31 thoughts on “Baseball HQ’s Top 15 Phillies prospects”

1. That’s an interesting way of looking at things; it’s good to see a fresh take every once in a while.

   Not to nitpick, but isn’t Outman’s ceiling a bit higher than “average regular”? Obviously we don’t know if he’ll ever get his walks down, but a lefty who can touch 95 at times seems like he could be a really nice player if things work out right. Of course, odds are he’ll never be more than that, but the possibility’s always there…

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2. I think it’s a pretty cool system, especially for evaluating prospects. That way, we can call Jaramillo a 5b/6b prospect and all agree. Golson as an 8d sounds about right – high ceiling, less than good chance of attaining that ceiling.

   The Mattair and Brown rankings are interesting, but I’m with James – the guys in the lower minors are much less of a sure thing.

   – Jeff

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3. Drabek is very interesting, I wonder what his ceiling/letter ranking would be if he was officially recovered from tj surgery and regained his velocity?

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4. great way of looking at things. honestly, just ranking players against others in our system is worthless. it really is about relative value vs. the rest of the majors, i.e. impact potential. i think that i agree with everyone except savery. buy maybe that is more “hope” than “evaluation”.

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5. I dont know why, but im kinda shocked to see Mattair sitting at number 6 with a ranking of 9E. I mean i know the kid has upside, but he doesnt even have a full season yet, wow.

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6. That is an interesting system. I’m a little surprised Cardenas doesn’t rank as a 9 instead of an 8. And, although I’m one of the Golson “haters,” I would have expected him to score a 9 as well, given the way scouts drool over his raw stuff. Of course, I would also change his “D” ranking to something like a “Z.”
   Before the Golson supporters try to hunt me down, let me also add that I hope I’m wrong about him.

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7. I agree with everyone else that this is an interesting method of combining celing with liklihood. I was also surprised with Outman’s 7 and intrigued by Happ’s 7. I would really love to see him turn things around this year. Golson an 8? I still struggle with that. In evaluating our system, real growth would be if we have several more Bs next year since we know what Reading’s team is going to look like.

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8. An interesting system, with some evaluations that seem doubtful. A 9 ceiling for Mattair and a 7 ceiling for D’Arnaud seem out of synch. An A chance of reaching potential for an injured Zagurski seems optimistic. I think Marson’s ceiling is higher than a 7.

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9. I take issue where their ranking of the prospects relative to each other more than I do the actual assigned values. In fact, other than Outman’s ratings I have a hard time disagreeing with anything that they have. Mattair is a highly projectable, highly athletic player who hasn’t played baseball full-time and is not from a baseball hotbed, hence 9E. D’Arnaud is already a fairly skilled player from a baseball hotbed but lacks some projectability in his body and hitting- a 7 seems about right (but I would put him as a D rather than an E). Cardenas’ lack of speed and definitive power puts him at abou tan 8 for me as well (I think he is slightly overrated due to Chase Utley comparisons). My only issue is with Outman- he has electric stuff. If he commands his pitches better he can be a dominating lefty- a 9 or a 10. I would like to see how they chose to rank the prospects- what makes Mattair’s 9E higher than Dominic Brown’s 9E?

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10. I really like the rating system. I think it would be a good idea to install it as the official rating system of this site, as it’s a lot quicker than saying “Well, Golson could be studly but the chances of that happening are something like 1%”. Also, I think it would be really cool if you added a rating like that to each guy in your top 30.

    That being said, I think guys with D and E potential need to have a second rating. Like I would rate Kyle Drabek as a 9E/7B. He may not ever be elite, but it’s hard to see him not being at least an average starter.

    Also, I’d love to know why he put Mattair that high.

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11. I like this site a lot more than other forums or blogs. I do not know much about the minors but its nice to learn. I also like this rating system and now I’m even more set against the possible trade of Carrasco to the Mariners.

    About the Zag projection….he’s shown the ability to pitch in middle relief and if he returns from injury then I think he’ll settle in nicely as a 6-7th inning lefty. The Phillies will certainly have a better pen with him in there.

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12. There seems to be a couple of names missing from the list that should be there D’Arby Myers and Freddy Galvis they were hurt and did not get the opportunity to finish like the rest but the talent is there.

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13. I’m really not sure how much I like this ranking system, but I do agree with what Ducky said – Drabek may NEVER be an elite pitcher, but I definitely think he’ll be at least league average — in other words, there should be a second ranking for guys with high ceilings but a relatively slim chance of reaching that ceiling. Think Greg Golson. He could be an 8D or he could be a 1A.

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14. I think your missing the point. Drabek’s 9E already accounts for the possibility that he could just end up being a 7B. Same goes for Golson’s. The only way this rating could be wrong is if a player transcends it. Whats the point of using a rating system that combines ceiling and probability of reaching that ceiling if you’re going to assign each player multiple possible ratings? It defeats the purpose.

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15. I think that there should be a rating for the best-case scenario, and one for the worst-case scenario, that’s all.

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16. Here’s an interesting thought experiment: what would current Phils mainstays like Rollins, Utley, Howard, Myers, Hamels and Victorino have merited under this system two years before their first season of full-time MLB action (’99, ’03, ’03, ’01, ’04, ’04 respectively, I think)? My guesses:

    Rollins 8B
    Utley 8B
    Howard 9D
    Myers 8C
    Hamels 10D
    Victorino 6C

    Rollins and Utley were considered solid prospects, but if anyone saw MVP contention in their futures, I don’t remember it. Howard was always described as a guy who could be a big star, but more likely would end up a Russ Branyan/Tony Clark type. Myers was a solid prospect though some worried about his K rate; he’s probably the closest to bearing out what was expected of him. Hamels always had the super-high ceiling but it was very questionable whether he’d ever stay intact long enough to perform (as, in a sense, it still is). And nobody thought Victorino was going to be more than a fringe guy if that; I remember being pissed when Wade took him in the Rule 5.

    Not totally sure what my point is here, other than maybe the Jason Donald/Lou Marson types might have more upside than they’re currently getting credit for.

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17. I think Hamels would have been an E, because of the really checkered injury history.

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18. Hey great site thanks for all your hard work, I just bought a ticket package to the Iron Pigs since I live in Whitehall. My question is will you be able to help me out letting me know players to look for and things of that nature?

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19. I sure will. Unfortunately, the AAA roster is not going to be loaded, prospect wise, at least until some of the AA guys get called up.

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20. I think Iron Pigs is a fitting name for the Phils AAA team, considering what the roster usually looks like.

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21. Love the system. It is excellent as a point of begining Hot Stove League discussions.

    My Two Cents:
    Travis Mattair (3B/SS)- 8E not 9E
    Josh Outman (LHP)- 8C not 7C
    Lou Marson (C)- 8C not 7C
    Edgar Garcia (RHP)- 8C not 7C

    Jaramillo, Jason (C) 6B
    Sampson, Julian (RHP) 8E
    Myers, D’Arby (CF) 8E

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22. 🙂

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23. I agree that you can’t have two ratings on each player. In theory every player has every lower combination “available” to them. Drabek CAN end up being an average starter (a 7) or an 8 or a 5 if his arm doesn’t come back (or heck even a 1 – you just never know). These lists are about top end projections.

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24. I don’t see why you can’t have multiple ratings for each player. Hell, it’s their system. I like it – it’s a decent way of projecting a prospect: “Here’s what Player X’s ceiling is, and here is how likely he is to attain that ceiling.” Yeah, you could argue for days on end that Golson (for example) is more likely to be a 4b than an 8d, but that’s part of the fun of the whole thing.

    – Jeff

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25. I’m not sure who developed it first, but this is the exact same rating system Hockeysfuture.com uses to rate NHL prospects. 1-10 on ceiling, A-E as far as probability to reach it. Probably the 1st and last time anybody will post anything hockey-related on this sight, but i figured I’d let you know.

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26. I like the rankings for the most part, though there are a few i’d contend here and there. Cardenas is better then a 50/50 shot to be a solid player in MLB i think. Also, seems like Garcia’s rating is lower then i’d expect. It cool to see them broken down in terms of probability etc.

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27. I am interested to see what Cardenas can do in Clearwater this year. MILB.com has rated the Lakewood park as one of the least hitter friendly in the minors:

    http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071218&content_id=331700&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

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28. A C probability rating for Savery seems high for me. Counting GCL and AFL, what has been the most IP in a game? They still seem to be babying his arm, which suggests less than 100% health.

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29. Cool system. My only critique would be the fact that the third figure- the actual ranking, doesn’t seem particularly relevant. I think just the numbers and the letters would be sufficient. Easier for organization, but it begs the Brown/Mattair question noted above.

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30. First time I have been here in a long time. Good web site.
    I like to follow the Phils minor leaguers some to see who they have up and coming.

    I am a surprised they did not rank Jason Donald higher and with more potential. I would think he could be a 8D to 9E, especially since he is further away from the majors.

    A more accurate observation could be provided for these guys in about 6months. Most of these guys are in the low to mid minors and this year we may start to see some of the Phils real prospects hitting AA and AAA. That is something that has not been happening in the last dozen years or so.

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31. Agree the 9E already incorporates the possibility that the player may only reach level 7. The E states the current possibility of reaching that potential, which could realy be anything. Don’t think there is a celing and a floor, Ducky. Golson could get a cup of coffee, strike out 13 times out of 20 ABs and never see majors again. Who knows? More than 1 rating does not make sense.

    Agree Outman shoul dhave higher ceiling. and a few other ratings are a little off, but a good system–simple, and covers the two most salient characteristics of a prospect: ceiling and risk.

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