelings hurt when he reads negative stuff, so this should cheer you up Greg; Stock up.”
I’ve been particularly harsh on Golson. Fact is I wish him the very best and my criticism is nothing personal. Like many others, I wouldn’t be so tough on him if he didn’t have such amazing potential. Kind of like Larry Brown is to point guards I suppose.
Stay positive Greg! Keep working hard and stay focused on improving your game. In the end it doesn’t matter what anyone else says. You define who you are, no one else, and it goes way beyond the game of baseball.
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padraic – i honestly don’t get your comment. because someone has a high babip% you just say that isn’t real and drop him 110 points? is it possible that his slective eye is causing the pitchers to throw him good pitches and his “line drive approach” (as has been noted by scouts) is causing him to hit ropes which is resulting in a high babip? is that possible? or is it only possible that your silly made up math is the right way to look at it?
don’t come around these parts and knock down sweet frigging Lou and think that you won’t get an ear full…stick to the Met’s sites with that negativity
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i have been a noted golson fan for a while. debating james several times on this topic. i believe he will develop into a very good mlb player. he still has a lot to develop to be an mlb allstar, but his plus defense and plus speed can make him a dangerous weapon in center for the phils. and by all accounts his work ethic is off the charts, so i think that he will get there.
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“because someone has a high babip% you just say that isn’t real and drop him 110 points? is it possible that his slective eye is causing the pitchers to throw him good pitches and his “line drive approach” (as has been noted by scouts) is causing him to hit ropes which is resulting in a high babip? is that possible? or is it only possible that your silly made up math is the right way to look at it?”
PP: I’m new to the site, so I don’t want to start a a major argument, but, in short, the answers to your questions are : yes, no, no, and, ask Kevin Goldstein about “silly math.”
Barry Bonds, who I think we will all agree had a “selective eye” and was a pretty good hitter had a career BABIP of .285. Utley .320. Pujols .317. If you don’t believe me, go to baseball reference, click on the “splits” of any hitter you want, and you won’t find a single player with a career BABIP anywhere near .440.
I’m not trying to be negative, just offering my perspective on the prospects of Marson.
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As for Marson’s BABIP, it is a valid point to look at, but sustaining a higher than average BABIP isn’t all that uncommon. And this isn’t a hot month with a flukish BABIP, he’s consisntently raked for going on 3 months now. Do I expect this next year? Nope. But I think the power is coming, and the eye is there.
Quick tidbit on Lou. His GB/LD%’s aren’t radically different over the last 3 seasons, reason enough for me to be convinced its not just a fluke
GB%/LD%/Avg/BABIP
2006: 57% — 11% — .243 — .307
2007: 53% — 18% — .288 — .346
2008: 58% — 13% — .348 — .425
Those numbers come from Firstinning.com
An 18% line drive % might not be sustainable, but 13% is. His BABIP compared to Batting Average for 2008, by month
April: BABIP .400 – AVG .303 = (.097)
May: BABIP .467 – AVG .394 = (.073)
June: BABIP .371 – AVG .317 = (.054)
His “luckiest” month was April, if you consider the gap between batting average and BABIP. He had a 12% LD rate in April and hit .303, and then in May it spiked to 18% and he hit .394. This month, its dropped all the way down to 2%, and he’s still hitting .317. His walk % (18%) is a huge huge asset here, and the thing that makes me believe in his surge. He’s not a .350 hitter, but I don’t really see a reason to believe he’s not a .315 hitter at this point.
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Just to be clear, I do believe that Marson has made substantial gains, and that he may have even moved up to #3 on my own personal prospect list, but I still think it’s too early to start the comparison to Satly, McCann, Mauer, or other big name prospects from the last few years.
For him to hit .315 this year, he would still need a .400 BABIP with his other peripheral numbers. It’s not that I have anything against him, I just don’t think he is capable of doing something that no one else in the history of baseball has ever done. He is probably more like a “true” 270-280 hitter at this point, which is still very good for a 22 yo catcher at AA.
There also may be observational elements of his game that would lead one to believe he will develop more power, but my only point is that from a statistical perspective, his current numbers need to be understood in context.
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PP just gotta say you are the freakin man. i love this site.
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But what you’re talking about is a career number. Its fairly impossible to sustain a .350 BABIP for a career. But its not unheard of to post a season with a big time number, and its not uncommon to have slightly higher than normal BABIP numbers. Plus, most of this is coming without a whole lot of power. Power is the last tool to develop in a lot of cases, and Marson hasn’t even turned 22 yet, he’s played a half season at AA at age 21, at the most demanding defensive position on the field.
As I said a number of times when talking about Marson, he’s not going to hit .350 for an entire year (most likely), and he’s not a .350 career hitter. But he hit .288 last year, and hes been making yearly progressions in his development. Because he is a catcher, the development curve is slightly different, and hes ahead of the developmental curve. Salty hit a wall at AA the first time, Marson is having his best season at AA. He’s a special prospect at this point. No, he’s not Joe Mauer just yet, but there’s more than his batting average to be optimistic about at this point.
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D’Arby does not have the green light to steal bases like some of his other team mates. If he gets the same chances to play in a game as Brown I am sure his stats will be higher also. He plays one day out the next day in. They play an infielder in the outfield rather than letting D’Arby play, a lot of the times he comes in the 8th or 9 th and he gets 1AB when he does play, he gets taken out of the game early
and a lot of his hits are ruled errors lowering his average.
But that is his coaches choice. How can he play consistent and raise his stats under that condition? His playing time is not consistent, he is not given the green light to steal bases and there are a enormous amount of ruled errors the majority of the times he is at bat. None of this showes up in that .181
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Is it just me or does anyone else think that BABIP has at least as much to do with the 9 fielders as it does the hitter? I suppose you could argue that the impact of fielding averages out over time but I just don’t feel I gain a whole lot by looking at BABIP over SLG %.
I would even say it matters much more for a pitcher (BABIP against) than it does for a batter. If a pitcher is a slop baller, he may not get hit often, but when he does it gets hit hard. And it would be easier to assess the impact of fielders because you only have to look at your own team.
Not my favorite stat, that’s all.
Padraic, welcome aboard.
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Its not an exact science, but there is something to learn from it. Another big one is Line Drive %. On average, 75% of all “Line Drives” fall in for hits. So, you can posit that the higher your line drive rate is, the higher your BABIP will be. While not all line drives are the result of a perfect powerful swing, it is a somewhat decent indicator.
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as slightly more than a casual fan, and some one who is curious about such things…How long would it be before Ruiz has to start seriously worrying abuot the progress Marson is making? I know there is a huge difference between AA and big league pitching and defence, but there is no one in the phillies line up I would like to replace more than Ruiz.
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Do u think Garcia will be moved up anytime soon?
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i can see marson in the bigs at some point in 2009 provided he continues to progress smoothly. i could see jaramillo making ruiz expendable next year, as he provides a cheaper version of the defensive catcher to pair with coste’s bat in the platoon
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top ten 1 lou marson 2 jason donald 3 carrasco 4 bastardo 5 outman 6 golson 7 cardenas 8 naylor 9 taylor 10 brown.
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Enjoyed reading the Top 30 just our of curosity how do you come up with rankings? Is it stricky by stats, how much do you watch these guys play etc. I know its almost impossible to them all it would just help in my commenting on the list.
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James, do you have an age where a guy can no longer be a prospect? I saw a write-up from a scout in another organization (can’t remember his name). He said that a guy loses his prospect status at 25. I think that’s a little harsh but I wondered if you have a cutoff? If 25 was the cutoff, then this is Happ’s and Jaramillo’s last year. Swindle is the only other player in AAA who could have prospect status.
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The only thing that worries me about counting on Werth to play 140-150 games is that inevitably the past 1 1/2 seasons he’s wound up on the DL a few times. If the platoon in RF and CF continue, you need a guy who can be out there for 150+ games. Burrell is that guy whether it be for 2 or 3 years if he is willing.
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Bellman,
There isn’t really a hard number. But in general, you look at where a guy starts age wise, and then draw up the “guidelines”. This is my general principle.
Drafted out of HS
GCL: 18, SS: 19, A-: 20, A+: 21, AA: 22, AAA: 23
Drafted as a college junior
SS: 20, A-/A+: 21, AA: 22, AAA: 23
Drafted as a college senior
SS: 22, A+/AA: 23, AAA: 24
Free agent out of Latin America
GCL: 17/18, SS: 19, A-: 20, A+: 21, AA: 22, AAA: 23
It depends on the prospect. If a guy misses a season because of an injury, you have to bump him back. Drabek is 20 now, had he not gotten hurt last year, he’d have pitched the entire year in Low A at age 19, so he’d have been ahead of the curve. He turns 21 in December, and its likely he’ll start at Lakewood again next year, so he might be a year older than youd like at Low A, but he’s still developmentally on the right path.
I generally wait 2 years after a guy is drafted before determining whether he’s too old for a level. Chance Chapman is 24 and in Low A. Thats not good at all. But if he’s double jumped to Reading next year, he’ll compensate somewhat for that. After the age of 25, guys are basically treading water. Happ and Jaramillo probably have very little “development” left in their game, Jaramillo has a bit more because catchers are generally (note, generally) late bloomers.
At this point, Happ is getting to the stage where he’s “wasting bullets” in the minors.
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I’ve been away for a little but I wanted to say: good stuff as always, James. For what it’s worth, I completely agree that Marson has to be considered the top prospect in the system at this point — and I’m looking forward to seeing how BA and BP rate him at the close of the season.
Oh, and the Mitchinson thing ticked me off too, and while I know he’s still in Low A, it seems he’s finally healthy — and his numbers are phenomenal. You have to think the Phils dropped the ball on that one.
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This is a site that obviously attracts the statistically savvy or, at the very least, the statistically curious. So, in essence, we are all gloriously preaching to the choir. The discussion here is drastically different than the Phillies forum. However, taking a devil’s advocate approach, predicting how a baseball prospect will do in the future, is much like investing in stock. It’s an imperfect science, based on many imperfect variables. But, ala Moneyball and via the testimony of sabremetricians everywhere, it’s the best method we have. Or is it? My question is, has there been any WELL DONE studies that compare the predictive power of Moneyballers vs classic scouting vs a hybrid system?
Remember, string theorists love the beauty of their theory, but as the studied it, it involved into five different string theories as they studied it further, eventually there were 10^500 ( over a google ) theories. Yet they continued to love their theory despite it’s inability to be proven.
Are we too in love with the theory no matter what or does the Moneyball theory actually make predictions that consistantly prove superior to other systems?
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i think that moneyball theory is, in its essence a solid principle. it is culled from years of data, and billy beane continues to skillfully apply it at the major league level (with respect to trades and signings of guys with proven high minors and major league stats).
at the same time, the 2002 draft that billy beane creamed himself over was nothing special. it was more or less an armageddon of moneyball-type prospects, and blanton and swisher have been the only two guys to make it to the majors from that draft.
i think it proves that no matter how you evaluate your prospects, drafting in any sport is still an inexact science. there are so many things that come into play that is simply very hard to determine what someone will be 5 years down the road.
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“Are we too in love with the theory no matter what or does the Moneyball theory actually make predictions that consistantly prove superior to other systems?”
The Moneyball theory, broadly speaking, is simply that teams with low payrolls need to exploit inefficiencies in the marketplace of baseball talent on order to compete. This is, by definition, a better system.
If you mean OPS vs. “look good in jeans” then it depends on what all the other teams are doing – there is no true system. If every single team is operating like the A’s circa 2000, than there isn’t going to be much efficiency in pursuing high OBP guys and college pitchers (for example) because everyone will be doing that. Put simply, if everyone was doing what Beane did in 2000, Beane would likely be drafting toolsy OF in the 10th round because *that’s* where the inefficiency lay.
Any attempt to frame the book as limited to one dogma vs. another is a misunderstanding of the central thesis.
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Governator: Teahen also made the bigs from the 2002 draft, and Jared Burton is pitching well now in Cincy too.
Not a great draft from an upside potential, but I think most teams would take Swisher/Blanton/Teahen/Burton every year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?franch_ID=OAK&year_ID=2002&draft_type=junreg
Pretty amazing draft, and one we’ll probably never see again. Not one HS player until round 20.
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No, I mean statistical analysis vs a scout’s observation ( the cliched five tool position player, plus fastball pitcher etc etc ) as predictive tools. It should have NOTHING to do with what other teams are doing. A system, specifically a theory, MUST have predictive value. Stunningly, the best theories are often radical departures from existing dogma. But if the dogma is predictive, reliable, and testable then it continues to have value. The theory of relatively changed how people think of the universe, yet Newtonian theories in optics and mechanics remain valid on this planet.
So I ask again, as one evaluates prospects, is there a study that COMPARES sabremetrics to observation? We KNOW that sabremetrics is predictive. We KNOW that scouts and coaches can tell who will thrive later. We also KNOW that both systems are falible. What I am asking is, is there proof that one system is TRULY superior to the other or are people in baseball shifting their belief system without definitive proof that one system is superior to the other?
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Phuture Phil: because Im sure that you have nothing else in the world to do, you should add a “traded prospect progress” column.
that way us fans can continue to check in on Gio and Gavin and others, giving us even more ammunition to throw at our GM when he makes a trade.
(yes- half tongue in cheek).
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