JE posted this in the comments section of another post, thought it was worth it’s own slot. This looks MUCH better for the Phillies, and it’s quite interesting in some other spots.
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
6. Washington Nationals: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
8. Colorado Rockies: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, CF, University of Tennessee
13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
14. Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
16. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
17. Texas Rangers: Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (Conn.)
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
19. Philadelphia Phillies: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
24. Texas Rangers: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
26. Oakland A’s: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
28. Minnesota Twins: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
30. New York Yankees: Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS (Miss.)
While I clearly would love Mesoraco at 19, some of the picks above us don’t make an awful lot of sense. The rumors are that Porcello is asking for 10 million dollars in a total package to sign….even with a new regime in KC, I don’t see that happening. If they pass, they’ll likely take Ross Detwiler. At #3, Vitters makes sense, and he’s been linked to Chicago constantly over the last month. I can’t see Milwaukee taking Parker, as they are deep in pitching but kind of shallow in impact bats. This seems like a good destination for Moustakas or Heyward. Nick Schmidt to Colorado seems like the overdraft of the round. Florida loves prep arms, but Borbon would represent an organizational need, so I guess I can see the logic there. 13-24 make sense to me, but I feel like Main is going to go higher than 24. I think Fairley is a big stretch at 30, and I don’t see Arrieta going 18th.
Interesting stuff, no doubt. This is the best case mock for the Phillies that I’ve seen to date.
Random Comments:
1. The Pirates have had such bad luck with first round pitching that you would think they might be reluctant to do that again.
2. It would be fabulous from my perspective if Borbon, Harvey, Schmidt and Arrieta come off the board before the Phillies pick.
3. Is Ahrens and the Reds that much of a sure thing?
4. Why has LaPorta fallen out of the first round?
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1. Agreed. I think they are praying Vitters is there at 4.
2. I like Harvey and Arrieta a lot, but I don’t think Arrieta is a first rounder. I’d love to pop him at 37, but it won’t happen.
3. Sounds like it.
4. Lack of a premium defensive position, is my guess. Mills is a similar player, but he’s also probably a better overall hitter. Who knows really.
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In Mayo’s blog he’s saying that he’s heard that Doolittle could go as high as number 3 to the Cubs or 9 (D’Backs) or 11 (Mariners). He said if the Royals take Vitters, the Cubs could go with Doolittle and that two high ranking Cubs officials are at the Charlottesville Regional. Interesting, to say the least.
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Wow. That would be bigger than the reach on Tyler Colvin last year.
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So then it might go:
1. Rays – Price
2. Royals – Vitters (they’ll get killed by their fanbase for going cheap and taking yet another 3B)
3. Cubs – Doolittle (also will get killed by their fanbase for this pick I think)
4. Pirates – Dominguez
5. Orioles – Either Wieters or Detwiler I think
6. Nationals – Porcello (I think Rizzo, the scouting director has a NJ connection and will deal with Boras)
7. Brewers – Moustakos
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That would be a crazy Top 7. I think KC will ultimately take Porcello, and the Cubs will take Vitters.
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According to the source at Phillies.com, it looks like the Phillies preference list is:
Mesoraco
Dominquez
Aumont
Ahrens
I have some reserveations about Dominguez’ swing mechanics, but I’m very comfortable with that list.
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What’s scary is, I wonder who the next guy is. I think there’s a decent chance all are gone by #19. I’d be happy with any of those guys as well. I like Dominguez more than you, but I think he’s got a chance to be a legit all star 3B. His mechanics aren’t the best, but he can hit, and more importantly, he’s an outstanding defender. I think that helps relieve some of the pressure in the low minors, when you don’t have to micro-manage your defense on a nightly basis.
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I think it was allentown who mentioned it earlier that this year may see clubs challenging Boras for guy’s he’s trying to drive the price up on. If you accept your going to pay top dollar for a kid like Porcello, Boras can’t hold out, and the worst thing that happens is you get, in the case of the royals, the 3rd pick next year. If he falls, he won’t fall far.
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I’m going to write something up on that issue tomorrow.
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I am also concerned that all of the 4 listed names will be gone by 19. I could see Middlebrooks being a fallback as well as the other HS pitchers. I don’t see the Phillies going for a Boras client in the first so cross your fingers that other teams take those guys before 19.
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