2022 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information

Other Stuff

It is that time of year when everyone becomes a general manager (or president of baseball operations) and begins recommending or endorsing roster moves to prepare for the next season.  This annual exercise includes guessing how many and which free agents will be pursued and how much money is available to sign them.  This will be pinned on the site for a couple weeks.

The sections below will break down how I arrived at how much money the Phillies have available below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold and what type of players they might target during free agency.

Until then, here is the consolidation of those figures

  • 2023 CBT threshold ……………………………. $232,000,000 (for 40 players)
  • Sunk Costs:          $   20,416,667 (includes 14 of the 40-man spots)
  • Guarantees:         $115,834,615 (6 contracts to lock up 5 players)
  • Options:                $   11,350,000 (1 yes/2 no of three)
  • Arbitration:          $   23,100,000 (6 of 7 tendered)
  • Pre-Arb:                 $     7,200,000 (10 at league minimum)
  • Total Costs:          $177,901,282
  • Available Under the CBT threshold ………. $54,098,718

The Phillies, who aren’t likely to shy away from paying the Luxury Tax penalty for players they think will improve their chance at a world series trophy, will probably look to sign a shortstop and 3 pitchers, one a starter.  They will also likely consider adding some upgrades via trades.

In the coming days, decisions by players and the organization will determine which vacancies will need to be filled on the active roster, the 40-man roster, and the upper minors.

Sunk Costs

These are the costs the organization incurs that are not directly related to player acquisition and payroll.  They are predictable and recurring.

The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold sets the maximum that a team can spend before penalties are levied, the Luxury Tax.  The amount is agreed upon by the players and owners as part of the (CBA).  For the 2023 season, the CBT limit is $232,000,000.

The Phillies, and all teams, will have expenditures that do not have specific players attached to them.  These costs do not count against salary but do count against the CBT threshold.  These will effectively lower the dollars available to sign players.

The first is the team’s portion of player benefits.  This is determined by dividing the total payroll throughout the major leagues and dividing by thirty (the number of franchises).  This figure goes up each year.  Each team’s estimated contribution for the 2023 season is $16,500,000.

The second is the estimate for the minor league players on the 40-man roster.  That’s 14 players.  The estimate for the 2023 season is $2,250,000.

The newest is the team’s contribution to the “zero-to-three-year” bonus pool.  The Phillies’ (and each team’s) share amounts to $1,666,667.

So, that’s an estimate of $20,416,667 that counts against the CBT threshold and doesn’t add a player to the active roster.  That bite out of the CBT threshold leaves $211,583,333 under the threshold to fill 26 active roster spots.

Guaranteed Contracts

The Phillies go into the offseason with six players having guaranteed contracts for the 2023 season.

  1. Bryce Harper enters the 5th year of a 13-year contract ($330M (19-31)). It’ll be his age 30 season.  2023 salary is $27,538,462.  Luxury Tax salary is $25,384,615.
  2. Zack Wheeler enters the 4th year of a 5-year contract ($118M (20-24)). It’ll be his age 33 season.  2023 salary is $24,500,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $23.6M.
  3. JT Realmuto enters the 3rd year of a 5-year contract ($115.5M (21-25)). It’ll be his age 31 season.  2023 salary is $23,875,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $23.1M.
  4. Nick Castellanos enters the 2nd year of a 5-year contract ($100M (22-26)).  It’ll be his age 31 season.  2023 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $20M.
  5. Kyle Schwarber enters the 2nd year of a 4-year contract ($79M (22-25)). It’ll be his age 30 season.  2023 salary is $20,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $19.75M.
  6. Scott Kingery enters the 6th year of a 6-year contract ($24M (18-23)+24-26 opts)). It’ll be his age 29 season.  2023 salary is $8,250,000.  Luxury Tax salary is $4M.

These six contracts account for a total salary of $124,163,462 but only $115,834,615 counts against the CBT threshold.  Unless Kingery’s status changes, these six contracts count as five players against the 40-man roster.

The contracts and costs stated above leave the Phillies $95,748,718 under the CBT threshold to fill 21 active roster spots.

Player Options

The Phillies have three players with options for the 2023 season –  Aaron Nola, Jean Segura, and Zach Eflin.

  1. Aaron Nola has a club option for $16,000,000 with a $4.25M buyout.  It is his age 30 season.  2023 salary would be $16,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary would be  $11.35M.
  2. Jean Segura has a club option for $17,000,000 with a $1M buyout.  It is his age 33 season.  2023 salary would be $17,000,000.  Luxury Tax salary would be $14.333M.
  3. Zach Eflin has a mutual option for $15,000,000 with a $150K buyout.  It is his age 29 season.  2023 salary would be $15, 000,000.  Luxury Tax salary would be $10.275M.

It’s anybody’s guess what the Phillies will do, but barring an extension, it’s safe to assume that the Phillies pick up their club option on Nola.  And, while I would at least consider picking up Segura’s option (he was their second-best hitter when I started this), I expect the Phillies to decline it.  And, unless the Phillies expect Eflin to be able to pitch as a starter for a full season, I think they will decline to pick up his option.  Now, it’s possible they offer less money either as a starter/reliever, but I would think Eflin would rather test free agency in a starter-only role.

The buyouts for Segura and Eflin amount to $1,150,000 but I’ve noticed the past couple of years that when the buyouts are paid determines which season (and maybe even if) they are counted.  The Phillies would benefit from having them count against 2022 since they are already over the threshold.  Paying them against 2023 makes it a little more difficult to avoid the penalty for going over the threshold for two consecutive years (if that even matters to them).

So assuming that only Nola’s option is exercised and that the buyouts don’t count against 2023, that means that $11,350,000 will count against the CBT threshold and leaves the Phillies with $84,398,718 under the threshold to fill 20 active roster spots.

I’ll discuss long-term contracts (LTC) and extension possibilities later.

Arbitration Eligible Players

The Phillies have 7 players who are arbitration eligible.  Two are facing their third and final year of arbitration, one is facing his third year of four, three are entering arbitration for the first time, and one is entering arbitration as a super-two.  Official service time figures are in parentheses.  MLBTR projected salary estimates are included.

  1. Rhys Hoskins (5.053) had a 2022 salary of $7,700,000 and enters his final year of arbitration, going into his age 30 season.  Arbitration estimate $12,600,000.
  2. Jose Alvarado (5.082) had a 2022 salary of $1,900,000 and enters his final year of arbitration, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate $3,200,000.
  3. Seranthony Dominguez (4.131) had a 2022 salary of $727,500 and enters his third of four arb years, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate $2,000,000.
  4. Ranger Suarez (3.112) had a 2022 salary of $730,000 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $3,500,000.
  5. Sam Coonrod (3.078) had a 2022 salary of $717,500 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 30 season.  Arbitration estimate $800,000.
  6. Yairo Munoz (3.003) had a salary of at least $700,000 and enters his first of three arbitration years, going into his age 28 season.  Arbitration estimate $1,000,000.
  7. Edmundo Sosa (2.140) had a salary of $715,600 and enters his first of four arbitration years, going into his age 27 season.  Arbitration estimate $1,000,000.

Hoskins will likely receive an offer over eight figures.  His agent is Boras who will likely submit a higher request.  But, too high and the arbiter will surely choose the Phillies’ lower, fair submission.  Alvarado, Dominguez, and Suarez will certainly be tendered offers. Coonrod would probably accept any number just to be tendered.  His projected arb salary is not that much higher league minimum.  He has a big arm, the Phillies like big arms.  He’ll likely be retained one way or the other.  One of Munoz and Sosa is made redundant by the other and Maton. Sosa sounds like Dombrowski’s Plan X if he doesn’t get his shortstop this winter.  Munoz is likely the odd man out and non-tendered.

That’s $23,100,000 if they sign these six probables at the estimates above.  That would leave an estimated $61,298,718 under the CBT threshold to fill 14 active roster spots.

(Note that these guys don’t all have to remain on the active roster, they can be optioned.)

Pre-Arbitration, Cost-Controlled Players

The minimum salary in 2022 was $700,000.  The Phillies had agreements with most of their pre-arbitration players for slightly more than that amount.  The minimum salary in 2023 is $720,000.  The pre-arbitration players on the active roster will receive that amount or a little above depending on how the Phillies calculate their raises.

A good portion of the remaining fourteen spots on the active roster will be filled with these affordable, cost-controlled, pre-arbitration players.

It seems reasonable to expect that as many as ten pre-arbitration players could be tendered and placed on the active roster.  That would be a minimum of $7,200,000 against the CBT threshold.  That leaves the Phillies with $54,098,718 under the threshold to fill 4 active roster spots.

Free Agent Targets

At this point, the Phillies still have 4 spots to fill on the active roster.  These openings are likely filled by free agents.  The targets most likely sought through free agency are a shortstop, a leadoff hitter, a mid-rotation or better starting pitcher, a closer, and another back-end reliever.

I am all but certain that the Phillies will sign a free-agent shortstop.  Kris Bryant was their white whale last season.  When he signed with Colorado, I believe the Phillies quickly signing Schwarber and Castellanos was a knee-jerk reaction.  I refuse to believe that they went into the offseason intent on signing two free agent outfielders who were awful defensively.  I think their target this year is Trea Turner and that they will full-court press him and his agent and do everything to sign him.  I think Plan B could be a shortstop from within and a pivot to LHP Carlos Rodon to bolster the rotation.

Actually, I don’t think a Turner signing rules out a signing of Rodon.  That leaves 2 relief pitchers.  The available top closers (by saves) are Edward Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Taylor Rogers.  Other available top relievers include Anthony Bass, Adam Ottavino, Robert Suarez, Rafael Montero, Matt Wisler, Michael Givens, Trevor Williams, Corey Knebel, Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin.  I’m sure Phillies’fans won’t care how well Robertson and Hand placed on some lists.

So, since money is not a deterrent, let’s go get Turner, Rodon, Diaz, and Moore.  That’s easily over a half-billion in salary, but it’s not our money.  Haha.

Realistically, let’s assume that if they sign Turner, they seek a pitcher who would fall between Nola and Eflin talent-wise.  Those might include Sonny Gray, Luis Severino, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly, Chris Bassitt, Zack Grenke, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, Jameson Taillon, Rich Hill, Zach Davies, and Carlos Carrasco.  One of these guys should complement our rotation well.

There are a lot of relievers available.  I hope they bring in a couple who can throw strikes and avoid walking batters.  Guys like Edwin Diaz, Anthony Bass, Adam Ottavino, Rafael Montero, Matt Wisler, Erasmo Ramirez, Trevor Williams, Seth Lugo, David Price, and Andrew Chafin would fit the bill.

Trades

The Phillies don’t have to rely on free agency to fill out their active roster or to upgrade other positions.  Their number one trade chip on the active roster is probably Alec Bohm because of his youth, team control, and up-and-coming bat.

I think the Phillies will try to trade Nick Castellanos this winter.  I admit that my feelings toward Castellanos softened during the playoffs.  But, when your $330M teammate can go to Triple-A on a rehab assignment and you won’t, well that just doesn’t sit right with me.  The Phillies will have to eat a lot of his salary and maybe toss in a sweetener to keep the dollars down.  But, I would make that a priority.

The Phillies have several younger players who may be attractive to other teams.  Players who the Phillies might like to DFA but would hope to trade rather than risk losing to waivers.

Rule 5 Candidates

The Phillies have a couple players whom they will want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft.  They will weigh this need against the need to have 40-man roster spots available during the regular season.  The Phillies “wasted” a couple spots on players who were not going to help the team during the season, and might not ever help.

The Phillies have quite a few players who were eligible last year and will have another three dozen players eligible this year.  Prominent names to be considered include – Erik Miller, Andrew Schultz, Johan Rojas.  Players who are eligible for a second time and who might also be considered might include – Michael  Plassmeyer.

I wrote a more extensive article on Rule 5 players in the organization here – https://phuturephillies.com/2022/10/15/phillies-rule-5-class-2022/

Free Agents (Outgoing)

The Phillies have 5 players entering free agency at the end of the season.  They are – Noah Syndergaard, Corey Knebel, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, and David Robertson.  The salary saved here is unimportant.  The sections above show what the Phillies are spending as the roster is filled out.

If you insist on calculating saved salary by departing contracts, don’t forget that the Phillies had to pay full-season salaries to Jeurys Familia (less the pro-rated minimum salary since he was picked up by Boston), Didi Gregorius, and Odubel Herrera after releasing them.  Plus, Jean Segura and Zach Eflin will become free agents when their options are not picked up.  And, Johan Camargo has already declared free agency.

The total of the Phillies’ portion of all these contracts is about $75,529,369.  This is quite a bit more than the actual estimated amount available under the threshold of $54,098,718.

I wrote a more extensive article on ALL free agents in the organization here – https://phuturephillies.com/2022/10/15/phillies-free-agent-classs-2022/ ‎

Long-Term Contracts (LTC)

My guess is that they would like to extend Hoskins now, buying out his last arb-year, and Nola next year before his option runs out.

I’ve seen all the opinions that the Phillies should trade Hoskins.  It’s a suggestion I made a few years ago, so I’m not averse to such a move.  But, the first basemen hitting free agency this year are not an attractive lot.  Those who could duplicate Hoskins’ production have to opt-out of current contracts and would cost much more than Hoskin’s arb year or they are not very good at all.  So I see three options.  Extend Hoskins.  Pay a premium for a big-name free agent.  Promote from within.

I wrote a more extensive article on this subject here –  https://phuturephillies.com/2022/10/27/trade-hoskins-or-trade-hoskins/ ‎

In any case, I expect Boras to be difficult and no LTC.  Pivot to Nola and start his extension after the completion of his option year to keep the AAV down this year.  Actually, there’s no reason not to extend Nola this year if the extension starts at the conclusion of his current contract.  And, I guess you have to trade Hoskins before the deadline unless you think you can attach a QO to him and don’t care whether he accepts or declines.

The Roster

Including players on the 60-Day Injured List, the Phillies have 47 players on their 40-man roster. They’ll have to make room for the guys they protect from the Rule 5 Draft.  And later, any free agent acquisitions will force more players off the 40-man roster.  Expect these moves to start after the world series ends.

Qualifying Offers

This year’s qualifying offer (QO) is $19,650,000.  The Phillies have no players whom they would have to consider offering a QO this offseason.

However, signing a free agent with a QO attached to him would cost the Phillies draft picks and international bonus money.

Teams that surpass the CBT threshold ($230,000,000 this year) are subject to the heftiest penalties.  The Phillies were one of six teams that went over the threshold.  The others were Boston, the Dodgers, both New York teams, and San Diego.

In addition to paying a CBT tax, a team signing a free agent with a QO attached would forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

If one of these teams were to sign a second free agent with a QO attached, it will forfeit the next highest available draft picks – in this example, its third and sixth-highest picks.

Other Random Facts

In addition to the free agents above, I would like to acquire a real, glove-first, right-handed hitting centerfielder to platoon with or backup  Brandon Marsh.  I am not comfortable with our current backup CF options.  Johan Rojas would be perfect in this role.  I hope he continues to hit in Arizona so that the Phillies can consider this strategy.  He should also be able to play the corners to give those guys a break, too.

The Phillies are rumored to have paid minor league players a larger salary than required (or agreed to) for staying on the IL or just being in the minors this season.  (I saw this on social media from a reliable reporter, but can’t remember the particulars or all the players mentioned.  Some of you may have seen it.)  Depending on the accuracy of the report, how widespread the practice is, and if it continues could alter the amount of salary and AAV in a way that the public (that’s us) will not know.

A Few Upcoming Important Dates

  • November 6: Trading resumes, the day after the World Series ends
  • November 10: Deadline to make offers to eligible former players who became FA
  • November 20: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers
  • November 18 or 21: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before Rule 5 Draft
  • December 1: Deadline to offer 2023 contracts to controlled players on the 40
  • December 9: Rule 5 Draft

And, so it begins …

Transactions

11/06/2022 – RHP Corey Knebel elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Noah Syndergaard elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP David Robertson elected free agency
11/06/2022 – RHP Kyle Gibson elected free agency
11/06/2022 – LHP Brad Hand elected free agency

 

382 thoughts on “2022 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information”

    1. I like Correa as a baseball player but I don’t think that he fits this team’s culture. To me Correa vs Turner is similar to Manny vs Bryce. Both great talents but clearly Bryce and Turner fit our city and team culture better than Manny and Correa.

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      1. Agree that Turner is probably a better fit but don’t think it’s as big an issue as the Harper/Machado decision because Harper will remain the face of the team.

        Adding another star player isn’t the same as adding the 1st star player.

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      2. basically by “culture” you mean race.. can be honest here.. Mr baco likes to keep things nilla leaning… WS was basically North America vs South America

        i can’t be the only one who see’s this… do i agree with it.. ? no… do i think it’s rampant? no but it is leaning/verging in that manner where the optics certainly point to it being a decision time and time again that the choice is made as the fanbase will buy more shirseys of players they are willing to put on their backs

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        1. You know, when I wrote my comment, I had a gut feeling that there would be a clown that made it about race. What a stupid comment SD. No, by “culture” I do NOT mean race. If I meant race, I would have said that. The Phillies have many players of Latin decent that absolutely fit the team culture. their two top reliever and #3 starter are Latin and fit the culture perfectly. Segura and Sosa fit perfectly in the infield. My comment had NOTHING to do with race. Correa is not a team first guy. He has the reputation as a selfish player looking to maximize his payday. I don’t think that he is a fit.

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          1. I knew exactly what you meant by “team/clubhouse culture.” It’s a shame somebody had to go there. Every team wants to win. It doesn’t matter what color you are. Every fan wants to win.

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          2. To me, it’s more about style of play. People forget but it took years for fans to embrace Mike Schmidt because he was very reserved and didn’t appear to be trying. Meanwhile, fans loved Bowa because he was a hair on fire type of player.

            Obviously Schmidt was the better player but it was about style of play. Same reason Harper was a better choice than Machado. Has nothing to do with race.

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            1. Just saw how Logan O’ Hoppe finished his AA season. They gave up a lot to get marsh. I hope he can cut his strikeouts down, (and not jump as early on balls against the wall.). Would Guthrie or Vierling done that much worse than marsh?

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          3. I didn’t think that, at all, v1. I thought the way they play the game is what you referenced, and their reputations as team player/clubhouse guys. Are there race issues in our country? Absolutely, but not on the Baseball team, and thankfully, not on this forum.

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  2. So we are now down to 42 players on 40 man roster, 6 of these were on 60 Day IL when season ended. Could be about 10 of the 42 being DFA,d.

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  3. I actually think Robertson could be back in a middle relief role. I think Hoskins will be here next here and could sign an extension depending on the numbers. I also expect DeLaCruz to play lots of 1B next year in the upper minors. He has had a very good year and has surged up our prospect list. Rojas is clearly not ready for the majors yet and will be a full time OF once he earns the nod. I expect Casty back, as I’ve said. I don’t expect Bohm to be traded either as he is cheap and really improved this year on O and D. I think Vierling, Sosa, Maton and Stubbs could all be back next year on the bench. This team is very close, I don’t see many changes other than a SS like Turner replacing Segura. Putting Turner somewhere in the top 3 in the order with Hoskins at 5 really adds to the lineup.

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    1. Think the fans want better D at first base, but Hoskins fielded . 990. Would Darrick Hall be an upgrade? He might have more power than Rhys.

      If they sign a SS, can story play 2b. 15 mill is alot to pay for a 275 hitter with limited power.

      Castellanis is poised for a monster year as would Syderguard.

      De la Cruz stuck out close to 50% in AFL. Don’t think they can absorb another of that type.

      Having a healthy Harper would allow him to play rf.

      Both Casty and Schwarb scaled avg in rf.

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    1. Assume Turner gets QO by the Dodgers….and the Phillies sign him, or any player QOed this week, and being over the threshold as a large market competitive balance tax payor. they then will lose their 2nd round pick, along with their 5th round pick and will have to deduct $1M in international monies. That is the price you pay to be a contender.

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      1. That’s why I’d just pay a couple million more a year for the better player in Correa. The guy basically stumbled to a 5-win season in Minnesota.

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        1. Forgot all about that…Correa cannot be QOed this time.
          That is something to think about if keeping draft picks becomes an important topic for the Phillies.

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          1. Right! I know there were rumors about Bogaerts, because DD knows him from his time in Boston. And I know Bryce has been complimentary of Turner. But, wouldn’t you rather have the guy who is younger, better, and won’t cost draft capital? When you realize we spent $28M on Didi and Segura this year, jumping at most another $7M for Correa seems like a no-brainer.

            Turner has a high BABIP due to his speed. He plays an ok defense and covers some ground because of his speed. Guys who have value that relies on speed, I don’t really want to sign as they hit 30 years old.

            There are other factors, like loss of the shift to consider. Do some guys get shifted on more than others? Who will benefit most by loss of shift? That’s for the analytics department to figure out. But as I digress here, Anthony Rizzo gets shifted the most and hits most of his balls into the shift. If he opts out, he would be someone to consider and then move on from hoskins. But that’s fir a different conversation.

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          2. Problem with Correa is he is always hurt. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 ft pole. Yes he’s good when he plays.

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            1. That is true over his 8 years…but it was that three year stretch …2017 (22-years old), 2018 and 2019 that he really struggled with injuries ……with the pandemic truncated schedule of ’20 and the last two years…135 games or more… he has remained fairly healthy.
              Maybe he has learned to take better care of himself in the off-season and thru the season.
              https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml

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            2. I see today , concerning Correa….the Cubs will be pushing hard for him and set him as their target one in free agency.
              And as it happens, they have plenty of $$$ under the threshold, I doubt now Phillies will engage in any bidding wars with them..

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            3. Agree. The challenge for the Fightings – making 2023 MORE like 2008 and 2007 – as opposed to 1994 – meaning build off the breakout season.

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  6. Diaz back to the Mets for 5 years and $102M is going to be one of the worst contracts in the history of baseball.

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    3. That is absolutely ridiculous and and it’s good that the Mets did that because they will regret it. Diaz also has a full no trade clause. Diaz has to be a 3 WAR closer every single year just to be worth the contract.

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  7. Chris Bassitt declined his $19M mutual option, becoming a FA. He will be 34 in February but he posted a 3.2 WAR. This is his last chance to get paid.

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  8. I’m a bit surprised that the possibility of a QO to Eflin is not being mentioned. It’s risky, but there’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract.

    If anything, the Phillies should exercise their part of the mutual option for 2023, and see if Eflin is willing to exercise his part of the option ($15MM, IIRC).

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    1. Can’t spend $15 million on a guy who has Eflin’s health issues. Can’t trust him as part of the rotation because of the knees and he’s not a back of the rotation guy with his “stuff”.

      Would be great if they could work out some deal with significant incentives for innings pitched or appearances but he’s not someone you can trust to be a key part of the pitching staff because of his chronic knee issues.

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      1. Eflin shared in WS that ‘he sees’ himself as a starter. If that position / stance is concrete, welcome to the Cubs (or another Division 2 club), and thanks for your service.

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        1. Why is this surprising? Starters usually get paid more than relievers. And since it’s his first time in FA, he’s looking to get as much money as he can, which I don’t have a problem with. If the Cubs want to give him the money, so be it. If the Royals want to give him a 4 year deal, I’m sure Eflin would be willing to go there too.

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  9. Spitballing spitballs…

    I like Hoskins but … his defense really hurts. I never realized how much until the playoffs, that said, with the DH we can minimize it. With another defensive replacement type player .. anyways .. what about :

    Harper to 1st (yes unlikely)
    Maton to 1st in late innings
    Segura to 1st base if option picked up
    Sosa to 1st base full time if SS signed

    You have to trade castellanos or Hoskins in the scenario but the improved D could make it worth while for the loss in power. Now we know 1B is a power position but you have a Catcher doing that, so … you technically just Swapping those guys vs having plus power at both.

    Again spitballing. Hoskins Defense needs to improve if he’s going to stay

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    1. Defensive options only help if the manager is willing to utilize them.

      For whatever reason, Thomson considered Rhys and Castellanos basically untouchable defensively. Both in the regular season and post season. Schwarber and Bohm got defensive replacements regularly, sometimes even Stott. But Nick and Hoskins had their spots on lockdown. Even when Bryce was on the IL and we had Hall ready to man 1B, he would DH instead.

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  10. I know a lot of people want to make changes, but I could see the Phils of keeping much the same.

    Hoskins will likely remain as he is better than almost anyone else available.

    Segura has a really good chance of returning unless they are going full in on another middle infielder. But Segura is solid with average to slightly above average offense.

    A leadoff hitter would be nice, but they may need to go a year without bringing another one in. They do have a few players who could step up at some point to be that player (Stott?? Rojas??)

    Most likely changes will be a top end starter and at least 2 relievers who profile as closer and or set up.

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  11. Bob D, I think it is almost a definite that the team does not exercise Segura’s option. Maybe, if they fail to land Turner or Bogaerts, they re-sign him for less, but I believe they are full in on acquiring one of the SSs. I think the SP we get is more Nathan Eovaldi than Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon

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  12. Jim, I am in awe of the amount of work and thoroughness to which you put into this report. How lucky are we/I.

    This season was a heck of a ride and I was glad to take it with you and the team on the field to end the season. That said I don’t want to see Segura back. I wouldn’t mind Eflin on a 3/$24 if he’s ok with his new role in the BP. I think that role is the most reasonable way to keep him healthy.

    I can’t wait to see what DD does. He has my trust to get it figured out.

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  13. As far as the starting rotation goes, I’d work towards the following objectives this off-season:

    1 I’d look to add 3-4 years to Nola’s contract via a fair, market-based extension, ie, I wouldn’t overpay but willing to pay fair market value for him.

    2 I’d look to add a 3-4 starting pitcher type preferably on a 1 year contract but willing to go 2 years but no more. (If the SS pursuit doesn’t pan out, I’d consider Verlander here on a 2 year deal – clearly better than a 3-4 type). With three spots taken for the next several years (Nola, Wheeler, Suarez), and the stable of prospects on the way, I wouldn’t lock into a 4th starter for more than a year or two.

    3 I’d look to gauge Ranger’s willingness to sign a 4-5 year contract in the spirit of what the Braves have done with many of their young players.

    So I’d start the season as follows: Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Free Agent, and Falter, with Painter, McGarry, Sanchez, Plassmeyer, and Abel waiting in the wings.

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  14. Who is the better add to the Phillies, with respect to winning playoff games. The team is good enough to get to the playoffs, i hope & I’m sure DD will focus on such upgrades:

    Trea Turner
    Or
    Carlos Rondon?

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      1. So if we add Rodon to a 4 or 5 year deal, who do you trade or move to the bullpen if and when 2 of Painter, Abel, and/or McGarry are ready? Do you let Nola walk after ‘23?

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        1. I’d keep Nola until painter is do to be resigned. Average a market rate/overpay contract to Nola with painter’s cheap producing contract. If you get that probably, you can trade a top proven veteran player for parts needed. With the way Thomson manages, might make sense to move Mcagarry to pen

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        2. Every year a team needs 5, 6, 7, 8 or more starters. So you let the prospects push the issue and force a move. Chances are one could be late season bullpen arm for the rest of the year or even move Suarez into pen. But I would be fine with Rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Falter/Plassmeyer, Rondon or Verlander until the Painter/Able/McGarry forces the issue. In 2023 Nola is in last year with Wheeler 1 more year afterwards.

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          1. I don’t agree with this, and if you look at the 2019 Astros, they won 107 games and started Verlander (34), Cole (33), Miley (33), Peacock (15), Grienke (10), Valdez (8), McHugh (8). Valdez had a 5.86 ERA.

            In 2020, Astros let Cole and Miley walk. They rolled the dice with McCullers coming back from injury.

            If the Phillies feel that Painter is close, they’ll have a stopgap pitcher like Falter in the rotation. And there’s absolutely no way that the Phillies are getting Verlander after he just won a title with Houston.

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        3. Only Painter looks like a sure fire major league starter at this point. Abel and McGarry both still have work to do to get to that level. Nola will get extended for sure.

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    2. Team’s OPS in the entire playoffs was .689 with a .211 batting average. In the World Series OPS was .580 with a .163 batting average.

      Post season ERA was 3.24 with 2 of the 3 worst ERA’s belonging to Nola and Alvarado. Assuming those 2 are going to be key parts of the 2023 rotation/bullpen getting another starter isn’t going to make them a better playoff team. In the new format, the #4 starter will pitch maybe 2 games in the entire playoffs.

      What they need the arms for is to become better than an 87-win team to get into the playoffs. To get past the top teams in the playoffs, they need to hit better or at least, more consistently in key spots.

      They need some additional reliable bullpen arms but improving the offense and defense is where they need to focus resources.

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    3. Turner is, depending on the length of contract. This is a guy with speed and power who almost led the league in hits two years in a row.

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    4. Both Players went to NC State interestingly. Both drafted in 2014 Rodon 3rd overall and Turner 14th overall…

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    3. Mutual options almost never gets picked up.

      And I’ve said this before, when it comes to a player looking to get paid for the first time, money (i.e. extra years) trumps loyalty.

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  16. Thanks, Murray, my bad! $16M, you are correct. I thought it was a bargain at $18M, so certainly happy about that.

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  17. Well no LTC offer for Nola…so acouple of options fro the team, they can let it play out for 2023 and offer a QO to him for 2024, or try for another LTC with him at some point mid-way thru 2023… or like Diaz with the Mets , get it done immediately after the WS next season

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    1. Nola has all the leverage here. He’s 1 year away from FA and he just posted 6 WAR. As long as he stays healthy and comes close to say 5 WAR, he’s going to get seriously paid. If I were him, I’m not giving any crazy discounts. 5 years, $140M is the minimum offer.

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      1. Yes he does…..he has leverage.
        That is why I cannot understand why the team, at least, to show some goodwill… offer him a LTC like the Yankees did with Judge 8 months ago.
        I guess it can still happen as both sides talk this off-season.

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      2. Nola was very reasonable on his original contract and I expect that to continue. Agree that the deal will probably be 5 years, minimum, probably with a substantial ($10 million) buy-out and option ($25 million) for the 6th year, the contract will be for $25-28 million AAV. I think this gets done sometime before the season starts, most likely after they are done signing their other free agents.

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        1. I’ve posted this before. The Phillies are going to use Joe Musgrove’s extension as the comp for a new deal with Aaron Nola this offseason.
          Musgrove (like Nola) was 29 YO and a year away from free agency when the Padres gave him a 5/100M deal. Nola’s been a little better than Mysgrove over the past couple of seasons. I’d expect Dombrowski and Nola agree to 5/110M.

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          1. There’s absolutely no way that Nola will sign for 5 years, $110M. If I was his agent, I would laugh, and then advise Nola not to take that deal. Wheeler got 5 years, $118M and Nola is way more established (and healthy) than Wheeler was.

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            1. LOL. You’re comparing apples to oranges. Wheeler got his money on the open market. If Nola wants free agent money (with multiple teams bidding on him), he’ll need to pitch (and risk an arm injury) in 2023.
              I didn’t want to call you out on your 5/140M minimum offer, but since you’re so adamant … I’ll bookmark your post, and we can circle back to it if/when Nola signs this winter.

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            2. Go ahead, bookmark my post. I stand by what I said. There’s no reason for him to take a below market deal, when he’s 1 year away from FA.

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            3. You keep missing the point. Its not a below market deal. I just gave you Musgrove as the “market deal” for a 29 YO TOR SP one year out from free agency. Tell me what other SP got a 5/140M contract a year before reaching free agency.

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            4. Joe Musgrove was playing for his hometown Padres, so he wanted to stay in SD. He got 5 years, $100M, full no trade for the first 4 years, and limited no trade (block 13 teams) for his final year. He also gets a hotel suite on road trips. He’s made 1 AS game (this season) and in 7 years, he’s posted 10.8 WAR. He’ll be 30 when his FA contract kicks in next season.

              Aaron Nola has made 1 AS game, but he’s finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting twice. In 8 years, he’s posted a WAR of 29.9. Aaron Nola will be a FA in 2024, when he’ll be close to 31.

              So let’s see, Musgrove averaged 1.54 WAR/year and Nola’s average is a robust 3.74 WAR/year.

              Does anybody else think Nola is going to take 5 years/$110M? Or is he going to take his chances and enter FA?

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            5. So your first point/post was Nola held all the leverage, and 5/140M was the minimum offer he would get. Your position has now changed to Nola will pitch his way into free agency.
              I guess you weren’t able to come up with another pitcher who got that 5/140M (a year before free agency) you originally labeled the “minimum offer”.

              BTW … I can’t tell you with 100% certainty Nola will sign a LTX this offseason. However, I can say Nola has a history of being conservative. He’s already passed on free agency (and the risk of an arm injury) once for the early money/the sure thing.

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            6. Yes, Nola has all the leverage, so there’s no reason for him to accept anything under 5 years, $140M from the Phillies right now. And there’s certainly no way he would take Musgrove’s deal, since I think it’s a lowball offer for somebody who has pitched his way to 30 WAR in his career so far. So If you think that $110M is a fair deal, then yes, I do think Nola will go into FA because he’s not signing for $110M.

              5 years, $140M is a lot of money and there’s literally no discount there for the Phillies. So why would any team give that a year away from FA? The Phillies will roll the dice and see what happens. At the minimum, Nola gets a QO.

              I don’t think signing a team friendly deal is a sign of being conservative, it’s about weighing the risks of playing in a sport where serious injury can happen and could be career enders. We all know that pitching injuries happen all the time. Nola gets $45M and even if the Phillies do or do not pick up his option, he’s able to get to FA at a reasonable age (30/31). It’s a good deal for both sides.

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            7. Very interesting debate going on.
              Looking at last year’s top 12 AAVs it would seem Nola stands a good chance for that hefty pay raise. Each pitcher is under different circumstances based upon age, length of contract, and reputable past performance history.
              Max Scherzer…$43M
              Jacob deGrom…$36M
              Gerrit Cole…..$36M
              Zack Wheeler….$26M
              Marcus Stroman….$25M
              Justin Verlander…$25M
              Patrick Corbin….$23M
              Madison Bumgarner….$23M
              Noah Syndergaard….$21M
              Robbie Ray…..$21M
              Kevin Gausman….$21M
              Charlie Morton….$20M
              ……IMO, Nola can look at least a $26M or $27M AAV for whatever length his contract will finally end up.

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            8. Romus … almost all of those pitchers got those deals as free agents. Morton may be the only exception & his was an extension with the Braves. Can Aaron Nola get a 27M AAV contract on the open market? Yes. I’ve haven’t argued that. I chimed in while you guys talked about a potential LTX this winter. Again … I can’t think of another pitcher to be handed a 5/140M (“minimum”) LTX a year before he could hit the open market. The best comp, and most recent example is Musgrove’s 5/100M. I stand by my 5/110M deal for Nola if/when he inks a LTX this winter.

              Again … pitchers live with threat of arm injury every time out. Aaron Nola:
              A) is not a big guy
              B) has thrown more IPs than almost anyone in MLB the past few seasons
              C) has dodged TJ once with PRP injections

              This is the reason Nola/all pitchers give consideration to smaller amounts of guaranteed money early.

              The funny thing is … I had this same back-and-forth with catch four years ago. He probably remembers expecting a much larger first deal for Nola while he still had 2 (?) more arbitration years left to play out.

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            9. Haha – listen, if he signs for 5/$110m or something in that vicinity it’s a huge coup for the Phillies – so I hope you’re right!!!!!

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          2. I think you’re right that the Phillies will try to use Musgrove as a comp for Nola (why wouldn’t they?), but he isn’t a comp for Nola. Nola, historically, and even last year, was a much more valuable pitcher. Nola has almost 30 WAR through his age 29 season and has the potential for a HOF run (not likely, but definitely possible). Musgrove has 10.8 WAR. That’s a huge difference. And it’s not just the historical difference between the pitchers. Last year, Nola pitched to a 6 WAR and Musgrove was around 3.2. So, that’s where the Phillies will start, but, even being conservative, Nola will want – and deserves – a good deal more. Upon further reflection, I think you’re right that the contract Nola would agreed to will be less than $28 m AAV (although he might get that in free agency), but I don’t think it will be all that much less, perhaps 5 years and $125-135 m ($140m max), again with a sixth year option and substantial buy-out. I could also see the parties agreeing to $24m AAV with a 6 year deal for a total of around $144 m (this, essentially was what Cole Hamels was paid if I remember correctly).

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            2. Haha – listen, if he signs for 5/$110m or something in that vicinity it’s a huge coup for the Phillies – so I hope you’re right!!!!!

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  18. i love that we gave Nola one yr, Hopefully the kids like Painter show they can pitch in big leagues, I saw the 6 war, i said its the best i saw him pitch but not a fan, worry he will lose more Velocity and then he must be really perfect, He was terrible when we needed him in the big games, in playoffs and world series, So if it cost more next yr and he deserves it then okay, I am really trying to figure out Hoskins and Segura for next yr, I just dont remember a first basemen who drops easy throws like Hoskins, his glove really hurt us all season, and he is a streak hitter, I wish i had the numbers on how bad this team did against breaking balls, in the playoffs, My kid showed it to me, it was horrible, how do we address that problem?

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    1. rocco….Castellanos, JTR and Hoskins..last three games of the Series…1-36 with 22Ks. it may have been just one of those one time anomalies.
      Not sure you can address that problem with veteran players.

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  19. Romus, at least JTR hit that ball to CF that McCormack caught, and that was a shot. Castellanos and Hoskins didn’t get close to hits. The whole team hit .092 from the 6th inning of game 3 to the end.

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    1. matt……yes JTR with that hard hit to the RCF wall.
      However those three were in the middle of the lineup for a reason.
      all we may have needed were 3 more hits apiece of eachin that 3 game stretch.
      I do not expect the bottom 2 or 3 guys to put up plus-plus numbers on a whole,
      Ben Davis said it almost to a tee…the lineup does not need more sluggers…less a slugger or maybe two, and replace with contact hitters.

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  20. If we could swap Castellanos for Brando Nimmo, for instance, how much better would the lineup be? This is purely hypothetical. I don’t think the team is looking at anything like that.

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    1. I think we should trade Castellanos for Soto AND Tatis, Jr. – that would be a good trade. People – he has NEGATIVE.VALUE. You will need to pay someone to take him off your hands. Nobody is giving you any player of value for him.

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      1. What will almost certainly happen is that he will be back for 2023 and if he has a good season, then they will try to move him. Also, I don’t expect them to renegotiate with Segura. They can do better for $17 million.

        Hoskins will be back most likely but probably just for next year.

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          1. I didn’t read it that Matt was proposing a trade of Castellanos for Nimmo but rather moving Castellanos in one deal and then replacing his roster spot with Nimmo as a FA.

            I don’t think Castellanos is moved specifically because of the extra cost of dumping the contract.

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            1. Thanks, 3up. I was just posing a hypothetical question of how much better the lineup would look. Nimmo is a FA, so couldn’t be traded anyway. Just the idea of a contact hitter replacing a swing and miss guy. You could substitute Hoskins for Nimmo in the hypothetical. I was just wondering what the addition of someone like Nimmo would do to the overall lineup. I think it improves dramatically. I have no idea how to accomplish that however.

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    1. I’d tweak that a little bit andbreak up those lefties…

      Turner
      Harper
      JT
      Schwarber
      Bohm
      Hoskins
      Nick
      Stott
      Marsh/Vierling

      Vierling is ok and he costs next to nothing but I think you could improve that somehow.

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      1. I’d put Stott up between Bohm and Hoskins in the 6th hole….I think his lefty bat will take off in his second year.

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        1. What I think is going to happen, depending on whether or not they get Turner, is that Stott will end up in the #2 hole.

          On the free agent front, I’d be fine with either Turner or Rodon, but it’s clear they need another impact player. The decision probably won’t come down to AAV (both players will likely get in the $30 million per year range), it will likely come down to contract length. I’d rather have Rodon for 5 years than Turner for 7, although Turner is literally perfect hitter for this (or, frankly, any) line-up. Also, in deciding between a pitcher and a hitter, the Phillies have to take into account their organizational strength in the minors – starting pitcher – rely on that to a degree (and they should).

          My gut last year was that they would sign Schwarber, and they did (I didn’t not see the Castellanos move coming at all, and little wonder I didn’t) and my gut feeling this year is that Turner will playing short next year and Stott will become an elite fielding, high OBP second baseman.

          Also, in the spilt milk category, definitely continuing to bum on the O’Hoppe trade. I don’t hate Marsh and it would have been worth it if they had won the WS, but they didn’t. So we have let go a potential top 5 catcher in baseball (yes, yes, yes, that’s his ceiling – for real) for a good-fielding, okay hitting platoon-type centerfielder. I’ll get over it, at some point – I promise.

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          2. And while they don’t NEED to have a dominant catcher after Realmuto’s run is over (he has 3 more years – I expect the last year to be not so great), an elite catcher, perhaps along with a power-hitting shortstop, is the most rare commodity in the game – even more rare (although perhaps not more valuable) than a true ace. I would argue that the Phillies have had no such guy in their farm system over the last 40 years. Daulton was elite, but for a very short period of time (and before and after he was elite, he was okay to mediocre). d’Arnaud is a good player, but not elite and the same with Lieberthal. Chooch is probably the best who has been through our farm system in that time, and he was good, perhaps even very good, but not elite.

            So I get misty over the loss of a possible unicorn.

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            1. And a possible unicorn who got us not a stud, but, a useful, situational player. It was a trade of expediency – the one you try hard NOT to make by having a stocked farm system and anticipating your FA needs before the year starts. I’ll step off the soap box now.

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  23. Segura and Eflin off the books…$31M,
    ….plus the 6/7 other mostly relievers.
    Anxious to see what Dave D’s next moves are.

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    1. The game is going to be significantly different in quite a few ways without that shift. Defensively your middle IF will need excellent range.

      Offensively your left handed bats should see a few points increase in BA. And we’ll be hearing announcers talk all year about how last year that ball is an out LOL.

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      1. DMAR…now what is the rule….the ss has to have one or both feet on his side of second base and vice versa for the 2B?

        What I have seen….”The shift limit requires two infielders to be on either side of second and all infielders to be within the outer boundary of the infield when the pitcher is on the rubber….”

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        1. That’s my understanding on the positioning. I also understand that MLB is going to enforce the dirt cutout. Apparently they are only supposed to have so many feet between the inside and outside grass.

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  24. Romus…I think 2 guys on each side of 2B. Suppose one can be right at the edge for either the left-handed or right-handed batter. I think the biggest effect will be taking the guy out of shallow right field. Think of all the balls hit at that fielder in recent years. That to me is where the hits may come from. All 4 infielders must now be on the infield dirt. I know you do not like the rule. I think left-handed hitters will like the rule. Not sure it will have a major impact on the right-handed hitters.

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    1. I think you are right on where the hits will come from, removal of the short fielder will cause that to happen. However, people get carried away with the idea that it is just going to benefit us. The rule is the same for the opposition and its not like we didn’t employ the shift.

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      1. It will benefit any team with left-handed pull hitters. Romus can look and see how many guys are dead pull hitters. LOL
        I bet the number might be around 100. Only a guess on my part.

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    2. I’d rather have kept the shift but have all the fielders on the dirt…but we will have to see how it all works out.

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      1. What happens in extra innings, bases loaded no outs, When teams would play 5 infielders, is that still allowed?

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        1. I wondered that too Rocco. You would see from time to time a team bring in an outfielder to play up the middle. Hopefully that is still allowed in a walk off situation

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  25. Which team will be first to deploy the LF in short RF? There is no prohibition to that. Some team will try that vs a dead pull LH hitter.

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    1. CF in at short right and LF just to left of center field?? For some it may work but as a lefthanded hitter some will aim for that left side I imagine

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  26. I think the shift rule will be here to stay but the first rule to be rescinded (in my opinion) before the season begins will be the two throws to first base to hold the runner. I can’t even imagine it.

    That rule is bonkers! There are going to be so many complaints (legitimate completely) and base runners stealing wildly that all of baseball will be questioning this rule. What do you say, Rocco?

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    1. I disagree. That rule is going to stick for two reasons. First, they want to speed up games. Second, and more importantly, they WANT more stolen bases, so they are incentivizing stealing.

      One rule change I want, and I don’t think it will be this year, is that if a batter is hit by a pitch that would otherwise be a strike, it will still be a strike and not a free base for the batter. A batter, absolutely, positively should not be able to block a strike and, in doing so, be rewarded with a free base. The Astros (cheaters that they are) had their inferior hitters dangle their bodies in the strike zone throughout the series, trying to obtain an inappropriate advantage. Once other teams catch onto this, it’s going to happen more and more, thus necessitating the rule change.

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      1. Catch…I agree on that. Maldonado HBP was really close to a strike.
        Do away with all the Body Armour. Lots easier to get hit on it as opposed to your elbow. Elbow pad is what is most often used for this that I have seen.
        He did lean out initially and had elbow over home plate at one point.

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        1. I’m fine with body armor. These guys throw 97-102 and a hitter should be able to protect himself from those rockets. But they can’t use the armor shield as an on base weapon – it’s ridiculous and I can’t believe the announcers weren’t more vocal about that.

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          1. Catch…I agree on the safety. I get it that the pitches near 100 get there fast.
            But I would guess many of the HBP guys are those with the elbow guards on. Those are the ones who lean into the pitches, and I am sure they try to pick an off-speed pitch. Plus, many are guys who cannot hit. But they cannot have it both ways. Safety ok. But as a means of getting on cheaply NO. Had Wheeler got Maldonado out he may have gone 1, 2, 3 that inning. We will never know but Maldonado would not have stuck his elbow out there if no guard on. IMO.

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            1. Under my rule, you really could have it both ways (or close to it). First, they need to enforce the rule that you have to try to get out of the way of a thrown pitch, so on close pitches out of the strike zone, the batter would have to show that he tried to get out of the way. And on strikes, it wouldn’t matter because if the pitch was a strike, it would be called a strike regardless of whether the batter was hit. Also, umpires would need to enforce the rule that batters are not permitted to physically enter the strike zone, except to swing at a pitch – you could make doing so an automatic strike. It wouldn’t be perfect, but it should work well enough.

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            2. How about just redrawing the batters box to make the inside line further from the plate so that hitters cannot stand with their arms/hands over the inside corner of the plate.

              It would be more obvious if the hitter was trying to Chicken wing it to get and if they do, it would be on a pitch that was a bigger miss by the pitcher.

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            3. I don’t think you could move the batters box back without seriously changing the underlying game. Hitters would struggle hitting balls on the outside corner if you did that and it would change the game (and reduce scoring) in a big way. I mean, imagine if a guy like Zack Wheeler could just paint the outside corner all day knowing that the hitters couldn’t drive that pitch.

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            4. Not looking to move it that far. Dive hitters would still be dive hitters. Most batters don’t today stand with their feet on the inside edge of the batters box.

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            5. Well, they don’t do it unless they are bad hitters like Maldonado. He was set up OVER the plate. He didn’t need to dive into the pitch to be hit. He created the ultimate no-lose scenario.

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            6. Which is why the batters box should be far enough from the plate that the hitter cannot legally set up with their hands over the strike zone.

              Rizzo is another player who typically always has his hands over the plate and regularly leads the league in HBP.

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            7. There are pitches called for a strike on the outside of the plate that hitters can barely reach now. If you move the box back you will seriously screw up baseball itself and change the game fundamentally. You don’t kill a fly with a sledgehammer. You solve the problem by calling a strike a strike regardless of whether some idiot hitter decides he wants to be hit by a strike. Problem solved.

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            8. Don …Conforto did that a last year….and IMLB and the umpires addressed that issue and ruled the umps goofed.
              https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2021/4/8/22374451/mets-vs-marlins-michael-conforto-hit-by-pitch-video-announcers
              Official MLB l Rule 5.05-b2

              (2) He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (A) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (B) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball; (2) If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched. APPROVED RULING: When the batter is touched by a pitched ball which does not entitle him to first base, the ball is dead and no runner may advance.

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            10. That is it…just enforce the rules.
              Seems so simple, yet in the biggest series/games of the season, with 6 umps on the field and two in the booth, they cannot seem to get it right.

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            11. Romus…to your response below. Something on TV just did not look right on that play from the beginning. I have not watched any replay of the game, but I agree. That one play changed the whole outcome of game 6 IMO. If Maldonado makes an out maybe Alvarez never bats yet alone with 2 runners on base.

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      2. In the first regular season game vs Astros I would think there will be a whole bunch of hit batters in that game

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        1. I expect the Astros (and perhaps other very SABR-oriented teams) to game the system next year and get hit by a record (or near-record) number of pitches. There’s a serious loophole in the rules here and teams like that will exploit it. But you can only see that happen a few times before your blood begins to boil. You shouldn’t be able to turn a strike into what is effectively a hit by getting hit by the pitch. Frankly, it’s outrageous and I am sure the rule makers will see that.

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          1. Seeing the Astros legally “cheat” like this is annoying enough. I can’t even imagine what their opponents and fans of their opponents felt when they learned the Astros were actually cheating. I’m sure they aren’t over that still – how could you be?

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            1. I do not believe that Maldonado was cheating. Phillies go up 1-0. Had they not scored he may have been in the same spot in batter’s box as his first at bat. Down a run I think he was told or on his own to get on base by whatever means possible I had not seen him stand on the plate in any other at bats. Process of elimination. He is not a very good hitter, so a base hit was limited. Wheeler control was good. I forget if he had walked anyone but not many if he did. HBP seemed like best option. I am sure with that big elbow guard on he chose the correct option available. 4 runs later the rest is history. I do not think the rules state he cannot stand right on home plate if he so chooses. Also being a quality catcher, he is probably a better judge of the flight of the pitch than most. He has to catch like 150 a game. I think he took the rule to the cliff and was rewarded for it. Hard for home plate umpire to tell if he tried to get hit but other umps should have been able to see.

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            2. Don – that’s why I said he “legally” cheated. It’s a loophole in the rules. When they set up the rules nobody was thinking a batter would be dumb (or daring) enough to be hanging over the plate in order to get hit by a strike. The rule needs to be changed. That strike zone belongs to the pitcher. It’s not a place a batter should be able to work a free pass for himself when the pitcher has done precisely what he is supposed to do.

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            3. And while we are at it, it should also be illegal for the hitter to set up with any portion of his body in the strike zone. He should get one warning. The next time and any time thereafter, he should be assess a strike. That would stop the misadventures quickly.

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  27. I aimed to mention that may not be much effect on the ground ball hit up the middle.
    Good point Matt. Who has had 4 outfielders before. I am sure someone will try it.
    Now we are getting like slow pitch softball with the rover out there. There are many pretty dead pull left-handed batters. It will be interesting. Take Didi as an example. I do not think he ever hit a HR to left or left center field. He would be the classic case to do as you suggest Matt.

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  28. Few thoughts from several posts:

    O’hoppe – I’m bummed. As a potential solution could have been realmuto to 1st or O’hoppe. Trade either Hoskins or Nick. That said, all would have been water under the bridge with 2 more wins this year. Marsh did hit .300 or near it after a certain point, so will see. I’ll give him a fair chance. Now… his defense needs work. Horrible first and second steps too many times . That negates his defensive upgrade too much

    I like the HBP called a strike for obvious reasons 🙂 it’s stupid, blown call by ump

    Ding Dong the shift is dead. Or at least the 5th Of playing deep second. That’s over. I believe the SS and 2B can’t be passed 2B anymore! Love it

    Steal away

    Lastly , outside target – Profar is a FA who can play 2B from what I recall. Could be a decent combo with Rondon signing. Something to kick the can on if Turner is too much. My guess between31-35 mil a year …
    Crazy

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      2. Swanson should be cheaper but he has some risk. Swanson broke out at age 28 (5.7 WAR) but his previous years were barely above starter level. So the track record of him being elite is not there, not like Correa or Bogaerts.

        I think Swanson will be disappointed in the offers he will get. In that case, I might consider 3 years, $70M with an opt out after the first or second year.

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        1. I think someone is going to seriously overpay for Swanson, but I doubt it will be the Phillies. If the Harper/Wheeler and, unfortunately, Castellanos, experience has taught them, it’s that when you spend big FA money, go for it and get the truly elite player or the player you project to be elite. Where you really go wrong is when you spend $15-20+ million on just okay players, like #3 starters. That’s a bad place/use for your money. Swanson had a great year last year, but I don’t think he’s an elite player and they should be very careful about signing him unless they give him a one-year deal – then it’s fine.

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          1. I like Swanson…but find it hard to get over his 26% K-rate from last year …..and it actually went up 2% from his career of 24% AND his BB rate rate of 7% in 2022, was a percent lower than his career BB rate of 8%. So it appears he intended on swinging for more power, probably to look more attractive in his walk year.
            The trade-off, beside those offensive peripheral concerns, he seems to fill the bill defensively. is durable and provides a good measure of pop.
            Question…do you go with a year-older Turner at approx $30M AAV or a Swanson at maybe a $25M AAV?

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      3. My biggest issue is that Swanson has a lot of swing and miss in his game. Team already has enough of that.

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    2. Realmuto to 1st? He just won the friggin gold glove. lol yeesh.

      Marsh is a really good young player in a position of need. it was a win win deal

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      1. Yea, not sure taking the best defensive player at the hardest position on the defensive scale and moving him to the easiest defensive position on the scale is a good use of resources.

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        1. No, of course it’s not. Most of Realmuto’s value is as a catcher and it’s why, even when his hitting declines a bit, he should still be valuable toward the end of his contract. Perhaps he will not quite worth the contract price in year 5, but, if he’s healthy, he should still be a good player even if his hitting was around league average.

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      2. Ha. I get it, it’s hard imagine. General thought is a catcher can make the transition to 1B. If O’hoppe’s bat is that good, it would have been a nice Option.
        Realmuto splitting time at 1B with the bulk of the catching going to him. His value is at C. I’m guesssing O’hoppe could have better defensive at 1B than Hoskins. It was an internal option that is on more. I’m sure DD has a better plan than me!

        Marsh, needs improvement defensively. He’s not the CFer I’d like to see trying to cover
        For schwarber & Harper gaps. Specifically His 1st step/read off the bat. Kind of scratching my head why it’s not already there . Maybe it was nerves vs skill

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  29. I’ve seen the 2B & SS set up on edge of grass but in the grass with feet for many years even prior to these new shifts designed for each hitter. I understand the rule for 2 fielders on each side of second but some fielders do set up deep at times

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  30. I think DD has Turner #1 on his list, followed by Bogaerts. I like Swanson, but I am guessing what the team does, and I believe they have the other 2 guys higher on their wish list. I have read no connection to Correa, which is a bit of a surprise.

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    1. matt….read earlier Correa still wants 8 years (maybe 7 plus a one year buy-out) and close to $35M AAV…..that may be why there is little interest from the Phillies.

      Like

    2. Agreed. Turner and then Boegaerts. I don’t see Swanson or Correa – not enough upside and way too expensive.

      Like

  31. Great point Romus! I see that Texas is rumored to be involved with Kershaw and deGrom, so swimming in the deep end of the SP pool. I would be shocked if the Dodgers lose Kershaw, but what if they sign deGrom instead? Texas and the Dodgers are the 2 teams rumored to “scare the Mets.” Do you have any favorites amongst the BP arms?

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    1. matt….Kershaw has talked about going back to Texas a year or so ago….maybe he will do it this time.
      That reliever from San Diego..Suarez…. looks attractive.

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      1. Suarez has elite stuff. Forget about the Harper home run – he’s very, very good.

        Also, don’t be surprised if Andrew Baker sprints into Philadelphia next year. His stuff is potentially elite and his arm might even be better than Seranthony’s. I also expect a big comeback from Coonrod. You always have potential when you throw 98 MPH.

        We have arms on the farm, although trades should be considered. They should continue to buy the bats and tweak the arms.

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        1. Yes…we have the minor league BP arms….just look at the AFL…Morales and Br. Schulze did quite well in their short stints ….the AFL experience is like a quasi- stepping stone to AAA and then soon after the majors.

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        2. They need a pool of 5-6 arms in the pen that throw either 95+ or some Marvel Superhero pitch (aka the rising fastball). Be great if 3-4 of them are org developed. Keep pen costs down to $22-24m in total – or about 1.1 Diaz’s. Free up more money for starters

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  32. catch, I forgot about Baker and wasn’t sure if we control Coonrod. I had hopes for Erik Miller, but not sure he is, or will in the near future, be ready. I think we can use another Lefthanded arm in the Pen

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    1. matt..that LHP reliever was sent to the AFL….Taylor Lehman…he did however have some struggles ..the former Penn Stater had goof K metrics, but he lost his control at times…being 6’8″ it is tough repeating your mechanics. I hope they work with him this off-season and maybe he gets an invite to camp in the spring.

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    2. Baker hits 102 and 103 and probably sits around 97-100. Once he figures a few things out he could be a month or two away from being a valuable big league bullpen piece. I cannot believe they were able to get him in the 11th round. That blows me away.

      Also, Morales looks great. He hasn’t given up an earned run in the AFL (yesterday he gave up his first unearned run in an inning pitched but still struck out three). As for Miller, who the hell knows? I think he will be a big league reliever at some point (the arm is good), but it could be next year or 3 years from now (that’s not an exaggeration).

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      1. Morales should get an extensive look again in spring training.
        Sure wish the control was a little better, but everything else in his repertoire is plus

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  33. Even with our system adding a BP arm or 2, we are still going to be in the market for a couple more. Any interest in Taylor Rogers?

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    1. Absolutely yes for me, matt. I’d love to see DD bring Taylor Rogers in here as the other lefty pen piece.

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  34. Who do you guys’ think is the 1st free agent the Phillies land?
    Or even what position do they go for at the beginning of free agency?

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    1. Usually it is minor moves made early such as depth players on minor league contracts. Last year they signed Bellatti (great pick up) and traded for Garrett Stubbs, Nick Nelson, and Donny Sands (all good pick ups) in November. December 1st they signed Knebel so my guess is a reliever will be the first move as I could see them bringing 3 or more in.

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  36. Good points guys. I was wondering if they might try to use the World Series momentum to land a big fish or two early.
    The names I have seen here associated with the Phillies are
    Rodon
    Turner
    Boegarts
    Eovaldi
    Suarez
    Montero
    These would be kind of big fish. There is no doubt getting the key players to supplement the roster is very important as well. Players can see the Phillies are very close to winning it all and may jump a little quicker than before. Plus, then you have to get lucky that the player or players stay healthy and have a productive year.
    I do not think anyone saw Nick having as poor of a year as he did last Spring.

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  37. I think that Ranger has proven himself to be a very good #3 SP, and while I would love to add Rodon, I think the team’s #1 target is Turner. To answer your earlier question, Don, I agree that a Bullpen addition is move #1. I would be very surprised if we are able to land Turner and Rodon.

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  38. Let me see if i’m hearing this correctly, next year pitchers will only be able to throw to first (pick off) 2x per AB? How is this possible? Wouldn’t that mean that after the 2nd time, a runner can basically take as big a lead as he’d like?

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  39. Matt, I just read an article that references Jim Salsbury. He thinks Phillies can fit both Turner and Rodon. Also, article states moving Nick is a real possibility. He may have burned some bridges this year. I do agree that BP help is once again a major issue.
    I think they move pretty fast if they have targeted some of the big FAs.

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      1. Philly nation wrote it on twitter but then I listened to Salisbury on the radio and he said nothing of the sort. My dream scenario is both Rodon and Turner, sign a few bullpen pieces and trade one of the pitching prospects for an established closer like Bedard. Again this is my dream

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        1. Brian…that could be. They do Philly Nation and I think Fan Side little promos. Article mentioned Salisbury. I like those 2 though.

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      2. Sorry. It was on the front page of my computer. I get all kinds of Phillies stuff. I will check to see if I can find it.

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    3. Castellanos is still owed 4 years, $80M. At the minimum, the Phillies have to eat something like $30M and maybe even as high as $40M. Are they willing to do that after only 1 year?

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      2. I more expect them to try to rehabilitate him before they trade him, but, man, did he ever crash and burn this year. Okay, say you’re another team. Would you sign Castellanos to a 4 year, $40 million contract? I wouldn’t. If that’s the consensus around baseball $40 million of subsidies still might not be enough for someone to take that contract.

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    1. I still believe that the Phillies will have a rotation spot open that will be filled in ST. Painter will be in the mix, Plassmeyer, Crouse (he would have to blow people away), and maybe some journeyman veterans.

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    2. Agree that Painter will become part of the rotation in 2023. Only concern I assume the Phillies have is his inning count. He just hit 100 IP this year and I expect they wouldn’t want to exceed about 130 or so in 2023. Might make them delay bringing him up or possibly try to skip some starts during the season.

      If the goal is to have him for the playoffs in 2023 then need to further limit innings during the year.

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  41. If Painter comes up and pitches to 8-10 with an ERA around 4 and a half, I’m fine with that. The biggest problem I envision is how many innings can you get out of him.

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    1. Can’t say for certain … but I believe the Phillies will use a six man rotation for (at least) parts of next season. This would allow them to better nurse Painter and McGarry, and also save more bullets in the arms of Wheeler/Nola/Ranger/FA acquisition on a shorter term deal (Verlander or Eovaldi?) for another possible playoff run. Dombrowski’s #1 priority this offseason has to be Build Better Pitching Depth.

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      1. 6 man rotation sounds like a really smart way to begin the season. I think Bailey Falter probably bounces between the rotation and bullpen depending on off days.

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        1. Bailey Falter was exposed a bit (okay, a lot) in the playoffs, but he hangs in really well against poor and average teams. He would be fine as a #5 to start the season if they get a big name FA starter to be the 4.

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            1. Yes, that role for Falter as the starting #4 out of spring training probably does not suit him right now.
              Could be in his future since he may develop other pitches, then I can see him as a #4 or three in a rotation.

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            2. I’ve been as a big a fan of Falter as anyone, but he’s going to need to develop quite a bit further to be anything more than a 4/5. It’s hard to have success at the big league level, even as a lefty, throwing only 89-92. So he needs to increase his velocity and/or come up with more effective pitches. When he grooves his FB, he just gets killed.

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            3. Appreciate what Falter did for the Phillies in 2022 but I don’t see him as anything more than a spot starter/stopgap in the rotation. His stuff just isn’t good enough. As teams see him more and more, the deception in his delivery stops being a significant factor.

              Don’t see the Phillies relying on him to be anything other than the 6th starter on the roster who’s fills in as needed.

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  42. I wouldn’t rule out a trade. I read in the Athletic the White Sox would consider moving a core piece. I would have interest in Tim Anderson if so.

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  43. ESPN has some interesting FA projections:

    Trea Turner, 8 years, $272M
    Carlos Correa, 8 years, $265M
    Xander Bogaerts, 6 years $168M
    Dansby Swanson, 6 years, $150M
    Carlos Rodon, 5 years, $130M
    Zach Eflin, 3 years, $39M

    I don’t want any part of 8 years for Turner. I think he’s breaking down in year 4 or 5.

    ESPN notes that Bogaerts will eventually have to be moved off SS so that plays a part.

    Don’t really want to give Swanson 6 years.

    Rodon has some injury risk and diminished velocity. I’m really on the fence with him.

    Good luck to Eflin.

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  44. Guru…here is what has always amazed me. I get the big guys getting the big $$$s.
    Even most are overspending.
    But it is the mediocre guys who really cash in on what they provide. Some of these guys get millions and millions and millions and produce next to nothing over the course of the contract. One year or multi year. I think Romus said there are no bad 1-year contracts. Just take a look at the Phillies BP this year. Lots of money wasted on those guys. Multiply that by 30 teams. They all have someone other than the teams who spend nothing.

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    1. Most teams can’t afford to spend top dollar to get elite players in FA. So if you want to field a competitive team, you’ll have to sign some mid level FAs and hope that they deliver elite production. It’s asking for a lot, but it does happen. The flip side is that they’re mid level for a reason (sometimes for multiple reasons). If they decline even a little bit, it might get ugly.

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    2. Um . . . yeah, OF COURSE there are bad one year contracts. If you need any further proof, just check out the Phillies bullpen at the beginning of 2022.

      The point is that a bad one year contract does not cripple an organization.

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      1. Literally sure there are a BAD one-year contracts….. Familia of late……but like yuo say , does not cripple an org….even Didi’s two year was mediocre to poor. Letting them go early in their last year of a contract, obviously does not adversely affect the org in the long term vs the the bad LTC.

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  45. I don’t see how we can count on Painter coming out of ST. Sure, I think he is a great prospect, and I think he has a terrific future, and I know that DD has a history of bringing young guys up. But, I think he starts at LHV, spends a few months there, and if he is as dominant as he has been, then we can see him in June.

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    1. There’s no doubt that Painter is going to be on an innings limit for 2023 (130-150 innings). I would rather he come up later and have him available in the postseason, then have him be on the opening day roster and then get shut down in August.

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    2. matt…if there is a prospect to come out of the gate, if he shows it in spring training, it would be IMO Griff McGarry.
      Next season will be his age24 season, physically stronger and is ready to be challenged to get up to 110 innings or more for a season.
      Take for example, Spencer Strider…had 94 innings in 2021 with the Braves minor affliates…..and went to 134 this season in the majors.
      McGarry had 87 innings this season,

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    3. By the way, we don’t know what will happen with Painter and the others. McGarry or Abel could surge forward. Very little separates their raw stuff. Painter has much better FB command for now.

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      1. Painter’s ridiculous season overshadows just how good of a prospect Abel remains. He is a really, really good prospect. And he’s older and at the same minor league level.

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      2. Of the three, however, McGarry’s raw stuff is the best, as hard as that is to believe, it’s true.

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        1. McGarry’s raw stuff you could compare to a youngish David Cone or Max Scherzer, but he doesn’t have their command or ability to change speeds. But it’s electric.

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        2. McGarry in the mix for pen? See him as an emerging 6 out guy. With starters out by the 6th, need for the ‘6 out – bridges’.

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          1. That would actually be a good outcome for him and a good path for his future success, but most teams aren’t as flexible with those types of arrangements for good young pitchers as they should be. I could see the Phillies giving it a try, but who knows?

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  46. I agree that we have 3 really good prospects, and I would love to see McGarry gain command. His stuff is electric. I hope all 3 have great careers for us. I just think we need to add SP in the off season and not count on them out of ST. If 1, or more, forces his way onto the Roster, that’s great. But DD needs to assume we have to replace Eflin and Gibson. Is Falter one of them? I am not sure. Does Eflin come back? I would venture to say no. So, I think we will be signing a #4 as opposed to someone slotting between Wheeler and Nola

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    1. First, it’s hard to imagine any of the “big three” prospects making the rotation out of ST. I’d say the earliest ETA would be late May or mid-June.

      Second, Falter is not a 4 now. If he’s your number 4, we are going to have a very tenuous back of the rotation, at least to start the season. I can’t see the Phillies settling for that.

      The Phillies will almost certainly sign a starting pitcher to add to the rotation (perhaps even two). It could be a standard 3/4 type of guy or a TOR guy. We don’t know yet, but it will be somebody.

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    2. Just my opinion: Dombrowski needs to sign a difference making arm (at least a SP3), and not an innings eater. It would be better to land one on a shorter term deal. That means you’re looking at an older dude or a guy coming off an injury. Dombrowski has relationships with two candidates who would fit those parameters: Verlander & Eovaldi. IMO, Zach Eflin is his fall back option.

      As I’ve posted before, I’m most looking forward to seeing how the Phillies handle their BP. I believe the closer/late inning reliever market is gonna be crazy this winter. Demand far exceeds supply. Does the team ride with Ser-Ant’ny? I’d like to see them buy (the guy matt mentioned earlier) Taylor Rogers as another lefty/closer candidate. Hes got excellent K & BB #s. Gotta have that. I’ve also attempted to get more information (with no success) on Corey Knebel’s shoulder. I’d be good with bringing him back if it looks like he’ll be OK to pitch (at some point) in 2023.
      I’m also optimistic Ani Kilambi unearths an interesting couple of arms nobody has ever heard of before.

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      1. Hinkie…after seeing Nick Castellanos’ wife’s tweet, Kate probably told Justin….no to Philly.
        Wives do not miss a trick….or another players’ wife’s tweets..

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      2. The Phillies announced that they have claimed two relievers off waivers from the Giants. Right-hander Luis Ortiz and left-hander Andrew Vasquez will jump to Philadelphia

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      3. Let’s not forget Morales as a addition to BP candidates. I think Shulze is in AFL too.

        The OP is right, this time of year is armchair gm time.

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      4. Look, if they signed Eovaldi on a one or two year deal and signed Turner and maybe one solid reliever, that’s a great offseason haul.

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  47. V1
    I attended Painter’s last High A start against Greensboro, and he was completely dominant. He definitely will be pitching in Philly sometime next year; the only question is when.

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    1. Anyone look at Darrick halls college experience? I think it was 1 yr of joco and summer ball, then short season a ball. Getting better ever since.

      Is there any possibility hamels will be in the mix?

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      1. JUCO…two years at Cochise, Arizona, ’14 and ’15….Dad was involved with the team…..then onto DBU for one year in 2016.

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    1. Ortiz is a 94-96 velo guy….FB, sinker, and slider reliever.
      Have not found anything on Vasquez’ stuff.

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      1. Romus…….saw that he throws slider, sinker and cutter. Velocity 80 mph to 89 mph. Throws breaking ball most of the time. Don’t know if that is reliable info or not.

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        1. I was told he has a big arm, like most of the other pitchers the Phillies have been signing, claiming, … Are you sure you got info on the right Ortiz? MLBTR posted a link to the wrong guy when they announced the trade. They pointed to a pitcher on the Pirates.

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      2. ………did you ca tch the Boras Dog & Pony show as described in USA Today and Th e New York Post………he is a piece of work!

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        1. Skeet…did not see his conference…..probably read about it later today….though did see when he first arrived in Vegas, and asked by reporters, he would not comment on one of his non-clients, Aaron Judge…just smiled.

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  50. Last of Spencer Howard trade gone…..Phillies outrighted Hans ‘Die-Hard Gruber’ Crouse this afternoon.

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  52. Just saw Inside the Philly Nation on Fan Side with quote about Turner wanting to be a Phillie. But article was deleted. So maybe fake.

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  56. I have questioned the wisdom of signing Trea Turner to an 8+ year mega contract (because I’m not a believer in guys who succeed with their legs aging gracefully). Having said that, he’s been one of my two favorite non-Phillies (Brandon Nimmo the other) over the past 5 years or so, he would give the club a better chance of winning a championship during the next couple of years, and his agency, CAA really does a great job of selling him in this video⬇

    And Jayson Stark reported yesterday (no surprise here) Turner would like to be a Phillie.

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    1. Also heard Brad Lidge (on MLB Network Radio) say he’s heard the Phillies FO plans to pursue Turner “aggressively”.

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      1. Hinkie…agree….8 years is a little longer than I would be comfortable with….but John Middleton probably disagrees.
        I personally would shoot for 6 plus one buy-out.

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        1. If they can use a longer-term deal to get the AAV number a lower I’m fine with that. The Phillies payroll will allow them to eat some bad contract at the back-end vs. being up against the tax threshold every year so using a longer-term deal to give more space under the cap is a good use of resources.

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          1. I give him the 8, it’s what it’s going to take most likely. It works if he performs through the 4+ year playoff window (and starts to decline slight from year 4 to year 6. If he is toast in years 7&8, then that is manageable. Not ideal but hopefully by then an INF is ready from the minors to replace him for a rebuild/retool. Also, it’s not my money.

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          2. The issue from what I have been reading about Turner….is that the AAV he is seeking hovers around $30M…..and over 8 years, that is when I scratch my head..
            Naturally the tax threshold will incrementally go up every year, but why be up against the tax cap every year for the next decade or so!
            There will still be other costly needs going forward.
            But as Tac says….not my money and John Middleton does like to spend big ….he definitely does not want to appear to be cheap.

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            1. What’s better for the Phillies? Turner at 6-$37.5m per season or 8-$29?

              What Turner is asking for vs. what he signs for is where the negotiations come in but I’d rather they take the Harper approach of giving a longer term if it means the AAV is reduced.

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            2. I’d get queasy myself at $300M for Turner. If he can get that god bless him but if its my money we’re about $100M off. 8/$216 something like that and if not turn your attention to Xander.

              Not sure if its true but saw Sherman say the Yankees plan to stay internal for a SS which tells me they think they are bringing Judge back.

              So if its a game of musical chairs and there are only so many big spenders to go around the Phillies have some leverage.

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            3. I’d say the six year deal for sure. What kills a team isn’t the big contracts, it’s the bad contract years and dead salary money. They are going to have to be concerned about Bryce’s contract in those years. They don’t need another dead money contract when Harper is in his late 30s. Pay him a lot now. He should have at least another 3-4 great years and then perhaps a few good years. Overpaying him for a few of those years shouldn’t be that big of a deal.

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        2. True a good part of Turner’s game right now is predicated on speed and at 37-38 he’s not going to be as fast as he is today but I doubt his hit tool which is pretty good falls off a cliff.

          The shorter the deal the better of course

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          1. Everybody’s hit tool falls off a cliff eventually. It’s rare to find a player that ages gracefully. Did Nick Castellanos’ hit tool fall off a cliff? Didn’t Nick have a good hit tool?

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            1. Castellanos may bounce back. His season was so unexpectedly bad. Who knows? Personally I expect him to bounce back – I think he needs to start all over again. He probably just pressed and picked up every bad habit in the book. I think he was just trying too hard.

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            2. I don’t know if he was trying to hard or taking last years success for granted, expecting it to come again naturally. I followed Nick since he was a high draft pick, thinking we would be a hall of famer 3rd baseman.

              I still like him but when a guy is performing under his expectations, it’s disheartening to see the lackadaisical walk to home plate and the gum chewing, star attitude.

              With all the team strikeouts, I have to wonder if the hitting coach is encouraging a guessing approach rather than vready for fastball, adjust for off speed approach. But with all the analytics at a pitchers disposal, one has to think that pitchers have improved over the last 10-20 years.

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  57. Most SS will move to a corner towards the backend of their careers. For Turner I imagine he would have little trouble transitioning to 3rd or LF.

    The other Turner out there just played his age 37 season and slashed 278/350/788 OPS. So guys can still contribute into their late 30’s.

    I’d love Correa but at 27 he’s going to be way more expensive in years and $$$ and probably hurt a good bit of that contract. Just too risky for me. Bogaerts is a solid fall back option.

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    1. This makes no sense. If you can’t hit at SS, you’re going to hit better at 3B or LF, which are power positions? I don’t remember seeing Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford transitioning away from SS.

      The argument is that playing SS shortens your career because it’s a physically taxing position. Justin Turner was never a full time SS. He only played 46 games at SS (and made 6 errors).

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  58. My feeling is that we are in a financial position that if we identify a player who we feel really moves the needle, and I think that Turner is really good, then you go sign him. If he helps us be better positioned to win the WS, then I don’t lose him because I only want to go 6 years, and it will take 7, or 7 years and it will take 8. DD has already compiled his list, so the decision about the player’s ability has already been made. It’s not like Turner is 7 years, and Bogaerts is rated almost as good and it would only take 5, for instance. The numbers on them all will be in the same ballpark, with Correa maybe getting a little more because of his age.

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  59. One of the MLB guys last night think it was Bo Porter who said where Turner will really make a difference is in stolen baes. I think he had around 30 this year. With the new rule he said will steal a lot more now. Then you still have to drive him in from 2nd.
    I like Turner. I am ok with any of the top SS.

    Like

    1. Don…..I also like Turner for those reasons….just hope the contract does not handcuff the team from going after key starters at high prices down the road.

      Like

  60. Romus, the way DD talks about the SP that we have in the system, and how highly they seem to be regarded, the focus is going to be to add an every day player, with SS as the obvious focal point. The SP help I think we add is in the #4/5 role vs one that slots between Wheeler and Nola or Nola and Ranger. He said they “want to create a spot for 1 of them”, mentioning Falter, Sanchez and the 3 Amigos. There are 2 spots available, Eflin’s and Gibson’s. So, I can see Falter or Sanchez winning spot #5, a FA at #4, and then whichever of the prospects forces a promotion has the ability to bounce in at #5 during the season.

    Like

  61. There seems to be a lot of smoke that Turner wants to come to Philly. Another one as I got on computer now. Think Yard Barker.
    Maybe me from afar. But I think Middleton and DD know they are going to have to play in Cohen’s stratosphere to stay on top now. I just do not see the LTT being a measure issue going forward for the Phillies at this time. No idea if I am right or wrong.

    Like

    1. There’s talk that Cohen is not willing to go above $300M. There’s also talk that Middleton doesn’t want to breach the second tax tier (which is about $~270M).

      Like

  62. Matt… those are good points. Here is my thought. Had the Phillies got in the playoffs and lost 2 straight to the Cardinals I think the feelings of the brass would be much different than being 2 wins from the World Series. Not only that but both of those last 2 games were very winnable games IMO. I think you see a full court press by the Phillies to get over the hump now. Looks like I am ready for basketball. Full court. LOL.

    Like

  63. A lot of smoke around Turner. Usually, when there is this much noise it happens. So I think that Turner is likely to happen. But before that happens, let me throw out this crazy idea that will likely never happen but will be fun to debate

    …Phillies sign Judge instead of Turner.

    They sell Castellanos for a bag of balls. Pay half of his contract and attach Erik Miller.

    They use Sosa and Stott as the MIF. So the lineup would be:
    1. Schwarber
    2. Judge
    3. Harper
    4. JT
    5. Rhys
    6. Bohm
    7. Stott
    8. Marsh
    9. Sosa

    Like

    1. Everyone’s worried about Turner not aging well but I’m much more worried about Judge as he gets older. Much more likely for a big guy like Judge to lose his legs.

      Turner solves their leadoff hitter issues and costs significantly less than Judge/Castellanos combined contract costs.

      Like

        1. He’s 280 lbs and will be turning 31 going into next season. That’s my concern about his game falling off faster than many.

          Like

    2. v1 you may undervalue Castellanos and overvalue Judge’s defensive range as a CF, but it would definitely be a fright-night winner of a line-up, perhaps worth the lost draft pick(s).

      Like

    3. I see Judge not even going back to the Yankees….Giants all the way…wifey wants to go home….and of course the Giants have the same money as the Yankees and more to offer him.
      It is a wonder of nature how much wives influence husbands…even those who play kids games as professional athletes.
      I think back to Cliff Lee’s wife and NY Yankees fans….she implied, no way they would go to New York…so Philadelphia got him.

      Like

          1. Best line-up I ever saw – and I said it at the time – was the 1995 Cleveland Indians who had –

            Jim Thome
            Eddie Murray
            Manny Ramirez
            Kenny Lofton
            Paul Sorrento (good slugger)
            Carlos Baerga
            Sandy Alomar, Jr.
            and, last by not least, Albert Belle, who had 50 homers and 52 double in 143 games!!!!

            Like

        2. Yup – remember Joey Belle – Belle was always angry as hell about stuff that nobody could ever figure out and it wasn’t because he was a dummy. He has a degree in accounting with good grades.

          Ironically Cleveland also had one of the greatest pitching staffs ever in 1954 with Hall of Famers Bob Feller, Early Wynn and Bob Lemon along with Mike Garcia and the ugliest man in the history of baseball, Don Mossi (check out his pic in baseball reference and then quickly avert your eyes!).

          Like

          1. Joey Belle was straight up bananas (google the time he got HBP and refused to take 1B) but he can seriously rake. He had degenerative arthritis in his right hip that effectively cut his career short. There’s no doubt that he could have played another 3 years. He was just a ballplayer that wanted to hit and not deal with the media responsibilities. I don’t think we’ll ever see another player like him again.

            Like

            1. Had he remained healthy, he was a Hall of Famer and one of the truly great hitters in the history of the game. In a league, as a hitter, with guys like Frank Robinson, Johnny Mize, Manny Ramirez and Dick Allen. When healthy, Belle could FLAT OUT HIT.

              Like

            2. So, again, in 1995, Belle had 103 extra base hits in 143 games – it’s hard to overstate just how great that is. The most extra base hits in a year during the modern era (since 1950) is 107 and Belle had 103 in 143 games. What’s even more crazy is that Belle did not lead the league in adjusted OPS+ that year. Edgar Martinez did.

              Like

  64. Verlander opted out. What’s the groups consensus, he gets two or three years with a near Max Scherzer $43 million AAV?

    Like

    3. Well, let’s be honest. Those who are complaining about Nola, shouldn’t want verlander. Apparently both run out of gas by the WS. So what’s the point? Personally,
      I’m a big Bauer fan, on the field. I hold my nose, and see what his 1 yr price is. Verlanders WS record is concerning to me, which is exactly what you sign him for, to pitch in the WS. I’d rather beef up the bullpen with money, shorten the games – Suarez, Montero, Britton or possibly chapman – depending on why he went AWOL

      Like

      1. I like to see Bauer on the CBP mound….and see if he can throw the ball over the CF wall batting eye onto Ashburn Alley.

        Like

      2. I hold my nose and keep walking. You don’t need a clubhouse cancer on this team and he really is. I don’t want anything to do with that guy. Give someone else the money. And, by the way, he’s also very inconsistent. You literally have no idea what you’re getting.

        Like

        1. Of all the good moves LAD’s Andrew Friedman has made over the years….signing Trevor Bauer is up there with one of his biggest goofs…….along with trading Yordan Alvarez to the Astros for reliever Josh Fields in 2016.

          Like

          1. I think you guys are being a bit harsh on Bauer. letting his onfield issue weigh heavily here. I’m not looking for choir boys, he’s got serious talent, he was a CY winner, knows how to pitch. I wouldn’t overlook it. You can get him on a 1 year deal. I seriously question the club house cancer, not saying it’s not true, but I’d need to see a good amount.

            Like

            1. He is universally despised in the business. A jerk and a cretin whose bad behavior got him suspended. He’s proven he is a jackass and bad teammate over and over again. And totally unpredictable in terms of performance. You want more proof? You’ve got to be kidding me. He can get lost.

              Like

            3. Verlander on short term/high AAV deal w/no QO ⬆⬆⬆
              Trevor Bauer – in no universe do you want that cancer in the Phillies clubhouse. Worst dude ever ⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇

              Like

            4. Bauer is radioactive to all clubs for a variety of reasons and I believe will never play in the majors again.

              With regards to how his most recent teammates felt about him, see the following:

              Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported the pitcher is “a pariah in his own clubhouse, where no teammate has spoken publicly about him or come to his defense.”

              What’s more, “a majority of players do not want Bauer back under any circumstances.”

              This is consistent with everything I’ve ever heard about him through various sources.

              Like

            5. Bauer is very unpredictable and very complicated….an IQ approaching a genius…..Mechanical Engineering student at UCLA. can do something crazy without warning…then again gives tons of money to charities…more than the average ball player.
              Saw tgis on him:
              “People get the wrong impression about me,’’ Bauer said. “They think I’m elitist or I’m conceited or whatever. But I’m a really good person. I take care of my friends and my family. I’m kindhearted. I’m a better person than a lot of people I’m surrounded by. I’ll get chewed up for saying that, but it’s true.’’……….You know who says things like that? Assholes!

              “I just get this reputation of being a bad teammate, but no one would come in and tell me why. So a couple of years back, I went and asked five or six teammates, ‘What makes me a bad teammate?’ And I couldn’t get a straight answer. Either they didn’t want to tell me to my face or they didn’t know.”

              …….do not think GM s want to deal with a loose-canon, all the distractions and drama, not matter how talented

              Like

  65. MLB.com….best Phillies trade chip.

    Phillies: Rhys Hoskins
    “The Phillies might make a big play for Trea Turner this offseason, which could mean moving Bryson Stott to third base and Alec Bohm to first base. Hoskins, who earned $7.7 million last season and is entering his final year of arbitration, would be a solid addition to the middle of a number of lineups.”
    https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-2023-trade-chips-for-every-mlb-team

    Like

  66. I think they had to come up with something for the column, Romus. I don’t think there is any plan to move Stott to 3B or Bohm to 1B. Even if they want to move Rhys, they have the rest of the movement wrong. And, I don’t know how valuable other teams find Rhys/ It’s supposed to be “best Phillies trade chip,” not “somebody that might possibly be moved in order to move other players around.”

    Like

    1. matt…..yeah, they probably took everything into consideration and Rhys ended being the best…i would think Castellano would have been second on their list.
      And agree….Stott probably goes to 2B and Bohm remains at third.

      Like

  67. QOs to Judge, Turner, Swanson, Bogaerts, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Contreras, Bassitt, Rizzo, Anderson, Perez, Pederson, Eovaldi. Is there anyone not on the list that surprises anybody?

    Like

    1. rocco…rumors galore….looks like deGrom may be headed to Texas with Bruce Bochy…..and may join Kershaw with the Rangers….get them out of the NL…great for the Phillies.

      Like

      1. Kershaw is close to re-signing with the Dodgers…the Phillies won’t even approach either Verlander or deGrom, IMO. Rodon is my preference despite the QO. He’s a young, longer term option in case Nola declines an extension offer and tests the free agent market next winter. With Wheeler, Ranger, Rodon and Painter just off stage, that’s an impressive rotation with or without Nola.

        Like

    1. Muzziotti and McArthur are placeholders. They could/will be of the 40 man as soon as any better option comes along. They are both C- level prospects (sorry, but it’s true).

      Like

  70. Ji-Man Choi just gave us a good sense of trade value for Rhys and it is not a good one. Rhys definitely better than Choi, but not much. Pretty similar hitters. Rhys slightly better. Rhys 2 years younger but both under control for 2 years. Tampa got a 24 year old, non prospect relief pitcher in low A as far as I can tell. It’s the Rays so maybe he has a great fastball. But not much there.

    Like

  72. Suarez off the FA list. Just signed back with the Padres, 5 years/$46M. v1, I am on the “do not trade Rhys this off season” side, but I never thought anyone believed he would bring much back. The arguments I recall are adding more $ to the till to spend elsewhere, and move someone currently on the team to 1B. I keep him.

    Like

    1. matt….exactly…..adding the $13/14M savings from Rhys’ last arb can go a long way with another pitcher.

      Like

      1. Exactly. Rodon. Even losing a draft pick from signing him can be offset by trading Hoskins for a major league prospect or two, along with the speculation that Castellanos is moved in creative DD fashion. I can see Nick in Miami for another couple promising players should the Phillies eat enough of his salary.

        Like

      2. And Hoskins’ replacement in the line-up is who? And don’t say Schwarber or Castellanos – then you have a hole in left or DH. And don’t tell me Bohm, because his bat isn’t good enough at first. And don’t tell me Hall. World Series teams don’t hand starting first base jobs over to borderline 27 year old rookies. Nobody has answered this question adequately and that’s one reason Hoskins will likely stay put for this year. For 2024, who knows?

        Like

        1. Please enough with the Hall bashing….he can give you a 242 BA just as good as Rhys…with way better defense and and probably more power.

          Like

        2. Hall did pretty well in dh for Harper. Hit 37 in combined AAA/ML plus has almost 2 years at AA. He’s 27 partly due to having lost a year to covid and being held back at AA.

          A team can’t fill the 25 man roster with 20 million/ye players.

          So, IMO this would be one area they could get 2 yrs younger, drop 14 million for next yr and likely 18-20/ yr afterwards. and have likely similar production. If he struggles against lefties for a time, Bohm, or Vierling can spot sub for awhile.

          A top tier team has to supply some younger talented players to balance the big $$ guys.

          Like

          1. TonyG, I understand the thought process, but we have Bohm, Stott and Marsh playing almost every day, and Marsh’s back up is Vierling, another young player. I don’t understand how people feel it is so easy to hit 30 HRs in the Major Leagues. I do not assume that Hall can match Hoskins’ production. I know that Rhys is a poor fielder. He was supposed to be a DH, but we signed Castellanos. I don’t think that the team is lying, or trying to puff up Hoskins’ trade value, by talking about how important he is to the team. I think he is. So, at least for this next season, I do not trade him. This is not Jim Thome blocking Ryan Howard, with all due respect to Hall, his family, friends and supporters. I try to make my predictions based on what I think the team has in it’s plans. And, I don’t think they are considering trading Hoskins.

            Like

            1. Im responding mostly to the op about being an armchair GM.

              I don’t think Hall has anything more to prove at AAA except cutting his K’s slightly. 1 out of 5 or 6 ab would be better than 1 of 4. So I am thinking if they don’t trade him by spring training, then they will keep him till mid season to see his or Reese’s performances and choose by then.

              Yes, it’s difficult to pridict the transfer of production from AAA TO ML, but he does have those 9 hr in 135 AB. so his power is not a fluke as arrested from short season A ball upward.

              I’m not thinking of what is being talked about, but what I see as good moves and what I would consider. That’s the fun of armchair gm-ing.
              Rys has committed to the community, and I don’t view his defense as attrocious, and there seems to be team comraderie developed, and that is sometimes overlooked.

              I think Stott and Bohm will become good+ hitters and Bohms defense may continue to improve, but his 6’5″frame and gangliness aren’t prototypical of that position. He does pretty good considering those attributes with coordination improving through age or focused exercises.

              Remember in ’83 or ’80 ?when the Phil’s traded bowa and a few others after the WS?

              Likewise, no disrespect towards Rhys or family, friends or supporters.

              Like

  73. Phillies signed left handed relief pitcher from Kansas State. Wesley Moore, he was born and raised in Canada and has been injured quite often. When healthy he has struck out about 2 an inning while walking 1.

    Like

    1. I checked out Moore’s stats and those so and bb must be rounding to the nearest whole number. I’m seeing more like 1.3 -1.5k/inning and . 5 or less bb/inning.

      Like

  76. Ansinger just did a segment on predicting where shortstops end up.
    Swanson – Mariners
    Correa – Yankees
    Bogaerts – Phillies
    Turner – Cards
    Last April he predicted almost exactly what eventually happened for Puhols.
    Too funny.

    Like

  77. Don53 – interesting . I can see Bogaerts instead of Turner. Slightly less money, not that it matters – better hitter slightly, but capable of moving position easily if necessary — particularly in the long term contract His fielding stats very good this year, not as good in prior years. Phillies lose the stolen base aspect, not entirely, 15 steals vs. Turner’s 40 under the new rules. I’ve seen Braves favorites to land Bogy if Swanson walks. But he is a model hitter in all regards. I still take Turner.

    Like

    1. Please look up stats before you start quoting them. Bogaerts posted his best fielding percentage since 2015, both players stole far fewer bases in 2022 than you suggest.

      Like

  78. I would have Turner play 2b and allow the younger Stott to get established at SS, although I’ve never seen Bryson there longterm. Bogaerts’ flexibility appeals to me as either a SS or 3b, with the inevitable (IMO) shifting of Bohm to 1b. Bohm certainly improved his glove confidence but he’ll never be above average. However, he’s more athletic than Hoskins, who may be playing for a contending west coast team in 2023. Sosa is perfect as the IF utility man. If Bogey is signed, you can circle back to Segura with a much smaller offer, say 2/$22M. I like Turner but the 8 year projection gives me pause. I do agree with some MLBTR predictions that Bogaerts ends up in Dodger blue, Correa in SF, Swanson with the Cubs, and Turner here…and soon I suppose, with the Phillies other roster needs.

    Like

    1. Zaidi/Harris are going all out …they need to catch both the Padres and Dodgers and attendance last year had been lower than expected at Oracle in awhile…..though 2.4M is still a good amount.
      Judge and a shortstop for the future are top of their list.
      I have a slight hope if they decide to move on from Belt…Dave D could dangle Rhys…they have pretty good minor league pitching prospects I would pursue…Whisenhunt and PA kid Black

      Like

    2. There is zero chance they are signing a big name infield free agent AND re-signing Segura. If you fill SS, Stott plays second (trust me, if he can play short, he can easily man second), Bohm at third and Rhys at first base. Other resources will go to pitching, not Segura.

      Like

  79. Alex Anthopoulos is a fast striker. If he knows he can’t return Dansby (and I think he does) he will not wait around to ink a SS. He’s gone on record as saying once we identify our guy we go get him.

    Now its one thing to say that and another to find a cooperating partner in one of these SS FAs.

    I would expect him to go hard after the cheapest one. IMO that would be Xander.

    I also don’t count out the Orioles to be in play for a big splash given their run in the AL East last season and being flush with cash and some good young prospects on the way.

    Like

  80. With regard to Rhys I have to ponder a name that is now available that we could pair with Hall over at 1B

    Abreu-304/378/824 OPS

    Abreu even at age 35 won’t come in at a lesser price tag than Rhys’ arb # but I don’t agree that Rhys isn’t more valuable than Choi. Rhys likely is good enough to net us a 4/5 starter or decent BP guy.

    Abreu has made $118 million in his career and a ring might be more important than $ at this stage.

    Like

    1. Longoria too. He still hits lefties well and easily would pretty good at 1B. Also ring chasing at this stage of his career and probably a lot cheaper than Abreu.

      Like

    2. By the way, of the names I’ve heard Abreu IS a good one. I would prefer Abreu on a one-year $17 million deal over Hoskins on a one-year $12-13 million deal. He is a serious improvement over Hoskins. The question is, do you sign Abreu for, say, 2 years and $32-34 million even though he is old? I might.

      Like

    3. Who said Choi was on the same level w Hoskins? Hoskins is a tier above him, and I don’t even think there would be a discussion about that.

      Like

  81. MLBTR has their top 50 FA predictions up, and the chat that follows. I always find it fun to read. Mostly, I enjoy reading any speculation about the off season. 2 of the 4 guys have us with Trea Turner, the other 2 have us with SP and BP help, one with Rodon and Rogers, the other with Verlander and BP help, but not one that fell in the top 50. In the chat, the 2 that didn’t have us with Trea Turner did not base it on us losing out on our pursuit of him, but because the team decided to go High-priced SP instead, what I call the Hinkie Plan. One did not mention who plays SS or 2B, but 1 of the 2 non-Turner guys has us bringing back Segura at 2/$18M. Like I said, I find it fun to go through, and I am predicting Turner, a mid-level SP without a QO, and Rogers, or another high leverage RP.

    Like

    1. I cannot believe a team would do this……other than the Mets.

      David Robertson. Two years, $16MM…..Steve: Mets / Tim: Royals / Anthony: Rockies / Darragh: Mets

      Like

      1. I mentioned other day some of the middle of the road guys make a killing in FA. So did he sign with Mets? If so, probably about 14 million to high.

        Like

    2. I liked Rogers a when he was with Pittsburgh in a package with Reynolds at the time. Now that he’s a free agent, perfect opportunity for DD to nab a solid, if not elite, lefty reliever. Alvarado may have peaked late in ’22 before he ran out of gas, although his arm is worth keeping despite the volatility.

      Not a Falter fan in the least, even as a #5. C’mon! Go get a division changing starting pitcher…at least a 3. Anybody can grow a Bailey Falter on their farm.

      Like

  82. Astro’s GM, James Click isn’t signing up for 2023………guy had a good 3 year run in difficult times……..wonder where he’ll re-emerge?

    Like

  83. I just glanced at Sporting News picks for top 17.
    Turner to Phillies.
    Judge to Giants.
    Rodon I forget but think Cards.
    They have many going back to team. Nimmo, Swanson are a couple. They had a few more, I think. Bassitt back to Mets, I think.
    It is funny we have not seen Heyman for forever but once again he starts popping up with his numbers and destinations for players.

    Like

      1. He has Turner at $275M, 9 years…..the AAV sounds about right, but the years may be a little too long…unless Big John decides to let both buddies, Harper and Turner ride out into the sunset together after 2031

        Like

        1. I think Turner gets 7 or 8 years. Even 8 years is pretty long for a Turner contract. The Phillies really do need to be concerned about dead years at the back of their contracts. As much as I like DD, he is the author of the ultimate dead year contract – that of David Price. Contracts like those are team killers.

          Like

  85. The MLB’s most valuable franchises heading into 2023 season – NBC Sports Philadelphia

    Some surprising rankings………
    Which MLB teams make the most revenue?
    ………….Philiies…10th …$323M
    What is each MLB team worth?
    ………….Phillies…8th…$2.3B
    Which MLB team has the biggest cash spending budget?
    ……..Phillies…2nd….$140M
    Which MLB teams sell the most merchandise?
    ……..Phillies not in the top ten

    Like

      1. Romus……………..let’s buy the Marlins…….we’ll form a triumpverate……you me and Rocco……..you can kick-in the 990 M ……Rocco & I will split the rest. If you hurry on your decision we can pick up Click and Powell. We’ll get Hinkie to run the farm system, he can put Iron Chefs in as Beta sites to see if it will really fly. Hurry now….time waits for no man!

        Like

        1. Don’t let the disparity of funds in the buy-in, we made you the controlling partner. Rocco is in charge of hiring and firing. I am the traveling monitor to make sure that Hinkie isn’t taking too much General Tso’s chicken home in doggie bags.

          Like

        2. Hah……both Florida teams struggle, with such a large population in the state makes you wonder why.
          I can only guess….most Floridians are transplants from the north somewhere, so they have their favorite teams already entrenched from their youthful days up north.

          Like

          1. Romus, So right you are, as By Saam would say.

            Somebody did a survey a few years ago about the percentages of Floridians who were fans of Major League teams. It turns out, the percentages match almost exactly the percentage of immigrants from other states. For example, 4 percent of Floridians were Phillies fans and 4 percent of Florida immigrants came from the Philadelphia area.

            Like

            1. Frank…..I can only imagine the immigrant fans from the three ‘New’s….England, York and Jersey, along with PA, DE and Maryland…half the state are fans of the six northern teams….Sox, Yanks, Mets, Phils, Os and probably a few of the Nats.

              Like

            2. Very credible recent article on Ian quotes 3 million increase in Fla. from 2010 to 2021 and another article, from 2020 to 2021 population growth in the Ft. Meyers/Coral area 444,xxx to 870,xxx.

              Like

            4. You live in a state that is run well and you’re gonna get a ton of people moving there. Florida, Tennesse and Texas have grown a ton over the last 3-4 years.

              Like

    2. Very surprised on the Merchandise, I personally hate any writing on my shirts, but i see a lot of phillies and eagles,

      Like

  86. BP arms are getting huge deals so far. Montero gets $34.5M from Astros over 3 years. I wonder who we decide to go after? Diaz, Suarez and Montero all off the board for more than I would have guessed.

    Like

    1. Steve Cohen will be paying Diaz long after he retires from baseball…until 2042. That contract elapsed all before him for reliever s. Raisel Iglesias ($16M-AAV) and Liam Hendriks ($14M-AAV) were the only relievers to earn more than $14 M-AAV. Diaz the first to $100M.
      “Diaz will receive deferred payments from the organization until 2042. New York agreed to the deferred payments as part of the deal, providing them with more immediate financial relief in exchange for owing Diaz millions of dollars for the next two decades.”

      Like

      1. Maybe in 2035 he can get together with Bonilla and hoist a few brews in Bobby’s man cave and salute stupid Met annuities.

        Like

        1. Mets will have three now…Bobby Bonilla, Bret Saberhagen and now Diaz.
          2023 Deferred Salaries
          Bobby Bonilla…age 60…$1,193,248
          Bret Saberghagen…age 59….$250,000

          Like

  87. Matt…you are right. It would have been nice to have any of the three of those. One of the predictors had all 3 as possible for Philles at beginning. Lots of money. Some average guys are going to get big pay days.

    Like

  88. Romus…CBS is saying that Yankees are looking into your guy Yoshida to match up with Judge. Do they not know he wants to play with Harper? Yoshida is only 5’8″.

    Like

    2. Fujinami was on par with Shohei Otahni in HS. They were 1A and 1B. Some scouts liked Fujinami more than Ohtani. Unfortunately for Fujinami his NPB career hasn’t gone as well as Otahni’s did. IIRC, he had control problems at one point severe enough for him to be sent down to their minor leagues. Anyway … the point is he’s always had pretty incredible “stuff”. He may just be in need of a top pitching development organization. Anyone know of one?

      Like

      1. Hinkie…that article stated that about Fujinami. Gave some figures on how wild he has been at times. Think he is just a pitcher though. Not a hitter as well?

        Like

        1. Don … yes, Fujinami is a RHP only (does not play the field). But as a pitcher, he was as good as Ohtani on the mound. He’s a tall kid. Throws hard. They call him Mt Fujinami.

          Like

          1. Thanks Hinkie. I think article said two of the three would have to have some money going back to their team in Japan. I forget who was not in that category. Do you think all three come to the U.S. in 23?

            Like

  90. Don, Yoshida wants to play with Harper, but there is no room for him here, barring a Castellanos trade. The Pitchers could fit right in. I would love to see us finally in on a Japanese player. Aside from Hinkie’s Iron Chef Morimoto plan, I don’t know if we ever will be.

    Like

    1. Signing a Japanese star player for the sake of saying that we did isn’t a sound reason for assembling a roster when true needs are glaring. If the Phillies trade both Hoskins AND Castellanos, then MAYBE you consider it. Harper wants Turner, and probably knows little if anything about Yoshida.

      As for Bogaerts, the Phillies will probably use the X-man as leverage in negotiating with Turner’s camp, who will probably use the Yankees as leverage at the same time.

      Like

    1. I have suspicions that the Phillies will DFA Jhailyn Ortiz , and Johan Rojas is a almost a certainty to go on. the 40.
      Even Muzziotti probably gets left off also.

      Like

      1. Agree with Romus. De La Cruz and Rojas replace Ortiz and Muzziotti. Although, I think it’s possible Rojas is used in a trade this winter. Not that I want to see him go (Rojas gives me Juan Samuel vibes, offensively). But Dombrowski may find him expendable with Marsh in CF, and under team control for the next 5 seasons. Rojas could be flipped for an arm or even a MiLB 3B.

        Like

        1. I doubt Rojas goes for another minor league prospect. I also doubt Marsh is locked in as the future CF. If he gets traded, it has to be for a significant upgrade somewhere on the major league roster.

          Out of left field…if Trout agreed to it, would Hoskins, Rojas, Abel and Miller be enough for the Angels? Then move Marsh to LF where he played his gold glove season last year, make Schwarber dh or 1b.

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          1. No. I would assume it would look more like Painter/Able/Stott and I would guess you’d need to throw in another as well. I’m not the best at valuing players but if you’re talking Trout, I think most packages are going to be light.

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            1. The LAAs are not going to trade Trout. Ohtani could get moved this winter (despite what their GM has said), just depends what effect that would have on the sale of the club.

              mark … absolutely disagree with you on Marsh. He’s one of the team’s long term pieces. The Phillies also have no 3B prospects. Not predicting it will happen, but I do think it’s conceivable DD flips Rojas for a 3B prospect. When I get time, I’ll research some possibilities.

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        2. I would hope DD would sign some cf AAA free agents. Marsh made some progress offensively, but is not a lock to keep improving or not to improve hi k ratio.

          As what someone said about Swanson, they really don’t need another one to add to the competition for most strikeouts in a season (or WS.

          So, though I don’t view Rojas as a great contact hitter, I don’t think they can sell out on Marsh yet.

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      2. Romus, I think the same about both, but that may come later when they need the spots on the 40. Right now, it looks like they only protect two – Rojas plus one.

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  93. I’m guessing this is going to be a slow FA. there are massive contract requests out there. Is trea turner worth 32 mil per year? Degrom asking 45.mil per year? Relievers are already getting record deals. Looks like inflation has hit players salaries too. Ryan Howard’s deal looks like a steal now!

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  94. I’ll throw it out there, I know you guys are thinking it too:

    It’s Hindsight … but how do you think Trout felt watching the Phillies in the WS?

    Had to sting.

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    1. Phillies are probably his second favorite baseball team…so it could have been bittersweet.
      Assume he will be in the Citizens Bank Park area tonite….. in his end zone seats at the Linc.

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      1. Romus I just read the Phillies just bought Jims house for 22.4 million, Dont know why but, its great that jim got that much, wonder if they are building new complex? Wonder why there is press conference today.

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  95. Any comments on Sale’s availability? Low risk, high reward. Assuming if it doesn’t take much in prospects and Boston eat some salary may be a good risk instead of paying Rodon 32per for 6 years.

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    1. Sale has thrown a total of 48 1/3 innings in the last 3 years and is still owed more than $50 million dollars over the next 2 years.

      Why would anyone be interested in his availability?

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      1. He has a career whip of 1.042. 3rd among active pitchers behind degrom and Shertzer. Nola is #10. If Boston wants to be in playoff competition this year, I doubt Sale is available.

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    2. I was looking at him too. Aside from velbiw ailments 2-3 yrs ago, his injuries have been freak. Last year,… Broken ribs in spring, broken pinkie in July and broken wrist on non throwing hand in August or Sept.

      I think I were Boston , I would keep him to see if he will have his velocity and be dominant again. That would be the best way to get their mineyto get their money out of him. He is in the top of the class 9f active players for whip.

      Otherwise, I think he’d be a great, super addition to wheeler, Nola et al. With the Phil’s unloading ohoppe already, I don’t think they’d have the farm system to give what Boston would want without painter.

      Maybe if Boston would eat 5 mill/yr and take lesser rated prospects like Ortiz or Jordan viaars ???

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      1. If you got him for minimal prospects and Boston ate like 5 per year (some is also deferred but doesn’t know how that works). So for example Ortiz and another prospect for Sale @10 per for next two season. It is worth the risk to me. If he fails, hopefully Painter or McGarry will be ready by then

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  98. Discussion comments are closed for some reason. I just wanted to note that Eflin signed with the Jays for 3 years/$40M.

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  99. Eflin to Rays. 3/$40m. Good for him. I respect the Rays as they are a really smart franchise, but wow, that seems like a big deal for him. I guess they feel that he is healed. Wish him luck. But good for him for getting that bag. big deal

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