Midseason Review, Part 1

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Ok, so we’re putting the prospect cards on hold till the end of the year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a quick look at how the prospects in our system are fairing so far. Just a few quick notes. I won’t be looking at any of our new draftees, and I also won’t look at the new arrivals from the DSL and VSL, because we just don’t have enough data on them. Also, guys who are playing at Williamsport and the GCL now will be excluded, because a handful of games doesn’t mean a whole lot. With those qualifiers aside, let’s get started.

Important EDIT: The grades below reflect how I had these prospects rated prior to the start of the 2007 season. I’m simply using that as the order with which I briefly discuss them, the grade does not represent their mid year grade, just where they started the year. At the end of the season, I’ll assign each a grade based on their 2007.

Lower than a C-

Jermaine Williams, OF (D) – Hasn’t played.
Tim Moss, 2B (D) – Released.
Fidel Hernandez, SS (D+) – putting up a pretty mediocre season. He’s back in Lakewood now after bombing out in Clearwater. He’s a non-prospect at this point.

The C- guys

Derek Griffith, LHP – Released.
Max De La Cruz, RHP – Released.
Derek Mitchell, SS – Short season ball.
Ronald Hill, RHP – Pitched okay at Lakewood, promoted to Clearwater, and pitching well. Too old right now, needs to dominate for the rest of the season and make it to Reading to even be considered a legit MLB 6th inning guy.
Michael Durant, 1B – Short season ball.
Dominic Brown, OF – Short season ball, played 3 games in Clearwater before the season opened. Has immense upside and tools, still raw. Definitely a guy to watch over the next 2.5 months.
Welinson Baez, 3B – Toolsy INF is still more tools than results. .237/.294/.366 at Clearwater. Heading into non-prospect territory.
Carl Henry Jr, SS – Changed his name, didn’t change his results. Hitting .184/249/.384 at Lakewood, and like Baez, heading into non-prospect territory.
Greg Golson, OF – Golson has been hot and cold this year. Overall line of .265/.305/.418 is not great, but it does show some signs of hope. Hit .308/.327/.490 in April, and needs another month like that before the season ends.

The C guys

Nate Johnson, RHP – Struggled at Reading, back at Clearwater, because of his age, treading into non-prospect territory.
Justin Blaine, LHP – Disabled List. Walked more batters than he struck out, only .2 IP in June.
Quintin Berry, OF – Making strides here. .291/.386/.339 line at Lakewood. Low slugging % is a concern, and he hasn’t hit lefties, posting only a .232/.338/.250 line, while going .310/.401/.368 v RHP.
Michael Dubee, RHP – Less than 1 H per IP, good K numbers, but too many walks (4.60/9), though he does have good GB tendencies.
Darin McDonald, OF – Short season ball.
Nick Evangelista, RHP – Getting lit up at Reading, walking too many guys and not striking out nearly enough. Off the prospect radar.
Rob Roth, RHP – Short season ball.
TJ Warren, OF – Short season ball.
Tim Kennelly, C – Only 15 AB this year, can’t figure that out.

12 thoughts on “Midseason Review, Part 1”

  1. What level is Kennelly playing at? If he is backing up Marson or Sanchez i can understand him not getting many atbats considering they are more prized and backup catchers tend not to Pinchhit or anything often.

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  2. I don’t really follow your metric. Are you grading strictly on performance? Are you grading strictly on their current prospect status? Are you grading on their performance as it compares to their prospect status? I understand that these lists are inherently somewhat arbitrary, but the list makes little sense as composed.

    For instance, you have Nick Evangelista as a C prospect, where he bombed in Reading as an overaged player and basically quit. Whereas Greg Golson is a C-, where he’s still young, has immense tools and is performing ok (and significantly better than years prior). Perhaps if you were grading from the perspective that Golson should be a top prospect and Evangelista should be a scrub, and Golson is underperforming (hence a C-) whereas Evangelista is only doing what you expected (hence a C for average) then it makes a modicum of sense. But then we as readers have to guess at what you were expecting from the player before we can understand your grade on a particular player. This is a problem throughout the list and leads to wild inconsistencies (why is Hernandez a D+ and Henry a C- where Hernandez has little projection and is performing as such, but Henry is a C- where he is toolsy and is performing below even the most modest expectations?).

    I don’t mean to be too negative, cause I really do enjoy this site, applaud what you’re doing and read it pretty consistently. Just trying to offer some constructive criticism. Thanks!

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  3. If you go back to the beginning of the prospect grades, you’ll see my logic for the grading system. It’s based largely on performance, and then factors (primarily age) are used to put the numbers in context. Greg Golson has a much higher ceiling than Nick Evangelista, but Golson has underperformed every stop along the way and had only spent a half season with decent results at Clearwater, whereas Evangelista had actually shown some promise last season. I understand the need to look at tools and ultimate upside, but at some point, you have to be realistic about a player’s performance. Greg Golson may be lightning fast, with a strong arm, and lots of power potential. But, if he continues to put up a .300 OB%, he isn’t much of a prospect, and that’s why his grade was lower. Also, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between a C- and D+ prospect. Hernandez was ranked lower because he had less upside than Henry. A half grade difference doesn’t seem like a case of wild inconsistency.

    Again, my first post kind of explained it. Check here.

    New Feature: Prospect Grades

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  4. And not to toot my own horn, but my “outlook” on Germano, the first guy I graded, was spot on.

    Conclusion: Germano is probably better suited playing in a big park like PETCO or SAFECO and with a good defense behind him. I’d say he’s got a 40% chance of reaching his ceiling, he’s got a 40% chance of becoming a major league reliever/swingman, and there’s a 20% chance he languishes in the minors for the rest of his career. He’s a strike thrower, but lacks the stuff needed to overpower guys. He might not be the best fit in Philly for the reasons above, but with a strong AAA season in 2007, could be included in a trade to a better suited team, where he might be closer to reaching his ceiling.

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  5. Perhaps you should clarify. Unless I am misinterpreting what you wrote, the grades you list are your pre-season grades on last season’s performance, not how you would grade them for first half of 2007 and the comments are updates based on 2007 results. I may be misreading his comments, by I think anonymous misunderstood the timing on the grades.

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  7. You might want to put D’Arby in the top 5 soon. 7/8 with a double and 2 RBI’s most of his hits are linedrives and flyballs.

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  9. that does make sense. I apologize, I thought these were current rankings, hence people who were released getting c’s above Golson getting a C-… couldn’t really figure that. My mistake and thanks for the clarification! I should perhaps read a bit *more* consistently.

    Still think you’re a little harsh on Golson. In some article recently, I saw a commentator compare Golson to Mike Cameron, and I found their statistical profile striking, combined with the obvious physical similarities (i.e., raw athleticism). That may be lowering expectations for some, but Cameron is a solid major leaguer who had a handful of very valuable seasons. Golson might yet still have a future. At any rate, Cameron had very similar rate stats at the same ages, adjusted for a a bit lower K rate, but that is arguably made up by Golson flashing more power. check it out

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Mike-Cameron.shtml

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  10. Yeah, the thing is, I haven’t QUITE given up on Golson, but he really does need to start to show more on a consistent basis. His April was awesome, and while I don’t expect him to hit .315 every month, a sub .300 OB% isn’t helping his cause. I’m certainly not doubting his tools, but I do want him to start to be more consistent. If he can hit .270/.340/.420 the rest of the season, I’ll be pretty happy, and he’ll climb the rankings a bit.

    The Cameron comp is a good one. His age 23 season was his turning point, so Golson is still ahead of him. The big thing is, guys like Golson require patience from an organization, and the Phillies have another year after this one before they have to protect him on the 40 man, so we’ll see what happens. If the season ended today, Golson would probably be in the C+ range, which is still prospect territory.

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  11. I’ve seen Golson play 80-90 games. He isn inconsistant because he keeps trying to be a power hitter. Review his game by game stats. He starts out fine… Then he’ll hit a home run. Look at his game by game stats. For about two weeks after a power display… He can’t buy a hit. Then nhe starts the whole cycle again.

    As for Mitchell… He’s now at 3B. He’s made significant improvement since I saw him last year at FIL. He’s been playing every day in extended spring (with Myers, Durant, Brown, etc…) He will surpirse alot of people in comming months.

    Myers… He is going to be something special. Has all the tools. Still growing. Most important… Has his head in the game and eager to learn.

    Baez. Big disapointment. Send to Lakewood yesterday. The guy has no passion. Just goes thru the motions.

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