Midseason Review, Part 3

Other Stuff

We’ll finish it off today, with 20 prospects left. Starting from the ground up…

B

Jarrod Freeman, RHP – Freeman was and still is a promising arm, but it didn’t work out for him in Lakewood. He got battered around, allowing a .518 slugging % in 43.1 IP. He’s still plenty young, so hope is not lost.

Jesus Sanchez, C – Short season ball.

Alex Concepcion, RHP – Concecpcion was one of my picks to have a breakthrough year, and he’s shown some positives, including his 10.3 K/9. He’s given up a few walks (3.99/9) and has averaged a hit per inning. He’s also been a flyball pitcher, which could jump up and bite him at the next level.

Drew Carpenter, RHP – Carpenter has struggled more at High A than I thought he would, but that is to be expected for a guy who skipped Low A in his first season. 6.51 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9 is not what you want to see, especially because he doesn’t have dominant groundball tendencies.

Scott Mitchinson, RHP – Recovering from surgery, short season ball.

Brett Harker, RHP – Harker was rolling along, stringing together save after save, but he’s blown up over the last few weeks, seeing his ERA rise above 8. A definite setback.

Matt Maloney, LHP – The jump to AA hasn’t been easy, and though he hasn’t dominated, he has held his own. His numbers aren’t similar to last year’s ridiculous Low A performance. Needs to get a few more groundballs and lower his walk total to take the next step.

Zach Segovia, RHP – I figured this would be the season where Segovia would show his true ability, after recovering from surgery and working his way back. His fringe stuff didn’t play in the International League, we’ll see how he recovers at Reading.

Brad Harman, SS – Harman was one of my picks for a big bounceback year. He was awful in April and May, but is turning it on in June, hitting .288/.344/.492. Time is still on his side, but he needs to finish the season on a tear.

Kyle Kendrick, RHP – Kendrick held his own in AA, throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. So far, he’s more than held his own in two major league starts, and might be up with the club to stay.

The B+ guys

Ben Pfinsgraff, RHP – People questioned me for rating him so high, but he was dominant in Lakewood in relief, only hurting his overall numbers when he was pressed into the starting rotation due to injuries. Put up a 1.64/9 BB rate to go with 10.36 K/9 at Lakewood. Being used as a starter at Clearwater for the time being, but I think he’ll ultimately end up a reliever and move quickly.

Dan Brauer, LHP – Brauer came out of the gates strong, but hit the wall and is now on the disabled list. When he was rolling along, he was striking out guys and getting groundballs, though he did issue too many walks. I’m not sure on the severity of his injury, but I’m hoping he can log a few more innings this summer.

Joe Bisenius, RHP – Talk about your disappointing seasons. Bisenius looked poised to claim a spot in the bullpen in the spring, and he surely would have been the first guy up if that didn’t happen. Well, it hasn’t worked like that. For whatever reason, he’s lost complete effectiveness, allowing opposing hitters a .323/.414/.469 batting line. He also has identical BB and K rates, at 6.46/9, and neither number is good. Lefties are absolutely destroying him, to the tune of .444/.500/.667 in 36 AB. Not good.

James Happ, LHP – Happ has been all over the place, including throwing a 5 inning no hitter and the disabled list. He’s keeping the hits down somewhat, he’s striking out his share, but he’s also allowing too many walks. I still wonder if he’s 100% or not, but he looks likely to make his major league debut sometime later this week/weekend.

The A- guys

Edgar Garcia, RHP – It’s been an up and down campaign for Garcia at Lakewood. Just 19, he’s young for the league and has held his own, but the strikeouts still haven’t come with the frequency you’d like, and he’s been very hittable so far. The walks are still down, and he is getting more GB than FB, so there are silver linings here.

Josh Outman, LHP – Outman’s run at Clearwater has been impressive, as he’s struck out nearly a hitter per inning while limiting the long ball and keeping strong groundball tendencies. His one weakness coming into this season is still his biggest weakness, as he’s walking an average of 4.70 per 9. He’ll need to harness his stuff and refine his command/control if he is going to become an elite pitcher at the next level. The one promising sign is that the walk rate has been dropping, from 5.70 in April to 4.98 in May to 3.42 in June.

Scott Mathieson, RHP – Still recovering from TJ

The A guys

D’Arby Myers, OF – My favorite prospect in the system. D’Arby is rolling right through Williamsport.

Adrian Cardenas, 2B – Cardenas has been steadily improving, and is looking like he’s going to end up right where he needs to be. .291/.350/.437 so far, and an even better June, at .343/.425/.429. You want to see the slugging % a bit higher than .437, but he is still filling out and maturing physically, and the strength will probably come later.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP – After a slow start, Carlos has been unhittable for much of the last two months. At only 20, he’s one of the youngest pitchers in AA, and his first start showed he belongs. With a solid 10 start finish this season, he’s in line for a September call up, and could be in the majors by sometime in 2008. Carrasco was and still is our top prospect in the system.

17 thoughts on “Midseason Review, Part 3”

  2. Assuming that Mattair is the 3b of the future, and that Utley will be in Philly for a while, where does Cardenas fit in the Phillies plans?

    Speaking of Mattair, an interesting start down in the GCL for him. A not so great .235 batting average (4-17, 1 double) after four games, but he has driven in five and scored three. Nice run production.

    – Jeff

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  5. Not necessarily. If Utley’s defense slides in 3-4 years, and Cardenas is a plus defender, it might make sense. You normally move a guy down the defensive spectrum as slowly as you can. Putting Cardenas in LF right away is dropping him all the way to the bottom of the line.

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  6. Maybe so. Feel like that’s over thinking things to much. Assuming Utley’ s still a stud, I wouldn’t want to mess with that, by switching him up. But, that’s just me. I look at it as more of a good “problem” to have.

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  7. Although he was a mid-season pick-up, you might take a look at LHP RJ Swindle down in Lakewood. In short, he has been dominant and has absolutely killed lefties. (.083 batting average against) He has struck out 10 of the 13 lefties he has faced. Righties are only hitting .180 off of him and he doesn’t walk anybody, while striking out more than 12/9ip.

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  9. He had just turned 23 last season when he put up similar numbers for the Yankees SAL team. Pfinsgraff is about 4 months younger than Swindle and and was only promoted to high A a week ago. Pfinsgraff also did not have near the numbers last season that Swindle did, but he is a B+ guyand Swindle fringe? Swindle finished 2006 with an appearance in AAA for the Yankees getting a Save and was signed to a AA contract with the Yankees for 2007, posting 4IP, 2H 0BB, 0ER and 5Ks in Spring Training, including a game against the R-Phils. If you can look at his professional numbers and find anything that warrants him being considered fringe, I will concede to your opinion.

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  10. OK, here’s the difference. Pfinsgraff was drafted in 2006. Guys drafted in 2006, for the most part, are still prospects a year after they are drafted. Swindle was drafted in 2004 by Boston, and was then released, going to play in the Northern League for part of 2 seasons. Last year, he re-surfaced with the Yankees, and they cut him loose. He had good numbers, but if the Yankees, a team starved of pitching, cut the guy loose, what does that say?

    Pfinsgraff was good in his debut last year, very good actually, and was dominant in relief this year at Lakewood before being promoted. He’s now in High A. Swindle has good numbers now, but is doing it at Low A, and has already been pitching in Independent leagues. You don’t wind up out of the pro ranks that soon if you have a great arm and great stuff.

    I’ll re-evaluate him at the end of the year, if he’s even in the Phillies system.

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  11. You are letting the transaction wire influence your thinking. While most of the time that is sound reasoning, in this instance it is not. Swindle has had outstanding numbers everywhere he has pitched (including the independent leagues-where in both cases he was the youngest player in those leagues).

    A back injury caused his departure from the Sox and the Yankees have no excuse (after seeing him pitch against his team this year in the Atlantic League, Tommy John called the Yankees and asked what the hell they were thinking releasing this guy). The bottom line for the Yankees was he did not throw hard enough.

    As the Phils have already asked him to return for next season, it is a good possibility you will be able to re-evalute him if he elects to re-sign with the team. By the way, if he is in AA to start the 2008 season does he become a prospect again?

    In the meantime, try being a little more open-minded and you might see everything is not always as it appears. Ask anyone associated with the BlueClaws if Swindle is a legit prospect.

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  13. In the meantime, try being a little more open-minded and you might see everything is not always as it appears. Ask anyone associated with the BlueClaws if Swindle is a legit prospect.

    Just as you accuse me of having an agenda, it’s pretty clear you do as well, so either you know him personally or know someone who does 🙂 That’s fine. And to answer your question, if he returns next year and makes it to AA, then yes, I’ll consider him a prospect. He’s a fringe guy right now, but that doesn’t mean a fringe guy can’t turn into a legit prospect again. By the same token, a legit prospect can bomb out and seriously hurt his prospect status.

    Don’t know much about Bolt at all to be honest.

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  14. Fair enough with regard to Swindle. You are correct I do know him, but I still think his numbers this year and previously are eye-popping. Besides, if things keep going poorly for Phillies pitchers, Swindle may find himself in AA sooner than anyone anticipates.

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  15. Here’s what you have to realize. I root for every guy in the Phillies organization, but I’ve been following the minors closely for a while now, and most times, guys who are 23-24 in Low A and pitching in relief don’t have much upside. You’ll always see the exception to the rule, but that’s why they call it an exception. I’ve never seen Swindle pitch, I can’t comment on his stuff. If he keeps getting guys out on a regular basis, then he’ll stick. The prospect game is always changing, guys are raising/lowering their stock every month. I never close the door on someone until they are released or traded. I have nothing against your friend, I just want to see him carry over the numbers at High A soon, and then AA, that’s all.

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  16. If you get a chance to see him, you will enjoy watching him pitch. He is a fan favorite. There is something entertaining watching a hitter screw himself into the ground swinging and missing at a 52 mph curveball and then swinging late on a 80 mph fastball.

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  17. Uh-oh. Edgar Garcia left last night’s game after 3 batters with an “injured arm”. This has been some year for injuried pitchers in this organization.

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