After Carlos Carrasco, who do you feel are our top 3 pitching prospects? Exclude Kendrick from your list, because barring an injury, he’ll lose his rookie eligibility this year. You can include Happ, because I’m less certain he’ll lose his status. Give your answer in the comments, you can leave it as anonymous if you want, and feel free to give your thoughts on why you chose who you did. I’ll give my answer on Thursday.
19 thoughts on “Pitching prospects…”
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Phuture Phillies 
Outman has been getting people out his entire career, has good strike out numbers, and is a lefty, he just needs to improve on his control.
Kyle Drabek has been on the DL, but given his reported stuff coupled with his age, he’s got to make the list somewhere
Sample size is too small for Drew Naylor and Bastardo, Monasterios is too inconsistent, and Carpenter’s peripherals look ugly. I’d have to go with Happ as #3
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I would say JA Happ is our top prospect since he is a little battle tested, left-handed plus his fast ball has improved to go along with his excellent control & change-up.
Second would be Maloney based upon recent success and rising up through the system as a proven pitcher but ceiling might not be the highest.
Third would be Outman as a LHP and great stuff but for a slider pitcher I wonder about his long-term health.
Mathieson was at one point the most ready but with the TJ surgery he would slide down but currently probably ranks 4-5 but realistically if he comes back healthy number 2 or 3.
Drabek gets all the hype with his arm & quality of pitches (maturity issues appear put to rest) as his ceiling is one of the highest yet he has yet to really put it together which I would say 4th at best currently.
I want to put Savery at 5-6 on potential but he needs to prove his arm is sound.
Edgar Garcia is another hype machine that still is worthy of high expectations but too far away to put ahead of Happ, Maloney, Outman, Mathieson, and Drabeck.
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I think this is a question that needs to wait another month (at least). Right now, it looks like 3 of the group of:
Outman: Great name, great game
Drabek: Plenty of potential and still young enough to be fine age-wise
Happ: Starting to scare me a bit
Mathieson: I believe he still qualifies as a prospect, he wasn’t too bad last year, and if he comes back from TJ with an extra 2-3 MPH like many other pitchers have recently, he could be very good
Bastardo: Small sample size, but he’s put up great numbers everywhere he’s gone and he’s still young (21 in his first half-year of full-season ball)
Naylor: I know little about him (ditto for Bastardo), but he was a top prospect at 17 coming out of Australia and is dominating right now, even if it’s only been 3 starts
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I am probably going to offend the performance analysis folks, but here goes:
1. Carrasco
2. Drabek – Still a number one, still has great stuff, still young. There are health and development questions, but high ceiling counts.
3. Garcia – Again, ceiling counts for a great deal. He is also very young. His last month has been unimpressive, but he can repeat Lakewood next year and be age 21 at Clearwater the year after.
4. Outman – Misses enough bats and has good enough stuff that he should continue to progress at higher levels. Also left-handed.
Beyond this I might go Carpenter, Happ, and maybe Castro. Don’t know enough about any of the short season arms like Nayor, Bastardo, and Matos to make real judgements. I am assuming Mathieson is no longer eligible here. He would probably slot behind Drabek if he was.
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Outside of Carrasco? Mmph.
I would go Happ, Drabeck, Mathieson. Then again, who would have thought Kendrick would do as well as he has done so far, so, its a bit of a crapshoot.
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Outman is a pretty easy choice after Car-Car. I would’ve said Bisenius a few months ago, but he is floundering in Ottawa. Zagurski technically could still count as a prospect, right? I’d like one of them to be a reliever, but the only one that really has grabbed my attention would be Pfinsgraff, who has started and relieved this year. The third would probably go to Drabek, who was pitching pretty well before a DL trip, and looks to have a ton of potential
So, Outman, Pfinsgraff and Drabek.
– Jeff
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Carrasco, Mathieson, Outman, Happ, Drabek, Garcia, Maloney in that order are my current pick for top starting pitching prospects. I’m excluding guys in short season ball and guys I see as relievers.
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If you’re going to hype up the greatness of Outman’s name, surely Bastardo’s name deserves a little bit of hype as well.
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A kind of an aside: we have two pitchers now in the VSL who should be promoted to Rookie Clwtr Gulf Coast Lg:
Freddy Balestas RHP 6’3″ 170, d/b 10-9=86, now 60IP 36H 13BB 52K 1.05ERA; and
Juan Juan Colmenarz LHP 6’1″ 165 D/B 10-22-86, now 57IP 43H 5BB 57K 2.05ERA.
Unless there are restrictions on their coming to the USA now, IMO they should definitely be on our GCL team.
On others in our system:
Outman (excellent w command, problem w/o it),Carrasco (a little more comfort level in AA is coming),Overholt (same as Carrasco w a little more time to get it than C), Mathieson (to begin pitching soon, then to AFL),Happ (no good w/o necessary command…with it OK), Castro (getting ready to join team in last half of season), Bisenius (unknown as to arm problems–to be worked out in AFL, too), Carpenter (disappointing college advantage but mediocre results–too many H/inn),
Naylor should go to Clwtr FSL w/o passing go NOW; Mach to same club, also NOW!!
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You know what the Phillies really have in their system? Junk. Can’t anyone see this? You have to remove the red rose-colored shades first. Look at Boston’s pitching prospects: Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Johnson, Clay. Even look at the Yankees: Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Horne. Look at the Red Sox hitters: Ellsbury, Lowrie, Anderson. Both these teams did all this in the last 2-3 years. All these players are PREMIUM prospects, and not junk. They are in demand in trade talks. I don’t see one Phillies prospect in demand; hence Gillick keeps saying he’s ‘trying’. Ya gotta compare to other team’s farm systems to see things 20/20.
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Walt –
We’re Phillies fans, remember? We’re used to having junk in our system. We’re just trying to determine which of our lemons we can use to make lemonade 8^)
– Jeff
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walt,
why dont you relax a bit ok? we all know that our system doesnt compare to those in Boston, arizona, and the like, but does that mean we arnt even allowed to think about what we have? No one made such allusions as to say we are in their league we’re merely just thinking about what we have. Besides, your wrong. There are a few phillies prospects that would be very desirable on the market, however Gillick and the front office has finally done the right thing and said that we need to make a commitment to the young saying that kids like carrasco and drabek are unavailable.
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Cynucism may be justified…but PG along w mgmt have collected lots of good prospects for the mound and for the field.
Just take a look at the guys at the Dominican Summer Lg ande Venezuela SL.
There are players headed for the USA w good pro backgrounds in those lgs. Just look there.
We’re also developing a bunch of fielders and pitchers in the GCL through Clwtr FSL, with the upmost levels weak…but to be radically improved, IMO.
Maybe to be a Phils’ fan might well lend an air of frustration RE; farm system.
BUT
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Mathieson, Outman, Castro & Happ
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Hey Walt, gotta disagree.
Buchholz is a grade A prospect, but he wasn’t prior to this year. He was a pretty good pitching prospect, but he wasn’t in the Top 25 of baseball discussion like he is now. Prospects tend to show a great deal of variance from year to year and can see their stock rise and fall drastically…that’s why they are prospects. Masterson, Clay and Johnson were high draft picks (Masterson was a bonus baby) and should be pitching well. Ellsbury is a legit prospect, Lowrie is a AAAA player. Lars Anderson is legit.
The Phillies do not spend like Boston and New York in the draft. That point is fair, and I’ve made it over and over again. But, pitching depth is a strength of our farm system, and the overall state of the system looks better now than it did 2 years ago, and that’s something considering we graduated one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Hamels last year. The guys we have might not be flashy, they may not be BA darlings, but sites like that, just like the national media, tend to favor the large exposure teams like Boston and New York. I’d just look at the results before completely casting aside everything in our system. Carrasco isn’t junk, and there are plenty of others who aren’t junk either.
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Carrasco #1 by a mile, Drabek #2 based on potential, Happ #3 based on readiness.
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I’d put Happ behind Carrasco… He’s a lefty, he’s close, and he just needs to improve his command a bit to become a valuable rotation piece.
None of the other more polished guys really pique my interest, so after that I’ll go Drabek then, ohhhh, Bastardo based on age/potential.
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Looking at ALL the pitchers in our system, but excluding the VSL and DSL (where lurks several more pitching prospects), my take on the whole system is as follows, but commentary that it is a to see so many lefty pitchers scattered among them, because IMO lefty pitcherrs are a premium in the MLs.
So:
M. Matos, RHP; Scott Michinson RHP (arm recovered?; always liked this guy who had great command and an effective fb, but out onm DL: too long; comeback uncertain);C. Rhoads, RHP; Jake Diekman, LHP; Drew Naylor, RHP; C. Chapman, RHP; W. Harris, LHP; J. Rocchio, RHP; S. Escalonis, LHP; D, Byrd, RHP; e. Garcia, RHP; C. Monasrios, RHP; K. Drabek, RHP; B. Pfinsgraff, RHP; A. Bastardo, LHP; R. Hill, RHP: R. Swindel, LHP; A. Carpenter, RHP; J. Outman, LHP; P. Overholt, RHP; C. Carrasco, RHP; W. Savage, RHP; D. Brauer, LHP; M. Maloney, LHP; F. Castro, LHP; J. Happ; J. Bisenius, RHP.
Of course most of them have labored at High A or lower w some, but few, at the AA and AAA level. But some more should be moving up more to at least AA during the remainder of the season. Add Savery, LHP, who should sign w/in several days.
IMO, a VERY promising group based on their results even in such a short time gone in the season. Good for the drafters in Philly. Now, does Spencer play OF or is he going to be groomed as a LEFTY pitcher??
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Drabek
Outman
Carpenter
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