If you’ve been following the blog here, you probably have a general idea that I don’t get too excited over guys who are too old for their level and putting up good numbers early. I warned you about Javon Moran when he was hitting .400 in the first month, and I warned you about Landon Jacobsen after two great starts. However, I can say that Jesus Merchan has me completely baffled. A few people had asked about him a few weeks ago in the comments section of an entry, and I kind of just dismissed it. However, I keep staring at his numbers, and I wonder if something is going on here. With all of that said, I wanted to take a closer look and see if I was missing something, see if this appears to just be another flash in the non-prospect pan, or if it’s something else all together.

Jesus Merchan, now 26 years old, was signed by the Minnesota Twins as a non-drafted free agent in 1999 out of Venezuela, and made his professional debut in 2000 in the GCL. The Twins moved him slowly, sending him to the Appy League in 2000, then the Midwest League twice, before advancing him to the Florida State League in 2004, at the age of 23. At this point, he was old for his league, but because he was a raw Latin American signing, it wasn’t that out of line. This is the point where his career kind of stalled out. He started 2005 in the Minnesota organization, but came to the Phillies in late May, and spent time at Lakewood, Clearwater and Reading. In 2006, he spent the majority of his playing time at Reading, with only 12 AB’s at Clearwater. So in 5 full seasons and 2 half seasons prior to 2007, Merchan had logged only 468 AB at AA, and hasn’t reached AAA. Generally, that’s the big indicator that he is a non-prospect because of his age, but let’s dig a bit deeper and see if there is anything to get excited about.

2000, GCL (Age 19): 135 PA — .314/.393/.356 — 8.1% BB — 11.1% K — 13.5% XBH — .042 ISO
2001, APY (Age 20): 144 PA — .271/.306/.383 — 4.2% BB — 12.5% K –33.3% XBH — .112 ISO

Not really anything too surprising here. His walk rate was cut in half, his strikeouts remained almost the same, but he racked up more extra base hits, probably on the strength of his speed.

2002, MWL (Age 21): 339 PA — .279/.336/.373 — 6.5% BB — 10.3% K — 25.6% XBH — .094 ISO
2003, MWL (Age 22): 432 PA — .296/.362/.390 — 7.2% BB —  4.2% K — 20.7% XBH — 0.94 ISO

This is a bit more interesting to me. When jumping to full season ball, his walk rate increased, his K rate decreased, and his extra base hit percentage decreased. The latter I can understand, but it’s surprising to me that he suddenly became more patient and made better contact when playing against more advanced competition….you’d think the opposite would be true, no?

2004, FSL (Age 23): 268 PA — .287/.336/.344 — 5.2% BB — 6.7% K — 16.9% XBH — 0.57 ISO

Here was the big drop I was expecting, but it came at High A in the Florida State League, not in the pitching dominant Midwest League. His walk rate dipped, his K rate went up slightly, but his power completely vanished. 23 is on the high side of the age spectrum for true prospects in High A, in fact, it’s bordering on fringe prospect, and he wasn’t helping his case.

2005, FSL (Age 24):  44 PA — .179/.273/.205 — 9.1% BB — 4.5% K — 14.3% XBH — .026 ISO
2005, SAL (Age 24): 121 PA — .277/.322/.339 — 4.1% BB — 3.3% K — 22.6% XBH — .062 ISO
2005, EAS (Age 24): 161 PA — .265/.311/.325 — 3.7% BB — 9.9% K — 20.0% XBH — .060 ISO

That’s a lot of hacking….A LOT. At Lakewood, less than 8% of his PA’s were ending in a strikeout or walk, that’s Juan Pierre like hacking. His power wasn’t there, but was a bit better than his two previous forays in the Florida State League. As a 24 year old who struggled in AA, it’s hard to image any hope for him going into 2006, but he was back and ready to keep swinging away.

2006, EAS (Age 25): 336 PA — .274/.313/.363 — 3.8% BB — 4.8% K — 24.1% XBH — .089 ISO

Actually, some promising signs here. He cut his strikeout rate in half, and his extra base percentage jumped up a little bit, boosting his isolated power. Still, that type of line from a 25 year old repeating AA is not going to inspire any confidence. One important factor to introduce here. His BABIP was .287, which is pretty close to league average. The importance of that fact will become clear in a few moments..

2007, EAS (Age 26): 146 PA — .364/.421/.512 — 7.5% BB — 4.1% K — 27.7% XBH — .148 ISO

Wow. Talk about coming out of nowhere. .364 after two full months? That’s quite the hot start. His walk rate jumped back up to 7.5%, his highest percentage over a large sample since 2003 and his times in the Midwest League. His K rate remains very low, as he’s struck out only 6 times this season, and his extra base hits are there, which means his slugging % isn’t fueled solely on his singles hitting prowess. His .148 ISO is by far the best mark of his career, beating his previous best of .112 in the Appalachian League in 2001. But here’s the kicker…remember I mentioned his .287 BABIP in 2006? In 2007, that number is .376. So basically, instead of 28% of his batted balls falling in for hits like the year before, 37% are now falling in…that’s a huge difference, especially for a singles type hitter. There’s a good chance that number will normalize over the next two months. There is a silver lining though. In April, he posted a batting average of .365 with a BABIP of .356, so it’s not completely out of the realm of reality that he could hit .300 this year.

So, now that we looked at his numbers, what does it tell us? It tells us that he’s having a career year, at age 26, playing in AA for the third straight season. I would NOT get really excited about him, for a few reasons. First, he still doesn’t walk enough. 7.5% BB is decent, and because of his low strikeout numbers, even more decent, but he is not an elite hitting talent, and we can’t expect his contact rate to remain this good at AAA or even the Majors. Second, he doesn’t have great speed. Most guys who never walk and never strike out are good contact hitters with good speed. Merchan has a total of 37 stolen bases since 1999, and has been caught 21 times. So really, he’s a singles hitter. Now, that’s not to say he’s completely useless. He’s basically a minor league version of Abraham Nunez. And if that’s the case, he might find himself a major league contract at some point, if a team is desperate enough, and he continues to make contact. Speaking from a prospect standpoint though, Merchan just doesn’t fit the bill.