Ottawa Lynx 2007-The First Half-Overview
Last place, 14.0 games back, 35-52, (19-22 at home, 16-30 on the road). 11.5 back in the wildcard with 57 games to play. Ottawa have been in last place since June 11th and are four games back of fifth place Pawtucket. Even if division leading Buffalo win only half of their remaining 57 games, (78 wins total for the season), the Lynx would have to go 43-14 in the second half simply to tie for first, .750 baseball! A wild card berth looks equally daunting. Scranton, Rochester, Indianapolis, Durham and Louisville winning only half of their games still means the Lynx would need to win 39 games, a .684 percentage. Realistically nearly an impossible task. This team, which won the division playing in Scranton in 2006, appear done for the season. Explaining the performance of the team this year and why their statistics rank so low in the league would make me the one person who has all the answers and could turn this team around. But I’m not a baseball manager or coach, (ie not an expert), and I’m not out there on the field everyday. Is it just one of those seasons or was last year done with mirrors? Here is what has happened to date and the stats and the team rankings in several key categories.
The starting pitching, was solid, at least in the month of April. The top three starters, Brian Mazone, Matt Childers and J.A. Happ were effective more often than not and Mazone and Childers were usually giving the Lynx least six innings. Then Mazone grew tired of waiting for the pitching desperate and pitching poor Philadelphia Phillies to give him his well deserved promotion to the big leagues and asked for and was granted his release so that he might play in South Korea. Looking back over the first half, Mazone leaving seemed to take the wind out of the sails of the starting pitching and things began to fall rapidly apart. On May 15th Matt Childers was placed on the DL, then suspended and not returning until July 7th. J.A. Happ went on the DL May 30th and was only added back in the starting rotation for Ottawa on July 6th after a one game start for Philadelphia. Veteran Ron Calloway retired on May18th followed shortly after by the retirement of another veteran, Lou Collier. Collier had just been named IL Player of the Week after hitting .524 for the week. Brennan King was lost for a DL stint after breaking his thumb. Jason Jaramillo was hot in April, ice cold in May and hot again in June, (the Lynx lone all-star selection). The team hit only one home run in April. They went 10-9 in April, 14-17 in May, 9-19 in June and 2-7, (thus far), in July.
The loss of Mazone and the injuries to Childers and Happ left the pitching staff in disarray as manager Russell had to use anyone he could find to start games. This, of course, had a nasty domino effect on the staff and simply wore out the bullpen, especially the middle relief.
There were too many blowouts and too many games with no offense.
Hitting: Third last in runs scored, (346 runs scored-an average of 3.98 per game). Ottawa is dead last in home runs with 32, (17 behind next to last Richmond), last in total bases with 1,066 and third to last in walks with 256. This virtually negates a third place standing in team batting average, (.268), as the team is last in SLG, (.360) and second last in OPS, (.689). The Lynx rank eleventh in doubles, (143), and ninth in OBP, (.333). The team ranks last in steals with 37, (30 caught stealing) The clutch hitting wasn’t there for the most part and the home runs were almost non existent until June. The base running wasn’t aggressive, especially first to third and second to home and especially on nights when the offense couldn’t get going. Seldom did Ottawa come back and when falling behind early, even by only a run or two, the offense simply dried up and blew away. Many opportunities fell by the wayside and like the pitching, one game the Lynx would score six or seven runs, the next night one or two. Often the first two batters in an inning would get on only to be stranded on base. Often there was a lack of productive outs and other times and the team speed wasn’t there to force errors by the opposing team. Only in June did the team start to hit the long ball and that seemed to coincided with the return of Brennan King from the DL. Joe Thurston and Chris Roberson saw a steady increase in their averages as the season rolled on and Gary Burnham became a doubles machine. Dusty Wathan was valuable from the bench and played three positions. Jim Rushford was consistent, Pedro Swann was a good veteran presence and Danny Sandoval was starting to hit. But as the stats show, putting together key rallies was not a strong point in this first half despite the fact that Russell was able to field virtually the same lineup and batting order everyday, something which should have kick started the offense.
Pitching: The pitching has been mostly bad and too often embarrassing. Last in wins, (35), losses, (52), ERA, ( 4.71), hits allowed, (841), runs allowed, (443), earned runs allowed, (397), WHIP, (1.53) and last in strikeouts, (536). Ottawa pitching didn’t fare too well in other categories either. They were fourth worst in walks allowed, (317), tied for second last in most home runs allowed, (77), and eleventh in holds with 19. They finished ninth with 22 saves, tenth in shutouts, (1), and thirteenth in complete games, (1).
After the release of Brian Mazone and the injuries to Matt Childers and J. A. Happ, the starting pitching was an absolute mess which in turn had a domino effect on the middle relievers. Manager John Russell was forced to use anyone he could find to help out his remaining starters. However, one starter who was asked to carry a heavy load simply couldn’t get things going in a positive way and was finally sent down to Double A Reading. Zach Segovia pitched decently but couldn’t catch a break for his first few starts and then was hit hard and hit often in his last few. The organization simply couldn’t wait any longer for Segovia to come around and he was sent to Double A Reading. The middle relief pitching was in a constant state of flux, players being sent to Reading and back, Philadelphia and back and even to Single A Clearwater, back to Philadelphia, back to Ottawa and so on and so on. Rick Bauer was with the team for a short stint but was hit hard in every appearance and was released. Heath Totten was very bad, good, very bad, good etc. as a starter and Eude Brito was supposed to be a relief pitcher but was asked to start eight games, often exited early with the Lynx well behind. There were a couple of bright spots on the staff late in the second half-the pitching of Charles Weatherby III and Landon Jacobsen, both promoted from the lower minors. They pitched consistently in their six combined starts and combined for three wins. Jason Anderson and Joe Besinius were ineffective and closer Brian Sanchez who earned a team leading ten saves despite an ERA of 5.40 was recalled by Philadelphia. Fabio Castro was solid, Kane Davis and Anderson Garcia effective.
Manager John Russell wasn’t making any excuses, simply stating the obvious to an obvious and somewhat rhetorical question-the team wasn’t getting the job done and they would have to start doing better.
This year I’ve tended to regard Reading as our AA club much moreso than Ottawa, simply because of the complete inequality of each club’s roster talent. Reading: Carrasco, Maloney, Overholt, Segovia, Costanzo, and Moran vs. Ottawa: Bisenius, Castro, Happ, and Jaramillo. I didn’t include Merchan in Reading’s list just because he’s 26, but even without him Reading’s roster is just far more talented. The staff is dominant in AA, while in AAA it’s awful and heavily reliant on the bullpen. I’d say if Ottawa has any clear talent edge, it’s in the bullpen. Injuries have obviously played a big role at all levels of the organization this year, but until some of our younger talent develops (in say 1-3 years) we won’t see any improvement in Ottawa as a team. Thankfully we’ve got a lot to look forward to.
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“This year I’ve tended to regard Reading as our AA club much moreso than Ottawa…” AA was meant to be AAA.
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We could be almost horrified at the lack of position player prospects at the AAA and AA levels…were it not for the lower minors containing quite a few really promising guys.
The pitching stop-off point to the MLs seems to be Reading…perhaps becausae it’s close for look-sees AND because our prospect pitchers are best at up-n-comers from Clrwtr.
Next season (“Wait ‘Til Next Year”) there should be several of them at Reading AND AAA…who didn’t make it to the big club out of ST.
P.S. I’m beginning to be very concerned about J A Happ. At the end of last season the word was that he had found a way to increase the mph on hid fb from 87-88 to 91-93…which, for me, was terrific for a guy who had the other pitches to go w that fb…plus decent command.
With that encouraging news, there were many Phils’ fan who were certain he’d make his way into the rotation out of ST or soon thereafter.
His season at AAA has been horrendous re: poor command, he’s gotten hit around frequently, plus arm problems…which makes me wonder whether he’s likely to provide a good lefty to go with Hamels.
My concern extends to realization that maybe the best lefty we have is Outman…whose command is the main thing keeping him from being promoted to Reading. I’m pleased to say that he was MY choice after ’06 as the most promising of all our close pitchers.
Question is: is J A Happ a flop???have we anticipated too much from him??is he a throat-lump kind of guy?
All of the questions remain to be answered; my own hopes from ’06 for him have come to much uncertainty. Hoping for a second half recovery….
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Wait ’til next year does seem to be an appropriate thing to say – considering that the organization’s strength is in the lower minors, a fair amount of guys will be moving up to AAA next year, and some more (Cardenas, Donald, Marson) may possibly get moved up mid-season.
I’ve asked this question before, but it wasn’t answered: Is Brennan King considered a prospect? He isn’t too old, and his numbers seem fairly decent. Given that 3B is a gaping hole on the Phillies, will he ever be given a callup?
– Jeff
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