I’m running kind of short on time today. I’m in the middle of working on something interesting to include in my draft recap type post, so today I’m going to just throw out a topic and allow everyone to weigh in and discuss. Today’s topic is simple; list (and rank if you can) the Phillies 10 best pitching prospects. Factor in the following criteria:
1. Performance
2. Projection
3. Health
4. Proximity to the majors
Take these into account in whatever order you feel is most important. You don’t have to take the time to rank them from best to least if you don’t want, but the more people who do, the more interesting the results will be. This also will serve as a tool for me as I want to see what the perception of our guys is. For now, JA Happ is eligible, as he won’t pass the innings mark to disqualify him from ROY voting, so we’ll use that criteria.
Phuture Phillies 
01. Carlos Carrasco
02. J.A. Happ
03. Jason Knapp
04. Joe Savery
05. Colby Shreve
06. Kyle Drabek
07. Jared Cosart
08. Antonio Bastardo
09. Julian Sampson
10. Michael Stutes
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01. JA Happ
02. Carlos Carrasco
03. Tyson Brummett
04. Kyle Drabek
05. Antonio Bastardo
06. Drew Naylor
07. Andrew Carpenter
08. Jason Knapp
09. Joe Savery
10. Edgar Garcia
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1- Carlos Carrassco
2- JA Happ
3- Joe Savery
4- Kyle Drabek
5- Edgar Garcia (getting shelled in AA, but only 20)
6- Drew Naylor (has started to look better in A+)
7- Jason Knapp
8- Julian Sampson
9- Vance Worley
10- Antonio Bastardo (Still coming back from injuries, probably should be higher, but I’m taking a wait and see approach)
Stutes, Carpenter, De Fratus, would all be right after for various reasons.
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1. Carrassco
2. Drabek
3. Savery
4. Happ
5. Bastardo
6. Sampson
7. Naylor
8. Knapp
9. Garcia
10. Carpenter
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1-Carrasco
2-Happ
3-Savery
4-Drabek
5-Stutes
6-Garcia, E
7-Worley
8-Sampson
9-Naylor
10- De Fratus
While I’m concerned about the gap between AAA and A- with just a couple of prospects the fact that i debated between DeFratus, Cisco, Pettibone and Cosart (can’t pick them as they haven’t even pitched in the system) shows that the future although off in the distance is definitely bright.
And i know its not pitching but Team USA won today vs Taiwan with Jason Donald getting an RBI single and Marson getting his trademark walk and blocked the plate nicely on an outfield assist. I’d like to see them move those guys up in the lineup as some of the top of the lineup guys aren’t hitting.
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1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Savery
4. Drabek
5. Garcia
6. Knapp
7. Sampson
8. Carpenter
9. Naylor
10. Bastardo
I tried to stay away from any of this year’s draftees, but Knapp forced my hand. De Fratus, Stutes, Cisco, and Worley make me drool, but I haven’t seen enough of them to put them on the list yet. I wish I could’ve slotted Heitor Correia just after Knapp, but seeing as he’s MIA…..
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1. Carrassco
2. Happ
3. Savery
4. Drabek
5. Garcia
6. Sampson
7. Carpenter
8. Garcia
9. Stutes
10. Brummet
Mostly favoring guys closer to the top of the system, with a few exceptions.
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1. Carrasco
2. Drabek
3. Savery
4. Garcia
5. Bastardo
6. Happ
7. Knapp
8. Worley
9. Sampson
10. Naylor
Biggest factor in ranking was projected future performance. More interested in top of the rotation potential vs better chance of making it to the majors.
didn’t include any pitchers from this year’s draft who haven’t made an appearance…
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1. Carrasco
2. Savery
3. Drabek
4. Happ
5. Garcia
6. Carpenter
7. Sampson
8. Naylor
9. Knapp
10. Stutes
I’m leaving Bastardo off of the list until we know more about the injury. I gave more weight to projectability, so that is why I have Happ at 4 instead of higher. I think we’ve seen about the best you’re going to get from him, which is a 5-6 inning guy. The guys directly below him also project higher, IMO, but his track record has to count for something.
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1.Carrasco.2.Happ. 3.Stutes.4.Knapp 5. Sampson.6.Drabek.7.Garcia. 7.Savery.8.May 9.Swimmer. 10Naylor
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Carrasco
Happ
Drabek
Savery
Edgar Garcia-getting hit hard, but hes 20 in AA
Carpenter-pitching well 2nd time around in Reading
Drew Naylor-the walks at Clearwater are a worry sign, he always had a good ratio until now
Stutes-simply dominant so far, clearwater will be a big test next year
Worley-great command, maybe a little too hittable
Knapp-off to a great start, but its rookie league
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1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Drabek
4. Savery
5. Carpenter
6. Naylor
7. Sampson
8. Knapp
9. Bastardo
10. Garcia
Went with readiness at the top, except Drabek. As always, difficult to balance the four parameters. I would likely do it 10 different ways on 10 different days., but here is today’s.
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A little off topic…PP aren’t you glad now that the Phils didn’t draft Gerrit Cole? Even the “dark side” couldn’t come up with the bills to fill.
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1 Carrasco – Should be ready in 09
2 Happ – half notch below CC because of age/projection
3 Savery – could break out in 09
4 Garcia – still young for his level
5 Naylor – solid #’s but old for his level
6 Drabek – down a spot or two until he shows he is fully healthy
7 Knapp – my favorite, hope he keeps it up
8 Bastardo – still not fully convinced he is for real.
9 Sampson – still young but not enough k’s
10 Worley – to early to be any higher.
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1) Carlos Carrasco
2) Kyle Drabek
3) JA Happ
4) Joe Savery
5) Andrew Carpenter
6) Antonio Bastardo
7) Jason Knapp
8) Edgar Garcia
9) Stutes
10) Sampson
11) Costart
12) Worley
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1. Carlos Carassco
2. Joe Savery
3. Kyle Drabek
4. Vance Worley
5. JA Happ
6. Edgar Garcia
7. Julian Sampson
8. Jason Knapp
9. Mike Stutes
10. Tony the Bastard
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First post here. Love the site and I’ve been checking it just about daily for some time now. Just my 2 cents:
1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Savery
4. Garcia
5. Bastardo
6. Drabek
7. Naylor
8. Byrd
9. Knapp
10. Escalona
Given the unpredictable nature of the minors, I gave an edge to guys who are higher up the ladder. I put Byrd on the list over Carpenter because at 6’3″, 170, he seems projectable, though I really don’t know much about his stuff. And he’s pitched well since his recall to high A. If Carpenter closes the year strong at Reading, he would replace Byrd, for me. I know Escalona is just a RP, but since he’s a lefty, and already pitching well at AA, I think he’s got a better chance of helping a major league team than most of the A ball pitchers. And, like a few other people, I wanted to stay away from this year’s draft class, but Knapp has looked too good.
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1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Drabek
4. Savery
5. Garcia
6. Carpenter
7. Knapp
8. Naylor
9. Sampson
10. Bastardo
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1- Carrasco (Looking very impressive at AAA)
2- Happ (ML ready middle of the rotation guy)
3- Savery (Starting to look like the guy we drafted)
4- Knapp (A huge suprise, has loads of upside)
5- Drabek (Very impressive his first 3 starts after TJ)
6- Sampson (Has pitched 5.0+ innings in his last 10 starts)
7- Garcia (No need to rush him at Reading)
8- Naylor (getting better at Clearwater)
9- Carpenter (Looked great in Clearwater, ehhh at Reading)
10- Stutes (Pretty impressive at Lakewood, but hes turning 22 in a couple weeks?!)
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Normally I’m just reader of this site but had to jump in on this one being it’s my favorite topic & also feel the system has improved greatly the past few years in this area. I’m not going to include Happ in this because he is pretty much there already.
1. Carrasco
2. Drabek
3. Stutes
4. Bastardo
5. Naylor
6. Brummett
7. Worley
8. Sampson
9. De Fratus
10. Diekman
That was harder than i thought. I’m still not a hugh Savery fan (like his stick more than his arm to be honest w/ you). I didn’t include a good part of this years draft class do to it being so early but most of them are looking good. Can’t wait to see how all these kids do in the next couple years!
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1.Carrasco – no brainer for #1 for phils. combines upside stuff with performance and health
2.Happ – looks to be ready to contribute as a solid #4 starter (maybe can become a #3)
3. Drabek – without the injury risk, this guy’s ceiling is through the roof.
4. Sampson – has shown a lot at a young age. he has the stuff that could project as a top of the rotation guy. needs to get his control down, but the sky is the limit.
5.Knapp – i LOVE this guy. i think that he has the highest ceiling of any phillies pitching prospect. not enough experience yet to be higher on this list.
6. Bastardo – without injury risk, he is #3 for me on this list. his BAA is great as are his K rate. to me, he is the anti-savery. not a great pedigree, but awesome peripherals.
Stutes – came out of nowhere, but looks like a keeper
7. Savery – I am clearly in the minority on this blog on Savery. Most people on this blog look at his performance recently and say “see, good era. he is doing great.” i look at his performance recently and get worried. my issue with him all along is that i don’t see top of the rotation stuff nor consistency. That being said, i think that he will definitely make it to the majors. I just think as a #4/#5 guy. my concern is that he doesn’t have a high k rate and gives up a lot of hits with moments of wildness. he is getting away with this in A ball, but i fear it won’t last as he moves up. to me it is simple to grade top pitching prospects. I think that it was the guy from BA that said this on this blog…top pitching prospects strike guys out in the minors. i really think that it is that simple with pitchers, especially 22 year old pitchers in A ball. but i will give him the benefit of the doubt and hope that he refines his stuff. that being said, this guy looks to me a lot like another phillies first round pick..Adam Eaton.
8. Naylor – have to question his ceiling given his age and performance at Clearwater. but he will be in the show in some capacity.
9. garcia – i am not a big fan, but he is 20 in AA ball. getting lit up in AA ball, but he must show the FO enough stuff to put him there.
10. Andrew Carpenter – will be in the show. not sure if more than a long reliever at this point. i was really excited about him, but he did not have a good year.
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Carrasco
Savery
Happ
Drabek
Naylor
Garcia
Sampson
Carpenter
Knapp
Stutes
Honorable mention:
Worley, Cisco, Brummett, De Fratus, Bastardo, Diekman
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1. Carlos Carrasco (Best Overall)
2. Kyle Drabek (Most Potential)
3. Joe Savery (Good potential and close to the big leagues)
4. JA Happ (Ready to start in Philly now)
5. Julian Sampson (Will be young for clearwater in 09)
6. Jason Knapp (In GCL but has been dominant and only 17)
7. Vance Worley (Moving up the ladder quickly)
8. Antonio Bastardo (Good age for AA and pitching well)
9. Edgar Garcia (Very young for AA but getting hit a lot)
10. Drew Naylor (A little old but starting to figure out High A)
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Carrasco
Happ
Savery
Bastardo
Drabek
Stutes
Cisco
Knapp
Worley
Brummett
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1. Carassco
2. Happ
3. Bastardo (ignoring the injury–he seems healthy now)
4. Savery
5. Drabek (will be higher when he proves to be totally recovered)
6. Garcia (good in high A–forget about AA for now)
7. Stutes
8. Knapp
9. Worley
10. Naylor
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Carrasco
Happ
Garcia
Savery
Drabek
Knapp
Naylor
Bastardo
Worley
Stutes
Carpenter
Not considering guys like Cosart who haven’t pitched or not pitched significantly, but likely make this list next year. Downgrading Drabek and Bastardo for not being fully back from injury, at least to the extent of being able to pitch a normal pitch count.
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Isn’t it Great that we have 20 now to follow?
Not 10 or 3 like 2 years ago?
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1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Drabek
4. Savery
5. Bastardo (assuming he’s healthy)
6. Knapp
7. Worley
8. Sampson
9. Garcia
10. Stutes
Honorable mentions: Shreve, Cosart (neither listed because I’m not going to judge before they play a game), Slate, Schwimer, Rosenberg, Brummett in no particular order
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1. Carrasco
2. Happ
3. Drabek
————-
4. Knapp
5. Sampson
6. Savery
7. Worley
8. Edgar Garcia
9. Bastardo
10. Stutes
Just missed: Carpenter, Naylor, Brummett, Chapman, and De Fratus
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I’ve seen the love for Garcia over the last two years. All I know is he is young, has good stuff and has peformed OK to pretty good in leagues he is young for. Can anyone paint a better picture of his stuff, makeup, etc. for me? Is there an MLB comp for his upside?
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My guess at ceiling in parentheses. Happ seems more likely to reach his than, say, Drabek or Sampson who are much farther away, and we know more about the first three guys (and my #10) than the younger or more newly acquired arms.
1. Carrasco (#2 starter). The one guy we can project with some confidence to be above-average in the bigs… eventually, if not in 2009-10.
2. Savery (#3 starter). Up-and-down first full season, but he’s healthy, throws grounders, and seems to have mental toughness.
3. Happ (#4 starter). It seems safe to assume that ’07 was a blip.
4. Drabek (ace?). I want more strikeouts, but he’s recovering nicely and maybe the injury and layoff matured him.
5. Naylor (mid-rotation starter? setup man?). High-A struggles aren’t a concern yet.
6. E. Garcia (swingman?). AA struggles aren’t a concern yet, but low K rate might be.
7. Bastardo (swingman/lefty specialist?). Ceiling still seems low-ish.
8. Sampson (#2-3 starter). Decent full-season debut at 19.
9. Knapp (closer?). Seems to have great raw stuff.
10. Carpenter (#5 starter/situational reliever). Hopefully just having Happ’s ’07.
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1. Carrasco
2. Drabek
3. Happ
4. Bastardo
5. Savery
6. Naylor
7. Knapp
8. Sampson
9. Carpenter
10. Shreve
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i think the optimism for knapp is a little out of control…hes looking good in the GCL, but those #s need to be taken with a grain of salt. any half decent pitching prospect dominates that level. see kyle davies…5.94 career major league ERA, 60/9 k:bb ratio in 62 innings of rookie ball. i assume knapp will start at lakewood next year, so we will learn a little more about him then.
also, julian sampson is tantalizing, but a guy with his raw stuff really ought to be striking out more people in low A ball. i know he’s a scouts dream, and if he winds up developing he’ll be a stud, but to me he is a greg golson equivalent who’s pitching instead of hitting.
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Governator,
I would agree completly if Knapp were 20 yrs old. But remember, he too is a “rookie” to professional baseball. These are clearly the BEST hitters he’s ever faced. But he’s still having great success. Granted the pitchers have a distinct advantage for the most part, but he’s been striking guys out and been downright dominant.
Plus, he’s 17 yrs old, IIRC. He’s young and having little adjustment problems. That’s kinda big, IMO. And he’s got a live-arm. A very live arm.
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I dont doubt he has a live arm…but to put him as one of our top 5-6 pitchers when he is essentially all projection at this point and 4 years away from the bigs is a little optimistic. I hope he becomes a dominant SP just as much as anyone, but to christen him the second coming now just sets him up for an inevitable fall from grace later. his numbers are great now, which is better than them not being great now…but we’ll know significantly more about him at his time next year.
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Yeah 17 year olds who throw in the mid 90s, with room to throw harder shouldn’t be looked at as good pitching prospects. Especially when they have numbers to back it up.
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The same approach can be taken with Happ as well though Governator. It seems a lot of people put too much value on him just because he is close to the Majors. Chances are that if Drabek makes it to the majors, he will be a better pitcher than Happ, but he is consistently rated below him.
I understand the importance of reaching the majors, it just seems like Happ gets a pass when it comes to criticism. His stuff is mediocre, hes had up and down success in the minors, and he never projected to be anything more than a 4. But because he has already pitched in the Majors, he is being rated as our number 2 prospect by most. I don’t see the logic. They are prospects, players with the prospect of doing something good in the Majors. With Happ, we know what we’ve got, with someone like Knapp, we aren’t sure, but we know we have a kid with a huge arm and better stuff, while displaying good results on the field. I’ll take that over Happ, in terms of a prospect list.
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Sampson shouldn’t be on anyone’s top-10 list right now IMHO. He doesn’t miss enough bats. I know he’s young for the league and all, but he’s got to find a way to strike guys out.
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I’m surprised I’m the only one who’s mentioned Slate so far. 6’5 200, 19 years old, and while his ERA and HR numbers aren’t great, he’s got a 24/2 K/BB ratio. He was one of the more surprising, projectable picks of last year’s draft. A 37th rounder last year, he throws 92 and may not even be allowed to throw his best pitch (dunno on that one, last I heard was that they weren’t allowing him to throw it to let him work on other pitches).
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I don’t see anyone anointing Knapp as the “second coming” – at best, he was ranked by one poster as the #3 pitching prospect in our system (behind Happ, who certainly isn’t the “first coming”)…mostly people have him in the #6-9 range, which I think is appropriate and certainly not “second coming” status.
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Phillychuck Last week I asked the same question about his strikeouts. Phuturephillies said at this stage it is not as important as later on he is just learning his craft.
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Ducky…I completely forgot about Slate in my rankings. I’m actually surprised nobody else had mentioned him either. In my mind, he’s fairly equivalent to Cosart (late round high school pick) just a year older. Good call on your part.
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Noone’s mentioning this year’s Paul Owens winner Les Walrond. Very surprising.
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1) Carlos Carrasco – should replace Kendrick
2) Kyle Drabek – best stuff and highest ceiling.
3) Ja Happ – MLB ready, but no ace
4) Antonio Bastardo – dominant before his injury
5) Jason Knapp – hardest thrower in the system
6) Joe Savery – lefty Joe Blanton
7) Julien Sampson – solid in every way
8) Vance Worley – fast track to the majors?
9) Drew Naylor – took a step back, but still has promise
10) Jonathan Pettibone – just makes the final spot
in team photo: Edgar Garcia, Tyson Brummett, Jared Cosart, Colby Schreve, Drew Carpenter
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Carrasco- the closest but isn’t nice to have others that have just as high a ceiling
Happ- This decades Randy Wolf?
Drabeck- Maybe the best stuff of anyone, just alittle leary because of the injury
Savery- expectaions too high in first full year, flashed dominence
Bastardo- just seems to know how to pitch
Worley- alittle leazy about 1 first year guys but the numbers don’t lie
sturtes- see worley
Sampson- alittle rocky this year, but watch out for 09
Knapp=will take over for lidge in 2012
carpenter- should bounce back in 09
Garcia- too young for AA, but the expierience will make him even better in 09
next five- pettibone, naylor, schreve, slate, brummett
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Strikeouts are very important. They are even more important if you don’t keep the ball on the ground. Sampson keeps the ball on the ground extremely well. 52% GB, 30% FB this season. He throws hard, he just needs to refine his secondary stuff and I think the K’s will come.
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1) Carlos Carrasco (#3/4 starter who could be much better.)
2) Kyle Drabek (ace/#2 potential, but injuries are a concern)
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3) Savery (#4/5 starter, was better before arm injuries)
4) Happ (major-league ready)
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5) Garcia (stuff is reportedly weak right now…)
6) Knapp (still needs a decent off-speed pitch, potential closer)
7) Sampson (very projectable, low k rate)
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8) Bastardo (is he fully recovered?)
9) Naylor (should make major leagues, but as a starter or middle-relief pitcher?)
10) Carpenter (although he just got blasted by trenton, I think of him as a Matt Maloney type of prospect next year, innings-eating #5, otherwise known as trade bait if his game picks up.)
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I did not mean to incorporate those smily faces…
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everyone has forgotten the sleeper…so i wont list my full ranking ill just say at number 6. (thee) Anthony Gose
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i don’t know if i would call joe savery a lefty joe blanton
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PP…where are you getting the GB/FB splits? baseball reference doesnt appear to have them.
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they did a good thing by moving Garcia up to double A…he was performing well in clearwater….the experience he’s getting now couldn’t have come at a better time in his career….next yr is what’s going to define his MLB future….he’s in double A now souly for the experience….next yr is when the real ball game comes into play!!
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1. Carrassco (21yo, .48 era in AAA) ready by mid 2009 at age 22.
2. Drabek (20yo, 2.25 era in RK) – most projectable arm, should finish 2009 in A-/A+ at 21 despite injury time missed.
3. Happ – (25yo, 3.30 era in AAA) ready now, dominated when healthy in every level but at 26 in 09 needs a spot.
4. Savery (22yo, 4.01 era in A+) over early jitters, dominant lately and spends 2009 in AA at 23.
5. Bastardo – (22yo, 1.17era in A+, 3.57 in AA) health is the biggest concern, has dominated at every level if healthy.
6. Sampson (19yo, 4.58era in A-) holding his own in A- despite very young age, finishes 09 in A+ at only 20yo.
7. Garcia – (21yo, 3.97era in A+/9.50 in AA) getting crushed in AA but still very young, looks to rebound in AA at only 22.
8. Naylor (22yo, 2.99era in A-/5.63 in A+) – struggling in A+ at 22, repeats next year, needs to step up there at 23.
9. Knapp (17yo, yes 17 – 2.61era in RK)- Monster arm/age potential but young, eventually to A- in 2009 at only 18.
10. Carpenter – (23yo, 2.92era in A+/6.13 in AA) Repeats AA next year, hopefully pulls it together this time at 24.
Honorable Mention:
Worley – 20 in A- and dominating, possible A+/AA in 2009
Just Missed:
Stutes – 21 dominating A-, good chance at A+/AA by 22.
Cisco – 21 and dominating A-, starter or reliever?
Brummett – 23,repeats AA at 24, solid arm but not dominant.
Castro – only 23 in AAA, don’t think Phils see him starting.
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here is a question to the group. most people on this blog rate carasco from a #2 – #4 pitcher in the bigs. most people on this blog think very highly of savery too.
so comparing carasco to savery (stuff, production, injury history, age), how do you justify saying that savery will be anything more than a #4/#5 when most people peg carasco as a #3?
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Was slate a H.S. hard to sign.Why was he drafted so late. If he project to throw in the ninetys.
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I don’t think mine will be very different from everyone else’s, but just to go on record…
1. Carrasco. Really impressed with his start to Triple-A. Should start next year back at Lehigh Valley, but should be ready to join big league club sometime in 2009.
2. Happ. Ceiling may only be a #4, but his floor is higher than anyone else on this list but Carrasco. Throw out an injury-plagued 2007 and you have a guy with phenomenal numbers.
3. Drabek. Numbers were better than I realized for age 19 season at Lakewood. Love the killer curve coupled with the strong groundball tendencies (55% last year; 65% this year), and recovery from TJ shouldn’t be a problem.
4. Savery. As others have said, hampered by unrealistic expectations. Ceiling is #3 starter, but on track to be there by 2010.
5. Garcia. More than a year younger than Naylor and had success at a higher level. We’ve seen struggles like this at after promotion to Reading before — but they get corrected the next year (Carrasco in 2007).
6. Naylor. I’ll admit it: I’m scared by his Clearwater numbers this year, where he’s age appropriate for the FSL at 22. Hopefully just having trouble adjusting, but wondering if the fastball isn’t good enough for him to be anymore than a #4.
7. Bastardo. Not as concerned about the injury as I am about the walks (4.3 BB/9 this year) and extreme flyball ratio (55% this year). Good K numbers, but could wind up in the bullpen.
8. Knapp. Yes, it’s only the GCL, but his numbers have been impressive for a 17-year old. Should start next year in Lakewood, and we can see what he’s all about.
9. Worley. Yeah he’s a college starter ripping through the lower minors, but he’s also still just 20. Love the command (0.8 BB/9) and high groundball rate (59%).
10. Sampson. So-so peripherals, but still like the size, scouting reports, and groundball ratio of 52% (as James alluded to. Needs to develop secondary pitches.
The really exciting thing, though, is that there are a number of worthy pitchers who could jump onto this list next year. Stutes and Cisco are discounted a bit for being college starters ripping through the lower minors, but their numbers are excellent. Shreve, Cosart, and maybe even Gose (he’s been MIA for awhile; maybe he’s in extended spring training transferring to the mound?) are intriguing prospects, but we’ve got no numbers to go off of yet. And the Schwimer/Rosenberg duo looks like they could move quickly as potential set-up men.
Oh, and realized I forgot to mention Carpenter. The first stint in Reading has me scared that he lacks the stuff to be any more than a #5 at best; methinks he’s headed to the bullpen at some point. Brummett looks like a similar situation.
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1) Carrasco – Shutting down AAA hitters so far, solid #2/#3
2) Sampson – Love the GB%, love the projection, the Ks will come
3) Savery – Solid year while focusing on pitching for the first time
4) Drabek – Looks to be recovering well from TJ, next year will tell more
5) Happ – Upper echelon #5, good #4
6) Garcia – Aggressively promoted, probably should have stayed at CLW
7) Knapp – Power arm with good numbers at GCL
8) Worley – Doing what you want a high college pick to do
9) Naylor – Nice start at Lakewood, not so good for CLW
10) Bastardo – Great run in CLW, injury has made it hard to evaluate
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Would be nice to have a feel for the intangibles on these guys. Obviously Drabek has the breeding and a feel for the work needed. Carpenter appears to disregard conditioning needs.
I like that Happ faced great adversity and turned things around –to me that is a plus. Ditto for Savery.
Curious as to which of these guys might become comfortable in relief.
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Well I favor proximity, performance, health & projection in that order… if you are getting close and performing that is pretty good sign to me… projection is last as you are a long way off many injuries, etc can happen along the way to performance…This is my personal opinion and I realize others will differ….I did not look any lower than full season ball… So with that in mind:
I give you the Good:
1) Carassco – His numbers so far at AAA are better than Happ…Happ has been to the show and not been overly impressive…If carassco was in teh show now, I think he would perform better than Happ. BB:SO get better as he moved to AAA.
2) Happ – Carassco beat him by a nose… Happ just needs a couple of strong outings back to back in teh show and I think he would do fine as a #5…we will probably get that chance to find out next year. Had great SO numbers this year, matter of confidence.
3) Savery – struggles early but has been dominant (except for a 1 inning blip) ever since. If he turns it on from this point forward 2010 we have a #3… SO are getting better BB still a bit high but improving.
4) Drabek – he was coming on super strong at Lakewood last year just before the injury…You never want to say that an injury was a good thing, but if this helped him mature and realize he has to be a bit more humble and helps him become a star then it worked out for the best. I hope he goes on to have all-star numbers for many years.
5) Bastardo – Everyone says he can’t… and he keeps proving them wrong…Numbers have been great, shown first sign of struggles at AA with BB, but other than that steller…once fully healthy see what he can do…
6) Carpenter- great season even with struggles at AA. Has shown some bright moments there as well, but fast riser and has shown growth if he can stay healthy
7) Stutes – Outstanding early start at A ball in his first year… ERA below 1 and great SO: BB ratio…
8) Worley – pitching lights out at age 20 in A ball in first year. Great numbers all around, great delivery and model of consistency so far.
9) Escalona- great SO: BB numbers quickly climbing the ranks as a lefty specialist… al a Zagurski…
10) Naylor – Great SO: BB numbers this year and finally looks like he belongs on the list. Hopefully his rise continues and he stays healthy.
Not far off: Castro (young- inconsistent), Garcia (Very young & strong arm – inconsistent, but showing maturity), Brummett (not overpowering, so ceiling is low), German 9great numbers, quick riser as lefty specialist), Cisco & Sampson round out the list for me…
Now for the Bad (for your mocking enjoyment):
1) Outman – oh what could have been… if he pitched better in relief he might be in the Phils line up right now…
2) Benson – still waiting…..
3) Segovia – how many chances do you give a guy…
4) Evangilista – Hello… Can you hear me now?
5) Schlitter – pitching great for the cubettes (0.00 ERA since the trade)
6) Mathieson – 😦
7) Zagurski – 😦 #2
8) Eaton – Not quite the same results Myers had. Welcome to your new retirement league Adam.
9) Smith – still waiting #2…Can we have a do over for the Bobby deal?
10) Correa – where in the world is Hector Correa?
Hope that made ya laugh…
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well thats it! CC is OFF my list!!! new top 3 Gose, drabek, knapp!!!!!!!!!!
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1 Happ
2 Carassco
3 Savery
4 Knapp
5 Naylor
6 Darabek
7 Sampson
8 Garica
9 Gose
10 Worley
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1 – Carlos Carrasco
2 – Kyle Drabek
3 – JA Happ
4 – Joe Savery
5 – Edgar Garcia
6 – Drew Naylor
7 – Tyson Brummett
8 – Jason Knapp
9 – Antonio Bastardo
10 – Mike Stutes
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slate became a late round pick due to his signability….he was projected top 15 rds but that fell due to rumors about wanting too much for his ability. The phillies still went about slot to sign him an from what it looks like now they wont be regretting it.
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Hopeufully Slate gets an oppurtunity in Lakewood next season. Home town kid. They could potentially have two NJ guys next season in Knapp an Slate
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PP Fan,
Just can’t give up the Savery is a bust argument!!!
Making a Carrasco/Savery comparison at this point is basically meaningless since they are on completely difference career paths and are at different stages in their development, age not withstanding.
Carrasco was signed as a 16 year-old and has been pitching professionally for 5 years now. He has throw 563 minor league innings so far, not counting his time in instruction.developmental leagues.
By contrast, Savory was drafted out of college with limited pitching experience and has had 1+ professional seasons and has thrown just 165 innings to date.
But if you want to compare minor league numbers.
Carrasco e.r.a. – 3.86, 1.32 WHIP, and averages .86K/IP.
Savery – 3.81, 1.49, .81K/IP.
As for “stuff” Carrasco throws harder and Savery is more of a groundball, sinker guy. Kind of like comparing Smoltz/Glavine and saying that Smoltz is much better because his “stuff” is better.
Most, if not all, of the ratings I’ve read here have Carrasco listed ahead of Savery so I’m really not sure what your issue is. Who cares if one guy slots as a #2/3 and one guy as a #3/4 as long as both become effective pitchers?
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3up3kkk – please point out where in my statement i said that savery is a bust. at any point in any comment i made at any time on this blog?
i have never said that or even hinted that he is a bust. as a matter of fact, i said above i think that thre is a high chance he will be a mlb’er. all i am trying to understand (and i am truly trying to understand it) is what is causing people to see Savery as a #3 (or higher) starter in mlb.
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We have both been around here long enough to know your feelings regarding Savery’s future potential. If you want to dance around the word “bust” that’s fine, I’ll agree that you’ve never termed him a bust and see his upside as a fringy #5.
AS for my take on his potential, IF he refines his slider/curve and improves his location, he is a big,strong, LHP with a low 90’s fastball and a plus changup who will keep the ball on the ground. Add in his reputation for showing good poise on the mound and being an above average athlete. Does that make him a #2/3 pitcher at the ML level?
Savery reminds me of a Mike Hampton type pitcher with the obvious difference being their starting ages (Hampton signed out of HS) and height…
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Correa was suspended for violating team rules, don’t know when he’s coming back.
Hopefully that clears up some confusion.
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Nails – Segovia isn’t even in the Phils org. He’s pitching for the Harrisburg Senators (Nationals AA) and getting shelled.
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again this year READING is the place pitchers go to die
any ideas????
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Has anyone heard anything about Mathieson? Is he done? Does he still have potential as a setup/closer?
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Late entry. Wednesday morning.
“Major league prospect” may mean different things to different folks but to me it means based on performance rather than hype or guesstimated potential. Potential is too hard to evaluate with any degree of accuracy so I need the pitcher to show me on the field and at one of the top three levels before I can even consider him a big league prospect.
I know that many of your rave over Carrasco’s potential but I do not. Certainly he is a prospect to make the majors but I see him as a middle of the rotation guy. He is just too inconcistent after five years in the system. (He got lit up yesterday at Lehigh.)
J. Happ is also a prospect having proven on the field that he can pitch. How good he will be in the Majors is uncertain and it seems the Phillies have their doubts about him since with all his numbers, he can’t replace Kyle Kendrick who is nothing but a #4 or #5. Still Happ has to be considered a prospect, so that’s two. Carasco and Happ in whatever order you like. But neither guy looks like a star in the making.
As for the rest, if you are judging these guys by what they do on the field and not by that always-elusive “potential”, there really isn’t anybody else at Clearwater, Reading or Lehigh.
Brummet has failed at Reading and he is getting older by the day. Garcia hasn’t shown anything at Reading. Naylor looks good at times but has had 10 starts at Clearwater with six bad ones. And he’s getting along too.
I thought Carpenter was coming back strong his second time at Reading but he got laid out his last start. So I will have to see how he rebounds from that.
We can’t even begin to judge Bastardo until he gets another half year at Reading in 2009. His injury set him back.
Savery is nowhere near ready to be judged. Monasterios seems to have enough to be a middle of the rotation guy but his injury set him back so we’ll have to wait until next year to even render a judgement about him. The other kids are too young to be evaluated. They need to do well at Lakewood, then repeat it at Clearwater, then repeat that at Reading before you have any idea who has a shot to make a major league roster, let alone be a top of the rotation pitcher. Right now, I don’t see anyone in the system that fits that designation – although one or two guys might later on viz Drabek and MAYBE Savery. .
So- Happ and Carrasco in whatever order, and better luck next year.
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Joey…by your definition I don’t think any pitcher in professional baseball is a prospect.
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****As for “stuff” Carrasco throws harder and Savery is more of a groundball, sinker guy.****
Savery’s a lefty so the difference in velocity is very minimal. Savery throws pretty well for a lefty.
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NEPP,
I think we are in agreement.
One of the reasons I think that Savery IS a high end prospect is exactly because he is a LHP who sits consistantly in the low 90’s.
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A nice AA start by Garcia at AA last night against the best hitting team in the Eastern League. Yes, he has had some clunkers there, but the kid is 20 years old. I think some are being overly harsh based on what he has done since promotion to Reading. To me, the age and CLW performance speak for themselves:
8 – 2 W-L for a not great team; 3.97 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; 7.9 K/9; only 2.3 BB/9.
To do this at A+ level at only age 20 is phenomenal.
EACH of these stats is better than Savery on the same team, and Savery is 2 years older. The stats are comparable to Brumett and a little worse than Carpenter (ERA quite a bit worse, Ks better), both of whom are 3 years older on the same team.
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Joey are you serious with that post? So in your mind Monasterios and Carrasco are on the same level? I’ve seen you bash the majority of our pitching prospects quite a few times on here, only to talk about how highly you value Monasterios. Just seems odd.
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Joey, I think you said the same thing about Carrasco as everyone else – he’s a #3. His ceiling is a #2, but that’s the difference between projection (#3) and ceiling (#2). As for his AAA performance, one bad start does not cancel out three good starts. He’s not even 21.5 yrs old and he’s doing very well at AAA. How can you not be positive on him?
I agree that performance is important, but it is not the only thing. Garcia is a case in point. If a guy has an ace upside, like Drabek, I will rate him higher than a guy a level or two ahead of him who has a #4 upside.
You make a nice point about Brummett getting older by the day. I hope that’s not happening to any of our other prospects…;)
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it seems that pp fan just posts on here to get into arguments with people.
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I’ve been a big backer of Monasterios. He is a ground ball pitcher who would fit nicely on a small park pitching staff. But he is having trouble coming back from an injury. Right now too many of his pitches are going in the air and that is a problem for a low strike out pitcher. Let’s see what Drabek does in his start tonight in Auburn NY. If he goes on 5 days rest that would mean he would open up the Crosscutters last home stand on the 26th. Good game to check out. Right now you got to like Happ, and Carrasco, at AAA, Garcia at AA; Savery and Naylor at High A; Sampson and Stutes at Low A; Drabek at A Short Season and Slate and Knapp in the rookie league.
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Just an aside—–Outman is back in relief–moved up to AAA–Just one run in 3 appearances covering 6 innings.
Cardenas over 350 in AA
Spencer 339 at high A
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Drabek pitching well so far for Williamsport. The Auburn play by play guy said he is hitting 92 on the gun there after four innings of shut out one hit ball .
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Joey’s last name is Monasterios. Joey I respect everything you say although I disagree with everything, but seriously dude what is the love fest with Monasterios, he has a decent fastball with no breaking stuff to speak of.
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I wish they would move Monasterios to the ‘pen. That’s where he’s going to be if he makes it. The sooner the better for him.
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