Open Discussion: Week of February 7th

Weekly Discussion

Only two changes to the Payroll and AAV balances this week.  I’ll keep updating until opening day or the 26-man roster is set.

The Phillies signed Chase Anderson raising their running payroll to $175,215,962.  This includes nineteen players under contract plus an estimate for seven players under team control with 0-3 years experience ($4.9M).

The Phillies’ salary against the competitive balance tax is $189,578,782 and includes estimates for the rest of the 40-man roster ($2.25M) and player benefits ($15.5M).  With a CBT threshold of $210M, the Phillies are around $20,421,218 under the tax threshold.  (see spreadsheet)

The February 1st deadline for chosen affiliates to accept the PDLs has been delayed 7-10 days at the affiliates’ request.

February 1st was also the deadline for the announcement of spring training stuff.  Of course, there was no public announcement, but I’ve heard enough to speculate what’s likely to happen (assuming everything starts as already planned).

The organization probably has to conduct spring training in three phases – MLB/AAA, AA/A+/A, and extended.  Limit of 75 players during phase one including rehabbers.  Phase one will go north and be replaced by phase two.  Phase one will include either the Phillies and IronPigs or the Phillies and an Alternate Training Site.  After a month or so, phase two will disperse to begin their regular seasons and, if phase one included an Alt Site, it will begin their regular season.  The number of ST games could be decreased to accommodate the medical tests and quarantining that will surely be part of ST’s startup (so, maybe 14 home games instead of 17).  Extended could last all summer.  The GCL was in danger of being canceled for one year.  If some sort of season is put together the games could be played within the regional divisions that were always part of the league set up.  There are three clusters of teams, I think -those north of the bay, those south of the bay, and those in South Florida.  Bus travel will be kept to a minimum.  If there’s no formal league, teams could independently schedule games against the teams in their region.  The past three years, Kapler and Girardi brought a lot of players over from minor league camp to take part in the games.  Without minor league camp running at the same time, the Phillies will have a shortage of position players available.  Maybe ST games are shortened to 8 or 7 innings.  Maybe they roll innings.  That won’t be a problem unless there are fans in attendance.  If there are fans, I expect them to be limited to around 2500.  Expect lines.  Especially at concessions and the store. I don’t have any feeling yet if they are going to take the temperatures of fans at the gate.  There will be spacing in lines and in the stands.  I would expect broadcast coverage to be handled as it was during the 2020 regular season.  I expect most baseball writers to stay home.  They will have the same level of access as they had last season – zoom conferences.  I don’t expect their bosses to pay for them to come down and watch games that they can watch from home.  I expect the Complex to be closed until maybe June.  I expect to attend Threshers games after I get my shots, not before.

FWIW, I think the Phillies are close to done on the free agent market.  Accept its existence or not, I think they are very close to the payroll limit that Middleton set (and probably reset when he hired Dave Dombrowski).  The number is a little higher than I thought last week, and I think the Phillies are within $10M of that figure.  That doesn’t mean they will spend up to that figure now. They will likely leave themselves a few million for potential additions at the trade deadline.  I think the Phillies have a couple offers on the table and are waiting for the recipients to reassess their value.  (The players will have to come down to the Phillies’ offer.)  I listened to the Matt Moore press conference, twice.  Sure, they are looking to improve around the edges, but I don’t think the Phillies are actively courting any of the starting pitchers mentioned in the comments section.  Rather, I believe they have open offers to a bench guy and a reliever. I also believe that the offers are for a lot less than the players want.

I wonder if their plan B for a bench player isn’t already in the organization.  Ronald Torreyes is already under contract, played for Girardi for three seasons in New York (2016-18), compiled a .281/.308/.374 slash in those three seasons (the only three seasons he accumulated 100+ plate appearances), is only 28-years-old, has played 2b/ss/3b/lf/cf/rf in his MLB career, and doesn’t strike out much (13%).

I scoured Latin American press releases and found another seven IFAs signed by the Phillies.  That brings the total of known signees to 22.  I didn;t have to waste the time, the Phillies announced all 22 0ver the weekend.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • February 14, 2021 – Report date for major league ST
  • February 17, 2021 – First ST workout
  • February 27, 2021 – First spring training game v. Blue Jays
  • April 1, 2021 – Opening Day for ALL 30 teams
  • April 2021 – ST for Double-A and Single-A begins
  • May 2021 – Opening day for Double-A and Single-A
  • June 25, 2021 – Close of the 2020 international signing period
  • July 11-13, 2021 – 2021 Amateur Draft

The rosters and lists are up to date as of February 7th … 332 players in the org

Transactions (newest transactions are in bold print)

2/06/2021 – RHP Hector Rondon assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
2/06/2021 – RHP David Paulino assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
2/05/2021 – Twins claimed RHP Ian Hamilton off waivers from Phillies
2/03/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Chase Anderson
2/03/2021 – Phillies signed FA LHP Matt Moore
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Hector Rondon to an MiLB contract with invite to ST
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA CF Jesus Garibaldi
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Ji Tae Lee
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Carlos Milan
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Ender Paz
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Danyony Pulido
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Yoangel Ramos
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Saul Teran
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Yemal Flores
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C Rickardo Perez
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Marco Soto
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Leonardo Rondon
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Raylin Heredia
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Yemil Rosario
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C Dervin Andrade
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Daniel Mejia
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Juan Melendez
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Julio Hereaux
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C/OF Solardo Rodriguez
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Deivi Cabrera
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Joset Aparacio
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Jorge Garcia
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Alfredo Alderete
2/02/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP David Paulino to an MiLB contract with invite to ST
1/30/2021 – Phillies traded INF Kyle Holder to Reds for cash
1/30/2021 – Phillies signed FA SS Didi Gregorious
1/30/2021 – Phillies traded P Cole Irvin to Athletics for cash
1/29/2021 – Phillies designated RHP Ian Hamilton for assignment
1/29/2021 – Phillies signed FA C JT Realmuto
1/29/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Ivan Nova to an MiLB contract
1/27/2021 – DSL Red released CF Miguel Tejeda
1/27/2021 – DSL Red released RHP Yeison Sanchez
1/25/2021 – Reading released C Henri Lartigue
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released OF Tucker Maxwell
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released CF Yerwin Trejo
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released C Jesse Wilkening
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released RHP Seth McGarry
1/25/2021 – Williamsport released RHP Jake Kinney
1/25/2021 – GCL West released 3B Luis Rojas
1/25/2021 – GCL East released SS Jose Mercado
1/25/2021 – GCL West released 2B Jose Rivera
1/25/2021 – GCL West released C Kevin Escalante
1/25/2021 – GCL West released RHP Lizardo Herrera
1/25/2021 – GCL East released 3B Jevi Hernandez
1/25/2021 – GCL West released LHP Austin Crowson
1/25/2021 – GCL East released RF Luis Matos
1/25/2021 – LHP Hunter Milam retired
1/25/2021 – DSL Red activated RHP Yeison Sanchez from the restricted list
1/25/2021 – DSL White released RHP Elias Liriano
1/25/2021 – DSL White released RHP Alexis Herrera

324 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of February 7th”

  2. Forgot about Torreyes and he does make for a decent option off the bench. I think its smart to save some payroll in the event they want to make an in season move should it be warranted.

    I don’t think its hyperbole to say this team as it stands is NOT a WS contender and there really isn’t a player on the market that would make them one.

    My wife received her 2nd shot last Thursday. She said her arm hurt more than the first and had a pretty bad headache that lasted into Friday afternoon. Outside of that nothing adverse.

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    1. My wife got her shot Thursday too, She was sick for about 12 hours, she is health care worker.for her sister so she was in the first group,

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    2. DMAR – what do you think would make them a World Series contender.
      I mean not many people thought Nationals were WS contenders this time in 2019 (at least not many I heard). Granted they need a lot of things to go right.

      1) There lineup is as good as many that have contended over the years.
      2) Nola and Wheeler pretty good 1, 2. If they stay healthy and Eflin improves?
      3) if they can get lucky in the 4 and 5 slots (ie anibel Sánchez)
      4) there bullpen almost has to improve. Hoping they get another good backend guy in the “I need a contract” bin before to far in spring training?

      Just wondering what more you think they need to compete. I think the biggest hurdle is getting in. The East is gong to beat each other up…

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      1. to be World Series contenders

        1. Eflin, Moore, Howard or someone else, end up all have much better seasons then expected, while Nola/Wheeler are their usual self or better. If that ended up giving them one of the best SP groups in MLB that would be a start.

        2. Harper, Hoskins, JT, Didi, have career years or close to it. Bohm shows he’s a legit star in the making.

        3. Some young arms step up in the pen and look great. Brogdon, JoJo, etc..

        4. Depth comes through at the plate, Kingery, Haseley, Quinn, have strong years.

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  3. Like

  4. I received both shots and was lucky enough not to have any side effects. Praying that’s the case with everyone that gets it as ive known some who has chills etc.

    I’m excited for this season. There will be some normal hopefully by June. With the minors playing we will see progression but our farm and perhaps more call ups. Last year was a wash for most players unless they were in the pool or whatever.

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  5. My wife’s mother get her 2nd tomorrow. We are scheduled for 1st on March 4th. Indiana just opened our age group to register last week. Hope all goes well for everyone.

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  6. We got our first shots on 1/30 and second one to be on 2/27 (the day we fly out of philly for the Keys. i had to change our flight until later in the day. hopefully no reactions will turn up. i have heard stories of both ways. we’ll see. hopefully looking forward to see Gowdy in reading this year (if they play). i think he has a shot to make it.
    gm

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  7. Jim,

    Any reason you listened to the Matt Moore press conference 2 times? Either makes me worried or excited; typical Phillies fan.

    Getting 2nd shot next week here in NC but skipping ST in FL this year. Still don’t trust it out there and will probably live the same lifestyle until “all is well!”.

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    1. Too many of the people I follow on Twitter seemed to be under the impression that the presser was proof that more and increased spending was imminent based on Dombrowski’s answers. I didn’t get that impression and listened again and confirmed my first impression.

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  8. Maybe this has been addressed before (sorry, I’m a newcomer), but most of the competitive balance payroll estimates I’ve seen are around $195M (spotrac) or $198M (FanGraphs). Do you know what accounts for the discrepancy between those estimates and your $189M number?

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    2. For one, Herrera dropped off my list. I’ve added him back. Some of FanGraph’s projections are higher than mine. Same with Sportrac’s. I get mine from another site.

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  9. Why was the first ST game on 2/27 struck from above? They would be a team within their pod.. The game is still listed on the Phillies website..

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  10. Does this salary data mean Trevor Rosenthal is out of the planning now? Or does Archie Bradley mean that TR is out of the planning now?

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    1. I think the salary requirements of most of the remaining free agents means they are not in the Phillies’ plans unless they lower their expectations and accept what the Phillies are offering.

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  11. IFA signee RHP Ji Tae Lee has good size @ 6′ 2″….240 lbs.
    He must be older than the usual 16-year old signees..

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    1. per mlb.com (FWIW)
      Ji Tae Lee

      Full Name: Ji Tae Lee
      Age: 20 (January 12, 2001)
      Birthplace: Suwon, South Korea
      Bats/Throws: R/R Ht: 6′ 2″ Wt: 240

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        1. Ok thanks….did not think he was a 16-year old baseball player at that size…football player or sumo wrestler maybe.

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        1. Yeah…. the link seems to be gone. Sorry. Could uh/should uh included it first time. I’ll check again later today but not optimistic

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  12. I kept seeing Brad Miller’s name thrown about for possible bench player (I would suspect he would play a lot though)
    I can see a RP brought in. And it intrigues me that they could go for another SP but it is highly unlikely. Maybe another one on a Minor League deal ala Ivan Nova contract type.

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    1. A consideration regarding Minor league contracts with a ST invite is that ST will be limited to 75 bodies. That includes the 40-man roster, 8 current NRIs from outside the organization, and about 10 players on rehab. That leaves 17 openings for ST. Any more invites to players outside the organization will decrease the number of slots for guys in the organization. So, who gets the 17 invitations? Gonna need catchers – Cabral, O’Hoppe, Duran for a start. We know that Williams and Hennigan are on their way back from Australia for ST. Add 5, pick 12 more. The 40-man and NRIs are pitcher heavy, so we need some position players – Stott, Hall, Listi, Stephen, Brito, Randolph, Vierling, Guzman, and Ortiz would leave spots for Parkinson, Hammer, and Warren.

      Now that impromptu list leaves out guys who should be included like Bettencourt, Leftwich, Singer, Gamboa, Cesar, Eastman, Garcia, Hernandez, McArthur, Miller,…

      So, you see there is a potential problem with extending as many NRIs as in previous seasons.

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      1. Seems crazy that guys in for rehab who won’t practice or play are given so much weight against the 75-man total.. That group should be set aside and if they heel to the point where their able to return to ST then remove a player from camp similar to a DFA when room on the 40-man must be made open.

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        2. Looks like they might not count against the 75-man total now. I’ve heard conflicting sides. I think they are realizing that that restriction on the limit has an adverse impact on the players preparing for AAA/Alternate Training Site. I’ve heard that they won’t count against the limit AND they won’t be allowed at the Complex when the ST players are there. Rehab visits will have to be concluded before ST or held after ST each day.

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  13. One bench spot will go to a middle IF and that will be Chatham or Torreys most likely. Other bench spots will go to Kingery, Quinn and Knapp. There’s still one more bench spot not spoken for and that person needs to play 1b and LF. Gonzalez, Miller, and Gosselin seem to be the top candidates. I do expect a few more pitchers on minor league deals too. I agree with Jim though, not the bigger name SP who will cost more.

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      1. Jim…we agree on that…though I want the Phillies just to let him go and have one of the lower tier teams pick him up and have him start at first base on their Triple A team….maybe a team like the Ms or Rangers, or even the Rockies.
        He will not get the opportunity he needs in Philly

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      2. I don’t know about that. The problem is that we have never seen him play above AA and, in AA, he was just okay and not really projectable as a big league slugger (just didn’t make enough contact). Add to that the issue that he has no positional flexibility and you’ve already got Bohm and Realmuto possibly playing first on rare occasions when Hoskins is sitting. Unless Hall takes a huge step forward and the league gets the DH I’m not seeing a place for him on this team.

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  14. Hey Fellow Phillies Phans,

    Check out this weekly Podcast, Philly Phive Podcast, https://www.buzzsprout.com/1378015/7714300 podcast.
    This my son from NC who was born in the South but has the deepest roots of the family from South Philly. He started the past year during the pandemic to express his love for the 5 Philly teams,
    ; includes the Union. This is his 17th episode and I usually listen thru the week until the next episode. Each segment us a little over 10 minutes and it highlights each team’s weekly happenings.

    Hope you enjoy.

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  15. Again MLB will be changing the specifications of the baseballs….they will look to deaden the ball to produce less HRs…pitchers ought to be happy.
    Also 5 teams will employ humidors ….balls stored in the humidor have a higher water content than they would if they were stored in the dugout, making the balls “mushier” and heavier …the science behind it….prevent balls from drying out, and thus carrying farther in high-elevation parks, and the ‘mushier’ balls come off the bat with lower exit velocities.

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    1. Don53:
      Mets, Red Sox, Mariners and DBacks–along with the Rockies……..adding 5 more will bring it to 10 total …….the Diamondbacks, saw offense in their stadium plummet …..public analyst Derek Carty, said home run rates dropped by nearly 20%

      Mush Ball is back.

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    2. Physically not in Philadelphia to sign the contract? He took the most precaution last season, wearing a mask on the field. Maybe he’s cutting down on travel and planning to sign in Clearwater? I don’t know. Just guessing.

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  18. So … for 2021:

    * 7 inning doubleheaders
    * runner on second to start extra innings
    * no DH
    * 10 playoff teams (5 NL/5 AL)

    Obviously, having just 5 teams make the playoffs is a bad thing for the Phillies. You figure the Dodgers, Padres, Cardinals, and Braves are excellent bets to qualify. That means the Phillies will battle it out with the Mets and Brewers for the final postseason berth. IMO, the Nats are getting too much love.
    On the other hand, (even though I liked it last season) no NL DH should benefit the Phillies. Rhys Hoskins would be their primary DH, but he’s fine at 1B. OTOH, no DH means big defensive deficiencies for the Mets and Braves. Dom Smith is a well below avg LFer, and Marcell Ozuna is an absolute butcher out there.

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  19. Like

    1. So … for 2021:

      * 7 inning doubleheaders
      * runner on second to start extra innings
      * no DH
      * 10 playoff teams (5 NL/5 AL)

      Obviously, having just 5 teams make the playoffs is a bad thing for the Phillies. You figure the Dodgers, Padres, Cardinals, and Braves are excellent bets to qualify. That means the Phillies will battle it out with the Mets and Brewers for the final postseason berth. IMO, the Nats are getting too much love.
      On the other hand, (even though I liked it last season) no NL DH should benefit the Phillies. Rhys Hoskins would be their primary DH, but he’s fine at 1B. OTOH, no DH means big defensive deficiencies for the Mets and Braves. Dom Smith is a well below avg LFer, and Marcell Ozuna is an absolute butcher out there.

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      1. I hope there are not many double-headers..I do not like those “before you know it, its the last inning” games……though the bullpen cannot be as bad as last season and looks to be improved.

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        1. I love the 7 inning double headers. I don’t like the man on second rule. I don’t really like the DH rule for the NL but I think that will be a no brainer in the next CBA.

          One caveat to the 7 inning double-headers. I read a Marlins article this morning which suggested no team had more than the Marlins and they clearly reaped the rewards of them because their BP may have been worse than ours.

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      2. Just to clarify … for the Mets, no DH means Pete Alonso (who would be their DH) plays 1B, and Dominic Smith (who is an excellent defensive 1Bman) has to play LF (where he is below avg).

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        1. Also to clarify, insiders are saying that the negotiations are not yet final – there’s still a possibility for expanded playoffs and DH this year – and it could all happen at the last minute, so stay tuned.

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  20. From Dombrowski’s comments concurrent with the Chase Anderson signing, it does not appear that a Rosenthal or Marwin Gonzalez are going to be joining us. So, maybe a Gosselin and whoever is left without a job, that will take less than $2M, and can be BP help I still don’t think that we have enough in the BP, but maybe one or more of the lottery tickets will pan out. The Bench is pretty weak, especially from the left side. I think we are set with SPs, I believe that Anderson and Matt Moore are in the SR, Spencer in extended ST, and VV elsewhere or in the BP.

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    1. Joe has said he likes the six main BP arms now (Bradley, Alvardo, Brogdon, Romero, Neris and Coonrod) …all throw something different
      Not sure what Hale, Quezada will bring…then there is also Rosso, Dohy, Suarez, Llovera and Cristopher Sanchez available.

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      1. Listening to Joe over the years he is always an optimist. I like him for that but those 1st six seem to me to still have lot of question marks. Hope I am wrong. I still think Phillies are lacking for quality BP arms. We all know what that meant a year ago.

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  21. With Moore and Anderson in the fold, does that mean the Phillies won’t be signing Jerome Williams? He’s only 39 and hasn’t pitched since 2016 so he’s well rested. The end of the season when the Phillies got him to eat innings, he pitched in nine games to a 2.62 ERA. That earned him a $2MM contract for the next year which obviously he couldn’t duplicate or even come close. Those were certainly the bad old days but Jerome served his purpose. And I loved his glove.

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  22. The odds to sign another SP is good with 20+ major league free agent SP still available. The odds to sign another RP (or 2) is really good with 40+ still available. Not sure if it will be someone who gets a Major League contract or not but I would say they will bring at least one of them in if not more than that.

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  23. Good points. Soon all the seats at the table are going to be taken. Some of these guys are not going to want to be left without a seat. There are a few difference makers left. Most seem to be guys on the fringe who in the right setting may be able to contribute.

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  24. Someone may have already shared but why are they waiting so long to announce Didi. Is it having to take someone skate off the 40 man?

    On a side note what is the earliest tat they can put someone like Seranthony on IL?

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  25. ESPN Insider Dave Shoenfield lists the best fits for the remaining top 10 FAs.

    Best fit for Trevor Rosenthal: Phillies
    Best fit for Jackie Bradley Jr: Phillies

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        1. ….,,, but, Uncle Rocco, you always told me that Squirrel Tooth Sally had better moves than Large Marge!

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  27. Pecota is showing Mets with 96 wins. Nats-85, Phillies-83, Braves-82, Marlins-68.
    Thoughts. Seems Mets and Braves are way off.

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    1. Don53…Pecota had the Cubs at 83 or so in 2015…they won 97.
      I do not know how they can keep on going with their yearly prediction follies.
      I like to see what their annual error rate is….with even a variance of plus or minus 3 games .per team

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      1. Just saw on MLB that from 17-19 Pecota got 12 of 18 division winners.
        Only 1 division all correct.
        Only 32 out of 96 times did they come within 5 games of their projection.
        Seems like what you were saying. Just kind of shots in the dark.
        Sherman said he could get 32 out of 96 correct within 5 games just off the top of his head.

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  28. Think those best fits would help. But think too much money involved. Saw Bradley is still wanting a 4 year contract. Sure that comes down but how much.

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  29. I agree, Don53, The Braves and Mets numbers are both off. With Gosselin gone to the Angels, maybe Brad Miller? We need someone. I agree, also, that if there was not a Salary Cap in place with us, Rosenthal and Bradley would be great pickups. JBJ is much more noted for his terrific D, but his offensive numbers are much better than what we produced in CF. Unfortunately, I don’t see that money being spent.

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    1. Gosselin to Angel’that is a shame. I would have liked him to return but that may allow LA to trade Trout to Phillies. Lol.

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  31. MLB announced the health and safety protocols for the upcoming season and spring training. They included seven-inning doubleheaders and a runner on second base to start extra innings.

    It seems incredibly disingenuous to have these two changes as health and safety protocols to protect pitchers, but not have the designated hitter. It seems that the owners are going to hoist themselves on that petard rather than give in on the subject.

    IMO, the DH should be considered as a move in the best interests of the pitchers – without expanded playoffs or any other issue the owners want to attach. And, I’m not even a proponent for the DH.

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    1. Agree….DH last season…DH more than likely in 2022….why not just allow it again in 2021.
      Seems to me, MLB must want this to be a leverage in Dec vs the union
      Joe G wants it…he saw Masa Tanaka run the bases a few years back and pull up with a hammy.
      Charlie Morton probably wants it also.

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  32. With the new rule, it will be possible to have a 4 man bench and a 14 man staff. That would make it more critical that the 4th bench guy play many positions, including 1b and LF obviously. Kingery, Quinn and Knapp should have the first 3 spots if Haseley starts. A 4 man bench would rule out the utility IF spot.

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      1. Hinkie… you are correct.
        .”…… 26-man active rosters from the start of the season through August 31, as well as the postseason. Teams will be limited to carrying 13 pitchers except from September 1 to the end of the regular season, when this limit rises to 14.”

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      2. Now not sure what happens when Roman Quinn comes in to pitch or Vinny goes out to LF…..is there a subtraction and/or addition factor that goes on there?

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      3. This from the protocols and reported in Rosenthal’s Athletic article –

        “The limitations on the number of pitchers on the active roster and the restriction on position players pitching shall not apply.”

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        1. Ok…so they changed it from last year’s ruling……apparently things will be fluid as they navigate this season.
          I see the NHL postponed the Flyers game tonight and the two later this week because two players tested positive.
          Over a 6 month baseball season I expect we will see those things also.

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  33. OK, So the 26 man looks like this so far. JTR and Knapp, Hoskins, Segura, Didi, Bohm, Cutch, Quinn/Haseley, Harper, Kingery. So even if one of Chatham or Maton make the team, that leaves another spot. Pitching is Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson, Bradley, Neris, Romero, Brogdon, Alvarado, Coonrod, Spencer and VV. I think either Spencer starts in XST, or VV gets traded, but I see another Pitcher added to the BP. Brogdon could be sent down, but I have him making the team. I think we need that RP with a different look, and a bat that can play a little, but with a bat that helps as a PH.

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    1. I think there’s a chance they’ll go with a 4 man bench and a 14 man staff. That wasn’t permitted last season.

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        1. Going to be lots of 5 and 6 inning starts. Going to need lots of RPs. More 7 inning doubleheaders also requiring 6 or 7 SPs. A 4 man bench means Knapp plus 3 guys who will play a lot.

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          1. true- though they will be able to add a man for the doubleheaders again i assume-i think somehow they end up going with the DH anyway- no pitcher in baseball has swung a bat for a year- and with all the Covid protocols, pitchers are going to spend time in the batting cages again?

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    1. Given the earlier mention of pecota, I looked at its team predictions for 2020, and the average error was 3.9 wins. That would be excellent it it was a 162-game season, not so much for a 60-game season. It seems that pecota has been about as good (or as bad, if you prefer) as the Vegas lines. There are so many moving parts (injuries, trades, mid-season call-ups, etc.), it is not surprising.

      In 2020, pecota predicted that the Braves would go 30 – 30, so they were off by 5 wins. I took a quick look at their six best hitters and compared their career OPS+ to their 2020 OPS+.

      name career 2020
      d’Arnaud 100 138
      Freeman 139 186
      Albies 107 99
      Swanson 87 110
      Acuna 133 155
      Ozuna 117 175

      Every player except Albies was significantly more productive in 2020 as measured by OPS+. It makes me wonder how much regression we would have seen if it was a 162-game season.

      I understand that there is a lot to criticize with the methodology (Not having the time to run something more sophisticated, I used stats that were readily available, ). First, the career number includes the 2020 season. Had it been removed, the overperformance would have been even more pronounced. Comparing 2017 – 2019 OPS+ against 2020 would have been better. There are other criticisms, I’m sure, but there is little question that the meat of their line-up had exceptional years. pecota would never have predicted that.

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  36. I am trying to be positive, but the defense at first, third and center field so far is going to be bad, I think we have a good offense but not defense, Pitching is short in bullpen,

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  37. Pitchers and Catchers report in 1 week. I have to believe there is another BP arm added. There are several who would be a welcome addition, even if we don’t pay for Rosenthal. And, we need another bat off the bench. I am not as concerned about the D at 1st and 3rd as Rocco, but CF needs both an offensive and defensive big jump. We need excellent D in CF, and not only did Quinn/Haseley not hit, I was really disappointed in their D.

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  38. Keith Law, in his ranking of the farm teams around the league, has us 27. I know he is just one opinion, and I disagree with him often, but I think we are too low. He is already writing off Haseley, and calls MM and Gowdy and Stobbe, along with Randolph all whiffs. I am not saying we have a Top 15 team, and clearly Atlanta has done a much better job, and SD can be still really high after a few trades, but I was wondering how everyone else felt.

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    1. I just dont understand how Middleton isnt going nuts with all these bad picks, same with laurie keep ing Howie, You build thru the draft and get missing pieces in trades or free agents, but the back bone of a good team is the draft, unless your willing to pay thru the nose the tax,

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      1. In fairness Rocco he has made some changes in that area as far as I can tell. Granted he waited a little too long but that is all water under the bridge.

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    2. Sadly and for a change I agree with him…

      That ranking was 5 years in the making however. Those that were saying they didn’t want to go through enough rebuild marginalize a fact that we never really rebuilt.

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    3. Matt, whether we’re 27 or 21, it matters little because the Phillies are definitely in the bottom third of MLB systems. But I am encouraged that the bullet is heading upward with recent hires in the front office and scouting & development departments, as well as the big league coaching staff. 2021 will be a bellwether season in determining which direction the system is heading. Personally, I think Abel, Stott and a few lower level talents like Garcia and Rojas will turn out. The tricky part for Dombrowski is if and how he transacts the present young talent into maintaining a competitive major league roster. That’s his MO.

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  39. I am so tired of these players and owners, Mark Cuban not playing the anthem, Russell Wilson telling the owner, i want say in player personal, Joel Embid playing when he wants, Irving same thing, They just keep letting them get away with more and more, now 7 inning games,, Lucky i have my horses they dont complain

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  40. Phillies did not hit on those high draft picks like the Nats and Astros did.
    Sometimes you get lucky. I still think of Buehler could be here. I was a big fan of the Florida pitcher who is on KC. I really liked him and his competiveness. Cold here in Indiana. Thought of ST though is nice..

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  42. KLaw does say that he thinks the change to Barber looks hopeful, and the reports on the last 2 drafts are encouraging. So, he wasn’t completely negative. I still have hope for MM, and I think Haseley can play. But, they have to do it, not just have me being hopeful. We don’t have to use 20/20 hindsight. There were many on here who wanted to go in different directions, and, it turns out, they were right. I think Bohm and Abel are really good picks, and I am very hopeful that Stott can hit. Looking for a number of break out years coming.

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  43. So a trade was made and then didi was finalized. Figured something was up.

    Phillies also sign Kintzler to minor league deal

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  44. I replied to Hawkeye above. I’m reposting here so that all are aware of this change.

    “Looks like they might not count against the 75-man total now. I’ve heard conflicting sides. I think they are realizing that that restriction on the limit has an adverse impact on the players preparing for AAA/Alternate Training Site. I’ve heard that they won’t count against the limit AND they won’t be allowed at the Complex when the ST players are there. Rehab visits will have to be concluded before ST or held after ST each day.”

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  46. Seems a little humorous that MLB scroller shows Hembree at this time as the only notable departure from last year. Guess it is because maybe none of the other notable free agents that have scrolled all winter have found jobs. JT and Didi back with Phillies but there were so many on the list.

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  47. The Phillies are reported to have signed RHP Brandon Kintzler to a minor league contract. Kintzler turned down a major league offer with the Marlins that had a lower guarantee. Kintzler would make $3M plus incentives if he makes the club, more than the Marlins offered.

    The following is all spec on my part. I believe that there is an agreement in place that Kintzler will be added to the 40-man when Dominquez goes on the 60-man IL. If true, the Phillies are probably done in the relief market.

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    1. I don’t get the whole Kintzler thing. He’s a guy who pitches to contact on a team with below avg defense. I’m not expecting this to be a fruitful relationship for the Phillies.
      Why not just bite the bullet, and throw 8M (?) at Trevor Rosenthal? Yes, there is some risk in that, but (more importantly) there’s a whole lot of reward in Rosenthal.

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    3. I agree with you Jim, that’s what I thought immediately as well. A guy like this is not taking a minor league deal normally and teams font offer $3M to those guys either. I think he’s a nice addition.

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  48. Kintzler seems like a nice pick up. When is the date those can be placed on the 60-man IL. Do Phillies only have Dominquez available for list?

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  49. I wouldn’t sleep on this Kintzler signing, he was the Marlins closer last year and saved 12 games, 1 more than the ENTIRE Phillies team, which was led by Neris’s 5! This seems like yet another under the radar, quiet move by Dombrowski that might pay off in spades for the team this year. Again, it reminds me so much of Gillick, who was the master of the small move that would ultimately win 1-2 games a year and cumulatively added up to 6-8 wins over the entire season.

    From now on I will refer to all Phillie moves as BD [Before Dombrowski] and AD [after Dombrowski] because to me this team in NO way resembles the organization as it was assembled BD.

    One more thing to keep in mind…given DD’s proclivity for making deals I suspect the team we have now will not be the team we see in August. He is still getting a feel for the roster and trusting his lieutenants who have been with the club BD [Girardi and Fuld being the two primary ones.] However he has made it clear on several occasions that ultimately the buck will stop with him and at some point he will feel the need to improve the club based on his personal views of the team and when he does he will move.

    There just is a different feel to the team now and as for me, I haven’t felt quite this way since Howard collapsed in a heap at the end of the 2011 playoffs. I felt, and told friends then, that I thought the Phillies Era was over and though many thought I was crazy, history would show this was correct. I know feel with DD that we are now leaving the darkness and re-entering the sunlight.

    Oh, it might not show immediately results wise and I suspect we probably won’t make the playoffs this year. But if I was to compare it to another season I would suggest 2006. That team didn’t make the playoffs but were good, competitive and you feel better days were ahead. That’s how I feel about this club. All because we have left the BD Era and entered the AD Era.

    Truly entering the modern era…

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  50. Solid move. Going on record to predict playoffs this season. If I am wrong though we now have many potential trade pieces.

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  51. I still suspect they will bring in another SP. 40 man roster spots are getting harder to find as I would believe they may have to trade players now. Quinn, Sanchez, VV, and Hale are the only ones I would figure they would part with. The rest would be traded only if a very good offer comes in.
    I would like them to add Brad Miller to the bench.

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  54. Now signed Matt Joyce to a minors deal. Another low risk signing. LH bat with some power and with some decent numbers in the past few years.

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  55. I usually agree with Hinkie, but I like Kintzler. He has pitched very well for both the Marlins and the Cubs, and I also believe our IF defense is better this year. I think a bench bat and that’s it until the trade deadline.

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  56. Agree CD on Kintzler. I think if Phillies had saved half of the games they lost last year they would have been right there with the Braves for the division. I thought Kintzler did nice job in games I saw last year. in a full season he would have had around 30 saves if he had been on same pace. I would take that.

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  57. One more thing worth mentioning about all these signings [and we are now in the mid 20s AD]is that this indicates to me a real trust in his scouts, something that must be almost a feeling of a breath of fresh air for said scouts after all those years of BD’s seeming attitude of “well I will have to check this out with my analytics guys first.” Look, there is a place for analytics and I would never suggest we get rid of it.

    But I have always believed in the marriage between the two, the scouts on the ground and the analytics in their offices and now with AD I believe the marriage will FINALLY take place! Remember, Amaro was a definite anti-analytics guy and Klentak was almost the complete antithesis of the guy he replaced. In Dombrowski I feel we now have both.

    Its apparent that scouts are being listened to [even Harper!] and DD’s philosophy is that if even 2 of the 20+ hurlers they signed turns out to help the team it will have been worth it.

    And the signing of Joyce is yet another low risk, high reward move. It was obvious the team needed another left handed hitter power hitter off the bench and while Joyce may or may not answer the need, we certainly can tell that DD and Co. are viewing the teams weaknesses and strengths in the same vein that we are. And to me, thats a good thing…

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  58. Joyce is a decent bat to add but he doesn’t play 1b so they must not be done with the bench. Joyce, if he makes the team, could get some starts in LF. To me it means that Kingery will likely stay in the OF backing up 3 spots.

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  59. Wonder if Joe and Dombrowski will take a chance with David Robertson again…on a minor league contract. He says he is healthy.

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      1. Robertson didn’t fail us on the mound.
        I’d say ‘fool me once…’ for Arrietta. Or Hale (why is he still on the 40 man?). But IF Robertson is healthy he’s worth a shot on a minor league deal.

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  60. With today’s flurry of depth transactions, here’s my feel for the major league roster going north in April…

    Starting rotation: Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore(L), Anderson. (Howard begins 2021 in XST, Phillies will likely use up to 8 or 9 SPs throughout)

    Catchers: Realmuto and Knapp(S)

    Infield: Bohm, Chatham (or Maton(L), Gregorius(L), Hoskins, Kingery, Segura

    Outfield: Harper(L), Haseley(L), Joyce(L), McCutchen, Moniak(L) (Kingery would be another righthanded compliment in the OF mix)

    Bullpen: Alvarado(L), Bradley, Brogdon, Coonrod, Neris, Romero(L), Kintzler, Velasquez

    Qualifier – by the end of camp, I would not be surprised to see any of the following moved: Velasquez, Segura, Kingery, Moniak or Haseley. But I doubt such moves come until the deadline.

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    1. mark829…I think Luke Williams will go north, ilo of Nick Maton/Chatham…..he is a NRI again for ST and played well in the ABL and has the versatility to play all infield positions and possibly LF.
      And coming up on 25-years old this season……he is ready to take the next step up.

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        1. rocco……sure he is not Cesar, but he may be able to hit better than Kingery did this last season.
          He does have one advantage from the start of the camp…..he just took 77 PAs in the ABL against live pitching, all be it probably Double A caliber, …slashing.292/.299/.361 …so he will come into camp already in rhythm with his swing.

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    2. Mark8, I agree.
      I’ll add that I believe we’re gonna be pleasantly surprised by end of year by Haseley, Moniak, or Both!

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      1. Moniak has not shown much in upper minors or cup of coffee to think he is a real major league hitter. I don’t see that changing unless you have blinders on. I hope I am wrong.

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  63. John K – l think David Hale has a guaranteed contract for about $600K or so. And Romus, as long as the Phillies have Kingery and Segura to back up SS, they could do without Mason/Williams/Chatham.

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    1. ciada….never know….Dombrowski could move Kingery since Segura appears untradeable at this point……..Maton I assume you mean

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  65. Thanks Ciada. I hope Hale can pitch like he did with Yankees in ‘20 but even beyond his poor numbers with us there didn’t seem much to be impressed by. If there are enough better arms this spring then the Phils should not let 850k stand in the way of dropping him.

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    1. I hope so – they are paying him. He’s been punished. He’s not 30 yet. Let’s see what he can do.

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      1. Agree……seems most all other baseball DV guys have re-entered their workplace, and continued their careers…German is suppose to be back in the Yankee camp, Chapman came back.
        He paid his price.
        Perhaps he will be showcased in the spring, who knows, just hope he comes back and is able to produce like he did in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

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  67. Again not unlike Arenado I was underwhelmed by the prospect return the Red Sox’s are getting for Benintendi.

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    1. Haseley at this point of their careers probably has more return -trade-value than Benintendi…age, contract and potential…..plus Benintendi has fallen off the cliff these last two years……he even loss speed if that is possible at 27 years old.
      Played a poor defensive LF .
      Bloom said the right thing …..”Last year I was optimistic about Andrew, and I still am,”

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      1. Would you have traded David Parkinson and Mickey Moniak for Andrew Benintendi?
        That is the equivalent of what the BoSox got back from the Royals and Mets.

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        1. well there are three PTBNL to come and Bloom seemed intrigued by the possible upside of Cordero (if able to stay healthy and get consistent playing time), which Moniak doesnt seem to offer.

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          1. Cordero carries a 35% K-rate, and is 4 years older than Moniak.
            Look … for me, the Royals made a shrewd deal. They bought low on Benintendi. If ever there was a year to look past a guy’s stats, it was the 2020 shortened, COVID season. A+ move for KC. They risked very little for a young (LHH) MLB OFer under two years of team control.

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            1. absolutely it makes a ton of sense from Royals perspective- i was just trying to say if Bloom got the Phils offer mentioned he probably stays with the deal he made.

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  68. Will Trout Eventually Asked To Be Traded?

    “The biggest thing is getting to the playoffs. You guys see it. I see it. It sucks being out of it. It’s time. We got to get to the playoffs,” Trout told reporters, including Maria Torres of the LA Timess, after the team was elimination from the postseason race last September. “I don’t like losing. I want to get to the playoffs. I think that every time we come into spring, our main goal is to get to the playoffs and bring a championship back to Anaheim. That’s just the mind-set. You come up short and you’re that close, it sucks.”………het turns 30 in August and chances are we are closer to the end of his reign as the best player in baseball than the beginning, and that should scare the heck out of the Angels. It should scare Trout too.

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    1. Well he shouldn’t. When players take these monster deals with or without opt outs they should hold themselves and their agents accountable.

      I suspect Arenado would have been afraid to opt out of his deal even though he would have been able to. Not sure the details of Mike’s contract but right now he should be the company man.

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    2. Additionally there is no reason to believe his backend legacy won’t be unlike Albert’s. Watch no one will care that he was once the best player in baseball. All they will talk about is his production and what he is being paid for that production.

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      1. DMAR…..all legit points.
        If the Angels fail to make the play-offs this season…he could ask to be traded, and the Angels may be willing.
        The Angels would have to take a hit on the ‘best player in the game’ in any return deal…..just because of his age (31 in 2022) and contract, even if they decide to pick up a percentage of the contract.

        Would you trade Nola, Bohm and and one of the CFers like Haseley/Moniak/Quinn/Muzziotti for Trout now?

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        1. Romus … Arte Moreno would never allow Perry Minasian to trade Trout, but if you’re Dave Dombrowski you’d probably do that deal.

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          1. … and the fact that Trout was born in Vineland (down the street from me) holds no influence on my decision for DD to do that deal. 🙂

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          2. Yep Hinkie……if they miss it (play-offs) this season again …Moreno may not have any choice…Trout may ask to be moved ,,,,and no owner wants a player who does not want to be on the team anymore.

            And you bring up an interesting point…Dave Dombrowski will not hesitate to pull the trigger on a major deal.

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        2. In all seriousness no I wouldn’t make that trade. We just effectively became the Angels with that deal…

          I love the kid and the fact that he is somewhat a philly hero is emotionally uplifting. Take out that emotion and what do you have.

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          1. Haha Hinkie and I disagree kind of. Sure DD probably does that deal but I wouldn’t…

            Subtract Bohm and Nola replace with Morales or Howard, Haseley or Moniak and add Marchan.

            But I do agree with Hinkie in that Moreno probably doesn’t allow it.

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            1. DMAR……Nola will command some large AAV after ’23….and with JTR, Harper Wheeler and a wishful Trout…Phillies will be playing with a King and His Court team out there.

              Dombrowski is getting itchy fingers by now…..not sure he has ever gone this long into a PoBO/GM positions without doing a major blockbuster.

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            2. Well that is the bed he made so now he/we must lie in it.

              While I was once a proponent of trading Nola you can’t now that you re-signed JT.

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          2. The Trout ship has sailed. We need to move on from the returning hometown hero narrative. He had little if anything to gain by waiting to sign with the Phillies, even if they were so inclined. I had my own dreams of him and Harper together in the lineup. It certainly doesn’t fit the current trend of owners shying away from buying a player’s brand and banking on the fan investment. The new model is all about value, bargains and young talent over marketing, overspending for players who’ve jumped the shark (Arrieta) and albatross contracts.

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  69. I think our future need is a CF, and always, more Pitching. I don’t think the Angels trade Trout, so who would be a more realistic target? I see Haseley, if he becomes an everyday player, settles in LF. We need a much better defensive player in CF. We know that there is some bif DD trade down the road, even if it is next off season.

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    1. Haseley played VG center 2 years ago had couple misplays in RF where he probably did not practice much. Give him a shot in center still think heady player that plays game the right way and can help a team near bottom of order

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      1. Agreed. Haseley’s defensive regression was maybe the biggest head scratcher/disappointment for me in 2020. However … like I’ve posted a few other times, if ever there was a year to overlook a guy’s performance, it is the shortened 2020 COVID season.
        I expect the young man to more resemble 2019 Adam Haseley (with the glove) than 2020 Adam Haseley. I hope he plays with more confidence.

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  70. .

    11. Sixto Sanchez
    44. Spencer Howard

    No other Phillies or ex-Phillies.

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    1. This state of prospect valuation is a product of the previous regime. With the new brass in place, we can expect some pleasant developments from within the organization. Abel has yet to toe a mound in competitive anger as a pro. Stott is poised to be solid major league player. I’m a believer in Luis Garcia and Johan Rojas, though none of these kids are perceived by the national media as top prospects.

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  71. agree, mark, and my question is how long you anticipate it taking to build the system back up? It has to be 3 years, at least. Last year was a wasted development year, but Stott and Abel, not necessarily in that order, should break out this season. Garcia and Rojas, who you also mentioned. Morales, Simmons, Erik Miller and Baylor are also players I feel have bright futures, but who may become a Star quality player is TBD.

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    1. Not saying the Philies farm will jump this dramatically this quickly (they’re not in a rebuild), but … yes, I also believe any of Abel, Stott, Morales, Marchan, Garcia, Rojas, and this summer’s 1-13 pick (if they continue to draft high upside) could make top 100 lists next winter.

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      1. I think its to remember therebwasbso little minor league this past year and a lot of prospects were lower in the system and didn’t ay. So graduating bohm we certainly weren’t moving up but could make a jump next year

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  72. That is huge jump for Mariners. Are you aware of how they have made that happen. Draft only or have they brought in some top prospects thru trades. I am not aware they have made big trades. Thanks. It would be nice if Phillies can simply improve farm somewhere towards the middle of the pack.

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    1. The Edwin Diaz deal brought them Jarred Kelenic (#3 on ESPN’s list). And Taylor Trammell (another top 100 guy) was acquired in the Austin Nola trade.

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  74. Bleacher Report posed a few possible trades, one of them involving us. Hader for Moniak, Marchan, and Medina. Phils would definitely do it for 3 years of Hader.

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      1. Speaking of Marchan … in this Fangraphs article ( https://blogs.fangraphs.com/keeping-up-with-the-nl-easts-prospects/ ), Eric Longenhagen gave him a similar value to Patrick Bailey. Bailey was drafted by the SFGs at 1-13 last summer and is ranked #100 on Kiley McDaniel’s list published on ESPN today.
        Marchan is going to get knocked for his lack of power (to date), but IMO most WS champs have won with plus defenders behind the plate who know how to handle pitching staffs. He’s got that. I think there’s some Carlos Ruiz in there. The difference is, Marchan will get/has gotten his MLB career started at a much earlier age.

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        1. Yeah Hinkie agree…Marchan also makes consistent contact with a very low K rate.

          I do think however Rodo Duran will be the one to come on….understand Josh Bonifay had said he came into instructs in the fall in the best shape of his life after recovering from the injury and he was impressed with his hitting

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          1. “the best shape of his life”?
            C’mon, Romus…you’re old enough to know that cliche is the professional athlete’s kiss of death.

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      2. Bite your tongue I love Marchan. IMO he’s a MLB ready catcher defensively and will only get better offensively. He’s got some learning to do sure and needs some seasoning but he’s got that “it” factor

        Very Yadier-Ish

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    2. Yes. Dombrowski would make that deal.

      I’ve previously posted this offer:
      Brewers get: one of Simon Muzziotti or Johan Rojas, + Francisco Morales, and Damon Jones
      Phillies get: (3 years of) Josh Hader

      Would you make my deal?

      Like

      1. If you can share, what did they turn down?
        Also … in theory … Hader becomes less valuable as time moves forward (more expensive & less team control).

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        1. Jim … I’m assuming the deal you heard of had to include one of Bohm/Howard/Stott. Morales would have been the Phillies 4th best prospect in July. I can’t believe Klentak would have offered Bohm or Howard. That leaves Stott.

          I’ve read the Brewers were shopping for OF prospects. That’s why I proposed one of Muzziotti or Rojas. Maybe the Phillies could have offered JoJo Romero instead of Damon Jones to sweeten the offer.

          Is the offer you heard better than Stott, Rojas, and Romero?

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          1. BTW … not saying I would do Stott, Rojas, and Romero. I would not. I’d rather spend the money on Trevor Rosenthal, and hold on to those prospects.

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        2. VV, AM, BF, MM, BS. Brewers had BF rated very high in our org, probably weighed heavy in his being protected from R5. Now, this is just a snapshot of the names being considered at one point on one day in August. I’m not sure if this was a 541, or a pick 4 or pick 3, a 442 … It’s just a snapshot of who was among those possibly being considered. But, even if it was a 541, when I heard this I thought you guys would only hesitate over BS, and still pull the trigger. I think most still would.

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          1. Jim … thanks for sharing that.
            LOL! When I saw AM, I first thought you were referring to Adam Morgan … then realized you meant Adonis Medina.
            If it took Stott, I’d probably take a pass. I think he’s been flying under the radar as a prospect (nationally). I saw enough of him at UNLV to understand that he is an advanced hitter. I hate to put the kiss of death on the kid … but … IMO Stott has a non-zero chance of having a Chase Utley or Bobby Grich type of career. Not telling you Bryson Stott will amass a career 60 WAR. Just saying it’s not impossible. He’s carries that type of bat. Maybe it’s better/safer to say Stott could become a poor man’s Utley or Grich.
            I probably couldn’t trade Stott after just 166 MiLB ABs. And while, Hader is a beast, you do have to have some concern with the potential for arm health issues because of the velocity and angle he throws with/from.
            Like I mentioned above, the wiser/safer move is probably for Middleton to spend a few more bucks in free agency on a guy like Trevor Rosenthal, and hang on to Stott.

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          2. Wow I would never spend that kind of prospect capital on a reliever unless maybe I came up short the season before in the NLCS or WS

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  76. Think Romus said Phillies had 12 blown save in 20. Seemed like more than that. Just think if Hader had save 9 of those 12 then Phillies win the division. Braves came within 1 win of WS.

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      1. That is why I believe if Phillies can get similar years from the regulars and improvement of BP toward the middle of the pack this team can compete for division. Joel Sherman stated on Hot Stove he still thinks Philles are lacking in BP. He was talking about Kintzler addition. Concerned that Phillies infield defense might negate his effectiveness. I would still like to see Rosenthal somehow if he could pitch like he did last year. I just have little faith in Hector.

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        1. Don53…that is a concern…the infield defense.
          Didi is not the same as the past…Rhys and Bohm are what they are…Segura plays a decent 2B…more like MLB average.
          Collectively they could be the worse in the majors going from first to third..
          Their shifts have to be better to compensate for their lack of defensive skills.

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          1. Agree Romus. One reason I really think the back end guy has to be someone who is capable of getting many outs himself. Not sure Bradley is in that category. Think he may be excellent for the 8th inning. Hader and Rosenthal fit that 9th category.

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  77. Sorry, Hinkie, I make the BR deal, but not yours. I keep Morales, and would be hard pressed to give up Jones. Would trade Muzziott, but not Rojas. I also don’t make a deal for a Hader until I see how the team plays. Review things at the deadline. If we are not a Contender for the Playoffs, why trade good prospects? All along, I have only wanted to spend $, not trade unless we are receiving someone to move the needle.

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    1. Yeah, matt. If I were the Phillies, I’d make that BR trade too. I’d rather hold on to the higher upside players. I just don’t believe the Brewers would do that deal.

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  78. Hader is ranked 95 in top 100 now. Sean Casey just said that is way to low. Gosh I think Hader is a guy who could move the needle for Phillies Verducci just said he thinks there will be an expanded playoffs this year.

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  80. I would love to see Moniak have a great spring training and be the Phillies center fielder on opening day (as most of us would). The kid (still only 22) has been through a lot and we have all been with him right from the beginning. When he and Haseley played together in Reading, it was always MM in CF because, I assume, he is the better defender. If he has a decent ST, I believe he will make the team and Quinn will be sent out. If they keep Moniak at LHV for the season, then I hope Herrera is resurrected.

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    1. If Moniak were to fulfill the profile he’d been given at the 2016 draft, man! We’d be doing cartwheels and back flips. Well above average centerfielder with above average speed, gap power with 10-12 HR pop, a top of the order bat. Slash say, .290/.335/.465, steal 20 bases, good character…Ashburn minus the blazing speed and add the pop….alright, alright…enough of that dream sequence.

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      1. Uh, I don’t think I’d be doing cartwheels and back flips – you’ve just pretty much described Adam Haseley.

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  81. That would be tremendous, mark! Compare your numbers with last year’s last place WAR production for our CF combo. .248/.311/.388, and a negative fielding number. There is a lot of room in the middle. The Secretary of Defense played here for quite a while, so getting excellent CF defense is my #1 requirement for a CF.

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  82. Anyone watch that Adelaide Giants game last night? I watched a little, they were talking up Randolph, which was surprising, they said despite his numbers he’s actually played well. Simmons looked good at the plate, very interested to see what he turns into.

    Why did they trade Curtis Mead, he’s looked good in the few games i’ve seen.

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    1. Will adding Miller put Chatham on the outs? Or does his major league deal make Joyce’s minors deal more precarious?

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  84. Color me optimistic but I believe with a minor league season the Phillies farm gets a huge boost in prospect rankings. A hunch. No proof lol just optimistic.

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    1. Phillies84 i have some land in florida cheap, you interested? Anyone who is that optimistic can turn swamp and into gold

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  85. I’m starting to think the Phillies strategy of bringing in what seems like a school bus load of camp arms for ST wasn’t a Klentak strategy but something higher up? Possibly the guy who signs the checks.. At the conclusion of ST the Phillies will offer to reassign older pitchers who had so-so ST results to LHV or release them and the players will have a decision to make to accept the MiLB assignment or more than likely most will decline and look for major league jobs somewhere else… And the ST dance ritual will be done.. Which I personally think is a horrendous waste considering we have very high ceiling pitchers in Abel and Miller who would blossom under the ST tutelage of the major league staff and start to learn what it takes to be in the MLB. So which brings the Phillies more bang for that signing bonus buck, having Abel & Miller in ST camp or the 28 year old hanger on’s that have no chance but are figuratively just camp BP arms?

    Many will likely recognize this is a pet peeve I have with the Phillies..

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    1. Hawk….Abel will be at the Complex….in the past they have got non-40 guys in spring training games…..this year will probably be different due to COVID ..but to your point, guys like Abel, Martin, Miller et al do ‘rub shoulders’ with MLB players in the past and try to glean useful baseball tips from them.

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  87. Many think the NL East will be the most difficult. Romus, I know Bradley has closed and done ok. If no one else is added I hope he is able to do so again. I did like Kintzler when I saw him but infield defense will need to help there. I do have a ?. You mentioned that Bradley had 24 saves in last 40 appearances. Are those save opportunities or total appearances? It would be my guess or at least it seemed that Neris saved about half of the save opportunities he was presented. Just not good enough. Thinking maybe a 7th inning role might be the best fit for him. FB is too straight, and split is never a strike. Hitters have wised up to that. Kintzler in 8th and then Bradley. That might work. I do not think BP is the answer for Vinny.

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      1. Thanks Romus. I think anything close to that would be great. Phillies just have to figure a way to win the games they should win. Another thing I was thinking other day besides Bohm I would not think any of our regulars had great years at the plate last year. Ok but not great and still had so many leads. I am hoping glass is half full. I do think DD will find a way for Phillies to compete. I was thrilled with the hire.

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  88. Think Miller would provide a good LH bat. Not sure where they would play him in a game. Think someone said he had 5 errors in like 20+ chances at 3rd. Oops. It is nice though here in Indiana where it is like zero that the guys will be ramping it up in a few days. Most are maybe there already.

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  89. Happy with signing Bamboo Brad. He can hit, and makes the bench stronger, which we will need. I have to think we are done for now. CF is up in the air, but there are 3 candidates, not counting Herrera, who I have zero feel for what the team will do. The BP pecking order has to be determined, but, at least, JoeG. has much better options. Bradley and Kintzler can close, and there is still Neris, for those few times when he finds his groove. Counting in him all the time, or even most of the time, is when you ask for trouble. I am finally looking forward to see ST develop, and the season start. I am hoping for fans in CBP, at least, in some good %, around the 4th of July.

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  90. Don 53 – I passed on that info of 5 errors in 19 chances at third base. It’s amazing (to me) how the Cardinals gave Miller $2M last year (he got $1M the year before) but the Phillies will pay him at least $3M this year. If a team is going to pay someone to basically by a PH, try to get one with a little versatility to play the field.

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    1. was thinking Holt might be an alternative- not as good a hitter but can field various positions and good team guy- he got minor league deal from Texas now with 1.75 mil if he makes it.

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    2. Totally agree ciada. It amazes me what the fringe players are able to receive. No wonder they stay as long as they can. Nothing like that a regular job. Miller did hit well couple years ago but if no DH and no position that is way beyond a lot for a PH.

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  91. matt13…with all due respect my friend, DD is NEVER done. Remember the days of Gillick, there was no such thing as a trading deadline, waiver deadline, any deadline, he was constantly trying to build along the edges. DD is the same way and he will mostly like add one more bullpen arm before too long, though I am quite sure its not going to be Rosenthal, a guy many of us wanted and here is why I am sure he is not coming.

    He is represented by Boras, who also happens to represent Harper, arguably his biggest client. I don’t think Boras necessarily gives away trade secrets to Harper but would likely share with him info as to a players chances of possibly joining the Phillies. The fact that Harper pushed so hard for Kintzler to come on board tells me that he knew Rosenthal was not coming since I believe Kintzler has been promised an opportunity to close, a job he did well last year. DD made it clear at his first press conference that he likes having a closer, as does Girardi, so the days of Kapler’s “I feel it in my bones that today Player X is going to close but probably Player Y tomorrow” are over.

    But as long as DD is the “buck stops with me” guy we should always be checking the transaction section, he simply never stops tinkering. And we all know that at some point, BOOM, he makes the big deal. He always has, he always will.

    And the Phils will likely be all the better for it. In less than 3 months he has almost completely transformed this franchise and its roster. I much prefer the days of AD to BD [after Dombrowski to before Dombrowski.] By my count he has already made 26 moves in about 3 months. Amazing, and all from a team that was talking about A] not re-signing JT or DIDi and B] dealing Wheeler for pennies on the dollar!

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  92. Very good points CD. Those additions around the edges are the ones that make such a huge difference. Likewise if one fails like Klentack did last year with BP guys you have no chance. It does still amaze me that all of the additions were AWFUL. I would watch nightly and Joe had no choice to keep bringing them in and keep seeing leads evaporate. Usually only a few pitches were required for the lead to disappear. Before DD I was not thinking this season had much hope for success. It is still going to be hard and guys need to stay healthy and some luck needs to go Phillies way. But it is hopeful. I have never been able to get out of my head the 1st game of Kapler when he took Nola out in 6th inning ahead by 5 or so runs having thrown like 58 pitches. Then Phils lose. That game made his entire tenure.

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  93. I love the signing of Brad Miller. I know Hoskins is projected to be close to 100% by opening day but this gives the team a solid bat in the event he has a set back or isn’t fully recovered for Opening Day.

    I’m thinking Dohy is the potential move (unless they wait 5 days to announce which is possible) or a trade to consolidate 40 man assets to create space for Kintzler and Joyce

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  94. Miller played a little first base for the Blue Jays in 2016 and 2018 but he is mostly adept at playing the keystone. The Phillies had him for most of a season so they know his qualities. If he’s the guy they go with to complete this team, I’m fine with it (as if anyone really cares). I’m just hoping this team is competitive and doesn’t cause me to shudder from the 7th inning on while I am following the game on my computer.

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  95. Too funny ciada. “Shudder from 7th inning on”. Usually I miss most of the Summer games because of our business. But last year with Covid almost all of our events were cancelled. So I watched nightly and guess I too shuddered from the 7th inning on. One also shuddered from the 5th inning on of all the DH games. I wonder what Joe was really thinking each time he walked to the mound. I am so hoping that team can find a few guys who can get the last 9 outs. Keep our fingers crossed.

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  97. Any guess what the Phillies plans are for Romero, Rosso, Suarez, and Medina? They have been starters in minors but this last year used in relief. It’ll be interesting story to follow in ST.

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  98. First of all, I’m a big Brad Miler fan. I was bummed out when they let him leave for St. Louis last year.

    Second, this dude isn’t much of a fielder but he can flat-out hit. He had 12 homers in 2019 in 112 ABs – that’s not easy to do! And he kept hitting in St. Louis. He’s had a 126 and 120 OPS+ in 2019 and 2020. Really good teams always have a guy in the wings like this who are legitimate threats at the plate.

    More than anything, the Miller signing signals to me that the Phillies think there’s a legitimate chance that the NL ultimately has a DH in 2021 as he would be most valuable getting the majority of his PAs in that role.

    He was a little pricey for what he does (and there were some available pitchers I’d rather have than him), but I like this a lot.

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    1. What this also tells me is that I think the Phillies are really going for it this year. Expect another legit starting or relieving pitcher signing – someone like Paxton or Melancon. I really think guys like them are in play and one more arm could be the difference between the Phillies competing and not competing for a playoff spot.

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      1. As CD above says – I think DD is still working the wires and I don’t doubt he will continue to work on one each of the many starters and relievers still out there. It will necessitate a trade to lower payroll but it is coming.

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        1. Signing a 6th SP would be huge for the team IMO. Miller helps in multi ways, not just with bench bat but also can fill in at 1B if Hoskins has a delay to start of the year.

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        2. I still believe …or have the feeling….that Scoot Kingery will be moved, and also perhaps Vinny…they are both on the Phillies 40 so any team taking them will have to have or make room for them, plus pick up their salaries…which can be a bit of an issue for a small market team..
          The Phillies may not get any team’s top five/seven prospect, but may get a few of the 8-12 range guys.

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      2. Oh yes, while I’m at it, one other thing.

        Middleton obviously wasn’t being fully honest last year when he said the Phillies “lost” $100 million last year – “lost” as in expenses exceeding revenues. No way the Phillies do a 162 game season with no fans for the foreseeable future this year if they “lost” that much money without fans in the stands last year. Maybe their revenues were down $100 million, but they weren’t $100 million in the red. No way.

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      1. rocco……70% of American adults are overweight….30% are obese…….this was all factored into that final 2200 number…..they will have a special place for you on the berm, so bring one of your large beach blankets.

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  101. Romus..while I agree with you that the Phils are looking to move a player or two, I disagree that its Kingery they are trying to move, I think its Segura. For one thing, moving Kingery now would be trading him at his lowest value, not something that DD seems inclined to do. For another, I found it interesting that Girardi went out of his way to suggest that Segura is his second baseman, almost reminding me of Shakespeare’s famous line about, “methinks you protesth too much.”

    It just seemed strange to me, almost as if there is a team out there that the Phillies know is interested in dealing for Segura and the Phils are reminding said team that if they try and shortchange the Phils they are more than happy to keep and play him. I could be totally off base but Segura has NEVER seemed to fit the Fightin’s, whereas they have been touting Kingery almost since he signed as the second baseman of the future and yet NEVER given him a clear shot at taking the position, despite Kingery’s quiet but clear desire to be given a chance to play one position and grow there.

    I also think that the Phils AD [after Dombrowski] are re-opening this “Herrera will never play for us again” mantra, especially given that every player BUT Herrera who was punished for the same infraction is back and playing with almost no negative feedback. I use Urias as Exhibit A since I live in SoCal, Dodger fans love him and have never once second guessed the Dodgers for bringing the lefty back in the fold. I will never condone what Herrera did but if his girlfriend has forgiven him [she is still with him] and he has more than served his time and seemingly rehabilitated his life, I suspect DD thinks he is an asset and should be given the chance to win the CF spot.

    This would allow Haseley to play some LF, give Quinn a chance to move around, allow Kingery to play 2nd base, and if Segura is moved, keep the Phils a comfortable ways from the luxury tax.

    DD is the master of multi-tasking and I think he knows he can move a few players and their salaries to keep the team under the $210 luxury task and still bring in another reliever or starter [still think Porcello is a possibility.] I just do not think he is done.

    Remember, DD is not married to any of the decisions made by the old regime [BD] and in fact, probably took the job with the assurance that he would not have to be! [AD!]

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    1. CD….many valid and fair points.

      Dombrowski moving Segura, if it can be done with his salary/age, would elevate the GM and his creativity, even more in my book.

      Now I do think Freidman is looking for the Kiki replacement in LA…..and my thought was that Kingery fits that bill. His out-lying years of the contract though would require some of Freidman’s ability to message those cost to fit it within his team’s salary structure for a utility guy.

      As to Herrera ……agree with you, he deserves a second chance…he paid his dues to baseball society. I really do not think he would contribute however, unless he is at his 2015/2017 performance level.
      I say, give him the opportunity…..if he does well in the spring maybe he can be moved

      Now the question….is Dombrowski indebted and in deference to the MacPhail/Klentak regime ….no….but they are still hanging around the office.
      If you have ever been in that sitution…it can be at times awkward.
      My understanding….Dombrowski had no qualms and may have relished the idea that Klentak remain on board thru the transitioning…if so, he may be reluctant to pull the triggers on personnel moves, that would look demeaning to Matt Klentak or Andy Macphail as long as both are still in the building….who knows.

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      1. Not a chance Kingery gets traded now. No chance Segura gets traded either. The only one who could get traded is Vinnie but that would be in ST and only IF Howard or Nova shows something to beat him out.

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        1. In a perfect world, Howard would show that he is a superior option to Vinnie V. But what gives me great concern is that two in a row Howard had to be shut down with shoulder issues, and for a power pitcher, that is never a good sign.

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      2. That may be the case…..but if Kingery does not come around this season…then you are stuck for$4M this season and possibly $14M over the following two….and get no return at all.

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    3. On point with each point, CD. I have thought Kingery might be moved but at the end of the day it doesn’t make sense to sell low. Segura (plus some, maybe half(?) of his salary) in a package to a team like Toronto, perhaps?

      As for Odubel, I was as down on him as anyone. But some boys can grow up, especially when they have to to make a living. I’d agree that 2021 – his contract year – is a good time to find out. Like Sparky Anderson once said, “Give me 25 guys on the final year of their contract and I’ll win you a title.”…or something like that. Herrera has talent. If he’s grown some discipline, both personally and professionally, he’s a valuable asset.

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  102. Can a segura hater please explain to me who the Phillies 2nd baseman is. The core of this team is in their prime. We r going to trade an above avg defensive and offensive 2nd baseman now. Get real. Who is second baseman to compete now?

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    1. not to mention if you have a lead late you might want to move Segura to third and have kingery at second for defense while pulling bohm or hoskins-

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      1. The 7 infielders currently on the 40.
        Alec Bohm
        C.J. Chatham
        Didi Gregorius
        Rhys Hoskins
        Scott Kingery
        Nick Maton
        Jean Segura
        ………for defensive purpose Maton and Chatham can do what Kingery does now.

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    2. PAtso…agree…the idea of trading Segura would further limit the team’s defense and offense …..even Joe said he wants him there at 2B.
      He may have been the only infielder with a non-negative SDI/DRS.

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  103. Having watched most of the games last year and I have mentioned this before I believe Segura does a very good job at 2nd. Right now he is by far the best defensive infielder. I see now way he is moved at this time. Phillies are still going to have to try to outscore teams and having limited infield defense makes that difficult. Segura going to 3rd late might play but then you would be taking one the better bats out. Then we get back to if the BP can hold a lead.

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    1. $6.5M-$7M for one year at this point of his career, and in this market climate, is a gross overpay. Boras must have blown smoke in someone’s face in the Cubs FO.

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      1. Or maybe someone might coach him up better than the Phillies did.

        One of the things that always puzzled me about Arrieta’s entirely unforgettable performance as a Phillies starter is that his stuff was pretty decent. Not lights out, but actually quite good. But it always seemed like he was just slightly off, just a step away from being a very good pitcher. Perhaps, like other Phillies’ pitchers, he suffered from some very bad coaching or he just could never compensate for losing 2-3 MPH off his fastball. I don’t know what exactly it was, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he rebounded somewhat this year, although I am glad he moved on.

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        1. I’m always puzzled at how quickly so many Phillies “fans” turn on their own. A stat line is usually their only source of data. Arrieta is one tough SOB. He pitched most of 2018 with an oblique strain. He pitched a lot of 2019 with a bone chip floating in his elbow until they finally shut him down in August. “Fans” either discard or use the 2020 season as an axe, whichever best supports their pre-determined point of view. I wrote three dissenting opinions during the 2017 ofseason, arguing against signing Arrieta to a long-term contract because all data pointed to his being on the downside of his career. But, we got him on a shorter 3-year contract at a time when his intangibles could help mentor a young staff.

          I find myself wondering if Arrieta at such a deep discount wouldn’t have been a better option as a number four. (None of this is directed at you, Catch. Just a convenient place to remind people of how tough Arrieta is, and that what we get isn’t always defined in a stat line.)

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          1. Jim, I think what a lot of fans look at with Arrieta was that he was trending down in his last year and half with the Cubs. And being that they were still a pretty talented team with a potential World Series run, they still didn’t think he was worth resigning at the price he was asking. And then the Phillies swooped in and gave a contract that averaged $25mil/ year for a pitcher that wasn’t even close to the CY Young winner of a few years before. So a pitcher north of 30, trending downwards, and then is hurt all three years he was here. It wasn’t his fault that he was injured. But it just made that contract look stupid, even by John Middleton standards.

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            1. No, a lot of fans weren’t aware of Arrieta’s downward trend until I harped on it here. He was looking for a 6-year contract at the time. When he signed a 3-year deal, I grudgingly agreed with others that it might be a good move by the organization. There was no wailing and gnashing of teeth when they acquired him. He pitched to a better WAR in 2018 than in 2017. You can’t rewrite history and call it a stupid contract now.

              ““For the Phillies, this was as close to a no-brainer as $25 million per season gets,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes. Murphy argues that the Phillies were simply in such dire need for starting pitching that a quality arm like Arrieta was too good to pass up, even at a significant price for a still-rebuilding team. Though Arrieta’s performance dipped in 2017, Murphy notes that even Arrieta’s down year still more or less equaled Aaron Nola’s numbers, so “in essence, the Phillies will have added another Nola even if Arrieta’s 2017 is his new normal.” Even if Arrieta declines further, the three-year length of the deal means that he won’t be much of a long-term burden on the Phils’ spending abilities.”

              Cubs fans were annoyed that he signed for less than an offer from the Cubs/Epstein during the season.

              For the record, Keith Law questioned the deal. Shocker.

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    1. Romus I read that and can’t see how they ranked them. Padres, Mets, Blue Jays all won. White Sox and Cardinals did OK. But Dodgers and Yankees are only listed here because of one big strike that I really don’t think is enough to even make the top 10. The Nats, Braves, Phils, and Twins all did very well with both top players added (or retained) and with depth added. The true answer will be seen in October.

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      1. Yeah Bob…..just one writer’s opinion.
        Just like prospect rankings…many have the same in their top 50…..but a lot of time they are not in the same ranked sequence.

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  106. It’s a tough division, for sure, Romus, but I am cautiously optimistic that our offense will be good, and that Moore and Anderson will help us in the SR, and the BP has to, just has to, be much better. And, if we are close, then I also am optimistic we will see DD make a significant deal to help at some point during the season. At least, I am excited for the season to start, and I wasn’t prior to the arrival of Dombrowski.

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  107. Hinkie……was wondering why Keone Kela formerly of the Pirates, and young for a reliever with good metrics, and 97/98 velo…..has not been snatched up yet.

    I think teams are wary of his forearm issue……he took himself off the mound after one batter in mid-August and did not come around the rest of the year….so there seems to be some reluctance on the part of some GMs to extend a contract if the forearm UCL/elbow is a precursor for a TJ ..

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    1. Romus … I’ve thought Kela could be a lower cost (because of injury) closer option for the Phillies for a while now. I don’t know the condition of his forearm, but I would think (based on his upside) he’d be worth taking a flier on.

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      1. In the pre-Covid financial days…he would be one to give a two year deal to…..if he blows out his elbow in the first year, you will still have him for the back portion of the second year. …if he never blows it out, then great.

        But now…..everything has changed in the baseball finance arena.
        I’d offer him a minor league contract …and not have to worry about finding a spot on the 40 yet.
        He however may be holding out for a major league contract and maybe even multiple years….since I would think by now some team would have already signed him at a minor league contract.

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  109. One thing to remember is games in April count just as much as those in September. I just looked at the April schedule. Looks pretty balanced. At least home and away. I always go back to the pop up Segura misplayed with Rhys. One game in 1st week but for that misplay Phillies sneak in to playoffs.

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  110. Romus, Seattle did it with Ken Giles, signing him to a 2 year contract, knowing he will miss 2021. They basically signed him up for the 2022 season. Not that I think we should have done that. I think with the Brad Miller signing we are just a few Million away from the CBT, and they will want some room for in season moves. But, it’s a good deal for a team like Seattle.

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    1. matt…have to assume they …Seattle…are pretty much far from reaching the limit of the CBT and decided to take the chance that Giles will work out well in 2022…and could become a valuable trade chip in July 20222 if they are not in contention themselves..
      Mariners:
      2021 Tax Threshold….$210M
      40-Man Tax Payroll:…….$65M

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  111. I am happy the Phils signed DiDi for his baseball skills and his perceived leadership skills.The player that I feel will benefit the most on the team from this signing will be Jean Segura. May be wrong, but I sensed Jean had a growing respect for DiDi last year and will be mentored and encouraged to be the best he can be this year. Even veterans need positive role models and support to bring out the very best…some more than others.

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  112. Moffo – Bruuuuuuce! Bruuuuuuce! I think you have the wrong Bruce. You must be thinking of that guy from South Jersey. You know, the singer. I can’t remember his last night.

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  113. news is that Justin Turner is staying with the Dodgers on a 2 yr 34 Million contract extension. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ lists the 2021 salary for the Dodgers as around 51 million more than the #3 payroll Phillies, AND that does not appear to include Turner’s new 17 million, though it does include over 30 million for Bauer, David Price and Kershaw. What would you spend it on if you had just 25 million of the $51 million excess for the Dodgers (not counting Turner) with the Phillies?.

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  116. Seattle signs Paxton 8.5 Million, with chance to make $2M more. If we had another $25M to spend? Rosenthal, for sure, JBJ, Jr,Porcello

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    1. matt13…I ask you this question.
      Would you trade Vinny and Scott Kingery, and their salaries, in exchange for signing Rick Porcello or JBJr or Rosenthal?

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  117. Excellent question, Romus. Naturally, I prefer to just spend the money, with the assumption that this is a hypothetical issue of what I would do with $25M. I would trade VV for JBJ or Rosenthal. My initial thought was, no, I still have hope for Kingery, and believe there is that good player still in there. The more I think about it, though, i would trade Kingery and Vinny for Rosenthal and JBJ. I don’t know if you let me get both! I also assume both Rosenthal and Bradley get multi year deals, so that is part of my decision.

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  118. Good question Romus. Good points Matt13. I would also pass on Porcello in this scenario.
    I keep thinking what happened to the Vinny who had those 16Ks in the game against Padres few years back. He had that “it” factor back then. Recent years most of the time it just seems he is out there on the mound. In regards to Kingery maybe the long term contract put added pressure on him. He just has not been that effective offensively and/or defensively last couple years. Way too much swing and miss for a guy who should be a contact hitter using all fields. I always wonder what he is thinking walking back to the dugout after striking out looking at the video screen. He is almost always late on the pitch or swings at a pitch out of the zone. I realize he did have major setback with Covid but go back the previous 2 years. I also thought his defense at 2nd base left a lot to be desired.

    Rosenthal is a HUGE risk. Last year very good. Year before he could not throw strikes. I may be totally off base but I see only a 1 year deal for him. Regarding JBJ a multi is probably awarded. I do not think it will be 4 years like he has been seeking. But I see a 2 year deal likely. I do think he is likely an upgrade on Kingery with some less versatility. More than likely things stay as they are at this time for the immediate future. I do agree with those who think DD is going to be constantly looking to improve the team as best he can. There will be misses but hopefully more hits that benefit the team. Plus the Phillies are due for some good luck.

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    1. matt/Don……Dave D. has yet to do his trading….and I think at the margins are players, to name two, like Vinny and Kingery.
      Moving either to save on salary has a trade off—–both are proven MLB players, but other teams in having to take on their salaries will probably want the Phillies to take on one or two of their margin players and their salaries… OR…expect the Phillies to accept tier two prospects….the 10-20 range in their farm system.
      Either way is a risk…..and Dombrowski has proven in the past…he will take the risk
      I like what Bruce Arians said in the Super Bowl….” no risk it- no biscuit”

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  119. If Herrera is invited to Spring Training, I assume that he would remain on the Lehigh Valley roster during ST. Then if he makes the team out of ST, he would have to be put on the 26 and 40 man rosters. Is that how it would work?

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    1. He still has to receive an invitation. Decision makers are split/torn on the decision. Middleton may have to break the deadlock. It seems to me that for this to be an issue, the guys making player decisions would have to be leaning toward an invitation, and someone who was against an invitation before (like maybe MacPhail) is still against it. Enter the boss. All spec on my part.

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  120. Think that is correct on Herrera if invited. Kind of like the Minor league invite contracts. Totally agree Romus regarding risks. Every move that is made or not made involve risks. I had a person tell me years ago that “great rewards involve great risks”. That seems to be fairly accurate in many cases. I hope Vinny and Kingery have great years in 21. Both seem like very good people. You always wish that for those. Hopefully it can be with the Phillies but if not somewhere.

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  121. A little tidbit on Didi:
    “….no matter where Gregorius has played, he has been the anti-LeMahieu in the sense that his power is entirely pull-dependent. Since 2015, when Statcast debuted, Gregorius has launched 107 home runs. Of those, 98 (91.6%) have been pulled, the highest rate in MLB among 82 hitters with at least 100 big flies. All 107 have been either pulled or hit to the middle third of the field. Gregorius is the only player in that span to hit at least 85 homers without having a single opposite shot.”

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    1. I saw that Romus. I heard it from announcers last season but those spray charts are ridiculous way of looking at things. Didi is definitely the guy they had in mind when the shifts started taking place. I think I remember he hit one deep fly to left last season in a game that I was watching. But wow that is the definition of a pull hitter.

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  122. Here is a question for you guys who are much more in tune. I just looked at Phillies present 40 man roster. 6 OF, 7 IF, 3 C, 24 P. is this a high number on the pitcher side? Or is it fairly normal. I do not think I have ever looked at the 40 man before. I did not break down starting or relief. Sure some can and do fall both ways. Just wondering. Thanks.

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    1. Don….about right…mostly depends on veteran presence in each category.
      Most teams will have either 2 or 3 catchers, I do not remember ever seeing a team with 4,
      ….6 or 7 infielders,
      and 5 or 6 OFers..the rest are made up of pitchers.

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  123. Thanks Romus. I had never looked before. Back to Didi a second. I attended South Alabama for a time in the early 70s. Coach Eddie Stanky was there. He always video taped our practices. He would bring up before practices that I had the quickest wrists. Didi has really quick wrists as well. Thinking back to my playing days not sure I ever hit any home runs to opposite field. But I do think Didi’s wrists are a factor in his location of balls hit.

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    1. Don53….yeah, he does get thru the zone pretty fast….and explosive too.
      Hah…Eddie Stanky….was born in Philly, grew up in Kensington, when it was a good neighborhood, and attended Northeast High

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  124. I did not know Coach was born in Philly. I should have told him I was a Phillies fan. I told people for years I was the only Phillies fan in Indiana. One other thing I noticed last Summer was Didi does not strike out much. I did not either. We are talking total different levels but I was fortunate to play against some very good players. I tore my rotator cuff pitching in our state Legion tourney just before going to Mobile. I never had surgery. Back then surgery kinda ended things. So just came back to Indiana to finish school. Three things always stood out though about my time there. People of Mobile were so nice. Paper mills smelled so awful. Assistant coach reminded me of Sgt. Carter on Gomer Pyle. He was so hard on us kids from the North. But it was great time.

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    1. Yeah Don…I read where Eddie married a gal from Alabama….one of his managers’ daughter…so he ended up staying in Alabama..
      Yeah agree…people down there are really nice…spent a little time down there in Montgomery area when in the Air Force.

      And you are spot on ..Didi has a very low K rate for a power guy….though he likes to swing, has a low BB rate

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      1. I still have a folder with his stamped return address from high school days. I was there in the Fall of 71. After hurting my shoulder I just was unable to play everyday and throw hard like we did. I missed by a few years of the DH coming into play. Think mid 70s. But he was great guy. I played baseball, basketball and football. But baseball was my love. I am still glad I went there. BTW Stan Butkus a nephew of Dick was there when I was there. Think he made AAA for awhile.

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          1. Stan was big broad shouldered like Dick. Really nice.
            Not sure I ever batted against Stan. Coach always had me hit in practice against Brad Hoffman and Buddy Choate. Both lefties. Brad was from East coast. Reminded me of Jon Matlack. Big, slow delivery and then pitch was on you. Super smooth. Buddy was from the South. He was free spirit. Threw really hard. It might be over the plate. It might be 2 feet behind you. It might be right at your ribs. One did not dig in. I have always wondered if the reliever who has been in the big leagues named Choate is somehow related. Believe he was left handed as well and maybe pitched some for Marlins. Forget his first name. There were a bunch of really good guys there.

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            2. Romus, you amaze me that you have all this links. Yes, Randy Choate. Kind of an unusual last name. I always wondered if that was Buddy’s kid or some relation. I know Stan Butkus made it to Louisville AAA. At the time I believe they were in the Cardinals system. Hoffman was really good. Never heard what happened with him. Also a really good outfielder. I know several got drafted but I came back to Indiana. Awesome you saw Matlack. I saw Gullett in a tourney in Kentucky. Mentioned earlier that I played against Tommy Underwood growing up. He grew up about 45 minutes from me. Pat who also made it was a couple years younger. One of the best guys I played against here in Indiana was the Dad of Bryan Bullington who was the overall number 1 pick by the Pirates.

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  125. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1378015/7841389
    Episode 18 new podcast for the 5 major teams in Philadelphia. Can you name them? Phillies near the end, little past the 50 minute mark. It’s a week worth of info so it sometimes takes a week to complete the listen. My son is from NC but he takes my heritage from South Philly.

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    1. Denny…your boy does a good job on his podcast covering the Philly Phive……though apparently he does not phavor Bryce as much as many Philly fans do.

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      1. Thank you Romus; here is his comment:

        “Thanks I appreciate Romus’ support, I’m glad he liked it and Harper’s the only player on any Philadelphia team that I don’t like so I hope y’all can look past it and keep listening.”

        From me: BTW-The rest of the family adores Harper. We’re going to have him tested, LOL.

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        1. LOL…..maybe it stems from Harper’s days as a Nat……I did not care too much for him there his first few years.

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          1. Probably. I hated Lenny Dykstra and Pete Rose before they became Phillies then changed my mine and now back again.

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