Hot off the presses at BA, the Phillies appear to be one of the front runners for Adis Portillo, a Venezuelan ranked right behind highly touted Michel Inoa. BA says this
As the international signing period approaches on July 2, the biggest name among pitchers in Latin America after Michel Inoa is Adis Portillo.
Portillo, a 16-year-old righthander from Maricaibo, Venezuela, is a hard-thrower with a fastball that has ranged from 88-92 mph, touching 93. International scouts love Portillo’s size—a wiry 6-foot-3 frame—and arm strength, though his present control leaves something to be desired.
“I saw him and we liked him,” said one international scouting director. “He’s got a good arm and he’s a big kid with a great body and a good feel for a breaking ball.”
The Royals apparently have strong interest, but the Padres and Phillies appear to be the top contenders for Portillo, who has been linked to both teams in potential deals of at least $1.5 million. One international scout said Portillo has been asking for $2 million, although it’s questionable whether any team will meet that price.
“He’s sitting 90-93 with a nice changeup, but the breaking ball to me is very ordinary,” said one international scouting director. “In the bullpen the breaking ball is a 40 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but in competition it’s a 35. He’s got a good arm, but he has trouble in competition—he gets hammered and freaks out a little bit.”
There is some effort to his delivery, which may be an impediment for his control.
He has some issues, obviously, but 16 year olds that thrown 88-92 comfortably and have room for more don’t grow on trees. The Phillies spending $1.5M on this kid would be a HUGE, and I mean HUGE, deal for the organization.
Phuture Phillies 
I agree that it would be a huge commitment for the Phillies to spend that much money on a single pitching prospect. We typically are much more active in the $100K-$300K range which is where we got Carrasco. Part of me would rather the Phillies sign 5 second tier prospects instead of 1 top tier prospect, especially a pitching prospect. But any renewed sign of a larger financial commitment towards signing any amateur talent has got to be a good thing.
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***Part of me would rather the Phillies sign 5 second tier prospects instead of 1 top tier prospect***
are you on drugs or just beaten down from all of the years being a phillies fan? we need top end talent. not a bunch of fillers.
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“are you on drugs or just beaten down from all of the years being a phillies fan?”
Thanks. You just made me spit water all over my keyboard.
LOL
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LOL.
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His point is valid though. Signing 1 guy for $1.5M or 5 guys at $300K, you might be better off playing the numbers game. If our system was in the upper third of all teams and we had tons of depth, I’d say take the flier on the big time bonus, but if we’ve only got $1.5M to spend there, it may make sense to spread it. Then again, if this our statement, the “Hey, we’re going to be big players in Latin America again”, then I’m fine with it.
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well…if you understand statistics and you believe that the phillies scouts can properly handicap a player and you understand that there is a finite number of positions available in a baseball diamond, then he has a horrible point.
but maybe no one here believes that a phillies scout can properly handicap a player. in that case, i would rather have 15 $100k players, or maybe 150 $10k players
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It may be debatable but I still passed water through my nose.
I’m for going after top talent after just drafting so many players.
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The odds are also in favor of any $1.5 million dollar 16-year-old blowing out his arm by the time he is 22 years old and ready for the majors. If we spend big money on 16-year-olds I would much rather spend it on position players.
We spent $2 million dollars on 2 Korean pitchers remember. Of course we also spent $700K on C-Rod, though he at least had some raw talent.
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I do agree the smart money is on taking more arms at a lower price and spending the big bucks on the bats.
Then again, I’m just happy they are spending the money (allegedly) again.
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**The odds are also in favor of any $1.5 million dollar 16-year-old blowing out his arm by the time he is 22 years old and ready for the majors.**
actually, the odds are not in favor of this happening. the odds are highly against this happening. with all due respect andyb, your point is moot. all of this is taken into account when you use probabilities. there is a probability of this kid blowing out his arm and a probability of this kid being the next pedro. all of that is factored in to yield a scouting value.
and your korean player examples do not hold either. they didn’t make it because they sucked. bad scouting. not blown out arm.
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“I do agree the smart money is on taking more arms at a lower price and spending the big bucks on the bats.”
Why is that? Injury risk?
I’m only asking because you have agreed in the past that good hitting is easier to acquire at the ML level than pitching. Doesn’t this mean you need to concentrate on drafting and developing pitchers?
Also, is is painfully clear that the Phillies are much better at developing hitters than pitchers, which means they are more dependent on pure talent on the mound as opposed to development.
The other issue is when you draft a position player, you have less flexibility on where to put them on the ML roster. Position players play 1-4 positions at the most, whereas there are 5 starters and 6 or 7 bullpen spots, so you’d be less likely to have a logjam blocking a prospect. Cardenas and Donald come to mind.
Not to mention that in general the starting pitcher has the single greatest impact on the outcome of a game. No position is more important.
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This kind of thing is really refreshing to hear. Obviously the draft is the safest way to get some top talent, but the fact that you can sign these guys from all over the world that could have just as good an impact as a 1st-5th rounder is really exciting. Not to mention the fact that the Phillies are finally appearing to be ready to open the wallet for some of the phenoms that are making headlines.
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How does this guy compare to Felix Hernandez at the same age?
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Back in Feb 2004, this was the report on Felix Hernandez, as an 17 year old who had just made his US debut
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in short…he doesn’t compare at all to the King, so let’s lower expectations.
great get james. not sure where you dug that up.
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I see that Williamsport and the Gulf Coast Rookie league has started. I was looking through the box scores and came across a young catcher (only 17 I believe) by the name of Sebastian Valle and was wondering what’s the story on him. If you would be so kind to give me an update on him in the comments section of my blog (http://pabaseball.blogspot), I would greatly appreciate it.
Thanks
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I can’t recall the Phillies ever going for a Latin American prospect commanding this kind of bonus. The biggest bonuses they have given out in Latin America were to Josue Perez and Carlos Rodriguez both in the 750K range. Edgar Garcia was 500K I think. Carrasco was 300K. Welinson Baez was 225. Carlos Valenzuela was 200K
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16 year old with a “good feel for the breaking ball”? Sounds like a Tommy John surgery just waiting to happen. Might as well get it over with and make his appointment as soon as he signs that contract.
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Some of the negativity here of late is astounding to me.
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Sometimes you gotta double down…perhaps this is one of those times…I hope they are able to sign him.
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PP Fan – I think that you would find at least 50% of 16-year-old signees having some kind of arm issue by the time they are 22 and ready for the majors. The younger you sign a kid, the more you are projecting and the more chance of some sort of injury. I know Baseball America has done some studies on HS versus college pitchers that show that the HS pitchers are more risky because of the injury factor. That does not mean they don’t often have higher ceilings. Just the further these kids are away from the majors, the larger chance there is for something to happen to them. It does not even have to be an injury. Some of them become less flexible as they get older and their velocity takes a subsequent hit when they fill out. The 92 mph fastball on a 16-year-old may become an 89 mph fastball on a 22-year-old. Look at how a Zack Segovia or even a Carpenter gets hurt or gets out of shape and suddenly becomes a lesser prospect.
Risk can then be quantified with bonus dollars. The scale of bonuses in Latin America is logarithmic at the high end. There is lots of competition over the top 10-15 prospects which tend to cost more than $1 million to sign. The next 30 prospects are in the middle range and cost a fraction of that to sign. While more of the top prospects tend to succeed, it is not triple or quadruple the rate. There is more prospect value in the middle range when the risk assessment is applied.
With injuries being such a factor with young pitchers, the odds are in favor of the team that signs more players with potential. That is why I love when the Phillies sign multiple HS picks with later choices (this year was a little aggressive with high choices). But you draft enough Dominic Browns and some of them will turn out well. That is why I would love the team signing 5-10 young pitchers with projection.
Now, with all that being said, if the Phillies are going to increase their International signing budget to compete for high priced talent they should. I still shy away from competing with the Yankees and Red Sox for the top tier of talent, however, as I still think there is better value in the middle tier (where signing bonuses are 300-500K rather than the 100K they used to be. Yesterday’s pitcher in GCL, Reginal Simon, probably cost the Phillies less than $100K to sign and he is likely one of our top 30 prospects. He is a great example of the benefits of signing lots of young, projectible arms and hoping they develop while teaching them how to pitch.
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BAXTER: ease up on the harshness. Im sure there’s some ratio on pitchers ending up with TJ surgery but i dont know it.
and to be honest, my 1st assumption is that this kid, NOT going the AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL/LEGION/ALL STAR route OR the COLLEGE (RICE UNIV- im looking at YOU!).
If the PHILS get him under contract this young, they can control his innings (read the above article on KING FELIX) & ya gotta think it would lessen his TJ or maybe any other ARM BLOW-OUT chances. (RULE OF 30 im looking at you)
Drabek was a TEXAS high school stand-out who from what i read was used incredible amounts during his high school years (Phuture Phil would know this more than me)
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I can only take this total speculation in a positive way. I can’t say the PHILS are wrong for the aggressiveness if I kill them for not signing top FA’s or going OVER-SLOT for that key draft pick (damn Brandon Workman)
I am optimistic on the apparent (maybe it’s just me) acceleration and increase in $$$$ the team is paying both draft picks and now to these INT’L prospects….
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Good stuff andy, and I agree.
I’m going to try and find bonus numbers for Phillies Latin American signings over the last few years. I think Galvis was in the 300K range too, wasn’t he?
And the thing is, these guys, just like high school and college kids, carry lots of projection and risk. Jose Tabata was dubbed the next big thing 2 years ago, and his stock is way down now, as scouts are starting to question his swing and his maturity/approach to the game. You just don’t know. Because of that, you need to adopt two approaches;
1. Spend lots of money overall, taking a mix of the expensive guys and the lower priced guys
2. Spend the sum you were expecting to spend on one guy ($1.5M) and spread it across 3 or 4 guys in the second tier.
I’m fine with either approach, but for a system that hasn’t reached the top 3rd of all MLB systems yet, approach 2 seems like a better bet. Heck, Felix Hernandez only cost the Mariners $710K. The biggest thing is having good scouts you trust, not just throwing money around because of the name. I think we still have to rebuild our credibility in Latin America, and showing a willingness to spend money, whether it be on one blue chip top tier guy or 3 second tier guys would be a good step in the right direction.
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Josue Perez doesn’t really count, since he was a Dodger signing and we gave him a second bonus when the contract ruled invalid. More should have been known about him and he should have been more developed than your typical signee, since already played in Dodgers system. CRod also in that $ category and a valid first signing. $1.5 mill today probably equivalent of the $750K back then. For high priced international signings, nothing beats the Korean signings that were apparently done strictly on Takagawa’s sayso and his first signings and complete busts. $1.2 mill back then was a ton of loot.
I don’t see signing a Latin American 16-year old for that bonus as an outsized risk. Less mileage on the arm and more control of development than for an American HS kid. I’d say about the same risk and cost as Hewitt or Drabek or Hamels or Golson. All those guys had either extreme projection, injury, or makeup risks. If I had to choose, I’d bet on the 16-year old over Hewitt as the risk likeliest to yield a positive result.
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I think the risk/reward is like saying would you rather have a first round pick in the draft or 6 4th rounders.
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allentown – I would say that the Latin American signings are somewhat riskier than the HS signings for equivalent talent levels. They are a little younger and there are significant cultural adjustments that they face compared to HS signings. That makes them riskier for the same general level of talent.
The other misnomer is saying that 1 1st round pick is equivalent to 6 4th round picks. If a high school player is not good enough to get a top two round bonus, he often goes to college. These Dominican and Venezuelan kids rarely have that option. That means the pool of talent in the supposed 4th round is much, much deeper. If college did not exist or draft rules were such that major league teams retained a high school players’ draft rights through college (as they do in the NHL), then I think lots of teams would rather sign the 6 4th round picks than risk all their money on one 1st round pick.
There is so much more unknown about the Latin American player because we often have not seen them in competition as much as the high school player. While I grant that less mileage on the arm is a good thing, it is really a minor factor considering all the other risk factors.
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If he’s 16 years old with “a good feel for the breaking ball”, he’s probably thrown far too many breaking pitches at too young an age. The skyrocketing rates of teenage pitchers getting Tommy John surgeries is been largely due to them throwing curveballs before their arm is fully developed. There was an HBO special about this last year.
You don’t necessarily want a 16 year old to have a “good feel for the breaking ball”. Doctors recommend young pitchers not to throw curveballs until they’re 16 or even 18 years old. If this kid has thrown a curveball for years, he’s at a much higher risk of developing tendonitis. Look at Kyle Drabek, Joe Savery, Colby Schreve and even Mathieson. Cole Hamels didn’t throw a lot of breaking balls for a while, to avoid injury.
I’d take an MRI of this kid’s elbow before making a huge investment in him. A TJ surgery isn’t a big a deal as it once was, so some tenderness isn’t a deal breaker. I’m saying “make an appointment when he signs the contract” to get it over with. They virtually did the same thing with Kyle Drabek.
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The number of breaking balls probably isn’t important. With clean mechanics and a smooth delivery, theres no real evidence to suggest that throwing breaking balls is bad. The problem is, 16 year old kids probably don’t have super clean mechanics. I’m sure that they will check him out physically before signing him.
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The limit I read is 10 breaking balls per outting is a safe number over the age of 16…they can start learning it as early as 14 with no major consequences but shouldn’t use it at gamespeed until around 16. That way they at least have a feel for throwing it without the extra stress it puts on the elbow.
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Not sure you can’t sign 6 4th round HS kids from US if you want to. Guys like Sampson, Mathieson, Jiwan James, Gose, D’Arby Myers, Dominic Brown, stretching to include guys like Knapp, just about any of the Puerto Rican or JC players. A lot of them seem to be there in every draft, if you’re willing to give them about a $300K bonus.
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no one seemed to complain when we gave savery more than $1.5 mil. that was a guy who was throwing high 80s/low 90s as a 22 year old. a guy already with a history of arm troubles. a guy that was still struggling with command and secondary pitches following his recovery from surgery. that was called a good risk/reward.
but signing a 16 year old that throws the same velo and no injury history isn’t a good risk/reward? i don’t get it. you guys are just beaten down from years of low investment minor leagues and have low expextations. if the yankees/sox did this, you would say, here they go again.
andyb – i challenge you to prove your statement that “at least 50% of 16-year-old signees having some kind of arm issue by the time they are 22.” No way this is accurate. these teams wouldn’t be lining up to give kids this much money if there was that high of a percentage of health concerns. here’s how i know you are wrong. take a look at any year’s draft and prove to me that 50% of the high schoolers had arm issues by age 22. you are way, way, way off base here. further, signing him at 16 means that we controll his pitch count between 16 and 18, so the analogy to a HS pitcher holds.
if you are running a team, you can’t let fear of failing, fear of getting the 4 of 5 not the 1 of 5 dictate how you invest.
andyb i also disagree with this statement **The other misnomer is saying that 1 1st round pick is equivalent to 6 4th round picks. If a high school player is not good enough to get a top two round bonus, he often goes to college. **
first, if you look at any mlb all star game, first round picks are by far the highest percentage of players. second, most top 10 picks sign, including high schoolers.
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The curveball issue-I coached a 12 year old williamsport affiliated team to the Nj finals..I never allowed any of my players to throw a single curveball…It most likely cost us to have a chance at advancing deep..But what i had seen in the semis and quarters made me nearly puke…Teams were having 11 & 12 year olds throwing upwards of 150 pitches with 70% of them being curveballs…these are now all of the HS and College pitching stars that are being drafted but nothing is being said about their overruse of the curveball, however the 16 year old who probably had 20% of the innings these us kids throw throughout little league and HS, is dangerous?give me the latin american kid, and let me control his innings at 16 anyday of the week
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allentown – the point was that the HS draft pool is severly thin after the first few rounds. All those flier picks in the 30-50 range would make the top of the draft much deeper if they all signed immediately.
Ppfan – there are many studies out there that show HS drafts are riskier than college drafts on average (behind the subscriber walls at BA or BP). Here is one such article:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html
42% of HS players do not make the majors versus 27% for college in round 1. The percentages are 63% versus 37% in round 2. HS players have a higher star and good player percentage, but are more likely to be flops. I need to find the HS pitcher specific breakdown, but the failure rate there is higher than that of hitters for each round.
If International players are 2 years younger there is more time for things to go wrong. Conversely, there is more chance that second tier prospects succeed because there is so much projection involved.
I have not had time to go through the All Star rosters, but about 1/3 of recent rosters are International and the vast majority of those International players were not million dollar bonus players (think of someone like David Ortiz). You are right that 1st round picks make it at the highest rate, but they also cost the most.
I am sure someone has compiled the percentage of arm injuries, but 50% over 6 years should not be shockingly high. Look at the Phillies top propect lists and count who had surgery at some point between age 16 and 22. Not a big sample, but it is also not atypical (Savery, Drabek, Mathieson, Happ, Bastardo now) have all had arm issues. Carrasco is the exception.
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I feel like I should edit “Carrasco” and “arm injury” out of the same paragraph. Shame on you Andy, 🙂
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My bad. Won’t happen again.
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haha, its all good.
I’m not particularly worried about Carrasco at this point. His innings have been managed reasonably well, and he’s been very durable. He has very smooth mechanics and doesn’t have a lot of wasted motion, so he doesn’t seem particularly risky going forward. Of course, the standard caveat applied to all pitchers applies, and hes still just 21, so he has to be monitored closely over the next few seasons.
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EZ E I was one of those young pitchers but I threw nothing but gas. I never had a pitch count. When I was 15 I was throwing mid 80s w/ elbow pain and total loss of feel. At 16 I found out I’d need TJ to keep pitching. I always think back to when I was 12. My elbow nearly fell off during a game but I tried to work through it. After that I never threw the same.
My brother at 18 threw in the low 90s. He was clocked at 93. I was taller, more wiry with a wider frame. I never had the mental make up to be elite but it would be nice to consider how hard I could have thrown if there was a pitch count in little league. Thankfully that is the case now.
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A lot of talk of concern regarding this kid and throwing too many breaking balls because a scout is quoted saying ‘he has a good feel for a breaking ball’, when the next scout in the article says his breaking ball is very ordinary and he wouldn’t pay that kind of money for it. ‘good feel for a breaking ball’ is very phillies speak- i wouldn’t be surprised if that qoute came from them. Phillies mostly want size, projectability, some athleticism, reasonable mechanics, and the ability to spin a ball. It doesn’t mean his breaking ball is good at the moment, but that they think he’ll get better with one as he matures.
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As for the cash being spent on latin bonuses now- 1.5 million is first round draft pick cash. This kid will probably get that, but he sounds more like second round talent. Wise to stay away from the big bonus pitchers, but 1-1.5 thats not too bad. Though the million dollar bonus kids hardly ever seem to pan out based on incidental observation anyway.
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Ya phenix-im sorry to hear about your story…When i coached all my pitchers were on strict pitch counts we worked so hard on mechanice and location…we even had a physical therapist to properly stretch all pitchers before games…unfortunately i was the only coach i knew at the time that truly worried/and focused on those issues..Yes luckily today little league has a pitch count, unfortunately these elite teams are usually playing 3 or 4 tournys simultaneously and pitchers are still being overused…its a sad state that these things happen, and even sadder when its the kids own parent who is the coach allowing it…
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I should precursor- while the kid may be second round value now- what makes teams give so much is that he’s only 16- a kid that looks that good now projects pretty well to his age 18 US draft value. Thats why these kids get more then it seems their worth.
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I am all for signing young talent because these are the type of chips you need to make the big time trades when there is a potential FA on the market. Look at CC Sabathia and Matt Holliday this year. Either one would look good in a Phillies uniform however I do not think we have the quality of depth we need to make a push at either one of these 2. So if you can sign a highly touted prospect you do it.
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http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080701_High-end_Latin_prospects_not_in_Phillies__budget.html
1. Phillies won’t get Portillo.
2. Last year’s International Signing Budget in Bottom 5 of all of baseball.
3. This year’s budget increased from 900K to 1.4M (wow – how generous guys).
4. Thanks for Hagen and Conlin for calling the Phillies on this for the last two days.
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Hagen does get credit for listing the budget numbers on the Phillies, though the tone of the piece is very mixed. Half of it suggests that all these big bonuses are risky and potentially a waste of money. The number for last year is actually shockingly low. It is not as if we have spent big money in the draft the last couple of years as well. We have had a couple of nice mid-level signings like Julian Sampson, but other than that they have not really invested in a top pick and anyone significantly over slot in recent years.
Sometimes it is frustrating being a Phillies fan when you get the sense that good baseball people like Arbuckle and Agostinelli are not given the same resources that many of their competitors are. There is no reason that the Phillies should not at least be around the major league average in terms of international signing budget (that means $2.2 million this year). This does not mean they have to blow it on one player. Six guys signed for $200K-$400K might be like adding a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round picks to the system. It is nice that they have put money into quality complexes, but it won’t mean much without good raw talent.
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AndyB – i view this as a loss. I know we disagree on this point, but here is my logic:
1. first round talent is what wins in the majors.
– 32% of the 2007 all stars were 1st round picks. by far the highest percentage.
– International players signed at 16 years or younger was 2nd with 11%. (If you include International players signed at 18 or younger, that % is 15%).
– 2nd round players were 3rd with 9%.
– the rest of the players are so random where they are drafted that it is statisictically irrelevant.
– not convinced? how about the stars of tomorrow…of the top BA 15 prospects, 13 were first round picks, 1 was an international player signed at age 16 and 1 was a 5th round pick
2. given the finite number of players in a game and thus the finite number of at bats and pitches, it is better to acquire a handful of high ceiling players and hope 1-2 pan out per year than a dozen or so players of 2nd and 3rd round quality. it is very easy to add average players in mlb, but much more difficult to add top of the rotation pitchers or all star sluggers. this we all know given the phillies futile attempts to add pitching. if you can bring up 1 (or even 2) top talents a year that is much more valuable then picking from JA Happ, Carrasco or Bastardo.
as such, if you have a shot at selecting a first round talent it is by far more valuable then selecting 3 2nd round talents and 3 3rd round talents.
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PP Fan – I don’t know if your data supports your argument. It may…but how much did those 11% (or 15%) of All-Star International players sign for? Since a vast majority of these guys sign for a very low amount, doesn’t it make sense to spread the money around? The guys in the first round (aka US players) are heavily scouted by multiple sources and have a much more predictable background/future. The International player may have just burst onto the scene and could have been seen in very few settings, but still command top dollar. I’m a proponent of spending big on the commodity you know (US players) and spreading the wealth and hoping to get lucky with the commodity you don’t know as well.
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http://www.saberscouting.com/
This site is calling Portillo to the Padres. They rank him 4th among LA prospects this year.
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PPFan – I am not sure we disagree all that much. I get what you are saying about high end talent. I just think that with the way free agent bidding happens on the international market there is a skewed value at the top end. I still think the middle range of prospects has high end talent, it is just a little more projection with 16-year-olds.
What would be really interesting is a study of the percentage of International free agents that make it at various bonus levels. I would suspect that the percentage that make it is much smaller than the corresponding draft slot at the top million plus levels. But in the middle levels, the guys who get $100K-$200K, the success rate might be greater.
Free agent bidding skews the value equation. This is not that much different than saying that it was likely that the Thome free agent deal would backfire for the Phillies. Thome was overpaid based on the fact that he was available to the highest bidder (for limited draft choice compensation). Supply and demand are a little different on the International free agent market where there are more failures than successes percentage-wise.
All that being said, I think we can all agree that the Phillies need to put some real dollars into their International program or they risk the rest of the league passing them by.
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the A’s are the most statistically driven team in mlb. they run all of the numbers. know all of the probabilities. bean is no dummy. if he is bidding for a top priced guy it is because the probability is that buying this guy now will save him money in the long run based on a weighted probability of success.
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San Diego Padres announce the signing of Adis Portillo, Alvaro Aristy, Elvin Tavarez and Luis Domoromo (and Corey Adamson from Australia)
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So when do we find out who the Phils signed instead? The site Keni Styles linked above doesn’t have any Phils info as of yet.
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The one comment by the poster named “Liquid” who seems to have some inside info and might be a player agent sounds a bit disheartening:
“Liquid // Jul 2, 2008 at 2:37 am
I must say that the Reds get it while the Phillies don’t”
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yeah the reds have clearly dominated in the past 10 years
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this is just one more reason why I find it difficult being a Phillies fan. I hate this ownership and how cheap they are. not only that but they seem so old school in that they don’t think progressively.
just like that article said, they throw away all this money on bad FA moves and lose picks/prospects in the process, when all they would have to do is invest in Latin America more….just be aggressive. all this ownership cares about is the bottom line. so frustrating.
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