Ok. So I debated just waiting to give my thoughts on today’s picks until the draft was finished, but then I wouldn’t get anything up on the site till next week, and I didn’t want to do that, so I figured I’d give my initial thoughts now, then I’ll do a bit more next week and touch on the second day of the draft and my overall impressions. First, I want to thank everyone for visiting (over and over again, I’m sure) as we set a new record for single day hits, well over 13,000, far doubling the previous high, which was a year ago on draft day. Second, I appreciate all of the comments and feedback, it was a blast to follow the draft here and get everyone’s thoughts as it happened, and there was certainly a wide array of opinions. I feel like I just need to continue to state it, just so I’m clear. I’m not here to be a cog in the Phillies PR machine. I’m not affiliated with the Phillies, and I’m not affiliated with any other site, despite efforts by other sites to incorporate me into their setup. My opinion is my own, its based on the things I see and read, and its just that, my opinion. I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with me, and I’m open to every opinion possible, as long as that opinion is backed up with something of substance. The reality of right now is, we won’t really know what these players will provide for 1-5 years, we’re just guessing and going with our initial gut reaction. But all of that said, its still fun. So, lets get to it.

I’m going to try to be succinct and not go off on too many tangents. Not only did I spend all day reading and preparing for the draft, I also was playing phone tag/yelling at Verizon for much of the day, which only added to my frustrations. If a few of my comments were hasty today, that’s probably the reason why. Going into this draft, I had somewhat high hopes, but ultimately, I still expected to be disappointed. What I look for in prospects and what the Phillies seem to look for is generally much different. I was critical of last year’s draft class (for which I was ridiculed, to a degree), and in general, I’ve been very critical of the Phillies handling of the draft from a financial standpoint. I don’t want this to turn into a debate over slot vs not busting slot so I’ll try to stay focused. Knowing what I know about the Phillies draft history, and going from the draft rumors/buzz, I expected a lot of reaches and questionable picks, as well as some cheap sign picks to balance the ledger sheet. There were a few surprises along the way, and there could be more tomorrow. I’ll go pick by pick, and then give my general overall thoughts to wrap things up. If you want bios of the players, or scouting reports, you can find all of that here, and I’ll try to add videos later, but you can always use the draft tracker at MLB.com to search for the videos as well..

24. Anthony Hewitt, SS (Salisbury School, CT)

Well, really what can you say here that hasn’t been said. The Phillies were linked to Hewitt a few weeks ago, and from Day 1, it seemed like a Phillies type pick. When you pick near the end of the first round, and you adhere to the slotting bonuses the Commish institutes, you’re really at the mercy of the board and the players taken ahead of you. At 24, the Phillies really had two options; take a lower ceiling college player, or take a toolsy, risky high school player. I don’t have a real problem going the latter route, but the problem is, they took a player that didn’t make a lot of sense, considering the board. We’d heard that they really liked Casey Kelly. Most publications had Kelly ranked higher than 24th, and a lot of mock drafts had him going in the 10-20 range. Wolever commented how the Phillies loved the two sport guys because of their athleticism and what they can bring to the table. It seemed like a perfect fit. Instead, the Phillies took Hewitt. Hewitt, as you may have read, has trouble hitting a baseball. Well, thats probably going to be a problem. No one questions his athleticism and raw physical tools. But the Phillies aren’t training for a decathlon, they are attempting to win baseball games, and unless you’re a pitcher, you should probably be able to hit a baseball. The Phillies are of course talking about how great he was in their private workouts, but the reality is, he’s older than most every high school player being taken, and hes played against inferior competition during his school season. On the showcase circuit last summer, he was horrid and most every evaluator is questioning whether or not he will be able to hit at all, let alone hit professional breaking balls.

Pros; Hewitt has massive tools, in case you haven’t heard. He can run, he has great power potential, and he should be able to play a premium position, whether it be SS, CF, or 3B.

Cons; Everything else? His baseball instincts appear to be very unrefined, he’s already 19, he hasn’t played against good competition, and most troubling, when he has faced quality pitchers, he’s basically done nothing at all. He’s Greg Golson, but 20 times more raw than Golson was when drafted. Its a scary scary thought.

Overview; Is this the worst pick of the round? Actually, no, I think Jason Castro to the Astros was downright stupefying. But is this a good pick? All things considered, I don’t think it is. If Hewitt makes it, you could be looking at a Ken Griffey Jr type player. But the odds of him making it are extremely remote, and if he does make it, it will likely be 5-6 years from now, meaning his career will be shorter than “toolsheds” like Justin and BJ Upton.

34. Zach Collier, OF (Chino Hills HS, CA)

Collier was the guy the Phillies were heavily linked to at 24, so I’m sure they were jumping for joy when he was there at 34. Collier is similar to Hewitt, in that he’s oozing with potential but is miles and miles away from his potential. The difference is, Collier is 2 years younger and has been playing in one of the biggest baseball states in the country. He wasn’t a showcase superstar prior to this year, but he had a great spring, and he’s shown some present power. Collier is probably similar to Dominic Brown in what he is going to be projected to be. He might develop 20 HR power, he might be able to swipe 30 bags, and he should stick in either CF or RF. He’s a premium athlete (not quite the athlete Hewitt is), and at 34, he was a fine pick.

Pros; Great value at 34, as he was projected by many to be a first round pick. He has tons of tools and was ranked as the 2nd best power prospect among all prepsters by BA. He’s played against solid competition and held his own

Cons; Like Hewitt, he’s miles away from the big leagues, and is likely going to spend 2 seasons in short season ball. He’s not as raw as Hewitt, but he’s also far from polished, and its going to require a lot of patience to allow him to develop.

Overview; I like the pick. I’d have been fine with him at 24, all things considered, so I can’t be anything but happy with him at 34. I would have rather gone with a pitcher here, there were a bunch of intriguing names available, but this pick works for me.

51. Anthony Gose, LHP/OF (Bellflower HS, CA)

When I saw this pick come up, I got really excited….but that excitement quickly disappeared when I realized the Phillies announced him as an OF. I had Gose projected to Boston in one of my early mock drafts at #30, and as a LHP, he has one of the most intriguing packages available. He’s had some arm issues, but he’s also dialed it up to 96 mph from the left side, and his velo would have to be a 70-75 on the scouting scale. However, it appears he wants to be an OF, and I’m sure the Phillies would not have taken him here if they didn’t understand what it would take to sign him. As an OF, his best tools are his arm and his speed, and there are already questions about whether he’s going to be able to hit as a pro. Does that sound familiar at this point? As a potential flame throwing lefty, he’d be an awesome pick. As an outfielder, albeit a plus defending RF, he seems like a really long shot, down there in Collier territory.

Pros; Gose has massive arm strength, maybe the best of any prepster in the draft. You can try to clean up mechanics, or teach a changeup, but you can’t teach the raw power he generates from the left side. As a position player, he has great speed, and obviously his arm profiles well in RF.

Cons; Already has a fairly worrying injury docket, his hit tool is in serious question, and his secondary pitches are far from finished products. His delivery needs some work, it doesn’t seem like a huge deal, but because of his small frame, as well as drawing Scott Kazmir comps, scouts already think hes a reliever.

Overview; Gose had legit Top 50 talent, was ranked 53 overall by BA, and could be a great pick here. Then again, if he wants to play the OF and not pitch, and the Phillies go that route, his odds greatly drop. If the Phillies get him to pitch and they can harness his stuff, they could have found a legit #2 SP here, and at worst, a possible closer. This is a good value pick in the 2nd round if they can sign him and if he develops on the mound.

71. Jason Knapp, RHP (North Hunterdon HS, NJ)

Everyone knew the Phillies loved Knapp prior to the draft, with some indicating he might go as high as 34. Again, they must have been doing cartwheels to grab him at 71. Color me unimpressed, as I don’t really care for his delivery, and he has control/command problems because of said delivery. Will the Phillies clean it up? There’s no doubting his arm strength, he can bring it consistently at 93-94 and hit 96, but his secondary stuff isn’t there, and the durability has to be questioned because of the delivery. Pitching in the Northeast, he’s played less, which helps limit innings on his arm, but also makes it harder to really evaluate what he can do.

Pros; Like Gose, he has great arm strength. 92-94 consistently is nothing to sneeze at, and if they can smooth out his delivery, his projectable frame might even make 93-96 consistently a possibility.

Cons; His delivery, his secondary stuff, and the fact that he hasn’t really pitched against good competition. He’s committed to UNC, but I think its a near lock that he signs.

Overview; I think everyone kind of expected Knapp to be taken by the Phillies, so like Hewitt, this doesn’t come as a surprise. If the Phillies can fix his deficiencies, they should have a quality arm here. At 71, he’s much easier to accept than at 34.

102. Vance Worley, RHP (Long Beach State)

After taking 4 straight high school players, you knew the safe, cheap pick was coming soon, and this was the pick. The Phillies took Worley in the 20th round in 2005, so they obviously know all about him. As a starter at Long Beach State he’s struggled, mainly because none of his pitches are true plus offerings. He can dial it up into the 92-94 range, but not consistently, and his secondary offerings are merely average or below. His command isn’t very good, and because of it, he’s struggled against good competition. Because he didn’t have a great junior year, and because the Phillies obviously know all about him, I have to think he was contacted before the draft and a deal was in place for slot or less, and this pick will probably compensate for the 4 high school guys taken ahead of him.

Pros; He does have a good fastball when he locates it, and the potential has always been there. If he’s moved to the pen, he could be a good setup guy if he can at least turn one of his secondary pitches into a plus or near plus offering.

Cons; For a Top 100 pick, he doesn’t offer a ton of upside. If they let him start, to me, he’s Andrew Carpenter, with a ceiling of a 5th starter. If his secondary stuff doesn’t improve at all and he can’t refine his command, its hard to see him as anything more than a middle reliever.

Overview; The pick makes sense in the grand scheme. My hope is that the Phillies move him to the pen, scrap his changeup and 2 seamer, and let him focus on commanding his fastball and curve. If he can do that, he could be a future 7th/8th inning reliever, and he could move quickly.

109. Jon Pettibone, RHP (Esperanza HS, CA)

This pick kind of caught me off guard. Pettibone wasn’t on my radar, I knew very little about him, and BA didn’t even rank him among their 176 California draft prospects. He has a USC scholarship waiting for him, so he won’t just be a cheap sign. I really have no info on him, so I’m not in a position to really give a detailed evaluation just yet. For now, this pick is an N/A for me.

Pros; He’s a tall, projectable righty

Cons; He wasn’t even among the top 175 prospects in his state?

Overview; He may or may not suck? Riveting analysis, right?

136. Trevor May, RHP (Kelso HS, WA)

May was kind of a surprise, but he was the top rated prospect in Washington state this year, and he does offer some intriguing traits. He is another projectable righty, the Phillies calling card, and he’s flashed above average stuff, though he has been inconsistent. The Phillies went to Washington last year for Julian Sampson, and while his results haven’t been good, the Phillies are happy with their investment, and may be developing a level of trust with their Northwest area scout. BA mentions that May wants “First five rounds money” to bypass his scholarship to Washington, and it would seem that he might be a guy they can offer $400K to and buy out of college. Seems like a decent risk here.

Pros; Projectable righty, potential for 3 solid average pitches, and if he can smooth his delivery, he could add even more velocity.

Cons; Still raw, has a commitment to a good college program, and his delivery needs some work to prevent future arm trouble.

Overview; I like that they are gambling on high school players at this point and not taking this year’s version of Tyler Mach. May wasn’t on my radar, but from what I’ve read and seen, he’s an intriguing guy and if he signs, will be a nice addition.

166. Jeremy Hamilton, 1B (Wright State)

Hey, I like this pick. Hamilton is kind of an odd player, in that he’s not your prototypical 1B, and he’s very different from most of the 1B who went high in the draft. Unlike guys like Ike Davis and David Cooper, Hamilton’s calling card is his solid defense and his ability to hit for average, not power. He’s a gap to gap type hitter, and he can pick it at 1B with the best of them, considered possibly one of the best defensive 1B in the entire draft. Of course, he gets downgraded because he’s probably not going to hit 30-40 HR in the majors, and thats what teams are generally looking for at 1B.

Pros; Great defender at 1B, and he has a very discerning eye, drawing more walks than strikeouts this season. He’s also a solid hitter for average, hitting over .400 this season.

Cons; Does not profile to hit for much power, at the absolute highest power position on the diamond. This is a shortcoming that probably gets overrated by many people, as I think each team’s need at each position is different.

Overview; A somewhat surprising pick here, a college guy, but he has at least 2 plus tools (defense, batting eye), so its a pretty decent pick and helps to offset some of the potentially expensive picks before him.

196. Colby Schreve, RHP (CC of Southern Nevada)

As odd as it may sound, this is my favorite pick of the first day for the Phillies. Schreve, for those who don’t know, had Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago. He was pitching at a junior college and was looking like one of the top JuCo players in the country, and possibly a late first round pick. He went in the 8th round to Atlanta last season and didn’t sign, instead opting for Junior College. Now the Phillies grab him in the 6th round, which to me is really interesting. Schreve is going to miss an entire season, and it seems almost obvious that the Phillies talked to him prior to the draft to get a number that it would take to sign him. He’s not going to get $1M like he might have had he not gotten hurt, and if you’re in his shoes, at this point you might start to strongly consider signing, as recovery from Tommy John surgery is not a given. Schreve has potential 1st round talent, and now has a major arm surgery under his belt. If the Phillies did their homework prior to the draft and have the number it will take, and they are willing to meet that price, I love this pick.

Pros; A 94 mph fastball, a great slider, and big time potential going forward. No one has questioned the arm strength or stuff, it all centers on his mechanics and health

Cons; Obviously Tommy John surgery is a big con. His delivery needs to be corrected, or at least smoothed out a bit, but the raw talent is there.

Overview; Getting a potential Top 40 talent at 196 is a big plus. Signing that talent is the next step. The Angels gave Nick Adenhart $700K in 2004, allowed him to rehab for an entire year after TJ surgery, and reaped the benefits. Schreve has a scholarship to Arkansas, but BA mentions he is signable if he gets an above slot bonus. Will $500K keep him away from school? It could be a big time win, or a big time loss.

So, there you have the pick by pick commentary, now for some overview type stuff.

* The Phillies had 9 picks through 6 rounds, and they took 6 high school players, 2 college guys and 1 JuCo guy. While you’d instantly think this is great, it is and it isn’t. For a team that is willing to pay over slot bonuses to land premium talent, taking a split like this might be beneficial. But the Phillies still have one of the weakest systems in baseball, and if they are unable to sign multiple picks here, it will be talent squandered. Schreve, May, and Pettibone will not garner compensation picks next year if they don’t sign, and it seems like the Phillies need to get at least 2 of the 3, preferably May and Schreve, or they’ll have left a lot of talent on the board.

* Passing on Casey Kelly at 24 is my single biggest complaint of the first day. My dislike of Hewitt is well documented, theres no real need for me to harp on it, and trust me, I’m not going to bring it up if he hits .143 in his debut in the GCL. The Phillies passing on Kelly is likely directly related to his bonus demands, but I think its almost a lock that the Red Sox will pony up and pay him to keep him away from Tennessee.

* Someone mentioned today that the “entire draft is a crapshoot”, so we shouldn’t criticize the picks made and we should just trust Gillick, Arbuckle and Wolever and just assume they know what they are doing. Those three guys have been in the industry for a while, they’ve made tons of successful picks and tons of bad picks, but because they have more experience than me, it doesn’t mean they will always be right, and just saying “well its a crapshoot anyway” doesn’t hold water. Yes, the draft is an inexact science. But if it were truly a crapshoot, everyone in baseball would have a very similar farm system and very similar amounts of talent. But its not a crapshoot, and its not random. Every year, the same teams seem to have strong/weak drafts, regardless of where they pick in the draft. Whether its because of money spent, or just better scouting, these picks are not random, and they aren’t a crapshoot. To me, there is a really simple way of looking at it. Say every player starts with a 100 to 1 shot of making it to the majors. And then say that each player has a different value, we’ll use “stars” as a ranking, of his overall potential impact in the majors. A guy like Anthony Hewitt has “5 star impact” potential. If everything falls into place, he could be a superstar. But his odds of making it aren’t 100 to 1, they are more like 1000 to 1. Why? because he’s extremely unrefined. Then you have a guy like, say, Christian Friedrich. Friedrich is probably only a 3 star type player in the majors, he’s likely only a #3 or #4 starter on a very good team, maybe a bit more on a mediocre team. But his odds of making it to the big leagues are far better than 1000 to 1, maybe hes a 50 to 1 shot to make it. So how do you weight a 1000 to 1 shot of getting a 5 star guy against a 50 to 1 shot of getting a 3 star guy? Are the two extra stars worth the massively longer odds? For a team with deep pockets and a deep system already loaded with talent, taking risks on guys like Anthony Hewitt makes all the sense in the world. For a team with a thin farm system, and a poor track record of developing high school hitters, the same risk doesn’t look nearly as smart.

—> In summary; I don’t hate the first day. If the Phillies sign all 9 picks, then I think they’ve got at least an average draft, and probably a lot more. Hewitt and Collier could be all stars, or they could never make it past Clearwater. Gose, if he pitches, could be the next Scott Kazmir, or he could get stuck in Lakewood as an OF that can’t hit. Knapp I don’t have high expectations for, but at 71, I won’t cry over him. Worley, if moved to the pen, could be an asset, I like the Hamilton pick, and if May and Schreve are signed, I think that has to be considered a major plus.

The value of this draft is going to be tied to signing those 9 picks, as well as finding a few decent relievers in the next 10 rounds and possibly taking a flier on 1 or 2 more promising arms. I expect to see a lot of organizational filler from rounds 15-30, but thats not surprising. For a thin system, Hewitt + Collier + Knapp + Gose in the Top 100 is a huge risk, and probably too huge for me, but if they hit on 2 or 3 out of the 4, in 5 years people will say this one of the best drafts not only of the year, but of the last few years.

We’ll be back tomorrow for day 2. If there are typos above, you’ll have to forgive me, I’m thoroughly exhausted.