Quarter Point Mailbag

Mailbag, Other Stuff

A big thank you to everyone who sent in questions, there were some very thought provoking questions posed.  If you have anymore just ask them in the comments.

@Phylan

@Matt_Winkelman I have a question: what is a “prospect”

Not sure how serious this question is but it is a great place to start this.  In my mind a prospect is someone who has realistic chance to have a major league career.  This doesn’t mean they will be a starter but they have the ability to contribute on the major league level.  Just getting there does not make one a prospect.

@SchmolkieSays –

@Matt_Winkelman with the new defined rules of international spending, do you think the phillies will be bigger players in the int’l market?

Yes, they actually have been upping the spending on players over the last few years.  I doubt they will ever spend enough to incur penalties but they will spend close to the limit each year.  They have always had a large presence, especially with being on of the few teams to maintain both a Dominican and Venezuelan academy, they haven’t spent too much on circular players.  However, in the past two years they have spent big on some top players including Carlos Tocci, Franklyn Vargas, Deivi Grullon, Jose Pujols, and Lewis Alzones.  The Phillies international scouting is some of the best in the majors though.

Romus –

Matt…..do you think Biddle will get an AFL selection this fall? Or will the Phillies let his arm rest?

No he will get his full work in during the year.  Teams rarely send starters to the AFL if they have gotten a full year of innings because they can monitor them more closely in the Florida Instructional League.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Brody Colvin or Austin Wright was sent to Arizona to get some innings.

Andrew Cleveland Alexander –

I have a question to throw out, based on a look at the Top 5 in Baseball America’s system rankings:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-organizational-talent-rankings-list/

It’s fairly clear how Miami and Seattle ended up on this list: by being consistently bad on the major league level. The Rays obviously have a working strategy: they draft well, never give up picks, and trade guys like James Shields before they reach their top-earning years. My question, though, is about the other two teams on the list: the Cardinals and Rangers. Since 2008, the Cardinals have averaged 88 victories a season while the Rangers have averaged 89 victories a season. By comparison, the Phillies have averaged 93 victories a season. Given their relatively similar draft position, all three teams should be looking at a pretty similar pool of players. Yet the Cardinals’ and Rangers’ systems have thrived, while the Phillies’ has not.

Is this a function of the Phillies having traded so much talent in their deadline deals? Do these other teams employ a different strategy in terms of evaluating the draft (going for finished talent, for instance, rather than the raw athletes the Phillies favor)? Do they spend a lot more on the international market? I’m genuinely unsure, but it seems like a useful question to ask.

The lazy way is to say that they out spend the Phillies.  There is a lot more to the Rangers and Cardinals than just throwing money at player development.  The main driving factor behind the top ranking is the #1 and #2 prospects in the game in Profar and Taveras.  The Rangers started building a relationship with Profar when he was 14 and by the time he hit the market at age 16 they signed up to a large bonus, but also were one of the few teams that understood his desire to play shortstop rather than move to the mound.  Taveras was only signed for $150,000,  scouts were afraid that he wouldn’t make contact with his swing, and has turned out that he is made loud contact up the developmental process.

The Rangers have had a similar talent acquisition strategy to the Phillies, in that they acquire players with loud tools.  It is rare to find a top Rangers prospect that does not have at least a 70 tool.  The difference is that the Rangers have decided that they are willing to pay the premium in Latin America to acquire these players.  The Rangers don’t just throw their money around they have a ton of scouts on the ground building relationships and finding talent.  There is also a lot more patience with their prospects from fans, how would we be reacting to 2012 1st round pick Lewis Brinson and his 80 strikeouts in 202 PAs so far this season.

The Cardinals just don’t miss on picks.  Their Top 10 is littered with 1st round picks, the only guy they have missed on was Zach Cox.  But more than 1st round picks they find guys out of college that can fill a specific role.  They aren’t looking to hit homeruns but they get at least someone like Adam Morgan or Cody Asche out of every single draft class.  Their scouts and developmental staff are the best in the business.  This allows then to not have to spend on free agents so that they can retain their first round picks where they have acquired over the past five years; Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins, Kolton Wong, and Michael Wacha (as well as Zach Cox).

Anonymous VOR –

Question: Do minor league players automatically get a pay raise when added to the 40 man major league roster. If so, how much?

Yes, after some research and finding a bunch of different numbers out there it appears that during the first year on the 40 man roster a player’s salary increases to about $35,000, then to about $70,000 in their second year, and about $110,000 in their third year on the 40 man.  Any games in the major league guarantee a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum of $490,000.

allentown1 –

I am interested in current scouting projection for Larry Greene, Jr. He has yet to hit a HR this year and for such a big guy he has less than 1 XBH/10 AB while striking out more than 40% of his AB. He walks a ton, but when your calling card is power and you are being out-homered by tiny Quinn on your own team, something seems wrong. Why does a scouting projection of outstanding raw power so often not show up as in-game power? What exactly do the scouts look for to tag a guy with outstanding raw power as a tool?

The current scouting projection I have heard most recently is non-prospect.  He is bailing on his swings right now and is doing little more than flailing at it.  Essentially he is not using any of his body in his swing and the bat speed is also down as well.  He needs a major overhaul at the plate and now that it looks like he is destined for first base defensively it is going to take a lot to rejuvenate his prospect status.  There is still plenty of raw strength and he does have patience at plate so there is a base to build from, but it is going to be a lot of work.

There are a couple of disconnects between in-game and batting practice power.  The most obvious is the hit tool, you can’t hit for power if you aren’t getting the bat on the ball.  Another is a difference in swing between game and batting practice.  This can be due to a difference in the plane of the swing or an entirely different swing, which can because of the nature of the types of pitches being thrown or direction from management.  When you are marking a guy as having excellent raw power you are looking for how far they can hit a baseball and how hard the contact they are making.  This can be both in batting practice and in game.  But it really can come down to the development of the hit tool.

Buddy Biancalana –

Would the Phillies be wise to trade M Young for A Ethier? I know Ethier is another LH bat and he has many years and many $$$ remaining, but it seems like he could be a difference maker if he returned to form. The downside is by next season the lineup could have as many as 6 LH hitters in it – Ethier, Revere, Brown, Howard, Utley, and Asche.

Absolutely not, Ethier’s contract is absolutely horrendous given his declining skills and lack of defensive value.  He is a liability against left handed pitching and at best an average defender.  If the Dodgers payed most of his salary he could provide a decent platoon option with someone like Darin Ruf.

Anonymous –

Please rank the top 10 RH arms and top 5 LH arms in the Phils minor league system. Please also project 2015 line-up incl SPs , bullpen and bench. I don’t post often but love the site ! Thank you

When I started on this I thought it would be easy but I think I spent more time on this question than any other.  My rankings haven’t changed a lot since the season started but the right handed pitching is not as deep as I thought it might be.

RHP

  1. Ethan Martin
  2. Shane Watson
  3. Kenny Giles
  4. Mitch Gueller
  5. Seth Rosin
  6. Brody Colvin
  7. Perci Garner
  8. Lewis Alzones
  9. Kevin Brady
  10. Kyle Simon

LHP

  1. Jesse Biddle
  2. Adam Morgan
  3. Yoel Mecias
  4. Franklyn Vargas
  5. Hoby Milner

2015 Lineup:

  • Catcher – Joseph
  • First Base – Howard/Ruf
  • Second Base – Utley
  • Shortstop – Galvis
  • Third Base – Franco
  • Left Field – Brown
  • Center Field – Altherr
  • Right Field – Dugan
  • Bench: Revere, Rug/Howard, Hernandez, Rupp, Asche
  • Starting Pitchers: Lee, Hamels, Kendrick, Biddle, Morgan
  • Bullpen: Martin, Aumont, Giles, Diekman, DeFratus, Bastardo, Papelbone

The offense will need some work through trades and free agency, but that is actually a good pitching staff, with a bullpen that can bring it hard from both sides.

bugbear –

Hey Matt, thanks for doing this!
I’m curious about Cameron Perkins, since I haven’t read many scouting reports of him. He’s the same age as Kelly Dugan, but as a lower pick, there isn’t as much info out there about him. So I’m wondering…
1. I assume he’s playing LF because Clearwater has Franco at 3B and Dugan in RF, but does he still have the ability to play those spots, or was he also moved because he’s not able to field them well enough?
2. What’s his major league projection at this point? His statistics suggest a good hit tool and doubles power without walks or speed, which wouldn’t cut it as a starter in a corner unless he really is able to maintain his batting average.

Perkins can play all four corners (1B/3B/RF/LF), however he isn’t great at third with the arm being just average and doesn’t really profile as a defensive regular there.  He could likely play RF, but because the arm is average he profiles best defensively in LF.  He has struggled at times in the OF as he learns the position but there isn’t reason any reason to think he can’t be average there.

I have trouble seeing an average regular right now.  I am not overly worried about the lack of walks, especially with the low strikeout rate because he has been hitting the ball so well.  If he continues to hit he could be a second division regular in the OF.  I would say it is more likely that he is an above average bench bat that might have success being a platoon bat with defensive flexibility.  It does look like a major league profile though.

@AdamDvorin

@Matt_Winkelman Phuture Phils q: Who is Gabriel Lino playing for?

This was nicely answered immediately by Baseball Betsy down in Clearwater.

@AdamDvorin@Matt_Winkelman extended spring–he had a killer throw to 2nd to get a base stealer out today. 🙂

@mcardin15

@Matt_Winkelman why isn’t Walter in LKW? What is the plan with Tyler Greene?

Considering Walter’s lack of innings over the past few years I assume that they are limiting his innings in Spring Training before sending him to Williamsport.  He is only 21 so he isn’t too far behind developmentally.

I have no clue what is up with Greene except that unless he makes more contact he won’t be a prospect going forward.  He could play SS and backup middle infield in Williamsport.

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

82 thoughts on “Quarter Point Mailbag”

  1. why not pettibone in the rotation in ’15. and do you think garner could make it as a starter? And I hope revere doesnt end up as a bench player in ’15

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      1. Lewis Alezones is 16 years old. He may be in Xtended spring. He hasn’t pitched in the VSL.

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    2. – I think all 5 of those starters will be better than Pettibone, who is going to really struggle on his second time through the league.
      – I don’t think Garner will be a starter (and if he is it is more the #4 profile), but I want to see him in Reading before I close that door
      – I have always really liked Altherr which is why I made that call, but it was really close
      – I believe Brady and Josh Warner were demoted to Extended Spring Training to get some specialized mechanical adjustments
      – Alzones will be 17 this summer so he will be in the GCL on strict innings and pitch counts
      – Vargas should be going north to Williamsport

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  2. I’m not sure anyone would want to take Michael Young in a trade right now. I think advanced statistics would reveal him as one of the worst players in baseball right now. He has hit for a high average at times, but has shown no power, has hit into a ton of double plays, and plays below average defense. The guy was great in his prime, but he’s bad right now. Also, I’m surprised at Revere’s rawness. His main tool is speed, of course, and the only way for him to be a good player is to hit a lot, steal a lot, and play great defense. He doesn’t have the tools to be a great player, and if the hitting goes down or the defense, he’s not a major league regular. There’s still hope for him since he’s young, but I’d like a more complete player who can drive the ball a bit and throw better, and maybe Gillies can still do this and perhaps Altherr.

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    1. I couldn’t agree more – the 3 main acquisitions offensively this off season – the Brothers Young and Revere – have been brutal. Revere’s arm is so bad he is destined to be a LF and with his lack of power and plate discipline he doesn’t project as a LF at all. M Young just doesn’t hit the ball with authority often at all. D Young has looked mediocre at best. The pitching acquisitions haven’t been much better – Lannan and Adams on the DL and Durbin has been brutal at best.

      RAJ is terrible.

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      1. Can’t argue with your analysis of the players lack of talent, but you left out the money they make and what they are guaranteed into the future, which is nothing.

        Was that Ruben Amaro’s decision or David Montgomery’s?

        Did Ruben Amaro have the authority to sign Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher?

        Does Ruben Amaro have the authority to sign Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo this coming winter?

        Choo is represented by Scott Boras and history says that Amaro will never call Scott Boras and tell him the Phillies are interested in Choo. That’s not Amaro’s history, it’s David Montgomery’s history. Amaro is not allowed to call Scott Boras. The Phillies farm director is not allowed to draft a Scott Boras player. Those are David Montgomery’s rules.

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        1. While it was most likely true that Amaro had a limited budget this past off season he has no one to blame but himself. The Howard contract will go down as one of the worst in history. Jimmy’s while not super outrageous when in a vacuum, is when you can likely get the same production from a league minimun player. And while it is nice that Paps has been as good as we could have hoped for, wouldn’t you rather have a Josh Willingham playing every day? And while the pieces we gave up haven’t really been performing that well at the major league level, many of them are right up there almost ready to contribute. I wonder if Revere was even scouted or if Amaro just opened up the news paper and looked as a box school for the twins and said oh hey look this guy might work. In the past I have been wiling to give Amaro the benefit of the doubt, but when he signed Paps a week to early that just showed me that he is plain incompetent.

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          1. “And while it is nice that Paps has been as good as we could have hoped for, wouldn’t you rather have a Josh Willingham playing every day?”

            STRAW MAN argument. The Phillies have Dodgers dollars and their owners are crazy rich Willingham doesn’t even make much money, a very cheap contract. The Phillies could have traded for Willingham and signed Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher. The Phillies have that kind of money.

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    2. Revere has much more range than Brown, so why move Revere to a position where his range isn’t being taken advantage of?

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      1. No kidding. Revere has no more MLB talent than Michael Martinez….oh wait.

        But seriously, I have no problem with moving Brown to CF to make room for another LF bat like Darin Ruf. The only problem with that is Ruf isn’t hitting. As poor as Brown’s OBP is he’s the best outfield bat under the Phillies control unless Cameron Perkins is just warming up.

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  5. A small thing about your lineup: You have Franco in the Lineup. He is only in Clearwater. You have him jumping AAA, straight to the major leagues at age 22?

    Also: You are being more than generous with the thought that Altherr and Dugan will be starters in 2015. Even without any Free agent moves, I cannot see a scenario where Altherr is any more than a 4th/5th OF by 2015, and I can’t see Dugan making the team, let alone starting.

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    1. I think Franco makes it to Reading by the end of the year and splits 2014 between AA and AAA, either way I think he is that good.

      I started that portion with who would be the best at the position in the organization in 2015. There is nothing there to say is better besides putting Asche in LF or Revere being an impact player. Those will be free agent positions or some sort of breakout on the farm.

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    2. “I cannot see a scenario where Altherr is any more than a 4th/5th OF by 2015”

      When is the last time you watched the Phillies play baseball? Altherr and Cameron Perkins are both better hitters than Ben Revere is now or ever will be. David Montgomery has set the bar so low for position talent on the Phillies that Lucas Duda would be the best outfielder on the Phillies if they could acquire him from the Mets.

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      1. Free…always have one mention of David Montgomery in your posts. This obsession is truly amazing.

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  6. Where do you see our rotation down the line? Do you see Mitch Gueller and Shane Watson playing a big role? And what do you think Vargas’ potential is?

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    1. Gueller and Watson could play big roles, I really like Gueller’s profile though there is a lot to be done there. They are too far away to really think about though with Watson’s ETA probably 2016 and Gueller in 2017.

      Vargas’s potential is immense with a fastball that can flash plus plus for a lefty and the feel for a slider. He needs to find a changeup and some semblance of control. But if he puts it together he could rocket up prospect boards. He was the top International LHP in 2010 when the Phillies signed him for $330,000.

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      1. I’ve seen a lot about Gueller and it seems that if he can really develop his secondaries to go with his 70 FB he could be a frontline starter. I’m shaky on Watson, I know it’s early but he hasn’t been doing well in LK

        I really hope Vargas can put it all together. Hoping to see him in the GCL this summer. Thanks for responding and for all you do!

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        1. I want to see reports on Watson’s pitch selection before I pass judgement. He didn’t have a changeup coming out of High School, so I wonder if they are forcing it and limiting the curveball which is already a plus pitch.

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          1. Right! I never actually considered that. If that’s the case it would justify his starts. But I’d rather him do this now than at a higher level. Great insight!

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          2. This is what i was thinking about as well. I havent heard any reports on what hes throwing from lakewood, but i have seen the phillies development staff do this in the past, and so it would make sense that the results arent great. With his curveball, even where it was when he was drafted, he would be racking up the strikeouts in the lower levels. I think they are concentrating on FB command and developing a changeup. I dont think they will send him down to williamsport. I think they might move him to the bullpen later in the year to limit his innings.

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  7. Looking at the Phillies’ RH pitching listed here, makes me much more open to taking HS pitching in the upcoming draft. Phil Bickford just jumped up 1 or 2 spots on my board.

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    1. Bickford looks like someone who if given the chance to play college ball would be a top 10 when drafted. I’m also high on Hunter Harvey.

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      1. “I’m also high on Hunter Harvey”

        You smoking him or mainlining him?

        When was the last time you watched the MLB Phillies play baseball? Do you see a bunch of Phillies bats at the top of Baseball America’s Top 100 list?

        Let me know when you figure it out.

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        1. I think we’ve been over this before. Pitching wins championships. You need to draft those #2, #1 guys in these first rounds. All the bats in the world do you no good if you have rotation of all #5’s

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            2. You missed the point, being 1 and 8 (Cole), the team could use some of those “all the bats in the world”. Personally, I think you need a balanced team to win!

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            3. No. You missed the point. Steven said, ‘All the bats in the world do you no good if you have a rotation of 5’s’. He was right.
              You have a chance to win with a mediocre lineup, and Ace pitchers (2010 Giants). You have no chance with a rotation of 3’s, 4s and 5’s. Ask Texas.
              You can get 4’s and 5’s off the street corners. You draft #1’s in the 1st round. But yeah, you are right. Ideally, you have balance.

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            4. The Rangers were 1 strike away from a WS win, and their starting pitching didn’t lose it for them, their bullpen did along with not having a better RF on Freese’s game 6 tying triple. And the Phillies WS winning rotation consisted of Myers-Blanton-Moyer as the 2-3-4.

              I think people get too tied up in “pitching wins championships” or “hitting wins championships”. You need both, generally, but you can win if either one is just solid. We’ve seen both happen. You need to get hot and you need to be fortunate.

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            5. Funny, the name you left out of the Phillies rotation that won the world series.
              3/4ths of which were 1st round picks.

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            6. I don’t remember if it was you, VOR, but people have argued here in the past that Hamels wasn’t really an ace that year. And it’s a fair argument- he probably wasn’t. So you’re looking at a rotation of a 2 and then some 3s and/or 4s. It really doesn’t matter if they were first round picks if you’re just talking about how good they are on the major league level.

              That was a very average rotation. Blanton’s ERA was almost 5 when we got him and Myers was in AAA for a bit that year. They pitched well down the stretch and in the playoffs but they weren’t really expected to be anchors of a championship staff.

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          3. “I think we’ve been over this before. Pitching wins championships.”

            Yes we have, but you have not learned the lesson.

            The 2012 San Francisco Giants were not a pitching team, they were a hitting team. Bogus Phillies fans and Philly media members with a football between their ears are completely unaware that Citizen’s Bank Park is a hitters park, which makes the Phillies lineup look better than it is (hard to believe I know, but it’s worse than you think) and makes their pitching look worse than it is.

            Conversely, the Giants play in one of the worst hitters parks in the game. Their pitching is not as good as you may think and their hitting is much better. Buster Posey would have won the Triple Crown in the NL if he started for the Phillies.

            Using OPS+ and ERA+ which adjust for park factors, the Phillies were not the 19th best run scoring team in MLB, they were tied for 23rd. The Giants were not the 11th best run scoring team, they were FOURTH.

            The 2012 Phillies were the twelfth best pitching team, the Giants were NINETEENTH.

            Phillies 12th best pitching, 23rd in hitting.

            Giants 4th best hitting, 19th in pitching.

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        2. He doesn’t have to go back to review anything. He has already figured it out.
          Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, Jared Weaver and Verlander. All 1st round picks.
          The last seven (7) WS championships belong to teams that had one of those guys as their ‘Ace’. At least 8 CY young awards and a couple WS MVPs in there too.

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          1. The Phillies had a healthy Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee (Cy Young winner, CG against Yankees in 2009 WS) last year and finished 81 – 81.

            How are the Phillies doing this year?

            The Giants were the 19th best (or worst) pitching team in MLB last year but the Giants were the FOURTH best hitting team in MLB in 2012.

            Who won the 2012 World Series?

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            1. The team that had lost a lot of their offense (Melky Cabrera) and was able to shorten their rotation to having 2/3 of their games pitched by Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner and move Tim Lincecum into a bullpen role that allowed his skills to play better.

              You can’t have just pitching to win, but in the playoffs when your rotation is 3-4 pitchers deep having aces is how you win.

              BTW the team the Giants faced got there because Verlander, Sanchez, Fister, Scherzer might be the best group of 4 starting pitchers of any team.

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            2. The Giants “ACE” was PABLO SANDOVAL.

              I watch PABLO SANDOVAL have a three home run game against the Tigers. Who was that pitcher who started for the Tigers and was knocked off the mound by PABLO SANDOVAL?

              Oh yeah, your favorite guy, JUSTIN VERLANDER.

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            3. It doesn’t matter what the Entire teams’ staff ERA was at the end of the regular season. It’s proven year after year, that you need at least one ace, to have any chance of winning the World Series. You posting some nonsensical team stat, doesn’t change the fact that Wainright, Beckett, Hamels, Sabatha, Lincecum, Carpenter and Matt Cain led their teams to the last 7 championships. All of them 1st round picks and most of them HS 1st round picks.

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            4. The Yankees won the 2009 World Series with their bats. You must have been too busy ironing your green and silver jersey to have watched.

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            6. Not if you were watching the game and paying attention.

              It was the Yankees bats that won the series.

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    2. My concern is most reports say he is currently all fastball with no offspead pitches. Also somewhat violent arm action. That scares me for 16 overall

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      1. I’ve seen video of Bickford and he has an easy arm action. Hunter Harvey, on the other hand, is much more violent. I think Bickford and the LH, Krook will go higher than the current rankings.

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        1. At 16 you have to go BPA and safe. 2nd round is when you start taking risks. If Smith, Crawford, Clarkin or Renfroe are there, you have to go that route.

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          1. You’re assuming the current BA (and other) rankings are the gospel. I like Bickford and Crook better than Clarkin. I actually like Crook’s delivery more than Ball’s (and Krook throws harder). I would prefer a bat though.
            Unfortunately, I think it may be unlikely that any of Crawford, Smith or Renfroe are available when the Phillies draft.

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            1. Kiley has Phillies taking Balog from USF if hitters are gone. Reading up on him now. Not the only place I’ve read that they are interested in him.

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            2. Yeah, I read that. I don’t believe it though. Every other year, it seems, the Phillies leak a supplemental round or 2nd round name, as their potential 1st round target, then turn around and take someone else in the 1st and still get the other guy with the next pick. I specifically remember this with Colier and Gueller. The one time they leaked a 2nd round name and drafted the guy, was Biddle, and even then, they said they really wanted Yelich.

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            3. That’s reassuring. I do recall Klaw last year saying they were hard on Gueller for their first pick. What about Jagielo?

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  9. Thanks for taking my question on the ’15 lineup. I agree on almost all of it. My main two differences are 1) I think Revere’s bat wlil show some life and his speed will help him keep his spot in CF by allowing him to make up for the arm by getting to most balls. Maybe dreaming but hopeful. 2) I think Rosin will be in the lineup. He is proving to be very solid at Reading. I’ve watched several games where he pitched and he passes the eye test and gets stronger as the game goes on. If we don’t trade him I think he’s a major contributor in ’15

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    1. Yes and no, minor league stats are not predictive. There are too many variables including ballpark, league, and player development for trends to really appear. ISO is a quick and cheap way to look at power for a player. The gold standard for projecting power is still the scouting report and what the player is doing and how they are doing it.

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  11. I guess I am not as high on Altherr and Dugan as others here. Even as hot as they have been there K rates are too high for players that aren’t premium HR hitters. This suggest to me that they will be exposed at higher levels. Add to this the fact that they aren’t exactly young for their league. On the other hand, I understand Matt’s trouble finding in-house solutions to the Phillies’ outfield.

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  12. What can I expect from this years Lakewood team: Who’s getting promoted? Who’s getting called up to Lakewood? Who’s even the slightest prospect? Who’s the top prospect? Anything you guys can tell me about Lakewood please share. Thank you.

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    1. The players on Lakewood that could get promoted are Art Charles, William Carmona, Steven Inch, and possibly one of the catchers other than Numata. None are great prospects but are advanced enough at what they are doing that they could see Clearwater by end of year.
      Someone like Andrew Pullin or Dylan Cozens could force their way to Lakewood late in the season if they are great in Williamsport much like Franco in 2011. Also Kevin Brady and Josh Warner will be back up with the team at some point.
      Guys who are “prospects” in some way Numata, Charles, Quinn, Walding, Greene, Tocci, Pointer, Watson, Hanson, Inch (bullpen), Mecias, and Nunez.
      The top guy there is Quinn, though Watson and Tocci aren’t very far behind.

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      1. Thanks a lot. Just a few more questions. Will we see Lino Martinez or Gabriel Lino back in Lakewood at all this year? Is it likely Pullin and Cozens make Lakewood by September? When will Brady and Warner be back and are either prospective? Before the season were Hanson and Inch considered prospects? If Philadelphia drafts a college talent, will we see them in Lakewood? Are Tyler Greene and Brian Pointer still prospects? Also, would you put Walding in the same group as Quinn, Tocci, and Watson? Finally, who would you put in Sally League All-Star consideration? Quinn? Hanson? Numata? Thanks again for your time and help.

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        2. – Possibly, I don’t really know
          – Not likely, they will need to go above and beyond, there is no reason to push them
          – Brady is definitely a prospect, if anything this will force him back to the bullpen where he could move really quickly. Warner is hovering in the back of prospecty range, he is more of a back end guy
          – Not a big time prospect, anyone with a projectable frame at least has a chance in the bullpen, especially LHPs
          – College talent could end up there depending on how advanced it is
          – Greene is a non-prospect for me, Pointer is really interesting and I have no clue how he profiles but there is something there
          – Walding is a step behind those other guys
          – Minor league all-stars are a weird thing but Numata and Charles are putting up good numbers, Mecias, Hanson, and Inch could be in consideration as well

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  14. It seems silly to track player stock week to week. This article lost me when it listed Tocci as 18 and lowered the stock of a 17 year old in full season ball who had five hits in his last four games.

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  15. Quarter Point 2013

    Phillies W-L 24 – 26

    27th OPS+
    19th ERA+

    Giants W-L 28 – 22
    SECOND OPS+
    28th ERA+

    Looks like hitting is extremely important.

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  16. MattWinks —
    Thanks for answering my question on Larry Greene, Jr. While I have not been at all impressed by his attitude or performance to date, your update was absolutely chilling. Sounds like a totally wasted top draft pick. Do the Phillies scouts analyze what they thought they saw in Greene and how things went so horribly wrong? They certainly should recalibrate what they look for in a top HS OF pick, as they’ve bombed on so many of them. Will this impact how they approach the 2013 draft? I realize that HS picks, even first rounders, are risky and you’ll miss on a lot of them, but the Phillies seem to have missed on far more than their share of first-third round HS OF. Do they have a good idea of what they should be looking for? We have Gose as the best of the lot and a long line of duds.

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    1. I count eight, technically seven since Hewitt was signed and drafted as an infielder.
      Mike Anderson, Lonnie Smith, Jeff Jackson, Reggie Taylor, Greg Golson, Zach Collier, Anthony Hewitt, Larry Greene.—-Not a good track record it would appear.

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      1. Lonnie Smith!? He played what, 15 years in the major leagues, and had prominent roles on multiple World Series championships.

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      2. Hudson, Gose, Cozens — Mike Anderson was not a complete bust. Lonnie Smith was actually good.. I do count Hewitt — when drafted he was thought to have little chance to remain in IF and his IF defense stank. Of those listed here, too early to tell anything on Cozens. Going back as far as you did, Lonnie Smith the only hit.

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        1. Lonnie Smith was the gem in the HS first round outfielders drafted category. That was from the beginning of the draft going back to the mid-60s. I would like to comp that to other MLB teams but that is a large undertaking.
          Maybe Matt can do it in his spare time! (tic)

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    2. Golson and Hewitt were gross over drafts who signed pre-draft deals for slot money.

      David Montgomery’s work.

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      1. I’m sure the Phillies determined they would sign for slot before drafting them — since Drew our philosophy in the first three rounds seems to be best player who is certain to sign for slot. A few guys have changed their minds and fooled us, but we haven’t drafted anyone who wouldn’t sign for slot in the early rounds. That puts us in the likely minority of the stupid rich teams. I don’t think our scouts saw Golson and Hewitt as overdrafts. They had the skill set that our scouts just can’t lay off. They are like HOward swinging at low and away breaking balls when they see guys like Golson and Hewitt. Golson wasn’t a pick many of us were happy with at the time, but he wasn’t an awful pick and truly not an overdraft. Hewitt was an overdraft. There wasn’t another team that would have taken him before round two. In addition to being raw, he was extremely old for a HS pick. That should have been a red flag. As the oldest HS kid ranked on people’s top 200 lists, he shouldn’t have been as raw as he was. He was so old that he had to be protected from Rule 5 a year earlier than the other HS draftees. What the scouts saw really should have been discounted for age, and what they saw didn’t go beyond raw tools. He was a lousy fielder and a raw hitter. It was a disastrous pick. I doubt Montgomery had any input beyond setting the overall draft budget and demanding that the team not bust Selig’s suggested slots in the early rounds. The budget was set based upon the Selig slots for the first 10 rounds. We stuck to that Selig budget draft in and draft out. That’s why our spend ranked near the absolute bottom in MLB over the last 5+ drafts, despite being among the top several teams in revenue. The Phillies owners are true believers in Selig’s war on the bonus $ for amateur talent of all stripes. This has been true since Giles bought the team. Really, even before that. The reason Ruly Carpenter sold the team is that he was worried that bonuses (and salaries) were going crazy. Of course, revenues also went crazy and the owners all made more money than ever — many earning profits year in and year out, but even the guys who lost money on an annual basis coming up golden as the value of their franchises skyrocketed. They just had to pick their moment to sell and cash in. The appreciation of the value of the Phillies franchise, with a huge assist from Ed Rendell, has made Giles a very wealthy man.

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        1. Very true, Giles I truelly believe was behind the limited spending. and it hurt this team in the long run. even though he has a small percentage of team, he has a lot of power. Rudy Carpenter did sell the team, because, if you remember the Yankees gave a outfielder a large contract. for the time. and Carpenter said if there is where the sports is going, he was getting out. I really respect carpenter for getting out, because he didn’t want to spend that kind of money, he never lied, he just walked away, the not spending over seligs suggestion was a complete joke. for a big market team. a lot of teams didn’t listen. out of the big markets only the Phillies, I believe listen. Yankees , Boston, I know didn’t listen. also saw the cardinals when they want someone, go over slot and get him. this imo started with the jd drew. drafting. backed in a corner, they needed to step up and sign him. a number 2 is too important of a pick to let walk, if you screwed up in you thinking that he would sign cheaper. you bite the bullet and sign him.

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          1. roccom…..Phillies/city were referred to by Bill Giles as a “small market” in 1994.

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  17. Does RF Freddy Zorilla have a chance as a legitimate top 10 Phuture Phillies prospect? Besides his physical profile, I like his name.
    And Carlos Tocci is inching upwards and continues his play like it is now for another 2/3 weeks, may stay at Lakewood.

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    1. The fact that he was sent back down to the VSL after spending spring in Florida is not a great sign, neither is his 15 strikeouts in 46 PAs in a league that he is on the older side for. It would take a lot to have anywhere near prospect lists.

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