Well, its that time. Tomorrow is draft day, and that means its time for my final mock draft. You can see version 2.1 here and version 1.1 here. For the last mock draft I put out (2.1), I tried to base my projections mainly off of draft trends, and not really focusing on the latest rumors, as I think track record is generally more important when considering who will go where. Now that we’re only a few days away from the draft, I’m going to take those track records as well as the latest rumors into consideration and try to give my absolute best guess. I’ll go through the first 34 picks, which would cover the Phillies compensation pick. I think trying to guess after the first round is pretty nearly impossible, as the talent dropoff begins and the signability factor, which few of us really have a handle on, becomes a big issue. So, lets get started….

But first, a few general thoughts and comments

* I’m going to go under the assumption that the list of teams that break slot will not be radically different from last year. The Pirates are indicating they will take a top player and not go cheap, but I don’t think that means they will necessarily go for the biggest bonus and take Pedro Alvarez. Also, I won’t put a guy like Eric Hosmer, who wants more than slot, to a team like Florida who doesn’t have a history of going over slot. Could it happen? Sure, anything can happen, and there will likely be surprises, but I want to try and be as close to the trends as possible.

* I’m again going to focus mainly on track records as well as incorporating the latest buzz. In some cases, my pick will deviate from what other experts are predicting, but no one is going to get 30 out of 30 picks right, thats part of the fun. If one big pick goes in a different direction, it could obviously throw off all of the rest. In cases where there is no clear trend, I’ll lean heavier on the rumors circulating. But its all for fun anyway.

For each pick, I’ll give the current pick and then the previous two picks I made for that team in previous mock drafts. It should be simple to follow. Lets get started.

1.1 TAM – Tim Beckham, SS (Griffin HS, Georgia) [2.1 = Beckham, 1.1 = Beckham]

I’ve taken Beckham in both mock drafts before, and nothing has convinced me that Tampa will take anyone else. Everyone was on the Buster Posey bandwagon here, and Posey might still be the pick, but I just think Beckham is the guy here.

1.2 PIT – Buster Posey, C (Florida State) [2.1 = Justin Smoak, 1.1 = Eric Hosmer]

Tampa is supposedly choosing between Posey and Beckham, and while I think Pittsburgh wants to make a statement, I don’t think they will ante up for either Alvarez or Hosmer. I originally liked Smoak in this spot, and I still think he’d be the best pick, but I can see them going for Posey. He’s still a well rounded prospect, the Pirates aren’t brimming with catching prospects, and they’ve been burned on arms over the last 5 years. The pick could still be Alvarez, but I don’t really buy it, I think they either go with Smoak or Posey, and right now, I think Posey is the more realistic option.

1.3 KCR – Brian Matusz, LHP (San Diego University [2.1 = Matusz, 1.1 = Matusz]

Nothing changes here. I think KC would toy with the idea of taking Alvarez, but I think they’ll go for the polished pitcher instead. If Posey would fall here, I could see them going there, I guess Hosmer could be a possibility, but after splurging for Moustakas last year, I think Matusz is the safe choice here, and he should sign quickly.

1.4 BAL – Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Vanderbuilt) [2.1= Alvarez, 1.1 = Alvarez]

This was my initial pick, it was my pick last time, and I’m sticking with it here. I still don’t see the three teams above Baltimore taking Alvarez, and I think Baltimore is now going to take the best player available after seeing the way Matt Wieters has torn through pro ball. If Alvarez, Beckham and Posey are gone, Matusz could be a fit here.

1.5 SFG – Gordon Beckham, SS (Georgia) [2.1 = G Beckham, 1.1 = Posey]

If Smoak is on the board here it might complicate this pick, but I had Gordon Beckham here last time and I’ll stick with him. While teams drafting at the top should draft based on the best available talent, I have to think the presence of Angel Villalona will complicate matters for San Fran when they debate whether to take Smoak, who is limited to 1B. Beckham should stick up the middle, even if its at 2B, and he should move quickly. The Giants need tons of help, it would be a solid pick here.

1.6 FLA – Justin Smoak, 1B (South Carolina) [2.1 = Posey, 1.1 = Melville]

I think Florida is going to go with a bat, though they could use help on both sides. Smoak probably deserves to go higher than 6, as his combination of power and discipline as well as a good glove is a great fit for any team. The other guy who I really think could go here is Kyle Skipworth, and I see this being a coinflip type situation.

1.7 CIN – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri) [2.1 = Crow, 1.1= Hunt]

I’ll stick with Crow here. The Reds went with a prep catcher in Devin Mesoraco in 2007, I can’t see them taking another catcher in Skipworth, and if Smoak were to fall, I don’t see that as a possibility with the presence of Joey Votto. Gordon Beckham would make some sense, but I think Crow is the guy.

1.8 CHW – Jason Castro, C (Stanford) [2.1 = Alonso, 1.1 = Smoak]

I think the ideal situation for Chicago has Justin Smoak falling to them in this spot, but I don’t see that happening. I had Yonder Alonso here initially, but it appears he wants an above slot deal, and that doesn’t line up with what the White Sox do. Chicago has leaned heavily on the college ranks, and the only other guys that I can see here are arms like Shooter Hunt or Christian Friedrich. Could they pull a big surprise and go with Conor Gillaspie this high? I wouldn’t be totally surprised. The White Sox have one of the worst systems in baseball, and while Castro would be a reach, they have nothing resembling a catching prospect, and Castro should at least be an average regular.

1.9 WAS – Eric Hosmer [2.1 = Skipworth, 1.1 = Scheppers]

Last year, Washington was rumored to be ready to take Matt Wieters had he gotten past Baltimore, and they spent a ton of money after the first round. The report is that Hosmer wants above slot money and possibly a big league deal. I don’t think he’ll get a big league deal, but I can see Washington giving him $4M + here at this spot. Yonder Alonso is a possibility here, as is Skipworth, who I really liked here before. But I think Washington will be bold again as they continue to try and build from within with elite talent.

1.10 HOU – Shooter Hunt, RHP (Tulane) [2.1 = Hunt, 1.1 = G Beckham]

Hunt’s stock may be dipping depending on what you read, but I think Houston is still going to take a college player, and Hunt makes the most sense here looking at who is left on the board.

1.11 TEX – Yonder Alonso, 1B (Miami) [2.1 = Melville, 1.1 = Alonso]

I deviated away from Alonso last time to go with the prep arm, but I think Alonso here makes sense. Like Hosmer, he wants an above slot deal to sign, but Texas works well with Scott Boras, and I think they’ll have a great read on his signability here. I can still see Melville, but Alonso makes a lot of sense, as does Kyle Skipworth.

1.12 OAK – Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (Arizona State) [2.1 = Wallace, 1.1 = Wallace]

Nothing to see here. Im 97% sure Oakland is going to take a college player, Wallace fits the mold, it just makes a lot of sense. Shooter Hunt could be a possibility here, as could Friedrich, but no point changing this pick right now.

1.13 STL – Tim Melville, RHP (Holt HS, Missouri) [2.1 = Scheppers, 1.1 = Raben]

Call this a hunch. The word on the street is that Melville wants 10-15 pick money or he’s going to college. His stock seemed to drop a bit this spring, but he’s still one of the best prep arms available, and pitching in the Cardinals back yard, you can bet they got plenty of looks at him. St Louis has taken 6 RHP since 2003 in the first round, though 5 of them have been college arms. I just have a feeling about this, I don’t see Melville going to college.

1.14 MIN – Brett Lawrie, INF (Brookwood SS, Langley, BC) [2.1 = Gillaspie, 1.1 = Gillaspie]

Lawrie’s stock has been shooting through the roof over the last 6 weeks or so. Minnesota takes a near equal number of prep prospects and college guys, and they like pitchers, but I don’t see a real fit here in that respect, so I’m going to go with Lawrie. The big question is where he’s going to play defensively, but most people seem to believe in the bat.

1.15 LAD – Gerrit Cole, RHP (Lutheran HS, CA) [2.1 = Cole, 1.1 = Cole]

I haven’t heard a lot of info about the Dodgers desires, so because of that, I’ll just stick with my instinct here and go with Cole again. Aaron Hicks name has been mentioned here, but I’m going with Cole.

1.16 MIL – Kyle Skipworth, C (Patriot HS, CA) [2.1 = E Martin, 1.1 = Skipworth]

I originally had Skipworth here, then changed my mind, and now I’m back, looking at the board and the players available. Ethan Martin hasn’t done anything to see his stock drop, but I just have a hunch on Skipworth here if he doesn’t go higher.

1.17 TOR – Christian Friedrich, LHP (Eastern Kentucky) [2.1 = Friedrich, 1.1 = Friedrich]

Nothing has changed here. Friedrich seemed to move up in a few mock drafts I’ve seen, but I don’t know that I see a real good fit for him higher, unless he goes to the White Sox at 8, which I guess is possible.

1.18 NYM – Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia) [2.1 = Fields, 1.1 = Lobstein]

I had Fields here before, like Friedrich there were rumors that he was moving up some boards, but I think he’s still here at 18, and I think the Mets’ reliever fetish will make this too much to pass up.

1.19 CHC – Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP (Wilson HS, CA) [2.1 = Hicks, 1.1 = Hicks]

Rumors indicate Hicks will be gone by this point, but I’m not 100% convinced of that, so I’m going to leave him right in this spot.

1.20 SEA – Ethan Martin, RHP/3B (Stephens County HS, GA) [2.1 = Meyer, 1.1 = Meyer]

It now appears that Meyer is going to attend college, which means Seattle would have to go another direction here. Martin could be gone by this point, but based on the way I see things falling he’d be one of the best guys on the board, and I think Seattle goes in that direction.

1.21 DET – Casey Kelly, SS/RHP (Sarasota Fla HS) [2.1 = Hosmer, 1.1 = Crow]

I originally had the Tigers penciled in to be the beneficiaries of a top talent dropping for what feels like the 5th straight year, but I think Hosmer and Crow both end up in the Top 10, leaving Detroit to sort out what they want to do. Kelly is also viewed as somewhat of a signability risk, as he’s lined up right now to play both football and baseball at Tennessee. The Tigers aren’t afraid to pay to keep a guy away from college, and Kelly does offer lots of tools and projection. I could see a college reliever here as well, but I’ll go with Kelly.

1.22 NYM – Ike Davis, OF (Arizona State) [2.1 = Castro, 1.1 = Fields]

Castro looks like he might have moved up and past this spot, and I’ve bumped Fields up to the Mets at 18, that leaves them looking for someone else. Davis seems to be a somewhat polarizing prospect, I’m not a huge fan, but the Mets adhere to the slotting system, and in a near barren system, Davis would immediately become a top 10 prospect. It would blow my mind and delight me at the same time if they took another reliever like Cashner or Schlereth here, but I’ll go with Davis.

1.23 SDP – Andrew Cashner, RHP (TCU) [2.1 = Cashner, 1.1 = Lynn]

I had Cashner here, and I think this is where he ends up. I’m 93% sure the Padres will go college, and I suppose a guy like Ryan Perry or Lance Lynn, who I originally had here, could also work. A darkhorse in this spot could be Chris Carpenter out of Kent State, but I’ll stick with Cashner.

1.24 PHI – Zach Collier, OF (Chino Hills HS, CA) [2.1 = DeVall, 1.1 = DeVall]

Well, I’ve changed course. I guess I just came to the realization that the Phillies won’t take DeVall, and that they will look in another direction. Keith Law linked Collier to the Phillies a few days ago, and he fits the bill in terms of being a premium athlete with tools galore. While I’d prefer another guy here, and while I think we could possibly do better, we could do worse (Hewitt), and Collier is one of those guys who could turn into a star after sufficient development time.

1.25 COL – Jake Odorizzi, Highland (Ill.) HS [2.1 = Lynn, 1.1 = Hunter]

Odorizzi has been rising up boards and is one of the better prep pitchers in the draft, but because he’s in the Midwest, it seems like he’s a bit more under the radar because scouts have had less looks at him. He wants $1M plus to sign, and that shouldn’t be a problem here at 25. The Rockies always need pitching, this seems like a logical fit.

1.26 ARI – Ryan Perry, RHP (Arizona) [2.1 = Weeks, 1.1 = Gray]

I’ve been all over the place with the D-Backs, but I think I found a winner here in Ryan Perry. Perry went to school at Arizona, and he’s looked even better as a reliever this season than as a starter, as his velocity has spiked into the upper 90’s. Arizona has leaned college, and Perry should move quickly.

1.27 MIN – Conor Gillaspie, 3B (Wichita State) [2.1 = Galloway, 1.1 = Murphy]

I had Gillaspie going to Minnesota with their first pick in previous drafts, but based on the buzz, he might be available here, so I’ll give him to Minnesota anyway. He can hit, his position as a pro is yet to be determined, but the Twins system isn’t overflowing with position prospects, so Gillaspie will work.

1.28 NYY – Robbie Ross, LHP (Lexington Christian Academy) [2.1 = Kelly, 1.1 = E Martin]

I had Casey Kelly dropping here last time, but I think he goes before this, so the Yankees will look for another premium talent who drops down boards. Ross reportedly wants mid first round money to keep him away from Kentucky, and the Yankees won’t have a problem paying the bill.

1.29 CLE – Jemile Weeks, 2B (Miami) [2.1 = Raben, 1.1 = T Ross]

I had Dennis Raben here, but it appears his stock is continuing to drop, which means I’ll shift course to Raben’s teammate Jemile Weeks. Weeks has the name recognition, and while he doesn’t have his brother’s tools, he still profiles as a major league regular. The Indians play it safe in the draft for the most part, so Weeks could make sense here.

1.30 BOS – Reese Havens, SS (South Carolina) [2.1 = Gose, 1.1 = Gose]

The hot rumor circulating is that the Red Sox want to take Havens, now a shortstop at South Carolina, and immediately convert him to catcher. Havens can hit, but some think he won’t stick at SS as a pro. He’s athletic enough to possibly work at catcher, where his bat would be plus. The Red Sox are one of the most progressive organizations in baseball, so this type of thinking wouldn’t be surprising. The Sox have taken both prep and college players in recent years, so they could go in any direction. Its being reported by Keith Law that Gose only wants to be a hitter, while it was his pitching that originally intrigued me, so thats why I’m switching course, coupled with the conversion rumors.

And now the comp round…

1.31 MIN – Wade Miley, LHP (Louisiana State)

The Twins are not slot busters, and having two first round picks, I think they will take a guy they can sign at slot or slightly below here, which eliminates Issac Galloway, a guy I originally liked in this spot. Miley is a solid but not spectacular college lefty, and Minnesota is one of the better drafters of college pitching.

1.32 MIL – Aaron Weatherford, RHP (Mississippi State)

If Milwaukee lands Skipworth, a prep catcher, with their first pick I could easily see them popping Weatherford, who has gotten lost in the mix with guys like Fields and Cashner. He has a dominating split finger and a good fastball and should move very quickly.

1.33 NYM – Tyler Sample, RHP (Mullen HS, CO)

The Mets reportedly like Sample a lot, and after taking two college guys in the first, they might roll the dice here. I haven’t heard Sample’s bonus demands, but I think he’ll be affordable for the Mets here. They could take Daniel Schlereth, another college reliever, and it wouldn’t surprise me all that much.

1.34 PHI – Ross Seaton, RHP (Houston Second Baptist, TX)

The big talk right now is that the Phillies are going to take Jason Knapp, a prep righty from New Jersey, in the compensation round, but I’m not really buying it. Instead, I think Seaton makes a whole lot of sense, if hes still on the board. The Phillies have gone to Texas for a number of high picks over the last 5 years, so they clearly trust their area scout. Seaton has climbed up some draft boards, and I think its possible he goes in the back of the first round, maybe to Arizona, but I think he’s definitely high on the draft boards for the Phillies. He fits the projectable RHP mold the Phillies like. I’m not a huge fan of his delivery, but it doesn’t seem to worry scouts, and his projectability, as well as his ability to throw strikes, makes him a real intriguing guy right now. You can see a brief clip of his delivery here, and BA has him ranked as the 2nd best prospect in Texas, 28th overall in the country. Part of me still wants David Cooper here, but I think the Phillies will take a bat and a pitcher with their first 2 picks, so going with Collier at 24, I’ll go with Seaton at 34. I’ll be surprised if Knapp goes at 34, and instead I see him going in the 2nd round, maybe even later.

There you have it. I could be way off, or I could even get a few right. At this point, I’m only concerned with the Phillies making smart picks in the first 5 rounds and re-stocking a system that is improving, but still has a long way to go.

EDIT > Baseball America released their NJ scouting reports, and Knapp is the 2nd ranked prospect in the state, but isn’t in the Top 200. This is their capsule on him

There is no scouting consensus on righthander Jason Knapp. Some scouts believe he’s the top prospect in the Garden State, destined to throw 100 mph in the big leagues, while other scouts see nothing more than arm strength—and one even called him “the most overrated guy in New Jersey.” Late in the spring, Knapp was pitching at 94-96 mph in short relief outings, and he could add velocity thanks to his loose arm and projectable 6-foot-5 frame, which started to shed some baby fat this spring. But the rest of Knapp’s stuff needs work, as so does his delivery. He tries to throw a three-quarters curveball from a lower arm slot that might be better suited for a slider, but the pitch shows decent depth from time to time. His changeup is also a work in progress but has good arm speed and fade. Knapp has fundamental flaws in his delivery, yet for all that, he could go in the top three rounds—or even rocket into the first round—if a club falls in love with his upside. Like Quinton Miller, he’s committed to North Carolina but is considered an easier sign.

Its easy to see why the Phillies would love him.