You’ve weighed in and given your reasons, now I’ll give it a shot.
Pitchers, excluding Carrasco
01. Josh Outman, LHP – There are a number of reasons why I think Outman is our best pitching prospect outside of Carrasco. #1, he’s lefthanded and has a low 90’s fastball. It’s rare to see LHP consistently pitch in the 91-94 range. He has 1 real good secondary pitch, his slider, and it’s a pure swing and miss pitch. He lacks a plus changeup at this point, but he’s putting up solid numbers at A+, and the only thing lacking is his overall control, but his BB/9 numbers have dropped every month since April, a positive sign. We also have to remember that he drastically changed his pitching motion before being drafted, and 2007 is only his 3rd pro season. I think he still has potential to be a #2 starter if he can hone his command and control and develop at least a major league average changeup.
02. Kyle Drabek, RHP – I think despite his arm soreness now, Drabek is #2 on the list. His April was excellent, with 9.23 K/9 against only 2.88 BB/9 and solid groundball tendencies. He struggled a bit in May, then came down with the injury, so it’s tough to really put a gauge on him right now. I think he’ll be back in August, and it should be a good indicator of where he stands. 3 months in Lakewood in age 19 isn’t a lost season by any means. He showed the good fastball curveball combination, and from everything I’ve read, the mental aspect of his game took a big leap forward this year. A healthy Drabek pushes Outman for the top spot.
03. James Happ, LHP – His debut didn’t go as planned, and he’s walked way too many guys this year, but he has shown that the strikeouts from last season across multiple levels weren’t a fluke. He needs to throw better quality strikes and not fall behind, but he has an average fastball with late life and two above average secondary pitches. You really can never judge a guy on 1 start, good or bad, but I think he’ll be back later this year, and I think he still has the potential to be a #4 starter in the majors.
And now, the hitters, sans Cardenas
01. Jason Donald, SS – The line on Donald coming into this year was that he was a decent all around player, but lacked the one dominant tool outside of his arm, and because of it, he wouldn’t be a regular MLB’er down the road, more of a utility guy. Well, he’s proven otherwise this year, first destroying the SAL, and now putting up solid numbers at Clearwater. Many guys make the jump and fall a bit, but his batting line is still solid. In 92 AB, .261/.352/.467. The big thing is that he has continued to hit for power, and with an ISO of .206, and he’s walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances. Those two facts, coupled with his position on the defensive spectrum, make him the best all around position prospect, considering level and age, in our system. He’s a good pure defender, though his range isn’t Ozzie Smith like, he has a rocket arm, and now he’s hitting for power and drawing walks. I’ll take it..
02. D’Arby Myers, OF – In the comments, I saw people kind of discouting short season players, but I’m not sure why. Myers is only 18, and he’s 6th in the NYPL in batting. He has a build that indicates power will develop and he has speed that needs to be harnessed. The Phillies thought that he’d struggle to adjust to wood bats and pro ball, but his baseball IQ is very high, and it’s evident in his work to date. He’s primed to start his age 19 season in Lakewood, which will make him younger than the league average for a 3rd consecutive pro season.
03. Lou Marson, C – Marson just turned 21, which means he’s been holding his own in Clearwater as a 20 year old, and he’s a catcher. He has shown good contact skills, but he’s also walking in about 11.3% of his plate appearances, which is a definite plus. He hasn’t shown a lot of power against RHP, but he’s raking against lefties to the tune of .388/.439/.510. While that’s still not a lot of power (batting average inflates the slugging %), the potential is there, and he’s only 21. I haven’t seen him catch yet, missed him when I saw Batavia 2 years ago, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate he’s a strong defensive catcher and does a good job with the pitching staff. Young catchers that can hit are a rare commodity.
Well there ya have it. This was a fun exercise, and one we’ll revisit in the offseason for sure. Just a note, if Savery had signed by now, I’d have him at #1B, basically tied with Outman.
Phuture Phillies 
Hey, Walt here. My pitchers: Carpenter, Maloney and Carrasco. Hitters: Cardenas, ah…. um… Give me a year to think it over.
With men on bases, Jimmie Foxx can be a pain, but Al Simmons can be a plague. ~ Red Ruffing
LikeLike
You rarely ever see pitching prospects projected as #3 starters. It’s always #1, #2, #4, or #5. I wonder why that is.
LikeLike
A case can certainly be made that Donald belongs in the top 4, including Cardenas. Don’t see him as #2 though. He is having a great season and looks like he can stay at SS, which is a big plus. This year is just such a step beyond his history that I am not sure how much to credit it.
I still think Mathieson is our best pitching prospect. Because of injury, you have to downgrade him a little. Below Outman and Carrasco, ok. Can’t see putting him below Happ, who also has injury issues.
LikeLike
Mathieson is right behind Happ for me. Mainly because Mathieson is coming off a serious injury, even if the recovery rate is high. The general recovery time from TJ, and not just pitching, but regaining control, is 18 months or so. That would mean sometime next May or so, we’ll have an idea.
LikeLike
No argument for Myers, I might sound ridiculous but I’d put Constanzo over Donald and Marson at this point.
The 3 Pitchers are solid. Edgar Garcia and Mathieson might sneak in to this list next year. But for now Outman, Drabek, and Happ have to be our top 3 prospects other than CC.
On another note; Naylor had another dominant start last night:
7ip 7h 1er 0bb 11k, lowering his era to .62. Hope to see him at Lakewood soon.
LikeLike
I like Donald, but I don’t see his ceiling as high as that of Cardenas, Myers, Marson, or even Golson or Costanzo. I guess if you squint real hard, you can imagine how he turns into Bill Hall, which is pretty good.
As for pitchers, I think you’re on the money with Outman and Drabek, but not as sure that Happ really outshines Maloney, Carpenter or the intriguing lesser-known guys like Bastardo and Naylor.
LikeLike
Ceiling and likelihood to reach ceiling are also factors. I think Donald can be a starting major league 2B, not sure about 3B, but I don’t see why not. Golson could be an awesome RF, but the odds of him reaching that point are less than the odds of Donald becoming a starting infielder in the majors.
LikeLike
With this excellent exercise now coming to an end (thank you!), it is an interesting thought to consider what the Phillies starting rotation could look like in 2009.
Assuming some mighty big “IF’s”: health, continued steady progress & no trades (all of which have a tendency to surface to some degree, when looking at a group of prospects), it would not be impossible to see a 2009 starting rotation that includes 3 lefties: Hamels, Happ & Outman — joined by righties Carrasco & Mathieson.
This fantasy also includes a few additional assumptions:
(1) Myers remains the “closer”
(2) Eaton is traded
(3) Kendrick is not a prodigy and is eventually bypassed or traded
(4) one or more of the 5 are not converted to the pen, which is unlikely (Mathieson & Happ may be excellent candidates, if there are better choices @ starting pitcher)
(5) other potential candidates do not ascend to a higher level than the aforementioned 5
(6) the Phillies do not trade for or sign a “real”, longterm #1 or #2 pitcher, which is highly unlikely
In this scenario, some of your favorites may not appear (Maloney, Carpenter, Overholt, etc.) but imagine who would be left @ AAA & AA: Savery, Drabek, Garcia, Bastardo, Naylor, etc.!! Not bad for an organization that has not produced a river of major league pitchers!
LikeLike
Interesting thinking Carthurs.
I’d think(hope!) Savery is starting in 09, though.
LikeLike
B.B.
Agreed! – BUT – He has to throw his first pitch for us before he can land in the Philies starting rotation and that would only mean that one of these other guys are in the pen or trade bait.
Many possibilities, when you have, what appears to be, a number of good arms in your system! Isn’t this nice for a change!
Thanks Again to PHUTUREPHILLIES for this site, his time and expertice!!!!
LikeLike
These are the kind of posts I love to read. Projections, ratings, hype…awesome. Personally, I’m overjoyed at the prospects we have on the pitching side right now. Here’s how I would rate them:
Carlos Carrasco
Kyle Drabek (projectability and family legacy wins out here)
Josh Outman
Joe Savery (when he signs)
Scott Mathieson (only this low due to injury – I love this guy!)
James Happ
Kyle Kendrick (assuming he still counts as a prospect)
Drew Carpenter
Matt Maloney
Drew Naylor
Edgar Garcia
Antonio Bastardo
Scott Mitchinson (I’m still holding out hope that he can put it together – So glad to see him pitching again)
As for hitters, I’m trying hard not to get too rapped up in the hot start by Donald. There seems to be no reason not to like him, other than the fact that he had zero hype coming into the season. Still, I’d rate our hitters like this:
Adrian Cardenas
D’Arby Myers
Lou Marson
Jeremy Slayden
Greg Golson (he’s starting to put it together – I think it’s going to happen)
Mike Costanzo
Jason Donald
Jason Jaramillo
Travis Mattair (I have a good feeling about this guy)
LikeLike
Oh and if we could convince the Phillies to let Savery hit consistently then he’d be high on the hitter’s list as well. That guy can rake!
LikeLike
I’d substitute Carpenter for Happ. Only agree with Myers when it comes to hitters.
LikeLike
Beyond the lists everyone is giving, I think we’ve got a very bright pitching future. Where from? The VSL Phils. Take a look at their staff (of course factor in that they aren’t necessarily facing top hitters, but still) and try not to be impressed. Colmenarez and Ballestas could very well be our next two studs to come out of latin america (can’t wait to see both of them advance through the organization).
LikeLike
I am not sure Colmenarez and Ballestas are studs. They are both age 20 this year and have had several VSL seasons. Hopefully they are late developers, but they are probably second tier prospects. Antonio Bastardo was a year younger and more dominant in the DSL before coming over. This year Miguel Matos is 2 years younger. Moises Melendez was even more dominant in the VSL last year and I don’t feel he is more than a second tier prospect also, though he may have been slowed by injury this year. The best VSL/DSL guys may be the 17-year-old that are getting regular innings but have mediocre stats (like Kirlian Campo and Ebelin Lugo.
The best finds in the Latin American leagues this year have probably been offensive players. Mexican C Sebastian Valle in the DSL and Venezuelan CF Winder Torres in the VSL. At age 16 they are among the best offensive players on their team (or in Valle’s case the league).
LikeLike