From Baseball America today
“He’s improved so much,” the scout said. “I know that’s hard to believe given the amount of strikeouts he’s had, but I’m a believer and I know I’m far from the only one.
“I didn’t think he’d ever have the tools to play when I saw him as an amateur–he was just real rough at the plate and I didn’t think he’d have enough instincts, but his tools are very, very good.
“It doesn’t surprise me he led the minors in strikeouts because he’s still a is a top-hand, layout guy that’s knobbed up right away so the low pitch–wherever it is in the zone–is going to kill him.
“But he’s an 80 arm with 80 speed . . . those guys with those kind of tools . . . if he figures it out . . . wow. He could be a late bloomer.
“This is one of those guys that you don’t ever want to give up on despite what the numbers say. You fall in love with him. It’s hard not to. And this is a smart kid who just turned 22. If he leaves his brain in the clubhouse and just goes out there and reacts, he’s one of the best prospects in the game. I know that can be a pretty big if with some guys, but you can’t just throw this guy away.”
Hmmm. I get what the scouts are saying, I understand the tools, but if he is improving, it’s certainly not showing up in his numbers, and really, what are you left with? Different scouts see different things. One guy says he sees improvement, another might say just the opposite. Golson’s numbers are really all that we, common fans, have to go on
2004, age 18 (RK): .115 ISO — 5.2% BB — 28.0% K — 26.0% XBH
2005, age 19 (A-): .125 ISO — 6.4% BB — 26.0% K — 31.3% XBH
2006, age 20 (A/A+): .141 ISO — 5.1% BB — 27.0% K — 35.4% XBH
2007, age 21 (A+/2A): .153 ISO — 3.8% BB — 28.5% K — 33.3% XBH
You know, maybe they have a point, but maybe not. His isolated power has slowly increased since his rookie season, but notice, I say “slowly”, because his power really hasn’t spiked, it’s been a very gradual climb. Over the same span, his walk rate has dipped since 2005 in pretty drastic fashion, while his K rate has gone up. More of his hits are going for extra base hits, indicating he might be making better contact and might be using his speed a bit more. But, on the whole, he’s still not a guy I can get excited about, and that’s not me being negative, it’s just me saying that he’s now had 4 years as a pro, he can’t take a walk, and he hasn’t figured out how to tap into his raw power that supposedly exists. Under the old CBA, he’d have to be added to the 40 man roster heading into this offseason, but because of the added year, he still has 1 more year left before the Phillies have to make the decision. They’ll probably keep him around no matter what he does this year, but he really needs to put it together this year.
Phuture Phillies 
I was thinking about this the other day, if his name comes up in a trade do we (the phills) part with him or hold out hope? Another words is he more expendable since we have other outfielders who seem more promising? He’s just so so so frustrating since their is this hype and people (scouts) have all these positive things to say and then we see his ###’s and we all go…”WHAT!!!!”
But I don’t think it’ll be too hard to keep him around and protect him on the 40 man roster.
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Yes, nice to know he still has some trade value. The scout who is gushing over him tells us nothing we didn’t know on the day he was drafted. He has a really strong arm and runs really fast. And he has big holes in his swing. It would have been more encouraging if one of the scouts quoted said something to suggest his hitting was actually improving. But, it basically comes down to never give up on this great an arm and this much speed.
I still think he should be working at AFL on pitch selection and drawing walks. You’d think a guy with that much speed would recognize the value of a walk, or has Dancy worked his magic on him?
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Golson’s a guy I would be scared to trade away. He hasn’t shown nearly enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for a veteran–like Joe Nathan, my obsessive target for the Phils at the moment–but he still has way too much potential to be a fill-in.
Allentown has it exactly right in terms of what he needs to work on. If he could just get the walk rate back to 2005 level while holding on to the power improvement since then, he’d be an asset.
Based on the numbers–which as James says is all we non-scouts have to go on–Golson has always reminded me a little of Devon White, who was a pretty good big-leaguer despite never fully mastering the strike zone. If he had Devo’s career, that’s a success.
I do find this at least a little encouraging.
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It’s an odd thing – like a lot of folks I’m worried about the walks but I’m starting to soften my stance on that. And who made me do that – one Jimmy Rollins. I am a Phils season ticket holder and I would just go bananas with Rollins and his inability/unwillingness to take a walk. But if you look at his results this year – and he says it best – it’s about “production” not stats.
Now I am NOT saying Golson is another Jimmy Rollins – hasn’t shown enough yet. But with his power potential (25-30 HR’s ?) why do we have to pencil him at the top of the lineup. My guess says his K’s will level off at some point – probably still high – but his average has been decent and power ok. Take that with, from what I understand but have never seen in person, him being supposedly just a phenomenal defensive outfielder – well that’s not too shaky.
And hey – it’s easier to say since it’s not my money – but they quote something like $1.4M in the BA article – chump change by today’s standards.
Yup – that’s my optimistic spin for the day. And with the others here – if I’m not getting a sure thing in return – I’m not taking my chances in a trade.
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Well, here’s the problem with that though. It’s easy to just pick out a major league player who has a “deficiency” in his skill set and then hope for the minor leaguer to turn into that player. Rollins had better discipline than Golson in the minors.
Age 17: 14.0% BB — 10.0% K rate
Age 18: 8.5% BB — 13.1% K
Age 19: 7.6% BB — 11.6% K
Age 20: 8.7% BB — 8.0% K
Age 21: 9.4% BB — 10.6% K
Rollins drew a lot more walks and struck out FAR less than Golson has. Rollins’ power has really emerged over the last few seasons, that’s something no one could really have legitimately predicted based on his minors numbers but he always had at least average plate discipline and great contact skills, even if he didn’t hit for a high average in the minors. He also flew through the system, making it to AAA at age 20.
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We can/willl speculate on Golson, but this is strictly another wait and see situation.
The pundit shouldn’t be ignored out-of-hand; maybe there is more there than meets the stats obsessions we all have.
I’d give him 2 more seasons to get it together more…at little or no cost to the Phils’ org.
The possibilities are that he could reduce those Ks or at least improve his walks; his power so far seems to be gap-power…good for doubles and triples. Add in some HRs—maybe 15-20/season plus superior outfielding–and just maybe we’ll have a better than exspected result. The Ks ARE worrisome; time and coaching could answer that in part w/in those 2 seasons.
Wait and see. No penalty for doing same.
Those who cite every bad stat for him may find it more difficult to assess him since the minor lg fielding “stats” are unrevealing except for punditry to say he is superior in that aspect. With some instruction, he seems to promise base-stealing ability, too.
With these “goodies” we should be able to extend a bit more patience when the rewards COULD be very good.
We’ll see…but to dismiss him NOW would be foolish IMO.
As for trade value, he has little of “accomplishment” to make him attractive to others BASED ON NUMBERS. Better to “hold ’em,” rather than toss in the hand!
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Why not trade Golson if he has value?
Golson and a number of others may have to be dealt. The Phillies need two starters, two bullpen arms, a third baseman and a back up shortstop.
Pat Gillick has to work some magic this off-season. Bids should include A-Rod (seriously), Mariano Rivera, Kerry Wood, Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell, Aaron Rowand, Livan Hernandez, Joe Nathan, Kyle Loshe, Scott Linebrink.
With Nunez gone–a questionable move–they also need a back-up shortstop, unless the sound of Danny Sandoval or Gookie Dawkins excites you. Free agent options include Ceasar Izturis or Ramon E. Martinez. Not too exciting, either.
Cardenas, Harman and Donald need to play every day, not watch Rollins from the bench. No one else is ready on the farm.
What’s the answer? Acquire a starter and a back up middle infielder in a trade? How much would you have to give up for Dontrelle Willis and Robert Andino? How about Johan Santana and Nick Punto?
Somebody has to go. Might as well be Golson if it will help plug the holes. Might also have to deal Bourn or Victorino, but only if you sign Rowand. Tough call, but the pitching has to take priority.
The Phillies need two more top starters to join Cole Hamels in a Big Three. Kendrick is a (4), Moyer is a (4). Adam Eaton should be in the bullpen no matter what his paycheck reads. Eaton is a sunk cost, you can’t get the money back, but that doesn’t mean Eaton deserves a starters innings. Kyle Loshe is a (4) whether they sign him or not, which still leaves the Phillies two arms short of a Big Three.
Anything less than Santana (1), Schilling (3), Willis (3) or Brett Myers (2) won’t work.
Losing Greg Golson or anyone else is nothing compared to losing another season for lack of pitching.
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Give me some of the shit xfactor’s smoking … please!
The bids on all of those guys would be what … 100 million per year? More?
Getting rid of Nunez was a “questionable” move?
I admire your fantasy offseason, but how about a reality check.
The Phils will more than likely…
Resign Rowand
Resign Lohse
Make a run at Lowell and Rivera
And get some pitching help, but nobody with the prestige of a Santana, Willis, or Woods. By the way, Caveat Emptor on the last two.
Not to be a dick or anything, but do you really think the Teflonics will make valid offers to all of those guys on your list?
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Phuture Phillie guy. You must have missed the part where I said “I am NOT saying Golson is another Jimmie Rollins”. Thought I was pretty clear on that.
What I WAS saying that you can look at a player LIKE Rollins – who doesn’t walk – but still see “production”. One can pick out any stat (and obviously this is a “stat” blog”) and say that means the success/death of a player. I think you have to look at the whole picture. Look at last year and the beginning of this year – Burrell was walking a ton but I don’t think there weren’t a lot of folks who wouldn’t have traded him for a warm six-pack. It’s the whole package one has to look at.
And yes, I do put a little extra faith in a “National League Scout”, who I assume has no vested interest in praising Golson, who sees enough in him to be encouraged.
At the end of the day – he was a “tools guy” when we drafted him – and maybe I’m a “glass is half full guy” but I’ve seen/heard about improvement every year so I’ll keep the faith. And hey – if we had ANY decent everyday players in the organizaton on the same level (ok on Costanzo) or above him I probably wouldn’t be that patient 🙂
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is golson’s agent also a writer for ba?
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I probably qualify as a Golson defender around here, but it’s no secret that he has tremendous flaws in his game. Most of the specific criticisms that get leveled against him are valid, and it’s true that he can’t be considered a blue-chip prospect for those reasons.
The problem that I have with a lot of the Golson criticism is that it seems to be blown way out of proportion due to the fact that he was a #1 pick. While it’s very likely that picking a guy like him in that round was not a good decision, that is a separate question from how good a prospect he is right now and it’s simply a category error to take the former into consideration while assessing the latter. I think if Golson’s draft history could be momentarily erased from everyone’s minds, everyone would agree that a 21-year-old center fielder who’s already reached AA, shown real signs of XB power, and possesses tremendous speed is worth having around even if he presently has no command of the strike zone whatsoever. The idea of dumping him as a throw-in in a trade or (considering the present lack of depth in this team’s upper minors) cutting him from the 40-man wouldn’t be taken seriously. That stuff is hyperbole that gets thrown around probably because people want to indirectly vent their negative feelings toward Phillies management, or toward traditional tools-based player evaluation methods, or whatever. That’s understandable, but it isn’t really fair to Golson. The past is in the past. He’s here now, and while you can’t count on him to succeed, it’s way, way too early to even think about “giving up” on him.
The appeal of Golson is pretty simple. He’s the baseball version of Samuel Dalembert circa 2001. No way you count on him for anything, but he’s a worthwhile gamble. Just as in basketball “you can’t teach height,” you can’t teach bat speed or foot speed. You can, in contrast, teach plate discipline. It may not be easy to do it, but it’s at least possible. The suggestion that you can’t is one of the few axioms in the sabermetric canon that I’ve never found very convincing or supported by evidence.
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Funny.
No, I didn’t think they would sign all those names. But these are the guys the Phillies need to pursue in some combination. The reality check is that they won’t, but they have to answer to the fans.
They should stay in the market for A-Rod as long as they can. He’ll be worth what he gets, probably 300M. If the Phillies somehow get him for 250 M 10 yrs back-loaded, then make it happen. Not saying it will. But the Phillies should press the issue and be an active force in the process. As an owner, the chance to even bid on A-Rod is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Once the A-Rod sweepstakes are over, the Phillies need to go for Rivera and Lowell. Preferably Lowell, unless they move Myers back to the rotation. If you don’t press the issue at the top with A-Rod, its possible that you would miss out on these two as well. It might not seem comfortable to inflate the cost of labor, but you want the big spenders to feel enough pain paying A-Rod that they let some of the other names go. The luxury tax hurts. And you wouldn’t be just bluffing with A-Rod, you would love to sign him to play 3B/SS for the next 10 years. He’s not just salary, he’s revenue.
They also have to try to sign Schilling and Rowand. Schilling for two years might be more forgiving than Rowand for five. Would love to have them both but I don’t see it. Pitching takes precedence.
Gillick will probably make a blockbuster trade for a starter. I agree the Willis looks risky against RH, but he might also make adjustments and return to top form. The risk is why the Marlins would make the deal.
Imagine Hamels, Schilling, Willis, Kendrick, Moyer. And Eaton, Mathieson, Happ, Carrasco waiting in the wings.
Somehow the Phillies need to find two more of a Big Three. It might take 125M salary and a blockbuster trade, but now is the time. A window is open.
Questionable: who plays SS behind Rollins next season if not Nunez? No one on the roster, no one ready on the farm. Not saying Nunez should have stayed for 2.5 M, but who else do you have in mind for backup SS on the 25 Man roster? Not Dobbs, not Utley, not Lowell. A-Rod could. Sandoval? Don’t see it. Who? Gookie Dawkins?
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golson should start next year on the phillies 25 man roster. personally, i don;t think what he needs to learn can be learned at the minor league level, and his biggest assets (speed, arm, range) are the same ones that have been exhibited by other success stories on this team (rollins, bourn, victorino). all three have become better hitters under manuel, and the latter two have become better basestealers under lopes.
his bat might regress somewhat without regular at bats, but at least he’d showcase and sharpen his skills/
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I think i’d like to see another scout say ‘8 runner and 8 arm’. Those are extraodrinarily rare ratings (except from sparky anderson)- It may seem trivial, but never having seen him I would have guessed the scouting assessment was 7-7. Like I said, trivial, but 8 is extremely rare. the kind of extremely rare to make you believe a guy like Ozzie smith who had hands of gold would also know who to use those hands to swing a bat with productivity- because special is well, really special.
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xfactor, this is why you would never be a GM, Many of the players that you name aren’t really that good anymore and they won’t be worth their cost in dollars OR Draft picks. The Phillies organization isn’t the best in terms of farm strength so giving up a 1st round draft pick isn’t worth a Lowell. I recommend resigning the players we would have lost. Maybe make a trade with our picks and promote someone from within.
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I’m not as concerned with his swing as his complete inability to know when not to swing. He has not improved one iota when it comes to pitch recognition. I don’t care how he makes his outs. However, if he continues to walk only 15 times a season, he’s not going to contribute. Perhaps its Moneyball discipleship in me but sometimes these scouts say the craziest things. In two consecutive sentences, the scout seems to praise Golson for being a smart kid and then says he has to leave his brain in the clubhouse and just play.
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The lesson here with Golson is not necessarily that tools guys are bad, but maybe selecting them in the first round is a bad idea. I like the approach that we took in the 2006 draft by getting Myers, Brown, Warren, and McDonald with 4 of our picks. Total investment was less than for a number 1 pick. But out of that 4 I think we will get 1 or 2 productive major leaguers.
I think it is a scouting error on the Phillies part that they thought all the basic flaws in his swing were correctable. Apparently they were not. While the walk rate is probably hard to scout, I think Golson clearly had lots of bad habits at the plate in high school that should have drawn red flags. I assumed that they had seen him in some high level summer competition where these flaws might have been exposed.
That being said, the best thing the Phillies can do with Golson is hold onto him for another year or two. He won’t get much now in a trade, and his tools do still have an upside. Can he transform himself into a .280 hitter with 20-25 HR at the major league level? Probably only if he can start to control the strike zone, but I would still say he has a 20%-30% chance of doing that to the degree where he can be a productive major leaguer.
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—–Gary—–
Rivera is still pretty good. He would be worth the loss of a 1st round pick. Plus we will get a suppl. pick for the loss of one of our guys AND its not certain that someone with a better 1st round pick than us doesn’t go after AROD or Posada. I mean if the Cubs get AROD then we wouldn’t lose our 1st round pick would we? But who cares about all this right now because this team has the oppurtunity to make the playoffs and not cry over something so stupid.
I can see being hesitant on Lowell or Schilling but even Schilling makes sense for us.
What players should we re-sign? Lohse…no thanks…Alfonseca/Mesa….um yeah ok. You want to resign Rowand for 5yrs maybe $60 million? Why would we fill the only position that our minors could seemingly replace in a yr or 2 with an expensive aging veteran?
You mention promoting people. Like who will you promote and depend on to give you another Kendrick like performance? What he did for us was amazing and it doesn’t happen every yr to the same team. And trade our picks? You cannot trade picks and if you want to trade then you are depleting the farm anyways so what’s the point in not signing a premium free agent?
You talk about how our minors isn’t that great, No its not and missing out on a LATE 1st round pick is going to change all that either way? Hell some people around here believe that our best pick didn’t come in the 1st round anyways so why should that matter?
Philly Phans major complaints are that the ownership never goes quite far enough to get them to the next level, and now that they might be able to get there you want to say “Hold up, wait a minute.”
I mean the Patriots don’t get a 1st round pick if they make the playoffs and I don’t see them going “you know what guys I think we should slow it down and just call it a season. No reason to get ahead of everyone now. I mean we need a 1st round pick soooooo bad”. No they aren’t saying that at all. All Brady is doing is capturing a MVP award.
Go Phills!!
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Let’s try and keep this focused on Golson, not on signing free agents.
My big complaint has always been that the Phillies really struggle to “develop” hitters, and so they shouldn’t be spending high draft picks on really raw tools guys. A guy like Golson is fine in the 7th round, as andyb says, but not necessarily in the first round. The Phillies most productive hitters coming from the farm system have all been college hitters, with the exception of Rollins.
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And the other thing that really does boggle the mind is that they passed on Phil Hughes, who went after Golson. The Phillies have a much better track record in terms of developing pitching, and Hughes was a big righthanded prep pitcher, the type of guy that Wolever and Arbuckle love.
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—-Hey Phuture—-
Don’t mean to get off topic again but wasn’t Hughes a signability thing. Because if it was than their is your answer.
Also what’s your short take on Golson, should we wait on him or come to grips that he is what he is? Or are you saving all that stuff for your player write ups?
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No, Hughes did not sign for an unusually large bonus.
On Golson — yes, part of the criticism is that he was a #1 draft pick, who wasn’t worth that pick. Way, way, way too raw and too many holes.
My comment to trade him if he still has the value the scouts’ imply is not pique based on Phillies’ draft philosophy. It is the realization that there is no place for him on the team. Victorino and Bourn are ahead of him, so a very speedy, good defensive CF is not a priority. He has also been passed as an OF prospect by the guys behind him, such as Dominic Brown and Berry, who show more signs of being an adequate offensive player.
Despite all the talk of his ‘developing power’, it is impossible to imagine him generating enough offense to be a corner OF. If that is to be his role, he likely is going to have to compete with guys like Cardenas and/or Costanzo and come up short.
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My feeling is that he’s not going to become much of a player, at this point. The light might go on at some point, but as fans, I don’t think we should expect it. Best case scenario, he turns into Mike Cameron in 3 years. Worst case, he’s out of baseball in 3 years. Reality? I don’t know, I guess we’ll see. If he can’t draw any walks, he’s not going to be a starter in the majors. He doesn’t have the contact skills of a free swinging hacker like Vlad Guerrero, and there isn’t a huge market for guys with a .290 OB% at the major league level.
I’ll have more detailed writeups on everyone in my Top 30, as well as guys not in the Top 30 once I roll out my prospect list. The system I built requires me inputting info for over 900 players by hand, so it’s going to take some time.
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173? 173? Against minor league pitching?
It is so hard to have faith.
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—Allentown—-
Thanks I just assumed the Phills were being cheap…and ya got to give me the benefit of the doubt on that. Its just so funny how the 2 sides I hear from people are so different on this Golson. From scouts saying he’s got all the right skills and speed and the arm to you guys saying “look at the stats”.
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I’d love to know who that scout is…and what HIS track
record is. A hopeful appraisal, but IMO I would not hesitate to trade Golson if he has real value to anyone.
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I hear all of you talking about Golson, but I thought that what the minor league systems was for to develop these players. Seem to me if Golson have holes in his swing than the minor league hitting coach should be helping him to correct it.
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By-the-way someone ask the question who was the scout that was saying all these positive things about Golson. The question should be what’s the name of the scout that signed Golson as a #1 pick. That just goes to show you that these scout don’t have a clue some times.
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