Jon Lieber hit the DL, and from the way it looks, he won’t be back for a while. I have to think Gillick is scrambling to try and trade for a starter at this point, but will probably have to use an internal option for at least a start or two as to not be held over the barrel. A few weeks ago, I lobbied for Kyle Kendrick to get a shot, and in two starts so far, he’s more than held his own. Kendrick was our best option at the time, but let’s see who the best option is now…or should I say, the least damaging option.
Ottawa
Eude Brito – Eh, we’ve already seen this movie, and it doesn’t end well. On the 40 man, so that’s one point in his favor. Below average stuff and poor numbers this year is ten points against him.
Fabio Castro – Being used in relief still, probably not an option.
JD Durbin – This guy might get some support, but I don’t know that he’s the best choice. He is on the 40 man, but his peripheral numbers indicate trouble ahead. In 4 June starts, he’s sporting a 3.38 ERA in 24 IP, but he’s allowed 24 H and 8 BB with only 17 K, and he has a GB:FB ratio of less than 1 and he’s give up 3 HR. I really don’t know that he’s ready, and the problem is, if he bombs out in 1 start and they demote him, I think he’ll have to clear waivers again. They worked hard to get him through waivers earlier, I don’t think they’d want to give up on him after 1 start if they thought he had potential.
Heath Totten – A mercenary but not quite over the hill, he’s struggled since being promoted to Ottawa, he isn’t going to help.
Bubba Nelson – Not quite a mercenary yet, but not really a prospect. Nelson was pitching well, but got rocked in his last start. As I mentioned last time, his fringy control kind of worries me and I still don’t think he’s the right choice.
Reading
Landon Jacobsen, Tim McClaskey – No.
Zach Segovia – Eh, no. I don’t know if he’s pitching through an injury this year or what the case is, but he’s been brutally bad. The low strikeouts are finally catching up to him, and he’s been knocked all over the International League, and now he’s in Reading. He pitched well in his 1 start, but I don’t think I’m ready to say he’s the guy. However, it is kind of curious that he was demoted, and the Phillies do seem willing to take guys from Reading to the bigs. Segovia might be their choice, he’s not mine though..
Pat Overholt – No. He just got called up to AA, and the results haven’t been good.
Matt Maloney – Maloney is one of my finalists for the spot, but I think I ultimately have to pass. His June numbers are better, allowing 10 BB and 16 H in 24 innings, with 23 K and more GB than FB, but his overall control is just still too spotty for my liking, as he allowed only 2.91 BB/9 in May, but he’s back up to 3.75/9 in June. He doesn’t have plus stuff, he has good deception in his delivery, but if he nibbles at the major league level, he’ll get knocked around.
Carlos Carrasco – CC is still the best pitching prospect in the org, he made a nice start in his Reading debut, but I don’t think he’s the right choice. Let him get his feet wet, give him 10 AA starts, and if we need help in September, he’s your guy.
So, if you’ve been playing process of elimination, you realize the last guy left is..
JA Happ – To me, Happ is the least bad option of this group. Every pitcher has his flaws, and Happ has flaws too, but I think he represents the best bet now, and the guy with the most upside. Happ has made two appearances since coming off the DL with minor arm trouble. In 7 IP, he’s allowed 8 H, 5 BB and 10 K. Obviously those numbers aren’t great, and overall, I am concerned about his control, but the strikeouts have been there all season, and when he was right, he wasn’t allowing many hits. In April, when he was 100%, he allowed only 14 H in 22 IP. His May numbers are clouded by a few real bad outings, which ultimately led to him going to the DL. He’s done a good job overall, but has had better success against LH batters. I bring that up, because if he’s starting against the Mets, it would be nice to have a lefty facing Delgado and turning around Reyes and Beltran. Sure, that’s trivial, but it’s something.
Happ is not on the 40 man, so a move will have to be made. It’s certainly not the perfect choice, but I think it’s where I’d go if I were the Phillies. Happ has good moxie, and while I hate to use intangibles in an argument, I think he’d handle a “beating” pretty well, should he not have his best stuff. He struggled this spring, but bounced back with a strong April north of the border. Give ole’ JA a shot.
Phuture Phillies 
Agreed on all points. Not much else to say… Kendrick was the logical move last time, and that’s the way they went. Since I assume Happ would’ve gotten the call over Kendrick if he’d been healthy then, I’d be pretty surprised if JA didn’t get his chance now.
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Trade for a pitcher???
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Brett Myers will soon be off the DL s o I guess he is an option
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Very valid points, Happ will be my choice too, but just a question . How about Anderson Garcia, may be to raw and I dont want to rush him but he has good numbers
Anderson Garcia 0 2 3.12 14 0 0 0 7 17.1 16 6 6 1 0 1 19 0.98 0 13
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Great site. First time adding my thoughts. I’m not well connected to the organization, but I’ve been told of whispers from within about possibly moving Carrasco through the system rather fast. Another quality start or two in AA may spell the call to the big leagues. Have you heard anything along those lines?
And with that said, you either go with Brett Myers or Happ. And assuming you don’t want to risk Myers getting injured by attempting to stretch him out again, the answer seems obvious. Happ was the guy most pinpointed as the guy who would be the #1 guy in the case of an emergency. He seems ready to go.
And with that said, a few more good outings for Durbin may spell the call to the bigs in the bullpen? If Durbin contiues to pitch well, I have to imagine he and Romero may be called up.
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Garcia is a reliever only.
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According to Zolecki and Lauber, Brito was removed from the 40 man roster. I also would go with Happ.
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Happ is still on a limited pitch count. I think the big caution with him is the injury he suffered. It’s supposed to be an elbow problem of some sort. The Phillies don’t reveal much regarding their players’ injuries. So I guess Happ would be the guy if his injury was truly minor and he’s fully recovered.
If they still need to baby Happ, the big leagues may not be the best place to do so. I’d probably want to give Nelson a shot. Durbin is actually the better guy but as you pointed out, he can’t be sent back if they bring him up. (That might not be a terible thing though. Durbin is probably better than Condrey, Mesa and even Hernandez. He might be a decent bullpen guy if he bombs as a starter).
Happ is really the only guy who is possibly good enough to be a pretty decent big league pitcher right now if he’s healthy. The other guys might give you a couple of good starts if you’re lucky.
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Until Happ gets stretched out again and proves he is returned to health, Maloney probably the best of a bad set of choices. Sure would be nice to still have Gio Gonzales and Floyd and $10 million burning a hole in our pockets, with which to take on someone’s salary dump. We could be like Yankees and trade for an established OF or 3B and get a #4 starter thrown in, by eating all of salary and passing on a few fringies like Henry, Moran, Anderson Garcia, and Sanchez.
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I’d probably send Nelson out as the sacrificial lamb on Friday–too bad it’s against the Mets–and hope that by the time the slot comes up again, Happ is sufficiently stretched out to give it a shot on a longer-term basis.
Otherwise, Maloney would be my choice.
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Madson is the starter on Thursday. I’m also for Happ getting the call for Saturday.
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Just a few choices…and all notsohot.
Happ’s start today was nothing to encourage his callup.
Give him more time and check the results.
Meanwhile one of the over-the-hill gang could fill in as a 5th starter for a bit; their “experience” coulds serve well for a start or three.
No reason to call Happ up when he’s clearly not ready. In fact, it may be HARMFUL TO A GUY WHO IS STRUGGLING TO PUT IT TOGETHER.
GO GREYBEARDS,,,FOR A WHILE.
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Yeah, but it doesn’t work like that. When you use a guy like Bubba Nelson, you have to add him to the 40 man roster. If you send him back down, he has to clear waivers. You have to pick and choose who you do this with, because if he’s having a good year at AAA, he might not clear waivers.
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From the Phillies website:
Philling in: The Phillies plan to resolve their starter situation by Tuesday, with the candidates remaining J.A. Happ, J.D. Durbin, Carlos Carrasco or the remote possibility of trade. Pitching coach Rich Dubee said Ryan Madson, who started last season, is not an option. Happ is a strong possibility, as the lefty is scheduled to pitch Sunday for Triple-A Ottawa, and would have the necessary rest to pitch on either Friday or Saturday
So, it’s apparently only between those three. I like Happ for the time being. Let Carrasco get the AA experience and put him in the rotation for next season.
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I’d probably lean to Happ as the first choice, considering the options. Durbin would definitely be lost if sent down. With Happ, he has 3 years of options and is already in AAA. If he is not ready for the majors in 3 years he will not have panned out as a pitcher. I would try to avoid Carrasco if at all possible. It would be great if he spent the season in AA and then got a cup of coffee in September, though I also might shut him down and have him pitch 25-30 innings in the Venezuelan Winter League of the AFL. He could be in the mix next year, though I fear greatly the team promoting him this year. Maybe if it were September and they really needed to win. But not now. If both Gordon and Myers get healthy then I would groom Myers to be back in the rotation by August.
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I wrote this yesterday but failed to submit it; so here we go again!
Considering the present concerns with Happ’s health and the rest of the “less than sparkling” alternatives that you and your respondents have thoughtfully discussed, I would like to throw another name into the ring: Josh Outman.
I know, the first reaction is that he is in “A Ball” and that he is not ready but both Zagurski & Carrasco were in “A” at the beginning of the year; one is now with the parent club and the other has been discussed here as a potential alternative. Outman is older than Carrasco and has better “stuff” than Maloney and most of the alternatives at both “AA” & “AAA”. He continues to improve and appears to be a “genuine” prospect.
I am not sure whether he has the “make-up” to jump to the “Bigs” for one or two starts but if he does, this move could prove beneficial for: Outman’s development, the psyche of the “real” prospects in the organization (who are predominately well below the “AAA” level) and possibly the Phillies themselves.
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I like Outman a lot as a prospect, but I’m still worried about his control, and I think that would be the thing holding him back. His walk rate has dropped by almost 2 walks per 9 since the start of the season, but he’s still walking over 3.5 per 9, and that number kind of scares me. I do think he’ll make his big league debut sometime next season though.
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Good point regarding Nelson having to clear waivers again in order to be sent back down. The thing is though, with Hernandez and Mesa and Sanches and Condrey on the 25 man roster, I’d just as soon keep Nelson and drop one of the other four. If you lose any of them, who cares. Nelson has more upside (although limited) tha any of the “big four.”
Plus, Nelson isn’t a red-hot prospect so you’re not risking messing him up by rushing him. After an emergency start or two you can keep Nelson in the bullpen in my view. He wouldn’t be any worse than the guys in there now.
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You know what I say give Bubba a shot and just see what happens whats the worst he doesnt clear waivers so what I say just give him a chance I believe in him and right now he does have alot of confidence
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I do not see any Phillie 40 man roster that has Durbin
listed on it.
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