My analysis of the draft

2008 Draft

As promised, I wanted to digest the draft and then give some detailed observations and thoughts, and then solicit the opinions of everyone here, and we can try to form some sort of opinion of the draft. Of course, the overall worth of this draft will be determined in 4-5 years, and even then the picture might still be cloudy. But it never hurts to go on record with some initial thoughts, and its always fun to re-visit those thoughts down the road and see where I missed in a big way, and where I might have been right. I’m going to stop short of going off on long rants, I already covered Day 1 in somewhat lengthy detail, so this is more a look at Day 2, and then trying to figure out how to grade the draft. So, here we go…

* Lets compare the composition of the 2008 draft to last year’s draft.

High School: 2008 = 25, 2007 = 25
Junior College: 2008 = 6, 2007 = 3
College Junior: 2008 = 3, 2007 = 10
College Senior/5th Year SR: 2008 = 17, 2007 = 14
No School: 2008 = 2, 2007 = 0

What’s striking, and I thought about it at the time, was that we took a grand total of 3 college juniors. I’m not going to go through the other 29 teams, but I have to think that is the fewest among all MLB teams. We doubled the number of JuCo players we took, including one of the top guys in Colby Schreve, but we actually increased our number of college seniors, and drafted the exact number of high school kids. It kind of felt like we took more prepsters, but I think the difference was just at the top. Those are the overall breakdowns, but lets look at the first 10 rounds

2007: 3 HS, 4 NCAA3, 5 NCAA4, 1 NCAA5
2008: 8 HS, 2 NCAA3, 1 JuCo

What a difference a year makes. The Phillies took 0 college seniors in the first 10 rounds, and only 2 college juniors. Schreve was a high profile JuCo guy, and then the 8 prepsters. So while the overall numbers look similar (except for the college juniors), the Phillies really rolled the dice at the top of the draft. And that means they must be confident in their ability to sign these guys.

* Signability is going to be the absolute number 1 factor in determining the quality of this draft. I don’t mind the Phillies gambling on a bunch of high ceiling guys….in fact, thats a good strategy, but they have to follow through on these risks by getting as many of these guys signed as possible. I’m not even talking about the late round guys like Charlie Law, its a foregone conclusion hes going to college, I’m talking about the guys in the first 10 rounds. MLB has apparently raised all of the slots by 10% from 2007, and in 2007 they had decreased the slots by 10% arbitrarily, so we’re basically back to 2006 money. Here are the slot numbers for our picks, roughly, for the first 8 rounds.

#24: $1,361,000
#34: $907,500
#51: $668,250
#71: $506,000
#102: $374,000
#110: $302,500
#136: $211,200
#166: $154,000
#196: $137,500
#226: $133,000
#256: $88,000

Thats basically slot money. If you add that up, you’ve got $4,843,200. Last year, the Phillies total bonus payout was $3,312,000. If you add 10% to that number, you’ve got $3,643,200. As you can see, with the extra picks, there is a gap to bridge. The figure for last year is only the first 10 rounds, and the Phillies did make a few big bonus signings in the later rounds, so they did spend a bit more money that the total above represents, but we’re talking about a difference of $1.2M that needs to be made up. The problem is, even if you are willing to pay that difference, its not likely to be enough to sign everyone taken in the first 8 rounds. So lets go pick by pick

Hewitt: Likely to sign for slot or close to it.
Collier: Likely to sign for slot or close to it.
Gose: I feel like it might take slightly more than slot. However, promising him he can start as an OF might get him in right around the slot number.
Knapp: My guess is that he was taken this high because this is the number he needed to sign and not go to college.
Worley: He’s a junior, he can go back to school, but he didn’t have a great junior year. Slot is 374K, I’d guess he’d sign for close to that.
Pettibone: I think its unlikely he’ll sign for slot, and because this was a comp pick, if he doesn’t sign we get nothing. I think it might take about 500K to sign him.
May: May is similar to Pettibone, and I think it could take around 500K, maybe even a bit more, to sign him away from Washington.
Hamilton: Similar to Worley, can go back to school, but I think around slot should get him signed.
Schreve: I think its a near lock he won’t sign for slot. He was projected as a comp round pick, which would have paid him about $700-900K. Because of his injury, I don’t think it will take the high end of that number, but I think we’re looking at at least $600K. Because he was taken where he was, even after having TJ surgery, I have to think the Phillies already know the number.
Coy: I think Coy will be a tough sign, and again will look for at least $350K here.
Rodriguez: I think he’ll sign, but it won’t be for $80K.

When you look at this, I can’t see how all of these guys sign. If they want to sign Schreve and either May or Pettibone, it will likely be at the expense of Worley and Hamilton. Last year the Phillies took college seniors, which allowed them to skimp on bonuses, and even then they didn’t take that money “saved” and sign Brandon Workman. I have a hard time believing they’d take a player with a compensation pick and not sign him, but then again, you never know with the Phillies. I see a lot of money tied up into these picks, especially if they intend on landing Schreve and one of either May or Pettibone. If asked to pick, I’d take May. My guess is that the Phillies will use them both as leverage and sign whichever guy comes cheaper, but thats just a hunch. Overbeck will be an easy sign I think, not sure about Jean Rodriguez to round out the first 10 rounds.

* Looking at the later rounds, again lots of interesting picks, but very few to me that I can see signing. Charlie Law has already said he’s going to college, and Marrs is likely unsignable, as he was probably the best of the rest we took late in the draft. Ginther is an intriguing guy, but he’s likely going to be a two sport guy at Oklahoma and play QB. I’d like to see them take a run at Keon Broxton and Jarred Cosart, but both guys will be tough signs.

* Essentially, evaluating this draft right now is nearly impossible. The Phillies went big, they took tons of high ceiling prep guys and tons of low ceiling college seniors, particularly pitchers. The latter aspect is ok if you can see a few of these guys possibly becoming middle relievers in the bigs, but they need to fast track them and find out what they have, not leave 23/24 old year guys in the Sally League for half a season (cough Chance Chapman cough). They look to be playing the odds with the toolsy guys, drafting tons of them in hopes of hitting on a handful. If 2 out of the 25 high school players turn into stars, then this draft was a success. If they only sign 4 or 5 out of the 25, the odds of any of them becoming stars is greatly decreased. I’m not expecting them to sign all of these guys, but they need to sign a decent percentage of the prepsters, or this draft instantly becomes 100% riskier than it already was.

Right now, I like the boldness of the draft, though I still think the Hewitt pick was a tad too bold. If the Phillies sign Hewitt, Collier, Gose, Knapp, Schreve, Hamilton, and one of either May or Pettibone, I’ll consider it a success. If they also sign Worley and Coy, then I give the draft a definite seal of approval. If they also sign Broxton, Marrs, or one of the late round high school kids, I’ll be very optimistic about our chances. If they fail to sign more than 5-6 of their first 13 picks, I’ll be disappointed.

So, now you have my take, let me have yours.

44 thoughts on “My analysis of the draft”

  1. I am no draft guru or minor league expert by any means. But I love this draft, If we can get most of these guys signed. The way I saw this draft is that there really wasn’t a lot of impact guys but a lot that Could be great and the Phillies picked a ton of them. The Schreve pick shows that they are at least thinking outside the box for once.

    Like

  2. So do you think that any of their draftees are likely to sign for below slot (i.e. Mach last year)?

    Like

  3. Most of the guys like Mach (college seniors) taken in this draft were taken outside of the Top 10 rounds, so their bonus would be minimal anyway. Which is what makes this kind of strange. The only way they’ll really be able to “save” money is to just not sign these guys.

    Like

  4. My opinion about drafting after the top 5 or 10 picks in the first round is that there is not too much of a difference in the prospective players to round out the first round. So when we’re at 24 looking to see who’s available, I’d go with the guy with the most potential, even if it is a high risk. This, I think, is the same philosophy that the Phillies FO operates with. Taking Drabek and Hamels in years past, despite their injuries, were cases of the Phils snatching up two guys loaded with potential, but also the possibility that they’d never get past Clearwater. Just because of the vast array of players in college, Juco, and high school, baseball’s draft is foggier than football or basketball, since all of those draftees are playing the same league, with rare exceptions. That being said, I like the Hewitt pick because he could ultimately become a superstar. Bash the Phils FO all you want for taking guys that are athletes rather than baseball players, but from where they are picking, they’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle, knowing that it will take a while for them to develop, in hopes of finding a superstar. Hamels was obviously a great pick, Drabek is still recovering, and Golson is putting it together in Reading despite his recent slump. Hewitt may or may not become the player the Phils hope for him to be, but from where they were picking, potential was the right selection.

    Like

  5. In the Top 15 Rounds, I think the players most likely *NOT* to sign are the following (in order)

    1. Ryan Weber, Round 12
    2. Colby Shreve, Round 6
    3. Jon Pettibone, Round 3b
    4. Johnny Coy, Round 7

    Actually, I feel fairly confident that we’ll sign all of the others and Pettibone and Coy.

    Like

  6. i liked the draft, they went prepsters early, and college relievers late, which makes it easier to sign some of the early HS becuase we took them at a good slot position…..

    I liked that we waited on college relievers instead of getting them early…. Schlereth was already icing his elbow this weekend…. I liked the strategy, i liked a lot of the picks, including Hewitt and Collier…. if Coy, pettibone, or shreve sign, with the others we figure too, i consider it a success….

    even though Weber wont sign it would be nice, as a super dominant HS pitcher in FL, he probably feels he can raise his stock, but he is not a big kid, and it wouldnt take but a cpl bad years with the Gators to see his stock plummet…. so i hope we can get him

    i really dont see how shreve doesnt sign, thats just my opinion though, i mean really i dont know how he is gonna gamble again with this draft think, sign urself up, rehab and start your pro career, for his sake i think this is his best option rather than gamble any further…..

    Like

  7. i think shreve and coy will be a lot easier to sign than you do, in that i think coy and shreve are “easy” signs, as i feel they’d just be happy to get their professional careers started.
    “Coy’s interest in baseball seems sincere as he missed large stretches of the AAU summer basketball circuit the past two years while playing summer baseball. Numerous published articles in local newspapers quote Coy and his family as saying they are very serious about baseball and would consider signing “for anything in the 8th round or better.”—DAVID RAWNSLEY

    and if i were shreve, and i’ve been drafted twice in the first 10 rounds out of junior college, plus i’ve undergone major arm surgery, and i’ve only got two years of college eligibility remaining, one of which will likely be eaten up by a redshirt, i’ve gotta be saying fuck it, i want to do this right. doing it right means taking on the responsibility of doing it as a full time job. for a price, of course.

    Like

  8. I think I like Weber better then Petibone- he reminds me a bit of Hellickson when he was drafted.

    Like

  9. Overall, I really like the draft, but only if they get some of these guys signed. We won’t be able to give even initial analysis of it until August 15, or whenever the signing cutoff date is.

    That being said, I think the two guys least likely to sign are actually Gose and Schreve. Gose would net a mid-second next year if he didn’t sign, and unless he agrees to pitch, I don’t see where he fits in the system. Schreve just costs too much most likely, unless the Phillies convince him to take a pay cut due to TJ.

    My three favorite guys taken, in order:
    1. Hewitt – I know he’s raw, has questionable contact skills, etc. But he has major superstar potential, can play pretty much any position, and from what I read, he might even be able to develop as a switch hitter.

    2. May – Just really like everything I’ve read about this guy. Seems capable of turning into a #2 guy down the road.

    3. Collier – Seems to be a solid all around prospect. Star potential, but not to the extent of Hewitt IMO.

    Like

  10. I like this draft, except for the top pick. One thing these scouting reports all seem to say is the pitchers are strike throwers. Knapp is a big horse and I’ll bet Arbuckle soon will say he reminds him of Jason Schmidt.
    Another thing the Phils have done is complete the minor league cycle. Starting next year, prospects will be at every level of the system and bubble their way up in the years ahead. AAA all the way down to Gulf Coast rookie ball. This what the Braves did for years and just let the cream rise to the top. Of course, they have some bad drafts in the late 1990s and it now shows.
    Back to the pitchers who throw strikes comment I made, this has Chuck LaMarr’s fingerprints on it. Just look at some of the high schoolers he drafted when he was in Tampa Bay. Wasn’t it Chuck who was sitting next to Wolever when Comcast showed the draft room footage while Arbuckle was seated at the head of the table a distance aways?

    Like

  12. I do have this glimmer of hope that on August 15th we can all come to this board and say “Take that BUD SELIG, we’re tired of being ur bitches”.

    Like

  13. A little of topic but, thanks be to god for the intronet! I have been (trying) to follow the draft and the minor leagues for the Phils for 5 years and I think you guys do a great job filling the void that once existed. Thank the guys over at WSBGMs for helping me find you. I’ve put the word out to a few other phans, and hopfully they do the same. Great work!
    Since we are talking about not having results for the next 4-5 years on this class, can we (you) take a look at the 2003 and 2004 drafts and see how we fared?
    I hope we sign most of these guys cause like VinceMajesky said, it’d be nice to see prospects at every level.

    Like

  14. If they do blow us all away and sign let’s say 10-12 of their top 13 picks, would you be upset because they could have probably gone out maybe and taken a better 1st rounder and invest on him and just sign less picks later on?

    Like

  16. This could be a very good draft, the budget will tell the tale. If Squire’s signing predictions hold true, it should be a very good draft.

    Like

  17. I couldn’t have imagined a bigger turnaround in the top 10 rounds from 2007 to 2008. They really can afford not to sign one of those picks, maybe two, but anything more than that wouldn’t utilize the extra picks relative to picks signed last year. I’m still a little stunned about the draft, I’m not sure I have digested it yet.

    Like

  18. “I don’t now if Weber has the same type of projection that Hellickson had. ”

    Oh, I don’t think his project is near Hellickson- after all Hellickson was a 3rd or 4th rounder I think. My impression of him is that he should be able to do well as he starts out given his control and slider with reasonable velocity right now. his ball doesn’t seem to sink a great deal as much as he probably could get it to do with that arm angle. Speaking of that arm angle- I was a little leary of it at first, but for some reason i just keep seeing clips in my head of ‘old timers’ throwing from that arm angle in a bunch of video bytes i’ve seen.

    Like

  19. If a good number sign…Gose and Shreve especially, then I’ll be very happy with the draft. I was just reading a thing on the Red Sox and how they changed their luck in the draft with Epstein: Switch from drafting college seniors with low ceilings in the first few rounds to HS guys with much more upside and risk. Its worked out for them in that they now have Top 5 farm system. I know that alot of it is busting slot for them but still the rest is a good step in the right direction.

    Like

  20. Interesting that they’ve slated Hewitt for 3rd base AND that he might be “taught” to switch-hit. Hoping for power from both sides of the plate. Good pick.

    Collier jusr fell–unexpectedly–in their lap. Excellent!

    Hp[e Gose will ultimately consider pitching…at least after trying out the OF for a bit.

    The recent Phils’ drafting/signing history suggests that most if not all of the first 15 guys will be signed.

    Given how “vital” this draft is to the org, how much attendance has been, and described vital by the FO themselves, I believe the purse will be opened more than any recent time…

    We’ll see.

    Like

  21. Completely agree with your analysis, James. Clearly the Phils aren’t going to sign everyone, but if they let more than one or two out of the Top 10 rounds get away, then they’re doing themselves a disservice.

    I’m with the fish: Weber really intrigues me, if only because he’s the polar opposite of the young projectable arms the Phils normally take. To be honest, I think I’d rather have him than Pettibone (though that probably shows how amateur-ish I am at this stuff).

    I’m excited to get these guys signed and let ’em get to it. The NYPL and GCL start up soon, and we’ll hopefully see the 2008 Draft Class well represented.

    Like

  22. I can’t say I know too much about the picks themselves, nor do I have a feel for the depth of pitching vs. the depth of position players in the draft. But at the ML level it is clearly much easier to acquire top-talent position players than it is to acquire top starting pitching. Because of that, I am disappointed that the Phillies didn’t focus on pitching as much as I would have liked in the higher rounds.

    In that same vein, I do not agree that Gose should play OF until he’s given pitching a full and fair shot on the mound. Now, it may be that he won’t sign unless they let him play OF, but in that case, maybe they simply should have picked someone else.

    Like

  23. I agree with xfactor, according to some of the write ups i’ve seen on Gose, it’s that he’s got decent potential as a pitcher and as an outfielder is juan pierre at the absolute best. If your going to draft a guy to be a pitcher he should know he’s being drafted as a pitcher, instead of telling him he can play outfield and hoping he’ll change his mind. it’ll just end up being lost time that could’ve been used for pitching development. Or like xfactor said, if he doesn’t want to pitch maybe we should’ve drafted someone that does.

    Like

  24. James when do you expect the first round of signings to be announced by the Phils? I am so anxious for some news!

    On a side note congrats to Tom Gordon, his son Devaris Strange-Gordon agreed to terms on a contract with the Dodgers today. A great ending to a heart wrenching story for the kid.

    Like

  25. First off, thanks James for busting your ass on this sight and congrats on all of the hits.

    I actually really really like this draft. I am more optimistic right now than ever that the Phils will clear the moths out of their wallet and sign most if not all of their first day picks.

    But there is something you missed in your comparative analysis of the cost of last year’s draft to the projected cost of this year’s, James. The Phillies didn’t sign Workman because he wanted more than slot. There is $900,000 of that missing $1.2 million right there.

    The FO has been increasing the overall team salary each year, and I have a good feeling that they are doing the same with their draft funds.

    Like

  26. Dkit and xfactor: not to play devil’s advocate, but I’m sure it’s something of a touchy situation with Gose. If the choice is either don’t sign him, or give him a crack at the outfield first, I think it’s a decent enough gamble to let him try the field while keeping your fingers crossed that he flames out there. Yeah, maybe they could have taken someone whose position was set, but they gambled that they could eventually convince Gose to pitch, where he can be a real impact player. to be honest, I don’t mind the move.

    Like

  27. does anyone feel like starting a new topic to update everyone on how our college draft picks are doing in the college world series?

    Like

  28. Too Colin: The 2003 Draft was a brutal 1 for the Phillies with no picks in the 1st or 2nd rounds. Our 3rd round was Tim Moss a toolsy OFer who never panned out. 4th RD was Bourne, 5th RD Javon Moran another Toolsy guy who showed signs here and there. The only Pick to make an impact was with the 7th RD pick on Kyle Kendrick.

    The 2004 Draft wasnt much better IMO. With the 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th round picks we grabbed Golson (toolsy OFer) Jaramillo C, J.A. Happ and Lou Marson. The only other guy of significance was Bisenius and hes been having arm troubles.

    Like

  29. Golson, Jaramillo, Happ and Marson all have an excellent shot of making the majors, so that in of itself makes it a good draft. Plus I think Marson has all-star possibility.

    Like

  30. “I was just reading a thing on the Red Sox and how they changed their luck in the draft with Epstein: Switch from drafting college seniors with low ceilings in the first few rounds to HS guys with much more upside and risk.”

    I don’t know that any of there highschoolers have made it to the big leagues. all of their success from the farm has been from college draftees.

    “The Phillies didn’t sign Workman because he wanted more than slot. There is $900,000 of that missing $1.2 million right there.”

    What was budgeted for that slot was much more then half $900,000

    Like

  31. I think they may have decided they preferred Sampson and put their alloted Workman money there.

    Like

  32. Anybody following Workman in college. Last time I checked he had an ERA over 5 and a bad K:BB ratio. I guess we won’t know if this was a good decision until 4 or 5 years down the line.

    Like

  33. Stephen Susdorf hit an absolute bomb to center yesterday as the Fresno State Bulldogs upset Arizona State to go to the CWS! He got lots of air time as he went 3-6 1HR and 3RBI’s and Barry Larkin compared him to Will Clark!

    Like

  34. Susdorf had a great super regional. I think he went 6-16 with 3 doubles, a triple and a HR. Also made a sliding catch in the last inning. Seems like a good value pick where he was taken and a guy who will bring some offense to the Crosscutters once the CWS is wrapped up.

    Like

  35. I’d be happy with 8 or more of the top 10 signed, less than that and they lost thier extra picks.

    Like

  36. Didn’t Moss play 2b? I remember him playing for Texas in the college world series and hit Mendoza during his time in the org.

    I too think the ’04 draft has a chance to be a good one with Marson, Golson, Happ and Jaramillo making their impact in 1-2 years. I listed them in the order of impact greatest to least in my opinion.

    Shame that Wade signed all those mediocre free agents instead of keeping the picks. You can see the gap between the current major league roster and the top players in the minors…its an age gap of 3-5 years (utley, rollins, howard are all late 20s and the golsons, marsens and donalds of the world are early to mid 20s.

    All in all though if you get 5 of your starting 8 homegrown and 4 of your 5 starters homegrown (counting Eaton even though he bounced around a few years after being a 1st rounder for us) that is really good scouting/drafting/developing.

    Like

  37. Moss indeed was a 2b–not a good one, threw like Mookie Wilson.

    The important numbers in this draft come before the “flier” picks in the late rounds–instead of college juniors and seniors, we took prep players. The numbers comparison at teh top of the article is very misleading.

    Re: Hewitt and switch-hitting–don’t do it unless he has no prayer of ever hitting RH breaking balls. Teaching someone to switch-hit after HS is dicey at best, and even more risky when most of his ABs are going to come from his unnatural side. You better be sure he won’t be a success as a pure righty before you do it–don’t arrogantly just assume he can learn it and it will make him more valuable. It ain’t that easy.

    Like

  39. shane victorino taught himself to switch hit. I know that is just one example but if hewitt is as much as a natural athlete as people say, maybe give it a chance. Also, the phillies brass had hewitt take a few swings from the left side during his try out at the bank and he apparently looked good enough. Any young baseball player has toiled with hitting from the opposite side as a youngster.

    Like

  40. I personally really like the chances of the 2004 draft. Happ is ready with no spots open in the ML. He’s an injury from contributing, and would make a nice compliment to Romero. Marson was pretty hyped early on, and now we’re beginning to see why. Golson as well has come on well, though his walk rate is troubling. I don’t see him as an impact player at this point, but he has enough skill to showcase in a trade to some team that doesn’t value plate discipline too highly. These guys back then were taken as high ceiling preps, and it looks like it could even be one of the better drafts we’ve had once time tells the whole story.

    I like the two-way possibilities of our top picks. If they are busts as hitters there’s nothing really lost but development time, which is still fine as their bodies will get to mature a little bit before the grind of pitching wears them down. The Gose kid in particular looks great on the bump. If he hits, great.

    The Phils I think had easily the most risk in the draft based on signability issues and how much youth overall they drafted early on. Not a lot of “safe” picks there.

    Like

  41. Has anyone seen any national analysis of the draft? if so, what grades were given to the Phils? I saw Law’s take on ESPN.com.

    Like

  42. Corey: Given that Hewitt has allegedly struggled to hit right handed, I’d let him concentrate on that. I feel like you increase the chances that he’ll flame out if you throw too much at him.

    Lancophilsphan: did Law give us a grade, or are you referring to the “upside or death” analysis? (Oh, and am I right to assume you’re from Lancaster? My hometown too, so I’m happy to see a fellow Amishman on this Phils site ha).

    Like

  43. LOL…the amish use computers now?

    Seriously though, I’d love to see an initial grade of the draft but I suppose it depends heavily on the picks actually signing.

    Like

Comments are closed.