Just some random Monday notes…
* According to the Reading Eagle, Greg Golson has a wrist problem, and Antonio Bastardo has some shoulder inflammation. I wonder if the wrist injury might explain Golson’s recent run of bad form.
* Lou Marson’s stat line, as of right now; .356/.459/.454 How about the best stat lines for some of today’s elite catchers in their minor league career
Mauer, age 20 (A+/AA): .338/.396/.434
Martin, age 22 (AA): .311/.430/.423
McCann, age 20 (A+): .278/.332/.494
Martinez, age 23 (AA): .336/.413/.576
Sweet Lou’s OB% obliterates the competition, as does his batting average. Last Friday, during the BA Hotsheet Chat, Ben Badler made this comment about Marson;
Do you think Lou Marson is a true .353 hitter, or do you think there might be a bit of noise and good fortune in those numbers? I like Marson’s line-drive approach and his knowledge of the strike zone. So when Marson is back to hitting .280 (or maybe .260, his career minor league average) and slugging in the high 300s, how valuable is that? I think his power has the potential for some moderate growth, but 220 or so good PAs aren’t going to turn a guy into a star prospect. That’s not to say I don’t think he can be a big league regular… let’s just not get carried away.
While I understand the skepticism, to a degree, I think we’re past the point where you can call this fluky. Sure, Marson isn’t gonna hit .360 for the entire season, and he’s not a .350+ hitter, but the plate discipline is for real, as he’s shown that ability in prior seasons. The only thing left is the power, but power is often late to develop for catchers, and Marson still has some projection left in terms of growth, as he doesn’t turn 22 for another couple weeks.
* The Josh Outman reliever experience has been a mixed bag. His overall splits as a reliever v starter aren’t good
Starter: 25.2 IP — 3.16 ERA — 29 H — 15 BB — 32 K — .279 OPP BA — 0.87 GO to AO
Reliever: 25.1 IP — 3.91 ERA — 24 H — 13 BB — 23 K — .258 OPP BA — 0.81 GO to AO
What’s even more intriguing are his home/road splits
Home: 24.1 IP — 1.85 ERA — 19 H — 10 BB — 24 K
Away: 26.2 IP — 5.06 ERA — 34 H — 18 BB — 31 K
Reading is a notorious hitters park, yet Outman has been light years better at home than on the road. And finally
v LHB: 14.1 IP — 4.40 ERA — 11 H — 4 BB — 17 K — 0.92 GO to AO — .220 OPP BA
v RHB: 36.2 IP — 3.19 ERA — 42 H — 24 BB — 38 K — 0.81 GO to AO — .286 OPP BA
What’s weird is, he’s actually pitched better against lefties, better peripherals across the board, but has a much higher ERA…..which to me doesn’t make a lot of sense. He’s going to be primarily used as a situational lefty if called up (I think), so these splits are more promising than they might appear at first glance.
* The Williamsport roster has been announced.
Rotation could be; Worley, Stutes, Roth, De Fratus, Arroyo
I’m sure there will be lots of guys getting innings in various ways, and a rotation of guys around the diamond. Freddy Balestas, who BA was very high on, makes the roster here, as does Darin McDonald, who really needs to step it up if he wants to salvage some of his prospect status. Travis d’Arnaud should get the bulk of the time behind the plate.
Phuture Phillies 
MarMania continues!
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***So when Marson is back to hitting .280 (or maybe .260, his career minor league average) and slugging in the high 300s, how valuable is that?***
Personally, i think that is a silly comment by Ben. he was drafted as a raw high schooler. the intention is for him to develop and get better. thus you can’t look at an averaged that was formed when he was still raw and developing and say that he will return to that form. if that was the case, then what is the point of having managers/coaches in the minor leagues? players get better. they learn how to swing better. how to recognize a pitch better. the key point is that he is a guy that has consistently gotten better as he has progressed through the system! that is much more valuable information than looking at the BA in the GCL and saying he will return to that form.
obviously, it is still tbd on whether he will hit .350+ for the season, but again, i also don’t think that is really the point. as your astute analogies point out, the key is that this guy consistently hits and draws walks at a young age in AA. if he continues to have any where close to the current performance (even if he has a slump or two in there that bring down his overall average) then he is for real.
also, i was very happy to see that golson snapped out of his 0-25 slump with 4 straight games of hits including a multi hit game. part of baseball is slumping and rebounding. i like him more as a prospect for rebounding from the 0-25 slump then if he didn’t have a slump at all. very incouraging.
hope bastardo is ok. he has shown a LOT in reading. he has been a bit wild with the walks (maybe due to his arm), but this guy gets people out! his BAA and K rate are extremely encouraging. and he seems equally good against both sides.
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I agree PP Fan, there’s no point in even having minor leagues if we don’t assume that some guys will progress!
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Marson’s been a consistent hitter all year. He’s been good defensively and he has credibility with the pitching staff. I think he’s a leader on the field. Will he be a .350 hitter as he moves up, probably not but who is? I like Ruiz as a catcher but he’s having a tough season with the bat. Coste is a really nice hitter but only passable as a catcher. Could Marson be the combination of the 2? Let’s hope. For me, he’s the only untouchable in the Phillies farm system right now.
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Marson has gotten better at three straight levels:
Lakewood, 2006: 399 PA, .243/.343/.351
Clearwater, 2007: 445 PA, .288/.373/.407
Reading, 2008: 213 PA, .347/.458/.449
The last guy who showed that kind of improvement on his way up the chain was Ryan Howard, who was also two and a half years older at each point than Marson.
A pessimistic projection would have him hitting something like .270/.360/.390 in the bigs. For a catcher with plus defense, that’s perfectly fine, but my guess is he’ll be more like .300/.380/.450. That’s an all-star some years.
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Yeah, the big thing for me, when looking at guys transitioning, is how much they grasp the strike zone. Marson has shown great plate discipline at every stop along the way. Even if he’s nothing more than a 5-8 HR a year hitter, it won’t matter. He can still hit for average, and he’ll still collect his share of doubles.
I’m extremely interested to see what PECOTA thinks about him after this season.
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Marson has the most important thing going for him right now: his last name starts with M. Mauer, McCann, Martinez, Martin, Marson?
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I don’t know how many of the people who read and contribute to the site actually get a chance to watch some of these games, but I was in Reading on Saturday (they were crushed, in case you didn’t know) and had the following, albeit limited, observations:
1. Marson has a nice, short, compact swing. He’s very athletic. I like everything about him, including the fact that he was fairly polite to my son (who got his autograph) after a depressing game.
2. Jason Donald is interesting. I was not very impressed with him afield (seemed to lack range), but he lined a rope over the right field wall. I had no idea he had that type of power. I think he’s going to be a “tweener” another Philly player who has no particular position, but can hit the ball – the type of guy that Charlie Manuel can work into a line-up.
3. Patrick Overholt throws 90 or 91 MPH, tops. Unless I caught him on a bad day, as things currently stand, he has no hope of being anything other than the next Clay Condrey. He’s nothing like a major league closer at present.
4. Brad Harman had a bad game and is having a bad year so far, but I don’t necessarily think that what I saw meant anything. He looks like a good athlete.
5. From a physical standpoint, Greg Golson is a real stud – no surprise there, but when you see him close-up, it’s pretty impressive. He’s not like a normal person or even a normal ballplayer. He’s like a Greek god.
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Thanks for the observations, as always. Good to have first hand accounts.
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H Man –
I went to the R-Phils game yesterday, and posted my thoughts in the Questions/Topics sections so I won’t repeat what I said, but I was pretty impressed with Marson too – yesterday he had two singles – one to left, one to right, as well as two more walks. He looked really professional as a hitter.
It’s odd to see that BA was almost dismissing his performance this season. Why do they expect him to go back to hitting .260? He has been ridiculously consistent this year, and in all likelihood is just coming into his own.
– Jeff
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Articles like this one in BA is the reason why the lay fan thinks our farm system is bad. I have watched Marson play six times this, in fact I have watched the entire Reading Phillies team six times. The Phillies are loaded at AA. I could care less about wins and loses at that level, its about development and Marson is at the head of the list. I don’t see how he could “regress” not with his strike zone presence, if anything going against better pitcher he might even get better. We are not talking about an old guy here either.
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As far as his homerun power I think it bears noting that overall power numbers are done this year at the ML level. His power will still be below average but with the increase in drug testing average is decreasing. If he is an OB machine who calls a good game and plays good defense that will make up for his lack of power.
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I think the .360 Avg. .455 OBP for Lou Marson is much closer to reality than what BA is seeing (seriously, what is BA seeing? What about this player says he is a complete fluke? I don’t get it). The plate discipline is phenomenal. Really, can you recall a 21 year-old AA player without power who drew more walks? I can’t.
He’s going to be a player and will almost certainly be a first-tier major league regular. To me the only question is just how good he will be. If he develops power, he could be an all-star for 10 years. My hunch is that he will become the best Phillies’ catcher of all-time and could join an infield that already has the best second baseman and best shortstop in team history and, arguably, it’s best first baseman.
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I wouldn’t want to lump those kinds of expectations on anyone. Whats interesting, to me, is how players seem to take off when they reach the majors. Most of the best players on the Phillies team right now had warts (not literally) in the minors. With Utley, it was his defense, with Rollins it was his plate discipline to a degree, with Hamels it was health, with Howard it was the strikeouts. Once these guys got acclimated, they became stars. Marson’s “wart” at this point is his power. But for his position, its very common. People kept falling over themselves to project the power to emerge for Joe Mauer, but it hasn’t yet. Yet hes still one of the most valuable catchers in baseball. I don’t think Marson is quite on Mauer’s level yet. But as long as hes solid defensively, his bat is going to play.
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To be fair, Utley still doesn’t have great range, Rollins still has mediocre plate discipline, Hamels still has health problems from time to time, and Howard set the strikeout record.
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Yes, but I think James’ point was that all four of these guys are All Stars, despite all of the experts complaining about their flaws while in the minors.
I’d expand a little further on his point by saying the numbers that Utley and Rollins have put up in the majors are far better than their minor league numbers.
– Jeff
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To James’ point, what player doesn’t have ANY flaws? It’s a matter of what skills do they have that compenstate for said flaws and how major are those flaws? If he hits a line of .300/.400/.400, plays great defense and calls a good game 10 HR a year is acceptable.
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A good OBP catcher in this lineup would be lethal. He’s probably more valuable to the phils than most major league teams.
What an upgrade he would be over the DP machine they have now.
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Ducky, my point was, these warts are the things that were harped on by outlets like BA and BP when these players were coming up through the minors, but the players have gone on to be impact stars. So while Marson’s power shortage is the first thing people are going to talk about, I think his ability to control the strike zone is a much bigger plus, as his defensive ability and his game calling acumen, both of which would appear to be at least average and probably above.
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What hasn’t been mentioned was in the very same chat that guy fell all over him self to say that Chris Morero, he of the same high school team of adrian cardenas, wasn’t having as bad a year as it seemed because of his approach at the plate and still projects as a good player. These BA guys see guys in person maybe once and take all there judgements from that one time.
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Ducky – that is pretty tough bro. you are talking about the prior two NL MVPs and the leading contendor for this year’s MVP as well as a young All Star pitcher who is the ace of the staff for a first place team…sheesh…what does a guy need to do?
btw, to all of those “trade howard”guys out there, he is 3rd in the NL in RBIs (4th in all baseball), 8th in homeruns, 11th in runs scored. And what is most impressive about his RBI total is that the guy hitting directly in front of him is second in the NL in RBIs (so not as many ducks on the pond). not exactly easy to replace that kind of production.
to way in on james’s question (and i know he won’t like my answer), i think that “scouts” that write for mags like BA put too much stock in “stuff” and “tools” as players come up through the minors. these scouts don’t focus on production as much as they should. i also don’t think that these scouts focus enough on the mental make-up of a player. work ethic and competitiveness are probably the biggest factors of success and the reason player get better in the bigs. some guys just work harder than others. work ethic and competitiveness are much more important than stuff or tools. scouts drool over a guy because they see him hit a bomb 475 feet. he’s got the “power” tool. but they often miss that that guy goes out an parties at night and comes to the park on time. that is the make-up of a guy who will never make it. i know this is not my opinion. i just happen to agree with the moneyball theory.
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James–
Any update on Mike Durant?
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I’ll be surprised if Marson does not have 8-12 HR power in his first few years FOR THE AVERAGE PARK. In CBP, I’ll be supriosed if he does not break 10 each year for 2-3 and then march up year by year to the twenties. Just speculation, but I’m thinking Marson is dedicated to a sound AB every time–select the right pitch and hit a line drive. That’s a solid foundation. With his physique, approach and athleticism, he will learn to recognize mistakes better as he gets in his MLB comfort zone. Minimum 15 HR within 3-4 years, IMO. Maybe a lot like Lieby and hit 25+ one year. As I say, just a hunch about this guy based on his great fundamentals and physical makeup.
But I also agree a guy hittin .320 with 8 HR 75+ RBI, .800 OPS, etc. can also make a couple AS teams.
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If you think scouts aren’t looking at work ethic, “grit”, and character, I think you’ve been reading different things than I have. The reality is, the superstars in the game are all “tools” players. A-Rod was a 5 tool talent, Jeter was a 5 tool talent, Pujols was a 4 tool talent, the Uptons are 5 tool talents, etc etc etc. Character and determination matter, but so do tools. Its easy to point to Kyle Kendrick and say “see, he just succeeds because he tries so hard and makes due with his limited tools”, but thats missing the point. Guys like Kendrick are not the rule, they are the exception. Without quality tools, your odds of making it to the majors are low, hell even with great tools your odds are low. That other stuff, the determination and all the other cliches, that matters too, but if you don’t have the raw ability, you’re a big longshot to not only make it, but be an impact player.
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Fair enough James.
PP fan: I never said they weren’t amazing players. I was just saying that even they weren’t without warts.
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Michael Durant is off the DL in Lakewood and will be the DH in the SAL all star game Tuesday night. He will be back in the Lakewood lineup Thursday night.
Matt Rizzotti broke his hand and is on the DL in Lakewood.
Drew Carpenter activated from DL in Clearwater
Carlos Leon added to Clearwater
Antonio Bastardo (left should inflammation) and Jason Kershner (mid-back spasms) placed on the DL retro-active to 6/15 …
Tyson Brummett added to Reading from Clearwater …
Justin Pope activated from the DL (4/16 right shoulder inflammation).
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Tyson Brummett is now on the Reading roster to replace the DL’ed Bastardo. Only one earned run in his last two starts over 15 innings. Thought he was over matched at high A after his call up from Lakewood but has turned it around. His combined 1.53 GO/AO is in the 07 Kendrick range.
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Impressive stuff from Brummett. I know he’d been the Friday starter at UCLA, but he’s certainly exceeded expectations this year, and even if he’s not quite ready for AA, he’s the best option out of the Clearwater starters.
And as far as similar-type pitchers go… an encouraging outing from Andrew Carpenter tonight in Clearwater (6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K). I know he’s already been there and done that in the FSL, but given his performance at Reading this year, it’s good to see any encouraging sign from him.
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Utley doesn’t have great range? I’d beg to differ. Range is his strength defensively; it’s his arm and his DP turns that are his weaknesses defensively.
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***If you think scouts aren’t looking at work ethic, “grit”, and character, I think you’ve been reading different things than I have.***
Great. please point me to some. because i never hear the BA guys say a word about golson’s work ethic being supreme. only the constant focus on the Ks.
***The reality is, the superstars in the game are all “tools” players. A-Rod was a 5 tool talent, Jeter was a 5 tool talent, Pujols was a 4 tool talent, the Uptons are 5 tool talents, etc etc etc. Character and determination matter, but so do tools. ***
wow, i couldn’t disagree with you more on this one.
* big papi – 2 tools
* manny ramirez – 2 tools
* joe mauer – 3 tools
* ryan howard – 2 tools
* Lance Berkman – 2.5 tools (decent speed)
* Matt Holliday – 2 tools (he is a butcher in left)
* pujols is not a 4-tool player. he is a 2 tool player (average and power). he recently developed fielding but was a butcher at first for a while. he can’t run and is not a great arm.
the list goes on and on. most stars in the game are 2-3 tools but are amazing at those tools. that is what it takes. that is what gets missed so often. everyone is looking for the 5-tooler and often misses people like kevin youkalis (the greek god of walks) who happens to be one of the best hitters in the game.
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Ok. You’re right.
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Other than Travis D’Arnaud, Williamsport seems to have a shortage of major league prospects on its roster especially if Ballestas is the best they could find for the opening day starter.
http://www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/511837.html?nav=5023
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Agree Utley has very good range. Shook my head when I read that one too.
The news on Carpenter is encouraging. Let’s hope the send-down to Extended and the likely rigorous conditioning he got there did the trick and is a wakeup call to him. Players who have had success think they are bullet-proof and above the ordinary level of physiological reality. Hope this brings him down to earth and gets him on the conditioning train. Even people like Colon and Valenzuela, who had success pitching as fattened hogs for a while, hit the wall eventually. Maybe it’s a blessing Carpenter got the wakeup call early.
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Just wondering what you guys think, is he in line for a call-up? And does he need another season in the minors or could he be pushing to make the team next season?
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