Tyler Mach seems to be the man of the hour. Everyone knows that I wasn’t found of the pick when it was made and said as much in my draft review, and now folks want to know if I’ve changed my mind, and they want to know why he’s still in Williamsport and hasn’t been moved up. So, I’ll try and tackle those questions and give you as good an answer as I can. Before that, just to add there is nothing new on the Joe Savery front, as far as I know, but he’s going to sign. I’ve also got nothing new to add on Brandon Workman and Julian Sampson, but I have a feeling that nothing will happen there until Savery is signed. Now, onto Mach-Mania..
Tyler Mach, a four year senior, was taken by the Phillies in the 4th round of this year’s draft. Previously, Mach was taken in the 40th round in 2006 by St Louis, and as far as I can tell, he was not drafted out of high school. The draft, as we’ve discussed before, is an imperfect system. Some guys don’t go where they should based on talent because of signability, and some guys simply fly under the radar, either for health or performance reasons, but for the most part, you can look at where a guy is drafted, figure out if it was a signability thing, and then understand how good a prospect he likely is. There will always be exceptions….the guy taken in the 38th round from a small college who goes on to win 150 games in the big leagues, or the guy taken in the 25th round that hits 300 home runs, but by in large, teams know what they are doing. With 50 rounds and 30 players taken per round, the large majority of guys taken after the first few rounds never become impact major leaguers. Again, we’re talking about the rule, and then the exception to the rule, which is called such because it’s a very small minority.
So that brings us to Tyler Mach. The first telling thing about Mach is that he wasn’t drafted out of high school. There are normally 2 reasons for a guy not to get drafted out of high school. Either he is such an elite guy with such a strong college commitment that teams don’t even bother, or he fails to impress in high school, and teams realize that he won’t amount to much in the next few years, and college is what he needs to improve his game. I’d have to think Mach falls into the latter, but I can’t be 100% sure since I don’t remember reading anything about him 5 years ago. The second thing is, he was drafted in the 40th round last year after his junior year. His 2006 numbers; 250 AB – .364/.416/.628….those are fairly impressive numbers, against fairly decent competition, yet he only goes in the 40th round? Something must be up here. Mach is only 6’1, 195 lbs, so he doesn’t have a huge frame, and at 22 years old, he’s probably not going to be growing much at this point. That’s another point “against” him, in that you can’t really project on him…what you see is what you get.
So how did Tyler Mach go from a 40th round pick in his junior season to a 4th round pick his senior season? Well, stack his 2006 numbers up with his 2007 numbers
2006: 250 AB – .364/.416/.628 – 18 2B – 16 HR – 66 RBI
2007: 259 AB – .386/.450/.672 – 24 2B – 16 HR – 81 RBI
Those numbers are very similar. The increase in OB% is almost entirely driven by his increase in batting average. He had 6 more doubles, the same amount of home runs, and 15 more RBI. Does that warrant a 36 round jump in the draft? What did the Phillies see that the Cardinals didn’t? Did everyone pass on him because they assumed he was going back to school for his senior year? I went back to the 2006 Baseball America draft coverage, and found this 2006 report on Mach, when he was the #11 ranked prospect in the state of Oklahoma
Third baseman Tyler Mach shared Big 12 Conference player-of-the-year honors with projected first-rounder Drew Stubbs of Texas, but scouts aren’t sold on him as a pro prospect. Though he entered the NCAA regional playoffs leading the Big 12 in homers (16) and RBIs (66) and ranking second in batting (.378), scouts see him as a dead-fastball hitter who has taken advantage of the favorable hitting conditions at Oklahoma State. In his first season with the Cowboys after stints at Washington and Edmonds (Wash.) Community College, Mach has some length to his swing and no other tools to supplement his bat. He may have to move off the hot corner as a pro.
Well, that sheds some light on things. His bat was regarded as his lone plus tool, and there were even questions there because of the length of his swing. Mach has already moved to 2B, so it seems like they were right about him not playing 3B as a pro. Will the Phillies ponder moving him back to 3B? Not sure.
So, that brings us to the big question….what do we make of his hot start? Well, the New York Penn League is a very tough hitting environment, so it’s tough to ignore the .431/.507/.776 batting line. But we also know that Mach is 22 years old, and is one of the oldest players in the league. Many guys playing in this league are either in their second year of pro ball and up from the rookie Gulf Coast League or they are college juniors who were just drafted. Only the very best prospects have reliable, efficient breaking balls in a league like this, and often times you’ll see pitchers throwing a lot of fastballs and not much else for strikes. So, if Mach is indeed a dead fastball hitter, and he’s facing pitchers without good secondary pitches who also happen to be anywhere from 1-4 years younger than him, you can make a reasonable assumption that he’s beating up on inferior talent. Now, I’d rather he hit .431 against bad talent than .231, but I guess I’m still having a hard time getting too excited.
Most people want him to be promoted immediately, and I guess I can understand that. However, a month of performance at Low A or High A probably isn’t going to greatly influence the Phillies in terms of where they start him. As a college senior, he’ll either start at Lakewood or Clearwater next season, but where he goes next year will depend on how he hits next year in a full season league. If they start him at Lakewood and he destroys the ball, he’ll move up in 2 months. If he continues to destroy the ball in Clearwater, they’ll move him up again. There really is no advantage to rushing him now. It’s not as if they’d put him in Clearwater now, and if he holds his own, skip him to Reading next year. That type of thing rarely happens for prospects, even the above average guys. The other thing is, it’s likely Mach is going to have to move to another position. Adrian Cardenas is a superior prospect in almost every sense, and he is currently playing 2B. Mach could very well pass him by the end of next year in terms of where he stands on the organizational ladder, but Cardenas will still be the better prospect. And both guys will have to move eventually, as Chase Utley doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. When a guy who isn’t particularly athletic and doesn’t have defensive tools has to move to a new position, an adjustment time is necessary. If Mach ends up at Clearwater next year, where Cardenas will also be, it’s not likely he’ll play 2B. Will they move him to the outfield? How will he adjust?
The bottom line is, I’m happy that Mach is tearing the cover off the ball. At the same time, I still think he was a big reach in the 4th round, and I think there was still a good bit of signable talent on the board when the Phillies took him. I believe he was taken in the 4th round because he had no leverage and would be a cheap sign, and the Phillies needed that with having two 3rd round picks. Mach signed for $95,000, all of the guys infront of him that signed went in the $200,000 range, and the three guys behind him signed for $120,000, $140,000 and $164,000. I hope this pick works out, I hope he destroys the ball all through the minors, finds a defensive home, and can be a .280/.360/.480 guy in the majors and help us, but I’m not holding my breath, and I’d be shocked if he ever becomes a major league regular. That doesn’t mean I’m not pulling for him.
Phuture Phillies 
Good assessment. From Mach’s history and the slotting info, your hypothesis that he was an easy sign and thus attractive to the Phils seems well grounded. But I find myself really hoping that Mach is one of those guys whom scouts and their employers always saw in terms of his limitations, rather than his abilities–a David Ortiz-with-the-Twins scenario. If “his bat is his one tool,” that still strikes me as the best tool to have.
At the least, I wonder if Mach could become a Marco Scutaro/Todd Walker type player (with maybe a better eye than Walker) who can hit enough to be valuable as a short-term patch when a guy gets hurt and a plus bat off the bench. That’s not bad value at all for a fourth-round pick, and such an outcome would make that $95,000 signing bonus look not cheap, but very shrewd.
LikeLike
I don’t doubt that he can be a good utility guy. But I think people were getting carried away looking at his numbers, thinking we’d struck gold and found a true slugger.
LikeLike
Thank you for your assessment of Mach.
Withal, it seems to me that there is no reason to keep him at Wlmsprt now. Of what benefit is there to keeping him there? Moving him up now would at least test him against those assessments quoted…against what he has been doing so far this season…particularly w regard to his being “only” a fb hitter.
We do know that most of the guys at the NY/PA Lg starting their pro careers are from college. Isn’t it a bit naive to state that the college pitchers really don’t have curve balls to throw him?
It sems that there is as STRAIN here to limit him to the assessmentsw quoted; whereas his PERFORMANCE is what should be the key.
IMO, what has been said about him over the last couple years counts a lot less than what he’s done at Wlmsprt. where–ADMITTEDLY–he is hitting the snot out of the ball.
So…is it wise to draft a player in the 4th round (“to save $$ because he’d be an easy sign”??) and if drafting him at all, why so early in the draft if his background is so negative?? Fools these (baseball) mortals be??
I don’t think so. Giving credit where credit is due is essential in this judgment-based time of now. What his past is, is interesting and something to use as a yardstick in measuring his performance; when performance far exceeds “valid expectations” it is not a good approach to limit him by past thoughts but rather take great heed at what he’s NOW doing.
If somebody were to tell me that he’s still at the NYPENN Lg now because, even if his hitting is great, his fielding is being assessed and worked on before moving him up, then I could go along with the sense that represents.
Otherwise, he NEEDS to be tested to see just what we’ve got. That is not going to happen unless he’s challenged at Lakewood or Clwtr. having so far destroyed the pitchers, whereas at higher levels it’d be easier to judge his skills and value to the big club i8n futuro. Keeping where he is now accomplishes nothing, IMO.
We should not be married to past evaluations; present results speak louder…in fact on Mach they SHOUT!
LikeLike
Excellent analysis as always- he is starting to trail off as well suggesting that pitchers may be adjusting to him. However, there is an alternate theory that can be employed to show his 36 round jump. His 2006 season could have been considered a fluke- a dead fastball hitter transfer coming out of nowhere. However, duplicating (and indeed improving upon) those numbers the following year with presumably less pitches to hit says something. Or maybe he made an adjustment and wasn’t considered a dead fastball hitter anymore. I don’t tend to give the Phils the benefit of the doubt but this is one possibility.
LikeLike
I guess I can buy that some people have been struck by irrational exuberance in response to Mach’s great start. But that seems pretty silly. He’s not going to be an Utley, or even (in all probability) a Cardenas. If he makes the bigs and contributes, though, I think that constitutes a successful pick and a good investment.
LikeLike
I also think an argument to keep him at Williamsport is that it helps other hitters in the lineup being around a guy that can hit. It’s soul crushing to score 1 run a game for 10 straight games, having guys who can actually hit against weak pitching has to be a help. It’s not really like he’s holding back a legit prospect from getting sufficient playing time, so I don’t have a big problem with him staying there for now.
LikeLike
I agree that enthusiasm should be severely tempered by his age and defensive liabilities. He is playing a level below last year’s high schooler Cardenas and at the same level as a very young 2006 HS guy D’Arby Myers. Both of these youngsters already have better D and better speed than Mach, to go along with very impressive bats. Mach may well develop into a bench hitter for the Phillies. That is actually a better than average return on a 4th round pick. Also, can save big $ compared to what we have spent on some bench bats. Not a draft pick I was at all happy with, but glad he is off to a good start.
LikeLike
This whole “old for the level” argument is a full red herring.. All of the college picks went to GCL or Williamsport. Is Taylor old for the level too? Rizzotti?? Give Mach is props, he was put where he shoulda been put and is crushing the ball. I do agree it doesnt mean very much, we will know more next year when he starts out at LKW or CLR, but for now I am impressed.
LikeLike
It’s not a red herring. A lot of the top college prospects skip straight to Low A, some even make it to High A by the end of the summer.
LikeLike
top prospects start straight in low A.. okay, how many guys is that? how many guys have the phils started out in low A? my point is that he was put where 95% of guys drafted out of college get put.. it isnt his fault. If he was hitting .191 he would be getting killed because he 22 yrs old!
LikeLike
The argument that his numbers this season should count for more than the scouting report is absolutely ridiculous. You do not grade recent draft picks based on statistics a very short season of work in low minor league ball. PERIOD. The scouting report is based on multiple seasons of work, as well as private workouts and interviews. His numbers are based on how many months of work in Williamsport? If you want to give him praise for his good work thus far, that’s one thing, but to say that is performance outweighs the scouting is absurd.
LikeLike
More top prospects start in Short-A and skip to Clearwater. The age of Short-A and LowA is pretty similar as low A is a mix of top HS/foreign younger prospects and second tier college guys. I am betting Mach jumps to Clearwater and plays 3B next year alongside Cardenas. It is not as if Welinson Baez or Carl Henry are really challenging for playing time there at this stage.
Good report on Mach. I think you have all the warning signs there on his prospect status. He may be the type of prospect that has more trouble moving up the ladder because of tools. His start may be attributable to his one solid tool – hitting – and the polish he has as a 4-yr senior. Hopefully I am wrong here on that, but he’ll need lots of bat if he eventually needs to play OF.
LikeLike
Mach’s obviously destroying weaker pitching. Maybe he’ll move to third, maybe he’ll move to left. At best, he could be a useful utility player, at worst he could be orgizational filler and end up playing indy ball in 5 years. I’m far more excited about Cardenas and D’Arby Myers than I am about a 4-year senior who’s the equvalent of a varsity player on a little-league team right now.
LikeLike
Age is an issue. While most college draftees start in high rookie league, most of these guys are juniors not seniors.
LikeLike
How so many here are willing & able to denigrate Mach’s hot start is amazing. I SUSPECT that many here are trying to “justify” their “lousy pick” commentary immediately following our draft. If he had been hitting .200 w no power and a lousy OBA there’d be plenty of “I told you so” people here.
Unfortunately for them the guy is hitting over .400 AGAINST MOSTLY COLLEGE PITCHERS who have been known to throw a curve or two and even a changeup. Thus it just may be that his reputation as a fb hitter only may have to be amended…and JUST PERHAPS one or two Phils’ scouts including a cross-checker may have figured that out just from watching him.
Though it could be that he is unsuitable for 3rd base because of fielding issues; yet that doesn’t bar the team from experiencing him in left field. If so, the sooner the better.
To those who suspicion him for his age: his age IS a factor; not so much because his obvious great success at Wlmsprt is a year AFTER most college players are drafted: at age 21.
So…just maybe moving him up now could advance him along w others at the same aqe of 22. But perhaps his bat is more needed at Wlmspt to buttress the offense.
I hope all the naysayers here are greatly surprised when he becomes part of the big club…perhaps as a power left fielder failing my 3rd base dreams for him. My bet is on him.
Utility player….!!! At best?
Reminder: a certain guy was going to be drafted in the 1st round for sure…but failed miserably at bat in his last pre-draft year. Thus his draft status fell greatly because scouts were saying he couldn’t respond to the pressure of the oncoming draft and his fielding was just adequate at most.
So..30 teams passed on the guy for the first 3-4 rounds in light of scouting report6s. The Phils thought they saw something that ALL of the scouts didn’t and chose him in the 4th round.
Thus, DESPITE the scouting reports the Phils ended up w Ryan Howard at 1st base. Not too bad for a guy who was dissed by all the scouts’ reports. Somehow the Phils’ people saw something other than the scouts did….It couldn’t possibly happen twice, could it?
Pretty good return on going against scouting reports on Howard…based upon YOUR OWN evaluators.
Tyler Mach…?? NAAH!!
LikeLike
Good report on Mach. I agree with Art on this, people need to give him some props for having a ridiculously hot start that allowed you to write a report on him. As far as him being a top prospect I think time will tell. What I don’t understand is that there are some that are devaluing his numbers because of his age and being in rookie ball. But he can’t control where he is playing. They put him in rookie ball and his is doing his job so far. If anything people should be happy that this 4th round pick wasn’t as bad as they expected. Also scouts aren’t right 100% of the time. If they were, players like Howard and Pujols would never make the majors. I’m not saying Mach is going to be this kind of player but at least give him a chance to play himself out of ever making the majors.
LikeLike
Art, as usual, you’re getting a bit carried away.
This summary of Mach was simply to alert folks to temper their expectations. The shear numbers indicate that he is not going to be a star, and probably not even an above average regular at the major league level. Those are just the percentages. For the most part, you’re all stars and elite talents are being picked in the first two rounds. Like I said, there are exceptions to every rule. No one here is rooting against Mach….no one. I’m simply pointing out that his hot start doesn’t indicate he was some sort of draft steal, it indicates that he’s 22 years old and playing with a lot of 18-19 year olds with little experience. He’s putting up great numbers, but if people start thinking we have a star on our hands, they are going to be mighty disappointed, because there’s a much better chance that he puts up a .700 OPS at Clearwater than a .900 OPS.
Do I hope he’s the next Ryan Howard? Sure. But guys like that come along once every few years, and they are 1 in 1000 type players. Mach’s one tool is hitting for average. He has good pop, but he doesn’t profile as a 30+ home run hitter in the majors.
People ask for my opinion on things, I give my opinion. If they don’t like my opinion, they can read another blog, or they can just say they disagree. I didn’t like the pick at the time because I felt there was better talent available, and that Mach was taken because he’d be a cheap sign. When you look at the signing bonuses for the 3 guys right before him and the 3 right after him, my opinion seems to be validated there. I never said I thoguht he’d suck, I said he had a limited ceiling…and he DOES have a limited ceiling, because he has one plus tool out of five.
It’s not about “I told you so’s”. If he bombs out in 2 years, I;m not going to happy about it. He’s a Phillies prospect, I hope he becomes the next Rogers Hornsby. But I’ve followed the minors closely enough to know that guys like Mach rarely turn into big league regulars, let alone all stars. For every Ryan Howard, there are 500 guys taken outside of the first 3 rounds who never make it to the majors.
LikeLike
So…if there are misgivings abouthis skills, then WHY NOT “test” him at a higher level to determine “more accurately” just what kind of goods he has.
My whole commentary was/has been aimed ONLY at moving him up now to challenge him…thus to better find out his possibilities.
In response, all I’ve heard from the people here w only one exception is: he’s a lousy prospect; limited only to one skill; never make it or only as a utility players…so why bother now.
Isn’t it arrogant to say that and then use your opinions to PREVENT HIM FROM PROVING OTHERWISE!!…which a move up might show.
So, I guess the idea is that since his pre-draft assessments were less than we’d like, we’d be better off to see him as fatally flawed and be so fixated as to not move him up to see if your own judgment on him is flawed…and, in the process FAIL to give him the shot that any other guy putting up sauch numbers would get.
Essentially what you and others are saying is: since he got a mediocre/poor scout write-up, we’ll just judge him on that and NOT CONSIDER HIS ON-FIELD SUCCESS in determining what to do w him. Now…doesn’t that sound ridiculous against only a plea to move him up now (time’s a-wastin’, he’s already 22) to move him along (age is factor) to test his worth…sooner rather than later…???
If I do rail it’s only against poor reasoning. I would not condemn a guy in face of his good accomplishments, but recognize and honor it UNLIMITED BY OTHER pre-existing viewpoints. Sometimes called giving credit where it is due.
I do not contend that he is an inevitable all-star….only that he NEEDS TO BE TESTED AT A HIGHER LEVEL!!…and especially in consideration of his “advanced” age. Why ANYBODY would oppose that is beyond me.
Appreciate commentary (i.e. that’s the purpose of the blog, no?) but wish that illogical, unnecessary roadblocks were not placed in front of any of our players…but rather rewarding performance with appreciation and regard whole-heartedly.
Imagine a guy putting up such numbers and then reading how that it doesn’t make any difference…that his fate has been predetermined.
MOVE THE GUY UP…NOW!
LikeLike
Well stated opinion, Phuturephillies. A good example on moving a prospect up the ladder is Kevin Youkilis. See his minor league record.
LikeLike
Thank you, walt for swhowing exactly what I’ve been saying: Youkilis was drafted in 2001 and was sent initially to the NYPA lg and did well…so…guess what? they moved him UP the same season/his draft year UP to the South Atlantic Lg…and, noting, as here (Mach) youkilis was 22 yrs old when drafted.
2 1/2 yrs later he started at 3rd base for the Red Sox? Sound familiar? Anybody advise against that move for a 22 yr old draftee? As in Mach?
Closed case!
P.S. Only a 2bh plus a HR today. But what the hell…forget him…he ain’t nothin’
LikeLike
Art, I’m sorry, but you’re so far gone on this, it’s useless for me to continue having a dialog. No one is saying Mach sucks, and no one is saying he will never amount to anything. The entire point of the thousand words I wrote was to try and help folks temper expectations. Him being 22 and playing in the NYPL is a big deal, and it does affect his numbers. More than that, the scouting reports indicate he does not have star potential. Could they be wrong? Sure. Could he be the next Kevin Youkilis? Sure. But cherry picking 1 guy out of the 300+ guys every few years who are just like Mach is going to build you, and then really disappoint you and everyone else. The numbers and percentages don’t lie. My entire point was, we have to wait and see what he does over 400 AB at a full season affiliate before even having an idea as to whether he’s an exception to the rule, or whether he’s just off to a hot start.
No one said he sucked. No one said to forget him. You’re just being obtuse, and there’s nothing more I can say on this.
LikeLike
Reading the financial ramifcations of that pick, while understanding they won’t buck up for either Sampson or Workman this year makes me want to throw my hardrive off my deck. I despise the people that run this team, I really do.
LikeLike
As I said earlier, playing at 22 years old in the league he’s in is like putting a varsity baseball player on a little-league team. Anybody can crush a straight fastball or hanging curve. When he sees some higher-level competition, sees some splitters/knucklers/breaking curves/sliders/changeups and does relatively well is the only time we’ll truly be able to grade him as a prospect. Things you can measure with Mach have been measured. Things you can’t measure — heart, determination, perserverance, and natural ability — haven’t been measured because he’s only been a Phils prospect for TWO MONTHS. Relax, Art. Take a nice long walk or a hike or something. Clear your mind. Take some deep breaths. Have a little patience. Mach could be the next Howard or Youkilis, but he could also be MLB’s Ryan Leaf. He could be somewhere in between. We’ll see.
LikeLike