I was looking through old prospect lists for the Phillies at Baseball America, and I went back to the 2004 list. I love going back and reading the future outlooks for guys, just to see how close they came to their predictions and prognostications. The Phillies Top 10, in order, with their future outlooks. A good idea raised in the comments, after the Phillies Top 10, I’ll give you the Top 10 lists of other teams. Check below the fold for the details
Cole Hamels
The Future: Hamels hasn’t experienced any repercussions from his high school arm injury. A pulled muscle in his right shoulder blade caused the Phillies to remove him from the trials for USA Baseball’s Olympic qualifying team. Club officials didn’t want to risk Hamels altering his mechanics to cope. The minor injury isn’t a long-term concern, and he should begin 2004 on schedule by returning to high Class A Clearwater. He’ll be challenged in Double-A Reading as soon as he proves he’s ready, and will continue his rapid development toward becoming a frontline starter.
Gavin Floyd
The Future: Floyd’s development is right on track. He’ll move up to Double-A in 2004, and the pitching depth in the organization means the Phillies won’t have to rush him.
Ryan Howard
The Future: There’s no reason Howard can’t reach 35 homers per year in the majors. His power met the stiff test of the pitcher-friendly FSL and should play fine in Double-A in 2004. He won’t be rushed through the system because of Jim Thome’s presence in Philadelphia, but likely will be ready for the majors before Thome’s contract expires after 2008.
Ryan Madson
The Future: Madson is ready for the big leagues and will have a shot to win the fifth starter’s role in Philadelphia this spring. He made a positive impression with pitching coach Joe Kerrigan during his September callup, giving him a slight advantage in the competition.
Keith Bucktrot
The Future: Bucktrot reported to the Arizona Fall League, but felt an elbow twinge and was pulled off the roster. He checked out fine and it’s no longer a concern. He’ll begin 2004 back in Double-A but once he’s ready, the Phillies won’t hesitate to make room for him in what could become a crowded Triple-A rotation.
Alfredo Simon
The Future: Simon’s size and repertoire used to remind Phillies officials of Carlos Silva, but now he might have more upside than that. While he could still emerge as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, it’s more likely Simon will become a late-inning reliever working off his plus fastball and whichever secondary pitch comes along the quickest. He’ll work on all three pitches as a high Class A starter in 2004.
Michael Bourn
The Future: Bourn and fellow 2003 draftee Javon Moran are similar players. They’ll continue alternating between left and center field at low Class A Lakewood in 2004. The Phillies hope Bourn can become a leadoff hitter with game-changing skills.
Elizardo Ramirez
The Future: There’s a possibility Ramirez could repeat high Class A because of his youth and a glut of pitchers already ahead of him in the system. If there’s an open spot in the Double-A rotation, however, he’ll be ready for it.
Juan Richardson
The Future: Because he missed half the year in Double-A, Richardson might begin 2004 there to make up for lost time. A solid spring training could land Richardson in Triple-A, and he should end his season there in any case. The best all-around third baseman in the system, Richardson could take over in Philadelphia by 2005.
Terry Jones
The Future: Phillies officials say Jones can be an above-average major league hitter capable of hitting .280 with 20-25 homers annually. He’ll work on his patience in high Class A next year.
Still waiting for that Juan Richardson breakout campaign! Now, on to the rest
Atlanta
Andy Marte, 3B
Jeff Francoeur, OF
Adam Wainwright, P
Bubba Nelson, P
Dan Meyer, P
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Macay McBride, P
Brian McCann, C
Kyle Davies, P
Anthony Lerew, P
Florida
Jeremy Hermida, OF
Jason Stokes, 1B
Jeff Allison, P
Scott Olsen, P
Yorman Bazardo, P
Josh Willingham, C
Eric Reed, OF
Jai Miller, OF
Trevor Hutchinson, P
Lincoln Holdzkom, P (Hey, I know this guy!)
Montreal/Washington
Clint Everts, P
Mike Hinckley, P
Larry Broadway, 1B
Josh Karp, P
Chad Cordero, P
Shawn Hill, P
Darrell Rasner, P
Seung Song, P
Terrmel Sledge, OF
Rogearvin Bernadina, OF
New York Mets
Scott Kazmir, P (bhahaha)
David Wright, 3B
Matt Peterson, P
Lastings Milledge, OF
Justin Huber, C
Bob Keppel, P
Jeremy Griffiths, P
Victor Diaz, 2B
Craig Brazell, 1B
Aaron Baldiris, 3B
In hindsight a pretty good list although i don’t know who a couple of these guys are, Richardson, Jones, and bucktrot. Two obvious homeruns there at #1 and #3
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I believe Jones is out of baseball…amazing that he was the Phillies #10 guy in 2004. Wow.
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The fact that 6 players on this list are in the majors now is pretty damn impressive. Hamels is an ace, Howard is a superstud, Madson’s a SU man, Bourn is a 4th OF, Floyd is a 5th starter, and Ramirez is a 5th starter/long reliever.
James, I think it would be interesting to see if any team has more guys from 2004 on a ML roster right now. 6/10 seems awfully high, especially considering that 2 are studs.
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did richardson fade into oblivion? because thats a shame. Can you imagine if a legit 3rd base product had emerged with that group too?
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Ducky, looking at Atlanta’s list, I see 7 (Marte, Francoeur, Wainwright, LaRoche, McBride, McCann, and Davies). Someone correct me if I’m wrong (maybe on Marte).
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Richardson is currently playing 3B for Gigantes in the Dominican League:
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Juan%20Richardson&pos=16&sid=l131&t=p_pbp&pid=425494
Last year he put up an .841 OPS in the Texas League (AA) at age 28. Maybe he will get a cup of coffee at some point, but it looks like he will top out in the minors at AA or AAA.
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I’d say Jeff Alison was a bust for Florida.
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Marte did make the majors, but he has stalled as of late. He’s currently with the Tribe.
[don’t post generic links in the comments here]
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Whatever happened to Bucktrot?? He had some potential……was it a recurring elbow problem?
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Bubba Nelson is also a Phillies now.
And yeah, Bucktrot had some problem (pretty sure elbow), and he was never the same again. I kinda liked the guy now.
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Is it me or does anyone else hope Floyd really does well in Chicago? He just never seemed to click here.
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Seems like a pretty strong list. The Phils have just not had any success drafting at 3B recently. ( Richardson, Jones, Costanzo) Sorry Costanzo fans, I saw him play at Reading this year and was totally unimpressed. Good pitching will eat him up. However, 6 of those guys are currently in the bigs and that isn’t that bad. I just think the Phils need to take that next step and ante up for the quality talent that will allow them to fill their own holes and go out and get the talent that will get them over the top.
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OK, so, I looked through every team’s Top 30s and their depth charts in the 2004 BA prospect handbook, and I listed all of the current (2007/08) Phillies (I’m only putting positions on nobodies):
Bubba Nelson P (Atlanta’s 3)
Fabio Castro (White Sox 16)
Lincolnm Holdzkom (Florida 11)
Eric Bruntlett IF (Houston, depth chart)
Brennan King (Lehigh Valley 3B, Dodgers depth chart)
Shane Victorino (LA Dodgers depth chart)
Heath Totten (Lehigh Valley P, Dodgers depth chart)
Matt Childers (Lehigh Valley P, Milwaukee depth chart)
JD Durbin (Minnesota 4)
Val Pascucci OF (Montreal 16)
Jason Anderson P (NY Mets 23)
Anderson Garcia P (He’s at Reading, NY Mets 30)
Eric Valent he’s Wm.port’s coach (NY Mets depth chart)
Hector Made IF (HE’s at Clearwater, NY Yankees 16)
Justin Pope P (NY Yankees depth chart)
Landon Jacobsen P (Lehigh Valley, Pittsburgh depth chart)
Travis Blackley P (Seattle 3)
Chris Snelling OF (Seattle 6)
Greg Dobbs (Seattle 13)
Michael Garciaparra SS (Seattle 25)
Pete LaForest C (Tampa Bay 11)
Jayson Werth (Toronto 17).
And, I also noted what the Phillies got out of the traded prospects they had:
Michael Bourn (#7) netted us P Brad Lidge,
Elizardo Ramirez (#8), Anderson Machado (#11), Javon Moran (#15), and Joe Wilson (#30) all netted us Lidle and Todd Jones,
Gavin Floyd (#2) got us Freddy Garcia,
Alfredo Simon (#6) got us Felix Rodriguez, who we flipped to the Yankees for Kenny Lofton,
Josh Hancock (#18) went to the Sawx for Jeremy Giambi,
and Robby Tejeda (#23) went to Texas for OF Dave Dellucci.
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I saw richarson play in AA one year- he had alot of power but struck out too much and didn’t Jones blow out his elbow or shoulder?
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I think that they were pretty close here. One interesting way to look at it is to compare those prospects to how we feel about today’s prospects. We knew Howard was a slugger. He dominated in the minors to back up his tools. As excited as we are about Brown, Cardenas or Golson, no one can say that any of them compare to how we felt about Howard at the time. Same goes for Hammels vs. CC. Hammels was a stud and he dominated the minors. CC just doesn’t really inspire that kind of confidence. A healthy Drabek would do it for me because of his stuff, but we will have to wait and see on him. Outman compares to how I felt about Madson at the time. I never felt much about any of the other players on the 2004 list.
You guys use my scientific approach of “gut feel”. Do you agree?
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PP —
I think your analysis is correct, the current crop on the farm has an many good and maybe more ok prospects than we have had in the past, but is void of obvious megaprospects. I don’t think we have anyone who stands as tall as Gio did going into last off-season.
To your analysis of the 2004 prospects, I’ll add Floyd to the count of truly serious prospects, which leads to the conclusion that not all really strong pitching prospects come to fruition or last long in the pros. Bucktrot was also a Madson/Outman level pitching prospect while healthy.
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Allison will be back.
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Ditto on Allison ! Jeff will be back and be stronger than ever.
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Jeff’s been throwing once a week in MA looking great both physically ( around 215) and mentally.
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