Reader Top 30, #11

2008 Reader Top 30

JA Happ in a runaway yesterday, with some support building for Golson and Harman. It seems like Edgar Garcia is the lost prospect this winter. I might just take a closer look at him and do a writeup, but I don’t want to influence the voting. So, go ahead and vote for #11 today

01. Carrasco
02. Cardenas
03. Savery
04. Costanzo
05. Outman
06. Carpenter
07. Marson
08. Donald
09. Drabek
10. Happ

And here’s a reminder for the eligibilty

For the purpose of this poll, consider “eligibility” to be less than 50 AB/25 games for a position player, and less than 25 IP/20 games as a pitcher.

So, here is where a few other guys stand

Mathieson: 37 IP. Not eligible
Zagurski: 25 G. Not eligible

49 thoughts on “Reader Top 30, #11”

  1. Its between Jaramilo, Golson, and Pfinsgraff for me. I think that these 3 make up the next 5 slots. So I pick:

    Greg Golson for #11

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  3. I agree that Garcia’s been a bit overlooked. After all, he’s just 19, so one iffy season doesn’t eliminate the potential he has.

    That being said, I had Garcia #12 in my prospect list, with Jaramillo at #11. So I’m going to stick to my guns for now.

    Jaramillo.

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  4. The highest ceiling guys remaining are Brown (who had a good second half), Garcia, Myers (who had a good first half and then, I believe I read, some wrist woes), Freddy Galvis, and Golson. I think they all deserve to be ahead of Jaramillo. Harmon and Donald about the same level as prospects; Donald seems high on the list.

    I’ll pick Golson.

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  6. I gotta go with Jaramillo again. A switch-hitting catcher with more pop from the left side (although his average was better from the right side), he could make a really nice platoon next year. And if/when Marson is ready circa late 2009, then either Jaramillo or Ruiz could be a valuable trade commodity.

    – Jeff

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  9. Congratulations to Brad Harman on being named as the SS on 2007 Aussie World Cup team next month in Taipei. So I will give him a vote for this fete.

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  16. Looks like I’m all alone on Drew Naylor. So I’ll switch it up and go with Jaramillo.

    About Golson: Tools alone don’t make a prospect. Sure Golson is an athlete, but so was Michael Jordan when he switched to baseball. Meanwhile, I’ve never seen a K/BB ratio worse than Golson’s. Seriously awful. Even if he dramatically improves he’ll still be well below average. His power isn’t off the charts and his speed plays less of a role since he’s allergic to ball four. At Reading he had 49 K to only 2 BB in 153 AB. For his career he’s 493 K to 89 BB. Think about how terrible that is. How can anyone overlook that? Baseball is a game where you have to take what the pitcher gives you; Golson’s approach is atrocious, especially considering the lack of command of some of those AA pitchers. He’ll get eaten alive in the pros, they’ll simply toy with him off the plate. He’s had time to adjust but he hasn’t. Not a good sign.

    Berry might be older and playing at a lower level, but I think his future as a ballplayer is much brighter. He has a sound approach and he’ll get more out of his tools than Golson ever will. By this time next year I think it will be clear.

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  21. Golson vs Berry is an interesting comparison. However, even though Berry is a year older, Golson’s numbers have never come close to the year Berry just had even if it was a lower level. Having said that, I think Dom Brown and D’Arby Myers are both better prospects at this point than either Berry or Golson. Most of us would be happy if at least one of these four guys reaches Philly as a big time player. Before this season, I thought Myers would have a big year and he started out great and then he hurt his wrist and his season was lost. He’s still very young with a huge upside so I’ll take D’Arby Myers over Brown (could be REAL good), Golson (5th outfielder at best), Jaramillo (back up to Ruiz in the bigs next year), Harman (only a ute in the bigs), Bastardo (do it again and then we’ll talk), Moran (interesting..), Garcia (at some point doesn’t a prospect have to actually improve?), Galvis (hit a little first), Bisenius (is he healthy?), recent picks D’Arnoud, Mattair, Spencer, and a few of the pitchers.

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  22. D’Arby Myers. can never have enough speed on the basepaths. especially with bats like howard, chase, costanzo and rollins cranking out 30+ homers for the next 6 years at least. he will be up in the majors in 2-3 years. the kid is a freak of nature. im excited to watch him, bourn and victorino tear it up. i never liked the argument for having to have a power bat in the outfield. with the hitters we have locked up, it doesnt matter where the homers come from, just as long as they come. especially at the park we play at, we’ll be okay from a power standpoint.

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  23. If Golson went to Lakewood next year he might hit .350 with 30 HR. And it would mean very little. Age versus level versus performance is very important.

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  26. Andyb,

    I understand the argument about age, I just think there are more important factors to consider. There’s no way Golson is a .350 hitter at Lakewood, Clearwater or anywhere else in pro ball. And who cares about 30 HR if his OBP is below .250 with 150+ K?

    As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Golson demoted back to Clearwater midway through next season so we might get a chance to test your theory that he’d dominate at a lower level. And who would take Golson’s place on Reading’s Roster? You guessed it: Berry. I just hope it happens in time for Reading to make a run in the playoffs.

    That said, I’m rooting for Golson to figure it out. I’m just not listing him top 10 or even top 20. 2008 is a pivotal year for Golson. He has to completely reinvent himself to consistently reach base and reduce those unproductive outs. That’s a lot to expect given his track record.

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  29. jaramillo.

    on golson- worth noting that he was drafted 2 picks ahead of Phil Hughes, who didn’t do badly for the yankees in the NLDS. Wouldn’t you like to have that choice back!

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  34. Golson.

    Poor plate discipline will make a player overrated, but it won’t necessarily make him a bad hitter. Juan Samuel was still a valuable player in spite of his awful walk rate. Plate discipline is probably the most important offensive skill in baseball, as well as the most underappreciated skill, but it isn’t the only skill that matters.

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  35. A Jar a Millio.

    Jaramillio was tabbed catcher of the future when drafted and showed a lot of promise last year could be catching along with Ruiz sometime next year and for sure in 09.

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  38. Drew Naylor.

    I love what he can bring to the table in terms of ability. He is a bit raw, being from Williamsport and all, but I really think he can make a bigger impact down the road than some of the guys.

    Edgar Garcia and Brad Harman are the others on my mind.

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  40. taco pal,

    Thanks for the reply. Juan Samuel is an interesting comparison to Golson. He sure did have poor plate discipline. Juan retired with a career .315 OBP (.259 BA) and only one AB in the playoffs. He never was able to significantly improve his K/BB ratio, so what makes anyone think Golson will improve?

    Frankly, no every-day MLB player should have an OBP of .315. That will kill your team over time…Samuel was electric and quite entertaining some nights, but over time his performance wasn’t good enough even with all those XBH and SB. And when they started to decline, he really became a drain on the offense.

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  42. Harman–upside is a super-utility guy like Polanco or maybe Rickie Weeks. Could be a good 3B if his arm becomes more consistent. Might be trade bait with Utley and Cardenas at his best position.

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  47. Using Samuel’s career stats is misleading because it includes about 8 seasons of play at the end of his career after he mysteriously lost the ability to hit for extra-base power. (His plate discipline was actually not so horrible at that latter stage of his career, ironically enough – 94 walks compared to 935 AB in his last six seasons.) Prior to that stage, Samuel was a pretty good player in spite of his low walk rate. There was a five-year stretch when he consistently posted OPS’s around .750 in an era when that was a lot higher than it is today, especially for second basemen. Steve Sax, by way of comparison, generally posted OPS’s under .700.

    The point is that a player can have a low walk-rate and even a low OBP and still be a decent player if his other skills are superior, as was the case with Samuel throughout the mid-80s. And with the pre-1998 Sammy Sosa. And countless other players. Those of us who get a kick out of using use modern statistical arguments to upend conventional wisdom need to watch that we don’t develop tunnel vision. OBP may be the most important and most overlooked stat in baseball, but it doesn’t follow that the other stats (SLG for instance) can be disregarded completely.

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  48. taco pal,

    At this point I should admit I was a big Juan Samuel fan. He was exciting and gave the Phillies another dimension to their offense. I was angry when they traded him to the Mets but in hindsight it was the right move. He did have a brief resurgence with the Tigers, but overall, he never quite became the star he could have been.

    I have since learned not to be fooled by flashes of brilliance. Consistency counts. Plate discipline counts, especially in the post-season, when facing playoff aces with pinpoint control and nasty out-pitches.

    You’re right to warn about getting wrapped up in stats since they don’t tell the whole story, but some stats jump out at you more than others. Golson’s (or Samuel’s) K/BB ratio is an example.

    The offensive stat I place most value on is OPS, which, as you know, combines OBP and SLG. The problem with guys like Golson and Samuel is that all those XBH and SB don’t make up for the terrible K/BB ratio, which leads to an especially weak OBP and is a major drain on their OPS. Beyond the stats, it leads to stranded runners, makes wild pitchers “effectively wild” and takes the pressure off them. Also, when a player like this slumps, they never reach base, struggle to move runners and the offense grinds to a halt.

    I prefer players who take advantage of wildness, who work into a fastball count, who will still take a walk when slumping, who put the ball in play, move runners and put the pressure on the defense. Guys like these rarely beat themselves. Over time, they may not have the flash and power of a Juan Samuel, but they are more likely to help your team win night in and night out.

    Golson has a LONG way to go and I don’t care how many XBH he gets if he’s only walking 2 times in 153 AB while striking out at a furious pace, nearly one K in three plate appearances. No thanks! A sac fly might not be as exciting as a solo HR, but they each count the same on the scoreboard.

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  49. Well, my point is that Samuel had a very good OPS for a 80s-era second baseman in spite of his low walk rate, and not just as a flash in the pan either. It was for a stretch of a good five years or so.

    I’m not saying we shouldn’t get wrapped up in stats. In fact, I might even be more stat-centric than you, based on what you wrote. I’m just saying we shouldn’t get so wrapped up in the most compelling statistical arguments that we oversteer and ignore other valid statistical arguments. SLG is also a statistically important stat, for instance. When the whole world is saying 2+2=5, there’s a tendency for people with iconoclastic personalities to take so much pleasure in pointing out that 2+2=4 that they eventually take it up another notch and start saying that 2+2=3. That’s what I think we need to avoid.

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