The second LV game is all the way at the end.
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Cesar!
Seems like he’s now what we thought he was before the double jump in 2011. Of he keeps it up, it’s be ok by me.
Thanks for the post, Brad in DC. Glad to see you helping out.
Hewitt goes deep. I’m a little surprised that a 1 for 5 night drops his average at this point. Small victories.
If he ends up as a 20/20 CF with a .250 avg..that’s still pretty valuable, right?
ill walk from Pittsburgh to Philly if Hewitt goes 20/20 in a Phillies uniform
Maybe 20Ks in 20ABs……….
I’ll walk from Hartford to Philly and back again, if he does that. I’ll even walk down the middle lane of the NJ Turnpike.
I get it. That has been done
Leaving aside the snarky (but true!) comments about the likelihood of him turning into a 20/20 center fielder in the majors (and I’d add that .250 is probably overly optimistic as well), even in the unlikely event that he could manage .250 20/20, add in the likely sub .300 OBP, and no, that’s not pretty valuable.
Average ML CF in 2011: .261/.325/.409. Even the hypothetical .250 20/20 Hewitt wouldn’t come close to those numbers.
Not a prospect.
Tend to agree, but I’d be more hesitant to put the NP label on him than, say, Overbeck or Ruf. Athletically gifted players are always going to have a chance, because they’ll get more opportunities than their peers. Hewitt’s going to start every day for Clearwater this year, and barring a completely collapse will probably move up to Reading next year. It is possible that something clicks and he taps into his crazy potential? Probably not, but it’s not impossible.
Eh, setting aside Overbeck who is indeed no prospect, I actually think Ruf has an outside chance to make it. He’ll need to keep hitting, get a shot (which is by no means guaranteed), and can’t afford to get off to a slow start when & if he does, but he’s a guy with actually skills – contact, plate discipline, line drive hitter. Really everything except power (and he is not a zero even there) and speed.
Granted, as a first baseman the lack of power is probably enough to keep him from getting a shot (& succeeding if he does), and his age suggests that there isn’t much room for additional growth, but he is a guy who could be a .300 hitter with decent on base skills and some mid range power. If he could play the outfield, he would be a real prospect even at his age.
Hewitt … even this year he strikes out six times as often as he walks. I guess I just don’t buy the “crazy potential.” Plus athleticism does not in my opinion have much to do with contact ability or plate discipline. I don’t see him making dramatic progress in those two areas, and a 6 to 1 K/BB ratio is inconsistent with major league success, regardless of his athleticism.
I look at Juan Francisco. Far better contact skill, but same lack of plate discipline. Francisco is that type of hitter the posters above envision, a guy who hits .250-.260 with 20 HRs in a full season, low OBP.
Now Francisco is a hitter who generally hit .280 in the minors and made the majors at a younger age than Hewitt is now. Realistically, if Francisco became that player what happens to a .223 career minor league hitter? Hewitt’s average is up, but his plate discipline still sucks.
95th percentile comp for Hewitt if everything came together: Rick Ankiel.
A .250 20/20 year would come close to those ML average numbers. 600 AB with 30 2B, 5 3B, and 20 HR would produce a .417 SLG. None of that is out of line with his career power numbers and power is a skill that usually develops later.
He still has a long way to go but it is getting harder to say that Tyson Gillies and Jiwan James are leagues ahead of him as a prospect. All have work to do. That is why teams like to have multiple toolsy prospects because the upside is worth it when one of them puts it all together.
This is a moot point because .250 20/20 is not happening, but even if it somehow did, if you take even this year’s BB rate (higher that his career average), he would be looking at roughly a .281 OBP, nowhere near the league average OBP for a center fielder. A guy who has a SLG% around the league average but OBP 44 points below the league average is nowhere near average overall. .281 is horrible, just horrible. Sure you can find a few major leaguers with OBP that bad, but as a rule they are shortstops, below replacement level players, or both. The only CF last year that bad was Alex Rios, and of course that was a career worst year for him. (Actually a pretty good comp if you look JUST at 2011, and ignore the fact that Rios actually has good contact skills, but whereas that represents Rios’ worst season, it is probably Hewitt’s ceiling).
As for Gilles and James, Gillies is the one guy who is a real prospect. Miles, miles ahead of Hewitt. James I don’t really buy as a prospect, but even he has a better career K/BB ratio than Hewitt (though a tad worse this year).
The point people around here miss about toolsie hitters, is that all the tools in the world won’t help if a guy has lousy plate discipline and contact skills.
Question – has there ever been a guy who, as a 23 year old in high A had a K/BB ration of 6 to 1 (his career best) and went on to have a major league career?
Not a prospect.
You are confusing things. You keep mixing his ability to hit .250 with the hypothetical of if he did hit .250 with 20 HR (in the majors to boot). If he does that he is clearly a prospect.
Yes there have been players with that plate discipline who went on to major league careers. Not many but they are out there. Hewitt will most likely end up in the 4-1 or 5-1 K/BB range also. Nobody is saying that he is a great prospect. He is raw, however, and is rapidly improving his plate discipline. Tyson Gillies BTW does not have a great BB rate either. He has really only played extremely well one year and that was a long time ago in a great offensive environment. Hewitt has the tools to be a 40 HR guy, not just 20. He probably won’t get there, but anyone who can hit .250 with 20 HR in the majors (the original supposition here) has got to be a prospect. Mark Reynolds had an 800+ OPS last year hitting .221. It can happen.
‘The point people around here miss about toolsie hitters, is that all the tools in the world won’t help if a guy has lousy plate discipline and contact skills.’….that point has not been missed….most all posters know the majority of all the ‘toolsie’ guys have below average contact skills…..in lay man’s term, that CANNOT hit a curve ball.
Cloyd PH? Awesome. Looking forward to hearing some things about the VSL players.
I should have an initial report on the VSL up this weekend. I wanted to get a sense of who’s playing regularly in the first few games before putting something together. One player to watch is 5’11″ LHP Sergio Velis. Usually shorter pitchers are lesser prospects, but he was the 3rd player noted last year that received a $100K+ international bonus from the Phillies (after Carlos Tocci and Jiandido Tromp).
A couple months ago when I read that Velis and Tromp received 100k+ bonuses, it caused me to check Velis closer. Velis really stunk it up in the Venezuelan junior winter league. Couldn’t throw strikes.
He is just a kid. He probably throws relatively hard (hence the bonus). Does not mean he can control it at this point. The bonus just makes him someone to watch a little more closely at this point.
Hyatt was sailing along, 9 up, 9 down with 3 Ks through 3 innings. Boom! Total melt down. What the heck happened? This is a game that you go over pitch by pitch. Possible excuses: Everyone in the lineup had seen him once. He walked the 1st guy in the 4th. He was wild in the strike zone. He was lucky the first time through the order. His right arm fell off and he replaced it with his left arm. A bug flew up his nose.
A huge thank you to Brad for agreeing to post the box scores each day!!!
Thanks Brad for agreeing to upload the boxscores of each Phillies farm team.
Thanks Brad, you are the man!
Here here, love me some morning box scores!
Funny how Bonilla had the same amount Ks as Pettibone……but in 5 less innings lol
Rosenberg and Bonilla with impressive relief appearances.
The kid at reading ceasar is he consider a legit prospect. I have not heard a lot about him.anyone seen him play.
RANKED IN THE TOP TEN SECOND BASEMEN IN THE MINORS IN SPRING 2011 BY MLB.COM
Ranked 17th by us here in Feb. Over 1400 Minor League PA’s and has a .350 OBP .292 BA but only a .753 OPS. Nothing spectacular about his defense or speed. Still just 22 Years old. I’d say he is a prospect but not an impact prospect.
Looks like he has speed, but needs to learn how to use it. 5 steals and 5 caught stealing this season is not a good ratio.
He has plus defense and speed. 32 steals in 65 games in Williamsport, that’s an impressive total. I see Hernandez’s upside as Luis Castillo, who was a valuable player in his prime.
Cesar has great hands and plays a terrific 2B but his arm is just average.
Thanks Brad….I live for the box scores. Not sure why you would be surprised by that from Hyatt. It happens all the time to big league pitchers. Austin’s K/9 Rate is really down this season so something is off.
More patient hitters in AAA then AA. Younger players hacking versus veteran hitters showing patience for the call up to the Bigs for that one last cup of coffee.
If, and I know this is a big if, Hamilton would sign for 7 or 8 years at $20M per season, should the Phils be thinking about spending that money on him or Cole?
Keep the discussion to prospects.
Those averages for the Lakewood team are horrendous.
Hamilton is awesome, but 7 or 8 years at 20 per for a guy who’s injury prone, and already 32(?)? No thanks.
Maybe Gregg can open the weekly off topic discussion again.
Hamilton gets 7 or 8 years is nuts. hope the phillies try and move ashe up to see if he is legit .I believe this is polanco last year, so instead of paying big dollars in free agency maybe we can go one or two years on cheaper veteran, waiting for this kid to be ready, just a thought
Cloyd going tonight in LHV. It would be nice to hear about him if anyone gets to the game. Can someone please remind me how he’s so old in his 4th year in the system just out of high school? I think there was time off or in independent ball after HS. He turns 25 tomorrow.
He went to University of Nebraska-Omaha
Yes, then he dropped out and didn’t get drafted for another year (I think)
One name Albert Pujols things in baseball are rarely straight lined
Pettiboner at full mast
Next 2 Phillies call ups if the pen still falters should be Cloyd and Rosenberg . Both are in their mid 20′s and need to be tested
Crossing fingers that Cody Asche becomes the next legitimate 3rd base prospect for the Phillies. It’s great to see that he hits both lefties and righties. If he continues at this pace, I wonder if we’ll see him in Reading soon.
and Diekman is nasty.
Stellar thus far to bad Charlie didn’t go to him right away. Damn that Qualls
Charlie was ejected
What inning did chuckles get tossed?
atta boy Hunter…walked it off got Diekman his 1st big league win!
Diekman flashing nasty off speed stuff and a 93-96 mph fastball. The first reinforcement has arrived. Take that Jonny Venters! Word to those who watch Lehigh Valley on video – that radar gun is at least 2-3 Mph slow and i would say 3. It consistently showed Diekman at 89-92, which seemed wrong at the time. He throws a lot harder.
Charlie is not the manager for a team like this. why not bunt with two on and no outs in the eighth? put pressure on the other team. mayberry could have been replaced if he cant bunt. dumb managing
They bunted in the first and couldn’t get a run. Bunting is the stupid part.
Your run expectancy goes down when you bunt… Bunting is the most overrated part of baseball.
Who are you going to replace Mayberry with?
can we leave the day-to-day Manual moaning somewhere else..
You don’t know that moaning about Charlie Manuel is relevant to minor league baseball discussion?
‘Bunting is the most overrated part of baseball.’..there are a few HoFs who would argue that point.
Let’s be clear we’re referring to sacrifice bunting. And yes, it absolutely hurts your chances of winning.
Being good at playing the game doesn’t make you good at game strategy.
Really liked what I saw out of Diekman.
Diekman. Bastardo. Papelbon at the back end of games could rival the Braves for the best in the game.
Braves have been leaking oil. O’Flaherty sucks now and Venters hasn’t been that good.
Hold your horses, its just been one game. Lets wait and see before we crown Diekman as the next Venters.
Looks like Jeremy Barnes has been called up to Reading,
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=l_trn&lid=113
And the Rizz going back to AA
Jake looks good in his debut:
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21459105
Wow, that is the nasty stuff right there. He made people look foolish on the low slider, even righties. It was the Astros, so take it with a grain of salt, but still a good-looking debut. Hooray for the minor league system!
that kid is nasty.wow second starting to read about the draft. think i found our first pick?
Lewis Brinson
Rank: 36
Coral Springs HS (Fla.), Senior
Height: 6’3″, Weight: 170
Position: OF
DOB: 05/08/1994
Bats: R, Throws: R
Raw, toolsy high school outfielders are always popular come Draft time and if his summer performance is any indication, Brinson has the chance to be one of the best in this category.
Tall, lanky and athletic, he reminds some of Dexter Fowler or Cameron Maybin. Brinson has good bat speed and can spray line drives gap-to-gap. There’s leverage in his swing with good raw power, which could develop into above-average pop in the future. He’s an easily above-average runner, which should play well on both sides of the ball. He makes the plays in the outfield and has a strong arm.
More than anything, Brinson is still raw. But as he showed over the summer, the more he plays against good competition, the better he gets. That bodes well for his future and there are sure to be many teams interested in his very full toolbox.
now this is a phillies draft pick
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/12/3016330/phillies-mod-2
I hope they grab Smoral if he drops. If not I could see Hunter Virant as a good pick. Id like them to grab Trey Williams in one of those first 3 picks. Similar senior season to Singleton a good buy low.
bunting is over rated that is nuts.after that remark i just am stunned.
How is it nuts? You only get three outs in an inning. Why on earth would you GIVE one away?
Bunting becomes overrated as a strategy used early in the game. It is helpful when used late in a game with a runner on second and 0 outs. Or as an AB for a Pitcher with a runner on base and less that 2 outs as they as almost an automatic out. The point of pointing out how there is an inflated view of bunting has to do with this incessant belief in “small ball” and how it will cure all of the Phillie’s offensive problems. There is a big difference between playing smart situation baseball and automatically bunting every time the opportunity arises.