2008 Breakout candidate; Edgar Garcia

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As I’m compiling a little list to come up with my top breakout candidates, Edgar Garcia is the first name that jumps out at me. No one mentioned him in the open thread to list possible candidates, but to me, he seems like the perfect choice. Baseball America has quickly soured on him, after placing him firmly around the top 10-12 prospects for the last 2 years, saying he’s going to drop well down the list. They cite his lack of velocity early, and then his work habits, which is the first time I’ve ever heard anything of the sort. Well, I’m not buying it, and I think 2008 is going to be a good year for Garcia. Check below for more

Just last season, Garcia was pitching very well in the New York Penn League as an 18 year old. He flashed excellent control, 1.36 BB/9, but didn’t strike out a ton of guys, only 46 in 66 IP, which caused people to downgrade him slightly. The one part of his game I was interested in was his groundball to flyball rate. In 2006, he induced 87 groundballs to 69 flyballs, a 1.26 ratio. While more GB than FB is always good, you want to see a ratio of at least 1.40, preferably higher, especially for a guy that didn’t miss that many bats. That said, the New York Penn League is littered with polished college hitters, and he was one of the younger pitchers in the league. To show the control he did though, facing the competition he did was impressive to me.

So, the Phillies naturally bumped him to Lakewood for his age 19 season. Again, he was young for the league, but he again held his own. His walk rate jumped a bit, predictable going from short season to full season ball, but his strikeout rate also jumped up a tick, and more importantly, his groundball rate improved. In 2007, he induced 158 groundballs to 102 flyballs, a 1.55 ratio. Let’s stack up his 2006 and 2007

2006: 66.0 IP — 1.36 BB/9 — 6.27 K/9 — 8.45 H/9 — 0.68 HR/9
2007: 122.0 IP — 2.54 BB/9 — 6.60 K/9 — 9.46 H/9 — 0.80 HR/9

As you can see there, the difference between his 2006 and his 2007 was basically one more hit and one more walk per 9 innings. His HR rate remained very similar, his K rate improved slightly. In 2006, he showed bigger platoon splits, righties posting a .662 OPS and lefties a .611 OPS. In 2007, righties posted a .730 OPS against, and lefties a .727 OPS against. His ability to get out lefties speaks to the quality of his changeup when it’s on. In 2007, his GB:FB splits against lefties was even more impressive, getting 73 GB to 33 FB. His pedestrian numbers against RHB indicates to me that his curveball might be slightly behind his changeup in terms of effectiveness.

The parallel I like to draw is with Carlos Carrasco. The Phillies compared Garcia very favorably to Carrasco when he was signed. Unlike Carrasco, the Phillies haven’t rushed Garcia, taking him one level at a time. Carrasco was rushed to Lakewood, and the results were disastrous. Carrasco’s breakout at Lakewood in 2006 also came in his age 19 season. Carrasco posted better strikeout numbers, but walked more than a batter more per 9. One other area of interest to me is looking at Garcia’s inning by inning numbers. He struggled in the first inning of games, allowing an .839 OPS, and issuing 7 walks in only 19 innings. His OPS allowed dropped to .662 in the 2nd inning, dropped even further to .504 in the 3rd inning before rising to .758 in 4th innings, and then dropping again to .652 in 5th innings. He appeared to run out of gas in the 6th inning of games, posting a 1.017 OPS allowed in 13.2 IP. His groundball tendencies also slip as the game progresses, indicating he might start to elevate the ball as he runs out of gas. This could lend some credit to BA thinking he’s destined for relief, but it could also indicate that he’s still only 19, and it was his first attempt at a full season league. A quick glance at Carrasco’s 2006 shows a similar pattern in terms of GB rates declining in later innings, though he seemed to hold his stuff better.

Garcia handled his jump to full season ball much better, as a whole, and his peripherals, to me at least, indicate a chance for improvement. Baseball America is already writing him off as a bullpen candidate, but I still see him as a starter. He now has a full season under his belt, his peripherals were still fine as a whole, and his groundball abilities improved in 2007. I expect him to head to Clearwater, log 140-150 innings with a BB/9 in the 2.2-2.3 range, striking out around 7 per 9, and lowering his H/9 back down to the 8.5 range. He’ll be only 20 years old in 2008, again young for his level, and I see his prospect status again rising.

9 thoughts on “2008 Breakout candidate; Edgar Garcia”

  2. Prospects are such a crapshoot. Edgar Garcia is a fine choice to have a breakout season, as he’s been thought of highly before and then forgotten. We know he has the stuff–hence, the “prospect” label–and hope he finds it in a new year at a new level. Of course if anyone could regularly pick the players who’ll have “breakout” seasons, that person should be our next GM!

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  3. I think Garcia is very nice choice.

    I think Joe Deptford (sp.) said Garcia. He/she spelled it “Garica” but I think he meant Garcia.

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  5. Nice choice. Garcia suffers by comparison to Carrasco because the latter developed a very good changeup at such a tender age; it’s almost unfair to hold prospects to the standard that Carrasco set in his age 19 year at Lakewood (159.0 IP — 3.67 BB/9 — 8.98 K/9 — 5.82 H/9 — 0.34 HR/9).

    Of course, Garcia’s quietly solid campaign didn’t go unnoticed; all due credit to allentown and Nick, who had Garcia at 6 and 7, respectively, in their Top 30 lists.

    If the Phils can get a breakout year from one or two guys like Garcia, and if the top prospects make decent progress this year, we could be looking at a system that’s much better in the arms department next year than it was this year. Having Carrasco, Outman, and Savery knocking on the door for 2009 with Garcia, Bastardo and Naylor progressing nicely up the ladder would be cause for some optimism for once.

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  6. top pitching prospects show domination at the lower levels, even if only at certain times. it is one thing to say someone gets tired. but this guy struggles in the 1st and 6th inning. and he isn’t exactly lights out in between. i don’t see domination at any point with him. contrast him to drabek, who has high K rates and electric stuff. now there is a prospect that you can say (if healthy) can develop some stamina and focus and become an elite pitcher. yes, drabek struggled, but he also dominated at times. same with CC. i think that garcia is a stretch to put in the breakout category. to me, break out candidates are ones with electric stuff, but haven’t been able to piece it together consistently for a full game. like a football player that has to learn that the game is 4 quarters long. i know that you hate this guy, but to me a breakout candidate is golson. he is a guy that flashes dominance at times. he is also very young. if he learns to be more patient he can develop. he seems to do much better at each level as the season goes on, including the AFL, where he ended the season very nicely (i think a hit in the last 8 games and several multi-hit games). Drabek (if healthy) would be another guy who flashes dominance with electric tools but hasn’t put it all together. i also wouldn’t be surprised to see quinten berry be a very fast riser this year and maybe end up in philly for call ups.

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  7. I understand what you’re saying, but I disagree with a few things.

    1. Garcia has a low 90’s fastball and a good changeup. He doesn’t throw 97, and he doesn’t have Drabek’s curveball, but he has maybe the best control in the entire system. Pitchers who generally struggle to adapt to higher levels do so because of very poor control. As you move higher up the ranks, hitters chase few pitches out of the zone. Garcia isn’t a soft tossing junk baller, he has good stuff, but where he’s struggled is putting guys away. A guy with his control, if he can refine his curveball, will start striking out more guys.

    2. The purpose of highlighting “breakout” candidates is to find guys who are possibly under the radar, who’s numbers indicate they might improve. Garcia was ranked fairly low on the Reader Top 30, he’s dropped down the BA list, so I’d say he’s a guy that is pretty undervalued, and that’s why I chose him. I can’t call Drabek a breakout prospect for a few reasons.

    a.) He is coming off a major injury, no way to know what to expect, or when to expect it
    b.) He had control issues in A ball. I’m sure that is related to the injury, but I want to see him healthy before I make any other judgments.
    c.) Everyone still ranks him very highly and still expects a lot out of him, he’s not really under anyone’s radar

    3. I don’t “hate” Golson. But I have a hard time predicting he’ll be a breakout guy when his walk rate dropped in 2007 and his strikeout rate went up, while he didn’t show a major power spike. Those who expect him to break out are doing so only on hope and wishcasting, not based on his actual on field performance. I hope he does have a big 2008, but looking at his peripherals, I don’t expect it.

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  9. obviously im a little late on this one, but i worked in batavia when edgar was there, and then coach bill bliss said that edgar was someone they were high on and that he had something you couldnt teach he kept a few MPH in his back pocket, he threw 91-92 but when he needed a strike, he could reach back and run it up to 95-96. he seems to have a relatively high ceiling, but people have soured on him, the other issue was that he threw alot before coming to US, and was counted on to throw long outings in the lower levels i remember when he threw a complete game and he threw 122 pitches, it was like dusty baker coaching. he seems to be doing something right, and hopefully hell pan out, hes still young

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