Here’s a snippet from a Baseball America AFL report today
Numbers aside, Overholt is a reliever. His stuff tended to flatten out, often after just three innings in Double-A in a starting role. And while his slider is viewed by many in the organization to be the best in the system, it wasn’t impressive Tuesday.
“I didn’t see enough of it today to say it was a good slider,” said one scout from a National League club. “He didn’t throw it enough to really say if it was good or bad, but the ones he did throw were fringy.
“I wound up comparing him to (Nationals closer) Chad Cordero after seeing him today as not being a real velocity guy, but a guy who has a heavy ball with some arm side sink that comes right at you. But I didn’t see a guy who would be a go-to guy coming out of your bullpen. He’s not that kind of a Cordero, but his ball is really heavy. I didn’t see that kind of stuff from him with the breaking ball, but he’s got good sink (with the fastball) at times.”
A 2005 22nd-round pick out of Santa Clara, Overholt had never started in pro ball until this season.
“It seems like he could be good in short spurts with a two-pitch mix,” said another NL scout. “But he shouldn’t mess with more than that.”
I liked Overholt heading into last season as a reliever, the Phillies chose to start him, and it looks like it may have set his ETA back a year. I noted his great groundball tendencies when he was on top of his game, and that is confirmed by the scout who noted the “heavy ball” he throws. Overholt is a possible 6/7th inning guy at this point, but probably not until mid 2008 or later.
Phuture Phillies 
I don’t necessarily view that article as bad news – to me it sounds like he could be a solid bullpen guy, especially since they mention that he would flatten out after three innings. As we witnessed this year with Kendrick, having a nice sinker can lead to good things in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Move him back to the bullpen.
– Jeff
LikeLike
I agree with Jeff. Not necessarily a bad report, just not meant for the rotation.
LikeLike
Overholt does have a history of being dominant in the bullpen, so I agree it is not awful. Chalk up last year as an experiment to get him more innings and see if he could be something more.
On the other hand, Outman at 92-94 looked very good.
LikeLike
To play devil’s advocate, it’s a disappointing report from the standpoint of the Phillies setting Overholt’s ETA back, as phuturephillies noted. His peripherals from last year were fantastic: (7.29 H/9 and 10.25 K/9 in 45.2 IP at Lakewood, 6.84 H/9 and 14.01 K/9 in 26.1 IP in Clearwater). If the Phils left him in relief this year and he responded well, he could have been in line to make the bullpen out of spring training next year. As it is, we won’t see him until later than that.
It’s just frustrating, given the issues the bullpen had this season, that the Phils don’t have some young and cheap arms ready to stake a claim for a place in the big league pen.
LikeLike
I doubt it set his ETA back at all. I also doubt he started in 2007 with a view to making him a starter in the majors. We have a lot of better prospects to start (Mathieson, Castro, Happ, Outlaw, Carrasco, Carpenter, Garcia, Drabek, Savery, Bastardo). I think he started this year to give him more IP to work on his pitches and strengthen his arm. Most major league relievers relieved in the minors.
LikeLike
You mean most major league relievers started in the minors?
I didn’t mean to sound negative here, just that the report on Overholt from the AFL wasn’t good. I suspected he’d be a reliever from the get go, this isn’t shocking to me, I just wish they’d have left him as a reliever and he’d have a shot at a bullpen spot in the spring.
LikeLike
Allentown is right on this one. And it isn’t just converted MLB relievers who start in the minors – even some pitchers who are drafted as relievers are temporarily converted to starter in the minors, with an eye toward converting them back down the road. If Overholt’s ETA is now mid-2008, I don’t see how ’07 set him back at all. The odds as of seven months ago of Overholt making the ’08 team out of spring training were basically nil.
LikeLike
I never said I didn’t understand why they chose to start him, I just disagreed with it.
LikeLike
I’m with taco pal, phuturephillies, and not at all sure why you saw such a rapic ETA as Spring 2008 as feasible for him. He started last season in A ball and only got to Reading mid-season. I don’t see anything about him that says he is the sort of super-stud reliever who can skip AAA after just half a season of AA.
I’ll be provocative and suggest that starting last year likely allowed him to develop faster and hastened his ETA. If he makes the team in 2008, it likely is as a long reliever and he will need more than a 2-inning arm. Plus, he just got a lot more game experience than he would have pitching from the pen.
There are a lot of guys ahead of him for pen and the last rotation spot at the start of 2008. That was true regardless of how he was used this year. If healthy, Happ, Mathieson, Castro, Bisenius, Durbin all have a better shot to make theteam out of ST, and Carpenter, Carrasco, Outman have a better chance mid-season. He was always behind these guys.
LikeLike
Overholt pitched 26 innings at Clearwater in 2006, with an excellent 41 strikeouts in those 26 innings. Had they just kept him in the bullpen, he’d likely have made it to Reading by June this year, and could have possibly been in line for a callup. Do you consider Zagurski to have better stuff than Overholt? I don’t think I do. Zagurski went from Clearwater to the majors in a few months.
He wasn’t always behind all of the guys you listed. 93:36 K to BB ratio in 2006, he was looking like a possible fast track reliever with a good shot of making the team in ST 2008. At least that’s my opinion, I know most here tend to disagree with my way of looking at things though, and I’m fine with that.
LikeLike
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. The deal is that–like lotsof guys who are really being prepped for the ‘pen are nevertheless assigned to start in order to gainmore exposure and to experience more innings than if they are relegated to relief roles in the minors resulting in inadequate “experience”/ innings pitched.
Sadly, Wayne Gomes comes to mind…and others throughout minor lg seasons.
I really don’t believe the Phils viewed him as a starter in the MLs–rather thet STILL see him as a reliever.
He is now 23. Plenty of time for him to renew his rerlief standing. ’08 will tell us more…when, IMO, he will return to relief.
LikeLike
The Phillies have a lot of interesting young guys who could be in their bullpen sometime in 2008 or in 2009. I think Overholt is one of them. I like guys who throw the heavy sinking fastball. That often works out pretty well. He had some excellent k/9 rates in the low minors and that’s a good start.
If he retains the heavy sinker and develops his slider into a plus pitch I think he can be a great addition to the pen. I much prefer developing guys like Overholt and Zagurski and Durbin and Rosario rather than paying large dollars for big league mediocrity.
The Phils seem to have a pretty decent amount of good young arms to populate their bullpen and be effective over the next few years. That’s the route I hope they go.
LikeLike