Some random thoughts this morning
* Carlos Carrasco and Pat Overholt are now at Reading. To be honest, I’m kind of worried about both guys. Overholt seems to have gotten away from what was working early in the season, that is, being a dominant groundball pitcher. In the last 8 or so starts he’s had, he’s been okay in that department, but not dominant. He does not have plus plus stuff, so he has to keep the ball down if he’s going to be effective, and I just don’t know that he was ready for AA, but maybe he’ll prove me wrong in the second half. As for Carrasco, I’m both excited and concerned. The last time the Phillies moved him aggressively, it was a disaster. Over the last month, he’s been locked in and as good as any pitcher in the minors. If he goes to Reading and gets bombed, what does it do to his confidence? I like seeing prospects moved aggressively for the most part, but there are some cases where it might not be a good idea. Cross your fingers that Carrasco continues to roll along. This also likely speeds up his ETA in Philly, with sometime next year looking more like a possibility.
* Adrian Cardenas is having a nice June in terms of average and getting on base, but the power still really isn’t there. However, I’m actually not concerned at all in that respect, and still believe he’s a 20-25 HR guy in the majors. He’s still just 19, and has room to grow, but the impressive thing is that he’s hitting .315 in June, and is walking in 12.6% of his plate appearances, and has only 8 strikeouts to go with his 8 walks. After accumulating 4 doubles in both April and May, he already has 6 in June, another sign that the power will begin to emerge. As I’ve touched on before, Lakewood is a pretty dominant pitcher’s park in terms of suppressing home runs, and offense in general. Cardenas’ home split is .240/.306/.372, while his road split is .325/.379/.504. When he moves to a more hitter neutral park next year in Clearwater, I think his overall numbers will jump up a bit.
* What is the deal with Mike Costanzo? Seriously. The last two seasons, he’s started out real slow, almost to the point where you just want to write him off, and then he gets hot in June and tears the cover off the ball. Why the slow starts? Is it lack of preparation before the season? The weather? Luck? I really don’t know, but take a look at his numbers from April and May, and then compare them to June
APRL: 90 PA — 7.7% BB rate — 34.4% K rate — 33% XBH
MAY: 116 PA — 9.5% BB rate — 31% K rate — 40.1% XBH
JUNE: 72 PA — 12.5% BB rate — 30.5% K rate — 63.1% XBH
It really does boggle the mind. With this type of consistency (in a bad way) it’s going to be tough to count on him to play a full season, because he’ll kill you for the first 2 months. Also, his defense continues to be a problem, as he’s committed an eye popping 22 errors in 66 games. I’ve mentioned it before, but I think now might be the time to move him to right field, take the pressure off of him at 3rd, and allow him to focus on his offense. He’ll be shaky at first in right field, but I think he’ll adjust, and he clearly has the arm for the position.
Phuture Phillies 
After years of watching this organization move players slower than I’d like to see, I have no problems whatsoever seeing Carrasco and Overholt get rewarded and promoted to Reading. It’s a move up in the minors, not a jump to the majors. There isn’t as much pressure at a Reading game than there is at the Bank, so I don’t think you have to worry about mind games if they struggle at first.
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I agree with you on moving Constanza to RF. You need a bat like that in the lineup, but you can’t live with the errors at 3rd. Or, perhaps LF would be a possibility, and perhaps he could replace Burrell in a year or two?
I’m definitely excited for Carrasco in AA, and, if he performs at the same level there, maybe a call-up this year isn’t out of the question with a few injuries. Just look at Zagurski, in single A, then Double A and called up to the Phils within a year.
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I agree somewhat with your position on Carrasco. The disasterous callup was 2 years ago and presumably he has matured since then and can better hammer failure (see his return to Lakewood and his June this year). However, due to the age issue, I think that Outman would have been a better candidate for promotion at this point, over Overholt and Carrasco. He’s been dominant lately and is the older pitcher. Seems ready for Reading.
On Costanzo, I haven’t seen enough of his games to get a feel for his problems in the field. Is there one particular thing that he consistently does wrong or is he simply all over the place? His K numbers are still staying the same in June as in April and May- not a good sign.
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Overholt probably belongs in the bullpen, don’t you think?
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Yeah. I was kind of surprised they tried him as a starter this year. His stuff seems better suited to 1 inning of work.
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it’ll be an interesting rotation in reading if the cards fall right during the second half. castro, kendrick, outman, carpenter, and segovia could all log some innings there, plus carrasco, overholt, and maloney look like they’re in reading for hte long haul.
i expect nothing less than a league championship.
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I don’t think Kendrick is coming back down. I think Garcia is pretty much toast, and Kendrick has held his own in his 2 starts, one against the best hitting team in baseball.
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OPur pitcher prospects mentioned have all been in the minor lgs for at least 3 years. Since we know we will need maybe 3-4 more pitchers to fill the staff, NOW is the time to ready each of them to compete for big lg jobs in ’08 to replace Lieber, Garcia, Mesa, etc.
Reading now, AFL in Oct-Nov-Dec and spring training in ’08.
Let us not place fragility on these guys who should be ready to be as men, accept and overcome challenges.
If not, why have we aimed at pitcher-prospects unless we want them to accept and overcome the barriers to ML membership.
Suggest we all take a look at the SF Giants who are suffering with 3 prospects of youth in their rotation…for preparation for this and succeeding seasons.
We MUST do the same: our prospects SHOULD be asked to overcome such challenges!!!And provide the club w its future.!
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Despite the large number of errors, Costanzo doesn’t seem all that bad defensively. He has a good glove and seems to have good range at 3B. He shows a strong but erratic arm. Little things seem to throw him out of synch and lead to high, sometimes very high throws. One time he’ll have trouble getting the ball out of the glove and then throw high, another he’ll do a momentary bobble but still have time and throw high. He looks like he has all the tools to be a good defensive 3B, but lacks consistency or consistent concentration.
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IMO the following pitchers NEED to spend time at Reading or Ottawa or Philly for the rest of ’07:
Kendrick,Overholt,Outman,Happ,Bisenius,Mathieson,Carrasco,Carpenter,Castro.Assuming Myers stays as closer (maybe not), there will be two spots open in our rotation in ’08 and a couple for relief.
These guys should then play in the AFL –I believe we can send 6–and the others in other winter leagues, to get themselves ready to fill those empty spaces.
Since I live near San Francisco, I take note how they are going with several young prospect pitchers who will develop into the mainstays of their near future staff.
Our guys should be doing the same….
And, let’s not consider them too “fragile” to meet the challenge…since each of them has been in pro ball for at least 3 seasons. Enough! Give them this challenge and watch them respond!!
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In a vacuum, I agree, they need to be tested. But Carrasco has the most valuable arm in the system. WHen he’s right, he’s unhittable. But the last time the Phillies rushed him, he completely crumbled in 2005. Now, he’s got a great year at Lakewood in 2006, and he’s been awesome after the first month in 2007 at High A. He’s being aggressively pushed to AA at age 20. I’m worried, because his upside is huge, but so is the potential downside.
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