The official Draft Day discussion thread

2008 Draft

Well folks, the draft has arrived. All the time spent analyzing players, reading scouting reports, and thinking about who we want/don’t want, and today is the day. The draft starts at 2PM Eastern, and the first round + compensation round will be shown on ESPN2. As you may have heard by now, the Phillies have lots of picks in the first 5 rounds, and a real chance to add a bunch of talent to the system. The Phillies have hinted that they will be more aggressive in terms of taking better talent, but they’ve also name dropped a couple of really questionable guys, at least in my opinion. I’ll post the full draft order, and we’ll discuss the draft as it unfolds. Any last minute rumors, post them here. Any random thoughts as it unfolds, post them here. I’ll do a full wrapup of today’s action later tonight with detailed thoughts. Baseball Prospectus is doing a roundtable chat today starting at 1PM, which will supplement the TV coverage nicely. You can get prepared for that right here.

Round 1

01. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, GA)
02. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt)
03. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer, 1B (American Heritage School, FL)
04. Baltimore – Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego)
05. San Francisco – Buster Posey, C (Florida State)
06. Florida – Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA)
07. Cincinnati – Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami)
08. Chicago White Sox – Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia)
09. Washington – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri)
10. Houston – Jason Castro, C (Stanford)
11. Texas – Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina)
12. Oakland – Jemile Weeks, 2B (Miami)
13. St Louis – Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State)
14. Minnesota – Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP (Wilson HS, CA)
15. LA Dodgers – Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP (Stephens County HS, GA)
16. Milwaukee – Brett Lawrie, C (Brookswood Secondary School, BC)
17. Toronto – David Cooper, 1B (California)
18. NY Mets – Ike Davis, 1B (Arizona State)
19. Chicago Cubs – Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU)
20. Seattle – Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)
21. Detroit – Ryan Perry, RHP (Arizona)
22. NY Mets – Reese Havens, SS (South Carolina)
23. San Diego – Allan Dykstra, 1B (Wake Forest)
24. Philadelphia – Anthony Hewitt, SS (Salisbury School, CT)
25. Colorado – Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky)
26. Arizona – Daniel Schlereth, LHP (Arizona)
27. Minnesota – Carlos Gutierrez, RHP (Miami)
28. NY Yankees – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
29. Cleveland – Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B (Pitt CC, NC)
30. Boston – Casey Kelly, SS (Sarasota HS, FL)

Compensation Round

31. Minnesota – Shooter Hunt, RHP (Tulane)
32. Milwaukee – Jake Odorizzi, RHP (Highland HS, IL)
33. NY Mets – Brad Holt, RHP (UNC Wilmington)

34. Philadelphia – Zach Collier, OF (Chino Hills HS, CA)
51. Philadelphia – Anthony Gose, LHP/OF (Bellflower HS, CA)
71. Philadelphia – Jason Knapp, RHP (North Hunterdon HS, NJ)
102. Philadelphia – Vance Worley, RHP (Long Beach State)
109. Philadelphia – Jonathon Pettibone, RHP (Esperanza HS, CA)
136. Philadelphia – Trevor May, RHP (Kelso HS, WA)
166. Philadelphia – Jeremy Hamilton, 1B (Wright State)
196. Philadelphia – Colby Schreve, RHP (CC of Southern Nevada)

356 thoughts on “The official Draft Day discussion thread”

  1. This is absolutly an exciting day for a phillies fan. If they can land 5 guys that make the top 30 and 3 that can make the top 10 in the organization by this time next year I will be estatic. I do think there is a posibility (*25%) of a top 15 talent falling to 24, the question is… who, and if needed will they bust slot. GO PHILLIES!

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  2. I don’t particularly care for the names that are being associated with the Phillies. Who knows? Way back as a young draft follower I can recall strongly disliking the selection of Chase Utley over Aaron Heilman. At this point we may be resigned to hoping Casey Kelly or Zach Collier falls to 24.

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  3. This may sound silly, but I have a lot of confidence in Wolever and Arbuckle. I think they have succeeded by and large in the past and will continue to do so today. Also, even though I love amateur baseball and follow the players as closely as I can, in reality, I know very little about player x and player y. So, instead of hoping the Phillies choose one or two particular players, I will put my faith in our scouts and hope that the Phillies instead take an aggressive approach to the draft. Also, a power bat or two might be nice.

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  4. Jim Callis now has us projected to land Shooter Hunt

    24. PHILADELPHIA. With Matusz and Crow seeking major league contracts and Scheppers getting hurt, Hunt was positioned as the best slot-money college starter just a couple of weeks ago. He hasn’t pitched well down the stretch and is sliding, but his stuff is too good to drop out of the first round. The Phillies have been associated with toolsy high school athletes such as fast-rising Connecticut shortstop Anthony Hewitt and California outfielder Zach Collier, but they may wait until their sandwich pick at No. 34 to take that plunge.

    Projected Pick: SHOOTER HUNT, rhp, Tulane.

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  7. Neduol Caz- Doesn’t sound silly to me; I echo your sentiment. I have faith in Arbuckle…you can’t argue with his track record, and wouldn’t mind a more aggressive approach to this year’s draft. How about Devin Hood at 51? He might cost a little extra, but I like the idea of stockpiling athletic, high school position players to compete with one another. Instead of piling expectations on a single player, like Collier, how about drafting a bunch of helium guys with the hope that at least one becomes a star? I’m in favor of laying a new foundation, with talented, athletic position players, that can grow together, and in 4-5 years solidify into the future core of this franchise. Of course I’d mix in a few young arms, and perhaps a college reliever, but I’d like at least 3 position players in their first 7 picks.

    Look at the D’backs, Rays and Dodgers…those teams are built with athleticism. Taking raw athletes isn’t always a bad idea, but they need to be able to hit and have plus power.

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  8. No one has ever argued, as far as I can tell, that taking pure athletes is a bad thing. The problem is, some teams are better at “teaching” guys to hit than others. When was the last time the Phillies drafted a “projectable athlete” and taught him how to hit? Golson has come around this year, but we’re talking 5 years after he was drafted, and hes still striking out a ton, and not projected to hit for average.

    A guy like Anthony Hewitt is really scary, because he can’t even hit high school pitching, let alone projecting him to hit against top competition in the minors. I have no problem taking a guy like Collier, who has tons of tools and athleticism, because Collier has already demonstrated he can hit, and he’s already shown some present power.

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  9. Hunt would be a great pick! I remember seeing him his Freshman year at UVa before he went to Tulane. He didn’t stick around because he thought he might not get a chance to start with Jacob Thompson and Sean Doolittle around.

    A couple other mocks have the Padres taking Hunt at 23.

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  10. I actually don’t want Hunt. He’s a 2 pitch pitcher, and he has control/command issues. He’s probably going to end up a reliever, though maybe thats the Phillies plan.

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  11. It sounds like a pretty low ceiling draft by the late 1st round. While I’d like to do better than a RP, getting a college version of Ryan Madson wouldn’t be too bad I guess.

    This was a bad year to get that comp pick too I guess. I almost think that taking Hewitt might be worth it. At this point, you might as well take the risk on the high ceiling. Maybe even better is not signing someone and getting an extra low 1st rounder next year when the pickings aren’t as slim. I wonder how the commissioner would view that strategy. I also wonder how fans would react to not signing the 1st round pick.

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  12. phuturephillies — I wouldn’t say Golson necessarily projects as a low BA guy, although he certainly won’t carry his current averag in the majors. The legitimate big knock on Golson is the extremely low BB rate, which leads to a low oba, even if the ba is ok. The huge number of Ks wouldn’t be a concern if he showed the power and walk rate of guys like Burrell and Howard. With mediocre power and infinitesimal walks, the K rate is indicative of inadequate or at least inadequately developed hitting and pitch recognition skills.

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  13. chocoburger — that is why we should be aggressive in the first 3 rounds (except for 3rd round makeup pick). Guys who won’t sign this year will be replaced by equivalent picks in a likely better draft next season. The new rules point to boldness being rewarded. A bigger budget wouldn’t hurt either. We should draft the best players who fall to us, Boras client or not, and make a strong effort to sign them. If they don’t sign, just bank the draft pick for next year.

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  14. According to Keith Law, Mariners doctors gave the thumbs up on Tanner Scheppers and the team could take him at #20.

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  16. Let’s have a draft like Boston did in 2005: Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Bowden and Lowrie. THEN Marti Wolever can talk.

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  17. There was an interesting article recently about the Phillies’ head fakes when they were drafting Hamels. Apparently, they convinced a bunch of teams that he was not healthy and that the Phils’ doctors led the Phillies to pull him from the team’s draft board. Still, according to the story, the Phillies told other teams “hey, whatever, go ahead and draft him, he’s going to be good.” Reverse psychology and it worked.

    If the right player falls in their lap, of course they’ll take him, but I’m not necessarily sure I would believe all the hype at this point about which player the team favors most.

    It’s going to be fun.

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  18. JosephWladislaw Says:
    June 5, 2008 at 10:49 am
    Let’s have a draft like Boston did in 2005: Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Bowden and Lowrie. THEN Marti Wolever can talk.

    Problem is, I wonder if this organization can develop any players to enable a team to have a draft like that.

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  19. The problem with not signing your picks in the first two-three rounds is that your players then lose a year of development. This is a major problem that can really come back and hurt the system. Also, from everything that I have read, the 2009 draft is going to be even worst than the ’08 draft. So, we probably want to make our picks count this year…

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  20. I’ve heard chatter about the phils being interested in Kelly, would we pony up? Would he be worth his asking price?

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  21. I have heard that Kelly already has a deal done with a team, thus his outrageous demands… I think it was the Cubs or Yanks.

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  24. hey bob

    2 striaght league mvp’s and a possible 3rd this year along with cole hammels ain’t too bad. and bourne (who is leading the NL in sbs) got us an all star closer. meyers has been very good as well (excluding this year’s troubles). the depth hasn’t been there due to a lack of willingness to spend, which you can’t blame the scouting department for. but the success of top end talent is unlike any in baseball. 3 straight mvps is unheard of.

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  25. Mayo says that the latest buzz is that Philly takes Hewitt if he’s there. Milwaukee apparently is considering Hewitt, Hunt or Jason Castro.

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  26. My first post after lurking for a few months now…From David Murphy’s Phillies Notebook this morning (quoting Wolever):

    “An example is the college pitching board; is there somebody there that will help you and quickly?” Wolever said. “The unfortunate part is when you are picking 24, does that animal even exist? Having said that, there are still a couple of guys that we think might have a chance, maybe not this year but in the next few years, that are very attractive at that point.”

    Does someone who can help “in the next few years” sound like Collier or Hewitt? I don’t think so. However, might just be Phillies misdirection – we’ll see.

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  29. On the bright side, screwing up the #24 pick in the draft is fundamentally different that screwing up the #4 pick in the draft (Jeff Jackson).

    Step 1 of a Phillies fan is recognizing that we are powerless to alter our reality.

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  31. Honestly, how many times have the phillies said We want this guy and actually take him?

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  32. SQUIRE, lol, thats very well put.

    I think at this point, the best thing everyone can do is hope someone takes Hewitt before us. Hopefully Milwaukee or maybe even the Mets.

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  33. From Section 113 – that is a great point. works for all sports drafts. the projections are fun to read and debate, but are right about 5% of the time, and that percentage often includes the top picks. no one had us on savery last year. i don’t even think savery was projected as a first rounder last year. no one had us on drabeck or golson the prior years.

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  34. Actually, people had Drabek lined up in our area the year before, and there was quite a bit written about the work the Phillies did on his off the field stuff, so it wasnt a shock. And Jim Salisbury name dropped Savery in the Q/A I did with him right before the draft last year, though he was projected to go at the back of the 1st round.

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  35. Were we on Cardenas or his buddy Marerro? I am sure I jusrt butchered that guys name.

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  36. Salsibury usually has a batch of names on the day of the draft and the Phillies first pick is usually in the batch – He had Golson 2004 and Savery in 2007. He had D’Arby Myers name in 2006 and I think that he had Costanzo’s name in 2005. Costanzo was thought of as about a one round overdraft so I think the Phillies were pretty confident they were going to get him at 63.

    On the bright side, the Phillies are picking later than they have in a long while which adds greater uncertainty to the #24 options.

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  40. The Phillies had Hewitt in to Philly to visit and I assume work out I have no idea if they liked what they saw.but at least they seem to have done their due diligence The Brewers also had him for a personal workout.

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  41. I’m working from home today, and I’ll be forced to open a beer if it is Hewitt.

    Let’s just see what happens. Oh, and this thread will probably get pretty long today, huh James?

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  42. Yeah. We had almost 7000 hits last year on the first day of the draft, but readership has gone up quite a bit since then, so I expect it to move into 5 digits. Should be fun.

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  44. and trust me, I’d love to be wrong and that Hewitt isn’t the pick. I’m just worried, and I’m equally worried we’re going to waste #34 on Jason Knapp.

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  48. “this coverage is….awkward.”

    Anytime Steve Phillips is talking more than Jim Callis and Keith Law combined, you know you’re in trouble. Still, it’s only the second year they’re doing this live, so it’s better than nothing I suppose (and it can only get better). But they absolutely should let Law play the Mel Kiper role and put a muzzle on Phillips.

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  49. how does a guy like phillips get a job as a “guru”? you are talking about a guy who did one of the worst trades in all baseball.

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  52. Jim Duquette traded Kazmir for V. Zambrano. Still, Phillips didn’t exactly distinguish himself as a premier GM while he was there (see Vaughn, Mo; Appier, Kevin; etc.) The Piazza deal is the only one I remember having a particularly positive impact. And their drafts for most of the late 90s were atrocious.

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  53. Boy — Law has been right on the $$ so far, albeit with a very, very recent mock draft. He has Skipworth going next followed by Beckham and Smoak.

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  55. posey the man…hes legit and was picked by many to go first when did you ever hear of skipworth going first?

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  58. Interesting info from Keith Law there: that none of these teams are being scared off by bonus demands even when they’ve never before given bonuses of that size. Wonder if that’s a trend that will hold up.

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  59. my roomate is posey teamate so i go to many of the games..this guy could hit the ball all over the field. has a better arm. hits 95 when he closes and if catching doesnt work he started as a shortsstop and could play pretty much any other position. plus this guy doesnt go out and party and is down to earth more then any other kid on the team

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  60. James — I am not watching the draft on TV — what are the rules as far as time limit per pick per team. It seems to me that if teams can’t deal picks there shouldn’t be much time necessary in making a given pick. Teams have worked out the guys they are interested in and know which guys are slot guys and which guys want bigger bonuses well in advance of the actual draft, no?

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  61. PhillyFriar — I think we are just seeing the pendulum swing all the way from teams going after big money FAs to populate their team to trying to build completely from within and break slot when necessary to bring in the young players they are most interested in. Verducci wrote an article recently on how that is now the “model” for building a club. It will start moving back towards the middle when enough young big money guys flame out and the know-it-alls start talking about how experience and having “done it” at the major league level is more important again.

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  65. I’m trying not to get my hopes up but with Castro off the board, the Brewers might take Hewitt.

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  67. Kevin Goldstein (12:10:37 PM PT): 10. Astros — Jason Castro, C, Stanford.

    Are you f-ing kidding me? Words can not describe how dumb this is. They just can’t. I’m utterly speechless. At least I get to rip Houston’s drafts once again. I’m rambling to myslef here it total disbelief.

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  68. I think 8-12 is the hardest positions to pick because you have so much talent off the board and sooo much still there its really tough. Top 5 are usually concensus and after #15 you just have what’s left. ANyone else?

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  70. Dan, I didn’t get the chance to finish reading that Verducci article but I know what you’re talking about. I’d rather err toward this side of the pendulum than the other — I know it’s not this simple, but if you don’t spend $3 million to sign Rod Barajas and use that money to sign draft picks instead, it’ll prove to be a far better investment. Even if some of those players flame out, it’s still worth it.

    Nice pick by Texas by the way.

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  73. Weeks is a reach at 12, I believe, but it isn’t a Castro type reach.

    Now, here’s where things start to impact the Phillies. The Twins I think are a candidate to take Hewitt, though I think they will still take Lawrie. After that, we can hope for Milwaukee.

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  75. By the way, how early is the ESPN crew getting wind of these picks? Ravech keeps hinting at who’s going to go when he introduces the commissioner. Like before Skipworth went, he says, “Well we’ve already had one catcher — now here’s the commissioner.”

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  76. A guy like Anthony Hewitt is really scary, because he can’t even hit high school pitching,

    woah woah woah…can’t hit high school pitching?
    Hewitt batted .536 with a HR every 7 at bats!

    I’m sure about his competition, plate discipline or fielding, but Hewitt seems like he can handle high school pitching. Teams are clearly interested in Hewitt for his bat; he certainly isn’t a speed guy. He looks awkward at shortstop, but could be moved to 3B, or if that doesn’t work out, has plenty of power for a corner outfield spot. Also- I don’t remember where I read this, but apparently Hewitt has shown the ability to hit with a wooden bat.

    From PG crosschecker(5/3/08): “Hewitt has the best bat in the Northeast, college or high school, and his other tools play well, too.”

    I sorta see Anthony Hewitt like another Brooklyn native: Manny Ramirez. Hewitt is committed to Vanderbilt, and is considered a tough sign,(by Keith Law) so if the Phils take him, its not to save money.

    Hewitt isn’t my 1st choice, but I think you’re all being a little tough on him. He’s not another speedy CF; he’s a prep hitter with explosive bat speed and a ton of raw power.
    Apparently the Brewers really like him, so I don’t even know if he’ll drop that far…I don’t know about taking Hewitt at #24…but he’d be awfully intriguing at #34…

    As I said, I like the idea of taking prep hitters. If CBP is really a bandbox, lets draft sluggers who can make great offense into a team tradition. Athletic, 5 tool position players are nice, but the tool I’m looking for is the bat. The other tools just allow them to play a position other than 1st base, where their bat has even more value.

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  81. it makes me laugh at how bad selig looks at those telepromters but cant even read them without stutteriing…cant you memorize a couple line every couple minutes

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  88. Kevin Goldstein (12:38:37 PM PT): hyattff2003 (Arlington): Kevin, do you see the Brewers snapping up Friedrich if available (perhaps Shooter Hunt), or going more risky with Lawrie?

    KG: I hear they are leaning against taking the toolsy high school kid, but Hunt is really plummeting and I don’t think they’ll go that way. Friedrich might be the perfect fit here.

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  89. Damn. Brewers take Lawrie. We’re going to take a 19 year old Northeast HS player that can’t hit. I know it.

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  92. Lawrie won’t last at C, hes a 3B as a pro

    Yeah, but it’s not like the phils are flush at 3b prospects either is it?

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  93. Damnit, damnit, damnit. No one takes Hewitt, then the Blue Jays take Cooper. Doesn’t look like the board will set up to give us a polished college hitter before the second round.

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  95. PF — I agree with your assessment re: going the young route vs. signing FAs. It always seems like the Phillies sign guys who have their best years the year after they leave (Franklin and Barajas are two good recent examples).

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  96. The Dodgers taking Ethan Martin as a 3B was a little suprising…especially since they already have so many great prospects at 3B

    btw- Ethan Martin tied Destin Hood(who I’d like at #34, #51 or #71) in the HR Derby at the Aflac Classic (high school All-America game)

    Mets on the clock…

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  100. Cashner and Fields.

    So its Detroit, the Mets and the Padres. The Padres have a 0% chance to take Hewitt. So, if he doesn’t go to the Mets, we’re basically going to be holding our breath for 5 minutes.

    Friedrich and Hunt are still there. Casey Kelly is still there.

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  101. Four names to consider … Gerrit Cole (we can all dream), Christian Friedrich, Josh Fields, and Casey Kelly. Maybe the gods will smile on us, the partners will open up their wallets, and we will take Cole.

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  102. I’d love the Phils to draft Collier, seeing as my 9 month old son’s name is Collier Chase. Collier is a family name, and Chase after Utley, but if this Collier kid gets picked first that would be an awesome coincidence.

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  103. i watched hunt this weekend and he got shelled pretty well…ddint think his stuff was all that dominating

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  104. Ryan Perry. Well, I’m glad to see him gone.

    But I’d say its a near lock we take Hewitt now that Cashner, Fields and Perry are gone.

    Best case scenario is Casey Kelly.

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  110. For what it’s worth a reported scout on the Phillies.com boards, who has been posting there for several years, says that the Phils have serious interest in Kelly. He said they’ve invested a ton of time in scouting and everything on him. He said it would be an absolute “home run” to get this guy drafted and signed, even if the majority of the other picks didn’t work out.

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  115. i will go out on a limb and say that gillick throws us one on his way out and picks and pays for Gerrit Cole. potential top of the rotation guy sitting there.

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  117. I think Reese Havens will catch.

    Most if not all top-flight prep pitching is still available: Odorizzi, Melville, Cole

    ON THE CLOCK!!! woohoo

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  129. same old phillies, HEWITT. How many sellouts in a row have we all given them? why not gerrit cole!

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  138. Screw you Gillick ! Alot of people pay alot of money and support this club and you wont even pony up the cash for the Cole kid.

    What is your obsession with raw sucky ass OF’ers ?

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  139. umm who is this guy…6-8 years away? I guess our farm system is that good that we don’t need guys that AREN”T works in progresses.

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  141. Kevin Goldstein (1:26:43 PM PT): 24. Phillies – Anthony Hewitt.

    This is TOTALLY awesome, as I was told this morning that the Phillies were NOT going to take an athlete, and yet the took the biggest athlete in the draft. Look, this is a total lottery ticket, but the potential payout is unmatched in the draft.

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  142. Any chance there’s a Drabek/Carpenter effect at 34 then? What I mean is: will the Phils now go for more of a “sure thing” type of player (a pitcher, I’d assume) to counteract the boom-or-bust Hewitt?

    Ahh well. I’m sure they love the kid’s makeup, and hopefully when he gets pro coaching he’ll surprise us. But I can’t say I’m terrible excited.

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  143. wow…wow…you guys are gonna be PO’ed

    “off-the charts potential”
    “tremendous raw power”
    “superstar”
    “unlimited power”

    KL just contradicted my “wooden bat” comment, but I’m sure different scouts have different opinions.

    I’m glad I posted that pro-Hewitt comments earlier, just to soften the blow…

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  144. I don’t get it. A guy like Christian Friedrich who is left-handed and can be in the majors in 2 years falls to you at 24 when some people are projecting him at 13, and you pass him up in favor of a 5+ year project who can’t hit. Why?

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  145. anyone taking wagers on how far hewitt makes it up the ladder before he craps out? Lakewood? Clearwater? Batavia?

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  147. I do not know why people are placing the blame on Gillick. If I had to guess, I would say he has very little to do with it. Bit of a let down, but lets see what happens from here on out.

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  153. NEPhilliesPhan: I’d be shocked if Hewitt played anywhere but the GCL given how raw he supposedly is. You might get to see him next year though.

    Baxter: I do take heart from your comments above, and obviously Hewitt’s upside is tremendous. I think many are just a bit pessimistic on the Phillies’ ability to develop a raw hitter like that. But thanks for the glass half full mentality.

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  154. Yeah yeah yeah. My prior statements were based on the prior record. This pick is what it is, and I’m against it – there’s nothing else I can do. Try not to be small.

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  157. I love how almost every team in the league has moved, atleast to some degree, towards sabermetrics or stat based analysis and yet the phillies remain steadfast in their ideology – “Does he look good in a uniform? He does!!!!! Sign him up!!!!! IMMMEDIATELY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    Hey, I hope it works out and the kid is an HOFer, but there is a reason that the kid with the “unmatched” potential didn’t go in the top 5 picks.

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  159. “Try not to be small”

    Try not to only come around these parts when you’re looking to take shots at me and the things I churn out. People like you are a dime a million on the internet.

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  162. ESPN’S mlb draft tracker has Hewitt committed to Vanderbilt and expected to be a tough sign so my bet is Chocoburger is right. way to go phils. who wants to bet that Friedrich gets a call up in September for the Rockies?

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  164. Some of the top high school pitchers will be available at #34, since they’re basically all still on the board.

    Hewitt must have put on quite a show at the Bank…I’m sure Amaro will tell us all about it soon enough.

    Any word on his position? The commish said SS, but I’m thinking 3B.

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  167. I expect an overdraft at 34 that they know they can sign on the cheap.

    And while its really sad to say it, I think the best case is that Hewitt goes to college and we just get a comp pick.

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  172. I know nothing about any of this stuff, something I try to keep in mind on those rare occasions when I chime in. But what sort of burns me up is that the team has shown two real strengths in its developmental approach over the last decade: high school pitchers (Myers, Hamels) and college hitters (Utley, Burrell, Howard, perhaps Donald). What they’ve never done well–through Jeff Jackson to Reggie Taylor to C.J. Henry to, unless you truly believe the light has come on, Greg Golson, is take those ath-a-leets and make them big-time ballplayers.

    Why not at least try to go with your strengths?

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  175. honest question…how many times have the people on this blog who are commenting about hating the hewitt pick seen him in person?

    if a lot of times, then i would be impressed, but my guess is most people are going off of keith law. and with all due respect to keith. if he was really good at analyzing prospects, he would be making big money working for a mlb club.

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  176. Trent, I hope so… we don’t have much time to hire a whole new front office and force the owners to sell the team if they don’t.

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  177. Sorry, no, but I’ve never “looked to take a shot” at you, though I will respond to snide remarks. I have had substantive disagreements with you on certain occasions, but I haven’t been personal, I haven’t called you names, and I’ve explained my views with evidence each time. I will confess to being blunt. You can react to that the way you want, but don’t say things about me that are false.

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  180. PP Fan, Law did work for a MLB club.

    The scouting report on Hewitt is fairly universal. There are no scouts that praise his hit tool. Everyone is saying the same thing.

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  181. So now begins the “Gerritt Cole” rules. From what i’ve seen of this kid he’s probably the 5th best starter in the Yanks system now (including the majors). Really shows how the system is screwed up.

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  182. Friedrich would’ve been my pick…College lefty who has a huge curve, throws 93-94, and has solid command? He’s probably a better prospect than Savery, at a later pick.

    …but I’m not one for prolonged 2nd guessing.

    With so many quality players still available, the Phils must have been 100% committed to Hewitt. They must have REALLY liked him. This sort of unwavering commitment is not made without due diligence.

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  183. PP Fan, I’m sure very few, if any, of us have actually seen Hewitt in person, but our negative reactions are based on facts that even his supporters agree are true – that he’s very raw and inexperienced, and that his stock is based on his athletic ability.

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  184. PP I haven’t seen him once so, by and large, I can only go off what the “experts” say. But I also look at the fact that the 23 teams that picked in front of us passed. If this kid had even a slim chance to reach this “unmatched” potential, don’t you think someone would have picked him up.

    Again, I hope the kid becomes an HOFer, but the Phillies track record with these types of players is absymal. Maybe we are due.

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  185. There NO chance that the kid decides to go to college. He’s a first round pick, and is going to get a bonus of about $1.3 million. What does college have to offer him except the opportunity to LOWER his value (unless he really thinks that he is a top 5 player who will command $5 million is bonus money in a few years)?

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  186. No surprise, unfortunately. He could come cheap (which
    management likes), unless they have to pay him a lot to
    reject Vandy. Phillies love high risk players because they’re
    cheap (relatively).

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  190. look, i am with you guys. that video that they are showing on mlb.com is the worst draft video i have ever seen. i think they show him striking out 2 or 3 times and hitting a grounder. his throws to first are wild too. i was honestly asking myself, is this his highlight video?

    however. gillick and arbuckle have been doing this a long time and have seen this kid play a lot more than any of us. i know that law DID work for a mlb team, but did is the key word. gillick has been doing this for a very, very long time. he has seen it all and been successfull everywhere. if he didn’t have the track record, i would agree with “the scouts”. but i think that it is too early to be disappointed in the pick.

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  191. A question for those who know more about the early history of major leagues:

    What players in the majors now were considered extremely toolsy/raw when they were drafted? What players can Hewitt optimistically compared to?

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  192. NEPhilliesPhan Says:
    June 5, 2008 at 3:52 pm
    Cole to the Yankees makes me want to puke…I’m so sick of the Phillies acting impoverished when they make tons of money.

    —–
    Seriously, what more do we need to do before this team starts acting like a big market team. We are averaging 40K in attendance per game. The TV and merchandise numbers have to be good. Yet we are 13th in payroll and continue to be cheap when it comes to the draft.

    I would like the team to explain what more it is that they want us to do!!

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  193. Only 3 more picks til we’re up again. If we get Shooter Hunt with the comp pick it’ll make my day

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  194. what I’m really disgusted about is the talk or incinuation that the phils would consider going over slot for the right player. Several of them slapped them in the face (Cole, Friedrich) and in the end it was the same old phils.

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  196. I do thoroughly enjoy ripping the Phils on draft day, but while I’m disappointed, I disagree on the player not the philosophy. I’d generally rather take a guy with high potential in the 1st round rather than a guy with a middle-rotation ceiling. Here I just think that Hewitt is too raw overall. However, he is NOT a cheap pick (as I think 3/4 of our top ten was last year). He has a full-ride to Vandy and is not considered to be an easy sign. Let’s just hope the Phils scouts know what they’re doing and aren’t just hoping that his tools could eventually translate to baseball.

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  197. OK! They loved this guy BUT did they really think that someone was going to “STEAL” him before their compensation pick???

    RIDICULOUS!!!!

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  199. I just read somewhere that Arizona had their eye on Hewitt so maybe they felt they had to grab him since he wouldn’t be there at 34.

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  200. Is the “hit” tool separate from power? Hewitt doesn’t seem like much of an all-around player. He looks really awkward turning the double play.

    I know he’s extremely raw, but I just assume his bat is electric…because nothing else could justify this selection

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  201. The spin from the Phillies PR department? That is um, their job? What do you expect from them? I’m kind of disappointed by response here to be honest. Typical Phillies phan phatalism. I’m by no means an organization-all-the-way man, but it seems kind of crazy to get this upset about a kid who has a ton of potential. He might be a bust eh? So might EVERY player in the MLB draft.

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  204. I like taking high ceiling guys too, but this kid is already 19 years old, and it’s going to take him 5 to 7 years to get to the majors. You probably won’t see him at CBP until 2013-2015, when he will be 24-26 years old.

    The window of opportuity with this team is NOW! We need players from this draft who can make an impact in 2009 or 2010.

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  209. JAK32 = Rubern Amaro’s screen name ;^)

    I’m not much of a draftnik, but I’m disappointed in this pick, only because the Phillies have a propensity to draft “athletes.” That’s fine in you’re putting together at track and field team. They should try drafting baseball players instead.

    Drafting a guy who can’t hit. What’s next, drafting a pitcher who can’t throw?

    – Jeff

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  210. Marcel: I disagree. This team has very few positional needs between now and 2011, particularly if you think Marson and Golson can contribute in the next 2 years. They should focusing on the group of players that will succeed Utley, Rollins, Howard, etc. I’m OK with drafting players for 2012 as long as they are the right players.

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  212. Hey, at least they didn’t reach for Knapp.

    I’m certainly no expert, but I’m okay with this pick. I’m thinking this means Knapp and some other arms will come later on.

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  213. so much for getting ANY pitching. Bet the next step is re-signing Eaton to a 6 year extension!

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  215. Yes, because with Cole there take your chances with him instead of an older, extremely unproven bat.

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  216. I believe that Collier has a BETTER chance to be an impact player than Hewitt & sooner!

    TOOLS: we are consistent

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  217. Collier. Yay. Another raw, toolsy guy. We could use a few more athletic outfielders in out system. At least he seems to be less of a risk

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  218. Without trying to sound contrarian I am happy with the draft so far I’d rather have a full rather than an empty toolshed and take my chances

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  219. DeVall to the Braves is disappointing. They’re generally great talent evaluators, especially with their pitching, so I’m legitimately scared by that pick.

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  223. Again without claiming any knowledge of what’s going on here, I sort of like the doubling-down of the athletes. If either guy “hits,” they can legitimately call the draft a success.

    I gather the negatives on Collier are the same, more or less, as for Hewitt?

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  225. TRENT-

    What they passed-up weren’t players with imediate impact potential at catcher or center filed. The passed-up some polished pitchers, who had either the potential to help them soon or could be used to trade for experienced major league pitchers (guys in the GCL or NY-Penn don’t have very much trade value).

    Look if Carlos Carasco , Joe Savery, and Kyle Drabek end up in the rotation by 2010 then I’m making a fuss over nothing. But until they show me that they are quality major league pitchers, I think we need more pitching. And even if they do what is the worst thing that can happen…you have a surplus of pitching and you trade one for a toolsy center fielder who is still in AA.

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  226. But the question is would Hewitt at 34 be a good pick since most everyone was projecting Collier at 24.

    For me, Hewitt/Collier as a package, regardless of order, isn’t bad.

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  229. Yeah, they have similar tools, but Collier has already shown he can hit, and plays in a baseball hotbed. Hes not quite the athlete Hewitt is, and hes been somewhat of a late riser, but he can at least hold his own and has room to grow.

    There are tons of great players left on the board. But after the first two picks, my expectations are very very low.

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  230. I almost feel guilty now, because this draft has essentially followed my 11th hour strategy…lightning batspeed high school players with unlimited potential…I was thinking along those lines for at least 2 of the first 3 picks, with a pitcher mixed somewhere in between. That being said, if they go with Hood at 51, I won’t be upset…

    I assumed this approach was too radical to be realistic, but I guess its what Gillick has always done… The extra picks allowed him to take chances, and you know he likes to take chances. I think he wants Hewitt and Collier to be his legacy with the Phillies. Gillick probably figured: if either/both of them fulfill their enormous potential, fans will thank him for 15 years, but if they don’t, we’ll probably just forget about him anyway…

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  232. I am thinking definite pitcher at 51 but which available arm would you like there?

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  233. I love reading this great blog. I lurk, and read about every day…

    But I think people need to relax a bit. I know the Phils have screwed up with these type of players in the past, but the MLB Draft is the biggest crapshot of any of the major sports drafts. Heck, the best player in the whole draft might be taken in the 15th round…

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  234. I have a problem with the “its a crapshoot” argument, but I’ll address that later.

    Pitcher at 51 is likely, they’ll probably make a big reach and take Jason Knapp.

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  235. Sorry to hear that you believe Melville is not an option. He would make this (to date) draft much more palatable.

    Maybe the Phils will surprise us!

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  239. Dajafi, that’s precisely the same thought I had when the Phils nabbed Collier at 34. And like you, I don’t claim any knowledge of what’s actually going on here.

    I’m still hopeful going forward. Arbuckle said in that article that the Phils wouldn’t be afraid to overpay if they liked someone, so hopefully we won’t see any Tyler Mach-type picks this year. If they avoid those type of picks for the rest of the day, I’ll be reasonably pleased.

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  240. I’ll be interested to see what you have to say about the “crapshoot arguement.” But I think it’ll be hard to argue that baseball isn’t the toughest sport to draft for…

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  241. Another lurker who really enjoys the site. A question, is the draft done for today? I haven’t seen the draft tracker update at all.

    Thanks!

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  242. Knapp’s delivery is terrible and he really struggles with his command/control.

    I love Ross Seaton, I floated his name out a few days ago, hes a Texas guy, where the Phillies seem to like going, so its possible. Signability starts to become an issue now.

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  244. the argument against a crap shoot is that there are some franchises who ruitinely have the best minor leagues. it is as simple as that. if it was truly a crapshoot, then you would see much more parity.

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  245. I like the Collier pick. Don’t see the need for Hewitt with Collier, but I would have been ok with Collier at #24, so he is a great value in my view as comp pick. Seaton would be fine with first 2nd rounder.

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  246. The argument against crap shoot is that far more first and second rounders make the bigs and become stars than guys in later rounds.

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  247. This has been a good draft. Biases aside (and yes, I’m looking at you James), we got two very good prospects. It’s very possible that Hewitt is the next CJ Henry. But how many players that aren’t considered toolsy turn into well above average MLB players? You can get average hitters off the FA pile every year, especially playing in CBP. The Phillies may as well shoot for the moon when drafting hitters.

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  249. This has nothing to do with bias. Find me ONE scout or scouting report that indicates Hewitt can hit a baseball. Just one. Find me one, and I’ll change my tune. I have absolutely zero bias with taking toolsy players, but being able to hit a baseball is pretty much the single most important skill you need, unless you are going to be a pitcher. Collier is toolsy, but he can hit a baseball. I’m fine with him at 34, and Id have been fine with him at 24. Hewitt doesn’t merit the 24th pick. Sure, he might become a superstar, but the odds are stacked against him. They are stacked against all prospects, but against guys who can’t hit? The odds are even longer.

    When there are MUCH better players on the board, it seems really foolish to take a million to one shot on a different guy.

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  251. Kevin Goldstein (3:21:41 PM PT): lbihced (Medford, N.J. ): Kevin, great chat, thanks. Seems like the Phillies have taken the long view with their first two picks,how do you think they did and do the picks make sense to you. Thanks.

    Nobody loves tools more than I, but buy, going back to back with Hewitt and Collier is either a huge mistake or absolute genius. There’s really no in between with those two.

    Considering the Phillies history with drafting this type of player, maybe it makes my disappointment a bit more understandable.

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  253. Where’s that guy who says the Phillies aren’t in love with toolsy position players? We’ve now taken two of them. One a wise pick, one not.

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  261. Good grief. The first line in the scouting report “depending on how he develops”

    When someone has to mention that, you start wondering.

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  262. No, no, no. I am confident the Phillies took this guy as a pitcher. Electric fastball that tops out at 96 from the left side, with a developing breaking ball. I like this pick.

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  263. This feels like the 2002 Eagles draft, when they inexplicably went with Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, and Sheldon Brown. We can only hope this turns out the same: that the Phils have great foresight, and not that they’ve suddenly become obsessed with HS outfielders.

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  264. From ESPN’s profile…

    Ultimate Role: No. 2 starter

    Summary: Gose has stated his preference to go out as a position player, but it’s a mistake because he has become a significantly better prospect as a pitcher. His arm is electric; he whips it through his delivery and sits 92-96 mph with life and tailing action. His curveball is inconsistent and he doesn’t have feel for it, but at its best, it’s sharp with a hard two-plane break. He’s got a mild stab after he separates his hands, and would help himself by staying over the rubber longer, but his arm works well. At the plate, however, he’s gone backwards; he has raw power, but he wraps his bat and takes an all-out swing, rarely getting his hips timed properly. Some team might take him as an outfielder with an eye toward converting him after he struggles for a year or so. He could end up a top-40 or -50 pick if he would agree to go out as a pitcher right now.

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  265. Based on what I’ve read–in the two minutes since I heard the pick–I really hope they see this kid as a pitcher. If they know something about his willingness to take that role, this could be smart.

    PhillyFriar, I think you’ve hit on something very interesting, but the difference between the Eagles in 2002 and the Phillies in 2008 is simply that the Birds already had earned the benefit of the doubt by virtue of hitting with McNabb three years earlier. The Phils… well…

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  267. With all these raw athletes we need more than ever to provide top flight instruction. The Phillies have not been known for this in the past

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  269. I think Gose will be adamant about not wanting to fall out of baseball within 2 years because he can’t hit water if he falls out of a boat. The kid is a pitcher, and if the Phillies do not convert him to being a pitcher within a year, I will stop being a fan.

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  272. Just found this on in a Daily News article:

    “Hewitt worked out for the Phillies on Monday and hit a few bombs – with a wooden bat – that opened the eyes of the scouting department. He said he would welcome the move to third.”

    and

    “Collier is described as being very raw. The 17-year-old hit .450 for Chino Hills (Calif.) High School. Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever said Collier reminds him of Angels outfielder Garret Anderson, a bona fide star who now is in the twilight of his career.

    “He’s a lefthanded hitter with a straight-up approach,” Wolever said. “I think he’ll end up in one of the corners of the outfield, but could play center in a pinch.”

    With two picks down, Wolever headed back to the war room with a bounce in his step.

    “These were two kids we talked a lot about,” he said. “We’ve had a bunch of looks at these kids. We’ve all seen them. We all know what we’re getting. It’s going to take some time, but there’s tremendous upside here.””

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  274. Also, they see Collier as a corner outfielder in the mold of Garret Anderson. Two quick stories are up on philly.com, one for the INQ and one for the DN.

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  275. Hewitt on what it would take ($$) to keep him from Vandy:

    “I don’t know what it would take,” Hewitt, 19, told the Hartford Courant before the draft. “I just know it would have to be a life-changing amount for me and my family.”

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  276. At 71, I do not think the Phils can resist the urge any longer and will take Knapp, we will see. Any other suggestions out there, besides Melville, of course.

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  277. That’s me, Allentown, and I stand by my prior statements. Obviously, I am going to have to take these new facts into account going forward. That said, the Phillies have not taken a disproportionate number of tools-oriented players with high picks over the last 5-10 years or so.

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  282. James is probably at the bar now. I still dislike Knapp, however, at least we took him at 71 and not 34. That is reason to be happy, right?

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  285. Correction, I like Gose as a pitcher, not an OF, and it appears he only wants to play OF.

    So thats 3 really raw OF and 1 raw NE pitcher with terrible mechanics. What a haul so far.

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  287. atleast were taking Highschoolers with potential rather then a bunch of low ceiling college guys

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  288. Dajafi: exactly. The Phils haven’t exactly done a lot with the Draft to get us to trust them (Utley, etc. won’t gain my trust when they continue to take low-ceiling players who sign for below slot).

    I certainly hope Gose is a pitcher or else it seems like a waste. As for Knapp… well, just add the lottery ticket to the pile we’re building up from this draft.

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  289. don’t you get the feeling that the phillies LOVE this draft of theirs? they can’t believe they got hewitt and collier and were uber excited knapp was still around for them at 71, and are jumping around and high fiving. were there no toolsy guys available at 71? i have no idea how i feel about this, but i may have just thrown up in my mouth a little.

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  290. I dont know if I can do a recap tonight, I just checked and I only have 22 bottles of wine in my wine fridge. Not sure I’d be medicated enough to write anything of substance about this trainwreck.

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  291. Haha it’s alright James, take a day and see if it looks any better with a day’s worth of perspective. The silver lining I see is that the Phils are piling up lottery tickets, though I have the same feeling that they’re buying the wrong kind of lottery tickets.

    Seaton’s still on the board, so maybe we could have some good news…..

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  292. some possitive thoughts….the best two prospects in our system are a 4th rounder (marson) and a FA (Carrasco)

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  293. Aren’t they going to have to open the wallet to get some of these guys to sign? Thats a step forward if they spend money maybe on the wrong guys but it may dwell good for the future.

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  296. Worley is a reliever as a pro, IMO. We drafted him in the 20th round in 2005.

    So many better players on the board, so this appears to be the “cheap sign” pick. Not a big surprise.

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  298. and the Phils are take a college pitcher. at least Vance Worley went to a highly rated college program….

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  299. He’s kind of like Andrew Carpenter in terms of stuff, with a slightly better fastball. But hes had arm issues, and if they use him as a starter, he seems like a 4A player. As a reliever, he might have some use.

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  300. The funny thing is, the guy drafted directly after Worley, Aaron Weatherford, is a legit 8th inning reliever, probably even a closer as a pro, with a devastating splitter.

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  303. James, last yr Gils and Ruby took pitchers at this point that were college touted prospects and offered them over slot loot (except the guy who went to texas).

    is this the point where they do this?? cause they’ve gone pitching w the last 4 picks

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  305. I’ll give these kids the benefit of the doubt. All the Phillies 1st round picks 1996-2004 are currently starting in the major leagues. The jury’s still out 2005-, but plenty of franchises have worse drafting records than the Phillies.

    They drafted poorly in the 80s and early 90s, but over the past decade, the Phillies drafted the best lineup in baseball and solid #1 and #2 starting pitchers. There’s some room for improvement on the development side, but I think their recent selections have been solid.

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  306. thats CHASE d’ARNAUD to the Pirates for those of you who aren’t watching this online…

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  307. I guess they might be trying that. I don’t know. I honestly don’t. I’m sitting here desperately trying to understand this draft. And I think I understand, but it horrifies me.

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  308. does the fact (from what i read on other publications etc) and not that im anywhere in your league, could the confusion and lack of top top prospects, and college positoin players (not 1b/3b) have anything to do with the ALL OVER THE PLACE draft??

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  314. While righthander Trevor May is the top prospect in the state, the bulk of the top players in Washington were position players. May stood out from the crowd for showing a three-pitch mix and solid velocity. He got scouts excited by flashing 92 mph early (with some reports of 94), then settled into the 87-90 range more consistently, and in general was better early in the season. His curveball was his best pitch and could be above-average in the future as he adds power. He has a feel for throwing it for strikes or burying it as a chase pitch. May’s arm works well, though he has some maintenance in his delivery, making it difficult for him to repeat. He’s rangy and has decent athletic ability. He was asking for first-five-rounds money to keep him from going to Washington, and a team that got him crosschecked on a good day could take him as high as the third round.

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  315. you KNEW that GILS and gang would go after a kid from Washington state. its his M.O…

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  317. The report provided indicates NO. BUT this is what the phils did last yr w (I believe) Julian Sampson. they will pay over slot if they have too.

    the only player from last yr the didnt sign (unless im mistaken) is BRANDON WORKMAN who wanted at least 1st round $$$$ and opted for U of TEXAS instead.

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  318. I don’t think he’ll be an “easy” sign, but I think he will sign. They’ll probably offer him comp round money or close to it, between $400-500K.

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  319. Keith Law should like the Phillies draft…

    5 of the Phillies selections cracked Law’s top 75 list.(6/5/08)

    5! In (his) order- Collier, Gose, Hewitt, Knapp, Worely…

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  320. Hamilton is a great defensive 1B, he’s basically the complete opposite player Ryan Howard is. Not a lot of power, doesn’t strike out a whole lot, and great defensively.

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  323. I like the Hamilton pick. Unfortunate that he’s limited to 1B, but it sounds like he can really hit (which is more than can be said for a few of the Phils’ early picks).

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  326. James-
    I actually feel bad that you devote so much time to a great site (and have such a passion for our Phils) that revolves largely around one day-today. I’ll be honest, I don’t follow these guys they drafted-or any of them for that matter-but it seems like the same old, same old with this organization. It’s no wonder the team has won one World Series. And here’s what you said in an earlier post “And while its really sad to say it, I think the best case is that Hewitt goes to college and we just get a comp pick.”
    Maybe somebody else brought this up, but here’s my theory: with what, seven picks in the first 140, the Phils don’t want to pay that many guys so they draft a guy with a high ceiling, questionable projectability, difficult signability and let him take his scholarship.

    Put it another way: if this was the NFL or NBA where you could trade your picks, with that many picks in the top 140, I’d bet a year’s worth of mortgage payments and my left nut that they would have moved a pick or two in that group to avoid paying all of them. So what’s their next best option? Do what they did today. Clowns.

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  327. I’m happier with the draft now than I was after the Hewitt pick but its quite the high-risk strategy with all these tools guys. I will love the Gose pick if they convince him he’s a pitcher…I think he has the stuff to be somethign special. If the Phillies are actually able and willing to sign all these guys, then this draft could be success.

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  328. Hewitt ain’t gonna sign. His comments earlier today basically screamed “I want more than slot!”. He’ll go to Vandi and come back out in a couple years.

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  329. a lot of us were saying some of these same things last year: or mainly, they took guys knowing they’d be tuff to sign et etc..

    well they signed all but one guy (yeah some say he was the top guy of the group) in the top 30 picks. thats not soo bad AND they even went over slot on some of those occassions.

    now while our organization is still the “same ole phils” with Gillick they have changed some may say slightly some may say considerably…..

    they went UPSIDE with the 1st two picks– there’s no arguing here and then all pitching until they got that 1B. maybe w recent luck, they feel that their farm system is a better place to develop pitching than college (the braves almost draft exclusively HIGHSCHOOLERS).

    and with the (apparent) way that their last couple of prospects have come thru– I cant argue against this alteration.

    Im not saying they drafted the correct guy at 24, or anywhere else– I HAVEN’T GOT A CLUE. All i have on my brain is JEFF JACKSON and GAVIN FLOYD.

    but their recent prospects have shown promise, whether 1st or 5th round picks– and thats not something that i can remember saying 7 yrs ago…

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  330. Colby Shreve- a RH pitcher w 96mph stuff. if it makes anyone feel better– THE BRAVES drafted him in the 7th round last year

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  333. LOL…exactly. I remember being pissed at the Phillies for not signing Drew but in the long-run it was probably for the best with all his injury issues.

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  335. The Sport Savant —
    Actually, we were saying exactly the opposite last draft. They picked a lot of college seniors, including a 5th year senior, in the first 10 rounds. These were easy signs. On draft day, the Phillies picks looked well above average on signability. Only Workman didn’t sign and the word at the time was that he was signable right after the draft for around 2006 slot $. Phillies low-balled with the 10% 2007 deduct, most teams didn’t, and then Workman seemed to up demands as summer progressed. One of our easy signs, Tyler Mach, has even retired already. Strange for a 4th round pick. He signed well below slot, by the way.

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  337. I just watched Shreves tape over at MLB.com and he sat 92-93 on his FB but hit 96 a few times. His offspeed stuff is a bit wild and his delivery is very rough at times. He does this falling off the mound to his left on his follow through that looks a bit out of control. He could be good though.

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  338. touche’ ALLENTOWN!! lol — and as usual, a “loosely scripted” post on my part is destroyed by the #s.

    obviously the college srs are easiest (aren’t they) to sign, then JRs,

    H/S are the tuffest w those college scholarships in hand. its is usually there that the phils will go above slot. regardless, tremendous post on your part.

    anyone know how our boy workman did at UT this yr??

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  339. Shreve had TJ surgery May 14 or 15, for those who did not know that.

    He’ll be a tough sign. I’d say 30% chance they sign him.

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  340. Thanks, Savior. That explains why his velocity got up to 96 this year but he only jumped up a round. I know TJ surgery is far more routine now than it used to be, but picking a tough sign who just had major surgery two weeks ago seems like an odd move.

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  341. It may be an odd move but if he recovers and signs hes a steal… But why would he sign if he can recover and show off his stuff even more which could earn him more money?

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  342. Bergeraj- You should ask Scott Mathieson why.

    If Shreve never recovers he’ll never get signed. Signing now is the only guaranteed way he’ll ever get a bonus. Its a gamble he’ll have to weigh I suppose.

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  345. Article describing Jonathon Pettibone, sounds like what we expected from Julian Sampson. Also read somewhere that he led his league in strikeouts.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/highschool/news/263750.html

    “Jonathan Pettibone worked a scoreless seventh inning for a save in Esperanza’s first-round win against Riverside High (Greer, S.C.), then scattered six hits and three earned runs over seven innings in the third round versus Palm Beach Central. His fastball was up to 91 mph, and his stuff and frame are projectable.”

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  346. By the way, when I refernece Sampson, I mean a 6’5″ RHP, who’s expected to add some velocity as his frame fills out.

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  347. It’s quite incredible for some fans to be so conclusive about something that is totally unpredictable, even by the people who know. The worst that can be said is that the Phillies drafted several players who were highrisk/highreward types. Depending on the day for some of the “evaluators” on this site that’s a good thing or a bad thing. I love this draft, and so will the bloggers who depend on traffic by tracking highly talented, interesting and potentially impactful players. I won’t try to contrast the reaction from last year over how “safe” our draft was.

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  349. I am not so sure of how good a job Arbuckle has done with this farm system. We have no prospects at all at Triple A. Not even Happ qualfiies.

    Reading is falling apart. Bastardo has come on hard times. Carrasco has never proven to be anything but a very long and distant “maybe”. He got shelled tonight. He is going on 22, in his second year at Reading and he still puts way too many people on base to be a quality prospect.

    Carpenter has gone back to Clearwater. Castro is not a major league starter. Donald is at best a bench player. Even Golson who has some talent has some very bad habits ala Ryan Howard. Too many K’s. He doesn’t have a good idea of the strike zone and he is 22 now with a few years in the system, two at Reading.

    Other than Lou Marson, who else is there that I can expect to see in Philadelphia and time in the near future?

    Clearwater has some interesting people. Savery has taken a step back so we’ll have to wait and see what happens with him. But Garcia is a maybe showing some improvement. Same with Monasterios who may be better than we think.

    Brummet did well at Lakewood but he is older with some college so maybe he just was ahead of them. Now he has to prove himself at Clearwater. Can he? I hope so but only time will tell.

    Cardenas is a genuine position prospect so that’s Marson and Cardenas (2 positions where we don’t need help) and MAYBE Golson if you don’t mind another 150 K’s in the lineup. that’s about it.

    That’s from over 50 drafees a year plus some free agents.
    Over three years, that’s 50 new players pushing from the button up each year, 150 players. We should be doing much better than we are.

    At Lakewood, I think Drew Naylor and Chance Chapman should be promoted to Clearwater so we can see what if anything they have at a higher level. They are outclassing Lakewood. Same with Michaels. Movce them up. Give them some rope and lets see if they hang themselves with it or use it to climb up the ladder. Time to say “put up or shut up”. this endless coddling is like salesmen who never “ask for the order” so they can keep ‘prospects’ on their books. The Phillies seem to want to play CYA so they keep bouncing these kids around even after it’s clear they have no real major league potential.

    But the big team is okay so maybe they can win us something.

    I don’t like to be negative but I am glad the major league team is pretty set. They can’t be looking down at the farm system for much help.

    Oh yes, Howard is getting tiring with all those ridiculous K’s. He swings at almost anything and hits almost nothing.
    How about this? Remembering the arbitration bitterness and anticpating more of the same next year, they trade Ryan, sign Burrell (12.5M), and move Pat to 1st base. They get a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher for Ryan and go with Jenkins, Victorino, Werth, Dobbs and Ichio and maybe a free agent or – if you want to take the chance – Greg Golson in the outfield next year.

    It could happen.

    joey

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  350. It appears that the Phillies have made a significant change in their draft strategy from recent years. The first 8 rounds high school / total numbers

    2004 – 2/8
    2005 – 2/8
    2006 – 3/8
    2007 – 3/8
    Today – 5/8

    This to me would indicate a trend away from low projectible, easy sign players. However, they have yet to sign them.

    Sorry to be a ray of sunshine to this group that is so eager to bash the Phils.

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  351. Shreve was a good pick. The odds of the average 6th rounder making it in the bigs (other than a guy who fell for signability reasons) is quite small. Certainly less than that of a talented guy like Shreve recovering from TJ and making it to bigs. I am concerned about Phillies rehab program. The abysmal recoveries from TJ by Mathieson and Segovia are red flags.

    cgcrick — yes, a big turnaround from last season, when we had two college seniors in first 8 picks and a 5th year senior with 9th. One already retired. I don’t think folks are bashing the draft in general or the focus on HS talent, just not happy with our first pick, who is very raw compared to your average HS first-rounder and a real, real long shot.

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