I thought this would be an interesting comparison. Happ and Outman are arguably the Phillies two best LHP prospects, assuming that Antonio Bastardo still has a ways to go. Outside of the hand they throw with, the two pitchers are very different. Happ is 4 inches taller than Outman (6’5 to 6’1), and if you believe the media guides, has 25 pounds on him. Despite the height difference, Outman actually throws harder than Happ, with a 91-93 fastball, compared to Happ’s 89-92. Happ’s second best offering is his changeup, while Outman’s is a slider, and Happ’s breaking ball is more of an over the top 12-6, as opposed to Outman’s sharp slider. Happ is a year older than Outman, and has also pitched at higher levels to date. Here are their numbers at the respective levels.
Low A
High A
Double AA
Happ has put up consistently solid peripherals through AA prior to this season, but he really fell apart in AAA. His numbers
118.1 IP — 5.02 ERA — 8.97 H/9 — 4.72 BB/9 — 8.90 K/9 — 0.91 HR/9
The big issue is obviously the walks. He spent time on the DL this season, and who knows how healthy he really was after the first month of the year, in which he started out very strong. Outman, on the other hand, pitched very well in Clearwater after a rough first outing, and his walk rate dropped each month. However, once he got to AA, things got much tougher, and his walk rate regressed again. 2008 will be Outman’s age 23 season, which puts him in good shape, but he needs to have a big season to solidify his status. 2008 will be Happ’s age 25 season, and he’s likely close to major league ready at this point. The question will again be his health and endurance.
So my question to you is this. Over the next 5 years, who will be the more valuable pitcher to the Phillies, Outman or Happ?
Phuture Phillies 
I see Outman as a big part of the Phils’ future as a starter if he can get his walk rate down. He could even be promoted late next year if his control improves. A fastball and slider combo is a great start and I’m sure he’ll need to throw something slow (change up or curve) to be successful as a starter but that’s teachable. I see Happ in the bullpen or more likely traded this off season as part of a larger deal. He’s not likely to be a big league 1 or 2 starter and could fetch something in a trade and with Outman and Carrasco coming soon, they can afford to trade him. Carpenter is an interesting wild card. He had a similar terrific year like Maloney did last year, although Maloney was down in Lakewood, but neither projects as a 1 or 2 based on their stuff. As you get higher on the ladder, an out pitch becomes more and more critical.
LikeLike
Outman hit 95 this summer, at least on the Reading gun. More than occassionally, also. He threw way too much fastball/sinker and the AA hitters could handle this mix. I think he has a great future, but badly needs to be able to command his off-speed stuff. Better fastball command also will help. He is a guy with a lot of talent but desperately in need of an above average changeup he can throw for strikes.
Who is the better prospect? If he is healthy, I think Happ has as high a ceiling as Outman. Not the velocity, but guys miss his pitches more. I am not at all sure he is healthy.
These are both guys who could be in the Phillies starting rotation within the next 1-1/2 years. In fact, I’ll say if they stay healthy any of Carrasco, Castro, Happ, Outlaw, Mathieson are likely to be good enough to be starters for the big team. At least a couple will relieve, instead. I think Castro and Outlaw or Mathieson.
LikeLike
Hard to distinguish between the two since we haven’t had the benefit of both having regained better command. Should that happen, and soon, we could have two superior lefty starters to supplement Hamels.
Sure they have different styles of pitching; yet both styles can produce good results. Not every better pitcher needs a 95 mph fb to be successful. In fact, we know that no matter how many mph her gives, it is useless w/o a 2nd and for a starter, a 3rd pitch.
So….both need to get that command w/o which neither one would be helpful for the big club. The AFL could help for both so long as the concentration is on that factor.
Neither one appears to be ready for competing in ST for a big club job. It would take some time–at least 2 months or so at AAA and AA–to determine and solidify their command regained.
If they, or even one of them, put it together soon, it would be a giant electric addition to the staff!
LikeLike
P.S. Take a good look at Dieckmen, a TALL lefty we drafted out of a junior college. He seems to be a sleeper who could move pretty quickly up the ladder. His BB and K #s were good! As well as his opponents ba and oba. He was a latter draftee who the Phils took a flyer on. Worth watching.
LikeLike
I’ll take Outman but he stalled out at AA and Happ stalled out at AAA this year both by losing command and control. On the other hand Kyle Kendrick has proven to be a major league starter by keeping the ball down as opposed to what he did at high A ball last year. It just shows how effective Kendrick’s control and command has been by letting major league defense field the ball without the need to strike out batters. Among the Phils starters his 1.29 WHIP is second only to Hamels 1.14 and his 1.48 GO/AO is first. Let’s for comparison purposes use Kyle Kendrick’s 06 numbers at Clearwater with Happ’s 06 and Outman’s 07 Clearwater numbers: KK was 9-7, with a 3.53 ERA in 130 innings of pitching with a GO/AO of 0.96 and opponents hit .241. Happ was 3-7, with a 2.81 ERA in 80 innings of work with a GO/AO of 1.01 and opponents hit .216. Outman was 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA which led the FSL in 117 innings with GO/AO of 1.24 and a .236 opponents average. Certainly Kendrick would be the last one of these three to project a rookie debut of 9-4 as a starter in the Majors. But when Outman ( 0.89 AA GO/AO) and Happ (0.73 AAA GO/AO), moved up this year they lost command and control by becoming fly ball pitchers and lost their effectiveness. When they regain it they will be starting in the ML next year.
LikeLike
Happ was injured all this past year. He will bounce back next year and will be starting for the phils a month after the season begins
LikeLike