Happy Monday. Having seen snow for the first time this winter, I think I’ve already seen enough. Inside and warmed up, let’s crank out a piece on one of the most under the radar high draft picks I can remember, one Andrew Carpenter. The Phillies selected the RHP in the second round, #65 overall, in the 2006 draft out of Long Beach State. Carpenter had one season left of eligibility after transferring in to LBSU for his junior year, but chose to sign with the Phillies for $570,000. Like many of my fellow draft/minor league junkies, this pick caught us a little off guard, as all of the drama was surrounding our selection at #18, and then taking Adrian Cardenas in the sandwich round, who was projected to go a few rounds later. At this pick, I really had no clue who the Phillies would take, though I feared they’d begin taking the toolsy outfielders like Jared Mitchell, who was rumored to be on the Phillies wishlist in the compensation round. The selection of Carpenter, a college pitcher, seemed to go against the Phillies general philosophy of taking raw, projectable high school arms, and to be honest, I didn’t know a great deal about him. Couple all of that together, and I was a bit disappointed in the pick at first, based on my own lack of knowledge on Carpenter, if nothing else.
Carpenter signed a few weeks later, but he didn’t report to any of the our minor league teams immediately, and he showed up on the GCL Phillies roster online first, which was a surprise. Most college pitchers skip right over the GCL level and head to the short season league, in the Phillies case, the New York-Penn League. Carpenter was the Saturday starter for LBSU and threw a ton of innings (117.2), but he wasn’t used in relief, which helped save some wear and tear on his arm. Nevertheless, he was shut down for quite a while after being drafted, which isn’t too uncommon, especially for the Phillies. He made two appearances with the GCL Phillies, pitching only 3 innings , giving up 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks and striking out 4. He was shuttled off to Batavia, where he got a little more work in, starting 3 games, pitching 11 innings, allowing 1 run, 10 hits, 5 walks, and striking out 12.
It’s obviously tough to figure out anything by looking at his brief 15 innings of work, but he did strike out 16 in 14 innings, he allowed fewer hits than innings, and walked only 5 in 15 innings. I guess that’s not bad, but the sample is so small, it’s tough to figure out what “bad” might have been. Most importantly, the Phillies handled him carefully because of the college workload, and he didn’t appear to pick up any knocks, so he should be ready to go in 2007. At this point, I have him projected to start at Clearwater, but I really am not confident in that guess. The Lakewood rotation looks to be quite crowded, with Drabek, Garcia, Pfinsgraff, Brauer, Concepcion, and Dubee all likely candidates, as well as Andrew Cruse and possibly Walter Tejeda. Considering Carpenter’s polish, it makes sense that they’d skip him to Clearwater over any of those other names, age and experience considered.
Now, to what Carpenter actually throws. He features a low 90’s fastball that he locates well, as well as a hard slider and a split finger fastball, both of which grade out to be slightly above average pitches. He also used a curveball in college and a changeup at times, but both are average offerings, and he’ll probably scrap his curveball going forward and focus on just the slider. His changeup will probably need the most work, but his splitter will help neutralize LH batters. The Phillies considered him a “safe” pick on one hand, because he lacks true dominant stuff that would project him to be a front of the rotation starter, but because of his durability, his solid pitching aptitude, and his array of pitches, he might be a bit better than an innings-eater at the back of the rotation. He doesn’t have the electric fastball/curveball combination of Kyle Drabek, but he does have more experience, a better understanding for pitching (at this point), and much more polish, which makes him a safer bet going forward, just not the #1 starter potential of Drabek.
Carpenter is an interesting guy to watch, because really, he has been under the radar. If his combination of stuff and approach to the game translate well, he could become a good #2/#3 starter at some point down the road. He’s probably going to get a full season at High A this year, start at AA next year, and then possibly make a case for ML action in 2009, maybe even near the end of 2008, depending on how things go. His worst case right now is as a power reliever, his best case is the aforementioned #2/#3 starter.
Let’s see if that works. If not (I think it messed up the formatting earlier) I’ll just post the URL link. He shows his fastball, reaching 96, as well as his splitter.
No new content today, fresh off a brilliant win by the Gunners, I’m buzzing and have quite a bit of stuff I’d like to get done today, but I’ll be back strong tomorrow. I wanted to just say thank you to those who continue to come back and read, those who email with questions and comments, and those who participate in the discussions here in the comments section. Less than a month ago, I had an idea for a blog, I didn’t know if I’d stick with it or if anyone would be interested, but now, 4 weeks and 10,000 hits later, I guess I’ve seen enough support to keep on keepin’ on. This has been good fun, and as we get closer to April, we’ll have even more to discuss.
You’ll notice a new page at the top called “questions/topics?” which has replaced the “opening statement” page. If you have ideas, or comments on the layout of the site, or anything else at all, share it there, or send an email, whichever you prefer. I’m constantly tinkering with the layout here, whether it be the fast navigation links on the left side, or possible additions to the right bar. Once the minor league season starts, the number of “feature pieces” will likely be reduced in favor of game recaps, game previews, prospect updates, etc etc, but I’ll still write some prose on certain topics. The roster pages for each level, which you can find on the left side of the main page, will be updated every few days (or when changes are made), and I’m also preparing a standings page of some sort.
Again, I want to thank you for the support and for continuing to come back. Tell your friends, if you think they’d care, and please keep checking back, especially once the season starts. I’ve got some other ideas, but most importantly, I want to continue writing about what people are interested in. Without interest from you, I’d have stopped after two entries. So again, thank you, and have a nice rest of your weekend.
Welcome to the second installment of Make or Break 2007. Joining Tim Moss on my “on notice” list is 2003 draftee Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick, a seventh round pick in 2003, has four years of time in, and with the new CBA rules regarding the minors, Kendrick will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 2007 if he isn’t placed on the 40 man roster. A 6’3, 185 lb right hander from Washington, Kendrick has yet to really assert himself in his 4 seasons in the system, but his 2006 was a step in the right direction. Kendrick was a tremendous athlete in high school, playing baseball, basketball and football, and eventually turned down a scholarship to Washington State to begin his baseball career. The Phillies loved his long frame and live arm, and figured he’d learn the nuances of pitching as he progressed. Even more so, there was quite a bit made about his strong character and aptitude, and the Phillies felt he had the total package needed to be a successful pitcher.
Things didn’t start so well for Kyle. He struggled in 2003 after being drafted, posting a 5.46 ERA in 31 innings at the GCL Level. He split time at Batavia and Lakewood in 2004, and the results were worse, with a 5.48 ERA at Batavia in 70 innings, and a more painful 6.07 ERA at Lakewood in 66 innings. He gave up 179 hits and 51 walks, compared to only 89 K in 133 innings combined over the two levels. Kendrick saw time at three different levels in 2005
His progress at Batavia was somewhat encouraging, but his first taste of full season ball didn’t go the way he’d have liked. In 2006, the Phillies decided to start him at Lakewood and see what happened. In 46 innings, he posted a nice 2.15 ERA, allowing only 34 H and 18 BB, against 54 K’s. The Phillies bumped him up to Clearwater, and he performed surprisingly well, with a 3.53 ERA in 130 innings, allowing 117 H, 37 BB, and striking out 79. He finished the season in the AFL league, where he struggled a bit, albeit in only 10 innings. His 2006 represents a huge improvement to actually getting results on the field, and because 2006 was only his age 22 season, he’s still in the prospect territory. In my overall top 30, he’d be somewhere between 22-28, simply because I’m not sure what to expect from him going forward, the 2005 version or the 2006 version.
Kendrick is basically a three pitch pitcher, featuring a fastball that sits around 90-93 with good movement, an average changeup, and a slider. He originally threw a slow curveball, but the pitch was inconsistent and he wasn’t able to get many swings and misses, especially ahead in counts, so the Phillies had him scrap the curve late in 2005 and switch to the slider. If the 2006 results are an indication, it was a wise move to switch. The movement on his fastball enables him to get a lot of ground balls, as he had a 1.79 GB to FB ratio in 2006, and he had a solid 0.77 HR/9 rate in 2006. He was tougher on righties than lefties, but not by a margin that suggests he’d be better suited to relief at this point. He does still appear to lack the true qualities of a strikeout pitcher, which could spell some trouble going forward.
Kendrick seems like a lock to start the season in the Reading rotation, and it will represent a huge test for him. He initially struggled when promoted to full season ball, but in 2006 he handled the move from Low A to High A well, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the move to Reading. He’ll be playing in a tougher park for pitchers than he did at Clearwater, and a league that generally promotes a little more offense in the Eastern League than he was accustomed to in the Florida State League. With a strong season, he will almost assuredly find his way onto the 40 man roster come November, and he may get a spot either way, because the Phillies have invested a lot of time in him, and he has shown signs of improvement. However, if he is intent on making a big league contribution, not just the 40 man roster, he’s going to need to step up in 2007 and prove what he can do at Reading.
If you’ve been following the Phillies big league club this season, you’ve heard Fabio Castro’s name mentioned quite a bit, and you’ve probably heard various stories about his role in 2007. I don’t think anyone really knows at this point where he’s going, with some reports saying the starting rotation at AA or AAA, and some saying he’s going to end up in the Phillies bullpen. For those who didn’t know, Castro was acquired by the Phillies last season for Dan Haigwood, who was part of the Jim Thome deal. But because Castro was acquired in the Rule 5 draft from Chicago (by Kansas City, then traded to Texas), he had to remain on the Phillies 25 man roster all season. At times, we debated putting Fabio’s picture on a milk carton last season, because he pitched very infrequently, mainly because the Phillies felt he wasn’t ready to pitch in the big leagues with any kind of consistency.
Castro was originally signed by the Chicago White Sox out of the Dominican Republic as a free agent in 2001, at the tender age of 16. He didn’t make his US debut until 2003 in the Appalachian League. In 123 minor league games, over the span of 213 innings, Castro put up a quality 2.41 ERA, allowing only 160 hits, with 95 walks and 218 K’s, and allowed only 11 home runs. He obviously has the talent, but because he was so young and raw, he didn’t move quickly through the minors, and Chicago just ran out of space in their system. The Royals took him and then immediately traded him to Texas for Esteban German. He was traded to the Phillies on June 29th, and from there, began his participation in the baseball version of the Witness Protection Program. Castro pitched very infrequently, mainly in blowout games, and normally only 1 inning at a time. He ended up logging 23 innings for the Phillies, posting a 1.54 ERA, allowing 12 hits, 6 walks, 1 HR and striking out 13. The Phillies successfully kept him on the 25 man roster all season, and he is now Phillies property, on their 40 man roster.
But, even though we know all of that, we still don’t know where he’s going in 2007. While he showed he can pitch at the big league level, he was kept out of most high leverage situations, and the one memory Phillies fans probably have of him is the grand slam he allowed late in the season. The early talk involved putting him the starting rotation at either Reading or Scranton. This idea has merit, because Castro’s stuff, while good, could use improvement, especially his slider, which is an average at best pitch. Developing his slider pitching every few days for an inning might be tough, and the Phillies think he has a good enough arm to be a starter at some point. Since starters have more value than relievers, if he has the capability, it might not be a bad avenue to explore. With the Phillies having six starters now, and three other guys with more seasoning (Happ, Segovia and Germano) lined up to fill in, Fabio could stay in the minors this season and get 150 or 160 innings in as a starter to really fine tune his stuff.
On the other hand, if he experiences similar success in 2007 as he did in 2006, he could provide a solid arm in the Phillies pen. With teams eager to shell out 4 million, sometimes more, for setup guys, having Castro, who makes the league minimum, could prove to be a very profitable decision, based on production to cost. The danger here, of course is that he will be underused in relief, his pitches will lose their sharpness, and his development as a pitcher will be stunted. It’s not an easy decision, and it’s one that will probably be made in Spring Training. As of now, Castro would be competing with the likes of Bisenius, Warden, Simon, and others. Warden and Simon are both Rule 5 picks this year, which means they probably have a leg up, since Castro has options left and those guys must be kept on the 25 man roster.
Looking at Fabio’s stuff, it’s clear why Gillick wanted him, and maybe sacrificed the roster spot to keep him. Only 5’8, 160 lbs, Castro still has a big fastball, sitting at 91-92 and hitting 94 on occasion. He located his fastball reasonably well in the games he pitched for the Phillies, but he could probably use a little work on commanding it consistently to different quadrants of the strike zone. His changeup is a beauty, featuring late fade and break, giving him an equalizer against RH batters. His slider, as I mentioned above, is fringy now, showing inconsistent break and tilt, but will come around as he uses it more. In 2006, he dominated left handed batters, holding them to a 0.74/.188/0.74 line, allowing only 2 hits and 4 walks against the 32 batters he faced. He was tough on righties too, holding them to a .202/.297/.304 line, allowing 16 H and 9 BB against the 92 batters he faced.
Gillick, since taking over, hasn’t been afraid to challenge younger players, whether it be with aggressive promotions in the minors or throwing guys like Matt Smith into major league roles. With Castro, he really has a tough decision to make. 2007 will be his age 22 season, so he is still really young, age wise, but has already been in pro ball since 2003, so this will be his fifth professional season. If he can master his breaking ball and turn it into a third average/above average pitch, he could profile as a #4 starter going forward. If he is thrown into the ML bullpen now, he has the potential to be a solid 7th inning reliever. The people who get paid money to make these decisions obviously have a tough one to make.
If the Phillies don’t acquire another reliever, then I think Castro has a good chance to make the bullpen out of ST if he performs well. If they trade Jon Lieber for a reliever, which I still think they will, then Castro will probably start the year in the AA rotation. While this might seem like a “step back” for him, I think this might actually benefit him in the long run, and pay larger dividends to the Phillies in the long run. He’s only 22, he has a great arm, it would be a shame to see him only used in middle relief if he were capable of more. We’ll probably know more in 6 weeks, and we can revisit it then. What we do know is, Fabio has a bright future, regardless of the role he’s playing.
I’ve gotten a lot of interest in Mike Costanzo, whether it be emails, comments, or just how people are finding this site, so I felt I needed to give him some face time. I think he’s a year away from me having to call this his “make or break season”, so we won’t lump him in there just yet. First, some background. I’m sure that most people who follow the minor leagues at all know that Costanzo is a local product, coming from the Springfield area, and was the Phillies first pick in the 2005 draft, which because of the Jon Lieber signing in 2004, didn’t come until the second round. He played third base for three seasons at Coastal Carolina, and being selected by the Phillies, was a feel good homecoming story, much to the delight of the media, who get paid to write such feel good stories.
Third base inside the Phillies organization, from the top down, has been somewhat of a black hole since the departure of one Scott Rolen. The Phillies thought they might have struck gold with Welinson Baez, a free agent signed out of the Dominican Republic, but his 2006 looked nothing like his 2005, and he has to be thought of as a question mark at best going forward. Other than Baez, there really wasn’t much to brag about in the organization at the hot corner, so the drafting of Costanzo looked like a good idea. Consider his batting line at Coastal Carolina in his sophomore and junior years
Also, he posted a 2.13 ERA in 55 innings pitched, with 69 K to only 24 walks.
Costanzo looked intriguing as a possible reliever as well, but the Phillies were convinced that he was better suited to third base, a position the organization lacked depth in, and that he could possibly be the answer to our third problems at the major league level in a few years. Upon being drafted, like most college guys, he was sent to Batavia. His line was respectable, not great, but not bad for having played a full season of college ball then going to pro ball:
.274/.356/.473, 11 HR, 50 RBI
The Phillies double jumped him, choosing to send him to Clearwater to start 2006. For young 19 year old players, the double jump is often a really big test. For college guys, however, skipping Low A should not be as big an issue, as they played against more advanced competition in college (most of them anyway) and should be able to adapt in a more timely fashion. Costanzo didn’t enjoy that type of success, as he started off the first two months of the season in rough form
April: .240/.302/.396
May: .233/.319/.340
At this point, many of us who follow the minors closely started to groan and already write off the mighty Costanzo. However, he responded over the next three months, showing gradual improvement
June: .247/.352/.344
July: .234/.359/.421
That may not look like improvement, but his plate discipline began to return, as he drew 34 walks in June in July compared to the combined 16 he drew in April and May. He also drastically cut down on his strikeouts, K’ing only 46 times in June and July compared to 63 times in April and May. Then, August came…
August: .327/.465/.525
Wow, talk about pulling a 180. Obviously he saw his numbers improve drastically, aided by his .387 BABIP, but also another really positive indicator surfaced. From April through July, he was hitting more balls on the ground than in the air. For a power hitter, that’s probably not a good thing. Check out his progression
Costanzo, in college, was a power hitter. Since turning pro, however, the power just hasn’t been there, either in the form of consistent home run power or even good doubles power. His .473 slugging % at Batavia was okay, but against tired high school and college arms, he probably should have been around .525 or so, especially considering his college performance. In August, it seemed like he really turned it on, but we don’t know if he “figured it out” or just caught lightning in a bottle, because the season ended. At this point, he is still struggling against LHP, putting up a miserable .191/.308/.388 line against southpaws in 110 AB’s, compared to .277/.371/.442 in 394 AB against RHP.
Defensively, he was well thought of coming out of college, but struggled at Batavia in 2005, committing 21 errors in 69 games. In 2006, he “improved” by committing only 25 errors in 135 games. Obviously he is going to need to sharpen his game. Looking at his small sample pitching-wise, arm strength doesn’t seem to be the problem, and it is more than likely going to be his range and instincts that limit him defensively. Because the organization is so weak at 3B, he is going to be given every chance to improve and succeed there. It’s tough to measure defense at the major league level, let alone measure defense in the New York Penn League or the Florida State League, so let’s not put too much weight on his defense just yet. The Phillies haven’t talked of moving him off third yet (that I know of), so he’ll be there for the foreseeable future.
So then, 2007. Mike will open the season, his age 23 season, as the starting 3B at Reading. At 23, he needs to be in AA, and he needs to put up a season in the .820-.860 OPS range to remain a prospect worth watching. It’s certainly not unrealistic to expect a .280/.370/.470 season from him at Reading. Parkwise, Reading plays fairly well for hitters:
Costanzo, if he gets close to 500 AB, should hit 23-25 HR, especially if he can maintain his fly ball tendencies that he “discovered” in August. What Reading takes away in doubles it appears to more than add in home runs. If Mike steps up this season and has a big year, he could be pushing for playing time in Philly in 2008 at some point, but should be primed for time in 2009. Of course, that’s a long way away, and he needs to avoid starting the season with two sub .700 OPS numbers like he did in 2006. The Reading team should be fun to watch, with the pitchers climbing the ladder and Costanzo manning the hot corner. I had him ranked in my 11-15 range a few weeks ago, but if he puts up the type of season I described above, he’ll be pushing for a spot in the top 5 or 6 at this time next year. Time will tell.
Just something I was thinking about earlier, with a commenter asking about Gillick’s drafting philosophy, and a question of being more prepared than previous regimes. I did some quick checking, and I thought this was interesting. Check out the first round picks (or second, if the team didn’t have a first) of the NL East teams from 1997-2004, and where those players currently are. An “*” means the guy was a second round pick, but that team’s first player taken
ATL
1997: Troy Cameron, SS – Out of baseball
1998: Matt Belisle, RHP* – Cincinatti
1999: Matt Butler, RHP* – Out of baseball
2000: Adam Wainwright, RHP – St Louis
2001: McCay McBride, LHP – Braves
2002: Jeff Francouer, OF – Braves
2003: Luis Atilano, INF – Washington
2004: Eric Campbell, 3B* – Braves
Only 3/8 still in the organization
FLA
1997: Aaron Akin, RHP – Out of baseball
1998: Chip Ambres, OF – Kansas City
1999: Josh Beckett, RHP – Boston
2000: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B – San Diego
2001: Garrett Berger, RHP* – Out of baseball
2002: Jeremy Hermida, OF – Florida
2003: Jeff Allison, RHP – Florida
2004: Taylor Tankersley, LHP – Florida
Only 3/8 still in the org, though Beckett would be 4 if he weren’t dumped in the purge last year
NYM:
1997: Geoff Getz, LHP – Can Am League
1998: Jason Tyner, OF – Minnesota
1999: Neil Musser, LHP* – Kansas City
2000: Billy Traber, LHP – Washington
2001: Aaron Heilman, RHP – New York
2002: Scott Kazmir, LHP – Tampa Bay
2003: Lastings Milledge, OF – New York (for now)
2004: Phillip Humber, RHP – New York
Only 3/8, and with Milledge likely to get traded, it will only be 2/8
WAS/MON:
1997: Donnie Bridges, RHP – Independent League
1998: Josh McKinley, SS – Out of baseball
1999: Josh Girdley, LHP – Out of baseball
2000: Justin Wayne, RHP – Out of baseball
2001: Josh Karp, RHP – Washington
2002: Clint Evarts, RHP – Washington
2003: Chad Cordero, RHP – Washington
2004: Bill Bray, LHP – Cincinatti
Only 3/8 still with the org.
PHI:
1997: JD Drew, OF – Did Not Sign
1998: Pat Burrell, 1B – Phillies
1999: Brett Myers, RHP – Phillies
2000: Chase Utley, 2B – Phillies
2001: Gavin Floyd, RHP – Chicago
2002: Cole Hamels, LHP – Phillies
2003: Tim Moss, 2B* – Phillies
2004: Greg Golson, OF – Phillies
6/8 in the org, 6/7 if you don’t count Drew.
When you glance at that, it sure looks like we had the best run of first round picks, huh? What makes some of those drafts painful, however, is that after getting past the second round, we’d find one decent player in 15 rounds. 2005 looks like it might have been a solid draft class overall, but the years prior weren’t much to brag about. With Pat Gillick in charge, I’m still not really sure what his plan is. He seemed to really take a chance with Drabek, but it’s a chance worth taking, at #18, and he seemed to have a fairly good idea on signability of the lower guys, getting premium high schoolers like Myers, Brown, and Warren. I’m planning to look at Gillick’s drafting history in Baltimore in Seattle, but that’s for another time.
EDIT, the * next to Golson was supposed to be an “F” to complete OF, but I typed it incorrectly as I was in a hurry. Thanks to the commenter for the catch.
As reported here, the Phillies claimed 28 year old Greg Dobbs off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. Dobbs, drafted in 2001, was apparently a 6 year minor league free agent, and the Phillies added him, probably with hopes of filling out the Ottawa roster, but possibly to catch lightning in a bottle, ala Chris Coste in 2006. Dobbs has real good numbers, but it was probably more of a numbers game, with Adrian Beltre not going anywhere in Seattle, and a surplus of infielders already on their roster. His cumulative minor league line over the last three seasons is respectable:
1,037 AB, .307/.353/.439, 51 2B, 25 HR, 28/42 in SB
That line comes mostly at AA and AAA. But, we have a few problems
* He doesn’t draw many walks. Only 57 walks in close to 1,100 PA’s over 3 seasons
* He doesn’t have a lot of power for a corner infielder
* He’s been real old for his level
He’s also spent parts of the last three seasons in the majors, albeit for brief stays
Obviously, 2006 was a major outlier, and the sample size is very small.
So, what does this mean? Dobbs has a career OPS of .816 in the minors over 6 seasons, in just over 1,700 AB’s. He played 99 games at 3B in the minors in 2006, and in 2005 he played some at first and third, as well as DH’ing at the big league level. I can’t really see where he fits in at the big league level, unless the team plans to carry him over Coste. He doesn’t have drastic platoon splits, so I don’t see anything there, and Coste still has an advantage over him in being able to catch, if we’re considering the 25th man on the roster. Right now, the Phillies depth chart looks like this
So, I suppose it’s between Dobbs and Coste for the last infield spot, unless the team decides to only carry 11 pitchers, which seems unlikely with two Rule 5 pitchers in Warden and Simon, or they decide to go with only 4 OF, which again seems unlikely given the concern for Pat Burrell’s foot. Then again, if Dobbs is going to sign a minor league deal and go to Ottawa to serve as filler/a callup in the event of an injury, this isn’t a bad move. I guess I just don’t know enough about it to determine what to make of it.
In June, if you’d have told me that I’d be writing a piece gushing praise towards D’Arby Myers and proclaiming him “the next big thing”, I’d have laughed you right out of the room. As I expressed in previous entries here, I am ALWAYS skeptical of guys the Phillies draft as “athletes who need to learn to play baseball”, and at first blush, that’s exactly what D’Arby Myers seemed to me. Now, here I am, 7 months later, getting ready to write what will probably look like the biggest puff piece I’ve ever written. It’s funny how one guy can make you forget about years and years of mistakes, even if that suspended cynicism could rear it’s ugly head at some point down the road. But, as I clarified before, we’re all just projecting and guessing, so why not hold out a little hope for now?
For those who don’t know him, Myers was drafted out of high school in the 4th round and signed three weeks after the draft. He certainly fit the mold the Phillies look for in high school athletes, he’s already 6’3, 175 lbs, wiry strong, and looks like the perfect projection guy to add 30 pounds and an inch or two and turn into a physical specimen. He’s a superior athlete, having played baseball, football, basketball and even hockey in high school, but he ended up always coming back to baseball. Myers was recruited and signed a letter of intent to USC, based partly on his really strong academic background (4.0 GPA) and his good high school performance, where he hit over .460 in both his junior and senior years. Because of his academic prowess as well as his baseball abilities, the scholarship to Southern California was seen as an obstacle by many teams, and he slid to the 4th round. In what would become a trend in the Phillies 2006 draft, they took a shot, and surprisingly, got Myers signed in only 3 weeks, which has to be seen as somewhat of a coup.
Before we go on about Myers and everything he offers, we need to address why I called him “the Phillies winning lottery ticket” in the title of this article. Guys like Myers, that is, the raw high school athlete, fail much more in pro ball than they succeed. Every year, every team drafts a bunch of guys like Myers, guys they think COULD become the next big thing, but the reality is, many of them don’t, simply because playing the game of baseball, and more specifically, teaching the nuances of the game of baseball, is not an easy task, and in most cases, just being a good athlete isn’t enough. In the Phillies case, their record of drafting guys like Myers is simply awful. Reggie Taylor and Greg Golson immediately come to mind, but there have been others (Shomari Beverley in 1997….who? Exactly) and in general, the Phillies just haven’t had any luck developing high school hitters. In fact, since the 1996 draft, the only high school hitter I can even think of that the Phillies have really succeeded with is Jimmy Rollins. One success in 10 years is hardly a solid track record. But, with Adrian Cardenas and D’Arby Myers, the Phillies might be onto something…..or they may have just gotten lucky, hence the “lottery ticket” analogy.
Just one more point on this, then I swear I’m going to start talking directly about Myers. Most teams draft guys like Myers and they never pan out, it’s not unique to the Phillies, but I know I’m not alone in wondering why it seems these guys show up in the GCL and seemingly can’t hit at all. Or, why we hear in the media that Greg Golson, with 2.5 years of pro ball experience, still has an “aluminum bat swing”, which to me, seems inexcusable. Some teams live and die by their farm system because they have to, teams like Minnesota and Oakland, but could it also be that these teams just have better teachers and instructors? Is it really a surprise that Minnesota churns out so much quality pitching? Many of the guys they bring up were not heralded as super stud prospects when they were drafted, but it seems like the teachers in the lower levels of the Minnesota system bring out the best in these prospects…..can we say the same about the Phillies? I’m not sure we can. That’s why a guy like Myers is so surprising to me, but at the same time, gives me hope that the Phillies might just be getting it.
Anyway, back to D’Arby. The fact that he signed so quickly was a surprise, but it also helped him, as it gave him more time to get adjusted to life in pro ball. Having not turned 18 until December, Myers played the entire GCL season at age 17, making him one of the youngest players in the league. So, we have a really young, really raw guy playing pro ball the summer after his senior year in high school….we shouldn’t expect too much, right? Well, most didn’t, and that’s why we’re so surprised. Myers final line was impressive
.313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 SB
The only area you could be somewhat concerned with is his 32 K’s in 128 AB’s, but all things considered, this is almost a zero worry type deal. What’s more impressive, though are his splits
June: .154/.267/.154 in 13 AB
July: .344/.382/.484 in 64 AB
August: .364/.364/.500 in 44 AB
He actually seemed to get stronger as the season was winding down. Maybe the most promising split is his ground ball to fly ball ratio. He had 49 GB to only 25 FB. He knows his strength, at this point, is to utilize his speed, and the best way to do that is to hit the ball on the ground.
The bigger issue, though, when looking at his numbers is his age….17. After the 2005 season, Yankees prospect Jose Tabata was considered one of the 50 or so best prospects in baseball, based on his GCL performance and his age, also 17 years old. In 2006, in low A, Tabata put up a .298/.377/.420 line, and was ranked the Yankees second best prospect, and will probably get some consideration for the Top 25 prospects in baseball lists. Here is a quick comparison of their respective numbers for their GCL seasons, both coming at age 17
Tabata: .314/.382/.417, 9 XBH, 25 RBI, 22/28 in SB in 156 AB
Myers: .313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 in SB in 128 AB
Pretty similar, yes? But there is one big different. Tabata is 5’10, 165 lbs, while Myers is 6’3, 175 lbs. What’s the difference? As Tabata gets older, he’s unlikely to grow more than a few more inches. Many scouts see his speed diminishing slightly as he fills out his frame and adds weight. He may develop more power, but Myers is a better bet to retain his speed, and because of it, has a better chance to remain a CF, while Tabata will likely be relegated to RF, because he does have a strong arm, but will lack the speed for CF. Tabata also has a slight edge in his plate discipline, drawing 15 walks to only 14 K’s his rookie year, while Myers drew only 7 walks to 32 strikeouts. Again, though, Myers is still learning the nuances like controlling the strike-zone, whereas Tabata was already an advanced hitter prior to coming to the GCL.
So, in the short term and in the long run, what are we looking at? We could be looking at the makings of a super star, or we could be looking at the next Reggie Taylor. Lets look at Myers’ numbers compared to Reggie Taylor and Greg Golson, the two suspects mentioned earlier.
Myers, age 17 (GCL): .313/.353/.430, 10 XBH, 13 RBI, 11/15 in SB in 128 AB
Taylor, age 18 (SS): .222/.301/.314, 12 XBH, 32 RBI, 18/25 in SB in 239 AB
Golson, age 18 (GCL): .295/.345/.410, 14 XBH, 22 RBI, 12/14 in SB in 183 AB
Now, lets look at the second year for both Taylor and Golson
Taylor, age 19 (A-): .263/.305/.327, 26 XBH, 31 RBI, 36/53 in SB in 499 AB
Golson, age 19 (A-): .264/.322/.389, 31 XBH, 27 RBI, 25/34 in SB in 375 AB
At this point in time, it looks like the Phillies could challenge Myers to a full season at Lakewood. The original plans were probably to keep him in short season ball in 2007 to help him get acclimated to pro ball, but with his outstanding showing in the GCL, the temptation to move him up and skip Williamsport is no doubt strong, and based on his baseball aptitude, might not be a bad move. Back in the summer, I advocated that he should probably start at Williamsport and then get bumped to Lakewood for the last month or so, but knowing what I know now, looking at the situation more closely, challenging him to a full season might just be the right idea. If he can put up a .375 OB% at Lakewood and increase his walk rate a bit, 2007 will be a major success, not even considering other parts of his game. In the next 2-3 years, his power should increase as he adds muscle and fills out, so that part of his game will come. The most important aspect for his future success is learning the strike zone and how to approach each at bat. If he can learn those skills, he’ll remain on the fast track.
Long term for D’Arby? Well, as cliche as it sounds, the sky is the limit. He has above average speed, an above average bat, plays a decent CF at such an early stage, and shows signs that he could hit for power. He basically has everything you look for in a star player. But of course, the warning has to be attached to this. He may not develop at all, and he may turn into the next Reggie Taylor. Every prospect has that chance, and Myers, as promising as he was in 2006, has the same possibility of failure as anyone else. It’s going to be exciting watching him develop, and at this time next year, everyone might be gushing over “the Great D’Arby Myers”…we can only hope.
This is a post I’ve been meaning to write for a little while now, and since I’m home for the holiday today, now seemed like a good time. When the Phillies selected Drabek 18th overall in the June draft, nearly everyone had an opinion right away. As many people know, Drabek had very detailed, and what some might say “extensive” off the field issues leading up to him being drafted. Having never seen any police reports, I have no real way to know what exactly happened or how. It’s easy to write something off as a kid “just being stupid”, but in many cases (the Cole Hamels bar fight comes to mind), there are always two sides, and sometimes many more. What we can determine, though, is pretty simple: Kyle Drabek is not your typical teenager.
As has been well publicized, Drabek is the son of former Cy Young award winner Doug Drabek. Kyle certainly isn’t the first son of a big leaguer to get drafted, but few have had the media attention surrounding them like Kyle has gone through. You normally always hear the stories about the kids who grew up in poor families, who could barely afford a glove, and who just got to where they were because someone took a chance on them…..that’s not Kyle. Having grown up the son of a Major League pitcher (and a decent one at that), he was given more opportunities, and even more importantly, had his own personal pitching coach from a young age. What sometimes gets lost, however, is that people like Kyle experience things somewhat differently than your common teenager. While I was playing with my Tonka toys out in the sand box, Kyle got to go into Major League clubhouses. When I played catch with my dad, we were just playing catch. When Kyle played catch with his dad, he was learning how to throw a spike curve and develop arm side run on his fastball. While I was really happy to be able to get a car as nice as my old Subaru when I turned 16, Kyle probably expected nothing less than the Escalade he ended up damaging in a 1 car accident.
I think what I’m trying to say there is, it’s not Kyle’s fault that he was born into the lifestyle he was. It’s not like he had control over the fact that his father was a successful major league pitcher and he could grow up in a privileged household and enjoy the benefits of a privileged lifestyle. I’ve seen people comment that this is somehow a reflection of him, and this is a flaw in his character. I tend to think the opposite, that it’s just something he’s been dealt, and at some point, he’s either going to learn from his mistakes, or he’s going to end up a zero in life all together, not just baseball-wise. The temper, the throwing bats, the punching walls, we’ve all heard those stories, but let’s be honest, he’s a teenager. This writer is only 25, and not too long ago, I can remember slamming my driver into the ground when I’d hook a drive off the 4th tee in an important high school golf match (cue chuckling), or cursing myself out during practice. Hell, I may have even kicked my golf bag a time or two. In my mind, I was just really competitive. When it came time to put the chips on the table, I was always able to get the better of my emotions. When you look at Kyle’s track record, he seems to have done the same.
In fact, before we dig into Kyle’s numbers and figure out where he’s headed, I think it’s important to take note of one thing. Some of the greatest players in recent baseball memory are noted for their fiery, sometimes over the top behavior. Remember when Roger Clemens fired the broken bat piece at Mike Piazza? Clemens wasn’t vilified, we had to hear how “he’s just such a fiery competitor”…..ok. Randy Johnson? He never met a guy (teammate or not) he didn’t like to yell at. There is the other side. There are guys like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine who show little emotion. But the point is, it works on both sides. As a fan, I don’t really like guys who accept losing, or who don’t seem phased by losing. Now, there is a limit to what you can do, and I’m not advocating that Drabek berate every umpire he sees from now till 2015, or that he kick a water cooler once a week, but he is 18, he is still a kid, and he is a “fiery competitor”, so hey, let’s give him some time.
Now that I’ve waxed poetic, let’s get to the issue at hand. Most draft experts prior to the draft felt Drabek was a top 5 talent, but that he could slip, maybe even to the bottom of the first round, because of his off the field issues. A few days prior to the draft we learned that the Phillies had scouted him (many teams did), but unlike many, they had been doing extensive research on Drabek’s off the field issues. On draft day, it was still unsure just where he could go. He was being mentioned anywhere from the Dodgers at #7, to the Rangers at #12, to the Phillies at #18, all the way down to the Dodgers again at #26. LA took Clayton Kershaw, the best high school LHP in the draft, at #7, and the Rangers took Kasey Kiker, another high school LHP, at #12. That cleared the way for the Phillies, who went ahead and took the gamble. The reason this is called “Hero or Zero”, is because most feel Drabek will either become a star, or he’ll be out of baseball in 3 years, and most don’t see a lot of middle ground.
Based on stuff alone, his fastball/curveball combination was one of the best in the draft. He possesses a real quick arm and his mechanics are smooth. During his high school season, he regularly threw in the 93-95 range, dialing it up to 97 with some frequency. His curve is a true 12-6 spike curveball, normally in the 75-79 range. He also threw a slider, which sat more in the mid 80’s, and a rarely thrown (not needed) changeup. Here is the scouting video of Drabek, courtesy of mlb.com
Now, I’m not a pitching coach, or Sean Salisbury, but I’m going to attempt to break down the video here. If anyone else wants to add anything to my analysis of the video, please leave it in the comments. I’ll use the time on the video to make my comments
[0:00-0:17] Warm up tosses, nothing exciting
[0:18-0:22] This would be his curve ball. 76 mph, with tight downward motion.
[0:23-0:27] Four seam fastball, 94 mph, nice downward plane on the pitch.
[0:28-0:31] This looks to be his slider, 85 mph. Great late movement and tilt.
[0:32-0:35] Four seam fastball, 94 mph. Lots of movement, especially in the final 3rd of the way to the plate.
[0:36-0:39] Four seamer, this one not as much movement, but good late life.
[0:40-0:44] This looks like a 2 seam fastball, 90 mph, where he just takes a little off and gets more movement.
Rest of the video shows him from the side, not much to add there, except that he looks in control of all of his movements and doesn’t seem to waste any effort or have any extraneous movements/hitches that could cause mechanical problems.
Now that you know his story, now that you’ve seen him throw a few pitches and have a general idea of what he brings, it’s time to figure out what he’s going to become. That’s a trick statement, really, because it’s nearly impossible to figure out what ANY prospect will become, because they are just that, prospects, and we know that “prospect” basically means “could be in the future”. Drabek, based on his talent, COULD be a #1 pitcher some day, or, based on his previous off the field issues and temper, could be the next Chris Enochs. Who? Exactly. His arm is strong enough to carry him, but it’s going to come down to what’s in between the ears. I’m a believer, some aren’t, but time will tell. What I want to do is quickly look at some of the best pitching prospects/young pitchers in the game who were drafted out of high school and see how they progressed in their first full season. That will give us a benchmark and show us what Kyle needs to shoot for if he wants to put himself into the upper echelon of pitching prospects. Here is a short list I’ve compiled, along with their first season after being drafted
All of these pitchers above were ranked in the Top 80 overall prospects in baseball by Baseball America before the 2006 season started. All are still considered elite talent now, though in different respects. Billingsley, Olsen, Zumaya, Cain, and Lester all made it to the majors in 2006 and all of them will be in the majors in 2007. Bailey and Hughes are considered the two best RHP prospects in the minors, and Elbert is considered by many to be the best LHP prospect in the minors. So, I’d say we have a pretty good idea what it takes to be considered an elite prospect, and at this point, that’s what we’re hoping Drabek turns into over the next season, right? By all accounts, if Drabek has a good spring, and “good” basically means he doesn’t get into any trouble off the field, he doesn’t beat up a coach, and he doesn’t injure himself, he’ll be assigned to full season Lakewood. That seems to be the trend for those on the list above, as they were all assigned to low A in their first season after being drafted, with the exception of Billingsley, who was sent to high A to start his first full year.
Lakewood is a moderate pitcher’s park, based on the 3 year weighted park factors list compiled at Baseball Think Factory, suppressing runs (0.86, with 1.00 being “average”), and especially home runs, at only 0.51. When you look at the numbers for the elite high school pitchers above, you’ll notice that in almost every case (except Lester) strikeouts are prevalent, and home run suppression is at a premium. This tells you that these pitchers are generating swings and misses, and when batters do make contact, they aren’t hitting the ball very hard. The one area that you will see a great fluctuation is walks per 9. Control (not to be confused with command) can give you an idea how quickly a guy will move through the minors, but it’s not absolute. Homer Bailey really struggled with his control in 2005, but greatly improved in 2006 at High A, cutting his walk rate in half. Sometimes it’s a small adjustment here or there. However, a pitcher with superb control at a young age, like Philip Hughes, lends to much better projections and predictions down the road.
So what should we expect from Drabek? Well, I don’t really know. You can take his GCL numbers from the summer and basically toss them out the window. He threw a lot of innings in high school and signed a little later (July), so he probably wasn’t quite sharp when he reported, and he was probably dealing with a tired arm. His starts were either good or awful, and he wasn’t consistent. He reportedly was taking well to instruction during the Florida Instructional League, which is a good sign, and he should report to spring training with a fresh arm, ready to go. The Phillies would like to be aggressive in starting him in full season ball, but he will probably stay in Lakewood all season, unless he either flat out dominates or he completely bombs out….kind of back to this hero or zero theme again. If he puts up a 1.95 ERA in his first three months, he might see a promotion to Clearwater for July and August, and similarly, if he puts up a 9.65 ERA in his first three months, he might head to Williamsport for the final two months, but in all likelihood, he’ll be a fixture at Lakewood for the duration of 2007. The Phillies will more than likely be cautious with his pitch counts, and because of that, he might only pitch 120-135 innings this year. You can’t really fault them for it, it’s just the way the game has progressed (or regressed, depending how you feel), and because he’s only 19, it won’t hurt his development if he doesn’t log 160 innings this year.
The SAL league generally favors pitching slightly, so Drabek should have a chance to shine. Everyone will be watching, and he knows it. One bad season won’t break him, and it won’t make him a non-prospect, but it will increase the vitriol already being thrown in his direction. If his head is in the game, if he wants to be the best and wants to work for it, you might just see a special season from him. The last time the Phillies took a gamble on a pitcher who slid in the draft, they found themselves with Cole Hamels at #17 in 2002…..let’s hope in 5 years we say “the last time we gambled on a pitcher, we stole Kyle Drabek at #18 in 2006.” Good luck this year Kyle.
Here is the roster/depth chart for the Ottawa Lynx. Updated as of 3/31/07 per the Lynx website.
Starting Lineup
C – Jason Jaramillo
1B – Gary Burnham
2B – Carlos Leon
SS – Danny Sandoval
3B – Brennan King
LF – Ron Calloway
CF – Chris Roberson
RF – Jim Rushford
Bench
C – Chris Coste
INF – Brent Abernathy
OF – Lou Collier
OF – Pedro Swann
Starting Rotation
SP – Brian Mazone
SP – James Happ
SP – Eude Brito
SP – Fabio Castro
SP – Zach Segovia
Bullpen
CL – Joe Bisenius
RP – Jim Crowell
RP – Yoel Hernandez
RP – John Ennis
RP – Matt Childers
RP – Justin Miller
RP – Brian Sanches
RP – Kane Davis
RP – JD Durbin
RP – Clay Condrey
Phuture Phillies 