This will be fairly self explanatory. Yesterday I attempted to outline the best and worst case scenarios for the Phillies picks, now I’ll take a shot at laying out the entire first round. My guesses are, well, just that, guesses. With so much talent in this draft, one guy sliding or jumping could change the entire composition of the first round. I’ll give small blurbs with each pick as to why I see it going down in that fashion. Only one person sent me their own guess at the first 30, I’ll post that after I give my rundown, then we’ll see who gets closer.

01. Tampa Bay – David Price, LHP, (Vanderbilt)

This is pretty much a slam dunk. Short of Price getting caught with a ton of cocaine the night before the draft, or his arm just spontaneously combusting, he’ll be the pick.

02. Kansas City – Rick Porcello, RHP, HS (New Jersey)

Everything points to Porcello here, but I think KC is making a mistake by passing on Wieters. KC doesn’t have a reputation of developing pitchers, and even though Porcello is gifted, he’s got some work to do.

03. Chicago Cubs – Josh Vitters, 3B, HS (California)

The Cubs have been on Vitters from day 1, and by making this pick, they’d positively re-enforce the notion that you take the best talent and worry where he will play later. Aramis Ramirez is the 3B now, but Vitters is 3 years away, and Ramirez could be long gone by then

04. Pittsburgh – Jason Heyward, OF, HS (Georgia)

This is where things get interesting. Heyward isn’t the 4th best player on the board, but Pittsburgh will probably steer clear of Boras clients, and they haven’t had a sterling record developing pitching in the last few years. Heyward has huge upside, Pittsburgh isn’t going anywhere any time soon, no need to take a college guy and rush him.

05. Baltimore – Ross Detwiler, LHP (Missouri State)

This pick is between Moskos or Detwiler, and Detweiller is the guy. Second best LHP in the draft behind Price.

06. Washington – Matt Wieters, C (Georgia Tech)

Hear me out on this one. Mike Rizzo, now the assistant general manager in DC, was the guy responsible for drafting Stephen Drew and Justin Upton in Arizona, both high profile Boras guys, both of whom wanted big time bonuses. Washington is getting ready to move into a new ballpark, they want to make a splash, and drafting a potential franchise catcher seems like a good way to start. Washington needs pitching, but they need everything, as they have the worst farm system in baseball. Wieters is as much of a sure thing as you’ll find at this spot, and he isn’t blocked by any catching prospects in the Nationals org.

07. Milwaukee – Mike Moustakas, C/3B, HS (California)

Moustakas is one of, if not the best prep hitter in the draft, and Milwaukee has been targeting him as he’s been jumping up draft boards over the last two months. He’s a Boras guy, but that shouldn’t dissuade Milwaukee.

08. Colorado – Blake Beaven, RHP, HS (Texas)

Colorado is always in search of pitching, and at this spot in the draft, Beaven makes more sense than Daniel Moskos or Jarrod Parker. Beaven throws hard and gets a ton of sink on his fastball, which plays perfectly for the friendly confines in Colorado. I could see Matt Harvey here, but I’ll go with Beaven

09. Arizona – Daniel Moskos, LHP (Clemson)

Arizona busted slot to sign Max Scherzer, so I can’t see them taking another Boras client like Matt Harvey here. Arizona has possibly the best young core of position players in baseball, but they still lack pitching, and pitching should be the priority here. Signing Scherzer gave them possibly the best college RHP available, and grabbing Moskos here gives them the best college lefty available.

10. San Francisco – Jarrod Parker, RHP, HS (Indiana)

San Francisco has always neglected the draft in recent memory, but they might be seeing the benefit of having a good draft with the emergence of Tim Lincecum, who fell in their lap last year. This year, the guy with the best arm in the draft might just fall into their lap as well. Parker is short (remind you of someone?) but has an electric arm, and is considered the hardest consistent thrower in the draft.

11. Seattle – Beau Mills, 1B/3B (Lewis and Clark State)

I think Seattle might want to go with a college pitcher here, but the top arms will be gone, so I see them going for the best possible power source, and that’s probably Mills. He can play 3B or 1B, probably not 3rd as a pro, but only Richie Sexson, the .199 hitting Richie Sexson, is blocking his path, and of course, the DH is an option.

12. Florida – Madison Bumgarner, LHP, HS (North Carolina)

Florida LOVES drafting prep pitchers, and at this spot, Bumgarner is the best pitcher not controlled by Scott Boras. Phillippe Amount is a possibility, but the hard throwing lefty has the edge.

13. Cleveland – Matt Dominguez, 3B, HS (California)

Dominguez entered the year as a potential top 10 pick, but was overshadowed by teammate Mike Moustakas. Cleveland has to look at a position player, as their system is firmly slanted toward pitching at this point. Dominguez probably offers them the best ceiling here. Matt LaPorta might make more sense, but with Hafner anchoring the DH slot for the foreseeable future, and Ryan Garko emerging at 1B, I think the pick will be Dominguez.

14. Atlanta – Josh Smoker, LHP, HS (Georgia)

I’m sure Atlanta would love Heyward to fall to them at 14, but I can’t see that happening. Atlanta does have a reputation of drafting Georgia prep stars, and it’s worked out so far, so this seems like a decent speculation. Smoker has quality all around stuff despite a poor last start of the year. He’s not repped by Boras, and is viewed as very signable.

15. Cincinnati – Kevin Ahrens, 2B/SS, HS (Texas)

Ahrens has been linked to Cincinnati for the last few weeks, and the pick seems almost inevitable at this point. They’d probably be better served taking a pitcher here, but I see Ahrens as the pick.

16. Toronto – Devin Mesoraco, C, HS (Pennsylvania)

Just yesterday, I had Mesoraco as my guess….but I had to re-evaluate. Toronto seems like they will take a prep player here, and they generally shy away from high school pitchers. If Cleveland takes Dominguez, that means Mesoraco is likely the top high school position player on the board, and he’s a non-Boras guy, so he will probably sign for slot money. This is painful, because I really wanted him in Philly.

17. Texas – Phillippe Amount, RHP (Canada)

Texas needs pitching, and they need power pitchers. Amount fits the bill, even though he is very raw. He’s generally seen as signable, and I think Texas might like to avoid Boras guys like Harvey and Brackman here, even though they’ve worked with Boras in the past. Amount offers similar upside, and probably comes cheaper.

18. St Louis – Matt Harvey, RHP, HS (Connecticut)

This makes sense to me. Jocketty isn’t afraid of Scott Boras, and the Cardinals don’t have a ton of pitching in the minors. Harvey has big time upside, and will only slide outside of the Top 10 because he is advised by Boras.

19. Philadelphia – Casey Weathers, RHP (Vanderbilt)

I struggled with this. The more I think about it, the more I don’t think Mesoraco will be there. Yesterday I said 80% chance, now I think it’s 50% or lower. If he isn’t there, and Harvey isn’t there, Weathers is the safest pick. Vanderbilt’s closer, he’s somewhere between Huston Street and Chad Cordero, and could make the team out of spring training next year. He throws hard, his secondary stuff is pretty decent, and he has the mentality to pitch late in games, closing for the #1 team in the nation this year.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – Michael Main, RHP, HS (Florida)

Logan White, the Dodgers draft guru, loves prep pitchers, and Main offers the biggest upside at this point. He throws nearly as hard or harder than Brackman, and is just as athletic. Some teams see him as an outfielder, but LA will draft him as a pitcher.

21. Toronto – Peter Kozma, SS, HS (Oklahoma)

Another prepster here. Kozma is one of the best true middle infielders in the draft, and again, Toronto just needs to interject talent into their system. I could possibly see a college pitcher here, maybe Brett Cecil, but I’m going with Kozma.

22. San Francisco – Matt LaPorta, 1B (Florida)

The Giants will need to add some pop to their system, which lacks a true power hitter outside of Nate Schierholtz. The Giants were reportedly targeting Beau Mills, but I think there’s very little chance he is on the board here, and LaPorta gives them one of the best power hitters in the draft, and someone who can move quickly. 1B is a black hole in San Francisco at this point, so I see them going this way

23. San Diego – Nick Schmidt, LHP (Arkansas)

Schmidt is the most polished college pitcher at this spot, so that’s where I see San Diego going. The signing of DFE Matt Latos gives them a power righty to start things off, and Schmidt gives them a solid lefty.

24. Texas – Julio Borbon, OF (Tennessee)

Borbon, a guy I highlighted as a worst case scenario for the Phillies, could very well end up in Texas. Texas could use a leadoff hitter with some pop, and his power might play up even more in Texas, a hitters paradise.

25. Chicago White Sox – James Simmons, RHP (UC Riverside)

The White Sox like drafting polished college pitchers in the first round, so Simmons seems like the obvious pick here unless Schmidt is still available. While he doesn’t offer a ton of upside, he’s probably a safe #4 starter in the future, that’s nothing to be too upset over.

26. Oakland – Chris Carpenter, RHP (Kent State)

Carpenter might be an overdraft here, but it’s tough to figure out Oakland. They won’t grossly overpay for a prep player, but if they can get a guy like Will Middlebrooks for slot here, they may go that route as well. Tim Alderson would be one of the top prep pitchers available here, and is also a possibility.

27. Detroit – Andrew Brackman, RHP (North Carolina State)

No prospect has fallen as far as Brackman, who was projected as a Top 5 pick entering the year. The potential here is enormous, and in the last two years, Detroit has shown a willingness to take players who drop due to signability. Brackman is a Boras guy, and he’s gone through a dead arm over the last month, as well as the death of his ex-girlfriend, and because of it, hasn’t pitched much at all, and in his last outing, was only in the high 80’s. It’s unlikely Brackman will get his 10 million dollar package he wanted, but Detroit might go over slot here, and if someone is going to do it, this is the spot. If he doesn’t go to Detroit, I see a full on slide, and him going back to NC State for his senior season.

28. Minnesota – Michael Burgess, OF, HS (Florida)

Burgess is one of the biggest high risk/high reward guys out there. He has tons of power potential and a cannon for an arm, but some wonder if his swing will translate to wood bats. Minnesota hasn’t been afraid to take a chance on guys like this, so I see a match here.

29. San Francisco – Aaron Poreda, LHP (San Francisco College)

Poreda is a bit of a project for a college guy, as he basically is a fastball pitcher with fringy secondary pitches, but he will sign for slot money here, and with some fine tuning, could develop into a #4/#5 starter, or at worst, a back of the bullpen reliever. The Giants normally loathe the drafting process, but with 3 picks this year, they’ve got a shot to pull in some quality talent.

30. New York Yankees – Jake Arrieta, RHP (TCU)

Arrieta hasn’t had the best season, and has shown inconsistent results, but he still has a good arm and good secondary pitches. With a solid season, he’d have probably been a Top 15 pick, so the Yankees might get a steal here.

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Reader kgengler sent in his picks, and here they are

01. Tampa Bay - David Price
02. Kansas City - Rick Porcello
03. Chicago Cubs - Josh Vitters
04. Pittsburgh - Jason Heyward
05. Baltimore - Ross Detwiler
06. Washington - Philippe Aumont
07. Milwaukee - Matt Harvey
08. Colorado - Daniel Moskos
09. Arizona - Madison Bumgarner
10. San Francisco - Mike Moustakas
11. Seattle  - Andrew Brackman
12. Florida - Jarrod Parker
13. Cleveland - Blake Beavan
14. Atlanta - Michael Main
15. Cincinnati - Matt Wieters
16. Toronto - Beau Mills
17. Texas - Julio Borbon
18. St Louis - Matt Dominguez
19. Philadelphia - Devin Mesoraco
20. Los Angeles Dodgers - Michael Burgess
21. Toronto - Pete Kozma
22. San Francisco - Josh Smoker
23. San Diego - Nick Schmidt
24. Texas - Jack McGeary
25. Chicago White Sox - Kevin Ahrens
26. Oakland - James Simmons
27. Detroit - Kyle Russell
28. Minnesota - Corey Brown
29. San Francisco - Brett Cecil
30. New York Yankees - Casey Weathers