We’ll do this one with bullet points, just some general thoughts. Tomorrow I’ll post my final mock draft as well as some thoughts on the Phillies 7 early picks, and then on Thursday we’ll follow the draft as it happens and discuss the Phillies picks as well as other picks of note.
* Jim Salisbury, the only Phillies beat writer who really gives service to the draft, had some interesting notes in this article, which you may have seen by now. This is the money quote from Arbuckle;
“Can we take a kid who is worth $300,000 and give him $1.5 million? No,” Arbuckle said. “Can we take a kid who might be worth $350,000 and give him $600,000? If we see value and it’s the kid we want and that’s what it will take to sign him, then yeah, we might do that.”
There is some promise there, but of course “might” is the operative word. My stance on taking the best talent is well known. I don’t expect the Phillies to go crazy and sign every unsignable kid to a huge bonus, I just don’t want to see guys taken and given well below slot bonuses just to keep the draft budget down.
* Keith Law did a rough mock draft for the first round a few days ago, and he came up with Zach Collier, a toolsy OF from California at #24. This was his blurb
The Phillies also have been linked to various college relievers, including Cashner, Schlereth and Weatherford, and they also are heavy on two Northeast products, Hewitt and Jason Knapp, with Knapp likely to be their pick in the sandwich round.
While I wouldn’t love it, of all the players mentioned in the blurb, I’d take Collier over anyone else. I still don’t get the Knapp thing, unless he’s the “safe” pick in the comp round to save money. He’s not in the BA Top 200, which makes me wonder why we’d need to take him at 34 overall unless it was to save money for the extra picks. This is what BA has to say about Collier, who is ranked #22 overall;
Collier was not selected to participate in the 2007 Area Code Games or the Aflac Classic, but he’s had a high profile nonetheless. He started to generate buzz during the local Connie Mack summer season as a teammate of Isaac Galloway and Aaron Hicks. Rave reviews from parents and youth coaches began to filter down to scouts, and Collier helped his cause with strong showings in two showcase events held at the MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton. He continued gaining ground this spring, and then moved into first-round consideration when he took a Hicks 93 mph fastball deep during a tournament game in Fullerton. To make sure the 40-plus scouts in attendance were paying attention, Collier ripped two more hits. Lefthanded all the way, Collier has an athletic and projectable 6-foot-2, 195-pound outfielder’s frame. His above-average speed makes him a threat as a baserunner and permits him to patrol center field for now. As he slows down and matures physically, he’ll play an outfield corner, and his average arm makes right field a possibility. Collier had a surgical procedure to improve blood flow to his heart, performed in May 2006, which may be a concern for some clubs, but he’s been medically cleared for two years and has had no problems. Collier’s hitting ability and solid all-around game had him moving up boards, possibly in the middle of the first round.
* I participated in a mock draft along with guys who run prospect sites for other teams. The goal of the mock draft was to pick like the scouting director of your team might pick. I ended up taking Tanner Scheppers at 24 and David Cooper at 34. The story on Scheppers is now well publicized, he has trouble with his arm, but no one is 100% sure what the problem is. I took him thinking that it was only a minor issue, and knowing that the Phillies have been willing to roll the dice in the past on guys who fall due to injury. However, Kevin Goldstein yesterday mentioned that the latest rumor is a labrum issue for Scheppers, which obviously would eliminate him from my draft board. I’ve written about Cooper before, but for those who don’t know, he’s basically an all hit/little glove 1B, with an excellent eye and great raw power, but only average to below average defense. I think at 34, he’d be a great fit considering the lack of true power prospects in the system, especially at 1B. You can find more info on Cooper here.
For everything I’ve written on the 2008 draft, click here. As I said, I’ll be back tomorrow with my final mock draft.
Arbuckle’s quote is encouraging. I would expect any team financially comitted to winning would take that approach. No one is asking them to overpay X5, but maybe X0.5 or so when it means stocking the system with real prospects.
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Both Cooper and Wallace were team mates of Karl Bolt in HS. They played for the number one traveling team in the country, called NorCal. Other alumni include Jimmy Rollins, Burrell, and a host of guys in the Bigs.
http://www.norcalbaseball.org/alumni.html
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Shame about Scheppers; I wish him all the best in his recovery. Even with the labrum issue, at what point does that become a gamble worth taking? Fourth/fifth round? Or is someone else likely to pounce sooner than that in hopes that he can recover?
I just pray we don’t take a college reliever. You never draft to need, especially in the MLB Draft. I’d love it if we could get some polished college bats into the system as well, so I like the Cooper pick a lot. Let’s just hope the Phils make us happy on Thursday…
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The thing is, if Scheppers falls too far, he’d probably be better suited to just rehab and hope he fully recovers next year, has a lights out senior season, and goes back into the 1st round. He was a Top 10 pick this year before the injury, if hes fully recovered for his senior year, no reason he can’t be a Top 10 pick again. If the Phillies take him at 34 and offer him a bit over slot, like 1.1 million, I think he’d sign. But thats just my opinion.
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How about Durant for power at 1b?
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-Since Aaron Hicks seems to be flat out refusing to sign as a pitcher, might he become the next “toolsy” option at #24(or 34), with Collier and Hewitt off the board?
-With an abundance of highly rated relievers in this draft, couldn’t the Phils nab a good one with their 4th, 5th or 6th pick? Regardless of their immediate need, the Phillies don’t really have any potential closers/dominant relievers in their system, with the possible exception of Outman. If Gordon, Madsen and possibly Lidge leave after this season, there is simply no one in line to replace them within the organization. Carrasco and Drabek might have good enough stuff to close, but no one wants to go that route. Organizations wealthy with pitching and flush with cash, like the Red Sox and Yankees, can afford to use their top pitching prospects as short relievers, but unlike those teams, the Phillies can’t keep four 15+ million dollar starters in their rotation. Would you be opposed to taking Andrew Cashner in the 1st? He could provide immediate help in the pen, and eventually start.
-Jason Knapp is #63 on Keith Law’s latest top 75 list. Is he another late riser, who was previously overlooked because he plays in the northeast? All I know about the kid is that he throws a 96mph fastball, but thats pretty impressive for a high schooler playing in cold weather. #34 still seems too high, but he could be a decent investment at 51, 71 or 102…
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Yeah Knapp must be a helium guy who is rising. I wouldn’t mind taking a college reliever in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th round, just not at 24 or 34. There will be too much talent on the board there. I guess I could live with Fields at 34, but not Cashner or the other guys being mentioned. I just dont like the idea of drafting college relievers. Someone said they pan out at a similar rate to starters, but I haven’t seen that study.
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Personally, as much as I would love to draft a potential starting pitcher at #24, the board may not work in our favor. Besides taking the best player available (not Anthony Hewitt…), if there are any potential 3B prospects available, such as Conor Gillaspie, Ethan Martin, Casey Kelly, then I think we should take them. As much as I like Travis Mattair, I believe we need more 3B prospects.
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I forgot to mention that after that the next few picks should be pitchers, both relievers and starters alike.
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