2 thoughts on “First Round Mock…How’d I do?”

1. Since each pick impacts the following picks and it is hard to assess assignability, matching the player with exact team is extremely difficult, far harder than guessing where each player will go within a round our two. That said, I have a question for you, which you have touched on in your draft evaluation thread.

   You initially did not like the Phillies pick of Savery, but have warmed to it. Neither you, nor the blogger you compared yourself to, have Savery going in the top 30 picks. That is a rather steep misestimation of his value. Either by the Phillies or by you and the blogger. BA rates him closer to the value the Phillies assign him, at #21. So, why did you leave him out of top 30 and what has changed to make you happy with the Phillies pick.

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2. Good question, and two big reasons.

   1. I assumed all along the Phillies would take a bat at 19. I thought Mesoraco, I feared Burgess or Borbon. When I sat and did the mock draft, I got to the Phillies, and having assumed Weathers wouldn’t be taken, figured he made sense from the Phillies perspective, given the need for good young relief pitchers, and his fast track potential. I did not see them taking a college starter at all, mainly because the college crop was thin after you got past Price, Moskos, and Detwiler. My Weathers pick was based on him being the closest player to the majors and being able to help immediately. But at that point, I was already unhappy with the way my mock draft was looking, I kind of just went with an impulse.

   2. Savery really is an interesting case. Because he was coming back from surgery, and because his actual pitching this season hasn’t been lights out, he kind of went under the radar. BA had him ranked #21 in terms of talent, but he wasn’t projected into the first round by Callis. On June 5th, in the last draft tracker, Savery was not ranked in the top 30 and wasn’t even in the honorable mention department. So, he hadn’t surged up draft boards. Then you factor in the injury history. I really assumed he’d go somewhere in the sandwich round for all of those reasons. Talent wise, no one really doubted he had it, but it was a matter of his less than dominating pitching this year, as the bat was still there.

   My negative first reaction was simple…Rice pitcher. You can’t say “Rice” and “pitcher” in the same sentence without cringing. The second reason was his mediocre year on the mound this year. To me, my initial reaction was that it was a big reach, and that there were better guys on the board. But when I took my time and started to look deeper, I realized that he was probably being undervalued. His pitching performance this year was probably influenced by him trying to build up arm strength after the minor surgery. I read more about the procedure, and it convinced me that there was no actual problem with his shoulder or arm, that the surgery was actually done to prevent further problems, and that he was getting his strength back up to 100%.

   Now that I’ve looked at it even more, I think we truly did get a steal. It’s impossible to “predict” he’ll be the next Cole Hamels, or anyone else, but he does have top of the rotation stuff, and he’s a polished college guy. I think he’ll start in Clearwater next year and be in Reading before the end of the year, with a chance to win a rotation spot in ST 2009, if all goes well. That’s pretty good value at #19

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