Reason for Hope: Brad Harman

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If you remember back to this past winter, I have a bit of a soft spot for Brad Harman. He seems like a genuinely good kid, he made a bigtime impression 2 years ago, and he’s dealt with a ton of off the field adversity in his short time in the Phillies organization. His 2006 was marred by the death of his mother back in Australia, and he still played the season, despite clearly being in another place mentally. Because of all of these factors, I was very high on Brad entering this season, thinking this would be his bounceback campaign. Through April and May, it looked like maybe I was off my rocker. But in June, he’s turning things around. Could this be the start of him re-entering the prospect chatter? Let’s have a look.

What I wanted to do real quick was line up his breakout season with last season to try and peg exactly what happened, and then see how he’s responded this year.

2005, Age 19 (SAL): .303/.380/.442 — 9.6% BB — 18.9% K — 27.6% XBH — .362 BABIP
2006, Age 20 (FSL): .241/.322/.305 — 10.1% — 21.5% K — 21.6% XBH — .318 BABIP

Really, if you look at this, his biggest problem was simply not having as many balls drop in for hits. His BABIP in 2006 was “normal”, so maybe you can say 2005 was an outlier because of the higher BABIP, but it seemed like when he made contact, he was getting more extra base hits. His K rate went up 3% in 2006, his XBH dropped 6%. So, more of his hits were going for singles instead of extra base hits, and he was making a bit less contact, but drew a similar number of walks. What this tells me is, his BA was probably more realistically in the .270 range, with an OB% in the .340-.350 range, and a slugging % closer to .400 than .350. That’s still a decently valuable player, but the upside was clearly there.

2007, Age 21 (FSL), APRIL: 95 PA — 2.1% BB – 31.2% K — 28.6% XBH – .317 BABIP
2007, Age 21 (FSL), MAY: 84 PA — 10.7% BB — 20.2% K — 0.0% XBH — .304 BABIP
2007, Age 21 (FSL), JUNE: 44 PA — 6.8% BB — 20.5% K — 58.3% XBH — .355 BABIP

All over the map. Harman is hitting .293 in June, which seems aided by the BABIP, but it also means he’s hitting the ball hard, as evidence in the 7 extra base hits out of 12 total hits. His walk rate is lower than it should be, but with a lower walk rate normally comes a higher K rate, but that isn’t necessarily the case here, as his K rate has remained about the same from his 2006 line, and is close to his 2005 line when he was ripping the ball. Ideally, you want to see the BB rate back up around 10% with the K rate around 18-20%, and the XBH rate around 30% or so.

Again, maybe it’s just my blind spot regarding Harman, but I’m hoping this June hot streak propels him forward. He’s still only 21 and is playing in High A, so he’s right where he should be on the prospect age spectrum, he just needs a great second half, and then he can make the transition to AA ball next year.

4 thoughts on “Reason for Hope: Brad Harman”

  1. Enjoy reading your blog. I’m confused with using BABIP for hitters. Obviously with pitchers it works, but with hitters, I’ve heard it’s a repeatable statistic by many.

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  2. The average BABIP is somewhere between .290-.310. That’s a norm, but not universal. Some hitters are able to sustain higher BABIP’s, while pitchers are also able to maintain consistent BABIP’s. For the majority of players though, a fluctuation in one drastic way or another could indicate luck. Here is a decent explanation

    What is most interesting, however, is that the difference between the two has the strongest correlation at .609. While this might seem surprising at first it makes sense. Hitters with lots of power will tend to have a higher BABIP than batting average since each homerun raises their batting average while not affecting their BABIP. As a result, hitters whose hits include higher percentages of homeruns and a modicum of strikeouts will tend to have a large difference from year to year thereby increasing the correlation. By the same token hitters who hit few homeruns and don’t strike out much will tend to have similar BA and BABIP and consequently will have consistently small differences in the two. At the other end of the spectrum hitters who tend to strike out alot will consistently have higher BABIP than they do BA since strikeouts make up a larger percentage of their at bats.

    And a link to the full explanation.

    http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2005/03/dips-for-hitters.html

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  3. You should do an update on Harman, he’s been absolutely raking in Clearwater since this post. .272 in June, and he’s started July batting .400.

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  4. I’m Brads dad just to let you know his Mum didn’t pass away in 2006 and is still going strong he just strugled with the jump to Clearwater and being a long way from home.
    I speek to Brad on a regular basis and he is working hard on his hitting and the move to 2B I think has helped.
    We speak mainly about his mental approach and his mechanics, we all know he can play defence and every thing else will come with experience remember he is only 21.
    Cheers.
    Chris Harman.

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