As we all know, the winter meetings are in full force, and everyone is talking trade. Today I pose an open-ended question. Based on the lack of strength of our top 4-5 prospects in comparison with other teams, do we have any “untouchable” prospects? Would you be pissed if Carrasco and Cardenas were traded as part of a package for Erik Bedard or Dan Haren? Is the composition of the major league team, in a zone where they are likely going to contend for the next 3-4 years, dictating that we trade prospects now to add that final piece and push us over the top? I have my opinions on this, but I want to see what the general view is.
57 thoughts on “Phillies prospects, trade edition”
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Phuture Phillies 
No carrasco. No Savery. Due to the fact that we have utley locked up at the major league level for years to come and cardenas cant play another position (most likely), I would say he is expendable. Everyone else can go, although I wouldn’t like to see a trade this year, i think the Phils are fine with the team they have now.
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Cardenas should be tradeable(in the RIGHT deal only) for the reasons posted above. If Carrasco(and other parts, of course) can bring back a youngish stud pitcher, you make the move. This team is in good shape with age, but the window won’t be open forever.
If they traded these top prospects, I’d hope they put more $$ into next year’s draft.
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I’d have to consider the offer and the prospects requested. Given that IMO the only dire need the Phillies have would be at 3B, I’d probably trade a top 5 and another mid-level (Golson, Jaramillo) for a quality 3b like Atkins. I’d up the ante for Santana. Otherwise, I’d hold onto what we got
– Jeff
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I’m generally against the idea of trading top prospects, especially with the increasing importance of young controllable players in a crazy economic market.
But given that this team has, as you said, a 3-4 year window to contend, I’m not opposed to moving Cardenas or Carrasco if the right deal comes along. I’d prefer to hold onto Savery for the time being. I don’t think anyone’s untouchable, but it would have to be in a deal for one of the big pitchers on the market (i.e. Bedard or Haren)… and that isn’t going to happen.
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remember folks Savery isnt eligible to trade yet, so saying that we shouldnt trade him is moot
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I would resist trading Carrasco, Cardenas, Outman, Drabek & Savery (if he’s eligible). I know thats the meat of the Phillies system but if those guys go all of a sudden its a bottom 5 farm system again.
That said, it all depends on the return. Although highly unlikely, in a trade for a top talent like Bedard, Haren or even a hitter like Bay, no one is untouchable.
However, if it’s a deal for anyone else I hope none of the aforementioned players is involved.
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I would hold on to:
Joe Savery (Can’t be traded yet but NO, even if he could be), Kyle Drabek (TJ surgery gauntees he won’t be traded but is probably a better righty than Carrasco), Dominic Brown, Lou Marson.
The rest of our top 10 according to BA is up for grabs if and only if we could pull in a Bedard/Haren type. Doubt we could get them but would trade any of these guys:
Carlos Carrasco
Adrian Cardenas
Josh Outman
Greg Golson
Drew Carpenter
Jason Jaramillo
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I’m not against trading prospects if you get a semi-long-term benefit. I dislike trading prospects for a short-term rental. With that said, I would trade a Cardenas for a 3rd baseman. I’d give up anyone (2 and 3) for Santana and maybe Haren (and a long-term deal).
I also don’t mind keeping prospects like Cardenas. At some point, an injury to Howard or Utley could cause some shifting of the infield. If Cardenas is ready and he comes up and shows himself. He’ll bring a lot more in trade. Last year, the Phils needed to get Iguchi for a short-term rental. Having Cardenas or Donald waiting in the wings, isn’t a bad thing.
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To get a Haren/Bedard we would basically have to let them have their pick of whoever they wanted of about 4-5 guys, and then I still don’t think we have the polished prospects yet to make that happen. In a year from now we could be in good shape if drabek comes back strong, savery and carrasco both have great seasons, and guys like marson, outman, golson, brown, and berry continue to improve.
So would I mind in any of these guys were traded no if it was in the right otherwise I say hold on to what we got and let them continue to progress..
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With the current salary dynamics in baseball, every team not named the Yankees or Red Sox (and even them right now) must have lower paid higher performing guys to be successful. To do that, you must have a minor league system producing players worthy. The Phils’ current system is not deep with A talent although they’ve restocked themselves with more B talent than they had and that could help down the road also but its the A talent that wins while the B talent supports. What position player in their system is an A talent? I don’t believe you should ever trade A talent unless you get A talent in return and can afford paying it for more than a year or two. The Phils will be paying Utley, Howard, and Rollins well in the immediate future and Myers and Hamels are not far behind. I don’t believe in mortgaging the future but in planning on how to make the parts fit. Who plays LF in 2 years? If they don’t keep Rowand, it might just be Burrell. Do you make a run at Jason Bay?
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I don’t think any of the current prospects are “untouchable.” I think it comes down to what the return is. If you can get a quality major league pitcher for Carrasco, Cardenas and one of the other young pitchers, I think you make the deal. There are 4 or 5 starting pitching prospects that could be major league ready in 2009-2010 and probably only 2-3 rotation spots open at that time. Why not package a couple of them to upgrade now?
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I don’t think we can get a top pitcher via trade because our farm just doesn’t have enough to get it, but could we do a 3-way trade w/ the Tigers and Twins and pry Maybin away? That would be sweet!!
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Well, here’s my take. The major league roster is largely set at most positions
C: Ruiz looks good for a while
1B: Locked up for 4-5 years
2B: Locked up for 4-5 years
SS: Locked up for 3-4 years
3B is a problem. The OF positions are tough to really gauge. Outfield is probably the easiest position to fill via free agency, and Gillick has done even better by going to the scrap heap and getting really cheap outfielders like Dobbs and Werth. Our pitching is a problem, but everyone’s pitching is a problem. We have Hamels locked up for 4-5 more years, and Myers for 2 more, so we have a 1-2 there. We’re not a team like Baltimore, who has one young star in Markakis then a lot of old drech around him. We don’t need to lean on our farm system to churn out 3 major league starting players a year, because our payroll is in the top 6-8 clubs and will remain close to 100 million for the foreseeable future.
Knowing this, I’d empty out the farm now. If you can get Erik Bedard or Dan Haren, you go get him. While Carlos Carrasco has great potential, he’s still in the “injury zone” for young pitchers. Cardenas can rake, but he’s a man without a position. Dominic Brown, sure, lots of potential, but he hasn’t even played full season ball. Outman? Great fastball, but poor control. If a team wants to trade you established major league commodities signed for 2+ seasons, I think you do it. My one caveat here is that they can’t be cheap with the next 3 drafts. You’ll need to re-fill the system with impact guys so that when Utley, Rollins and Howard get closer to free agency, you have some options.
Just my take.
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What do you think of Blanton? Would he be worth trading for? He wouldn’t cost as much as Haren and would be an upgrade. He also pitched more inns. than any of our pitchers. However the As GM will probably hold out for much more than we can give him.
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There is no easy answer; these things should be looked at on a case-by-case basis. But if you held my feet to the fire, I’d say no prospects should be untouchable in a deal for the likes of Santana, Bedard or Haren. These aces are at the top of a very short list. The fact that they are available is surprising to begin with.
Given our talent at the major league level, and a lack of depth in the starting rotation, the Phillies don’t have much choice but to go for it. Imagine if Santana or Bedard go to the Mets because the Phillies wouldn’t part with a prospect.
I would NOT recommend indiscriminately trading top prospects for position players, which are clearly more readily available than dominant starting pitchers.
Starting pitching will make or break the Phillies in 2008. To have a chance, we need one more stud to go with Hamels and Myers. Without a Big Three, we’re not likely to repeat, especially since the top 2 starters aren’t exactly 200-inning iron-men.
Only a dominant Big Three pitcher will give the Phillies the edge they need. If the choices aren’t as appealing as Santana, Bedard and Haren, and to a lesser extent, Willis, then protecting prospects makes more sense. Lesser starters, #4s and #5s, are even less likely to put the Phillies over the top and therefore not worth trading away your future.
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no one is untouchable for an ace. you HOPE that the prospects can be an ace. but 99% c hance that they won’t be. bedard is an ace. santana is an ace. haren is an ace.
i’d do whatever it takes to get bedard. this team is win now. not win 3 years later when most of these guys will be ready.
the only player i’d be hesitant to trade is marson. dunno, just like him.
this offense with these great pitchers would decimate the NL this year.
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I would trade any 3 players in our minors for Harren or Bedard (assuming we aren’t close on Santana). Take your pick. Have at it. I would fax over an empty agreement with my signature on it if I was the Phillies GM. Just write in 3 names in the minors and fax it to the league office. Just please also include me on the fax so that I can call the players. If you don’t want to include me on the fax, that is fine too. I’ll read about it in the papers.
Two reasons:
1. We are very, very close to being a true contendor. Our offense is in their prime. These times do not come around often. Now is the time to make the big move.
2. I honestly don’t think that we have a future all-pro in our minor leagues right now. I think that Carrassco is over rated. Cardenas might be a legit player, but i don’t think that he will develop pop in his bat and he is 2-3 years away. We won’t really miss him. Savery is all on potential and injury prone. I also don’t like that his SO total is low both in college and in the low minor leagues. Truth is, most of these prospects never pan out. Outman, Golson, Donald – we wouldn’t even know you were gone.
But with our offense and a rotation of Bedard, Hamels, Meyers our 1-2-3 can compete with anyone out there. Game on, let’s do this!
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I totally agree that no one in the farm system is untouchable. If there is a quality starter available, like Dontrelle Willis, the Phillies should consider trading for him from their overall organizational strengths–left-handed pitching, catcher, and middle infield. If something like Outman/Jaramillo/Donald could net us a quality starter for more than a one-year rental, then we should do it. I don’t like the idea of trading away a top pitching prospect, but our top guys seem to have serious control issues, and i’m sure at least one of them won’t work out. (My guess: Outman)
So, let’s get ourselves another quality starting pitcher to help us finally win during this remaining 2-4 year window when we have utley/howard/rollins/hamels/myers locked up and healthy.
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I think Willis may be the one guy I wouldn’t overpay for. I might be in the minority with him, but his numbers last year scared me and coupled with his windup, scream “arm injury” to me. If I could get him on the cheap (which isn’t possible), I would of course.
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Let me turn this around a bit….in 2003, would you have traded Ryan Howard at the trade deadline (when he was in AAA)to get Barry Zito? And if Zito put us over the top and we won the WS (a reach but go with me here), and Howard won ROY in 2005 and MVP in 2006 for Oakland. Would you consider this a bad deal? Move the prospects now to win now. We waited too long.
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Don’t trade prospects, just spend the $/years to sign a FA. At this point Silva or Lohse or a Japanese pitcher. Benson as a big fall back. We need a pitcher this year because we moved Gio, Floyd, and Maloney in one-year rental deals, one of which was a major flop. If we trade Carrasco/Outman, we will need another farm raid to get another expensive rental next year. That is no way to build a team. Plus, Gillick stinks in these big off-season deals. We will have more talent available and more reasonably priced later in the season. For now, dumpster dives and FA.
I’ll ask the same question here that I asked on another forum. When have the Phillies traded for a pitcher and extended him as part of the trade or shortly thereafter. I can’t think of a one, going back to Ashby, Millwood, Milton, Wagner, Garcia, Lohse, Moyer, Lidle. We extended or tried to extend guys after their contracts were expired/about to expire as we did with Wagner and we actually resigned Millwood with that timing, but nothing close to contemporaneous with a trade. That is because our management likes short contracts and a lot of the pitchers we trade for have little desire to be in Philly.
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I use to be firmly against trading prospects in a trade. However, considering how few prospects ever turn out to be great, I have now changed my stance and would offer up just about anyone in the system for a solid starter. Remember, even Carrasco isn’t a lock to be a star, and he certainly isn’t top 10 amongst prospects, probably not even top 20, and he’s our #1 prospect. So yes, I would trade Cardenas, Carrasco and just about anyone else for a top starter.
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You guys can scratch Willis off the list of potential trade candidates…. the fish traded him AND Miguel Cabrera to the tigers for a bunch of prospects.
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In the right deal, anyone can be traded. Look what Detroit just did. That is a team that wants to win. I see Carrasco being like a Daniel Cabrera type so I’d have no problem trading him. I would like Blanton. The only thing you don’t want to do is trade too many of them. There needs to be something coming from the minors.
I’d also have no problem trading any position player. They are easy to find. While Cardeneas should become a pretty good hittere, I would still trade him in the right deal.. It;s not like he is a stud prospect that all of MLB is talking about.
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Gillick is doing a good job! Think about it, a trade for Santana, Haren, or Bedard would completely clean out any hopes of building a farm system. Our Farm System is basically in the big league right now, Rollins, Hamels, Meyers, Utley, Howard, not bad for a farm system. Gillick is not spending money on people that are not worth it, Who Silva, no, he would be an Eaton type signing, with a small upside. Lohse may be the only legit FA out there and he is going to get way too much money, Twins fans can attest, he was there a few years ago. They have a young Offensive core and a small, young pitching beginning. The Phil’s are doing the right thing by searching for a 1 year deal for a Starter who needs to prove himself.
They could not sign Santana to a long term contract 5 yrs $150 mill is what he wants, as far as Bedard and Haren, they would not be with the Phil’s long after a trade or else their teams would not be willing to trade them away.
Carasco has potential, maybe not a #2 but definitely at 3 or 4. Cardenas is projected to be a MLB Left fielder, it is easier for a guy that has some wheels to move to the outfield than vice versa. Outman is a longer term prospect he is still working on mechanics changes. Savery too early to tell.
The OF, Burrell will beg one after this year, Werth may or may not be here, if he does really well, he prices himself out of Philly if he does well maybe they resign him because the Phil’ s gave him a chance coming back from injury. They would then have Vic in CF and who? Maybe Golson, maybe a FA or maybe Cardenas.
Phil’s history shows they will not go crazy on spending money on a big name FA, they need to worry about signing Howard long term and finding the right pieces to fill around Howard, Rollins, Utley, Meyers, and Hamels. They have a couple of prospects that can fill around them and then need to find a couple of appropriate FA’s to support.
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I posted this in the Phillies forum, but I absolutely think this Phillies have an opportunity to recreate the late 70’s/1980 all over again. Phillies dominance lasted from 1976 – 1981. We should not wait for the prospects to mature IF we can get a Bedard or a Haren. We must regenerate Rowand’s projected production via a new thirdbaseman or Rowand. The key component is a third very good starter. This would allow them to compete in post season. If we wait for Carrasco, Cardenas and the other young pitchers to come forth it’s possible that they might not become what we need or that when they do become what we need Utley , Howard, and Rollins will be past their prime. This team has the potential to win the pennant for a few years. It also has the potential to merely chase it. I do not know what the team’s potential is 4 or 5 years from now.
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No prospect is untouchable, including Carrasco/Cardenas. However, we’re just beginning to build up pitching depth, so I’d really want to keep at least one of Carrasco/Outman/Savery if we were to put together a monster package for a Bedard/Haren type stud.
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Prospects the Phillies didn’t trade:
Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Myers, Hamels, Kendrick
Basically the whole team. Even Eaton. Even Silva, a prospect who was traded and who many now want to buy back.
Don’t trade prospects.
As for the “window of opportunity,” Carrasco, Outman, Savery, Golson, Jaramillo and/or other prospects are more likely to contribute to getting over the top during that window than any trade.
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Seems like Gillick is getting deperate for pitching. Paul Hagen in the Daily News is reporting that Carrasco is avalable: “Gillick indicated he might be willing to part with a prized prospect, such as righthander Carlos Carrasco, if the right pitcher became available.”
So far Gillick has moved in his two years Dubee, Barb, Baldwin, Gio, Floyd and Maloney from the pitching rich farm system. At least we still have Jamie Moyer to show for it.
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i agree with Bellman. Don’t trade long term prospects for short term solutions. None of those Garcia for Gio Gonzalez trades!
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Dan Haren and Erick Bedard are not “Freddy Garcias” at all.
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bedard has like 250k’s and missed more than a month of the season. he could of realistically had over 300k’s last year. he’s under control for two years. and he’s an ace.
no one in our system will become an ace or put up hitting equivalent statistics of an ace. DO IT.
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“So far Gillick has moved in his two years Dubee, Barb, Baldwin, Gio, Floyd and Maloney from the pitching rich farm system. At least we still have Jamie Moyer to show for it.”
Aside from Gio (who would have been worth trading if Garcia wasnt a lemon) who is really missed on your list? Maloney MIGHT be okay but I doubt we would have made the playoffs without Lohse, so it was a good trade.
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I think Blanton would be a guy to go after. Both him and Haren will be over priced but maybe we have the prospects to get Blanton.
Also I am not really worried about the mets because it seems no one wants their prospects.
Now does seem like the time to strike and get a pitcher though, since the Marlins are without their best player, the Nationals, while getting better are not their yet, and the Braves have not made significant increases to their pitching. Glavine ain’t scaring anyone.
The Mets have not done anything….since August.
That leaves us, and 1 very good pitcher could push us over the top. Even a Blanton would tip the scales in our favor. Just thinking more and more that this might be our oppurtunity to have a hold on this divison this yr especially since the Mets are going to have a TON of cash coming off the books next yr.
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Some posts for comment:
“The Phil’s are doing the right thing by searching for a 1 year deal for a Starter who needs to prove himself.”
— This is no way to win a World Series. Why acquire another question mark for the rotation? What we need is a true Big Three starter. Nothing else will do.
“Don’t trade long term prospects for short term solutions.”
— This depends on the short term solution. Doesn’t anyone else want to win a World Series? I would gladly trade away two or three future seasons for one championship season. So would most players. The idea isn’t to collect prospects, it’s to win. Of course we’d rather build a dynasty, but let’s win one first.
“Don’t trade prospects, just spend the $/years to sign a FA.”
— This doesn’t leave a lot of room for flexibility. Some FA signings cost draft picks, anyway. Besides, the Phillies are clearly NOT a top tier team like the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets. They just don’t compete for the top-priced talent most of the time. And FA pitchers don’t usually rank Philly as a top destination due to the press, fans, weather and the flyball home runs. Like it or not, this leaves slim FA pickings for Philly.
Again, these things have to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. But the trick is to collect THREE TOP STARTERS which will match up against any other team’s top three. Otherwise, odds are, you’ll lose three out of five games against the teams with a true Big Three. And in the playoffs, there’s nothing more important than starting a better pitcher than your opponent for four of seven games.
After all those years watching Atlanta own the division, didn’t we learn anything? Build around a Big Three. It starts and ends right there. At the moment, the Phillies have Big Two and a handful of 4s and 5s. This just won’t get it done.
I’d trade 6 or 7 prospects for Bedard and Mora if I could come up with a fair combination. No, they aren’t worth each of our top 6 prospects, but 3 of them would have to go. Of course, dealing prospects is contingent on contract status and possibly extensions so that it doesn’t end up as a one-year rental. If we could acquire Bedard alone for less, then do it. 3d base isn’t a top priority. And as much as I like Rowand, neither is CF.
Bottom line: build a Big Three or hope for a miracle. The clock is ticking, the fate of the 2008 season hangs in the balance.
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I love the folks who say just trade the prospects, since few work out, and also point to all the home-grown talent on the big Phillies. Well, that’s examples about 1 through a dozen of prospect talent that does indeed work out. Then we have the argument that the window of opportunity is closing. Except it isn’t. We will have Rollins, Utley,Howard, Hamels well into the careers of guys like Carrasco, Mathieson, Happ, Outlaw who clearly are a part of the homegrown talent that should be manning, and extending, the window of opportunity.
Then there is the statement that players would rather win a WS than just consistently contend or reach the playoffs. Which players are these? The ones already under contract and the guys who might be brought in for a season or two, or the ones who will look at a depleted Phillies system in 2009 and 2010 and as FA candidates say thanks, but no thanks. Then there is the low probability of the Phillies plus Bedard being strong enough to win the WS anyway.
Patience is a virtue. Build from within. That is where the strength of this team came from. The Phillies have chased the will-of-the-wisp big name in a trade that would push us over the top for years. It never worked. Last year we made it because of the dumpster dives and homegrown guys, including a Kendrick brought up from deeper in the minors than Carrasco/Outman/Castro/Mathieson/Happ are today, not the magic elixir of Garcia and Eaton. Those two almost cost us the post-season. Avoid the siren song of trading the future for the name of the moment. Continue to do what has actually worked.
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But patience has won us what? 1 divison title since ’93 and still no playoff wins.
Detroit sold the farm for 2 players and guess what they will rebuild their farm in 2 yrs and this trade won’t hurt them at all. Plus they still have a very good pitching prospect. It just
If we can get 1 pitcher at the cost of 3-4 prospects than why the heck not. I wouldn’t want to give up our top 4 prospects but I would give up nearly anyone for Bedard and I think we can actually get Blanton if we tried.
But the time is now, in 2 yrs everyone will be older, our bullpen will be a mess and need rebuilding, and Myers may be gone.
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Myers needn’t be gone if the Phillies are willing to pay him. Yes, the position players will be a couple years older, but not old enough that we should be expecting any sort of significant falloff. Utley, Victorino, Ruiz should still be on an uptrend, as should Hamels. And no reason to expect we have to wit two years for Outlaw and Carrasco. Nor reason we have to wait even one year for Mathieson, Happ, and Castro — they should be ready to help the major league club sometime in 2008.
This talk about one division title since 1993 is just so much historic boo-hoo-hoo. What happened before 2000 really has no relevance to what the Phillies strategy should be. It is more accurate to say 1 post-season and a couple of really close misses in just the last 4 seasons, with no reason to believe we need to sell the farm to duplicate that in the next two seasons.
It is possible that Detroit will rebuild its farm in the next two seasons. But then, Detroit is one of those teams willing to seriously bust slot and spend a lot on the draft to ramp up its farm. The Phillies have shown they are not willing to be one of those teams. Unless they make that switch, or at least become mega-players in Latin America as the Mets were this past year, the Phillies certainly would not rebuild the farm in the next 2 years.
No reason at all to assume our bullpen needs to be a mess in two years. The loss of Gordon is hardly a huge blow.
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Sell the farm for what it’s worth for the next three years like the Tigers did…
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Erik Bedard and Dan Haren are great pitchers, but are they really worth the whole farm system. Yes, the phillies farm system is weak but its starting to become a good group of prospects. The phillies have a core of young prospects that one day could really help us. I think Carrasco is a good pitcher and might develp into number 3. Same with Savery. The one I wouldnt let go is Cardenas. This kid has a great bat and maybe play third or left when Burrell leaves. Throwing the farm system is never a good idea, cause in three years we will be pissed that we threw it away as Bedard and Haren leave via free agency. Then were right back at square one. Keep the farm and develop these kids to contribute when needed. Then we dont have to go out and sign a wes helms or barajas. They can bring someone them up to help.
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But by saying that we shouldn’t trade these guys, we’re basically saying that we don’t have aspirations of winning the division. Lets face it, we won the division by 1 game, and it took a historical collapse for us to do that. If we enter 2008 as is, I think the Mets win the division, unless we got a ton of lucky breaks and remain injury free.
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The mets have only gotten worse this off-season so far. I think the phillies have to be the favorites to win the divison. Im just saying, they dont need to throw away the farm for bedard or haren. They need to be smart when dealing with prospects. What happens in 2 years when Carrasco and Cardenas should be ready to play and there helping some other team. The could use them instead of over paying for free agents that they could have filled in.
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Many goo points on here. Someone wrote haven’t we learned anything from the braves? Ummmm yes, their Big 3 were home grown, they built a farm system and won a whole lot of titles. It is hard to believe that people think in 3 years when Carsaco, Cardenas, possibly Outman and Savery can contribute, that Utley, Rollins, Howard will be past their prime, tht is just crazy. Hamles will be rolling, Kendrick, I feel will come into his own and be a good #3-#4 pitcher. If you have 1 or 2 younger guys than you can go out and find a helpful FA pitcher.
Problem with all of this discussion is that Gillick may indeed be ready to do something. He is not stupid, he saw that last year the Phil’s were in a spot to take over the NL East, that is why he traded for Garcia, just think if he was the 15-18 game winner of old. Everyone would have praised Gillick for that move. I think he still feels the same way and may try to do it again. Truth is we do need another top 1-2 pitcher to win in ’08 and begin a streak of playoff berths and World Series Contenders, but sacrificinf the future may not be worth, because we would be having these same comversations in 3 years when we have Hamels and Kendrick without any new young pitchers!
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We backed into the division title this year, and I believe it would be a tremendous shame to return to bridesmaid
status (or worse) in ’08. The Phillies have an outstandingly
strong nucleus to work with, but we all know the name of
the game is solid pitching. We need a solid and reliable
top 3 at least, and, as a skeptic, I can see question marks
alongside all 5 of our starters. That means that we must
get one or two very solid starters (I’m not talking Colon,
Benson, or all the other health risks out there), and to
do that we must be prepared to do whatever it takes
(including unloading prized farmhands). We should be
working towards winning multiple division titles in a row
and starting to build a dynasty with that strong nucleus.
Personally, I am fed up with the scrimping and scrounging
mentality (“being competitive” is good enough) that has permeated this organization under the present management.
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MLB Trade Rumors mentioned that there’s trade chatter on 610 WIP concerning a package for Bedard built around Kendrick, Victorino, Carrasco, and possibly others.
While that’s likely not even enough to get a deal done, I think it winds up creating more problems than answers for the Phils. There’s no one to replace Victorino in the outfield and trading Kendrick means you’re not so much filling a hole in your rotation as you are just creating a different one. Obviously Bedard is fantastic, but even if the Orioles would make that deal, I don’t know if it makes sense for the Phils.
Then again, since it’s WIP, I don’t know how much stock you can put into it.
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if you trade victorino, you re-sign rowand. nothing lost. so the deal is really, carrasco and kendrick + another for bedard and victorino for rowand. the first one is a slam dunk and the second is a wash. you have to look at it that way because we won’t sign rowand any other way. even without rowand, we still have enough in our line-up to be in the top 5 in runs scored.
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Hard to listen to rumors! People keep talking about a dynasty, if we can agree the Braves were a dynasty. Their payroll was well below the Phil’s current. They built the dynasty through the farm system. They made goo decisions time and time again. Seeling a bunch of solid, low cost, current players and prospects projected to help 1 year away is not how you build a dynasty. The payroll is where it is for past bad decisions, but the team lacks some key parts. Bad decision list: Poor trades, Burrell’s early huge contract with no trade, Abreu’s contract with no trade, both of these guys would have been gone sooner if the no-trade was not in effect, and we would have recieved something in return. There is not anyone to show for the Thome deal, Garcia deal, Abreu deal. Most of this has been fixing problems of the past. If a deal can be made for Bedard that cankeep the current rotation, Hamels, Meyers, Kendrick, and Moyer, plus giving up 1 pitching prospect and 1 or 2 other prospects then it is probably a good idea. Trading all of your young talent, is not how you build a dynasty.
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The Phillies best move, which doesn’t hurt the farm or our prospects for competing in 2009-2012 is to simply sign Silva as a FA. My second choice is Lohse.
Yes, you can trade Victorino and resign Lohse. All it takes is $70 mill.
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you also don’t build dynasties with bringing up average players. with our farm system dripping one player a year, we will never build a dynasty. the 2007 addition was a #4 starter. kendrick is a nice player, but not what builds dynasties. 2008 doesn’t look to bring in anything. 2009, maybe carraco, that is if he can develop to get AA batters out. the braves won so much with Glavin (farm); Smoltz (trade); Maddux (FA). With our line-up, now is the time to mortgage the future and win. Bedard is young and will be in our rotation for another 5-8 years, barring injury. carrasco might never make it. neither might any of the other players in our bottom 5 farm system. we simply don’t have good prospects. i know we all want to have great ones, but the reality is we don’t.
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My point on trading prospects now is pretty simple. We’re in a position where, for the next 3 years, we are reasonably set at 1B, 2B, SS, and C, and we have 2 young starters under control. If you keep Victorino, you’re set at CF too. That means we need to address 3B, and after this season, left field. We’re not in the Oakland payroll range, where we have to rely on our farm to produce 4 MLB regulars every year because we can’t spend. Spending on mediocre free agents isn’t fun, but as it currently stands, in 2 years, I don’t see any of our prospects in the current farm making an impact. We have very few high ceiling/reasonable probability guys in our system right now. Golson is a high ceiling guy with extremely low probability. Beyond him, Lou Marson is our best well rounded prospect, and he’ll attempt AA this year. Guys like Mattair and Galvis are 4 years away.
Our needs right now are pitching, 3B, and corner OF spots. I don’t think it’s logical to expect all of Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, and Happ to contribute positively to the big league team in 2008 and 2009. There’s a good chance one of them blows out his arm, there’s an even better chance that they all remain fringe guys. Carrasco could take a step forward and establish himself as a #3 starter for 2009, but more than likely it’s mid 2009.
In 3 years, the guys in the very bottom of our system like Mattair, Myers, Brown, Savery, Galvis, and Bastardo will be closer to contributing. No one is really talking about trading those guys, we’re talking about trading our question mark players at the higher end of the system. If Gillick drafts wisely in June 2008, and again in June 2009, and we hit on one of our Latin American signings, the farm won’t be in any worse shape in 2010 than it is now, and there’s a reasonably good chance it will be better than it is now.
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exactly!
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In a wierd way I think maybe Drabek getting hurt mught be a blessing since we won’t trade him and he could end up being the best pitcher out of the bunch, if he recovers hopefully. I am not saying I want any guy to get hurt. I am not that much of a scumbag.
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If we can bring in solid major league stars such as Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis like Detroit did with there minor league studs, knowing the trade will make for a solid playoff team for several years to come, I’d gladly trade Carrasco, Cardenas, Savery and whomever it takes to see the Phillies posted on the television come every October.
The team will just have to draft better while the big team is on it’s run and plan ahead for the future.
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Carrasco and Outman have fewer questionmarks than just about anyone in the system. Drabek and Savery both have bigger question marks. Guys like Mattair have vastly bigger question marks.
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Carrasco and Outman both have moderate to troubling control issues. Neither are going to help the club in 2008. If they don’t improve their control, they are both back of the rotation guys. Their perceived value may trump their actual value at this point.
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Well at least we have 2009!!!!!……:(
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