The info over the next few days will come fast and furious, so I’ll just share it and we can discuss it. Two interesting notes from a chat with Alan Matthews and John Manuel at Baseball America today..
Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
Is there any chance Chris Withrow is selected in the first round? How does Withrow compare to fellow Texan Blake Beavan?
A:Alan Matthews: I first saw Withrow in a showcase at the U. of Arkansas right after last year’s draft, and fell in love with his delivery and projection. He was not invited to attend the Area Code Games last summer in California, which was curious to me because I thought, in terms of projection, he deserved to be mentioned in the same breath with the more-heralded Beavan. He began to turn some of that projection into present stuff this season, and is one of the sleepers of this year’s draft. First round? Might be a stretch there, but certainly I would not be surprised to see him go as high as the Philles at 37 or Dodgers at 39.
I know that our own draft guru JE is a huge fan of Withrow, so this must make him happy to see the Phillies associated with him at 37. Sounds good to me. Here is Withrow’s profile again, still no video.
And then this..
Q: Sean from Toronto asks:
How would you rank Dominguez, Ahrens, Mesoraco, Noonan, and Kozma based purely on their bats?
A:Alan Matthews: Strictly on the bat, it’s Dominguez, Mesoraco, Ahrens, Noonan and Kozma.
I still don’t think Dominguez will be there at 19, but if both he and Mesoraco are there, and we don’t take one of them, I’ll be ticked. Dominguez is a true 3B, potential gold glove defender, and his bat has improved this spring, according to another tidbit later in the chat. He seems like a lock at 19 if there.
Phuture Phillies 
Its not great, but its something (for Chris Withrow)
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Looks pretty smooth, from really far away, lol.
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I’d be happy with Mesoraco/Middlebrooks/Ahrens at 19 and Withrow at 37… very happy, indeed.
A couple of things about the first round in general…
1. Alan Matthews stated in his chat yesterday that Porcello and Wieters are the most likely to fall out of round 1 because of signability. This me off to no end. I can just see one or both falling to the Yankees at the end of round 1, completely undermining what the draft is supposed to be all about.
2. The Pirates are going to bring in Matt Dominguez for a workout, something that I would consider a “major development at the top of the draft”.
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The Boras factor is nothing new, but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating. The problem is, some teams realize the loophole and they exploit it, while the other owners just complain. No one can stop a team from paying over slot. But these owners that complain are the same ones that complain they can’t sign free agents because of the price. If they paid a higher premium in the draft, they could have the elite talent before they even become free agents.
As for Dominguez, I can’t say I’m shocked. He’s a guy I’m having a real tough time figuring out. He could go anywhere from 4-24 really. I think if the Cubs take Wieters, the Pirates will take Vitters, no questions asked. If the Cubs take Vitters, then it’s a completely different ball game.
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Were I running the show for the Phillies, here’s how I’d have my board two days out:
1. David Price
2. Matt Wieters
3. Josh Vitters
4. Rick Porcello
5. Ross Detwiler
6. Mike Moustakos
7. Jason Heyward
8. Daniel Moskos
9. Beau Mills
10. Jarrod Parker
11. Josh Smoker
12. Madison Bumgarner
13. Kevin Ahrens
14. Blake Beavan
15. Phillipe Aumont
16. Matt Dominguez
17. Devin Mesaraco
18. Matt LaPorta
19. Casey Weathers
20. Will Middlebrooks
21. Todd Frazier
22. Matt Harvey
23. Michael Main
24. Joe Savery
25. Brett Cecil
26. Peter Kozma
If we get a bat in the first round then I’d be inclined to go HS arm in the second (Griffith, Withrow or someone who fell. If we have to go arm in the first, I might be inclined to go bat in the second (Frazier, Suttle, d’Arnaud, Grandal, etc.)
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Jonathan Mayo’s latest:
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
5. Baltimore Orioles: Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
6. Washington Nationals: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
8. Colorado Rockies: Nick Schmidt, LHP, University of Arkansas
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
11. Seattle Mariners: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
12. Florida Marlins: Julio Borbon, CF, University of Tennessee
13. Cleveland Indians: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
14. Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, Henry County HS (Ga.)
15. Cincinnati Reds: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS (Texas)
16. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
17. Texas Rangers: Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch HS (Conn.)
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
19. Philadelphia Phillies: Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsatawney HS (Pa.)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (N.C.)
21. Toronto Blue Jays: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis-Clark State
22. San Francisco Giants: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
23. San Diego Padres: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
24. Texas Rangers: Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS (Fla.)
25. Chicago White Sox: Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland Christian HS (Texas)
26. Oakland A’s: Sean Doolittle, 1B, University of Virginia
27. Detroit Tigers: Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
28. Minnesota Twins: Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS (Okla.)
29. San Francisco Giants: Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun HS (Ga.)
30. New York Yankees: Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS (Miss.)
Much better than his previous two mocks, at least from the Phillies standpoint.
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Wow. Some really interesting developments there. I’m actually going to make that a separate post JE, it’s worth discussing.
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That would be a good break for the Phillies. With Borbon, Schmidt and Arrieta all going before 19, the Phillies have their choice of Mesaraco, Smoker, Mills and LaPorta (who apparently is out of the first round altogether, as a senior no less). I know LaPorta is probably limited to 1B but he put up .402/.582/.817 in the SEC this year. I think he’s worth a first round pick for somebody. Why would the A’s take Doolittle over LaPorta?
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Why would the A’s take Doolittle? Probably money.
As for LaPorta, I don’t know, I’m split. He can mash the ball, but how much time is he going to need in the minors? 2 years? Unless they can somehow turn him into a left fielder, I don’t know where they are going to play him. He can rake, so can Beau Mills, but guys that are going to be relegated to 1B on our team don’t seem quite as valuable.
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Doolittle over LaPorta makes sense to me for the A’s. “Doc” – that’s what us Hoos fans call him. 🙂 – is a very patient hitter (some would say too patient) with more tools than LaPorta. I think once he gets out of Davenport Field his hitting, particularly his power, will improve by leaps and bounds. Zimmerman didn’t hit that many more home runs when he was at UVA, but his power has started to show already. I kind of expect the same from Doolittle. Still, 26 seems like a bit of a reach. I’ve seen LaPorta play a few games on TV the past couple of years and he strikes me as strictly a dead pull hitter who’s going to have some problems at the pro level because of that.
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