Encouraging signs from Julian Sampson

Other Stuff

I was very high on Julian Sampson coming into this season, ranking him #18 on my top 30 prospects list entering the season despite him only making one pro appearance prior to 2008. The Phillies got aggressive with Sampson, assigning him to Lakewood. I suspected he might struggle early on, as he was still a raw product out of the Pacific Northwest, but I figured he’d slowly turn the corner and adjust well once he got going. It looks like my suspicions may have been correct. Lets take a look at some splits

April: 23.1 IP — 7.33 ERA — 33 H — 13 BB — 12 K — 1 HR — 57% GB — 34% FB — 9% LD
May: 19.2 IP — 3.20 ERA — 21 H — 9 BB — 12 K — 0 HR — 66% GB — 23% FB — 11% LD
June: 9.2 IP — 3.72 ERA 10 H — 3 BB — 8 K — 0 HR — 56% GB — 15% GB — 30% LD

The groundball/flyball/line drive numbers come from minorleaguesplits, which is more detailed than minorleaguebaseball’s groundouts to air outs number. His line drive % is fluky high in June, and I suspect it will normalize. What is really impressive is how he’s righted the ship since a rough start. He has a 3.40 ERA sine May 1, allowing 31 H in 29.1 IP, striking out 21 and walking 12. That ratio might not be overly impressive, but he’s still learning how to pitch, and probably still has a ways to go with his changeup and breaking ball. The good groundball numbers indicate his fastball is quality, and he’s able to locate it down in the zone, which is also evident in only 1 HR allowed. Strikeout percentage and groundball percentage are the two most important indicators for me going forward. There is one area of concern of course

v LHB: .318/.412/.398 — 6.85 ERA — 20 K — 13 BB — 56% GB — 30% FB — 14% LD
v RHB: .273/.338/.364 — 3.86 ERA — 13 K — 12 BB — 63% GB — 25% FB — 13% LD

Lefties are hitting much better against him, even though he’s striking out more of them. I think this may indicate he’s using his changeup against lefties, and they are swinging through it, but when he hangs it in the zone, its being hit. His GB% is still fine against lefties, but they are clearly getting better swings off of him. All of this will require much watching in the second half of the season. To date, he’s thrown 52.2 innings in the first 2+ months of the season, so the Phillies aren’t pushing him, which is smart. Hopefully he’ll end the season in the 120 range, maybe even a few less, but he looks like he’s on track now, and it looks like his above slot bonus was money well spent.

21 thoughts on “Encouraging signs from Julian Sampson”

  1. His numbers are very encouraging since he was young and very, very inexperienced to start the season on a full-season team. He has more than held his own.

    Like

  2. agreed. encouraging.

    interesting note: sampsons numbers are better in A ball than workman’s in college. looks like they got the better of the two.

    Like

  3. Interesting note on Workman’s numbers, he had a teammate at Texas by the name of Chance Ruffin, Bruce’s son, who tore it up as a freshman. He wasn’t drafted at all last year.

    Like

  4. was just going to mention that out of the two (workman & sampson), I think Sampson was the right signing at this point…. I know some people like workman and think we missed out, but so far the numbers are encouraging and pointing to the right decision…

    Like

  7. 36th round. It appears they were never serious about signing him. Scouting report on him after last summer’s Cape Cod League, where he was ranked the 3rd best prospect

    Gibson was Missouri’s go-to reliever as a freshman, so it was no surprise he was able to handle Cape hitters despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the league. He finished second to Tigers and Commodores teammate Crow in ERA at 1.17, and established himself as a potential early first-round pick for 2009.

    Gibson was the most projectable pitcher on the Cape. At 6-foot-5, 180 pounds, he’s far from a finished product. He has an easy delivery and throws all three of his pitches on a steep, downhill plane. His fastball presently is more notable for its command than for its velocity (88-92 mph), and he mixes it well with a solid slider and changeup.

    “He has outstanding pitchability, and makeup off the charts,” Falmouth manager Jeff Trundy said. “He really knows how to pitch and go after hitters. And he’s still a rail. He’ll easily add 20-30 pounds and be throwing 95-96 in time.”

    His college stats

    FR: 67.2 IP — 4.12 ERA — 62 H — 19 BB — 77 K
    SO: 86.2 IP — 3.84 ERA — 86 H — 23 BB — 96 K

    I’m hoping he pitches on the Cape again this summer, I’ll be there for in 2 weeks and hope to catch a number of games.

    Like

  8. If Gibson wasn’t picked until the 36th round, that would seem to indicate that he was genuinely un-signable since every other team also passed up a chance to pursue him.

    Like

  9. it’s pretty cool lookin at your top 30 from last year and then checking how they are doing now. look’s like you were pretty on with a lot of guys especially naylor. where do u think mike taylor would rank now?

    Like

  10. Yeah I really whiffed on Taylor. The thing is, and this is something I should have taken int account, is the “Stanford Swing” is very real, and the effect it has on some players is very pronounced. Taylor is a physical specimen but really underperformed in college. He’s scrapped the swing they made him use, and he’s now mashing the ball. I’d like to wait until this season is over before making quick conclusions, but he looks like a Top 15 guy right now.

    Like

  11. I think everyone whiffed on Taylor, so don’t be too hard on yourself.

    Sampson’s performances have certainly been encouraging lately. If anyone’s gotten a chance to see him pitch, it’d be a huge help, as I’m sure it would confirm a lot of what you’re saying (i.e. big fastball, developing secondary pitches).

    Like

  12. I think I was Taylor’s biggest supporter last year, mainly because James said that his biggest problem is his swing and he was a top prospect out of HS. A 6’6 250 athletic specimen who can mash and run has to be a top prospect.

    Like

  13. Hey I had a question about Marson in the other thread, but not sure if it was too long ago, so forgive me if this is a bit off topic from this post…

    Is a September call-up likely for Marson? Also, is he ready to go or does he need more time in the minors after this season?

    Like

  14. ‘”If anyone’s gotten a chance to see him pitch, it’d be a huge help, as I’m sure it would confirm a lot of what you’re saying (i.e. big fastball, developing secondary pitches).”

    I have- his control is much more effective when he’s pitching at 92mph, but he’ll gun it up to 95-96. His curveball is nothing exciting at this point, but at times he’ll flash better spin that makes it at least average. His delivery is super smooth- you can see more to come.

    Like

  16. I really want to see Taylor in Clearwater or even Reading before I’m sold on him…He’s quickly becoming a legit prospect though.

    Like

  17. what is the stanford swing I never heard that term.did other players from that school have this swing ,and did it hurt them in the pro game

    Like

  18. When kids get to Stanford, the coach basically tries to get everyone to swing the bat with the same mechanics. Lots of kids have a hard time adjusting to the “new” swing, and I’ve seen it explained that the swing is very conducive to a metal bat. I remember reading that Taylor ditched his college approach/swing when turning pro and said he felt much more comfortable using his natural swing. It might help explain a freakish athlete like Taylor really struggling to break out in 3 years of college ball.

    Like

  21. the fish: thanks for that. There’s only so much I can surmise by sitting on my butt in front of my laptop, so little tidbits like that are invaluable to seeing the whole picture.

    Like

Comments are closed.