My picks for biggest step forward and biggest step back are Jason Donald and James Happ, with honorable mentions going to Quintin Berry and Greg Golson and dishonorable mention going to Zach Segovia. The suggestions thrown out in yesterday’s discussion were good, but I can’t see listing Cardenas and Carrasco on the step forward side, mainly because they were elite prospects and expected to perform. On the flip side, I can’t mention CJ Henry on the step back side, because I don’t think anyone really expected anything great out of him. Berry and Golson have both taken nice steps forward, but I want to see more patience from Golson and a bit more pop in Berry’s bat before I get too excited. Here’s why I chose the guys I did…

This was my summation of Jason Donald in my prospect grade writeup this winter.

Donald, Jason, SS (age 22) Grade = C+

I wasn’t crazy about it when the Phillies took Donald in the third round of the 2006 draft, but I can see why they did. The Phillies have basically 1 legit prospect in the middle of the infield, and that’s Brad Harman, who had a nightmare 2006 season. Donald was a premier prospect a few years ago and turned down a 1 million dollar bonus from Anaheim as a 20th round flier pick to attend Arizona. His stock has dropped since then, but he hit enough and was solid enough defensively to go in the third round. The Phillies think he’ll have enough range to stay at SS, but his bat is the big question mark. His composite numbers at Batavia put him 19% or so above league average, but for a college player, this isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. His one surprising area was that he managed to steal 12 bases in 13 tries, after never stealing more than 7 in a season at Arizona. Donald appears to have another skill, getting plunked by pitches. In his three seasons at Arizona, he was hit a grand total 39 times, and he managed get hit 5 times at Batavia. This helps to raise his otherwise modest OB%, as he doesn’t draw a ton of walks. He made 9 errors at SS, but as I mentioned before, it’s tough to really assess fielding stats, especially in the lower levels, where field conditions are, shall we say, less than ideal. Donald’s grade was lowered based on his poor walk rate and lack of power at Batavia, but he could very well bounce back once fresh at Lakewood, and if he can steal 15-18 bases in 2007, it will improve his stock a bit.

Ceiling: A major league shortstop, but to what degree is uncertain. If his fielding drops off a bit, he looks more like a backup, especially if his bat doesn’t improve at Lakewood.

Floor: A utility infielder that bounces around and never really makes a mark.

Conclusion: Donald seems to do a bunch of things in above average fashion, but doesn’t really do anything overly well. He has a good hitting record in college and was lauded for his defense, we’ll have to see if it translates to his pro career. He’ll be the everyday SS at Lakewood, partnered in the middle of the infield with Adrian Cardenas at 2B. It should be an interesting combination to watch.

Well, Donald has shown a lot more than being a defense only shortstop, and in fact, has made a ton of errors, but as we talked about before, evaluating defense in the lower minors is kind of tricky. But here’s what impresses me about Donald. He walked in 12.6% of his plate appearances in Lakewood, with an isolated power number of .140. When he was promoted, his walk rate only dipped to 10.9%, which is still strong, and his isolated power actually increased to .214. Donald has gone from potential utility man to potential above average regular. He’s on pace to finish somewhere along the lines of a .300/.390/.490, and that’s excellent and far surpasses the offseason expectations I had for him. If I were rating him now, he’d probably be a B/B+, up from a C+ grade this past offseason, and he gets extra points because he’s at High A and should be at AA next year.

On the other side of the equation, we have James/JA/J Happ. Here was my writeup on Happ prior to this season

Happ, James, LHP (age 24) Grade = B+

Happ was close, really close, to getting an A-, but what held him back is his walk rate. Right now, it’s not a problem, but it wasn’t a strength at AA, so I’m going to hold off on giving him an A- for now. He has developed the reputation as the typical soft tossing lefty, but he’s added 3-4 mph to an already good fastball, and now sits in the 91-93 range, which is quite solid for a LHP. His changeup is an above average pitch, his breaking ball probably average, but has potential and should improve. He was great at high A Clearwater, and even better at AA Reading, striking out 158 in 154 innings. He did all of his work at age 23 this season, so while his A+ numbers take a bit of a knock as he was on the high end of prospect age for the FSL, his performance at AA was right in line, age-wise. His hit rate was about 15% above average at Reading, his K rate over 25% above average, but his walk rate was about 5% below average at AA after being well above average at A+. That drop off probably isn’t uncommon, but I’m going to wait and see what he responds with at AAA Ottawa. Looking at his three true outcomes, he passes with flying colors in regards to his K rate, he’s just fine in his HR rate, and his walk rate is still a tick or two above average overall. His control was merely average in 2004 and 2005, so we’ll see where he ends up there in 2007 before giving him an A- or straight A. At this point, with the injury to Mathieson, he’s the closest to a “sure thing” in terms of making the big leagues and contributing, at some level.

Ceiling: I’m not going to make Tom Glavine comparisons, those serve no purpose. If his walk rate ends up in the 2.65-2.80 range at the MLB level, and he can maintain a K rate in the neighborhood of 7.50-8.00 at the highest level, his ceiling is as a #2 pitcher. That may seem like a big thing to say, considering he hasn’t torn up most prospect charts, but at some point, you have to look at a guy’s numbers and stop worrying about how “dynamic” his stuff is. Happ has a good pitcher’s body, he has a deceptive delivery, and he now has above average velocity, along with good secondary pitches and the makings of a real good changeup. While his chances of becoming a #2 aren’t as good as, say, Cole Hamels or a guy with electric stuff, he’s put up the results so far at every level, and that has to be taken into account.

Floor: I’m setting his floor as a #5 starter. I really don’t see a need for him to move to the bullpen at any point. He was a good pitcher in college, and he’s been a really good starter during his entire pro career. The only way he’ll be forced to the pen, in my opinion, is if he can’t stay healthy. In 2005, that was sort of the case, but he was just fine in 2006. If his secondary pitches only become average, his strong groundball tendencies and his fastball should allow him to be a back of the rotation guy, capable of pitching 180 innings of 4.35-4.60 ball. On most every team, that’s good enough for the #5 spot.

Conclusion: In 2006, Happ became one of my favorite prospects. He’s a tireless worker, he understands HOW to pitch, and his stuff is now catching up to his aptitude. If his new-found velocity stays and he can consistently work at 91 while ramping it up to 93, he’s Cole Hamels with a changeup a notch lower. That’s huge praise, and of course he may flame out or just become a below average major leaguer, but I think the tools are there. He handled AA with ease at age 23, and will probably start at Ottawa, his age 24 season. If he mows down AAA, which based on the level of talent between AA and AAA, he probably should, he’ll more than likely get a shot to start 2008 in the big league rotation. I put his odds of reaching his ceiling at 40%, because frankly, there aren’t a lot of guys you can pencil in as “bona-fide #2 starters” on a Championship caliber team, but Happ could very well surprise a ton of people. I’m giving him a 95% chance at hitting his floor, with only a 5% chance of him not making it in the bigs at some level. This kid is for real, and I think we’ll see that in the next year.

Well, it’s been a rough season for Happ. He got knocked around in spring training, and after a strong April in Ottawa, it’s been all downhill. He got hammered in May and June, spent some time on the DL, was called up to make his debut and got beat around, and since coming back to Ottawa, has gotten knocked around some more. His overall line

67.1 IP — 5.21 ERA — 75 H — 41 BB — 69 K — 7 HR

The most troubling part of that line is the hits allowed. Happ has never had pristine command/control, and I alluded to that in his grade, but his control has been awful this year, issuing 5.5 BB/9. But he allowed only 6.97 H/9 last season, this year he’s at 10.05/9. The strikeouts are still there, and while the home run rate is high, it’s not a complete disaster. Happ didn’t show the low 90’s velocity in his debut that many saw in the Arizona Fall League, and I wonder if he’s 100% healthy, or if he has been since the beginning of the year. I suspected when he was put on the DL that he might have elbow ligament damage, and I still feel like something isn’t right. His control has been poor, he’s giving up hits, and just doesn’t seem like he’s the same guy we saw last year. It might be growing pains, it might be an injury, or it might just be batters catching up to him. Nevertheless, this is a big step back for someone I saw potential middle of the rotation stuff from. If I were grading him now, he’d probably go from B+ to a C+.