Open Discussion: Week of September 28th

Weekly Discussion

The Phillies missed the playoffs when they could only win one of their seven games this past week, and one of the last eight.  Wait til next year!

Sorry for the late posting.  We’re in the process of painting and packing before moving later this week.  I’m worn out and the weekend sports were kind of a downer.  And, we get to watch 13 more weeks of the Eagles.  Yippee.

I’m not really looking forward to the relentless posting and reposting of the same opinions this week.  I had hoped that if Meddleton was really going to make changes that he would do it quickly like the Angels did.  The longer it takes, the more redundant the comments section seems to me.

Well, have at it.

Oh, Instructs starts next Sunday.  Around fifty kids, no spectators.  But, they can’t keep me off city property and our governor just declared the state open for business. I’ll find a way to report on who’s in attendance at the very least.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • August 31, 2020 – Trade Deadline
  • September 15, 2020 – Deadline for players to be added to Major League roster for postseason eligibility
  • September 28-October 1, 2020 – Minor League Baseball Innovators Summit, Winston-Salem, NC
  • September 30, 2020 – Expiration of the Professional Baseball Agreement between MLB and MiLB
  • October 15, 2020, 5:00 PM EDT – Close of the 2019 international signing period
  • October TBA – Trading resumes, day after the World Series ends
  • October – November TBA, five days after the conclusion of the World Series – Deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents
  • November TBA, fifteen days after the conclusion of the World Series – Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers
  • November TBA – GM Meetings (Nov. 11-14, Scottsdale, AZ in 2019)
  • November TBA – Owners meetings (Nov. 19-21, Arlington, TX in 2019)
  • November 20, 2020 – Rosters set for Rule 5 Draft
  • November TBA – MLBPA executive board meeting (Nov. 26-29 in Irving, TX in 2018)
  • December 2, 2019 – Last day for teams to offer 2021 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters
  • December 6-10, 2020 – Winter Meetings in Dallas, Texas, at the Omni Dallas Hotel and Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center Dallas, held in conjunction with the Baseball Trade Show and PBEO Job Fair.
  • December 10, 2020 – Rule 5 Draft
  • January TBA – Rookie Career Development Program
  • January 15, 2021, 9:00 AM EST – Start of the 2020 international signing period

The rosters and lists are up to date as of September 6th … 337 players in the org

Transactions (newest transactions are in bold print)

9/24/2020 – Phillies recalled LHP Ranger Suarez from Alternate Training Site
9/24/2020 – Phillies optioned CF Mickey Moniak to Alternate Training Site
9/24/2020 – Phillies activated RHP Spencer Howard from the 10-day IL
9/24/2020 – Phillies optioned RHP Ramon Rosso to Alternate Training Site
9/23/2020 – Phillies optioned LHP Ranger Suarez to Alternate Training Site
9/22/2020 – Phillies recalled Ranger Suarez from Alternate Training Site
9/21/2020 – Phillies recalled CF Mickey Moniak from Alternate Training Site
9/21/2020 – Phillies recalled RHP Ramon Rosso from Alternate Training Site
9/21/2020 – Phillies placed RHP Heath Hembree on the 10-day IL, right elbow strain
9/21/2020 – Phillies optioned RHP Adonis Medina to Alternate Training Site
9/20/2020 – Phillies receive RHP Joel Cesar as PTBNL in August 26th trade with Pirates
9/20/2020 – Phillies optioned CF Mickey Moniak to Alternate Training Site
9/20/2020 – Phillies recalled RHP Adonis Medina from Alternate Training Site
9/19/2020 – Phillies optioned RHP Ramon Rosso to Alternate Training Site
9/18/2020 – Phillies recalled RHP Ramon Rosso from Alternate Training Site
9/18/2020 – Phillies optioned LHP Garrett Cleavinger to Alternate Training Site
9/18/2020 – Phillies activated RF Jay Bruce from the 10-day IL
9/18/2020 – Phillies traded RHP Brandon Ramey, RHP Israel Puello, and RHP Juan Geraldo to Brewers
9/18/2020 – DSL White released C Jonathan Rodriguez
9/18/2020 – DSL Red released RHP Emiliano Brazon
9/18/2020 – DSL White released RHP Jose Guaramaco
9/18/2020 – DSL White released RHP Aldemar Rivas
9/18/2020 – DSL Red released RHP Carlos Valero
9/18/2020 – DSL Red released RHP Jeison Blanco
9/18/2020 – DSL Red released C Victor Cairo
9/18/2020 – DSL Red released LHP Yosmel Naranjo
9/17/2020 – Phillies sent Ronald Torreyes outright to Alternate Training Site
9/16/2020 – Phillies recalled RHP Connor Brogdon from Alternate Training Site
9/16/2020 – Phillies placed RHP Jake Arrieta on the 10-day IL, right hamstring strain
9/16/2020 – Phillies placed RF Kyle Garlick on the 10-day IL, right oblique strain
9/16/2020 – Phillies selected the contract of CF Mickey Moniak from Alternate Training Site
9/15/2020 – Phillies recalled LHP Garrett Cleavinger from Alternate Training Site
9/15/2020 – Phillies signed free agent 1B Greg Bird to an MiLB contract and invited him to spring training
9/15/2020 – Phillies signed free agent C Jonathan Lucroy to an MiLB contract and invited him to spring training
9/15/2020 – Phillies designated 2B Ronald Torreyes for assignment
9/15/2020 – Phillies activated CF Roman Quinn from the 7-day injured list
9/15/2020 – Phillies placed 1B Rhys Hoskins on the 10-day IL retroactive to September 13th, left elbow strain
9/14/2020 – 1B Neil Walker elected free agency
9/14/2020 – Phillies optioned LHP Ranger Suarez to Alternate Training Site
9/14/2020 – Phillies activated 3B Scott Kingery from the 10-day IL
9/14/2020 – Phillies optioned RHP Ramon Rosso to Alternate Training Site

368 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of September 28th”

  2. It is kind of a relief the inevitable has finally happened for this season. Now I’ll just watch the Eag . . . crap. Well, I can be excited about the direction of the Six . . .crap. Well, at least hockey season will start before too long. The Eagles picked a bad time to crap the bed.

    I do have questions about the farm system and minor leagues. Is it possible our farm is maybe better than we thought? I think with the minor league season being cancelled, it is tough to evaluate prospects we were hoping would make a jump. Outside of Bohm and Howard, we didn’t have a lot of mlb ready talent and the inability to watch the minor league progression maybe makes our system look worse than it is. Who knows if any of our lottery tickets made a leap? Like Simmons or Garcia. A year out of the spotlight might be good for Garcia.

    Granted, every team would have been in this same boat but outside of Bohm and Howard, most of our talent was a little further down the pipeline.

    I’m also curious about how pitching prospects who didn’t start the year with their MLB team did this year. I know there were alternate site scrimmages, but it’s just not quite the same. How many minor league starters or relievers actually did well when they were called up? Ian Anderson and Sixto Sanchez would be two that jump out, but I think Mize struggled a bit. Mostly just curious.

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  3. Boy, what a mess these last 2 GM’a have made of this organization. One placed zero emphasis on sabremetrics and analytics, and the other seemed to only focus on those things. 9 straigh losing seasons, early picks for most of those years, and the amount of inexpensive talent we’ve been able to draw from that (Nola and Bohm being the glaring exceptions, and probably Howard) is shameful. MacPhail and Klentak should be gone by the end of the week – at the absolute latest.

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  4. Core group going forward Bohm Hasley wheeler elfin Howard Hoskins Harper. I would check market for Nola. He is not a big man. His best is now and will be fading before this team is competitive for pennant. Best chance to get some younger good talent from rising or team on cusp.

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    1. That is a very interesting suggestion. Last off season, I would have totally disagreed. But what might the Phillies NOW get in return for a former Cy Young contender who is still effective though not an ace, based on his career Sept numbers alone, especially the last 3 Septembers when the team was in the hunt. AND he’s on a reasonably team friendly contract. This might be an idea that the new president of baseball operations would entertain in an effort to jump start the farm system, compose a good bullpen or add a key position player.

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    2. The Phillies will be selling low on Nola if they trade him. I’m a big Nola believer and I have no reason to trade him — this experience will just drive him to be better.

      The Phillies already lost a top notch arm in Sixto, so the last thing we want to see is another home grown talent thrive with another team.

      Nola is the least of the problems with this team. Most experience will tell you that it is harder to perform when you back is against the wall.

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    3. Team is not going to sell off pieces and commit to a total rebuild. Too much invested in the payroll to go there. Despite their failure in 2020, they are not that far away.

      They have 3 above average starting pitchers under team control for extended years.
      Bohm looks like a keeper although probably not at 3b long-term.
      Harper is still under 30 and productive
      Hoskins is a productive player who’s still cheap
      Segura is ok as an everyday regular that can play multiple positions
      Knapp has proven to be a solid #2 catcher.
      They have a number of cheap bench options in the OF. Not earth shattering but underrated when don’t need to spend $$$ to get there.

      Holdovers
      1 more year of McCutchen – average at best but not likely to upgrade in 2021 based on $$
      Kingery – 2021 is a bounce back season or he’s probably sunk cost. Just can’t go into 2021 counting on him being a regular
      Spencer Howard – Struggles in debut but still highly touted prospect who has the ability to be a regular in the rotation. Need to have plan B ready.
      Neris – Has periods of effectiveness but should under no condition be considered the closer
      Brogdon, Arano, Romero, Phelps, etc. – they have some bullpen arms that have a chance to be serviceable but none should be counted on for high-leverage innings until they prove differently.

      Their needs:
      Everyday CF that can play GG level D. They need to get better defensively as a team. I think this aspect of the team is under-recognized as a reason for their poor play.
      3rd/4th starter on a shorter term deal
      resign JTR to a fair contract – 5 years max and not a fan of that 5th year
      SS – Didi had a good year but only resign on a friendly deal. He is another one of those league average offensive, sub-par defensive players they have too many of.
      bullpen arms – FA, trade, develop? – Somehow they need to add some reliable pitchers to the back end of the bullpen.

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  5. If Alec Bohm had 6 more plate appearances, he would have qualified for the batting title and finished in 4th place.

    He has a fantastic swing. Keeps his bat in the zone a long time. Rarely swings at pitches out of the zone and has good natural power.

    He will be an elite hitter for us for a long time. An outcome from this season to be truly happy about.

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      1. No, being on a bad team will hurt any chance he should have. He certainly deserves to be in the conversation but lack of power #’s are also a minus..

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        1. ISO of .143 ranks 114 in the majors, however with only 180 MLB PAs it probably will not be a good reflection on his future isolated power metrics.
          It may be too early in actuality to draw a conclusion what his power will eventually level out at.
          Based upon his complete career…college thru yesterday….should hover between .190 and .200

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  7. Romus another holiday for your people, I wonder if this is the for the time they fled Camden to the promise land of Main Line? is this that one

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  11. Made this prediction last week. With the team cutting payroll and staff they were not going to justify buying out the contract of the GM/President of baseball operations after just giving them an extension.

    Doing so also makes owner look foolish..

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    1. Foolish to other businessmen, perhaps. But much worse to virtually the entire fan base, most of whom spend good money supporting the Phillies.

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    2. You know what really makes the owner (who is worth 3.5 billion dollars) look foolish?
      Putting the MacPhail/Klentak duo on a short leash after 2019, not being one of the 53% of teams to make the playoffs in 2020 (despite a maxed out payroll), and then bringing back those same two men to run the club in 2021.

      It’s official. The Phillies are in this mess because of the owner. This is a John Middleton disaster. Let’s hope he flies around the country for the next four or five days to gather opinions (again) before he makes this calamitous decision.

      Just for the PR alone, it would be worth Middleton firing (and eating the money owed to) MacPhail and Klentak.

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      1. Of course it’s because of the owner. All business succeed/fail based on leadership. There’s a reason some organizations always seem to get lucky and other don’t

        What is the ownership philosophy of the Phillies?

        Grow the arms/buy the bats? – Doesn’t appear to be so
        Win by spending? – Not fully committed to that approach
        Prospect development? – trading prospects like Sanchez for JTR doesn’t support that approach.

        I don’t see an overriding organizational philosophy that guides how they do business and that comes from ownership.

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      2. @Hinkie – if Middleton kept Klentak, it is now clear to me that Middleton just wants POWER when he forced himself to be the face of the franchise. I probably given Middleton not just my hard earned $$ but also the respect that he doesn’t deserve.

        I respect Middleton as a decision make because I though he is genuine in his quest to bring back the glory days of the 2000s. That $+up!d money thing gives me hope but the hold that McPhail and Klentak on him is really mind boggling.

        I mentioned about being accountable to yourself in the earlier thread. McPhail and Klentak don’t have it. Any professional with sense of decency will already asked to be relieved of their roles due to lack of success. Not this duo — who will say no to big $$ when millions of Americans rely on unemployed compensation to make ends meet. I lost empathy to this group of people who I think are screwing up the $$ paying fans like us.

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    3. Personally, he looked most foolish when he gave out the extensions. The only way he can look more foolish is by keeping them. Just run your fingers over to the account tabbed “Foolish Money” and take it from there!

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      1. Looks like the $+Up!d money means $ paid to McPhail and Klentak and their extensions — spent $+Up!d money to mediocrity is what Middleton really means!

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  12. Hiring good people is hard. Picking the right person in an interview process can be hard. Firing the wrong person after they’ve worked for you and failed for years…..should not be hard.

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  13. Would not be selling low on Nola. No one thinks he’s number 1. I doubt anyone thinks he is tiring it is only a little past third of a season. Some pitchers hit couple game rough patch during 160 game season. He would be the difference for team that is close.

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    1. The odds of trading Nola and getting a future #1 is real slim. You would have to take a serious gamble and for the GM making this trade, it could blow up in your face and cost you your job easy. As I have mentioned before, there are no guarantees in prospects. Imagine if the Phillies traded Nola and got back somebody like Casey Mize. Mize was a top 15 pick before the season. Have you seen his numbers for Detroit?

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  14. I was thinking a package of players but you could be right. But if this team stays static we may be struggling to get over .500 for foreseeable future.

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    1. The only motivation to trade Nola is if the Phillies doesn’t intend to win in the near future. If you don’t like Nola — that’s fine. If you think Nola is not a good SP — that’s also fine. But every team will need a Nola in their rotation regardless of their personal intention. Whether Nola is a #1, #2 or #3 — that quality arm is hard to find and develop. Once you have one, you don’t simply give it away unless your team is rebuilding similar to ChiSox when they traded Chris Sale.

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      1. He is 6 1 in his prime lives by his off speed stuff. This team can neither buy it’s way to competition nor build it through farm system in next 2-3 years. Only way to truest compete for WS is to step back get some ammo in minors and clear some $$ to try again. Last 5 ur rebuild was failed attempt

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          1. OMG Romus you need to get out of the house and get a new job, Cusp of World Series, They need two more starters at least, three bullpen arms, A center fielder, maybe a catcher, Second basemen, and guys who can hit in the clutch, All with them being at the top of the salary cap

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            2. I’ll have whatever Romus is drinking.
              In all seriousness, everything would have to go right for the Phillies to contend. There is absolutely no margin for error/injuries/regression of young pieces (Bohm/Howard/Brogdon/Romero) because the club has no depth.

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        2. That’s too late for the Phillies thanks to Klentak. First, the Phillies should have traded their top prospect in Sixto which they did. Second, the Phillies shouldn’t allocate a big amount of their $$ to 2 players which they did.

          You are basically asking for something that cannot be undone anymore. We’re are already too late to say “Phillies should have done this and that”. Where are you before this decisions had been made? It is easy to say things after the fact just to say ” I told you so…”

          Think of something that are actionable and make sense. Here’s an example — Fire McPhail and Klentak. This action alone will significantly improve the current situation. Another is cut ties with players with marginal talents or avoid acquiring FAs from recycling bins.

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      2. KK James flipping James Shields landed the Padres Tatis JR. You look at that trade in hindsight and say boy was that dumb on the Chisox part.

        Chris Archer returned Meadows and Glasnow.

        We need a GM that can make deals like that for us. Players that can play and have years of control.

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        1. For every Tatis type trade like that, there are minimum 5 trades that don’t work out i.e. Yelich for Lewis Brinson. You have to get lucky.

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  15. The difference between the Phillies and being a top tier team this year is bullpen performance. Which was historically bad. So who takes responsibility for that?

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    1. Don’t think so. This team cannot manufacture runs. Depend on long ball too much. That is what Klentak and McPhailure are telling Middleton right now. We get some bullpen pieces we can win this. Hope he don’t buy it.

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  17. .

    Jon Heyman has released a new Big Time Baseball podcast. It includes a couple Phillies notes:

    * Thinks there is a decent chance Klentak is back because he’s still owed two years, and he’s still supported by Andy MacPhail.

    * Hearing pessimism from Phillie people about their ability to sign JTR. The sides are far apart. Realmuto had been seeking a Joe Mauer-esqu 8 year deal. Thinks someone will offer him more than 5 years (could be the Phillies). Lists the Mats, Yankees, and Nationals as possible players for JTR. If Realmuto leaves, Phillies (and other clubs) will probably chase Trevor Bauer.

    I said it earlier … now is not the time for an owner who is worth 3.5 B dollars to keep a GM because he’s owed money. And … of course Andy MacPhail still supports Klentak. If Klentak goes, Middleton will probably have to show MacPhail the door (or at least remove him from his current post) because to get one of the top candidates, the Phillies will have to offer them the President of Baseball Operations title.

    Finally, cannot blame Middleton/Klentak for going 8 years on JT Realmuto. Maybe he finds a depressed FA market because of COVID, and settles for five and a vesting option.

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  18. .

    So … there’s that.

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  19. .

    Sad to hear. I remember sitting right behind 1st base as a kid a few times, and Jay Johnstone interacting with us. Nice guy. Fun guy.

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    2. Wow, what a fond memory, growing up in the ’70s. He was such a colorful guy. Hard to believe he play 20 years in the majors, only 5 with the Phillies. Didn’t he bat .338 one season here? Maybe 1977 – arguably the best Phillies roster in franchise history.

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      1. I didn’t realize that JayBird played in Philly from 1974 to 1978. Prior to JJ, Bill Robinson was in RF, then he shared RF with Mike Anderson, DownTown Ollie Brown & Jerry Martin, then in 1978 he was replaced by Bake McBride. I miss the mid to late ’70’s.

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        1. You will never believe who Jay J’s roommate was when he first came up with the Angels, and the team went on the road…..Jimmy Piersall
          Said he taught him everything he needed to know about playing the outfield, among a few other extracurricular things.

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          1. That explains a lot about Jay’s personality. I thought he was a party-animal but then I read in his Obits that he was married for 52 years, he got married when he was 22. Probably another side that I didn’t know about.

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            1. Piersall in a June 23 game against the Phillies and pitcher Dallas Green hit his 100th HR. His celebration home run trot route was in correct order (1st to home plate) but, he ran it backwards. Hard to be a roommate of Jimmy and not pickup a few quirks. Good memories, a lot to like about the 70’s. RIP Jay.

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            2. Skeet…yeah, saw that ….it was a bit comical…players were even laughing….not sure Dallas Green though…..some in attendance weren’t amused either, namely the commissioner of baseball Ford Frick and Piersall’s skipper Casey Stengel. Stengel was so pissed that he released him just two days later

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          2. Romus…….Casey Stengel was reported to say that Jimmy was the best defensive outfielder he ever had play for him…………..and he had “Jumping Joe DiMaggio” and Whitey too! Agggghhhh the Mets……Casey lined them up on the first base line in spring training and said “this is a bat and this is a ball”, what a great game!😂

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            1. Yeah Skeet….baseball had many characters way back when.
              Casey was definetly one of them.
              I remember Casey had the Mets in the mid 60s,
              …and the Mets had this 20 year hot catching prospect named Greg Goosen.
              And the writers asked him in spring training in Florida, what did he think about this kid catcher
              He said …”Oh yeah, Goosen is 20 years old and in 10 years from now, there is a good chance he will be 30″
              That was it.
              Seems every team back then had real zany character guys.

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          3. Nothing could have been more pathetic as watching Piersall, who suffered from mental issues, than watching Anthony Perkins play him in his biopic. (Forget the title.) He was about as athletic as he was as Norman Bates in Psycho, with a bat instead of a knife.

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  20. If Middleton is worried that he will still owe Klentak $6M over the next 2 years – he needs to realize that Klentak will sign FAs equal to or more than $6M in guaranteed contract value for these FAs to suck and drag the Phillies to the ground.

    We should not be worried about Klentak losing his job because I think that $6M is guaranteed. Give met even 1 /3 of that amount and I can retire comfortably and I’m only a few years older than Klentak.

    I don’t really like the waiting game that Middleton is playing. Maybe he is consulting with others before he pulled the plug but it also gives an impression that he is too attached to certain personalities and in this business this personal attachment can be detrimental to the success of the team.

    HOU cheated and there’s no excuse for that misdeed. But one thing HOU did very well is to trade their players before they lose value since HOU are not too attached to their players or certain personalities. On the other hand, PHI is soooooooooo attached that they rather keep the player, drag the team due to suckage and let them go for nothing.

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  21. Well the playoffs are upon us… Beyond the disappointment of another Philly-less post season I have to give the MLB a tip of the cap to pulling this off..Initially things looked bleak with the Cardinals not playing for 17 days and close 30% of MLB teams losing some time to COVID-19 issues… Yet the MLB persevered. In hindsight 60 games was about right..Too many managers and players have commented that the season has been a grind and 60 games felt like 180… If the MLB had accepted the MLBPA first offer of 100 games I think we would have seen a lot more opt outs as the season progressed knowing under the conditions they were playing the players still had another 50 games to go. I’m going to enjoy the playoffs… Hope for a long Padres push to see what that up and coming team has to offer… Is this the year for the Dodgers? Do the Rays shock the world to win the World Series and with the Lightening make Tampa the new Title Town USA for 2020?

    For us Phillies fans the sun will rise tomorrow and God willing our day is coming..

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  22. Todd Zolecki was just on 94 with Cataldi. Zolecki is normally very moderate in his perceptions and opinions. He was much less so today, basically calling for change. I would have to think that even if he hasn’t gotten official word, the vibe within must be that it’s gonna happen. Even though Bob Brookover tweeted a source to the contrary, Klentak has not been given any assurance regarding his status.

    Let’s get it over with, Johnny boy!

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    1. 8mark … I didn’t hear him, but yes … I have to agree with you. If Todd Zo is publicly speaking out about Klentak, then that’s a pretty good indication Bob Brookover’s report is wrong. Jim Salisbury also doesn’t see Klentak as a sure bet to be back. I’m gonna’ bet Brookover’s source was Andy MacPhail. MacPhail is backing Klentak because if the GM goes, Middleton (IMO) is going to have to remove Andy from his post (maybe make him another advisor). Not to beat a dead horse … but … to get one of the experienced/top candidates, they’ll most likely need to be offered MacPhail’s title.

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      1. Hinkie, he also asserted that it would have to happen sooner than later because so many other FO positions, assistants and such, need to be filled heading into the off season.

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      2. Hinkie we need to do one of those intersection for Romus, If He really believes this team is on the brink of a title, We can have it at the Penrose Diner, i worry about that statement he made,

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  23. Another not so delightful aspect of this team is their lack of left handed pitching in the rotation. How do you miss on that so many times.

    They are going to be dealing with Soto, Freeman and a bunch of Mets LHH for a while

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    1. DMAR….I agree.
      I especially thought that Joe G. would make a point of getting a proven lefty in that rotation … this may be the first year in his managerial career he did not have one in there….he had 2/3 when he was managing the Yankees in some years….though starting LHPs in Yankee Stadium has been a doctrine that they have subscribed to for decades due to the distancing in right field..

      Drew Smyly could have easily been re-signed during the off-season….so Kapler goes ahead and makes his point for him in SF once he gets that manager’s job.
      He is a free agent again.
      Also, Paxton will be out there this off-season and maybe he is due for a correction.

      In house:
      Perhaps Erik Miller will come around…or maybe Damon Jones.
      Parkinson seems to be a controlled soft- tosser with some potential.
      Looks like Ranger is bound for the relief corps

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  24. Not sure how the dominoes are going to fall. Will this have any impact on Klentak or MacPhail’s jobs? What does it mean for the team’s chances of re-signing JTR and/or Didi? Lots of questions.

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    1. You mean like spending up to the salary cap limit? Yeah, he’s been a real cheapskate.

      C’mon – there are tons of arguments against what Middleton has done, but being cheap really isn’t one of them.

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    2. I know you are frustrated and I’ve been frustrated since day 1 of McPhail hiring. The are a lot of issues and failed management decisions and being cheap and Nola are least of those issues.

      Middleton’s main issue is letting mediocrity far too longer. He hired average-ish FO to deliver good results when this FO delivered substandard results consistent with their track record – Middleton should just move on from them and not extend them.

      The Phillies team’s issue is the lack of depth and significant holes in key areas. Nola, JTR, Harper, Wheeler (yes, he also lost his last 2 important starts) are least of the problem. A good GM should be able to surround Nola, JTR, Harper, Wheeler with reliable supporting casts. If Klentak just got an eye for at least 1 (just 1) pen arm, the Phillies could have gotten that needed 1 win to make the playoffs.

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    3. These owners didn’t become rich by throwing money away. They want to win, but they don’t want to lose money. It’s still a business to run. Out of all my years of watching sports, you can probably count on 1 hand how many owners that are willing to spend like crazy to win.

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  26. And if you think these monetary austerity measures are going to stop at internal staff, you’re wrong. Baseball is in the midst of a massive financial crisis. It’s enormous. The team allegedly lost $100 million this year, and I’m guessing that might be close to accurate. I don’t care how rich you are, $100 million in losses changes what you are going to do. How can it not?

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    1. In May, MLB owners projected they would lose $640K per game in ticket sales alone if fans were unable to attend, and the league overall $4B if they were to play only the initial proposal of 82 games….who knows how accurate that estimate was 4 months ago, but by all accounts so far the losses have been monumental, hurting the small market teams even more so.

      JTR and the other big free agents may have to adjust their thinking on what offers they initially expected before April.. Mookie Betts. looks like he made a good decision early on in his process.

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      1. Not to nitpick but unrealized profits are not a loss… Therefore the inability to capture the $640k in ticket sales to cover expenses can’t be listed as a loss..

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          1. @romus – financial (or accounting) loss is expenditures > revenues. And there are also a matter of cash flow. Capital expenditures are not normally accounted as direct expenditures but rather capitalized and written off thru annual depreciation (non-cash).

            The main issue that MLB (or any company) are “fixed costs” – these are costs that the teams need to incur/pay whether they have revenue or not. Interests from debts and guaranteed salary are the main killer since it affects both expenditures and cash and they amount doesn’t normally change whether a team has $0 revenue or $100M revenue.

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            1. KuKo…understand.
              No matter how we interpret the balance sheet…… philophy and decisions will be made by the clubs that will be different than in prior years due to unexpected financial hardships.

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            2. @romus – i think most teams primary concern will be the cash flows. this covid thing took away the revenue stream so the owners need to cover the fixed costs with their own money.

              For the Phillies, I’m not sure if Comcast provides the full $ in their contract or if there are some stipulations affective the adjusted cash given to the Phillies.

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            3. So, are we also saying that Middleton won’t fire Klentak and MacPhail because, under the economic uncertainty of the entire industry, he can’t “afford” to? If that’s the case, then Phillies fans are royally screwed.

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      2. If you’re an owner with deep pockets, you might be able to grab some FA talent at a cheap cost. Because you figure that there will be a lot of teams that will bottom feed for talent because they don’t want to spend after losing all that money.

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    2. Not only that, there’s no way that baseball starts in 2021 without fans. The owners will definitely not go through that again. So if you want baseball in 2021, do your part, stay safe and follow safety protocols.

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    3. John Middleton took great pride and expounded on the comparison between himself and Yankees iconic owner George Steinbrenner. Now, whether he understands the implications of such a comparison, both fiscally and competitively, is another question. The Phillies have perennially behaved as a small market team, until Middleton stepped up with his wallet and his mouth a few years ago. What he’s not showing us as fans is the decisiveness (why take a whole week to decide whether to fire Gabe Kapler last year?) in recognizing the moment to act doesn’t require surveying everyone but Santa Claus about what action is needed. Nobody but nobody will blame him for firing MacPhail and Klentak. John, just do it now and figure out the rest. Please!

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  27. catch, Here is my view on ownership risks in a big market. Yes, they will lose money, meaning less income, for this year, and quite possibly, part of next. Let’s assume that the number is $100 Million. The Bucks and John Middleton, pursuant to their % of ownership, put into the team that % of the $100M. That is additional Owner’s capital equity, and upon the sale of the team, they receive their $100M back off the top, plus their share of the approximately $1.5-2 Billion that the team is worth. Also, they have made a significant profit in at least 4 of the last 9 years, as they haven’t spent anywhere close to $207M, when their was not a pandemic. This sounds like a real financial problem to us working stiffs. It is not. If he wants to win, he can spend what is needed, or he can sell the team, and add about a Billion dollars to his portfolio. But, what he can’t do, is backtrack on his “doing anything to win”, and “the only reason to own a sports franchise is to win!” comments. It is tough around the league, so who should benefit more than John Middleton? This is his chance to add talent to the team, not complain about having to eat $6M to move on from a failed GM.

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    1. matt13…..and that 25 yr/$2.5B Comcast deal started in 2016, five years ago…the initial payment was aporox $65M with increases each year thereafter.

      Like

    3. I am struggling to see your point. I don’t think he’s done anything but acknowledge what everyone knows is happening – owners are losing a lot of money. I mean a real lot of money. I don’t see him complaining about eating $6 m from a failed GM – that’s what others are saying, not necessarily Middleton.

      Regardless of what you think about him, it’s a really big deal if, as I suspect, the team was $100 million cash flow negative this year with the very legitimate threat that some or all of next year will be the same. It’s such a big deal that they are laying off staff, which is tough, but that’s what happens when you have a business that’s losing a lot of money.

      The “good” news is that other teams are losing tons of money too – they are almost all in the same boat. And while I think this will dramatically affect the FA market, it really should have just about nothing to do with whether they need a new president and GM – those decisions are so important they shouldn’t be affected by their salaries even if they are sizable. If they are, then shame on him.

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  28. Oh,I can dream that John Middleton will do the right thing and hire good baseball people for his front office!
    Seems to me, someone from a small market team that is already good would love to have this job. Lot’s of money to spend compared to their current team.

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    1. You would think, right? This is what the Dodgers did when they nabbed Andrew Friedman from Tampa Bay. What a coup!

      Seriously, the GM is, by far and away, the most important person in your baseball organization in my view. So when you come away from a lengthy search with the very average (or below average) Matt Klentak, it takes your organization on a 5-7 year detour and that’s exactly what we’ve had under this regime and lengthy and expensive detour. We certainly haven’t gotten anywhere.

      I have to tell you, though, knowing the Phillies, they will learn the “wrong” lesson from the Klentak experience. I am concerned that they will feel they need and old-time “baseball guy” having concluded that he analytics approach failed. And so the organization will, again, move backwards when the baseball world is moving forward. I really hope I’m wrong.

      The problem wasn’t new thinking or analytics, the problem was/is Matt Klentak and the scouting and developmental teams.

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      1. Come to think about it, are there really many old-time baseball GMs still around and/or active….Dan O’ Dowd may be one of the last and he is on the MLB network.
        Dombrowski is floating out there and heard Angels could be a possibility with him.
        Most of the oldies may have moved on or retired.
        However, Middleton may look at those types to replace MacPhail

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  29. Player A: .330/.460/.649/1.109 OPS. 19.0% BB rate; 20.0% K rate. BABIP .369. Ave EV: 91.4. Hard Hit %: 48.0%. GB %: 38.5%

    Player B: .268/.420/.542/1.008 OPS. 20.1% BB rate; 17.6% K Rate. BABIP .279. Ave EV: 92.3. Hard Hit %: 48.7%. GB %: 36.1%

    So looking at the two players, Player B, hit the ball harder, a higher percentage of the time, struck out less, had a lower ground ball rate but ended up with a BABIP 90 points lower and a batting average 62 points lower.

    I think that it is safe to say that Player B got unlucky and deserved to have an event better production than the 1.008 OPS

    Player A is Bryce Harper’s 2015 MVP Season.
    Player B is Bryce Harper’s 2020 season.

    Bryce had another elite year in 2020. If he had more luck, he would be the MVP. He hit a lot of balls hard that were caught.

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    1. v1…..does the difference in games played make a difference in the BABIP?
      For Harper it was a 400 PA difference.

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      1. No. BABIP is an average, not a counting stat. How many games played does not impact a batting average on balls in play. It is simply a result of balls that were put in play resulting in an out or a safe hit. Homers do not count on BABIP either.

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    2. How much of this can be attributed to The move towards “the shift.” This is one of the reasons I’m against it, just boring imo, it’s Like the trap in hockey

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      1. Great question. That is probably the answer. Vs the shift 2015/2020
        – BA: .387 / .290
        – wRC+: 146 / 79
        – wOBA: .386 / .291
        – GB / FB 1.61 / 0.98
        – 2015: 39.7% pull vs 22.2% oppo
        – 2020: 38.9% pull vs 26.2% oppo

        So it seems that the shift has gotten better at defending Bryce. he went oppo more and hit more balls in the air (ground balls have the lowest BABIP) against the shift and still had a worse outcome vs. the shift.

        https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bryce-harper/11579/splits?season=0&position=OF&split=12.2

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        2. That is interesting. Harper face the shift the same number of times, but pretty different results. I think the one thing the #’s don’t show is how pronounced the shift was from 2015 vs 2020. Going off memory, the shift seems ‘heavier” than back in 2015. For instance I don’t remember the 3rd basemen playing SS and the SS playing directly up the middle. The 4 OF shift in ST was new to me as well. I’d like if baseball but some limitations on how far a player can shift. To me, it hurts the game, and it turn hurts the players not only per year but also I’m their hof pursuit. Are voters going to account for the shift when deciding? Doubtful imo.

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          1. Tac3…one tactic Harper likes to use to combat the shift is bunting.
            ……in 2015 he had two bunt hits in two tries ….and in 2020 he also had two bunt hits in his six tries…..so do not think that wuld make much difference in the BABIP results.
            And even his plate discipline from ’15 to ’20, in most instances, are rather close to each other.

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  30. Klentak needs to be swapped out and send Andy with him. 5 years in and we’re nowhere. Harper is here because of the owner. Klentak made very few moves that weren’t very deliberate. His analysis paralysis wasn’t great. His inability to find more pitching with upside really hurt. He ended up giving away Nick Williams for nothing although he had value at one time. It’s hard to blame the drafts on him and they at least made a change there that we’ll have to wait and see whether Barber was an upgrade. The minor league development system was also terrible but it’s too soon to know whether the changes made will help. It’s also unknown as to whether this was a lost year for many prospects. I hope the major leagues make a change to not count this as a service year for anyone not on a 60 man roster. We don’t even know what things will look like by next spring training. A GM change will at least offer hope to us fans. We need hope. The Sixers, Phillies, and Eagles have all robbed us of hope currently. Bad time to be a philly sports fan.
    And RIP JayJ

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  31. I have to wonder just how aggressive MLB owners will be this offseason given that there are no guarantees on what baseball 2021 will look like. The way back to packed stadiums is a vaccine. Regardless of what white house officials or anyone else might say, the average development time to bring a safe and effective vaccine to the market has historically been 10 to 12 years. With the intense global effort to develop one, that time horizon could be significantly shortened but it can only be a wild guess as to by how much. An optimistic scenario is that we are a year away, which would mean another year of empty or partially filled stadiums.

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    1. It won’t be empty, but it’ll be partially filled. There’s no way owners are going to lose money like that in 2021.

      Full stadiums won’t be back without herd immunity. And that won’t happen without an effective vaccine (> 70%) and people taking it.

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      1. guru – We have no idea how attendance will be handled next year. It could very well be another year of cardboard cutouts. Maybe we get 10% or 20% of stadium capacity. No one can say with certainty given the data that is available today.

        Also, I don’t understand the point you are trying to make. In one line you state that “There’s no way owners are going to lose money like that in 2021.” How do you know this? Then you say, “Full stadiums won’t be back without herd immunity. And that won’t happen without an effective vaccine (> 70%) and people taking it.” Yes, I agree. But your two statements appear contradictory to me. No one can say when an effective vaccine will be available, which means owners face a great deal of uncertainty going into the offseason.

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        2. If the Phillies lost $100M in 2020, it stands to reason that they DON’T want to do that again in 2021. So if there is a season for 2021, there will be limited fans there.

          There will be a vaccine approved by the end of the year. Most analysts believe that this will happen due to the amount of effort (and money) thrown into it. We hope that the vaccine is 100% safe. We hope that the vaccine is effective (>70%). However, I have read stories that even if the vaccine is only 50-60% effective, it will still be approved. The only way that the vaccine won’t be approved is if it’s a total dud.

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    2. If your comment “we are a year away” meaning development and administration to to the populous to achieve herd immunity. Possibly… But the vaccine will be brought to market in the 4th qtr of 2020 or January 2021 at the latest..

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  32. Herd immunity will likely not occur in this country till fall of 2021. Most people will not get second shot of vaccine till late summer. Many people will forgo second vaccine shot because the illness they experience from first shot. So long road for all businesses.

    Jobs in I never said Nola is problem. Not sure why u keep stating this. Nola is most expendable valuable asset they have to supplement a weak farm system. He is in his prime and will either be declining and or too expensive when they are truly competitive.

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  34. So far crickets from the Managing Partner…suppose there has been lengthy discussions and sidebars with the Bucks yesterday and today….the longer the jury is out…the more unrewarding it is for Matt Klentak.
    If he were staying it probably would have been announced yesterday or today.
    Perhaps tomorrow may be verdict day…without any appeal process.

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    1. Romus, the company line could be…well. he’s under contract for 2 more years…what announcement needs to be made? I doubt they will go there because someone like Salisbury or Zolecki would have gotten that confirmed.

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      1. 8mark…I see your point.
        But Middleton cannot have a deaf ear to the audience…he must hear their pleas.
        When writers are writing it….not a good thing.
        So getting close to the time for him to address it one way or the other.
        Most owners will give their end of season closing remarks after they deliberate on how they will coin their evaluation of their team’s performance…

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        1. I really thought it was a joke, That Middleton would keep Klentak, I Just dont get it, He has wasted more money, imo on pitchers than any other G.M i can recall, How do you sell keeping Klentak to the Season Ticket Holders, His Evaluation or his peoples on players hasnt been good, and yet he will keep his job, crazy.

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  35. Last year kapler fault this year Klentak. Girardi the manager would make the difference.

    Tampa keeps losing genius FO leaders and keeps improving. Red Sox win 3 WS 2 different GMs cut bait fairly quickly and start rebuild. The secret owners who u don’t hear a lot but win.

    Philly owners for some reason almost always make wrong decisions or not as driven to win

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  36. It’s driving me crazy. Can someone help me with the counter argument, assuming there is a debate going on. I get the “we can’t waste $6 Million while layoffs are going on.” So the answer to that is “what the heck, let’s lose for 2 more years.” There is the fact that Klentak brought in an analytics department that Middleton wanted. But, the results have been, shall we say? Less Than optimum. Maybe Middleton feels guilty? Klentak went to him and said the BP was awful and would probably cost the team 6-8 games, and Middleton said “too bad! That International money is crucial to our future!” I am not so sure that happened. Otherwise, I am lost as to the reasons not to move on.

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    1. matt13:
      “There are a bunch of nervous employees in Philly, and it sounds like it is imminent that a GM change will be made,” the source said in a text Tuesday night. Phillies managing partner John Middleton, the source added, “wrestles with some of the simplest decisions.”…Brookover

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      1. Romus, in that same piece by Brookover, he quotes his source as saying that the Phillies built up the analytics dept so much that now they have to lay people off. The source also agreed that Klentak needs to be let go.

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  37. So just to play Devil’s Advocate a little bit here.

    Johnny Almeraz was scouting Director before the Phillies hired Klentak. Between Him the lack of talent we had from the Amaro years how much of the current teams issues do you attribute to Klentak.

    As bad as this year was we still had a Top 5 offense in the league. I know it is so easy to pile on but between that and having Nola and Wheeler locked up are we really that far away from competing?

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    1. In my opinion, this team could conceivably catch lightning in a bottle with a few standout performances by key players and a surprise or two from a young talent out of the blue, or an addition that exceeds expectations. BUT to sustain success with this current construction of the roster will take some time, work and good fortune.

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    2. Compare the Phillies to the Dodgers and (especially) the Braves. Do you think this organization can compete with them? We’re light years behind them with no realistic way to catch up. Those two teams have better and deeper rosters, better farm systems, and the Braves have a way more flexible payroll situation. MacPhail/Klentak seem like nice guys, but they have not captained an impressive rebuild.

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      1. Your post really nails the divide. It’s having top-notch farm systems, which means they not only draft fairly well and have success in the international market, and are able to acquire young talent in trades, but they have the right philosophy and instruction in place to develop that talent. The Phillies inability to draft well, sign J2 players, and make smart trades, will forever relegate them to second class status in baseball.

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      2. You have completely nailed it. This is a struggling organization and is light years behind the best franchises. Sure, Klentak was hired to make the playoffs, but, more importantly, he was hired to make this organization, top to bottom, among the best in baseball and, in my view, we are still well in the bottom half looking up. The fact that we nearly made the playoffs is mostly attributable to large amounts of money spent and you don’t get any special GM credit for that. It just obscures the other, more fundamental, failings of the organization. This franchise is not in very good shape at all and the rebuild gets like a C- or D.

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  38. Bosss, You have to look at Klentak’s 5 years. Not just this year, where we can point to a hundred different ways we could have won 1 more game. Therefore, been in the Playoffs, whether that really would have meant anything or not. Despite the Top 5 offense, we struggled to add to leads, often shutting down vs. the opposition BP. We did not play good Defense. We, however, lost not 1 game, but at least 6, because of the GM’s inability to put together a BP that was even below average. The plan was flawed from the get go. He let Robertson’s injury scare him from a multi year deal for a bona fide Reliever. Forget the debacle of the trade deadline acquisitions. The plan going in was terrible. Now go back the last 2 years and see us collapse in September. The first year he believed, wrongly, that we did not need SP help. We had good first halves from VV, Pivetta, and Eflin. What were the chances that all 3 would finish the year strong? Really slim. Yet, our GM did nothing. They, all 3, collapsed, and we had an awful September. Year #2, we need SP again at the deadline. Our GM said “nope, we will get a bunch of bench bats instead.” Pitching collapsed, so did we. Year # 3. Had Klentak addressed the BP, we would have been in the Playoffs comfortably. He would then have been able to get another SP, and given us an even better chance to do something in the Playoffs. Instead, he had to scramble to try to get 1 good RP out of 4 chances. How did that work out? Poorly. So, I ask you, what about Matt Klentak has earned him a 4th try to screw up Pitching decisions?

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  39. When Klentak took over, the Phillies are rock bottom so there’s only one way to go — UP!!! Klentak did managed to move up from rock bottom but considering the high draft picks, millions of IFA $ spent and resources from ownership (payroll $, infrastructure, etc) — the improvements that Klentak achieved are very underwhelming. There is no other way to justify the lack of success by this FO. Forget about the top not teams like LAD, ATL, etc — normally the 1st 1-3 years of a rebuilding team yields an influx of good talents due to high draft picks and trade returns of good veterans — MIA and Jeter probably did a better job than Klentak and McPhail since MIA made the playoffs few years after they hit rock bottom.

    The old regime waited too long to move on from Amaro. Middleton is not different since he is also gun shy to move on from McPhail and Klentak. It seems to be an issue with the ownership themselves — they are like those “one time big time” guys.

    The Phillies fans deserve better than this kind of ownership team. Too bad, there’s nothing we can do as fans. Fans don’t have a recourse like an election to boot whoever is running the Phillies.

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    1. Kuko, our recourse as fans is to stay home and not watch the games on TV. That is the strongest statement fans can make.

      As for the JTR situation, I understand that MLB has been economically impacted by the covid fallout. However, not re-signing him is NOT an option which Middleton can entertain because no team is going to offer him 8 yrs. If a 6th year option is necessary, so be it. But at the end of the day, Middleton should NEVER have allowed this to become something the organization now must sweat over. That’s poor leadership and lack of foresight. Realmuto said well before publicly that he wants to stay here. Jim says there was no way. Who am I to question his source? But nonetheless, the owner should have aggressively stepped in a few months after trading Sixto, when JTR realized he likes the organization, and seized the opportunity preemptively, made him an offer he couldn’t refuse. The Dodgers did it in a much smaller window with Mookie. But again, as second class citizens pretending to be among the elite, the Phillies are a day late and a dollar short.

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      1. if you’re Mookie Betts and somebody offers you a 12 year, $365M deal, you take it because odds are, nobody is going to offer you more. But deals like this don’t normally work out. I’m looking at some of the big contracts the Dodgers have given out to their hitters in the last decade or so:

        Matt Kemp: 8 years, $160M at age 27. He signed this deal after he posted a 8 WAR season. For the next 3 years, he posted total 4.7 WAR. Then the Dodgers traded him away to the Padres.

        Adrian Gonzalez: 7 years, $154M at age 29. He signed this deal with the Red Sox but they traded him to the Dodgers and Adrian mostly played this contract with the Dodgers. Adrian spent 5.25 years for the Dodgers and he gave them 14.3 WAR which isn’t great. The last year of his deal, the Dodgers essentially gave him away to the Braves, who promptly DFAd him.

        Really, the only big money deal that the Dodgers gave that worked out was Kershaw at 7 years, $215M at age 26.

        So giving Mookie Betts the money looks great now, but I can’t recall any huge contract given to a hitter that has worked out when the hitter has been able to perform in their mid 30s and beyond. And the Phillies are in the same boat with Bryce Harper. Don’t be complaining if he starts to decline at age 34-35.

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        1. Guru.. very good analysis.
          Those deals rarely worked out until the end….and I suppose everyone realizes that
          And this is where the players have the advantage.
          And even in the case of Kershaw….he has done wonderful regular season wise, but has come up smallish to many Dodger faithful in the play-offs, specifically the World Series.

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    2. I definitely get what you are saying. Is it fair to blame Klentak for those early drafts when Johnny A was hired before he arrived and was in charge of them? I’m not saying I know the answer but their is an argument the organization was trending in the right direction the last couple years in the draft and the minor league season not being played derailed us being able to notice that.

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  42. I think it’s interesting that some don’t think JTR will get 7-8 years . . . I believe it’s been said that he’s working off of Mauer’s contract – 8 years 184m. I think the Mets owner will get damn close to that if not slightly over. Don’t care what anyone says, you don’t sign him to more than 5 year contract, 6 if it’s a mutual or team option. He’s a catcher, he’s injury prone and it would hamstring us to make more that are more important. JTR importance, imho, is more so perception than actually NEEDED him in the line up.
    Just think about any contract that is signed by someone at 30 for over 6 years, not many work out for the signing team.

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    1. I get your point on the importance of JTR’s presence on the Phillies. You may be right. And if so, then yes, trading Sixto was a terrible idea, unless they spend “his” money on acquiring players who collectively make up the difference.

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    2. The time to give JTR a 7 year contract was immediately after the trade. He made $5.9m in 2019 and $10m (prorated to much lower due to Corona) in 2020. If they ripped up the 2019/2020 contract and added 5 years on the back of it making him the highest paid catcher, then we would have locked him up for his prime years. And I don’t believe anyone who says that he wouldn’t have signed that deal.

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      1. I agree with that…the time has past, it…a LTC…should have been offered to him once the trade was made, Feb 2019, like you say.
        Looking back at the landscape…..Santana’s contract was sent to Seattle exactly two months earlier so there was some cap space after that trade. Then there was the Roberston signing in Jan 2019.
        I surely hope that did not influence the Phillies to avoid offering JTR a LTC the following month.

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  43. Where do the Phillies go from here? Will they keep both JTR and Didi? Do they only keep one? Or do they lose both because of the economics of the sport, in which a team with better overall talent and the payroll flexibility has what it takes to offer JTR a contract that John Middleton can’t match?

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    1. Depending on what that guy in NY offers and does with the JTR situation, the minimum he will be signing for looks to be $25M AAV.
      Didi will surely get more than his current salary , and I say somewhere around $17/18M AAV (since a QO is approx $19M) and he will want at least 3 years.
      If Middleton does not intend to bust the threshold…..with the other needs they will have…I am not sure they can do both. They may be able to cut some corners and stay with some current players, and squeeze by.

      OTOH, if Middleton says heck with it….lets go ahead and go over the threshold…then it is doable.

      Like

      1. Perhaps Didi might have gotten 3 years before the pandemic, but I don’t think so now. Didi is a league average player, and he’ll be 31 in February. He’s already in decline. The maximum the Phillies should give is 2 years, $30M.

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        1. Probably he will have to settle for 2 plus a club option/buy-out.
          IMO, I would try to get Andrelton Simmons maybe at a lower AAV ….but defensively a plus fielder. Segura can concentrate on 2nd base.

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          1. I don’t have an issue with Simmons, but you need to know that he’s declining too. He’s almost pure glove at this point, which means he’s a borderline backup. As such, he should cost less than Didi. Expect 675-700 OPS for the next few years. I would go 2 years, $26M or 1 year, $15M.

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    1. Cowser at 1-13 seems about right.
      If Barber continues drafting for tools, he could target Levi Usher (Louisville OF) or RHP Chase Petty. Petty is not too far from me (Mainland Regional HS in Linwood). Would the Phillies pick a prep arm in the first round two years in a row? Petty is a high ceiling prospect: upper 90’s FB, plus SL, avg CH.

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        1. v1 … I broke down a list of the most likely candidates to replace MacPhail/Klentak (at the time I thought that was a slam dunk) on Monday morning. You may not have seen it because it went up shortly before this new thread started. As part of the post, I mentioned Middleton IMO would seek a guy who is less risk averse. We can look at the way Brian Barber (a more recent Middleton hire) handled the draft this summer as evidence of this. Barber took four high risk/high reward players. Whether this approach was a one off (because of a lack of scouting opportunities due to COVID) remains to be seen. If this “focus on tools” approach is their new strategy then Petty or a kid like prep CF Braylon Bishop could be Phillie targets. Bishop’s tools are off the charts. LOVE HIM !

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      3. Hinkie…one Petty scouting report:
        Petty works 95-98 mph with ride and heavy sink — up to 100 mph. Secondaries consist of a wipeout slider in the low 80s, a firm changeup at 90-92 with fade and run. Very high effort delivery, but it’s really ironed itself out this summer. The stuff could get guys out in the big leagues right now. Petty has elite arm speed and arm strength. He comes from a low release slot, allowing the velo to play up. Command isn’t a liability, but it has wavered from time to time, especially as the pitch counts gets up. Will need to show command deep into games to reach potential top ten pick status. Not a tall guy, 6’1″, but could surge before next July.
        ….might a good idea to gamble on at 13…..ranked 18th in this Prospects Live report.

        Like

        1. I’ve been following him since last year. I originally thought he was a second rounder. But he has really taken off. He’s committed to Florida.
          What do you think of Braylon Bishop? Plus wheels. Plus glove. Plus power. Tremendous bat speed. Tremendous bat flip.

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          1. Hinkie…do not know much about him.
            These guys, Prospect Live, however, have him dropped to 76 from 29.
            One of the largest drops in ranking. Not sure entirely why.
            Maybe because he is high school?
            They agree….power bat is there,
            I’d like to see other scouting reports on him and see what gives.

            His report:
            Violent left-handed swing with impressive rotational torque.
            Bishop, 6’1″, 200 lbs, L-L, uses a narrow stance and relies heavily on upper body core strength to turn on the baseball.
            It’s not conventional, but it still produces rare barrel velocity.
            Good runner with strong arm; projects well at any outfield spot.
            May need to dial it back at the plate (he has in recent events) and be more selective if he hopes to reach the hit tool ceiling.
            Good power potential.

            Like

            1. I know he struggled some on the showcase circuit this summer. That’s probably why they dropped him. Maybe he’s available in the second round, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rise in the rankings again by next summer.

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  45. NY and Cleveland. Carrasco cruising along until a misplayed fly ball to CF. Then he had to throw many more pitches under stress. Amazing how the entire complexion of a game can turn on one play.

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  46. Some team stats: Phillies / Marlins / Braves / Dodgers:
    – wRC+: 109 / 95 / 121 / 122
    – OPS: .781 / .703 / .832 / .821
    – Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.08 / 4.31 / 5.51 / 3.29
    – Starting Pitcher FIP: 3.75 / 4.48 / 4.98 / 4.11
    – Relief Pitcher ERA: 7.06 / 5.50 / 3.50 / 2.74
    – Relief Pitcher FIP: 5.56 / 5.65 / 3.91 / 3.45
    – DRS: – 33 / 0 / -8 / 29

    As I look at these stats, my conclusion is:
    1. Our biggest issue is our defense. the gap between our FIP and ERA is massive. Projected over a 162 game season, we would be a negative 89 runs saved and the Dodgers would be a positive 77 runs saved. that is a 166 run difference. To put that in perspective, the average run difference of the 10 playoff teams in 2019 was 159.

    2. Don Mattingly did a great coaching job if you believe that a head baseball coach actually impacts the game results (which I don’t). The Marlins’ stats were materially worse than ours on everything except defense. Even the relief pitching FIP was basically where our relief pitching was.

    3. Obviously our Pen needs to improve. I don’t need to say more about that.

    4. Our hitting is not really close to either the Braves or the Dodgers.

    5. Our starting pitching is pretty good and if we had competent defense would be top 5 in ERA imo.

    What are your takes?

    Like

    1. Defense:…DRS
      Cutch……-8
      Rhys……..-5
      Kingery….-5
      Bohm…….-5
      Knapp…….-4
      Quinn…….-2
      Didi……….-2
      Total…..-31 DRS
      ….not sure what can be done, except hope there is some individual improvement.
      Bohm, Hoskins, Cutch, Knapp and possibly Didi are here again in 2021.
      Kingery and Quinn who knows what happens with them for 2021.

      Like

    2. The defense is obviously the biggest issue, but as they say, the Phillies have nowhere to go but up in that respect.

      I think Cutch’s range will improve once he recovers more during the offseason. I don’t think anybody believes he was 100% healthy this season.

      Haseley, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope that 2020 was an outlier. I don’t know how you can go from 1.3 dWAR to -0.3 dWAR in one year. He’s likely somewhere in between and probably positive.

      Kingery and Bohm, I think they’re better than their defensive rating so I think they will improve there.

      Rhys, Quinn, Knapp: Those guys are probably at their career norms defensively.

      Like

    3. @v1 – I agree with all your points. I mentioned in the past that I agree with that a skipper is one of the most overvalued coaching positions in all sports.

      Despite of not delivering the key wins – Nola and Wheeler is one of the better 1-2 combo in the league. The Phillies just needs depth in the rotation. Getting a Bauer or Clevinger type is ideal but we know that’s not enough prospect equity to trade one and the payroll will be really tight.

      Haseley needs to be better defensively because if he can’t Moniak can be given the chance to see if he’s better. Kingery is used to be a stud defensively, he needs to bounce back at least on the defensive side.

      Bullpen i think is where a GM is needed. Klentak just couldn’t cut it. Klentak plays the bullpen carousel year after year, throw $ to veteran RPs but still cannot construct a solid bullpen crew.

      Like

  47. We need a good platoon partner for Cutch. If there is a DH, he will do that quite a bit. I think Bohm can improve, but that may be wishful thinking. He plays 3B in 2021, however. I was most disappointed in Kingery. I don’t know what went wrong, or if it is simply residuals from Covid, and he gets better. MAybe he isn’t a good hitter, but I can’t understand how is D dropped off. I fully expect the # from LF to improve. A competent defensive LF is another necessity. I am surprised at Knapp’s #, however, I feel he is a good back up C, but in no way an every day Starter. So, no JTR, there has to be another acquisition. I believe Quinn can be taught to play CF much better than he did this season. Bring in The Secretary of Defense for a full ST, and teach him, Moniak and Haseley.

    Like

    1. Suggesting that Garry Maddox come to camp next spring and teach our CFs how to anchor the OF is an indictment of the very system through which they ascended. Does anyone know who oversees the defensive development of the minor league players? Or is he about to be excised with a bunch of the analytics people?

      Like

  48. I watched the games yesterday, The braves are set up for years, Romus saying we are on the brink of a title run, If you watched the teams yesterday, Pitchers coming out of bullpen throwing 96 and above, Good defense, we have two good starters, maybe one good bullpen arm, No defense at third, first, center field, left field, no prospects, and are out of money,

    Like

    1. rocco…..all this negativity is not good for your health.
      You could come down with negaphillitis.
      Very contagion pathogen…wear your mask.

      Like

    2. rocco….how about a little salt on those wounds….today at 2PM….you can see Sixto vs the Cubbies.

      Like

  49. Not to beat a dead horse but saw someone post this on twitter and man it hard to read and telling. “Sixto will start today, he starts a playoff game before Aaron Nola” Sad.

    Like

    2. I agree. That’s probably more painful to Nola who has the chance to pitch in the playoffs if he won one of his last 2 starts.

      But it’s sadder for the Phillies fans that with the payroll and big names the team has, the 2020 Phillies are still in the bottom half of the league. It is not only said but really horrible situation. That’s why I can’t still believe why the ownership is still not making any decisions.

      Like

      1. I keep hearing the reason Middleton is taking so freaking long is because he is meticulous when it comes to these matters. I would replace the word ‘meticulous’ with ‘indecisive’. And painfully so. What’s he trying to figure out….how to break the news to Klentak? How to spin this whole mess by the media? Or how to determine how much more money he’ll have to spend on a legitimate candidate after cutting staff?

        Like

          1. In normal circumstances, the Phillies’ owner would have fired Klentak (and most likely) MacPhail on Monday (a year too late IMO). Middleton seems to find himself in a COVID conundrum. He’s set to layoff a chunk of his workforce because the team lost money this season, and he’s worried about either the financial hit or PR hit the franchise will take if he has to/is willing to pay the current GM to not work.

            It’s not my money, but here’s my opinion. Middleton is worth 3.5 “B”illion dollars. I’m not sure what the Bucks are worth, but I’m sure they’re not hurting. While the franchise took a loss this year, it’s value is still increasing. It’s now worth 2 billion dollars (up 8% from last year). Just bite the bullet. Offer buyouts (which they are doing) to employees. Delay layoffs for six months. Things could be closer to normal by the start of next season. Then do what’s right for baseball operations: fire Klentak and MacPhail. Make an aggressive offer to Erik Neander.
            I don’t see things going well for Middleton (from a team winning % and a PR standpoint) if he brings back Klentak.

            Like

  50. Middleton is supposed to be a fan, like us, but richer, and want to win as much as we do. Didn’t he watch this season? If he did, then his emotions should be anger and embarrassment, just like ours. The whole “argument” is not a debate at all. This was supposed to be the fastest rebuild, remember John? Hardly, and we are in need of significant help. Go find the guy who can do it. That may take being meticulous and doing all your due diligence. Moving on from these 2 should have happened already.

    Like

  51. The bottom line is that the Braves did everything much better than the Phillies and didn’t sacrifice their best prospects to try to artificially shorten the rebuild, as we did. And that’s the difference between a cost-effective perennial contender and a very expensive also-ran.

    Like

    1. The Braves, Padres, and White Sox all ran laps around MacPhail/Klentak in their rebuilds. It’s just an embarrassment to max out your payroll, and be one of only seven NL teams to miss the playoffs.

      Like

      1. Agreed! And we were commenting on that in real time as it was going on (my comment was – why do we always get back 3 B/C level prospects in trades and the Braves always get back at least one A level prospect – these things matter!!!!). This wasn’t just bad luck – it was poor planning and execution in the extreme.

        Like

        1. @catch – most of us agree about Klentak lack of ability to identify legit MLB talent. To me, having a nose for talent is probably the most important skill of a GM.

          I understanding being risk averse but the lack of creativity (considering the Philies have deep pockets) and savvy in trying to take a chance with high ceiling in low minors is disappointing.

          Like

    1. SWFL Frank, we only have to watch Sixto for the next 12 yrs then he will be inducted into the hall of fame

      Like

  53. Just turned on Braves-Reds and Freddy Galvis is at bat. Another ex-Phillie who gets to the playoffs somewhere else.

    Like

    1. If the Phillies QO him and he rejects it……and signs elsewhere.
      For example…Phillies signed Wheeler who was QO by the Mets….Mets got the 52nd pick….and Phillies naturally loss their 2nd round pick plus international money..

      Like

  55. Which is better? Bauer, Didi and a journeyman catcher or JT, Galvis, and Odorizzi? around $40M for each? Maybe six years for JT while 3 for Didi and 1 or 2 for Bauer at a high rate. Need to add relief pitching in either option.

    Like

    1. What are the odds that Stott, after missing v this season, might be able to be the starter in 2022? If so, do you not sign Didi since he’ll want a 3 year deal? I wouldn’t count on Stott that soon but that’s me. Fido’s defense was ok but it wasn’t great. Galvis would be better but quite a drop off offensively. I don’t think we could pass on Didi AND JT. We need at least one of them. If we sign JT, do we pass on Didi?

      Like

      1. Murray, there’s no way I make major personnel decisions based on a guy who has not even played A ball.

        Like

    2. The ‘Walter Alston’ of MLB pitching….Trevor Bauer…zany and odd but that is him.
      …he will only take one year contracts….so better be prepared to go $30M plus, probably more like $35M.

      IMO, he probably can only be signed if JTR leaves,..together they are close to and around $60M…does not leave much wiggle room for the other needed holes.
      Tight squeeze, unless Middleton goes above the threshold.

      Like

      1. I don’t care how good Trevor Bauer was this year, under no circumstances would I want that cancer in the Phillies clubhouse.

        Like

        2. I will go back to something Fred Shero said when asked if he would take Derrick Sanderson (a known head case) on the Flyers. He said yes. He was asked why. Shero said he would take talent over non-talent, and relished the opportunity to get that talent to produce. I think Joe Girardi has enough of a handle on that locker room that he can keep Trevor Bauer on the right road for a year

          Like

  56. I was watching the Braves/ Reds game and saw quite a performance from Ian Anderson, picked third overall in 2016. I am not going to rehash a much debated draft among people on this site. I mention Anderson because that is what really hurts the Phillies, just not being able to develop high school arms like the Braves and Dodgers and Astros.

    Like

    1. Perhaps they will be able with Abel.
      Gowdy just ran into arm issues..maybe he is still there next season..
      Pipkin is still in the mix, along with Lindow and Falter.
      Fanti looks to be fading, and Young is still hanging tough.
      Overall, keep all your finger’s crossed.

      Like

    2. This is where I’m disappointed with Johnny A. who seems to prefer good batters over power arms. Johnny A. is also allergic with powers with lack of control, thus, tend to focus on soft tossers who controls the strike zone. This is reflective of the farm since the farm is littered with a lot of back end soft tossing SPs. But I’m glad that this philosophy changed in the last couple of years where the Phillies start to draft power arms and plan to harness and develop the pitchers ability to command their pitches. I think this is the better way to develop top end SPs.

      Like

  57. Unfortunately, a player who could be most affected by the lockdown and cancelling of the minor league season would be Kevin Gowdy, who already lost about 18 months with his injury, and now a whole year of development.

    Like

  58. Things do look bleak for many employees in the Phillies organization.

    “With no fans coming through the ticket gates at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies have lost more than $145 million this year. Managing partner John Middleton and the Buck Family infused $100 million of their own money earlier this year to keep the organization afloat amid the public health crisis”…PAT RALPH
    PhillyVoice Staff..pat@phillyvoice.com

    Like

  59. Mets could lose upwards of $200M…Cohen may have to dip into his personal piggy bank to get JTR.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-30/mets-sale-to-steve-cohen-excuses-a-decade-of-wilpon-errors

    “Today, the Mets’s finances are as precarious as they have ever been. The team is likely to lose $200 million — yes, $200 million — on the 2020 season. It has dipped heavily into a $250 million revolving loan from JPMorgan Chase. And the team owes $45 million in Citi Field bond payments. You would think that when a seller of an asset is in such dire straits, potential buyers would try to pick it up on the cheap. But that’s not happening. Cohen’s winning bid is reported to be an astonishing $2.45 billion — which, if MLB approves the sale, would be the largest amount ever paid for a sports franchise in the U.S. And that doesn’t include SNY, which Wilpon has kept out of the sale.”

    Like

  60. Lindor is in his walk year in 2021 and it seems likely Cleveland puts him up for sale. Let’s say Bohm is off the table. A package might be…

    Howard, Stott, Haseley and Rhys.

    You are going to have to throw a ton of money and years at him to sign an extension but he is 26.

    You do it?

    Like

    1. Wow…that’s something to chew on. I would drive Haseley and Hoskins to the airport, we assume Howard is a work in progress, and who knows what Stott might become. It’s definitely not a deal Klentak would do, especially the extension part. But he probably won’t be here anyway. So it really depends on whether the new Pres of Baseball Ops/GM is a wheeler dealer, risk wise. So I’ll say yes to that trade, but the chances of a deal like that coming together with other teams having more to offer is slim to none.

      Like

      2. (6 years of) Stott, (5+ years of) Howard, (5 years of) Haseley, and (3 years of) Hoskins is a big time overpay for one year of Francisco Lindor. Klentak has not been good, but even that is a step too far for this GM.

        Look what the LAD’s gave up for Mookie Betts. Not even close to comparable.

        If Middleton wants Lindor, why not hold onto the 4 four young players you listed, wait a year, and bid on him as a FA.

        Like

        1. The deal would be contingent upon an extension. Yes, waiting a year is reasonable but the urgency and window to win now isn’t getting greater or larger, respectively. In any case, it won’t happen.

          Like

            1. … just a note … Mookie Betts agreed to his LTC with the LAD’s four months after that trade was made.

              Like

          2. You can’t make a player sign an extension. I’m sure Lindor wants free agent money. That would be a tough requirement. After not getting JT extended, I don’t see them taking that same risk.

            Like

        2. Hinkie…..lean your way on this…..as mentioned before….the good teams do not trade their top prospects. Howard and Stott could be impact players for a long time.

          Indians, IMO, waited one year too long to deal Lindor. And entering his age27 season, he will need to rebound from a sub-par season for him….even rocco’s Cesar had a better bWAR this shortened season than Lindor.

          Like

        3. I just looked at the Betts trade. The Dodgers gave up two real prospects/young players (Connor Wong is just a throw in). Alex Verdugo is more valuable than even Hoskins because of two extra years of team control. Jeter Downs is about the equal of Stott. Even if you want to say Haseley + Hoskins = Verdugo, You’ve still overpaid by Spencer Howard. On top of all this … it made more sense for the Dodgers to overpay because they have been really, really close to winning the WS for a few years in a row. The Phillies … not so much.

          Like

    2. No – it’s a disaster. This team is mediocre because it has no inexpensive depth – trades like this will keep us bad or mediocre long into the 2020s. Why does nobody seem to see this?

      Like

      1. I see it. Others see it. Question is how to fix it? How do you simply add “inexpensive depth”? Easy to say. Hard to do unless you have already built up a good farm system.

        Like

        1. Agreed, but one way you don’t do it is by trading potentially good (and perhaps even great) and inexpensive young players for guys who are going to be massively expensive and who you could sign in free agency. It’s a massive misuse of resources unless you’re an absolutely loaded team (both at the big league and minor league level) like the Dodgers and you just need an extra piece or two. For the Phillies, it would just ensure their fate as the Angels of the National League. No thanks.

          Like

          1. herein lies the issue. We drafted ahead of the Dodgers every year from 2015 onward. Yet we do not have the organizational depth to be able to go after an elite, 26 yo Shortstop.

            Like

            1. Nor do we have the type of balanced payroll that would easily accommodate a long-term deal with Lindor. This team is built fairly badly and more for the short term. Unfortunately, they are also not good enough for the short-term. To sum it up, thus far, the rebuild has failed and it’s not clear that better days are ahead.

              Like

  61. But, that is a loss of revenue. The largest costs are the team payroll. So, a $207M payroll costs about a third of that. Meanwhile, the team is now worth $2Billion. In 2019, the team’s revenue was $392Million. I don’t know what the income is this year. Certainly it was much less. But, it is not really “losing” money. The team didn’t need $392Million to run the team this year. Meanwhile, the team gained 8% in value. That’s about $160Million. So, there is no need to hold any bake sales. The Mets are owned by one of the worst ownership’s in sports. An ownership that lost, really lost, a ton of money because they relied on Bernie Madoff. So, they have been operating from a Chase loan, which was set up knowing the team was being sold, and Chase gets their money back. I feel bad for everyday folks who have been genuinely hurt by this pandemic. No sympathy here for John Middleton. Owners are setting the stage for spending less this off season. That won’t be universal. Top talent will continue to get paid. The Dodgers didn’t hesitate to sign Mookie during the pandemic, while “losing” money. Smart teams will add talent this off season.

    Like

    1. You’re mixing and matching financial issues here.

      Nobody is saying that the Phillies aren’t a valuable team. Of course they are. And nobody feels particularly badly for the owners.

      Still, when their expenses greatly outstrip their revenues, they ARE losing money and, but all accounts, they are losing a hell of a lot of money. Say what you like about this, but no ownership group ever likes to lose that kind of money, which is why they will be laying off staff and likely going easy on free agent contracts and I expect this to occur fairly broadly across the industry this year.

      Like

      1. catch, the league recently signed a $3.7Billion dollar deal with Turner. I am not saying they didn’t make less revenue. I am saying their expenses are much less than in a normal year, so I question the financial picture painted by the Owners. And, if there is any real loss, they will have ample ability to recoup it, whether it takes a year or two to do so. And, I believe certain teams will have a ready made excuse to sit out FA, but the smart teams will not. And, I used the Dodgers as an example of how Mookie was signed, long term, to a huge deal, during the pandemic. Why didn’t the Dodgers use the pandemic as an excuse and not sign him? Because they are a smartly run team, trying to win a WS, and then win another. What are we?

        Like

        1. Listen, you keep trying to get me to agree that they are cheap. But they aren’t – not by any reasonable comparison.

          They have not been good at drafting players. They have not been especially good at trading for players. They are not good at developing players. They are not good at finding talent in the international markets. They apparently have not been able to use modern metrics in ways that translate to wins or player development.

          They are not good at a lot of things, but spending money isn’t really one of those things. They are among the top organizations in terms of spending money. So let’s skewer them for what they are really doing wrong.

          Like

          1. you misunderstand me, catch. I am not saying they are cheap at all. I don’t believe that they are. I am saying that they have been poorly managed. I am saying that the pandemic financial consequences should not affect how this team goes about it’s business. So, I don’t want to convince you, or anyone else, that they are cheap. I don’t believe it. I want them to use their financial strength, which I believe they still possess, to make this team into a real contender. I am saying that any financial excuses are not real, just excuses. I believe that the only way out of this mess is to spend money. If they do not, that is not because they are cheap, but dumb. A real good team, in this town, will return any expenditures twofold. So, not spending what is necessary to add to the team is bad business. Not cheap

            Like

            1. I am glad you agree they are not cheap, but I still disagree with you on the fix.

              Would spending above the cap limit help them? Yeah, sure it would, at least in the short run. But would it solve the problems? No, it wouldn’t. Their problems need to be solved by better personnel and management systems. It’s not a money problem. It’s a people problem. They don’t have the right people in places do succeed and until they do, they will keep chasing their tail mired in mediocrity, in my humble opinion.

              Like

  62. Signing JTR and Didi probably still only make Phil’s the 4th best team in the division. Marlins have proven they’re better and full strength Nationals better than full strength Phils.

    Time to reload around Bohm wheeler Howard….much funner watching young team develop together than trying to throw a dream team together.

    One year of 1993 Phil’s vs 2006 to 2011
    Phils. I also remember 76 to 81 Phils.

    Like

    1. It’s a minor league site so we all wish a group of our minor leaguers would be the next home grown playoff team. Unfortunately I don’t think we have prospects that will become stars, beyond Bohm and maybe Howard. Haseley and Moniak don’t project as starters let alone stars. Stott, Morales, Abel and maybe Miller have at least a chance but the lost year hurts.

      Like

  63. Our lack of both top talent and depth from our farm system is our biggest issue. I would not even consider overpaying in prospects for one year of any player. We have too many holes in s/t and arguably more concerns for l/t.
    Btw, I have confidence in Barber and Bonifay. I like last couple drafts and hope they will make the farm strong and deep over time. I’m for investing more here given baseball is the most team-centric sport.

    Like

  64. Minors SP lost a year Covi-19. I agree with Romus, SP are there but wee need someone to come in a refine their Development Program. Llovera, Medina, Falter, Pipkin, Jones, Parkinson to name a few along with younger arms Evanko, Kilgore, McArthur, Miller, Lindow, Gowdy. Bring in Past Successful SP TO REFINE THESE ARMS. Polish them.
    Watching Fried, Anderson and the way White Sox, going younger should awaken the Front office. Our minor SP competed right along with those that played today.

    BRING IN SOME PAST TALENT. LIKE THEY SAY “THOSE WHO CAN CAN AND THOSE WHO CAN’T TEACH

    Like

  65. Harvey – Your quote from George Bernard Shaw’s play, Man and Superman

    “Don’t listen to her Bob. Remember those who can, do; those who can’t, teach.”

    morphed into a phrase used to denigrate educators. (Its original meaning is far more subtle.) But think about a central thread in many of the comments on this board, including your own, related to player development. Isn’t player development about teaching?

    Like

  66. Here are some pitching stats I pulled from Fan Graphs

    Team / ERA / xFIP / BABIP (against)
    ATL / 4.46 / 4.63 / .294
    FL / 4.86 / 4.90 / .297
    PHL / 5.20 / 4.00 / .343
    NY / 5.01 / 4.33 / .316
    WA / 5.09 / 4.80 / .317

    The Phillies stand out in the difference between ERA (highest) versus xFIP (lowest). They also stand out with a .343 BABIP against. While you can point to poor fielding and a lack of a player’s range as the explanatory factor, I wonder if that is really the whole story. I wonder how much can be explained by poor player positioning, which would be an indictment of the analytics department. But … if you look at those stats (Phillies only) for the previous two years you get

    2020 / 5.20 / 4.00 / .343
    2019 / 4.53 / 4.55 / .298
    2018 / 4.15 / 3.87 / .303

    So was 2020 an anomaly due to a 60 game season?

    Like

    1. spinRate…signal out the BP metrics and therein lies the difference.
      Phillies pen was used quite a bit less than the others….but came up short more than the others.

      BP…NL-East
      …………….ERA
      Braves….3.50…..4.40xFIP…..273IP,,.SV13
      Mets……..4.60…..4.69xFIP…..235IP,,,SV11
      Nats………4.68…..4.87xFIP….206IP…SV12
      Marlins…..5.50…..5.39xFIP….230IP…SV18
      Phillies……7.06…..4.61xFIP…186IP…SV11

      Like

    2. Oh when you incorporate the BABIP.
      The Phillies BP had the highest @ .376
      ..all the rest under the proverbial MLB average of.300
      ..Braves .292
      ..Mets.. ..291
      ..Nat …….299
      ..Marlins..293
      ..probably a combination of a shoddy defense and less than effective arms.

      Like

    3. When looking at BABIP, you have to take into account, Hard Hit %, LD %, barrel % and Exit Velo

      The Phillies Relievers had:
      – 3rd worst line drive rate in baseball at 24%
      – the worst hard hit rate at 41.7%
      – the most barreled baseballs at 10.1%
      – the 5th worst average exit velo at 89.3

      their high babip was because they stink.

      https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=24&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=4,d

      Like

      1. The bullpen’s BABIP was .376

        Nola’s was .283
        Wheeler .306
        Vinny’s .378

        so generally good pitchers with good stuff have a lower babip because it is harder to barrel the baseball against them.

        Like

        1. Yeah…that was what I meant by ‘less than effective arms’…just trying to be more forgiving then saying they stink or suck.
          When they give up more HR/9….>2…..most in modem day history by a relief corps, have to assume there was some squaring up or barreling going on.

          Like

  67. Nola is young enough and cheap enough to bring a haul from competitive team with good farm system. That’s a start to a quicker turn around. Need a bold GM to make sharp moves

    Like

    1. I would suggest that you play the Phillies GM and propose a trade for Aaron Nola. We’ll tell you if the trade is fair or not. Then you can follow those players for the next 1-2 years and tell us how it goes. If it works out, you can pat yourself on the back. If it doesn’t, then you’ll realize how often prospects fail.

      Like

  68. The stats are all well and good, but the HRs that were allowed by the BP, especially after the trade deadline, had nothing to do with fielding, positioning, or bad luck. They were the result of terrible pitching.

    Like

    1. Yes …..those less than effective BP arms gave up the highest HR/9 in the majors…>2…with the fewest IP in the majors
      Braves , otoh, 5th in the majors @ only 0.99 HR/9 with the 2nd most IP in the majors . 2nd to the Red Sox.

      Like

  69. I’m afraid the only way this current construction of the Phillies can win is to catch lightning in a bottle like the ’93 squad. There’s nothing sustainable about this organization. No recognizable ability to either identify or develop talent. Recent hires within the ranks may pan out over time – Barber and Girardi from NYY, Bonifay from Houston – but the glue for adhering together the quality pieces the Phillies do have, both on and off the field, isn’t so available. John Middleton will have to draw discriminately from better organizations to build one here. LAD, Atlanta, St Louis, Oakland and Tampa would be my other targets to scour…any team which is perennially relevant and competitive. Maybe it’s just the water in the office coolers, but there’s something they’re doing right.

    Like

    1. Was fortunate to attend Dodgers prospect workout in this area 3 years ago with someone. Over 10” mid Atlantic kids. Friedman and all bigwigs including nerdy money ball computer guy (not kidding). Speed measurement on bat knobs pic of everyone measured hand flexibility the full gamut. Pitchers kept showing up even if kid obviously wasn’t good enough staff would go up to kid and give him tip on curve or something complete class act organization. Think Phil’s do this? Was at another northeast team tryout nothing close to professional act of dodgers

      Like

    2. I believe the first thing this team has to do is get a solid three, Then make a decision on Hopkins or Bohn at first, I Then look for two bullpen arms, to me as much as i like realmuto, overpaying isnt going to make us better, Didi if he takes a one year deal i do it other wise, i go the Galvis root, for a year if possible and hope stott is ready, all these moves imo cant be trusted to klentak,

      Like

  70. Sorry one other thing, i dont want to say bad things about Howard, but what i saw from him wasnt near what, was told to us, he wasnt that high velo guy with knee bending stuff, I watched him three times, i really believe something is wrong, he changes his motion when he throws breaking balls, almost like a sling shot throw, he has to have shoulder problem, its my opiion but from what i saw i really believe he is hiding his injury,

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    1. rocco…..Philies came out and said his shoulder had no structural issues.
      I would think the Phillies have given him the proper instructions on what therapy/exercise program he needs to accomplish this off-season.
      Maybe it needs to be strengthened….just hope it does not become a labrum issue down the road..

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      1. Romus watch him throw a breaking ball, he used a different motion the games i saw this year, Not like the tape of him in the minors that were posted, maybe its my imagination, but i still think something is wrong i still think a third starter is my first priority for this team,

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        1. rocco… he will have 5 months to work on his shoulder, so will have to see how things are come March.
          And yes…Arrieta’s spot has to be filled in the rotation. I would think it will be decided before the holidays with a FA signing…perhaps a LHP.

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  71. I also agree catch, “it is not a money problem, a people problem.” But, I don’t want another try at a rebuild, unless, at the same time, they are spending the money necessary to compete now. And, what we had this year, despite falling 1 game short of the Playoffs when 8 teams made it, is not competing. So, any President/GM combo that we bring in is not adding what we need without going over that first level. I am happy to hear any blueprint that says otherwise.

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  72. Amazing! With an 85 million dollar payroll Derek Jeter did a great job building the Marlins. No really big stars, just a lot of chemistry, good pitching, and guys who are gamers.

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    1. And in the words of the losing manager David Ross, “that team believes in one another and play as a unit…” “whatever it took to win they did it patiently..” Note also that their 2 key relievers were retreads, Boxberger and Kintzler – and they were both main reasons this team was successful. I have to say I think they can challenge the Braves with their pitching and “no-name” players in the field.

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  74. Lost 105 games last year. Klentak had 5 years. We still are not good. Our farm system is bottom third. Yet, the Owner is still undecided whether or not his Front Office has done a good job. Here is a hint, they have done an awful job, John! Show them the door.

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    1. I hope tomorrow at noon would be considered as not competing with playoff action since the wild card round will be over. A Saturday presser would certainly be unorthodox but how long are we supposed to wait? Talk about the new math…I don’t think Middleton is any better at figuring this out than I was at trigonometry.

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  75. Informal survey – considering the NYM are due to lose $200M this year, who does their new owner go after more aggressively?

    RHP Trevor Bauer (to fill a more urgent need)
    or
    C JT Realmuto (to steal a division rival’s best player)

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  76. Padres in a do-or-die game, up against one of the top young SPs in the game, threw a ‘bullpen game’. And 9 pitchers combined for a series-clinching SHUTOUT!

    Two of the pitchers were 2 of their top 3 pitching prospects. Morejon 21, Patino 20, both signed as part of Padres huge 2016 international spending spree!

    The offensive heroes of the game (and series) included Tatis 21 (contender for ‘19 ROY and ‘20 MVP) and Cronenworth 26 (contender for ‘20 ROY).

    The Padres are balanced. And much of their success is homegrown or through wise/lucky trades.

    We’ve all cried for the Phillies to splurge one year in international signings. It’s not a guarantee success (see Yankees 2014) but it can be (see Padres 2016)!

    When you have a strong prospects & deep system you will likely succeed and you can trade from that strength if necessary to augment (Dodgers trade for Betts, Braves trades at 2019 deadline for 3 ex-closer RPs, or Padres getting Clevinger, Rosenthal, etc this year).

    When you do NOT have the depth you need you can make foolish trades out of desperation. The Padres have Tatis because the White Sox were desperate and acted carelessly in 2016.
    CHW GM Rick Hahn: “That was a move, in going out to get James [Shields], that was due to the lack of depth in the organization. We did not have internal answers when (John) Danks wasn’t getting back to a form that was serviceable and (Mat) Latos was taking on water and regressing. So we had to do something to stem the flow here. And that’s very fair to say that transaction is sort of emblematic of that past way of doing things and trying to fix it on the fly.”

    Trading young upside prospects now for one player, as if that’s all we need, is just unwise.

    Again, I’ll note I liked the last few drafts and I believe in Barber and Bonifay. I think we may be on our way finally. But that means don’t blockbuster for ‘21.

    I’d rather suffer another poor year in 2021 to see us stronger for 2022 and beyond, than go all-in for one year. Thus I’m good with not signing JTR. (Sixto is sunk cost.). Let’s take the extra draft pick at end 2nd rd) and add another year of upside talents to the pool. Use the $ on Didi, a Lefty SP, and couple hard throwers for bp.

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  77. Doing a rebuild while trying to continue to be a .500 team means it is not a rebuild and will take much longer. Last 5-8 years abject failure by whole organization. Only way to correct is jettison mid aged valuable assets and start anew with better FO

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  78. I remember Back in 1988 when Romus coached my little league team, He told us of a bad trade the phillies made, They traded a guy named Ferguson Jenkins for two stiffs, Is Sixto the next Jenkins, ?

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  79. Rocco, Bob Buhl and Larry Jackson fall far short of JTR. We made another stupid trade when Bill Giles was mad at Larry Bowa and traded him, and BTW, a throw-in named Ryne Sandberg! John K., I agree with most of what you said. The Padres GM hardly lacks for guts. He hasn’t taken the safe, risk adverse approach. But, I still want Realmuto. I don’t want to create another hole at C, and I don’t see where having a poor year again next year sets us up for 2022. I don’t think we have a player that comes close to a Tatis or Acuna coming up.

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    1. Yeah but we got Ivan DeJesus, who ws in his mid 40’s but were told was much younger. They wanted Ramon Aviles but we talked the Cubs into taking Sandberg.

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    2. matt13….if you believe that other teams have better international scouting depts than the Phillies…than a team like the White Sox, who seem to have been getting some decent Latin players of late, then there may be a gleam of hope.

      Miguel Tejada, Jr, who signed with the Sox and then got busted for a common PED, Stanozolol, back in 2018. and he has plenty of raw talent, however Sox let him go from their contract. After a few months in limbo, the yuong man signed with the Phillies in March 2019, and as a 17-year old in the DSL in 2019, he struggled….but he does have plenty of raw tools, and I think he may have something to prove.

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  80. Romus, I don’t pretend to know scouting, but I do see results around the league, and how some teams have done very well in the International market. Is our problem a lack of talent evaluation ability? Or, a failure to concentrate on certain areas? Or, poor allocation of funds? I don’t know. There are some high level players who got paid a lot of money, and some that didn’t, but are still really good. So, it is not just outbidding other teams. Does anyone even know why we have not been successful? That is not a sarcastic question. I don’t believe it is all luck.

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    1. matt13…hard to pinpoint.
      Take for example..Tatis, Acuna, Albies Soto and even Sixto…non were top ten in their signing class (Soto and Tatis were low 20s)….then guys like Kevin Maitan, and Phillies’ Ortiz, plus others, were top ten guys who do not develop as fast or at all..
      There seems to be that combination of skilled scouting and luck…who knows the percent of each.

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      1. It just seems that if the Phillies do hit in the J2 market, it’s more luck than scouting. They were very lucky with getting Carlos Ruiz and fell into Sixto Sanchez by accident, as he was only an afterthought when the Phillies went to scout a “highly” rated prospect. But it seems that when they spend time actually scouting is where they run into issues. Jailyn Ortiz was a high value target, and his last full year in Clearwater was a poor one by any metric used. He must have had a K rate of about 35% and showed none of the plate discipline that he exhibited earlier.

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    2. I think part of the LA player problem is that certain teams – due to historic relations with Cuban baseball have a tendency to get Cuban players no matter the money. For example, without being a “big market team” why is it that Cincy and White Sox somehow end up with premier Cuban players – and its not always the most money. All of us would have welcomed a chance to bid on Abreu the Sox 1B and their wonder player in centerfield ; also, how is it that Cincy has gotten key players such as Aroldis Chapman ? Apparently the Phillies never cultivated this connection.

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      1. RU…Ruben Amaro did try to establish some type of a Cuban connection….MAG, the tall RHP from Cuba, just did not work out. Then they just kind of backed off. The irony of it…Amaro has some Cuban ancestry is his blood.

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  81. I’m sure somebody commented here, but the Marlins have never lost a post season series.
    Now I’m not going to go on to say they way they build teams (which has not worked for the sixers) is what the Phils should do. They have been brutal fir their fans since 2004, but since they have blown past the Phils and the Phils have been poor in player development in the last decade plus… Not to mention the whole Sixto Realmuto seeming tragedy… I just think the Phils need another Operations overhaul. Just don’t know how you get it right without starting with mcfail

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  82. Before we begin anointing Sixto Sanchez a future Hall of Famer, let’s wait until he circulates around the league once or twice.

    As for Realmuto, he hasn’t signed with anyone else yet. Many here have resigned themselves to a foregone conclusion that the Phillies won’t (or shouldn’t) re-sign him. We have no idea how the market will play out for his services.

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    1. Ya I’m not anointing Sixto, however the next few weeks will go further towards that than Realmuto being a hall of famer.

      What I am saying is along with the Phillies doing a poor job a player development over the past decade plus, Sixto would fill out the Phils rotation next year for how much? It remains to be seen how Realmuto will help the Phils next year for how much?

      Just think based on Phils player development, if there is not an educated overhaul we will continue in the spin cycle

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  83. You almost wonder if best approach is get a new front office, take a step back in 2021, get draft picks for didi and jt, play Kingsley and hassley everyday to give them one final look, add to the starting and bullpen without giving up draft picks and regroup for 2022 with a lot of money to spend and maybe more young talent ready to help.

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    1. Translation – MacPhail stays, continues to get paid to do nothing, and will likely play a role in picking the new GM. But this is better than nothing.

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      1. Another failure of leadership on John Middleton’s part. He’s like that rich dad that doesn’t spend time with his kids, can’t give them the love and nurturing they need, but once or twice a year breaks out his checkbook to buy them expensive gifts to buy their love. As the kids get older, they start to realize what’s going on and they start to see that it’s not enough.

        John Middleton bought us Bryce Harper but can someone tell me what else he’s done? By the way, I LOVE Bryce Harper and think he’s had two good years, and will have many more, but having said that, the decision to sign him is a long way from safely being placed on a “Best Moves” or “Worst Moves” list

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  85. Matt Klentak steps down as GM, and he will be reassigned to another position in the organization. Someone please explain this to me. He was not let go, MacPhail is still there, and Ned Rice is acting GM until a successor is named. How do they get a good guy to come in without naming him Team President? And, does stepping down somehow save the team money? When does John Middleton come out and speak and apologize for screwing up this rebuild?

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    2. matt13….Matt K may help Ned Rice in the JTR negotiations.
      There is only 5 more weeks before JTR is free and clear to shop around.

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    3. I didn’t read that Klentak will be reassigned to another position in the organization. If true, that’s just Middleton’s way of sidestepping the laying off a chunk of your workforce, while paying Klentak to not work.
      If Klentak goes, and MacPhail stays as President of Baseball Operations, color me me disappointed. This probably eliminates Erik Neander (the best guy Middleton could hire) from consideration. Tim Neahring is still an option (and maybe the front runner). Also shouldn’t count out Jeff Luhnow. Let’s pray Andy has no say in this decision.

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      2. Bingo – Hinkie — he can’t possibly fire K and then go out and hire other people while paying K —– bad form. Very bad form – most importantly while they may fire a whole host of other people. It just doesn’t work that way….

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    1. I suppose the two biggest whiffs KLaw is referring to are Cornelius R. in 2015 @10 and perhaps Mickey so far in 2016….then there is JPC in 2013 @13, who really did not pan out with the Phillies.
      Nola in 2014 is not.
      I do not see Haseley as a whiff, but still alive on a foul tip, after 334 MLB PAs.
      Bohm for sure is not, and Stott and Abel are two soon.

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        1. I have to say this much….you are man who will admit a mistake and own up…which is admirable. Perhaps next season that will occur.

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  87. MacPhail remains President and will be involved in next GM search, says Middleton.

    FAIL!!!!

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      1. Denny…….the hiring process of interviewing and deciding, especially by JM as the final approval authority, will take a week or weeks…..time is of the essence when it comes to JTR’s free agency.
        Five days after the last out of the WS he is free to roam….and Cohen and the Mets could jump on him right away.
        I hope he told JM that he will let him have last opportunity to match any offer he gets before deciding.
        Klentak could help Rice or the new guy, when it comes to the transition and the negotiations.

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  89. I listened to the zoom conference. Hinkie, for sure Klentak is going to work for the team. Middleton stressed his high character. What I found interesting is MacPhail has only 1 year left. Middleton said they have been discussing, for some time, what the structure would look like after. I believe, and I don’t think I am just engaging in wishful thinking, that MacPhail steps aside, Consults for the rest of his year, when they name a new Team President.

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    1. matt13….MacPhail is retiring I assume …after all he will be nearing 70 after next season. Do not think he wants to keep doing this full time.

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      1. If we need Klentak to help select new management or transition then new management is not worth it. need someone that will hit the road running not new blood

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        1. Clean house out?
          It took Middleton almost week to make this decision…how long do you think it would take him to hire a new President and then a new GM…..and then begin negotiations with JTR!
          JTR and his agent are not going to wait around that long.
          Unless Middleton decides he will do all the negotiations.

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      2. Come on Romus your still working and your older than him, But i just dont get how in the world Middleton can keep him, so dumb

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  91. If imo They keep Mc Phail. it proves to me Middleton just doesnt get how to win, how can he keep him, he has done nothing , to deserve to keep his job,

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  92. I am a long time Phillies fan (cried as a boy when Ashburn was traded) and a frequent reader on this site. However, I rarely contribute as I don’t know enough about the system to do so intelligently.

    I believe the Phillies organization is broken top to bottom. Klentak and Amaro before him were in over their heads for opposite reasons, too much emphasis on analytics (K) and near total disregard for them (A). But I believe they are symptoms rather than the cause. There is no consistent organizational philosophy.

    Amateur scouting, domestic and international, and player development are below par: sad for a team that has the resources to do much better. Nola and Bohm appear to be successes, but questions remain about both. Is Nola really a TOR starter? I have been disappointed several times when he came up short in big games. Bohm has to prove it over a longer period for me to be convinced. Otherwise, Hoskins is a one-d player who is streaky at that. His one plus tool is power. I don’t think his hit tool is average although I guess you can argue his OBP makes up for that. Take a bat out of his hands and he’s a below average MLB player IMO. Kingery? Haseley? Best LA player in last few years is Seranthony.

    Two golden eras in my life were built on strong systems top to bottom: Paul Owens built the mid 70s to early 80s team and Wade built a strong farm system in the early 2000s but struggled with how to fill out a ML roster. He handed off to Gillick who was a master at putting in the right pieces at the bottom third of the roster!

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    2. ml….you hailed it on their amateur scouting, especially international.
      For some reason they get more lucky results than skilled when it comes to that.
      And unfortunately their luck is minimal.
      From 2002 to 2011 they scrimped with a low end budget in that area…then they decided to invest more $$$$ starting in 2011….but they picked the wrong kids to invest in…..Pujols, Encarnacion, Gamboa, Braylon Gonzalez, MAG et al
      A result of poor scouting evaluation.
      Maybe they will get the right guys in there now.

      .

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      1. ML and Rom, right on, could not have said it better.
        ML my Phils days started with Richie Allen parking them deep and Rick Wise coming up. Getting Carlton was glorious and start of the long climb in the 70’s

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  93. Middleton making the exact argument that I have been making. You don’t trade Sixto unless you sign the extension at same time.

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    1. And for those who argued that we needed, JTR to get Harper, I have been arguing against that too. And Middleton just stated the same.

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      1. Agree with Middleton on that. Bryce Harper (like almost every guy who reaches free agency for the first time) was going to sign with the team who was willing to pay him the most money.

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    3. This doesn’t make any sense sounds more of an excuse on the part of Middleton. If this is true, Middleton should have fired Klentak last year not only for the poor performance but also for letting JTR enter his last year without a contract extension.

      Regardless of how MIddleton spin some of the failures around – he can only blame himself for hiring of McPhail who most already expect to hire Klentak as his GM.

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      1. Agreed on that. I am not absolving Middleton. Just saying that he made the exact same point as I have been making. You can’t trade Sixto for 2 years of JTR. If you can’t sign him immediately after trade, then you don’t make that trade.

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  96. The only right answers here for Middleton are:

    1) Andy and Matt: You’re Fired!

    2) Go hire the #1 guy to lead Baseball Ops, cost is no object. It’s a drop in the bucket for your total cost profile. Give him total control.

    3) Go immediately fire your 5 worst scouts and hire the 10 best that were laid off this year.

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  97. I had to read the article again where John Middleton talks about the failure to evaluate, draft, and develop talent. After how many years as part owner of this team does it finally dawn on him that the Phillies are terrible at this? Does he still think that Anthony Hewitt and Larry Greene will become quality major leaguers tomorrow? I don’t understand how you can preside over an organization and not have a plan in place to address deficiencies as soon as they arise. Wow! This is a master class in CYA.

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    1. Hewitt and Greene were both drafted under a different GM and different scouting head. He made a change since they were drafted. Klentak’s first draft pick was Moniak although Almaraz drafted Randolph a year earlier. Both were disasters relative to whole they could have taken.

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      1. Klentak certainly was hurt by Almaraz’s disastrous draft philosophy – one that almost all of us here knew was doomed to failure. In an era where teams, rightfully, are focused on velocity for pitchers and power for hitters, throw-back Johnny focused on hit tool for hitters and control for pitchers.

        These poor philosophies gave us the Randolph pick, which was indefensible from the moment it was made. Randolph was a player with limited physical skills and projection. He was a future left fielder from the moment he was drafted and did not project to have a lot of power. He had one apparent tool – the hit tool. All of this meant that unless he turned out to be the next Tony Gwynne (I don’t have to tell you have crazy unlikely that would be), his ceiling was as a 2-3 WAR player. You don’t waste 1/10 picks with a 2-3 WAR ceiling player. Crazy bad drafting.

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        1. By the way, I have liked our more recent drafts. Even before Johnny was gone it was clear they had moved on from his way of drafting players. Although he technically wasn’t fired, does anyone believe that? Of course he was fired or moved out of that job.

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      2. They may have been drafted under different scouting regimes, but the common denominator is still John Middleton as part owner. He stated that the Phillies always evaluated, drafted, and developed players poorly, but as part owner, those two players I mentioned were drafted under his watch.

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  98. Scouts especially some of the older ones try to convince their bosses to select guys they have been following but often their bosses eschew advice and look at peripherals Asia Sonn like to refer to them

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  100. It’s not my money … but … if I was worth 3.5B dollars and I owned the Phillies, and I really wanted my “FU@#ING TROPHY BACK”, I would zig while the rest of MLB zagged. In other words … ignore the COVID losses, and budget/spend money as I normally would. The team carried a 208 million dollar payroll in 2020, spend the same money on player salaries in 2021. MacPhail and Klentak have Middleton’s club in a straight jacket: .500 team/bloated payroll/bottom third farm system. Catching teams like the Braves, Dodgers, and Padres is going to be a tall mountain to climb. Spending money while everyone else is scaling back may be the only way to make up groung on Atlanta.

    Another thing … Making an eye popping offer to Erik Neander to become the Phillies President of Baseball Operations (sorry, Andy), could help Middleton save lots of money going forward. Nobody has Neander’s track record of doing more with less (financial resources).

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  101. The lynch pin in this whole scenario is MacPhail’s impending retirement after 2021. Middleton appears to be yielding (rightfully) to the pressure to remove Klentak without sweeping clean the entire front office. Ned Rice gets credit for his presentation skills in pursuit of Bryce Harper, and one would reasonably assume that for JT Realmuto when the time comes (which already came but that’s another matter.) It’s like the continuity in a transition from the current regime to the next President of Baseball Operations is very important to the managing partner. Sounds disjointed to me. Hopefully the plan will become more coherent to us sooner than later.

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  102. I agree with KuKo. Why keep Klentak for this year if he failed to sign JTR when he said they should only make the trade if Realmuto was signed Long Term. Where was the owner? Jim can correct me if I am wrong, but Realmuto’s waiting for FA didn’t happen until after the Arbitration. There was time to get a deal done prior, there was no need to go to Arb and that is on Middleton. It sounds like Middleton is setting it up to be Klentak’s fault when we lose JTR, and I feel less confident today that we sign him than ever. No argument with v1 that the trade shouldn’t have happened if we lose JTR, but I blame Middleton, not Klentak.

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    1. matt13…I do believe Klentak has already did the preliminary steps and laid the ground work in the JTR negotiations with the agency representing him, and Middleton does not want to start all over again with the new guy…..who more than likely will not be in place for another few weeks anyway

      I cannot believe he is keeping him on just because of the obligated finances from the contract, and does not want to incur that sunk cost.

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  103. And I agree with Hinkie. Now is the time to spend money, while others are worried. Look, we all know fans will be back, even if not to start 2021. If you are really worried, sell the team. Otherwise, double down. It costs money that will be recouped and the reward far outweighs the risk.

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  104. Yes, the Phillies have drafted poorly in the past. But since 2014, in the first round, this is what I’m seeing:

    Astros 24.1 WAR (Bregman 23.2)
    Phillies 24 WAR (Nola 21.7)
    Athletics 19.4 WAR (Chapman 20.8)
    Padres 17.6 WAR (Turner 16.2)
    Mets 16.5 WAR (Conforto 14.4)
    Rockies 11.7 WAR (Freeland 12.8)
    Cardinals 11.4 WAR (Flaherty 8)
    Red Sox 10.6 (Benintendi 9.7)
    Cubs 10.1 WAR (Shwarber 5.1)
    Dodgers 9.8 WAR (Buehler 5.8)
    Diamondbacks 6.4 WAR (Smith 0.2)
    Braves 6 WAR (Soroka 5.7)
    White Sox 5.2 WAR (Rodon 6.5)
    Brewers 4.2 WAR (Hiura 1.4)
    Royals 3.8 WAR (Finnegan 2.2)
    Indians 3 WAR (Zimmer 1.5)
    Pirates 2.5 WAR (Hayes 1.8)
    Mariners 1.2 WAR (Lewis 1.7)
    Nationals 1.2 WAR (Kieboom -0.9)
    Orioles 1.2 WAR (Mountcastle 0.5)
    Reds 0.8 WAR (Senzel 0.4)
    Angels 0.7 WAR (Adell -1.5)
    Twins 0 WAR (Rooker 0)
    Yankees -0.2 WAR (Schmidt -0.1)
    Rays -0.2 WAR (McKay -0.1)
    Rangers -0.2 WAR (Tate 0.2)
    Marlins -0.4 WAR (Rogers -0.1)
    Blue Jays -1 WAR (Pearson -0.2)
    Giants -1.1 WAR (Bart 0.1)
    Tigers -1.8 WAR (Mize -0.5)

    As you can see from the list above, since 2014, the Phillies have been drafting quite well in the first round, and that includes Moniak giving 0 WAR. So before people say that the Phillies can’t draft well lately, or that others teams are hitting on first round picks instead of the Phillies, I suggest you look at the list above.

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  105. Really not a stat man, but war for draft means nothing one player could be your whole war number, start from 2011 Trout has 74.1 war, so that means the angels are the best drafting team??

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    1. I think if you ask a team if they want to draft one of the best players EVER and you don’t know what’s going to happen with your other first round picks, I’m pretty sure 99% of the teams will say that they’ll take the sure best player ever.

      You can always augment the team with trades, FA, and international signings.

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      1. How many titles has Trout won. Randolph and moniak set these team back year, cause they had to pay for guys to play those positon, phillies draft havent been good

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        1. Everytime a Philadelphia team gets the #1 pick there isn’t a stud in the draft, no Strasburg, Harper, LaBron James, Mario Lemieux, etc.

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    2. Also, if you look at the above list, most of the draft success is based on 1 person. So what does that tell you? It tells me that it’s hard to even hit on 1 first round pick in the last 6 seasons. It shows me that in the last 6 years, not 1 team has hit on 2 first round picks to produce an above average player.

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      1. Guru……it may be too early to evaluate first round picks in drafts 2018 thru 2020…since they would be either or less than 20 HS or 23 years old college.

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        1. Then it would apply to the Phillies also, so it’s a wash for all teams. 6 players have already accumulated WAR from the 2018 draft, including Alec Bohm.

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  106. To me, the worst decision that Phillies ownership made, after a group of them purchased the team from Ruly Carpenter, was pulling out of Latin America in the 80’s to cut costs. How many players did they miss out on? We can only speculate. And I will always believe that is why Dallas Green left. He could see what was coming, in terms of changes being made in scouting and player development, and wanted nothing to do with it after being so successful in the 70’s running the minor league system.

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    1. wawatom……Juan Samuel and Julio Franco…remember them from Reading in the early 80s….I think it was rocco’s friend…Bill Giles who started making those decisions ($$$) soon after he took over in the mid-80s..

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      1. I know that Manny Trillo was originally signed by the Phillies in the early 70’s, as was George Bell, AL MVP and multi-time all star.

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  107. Jim Salisbury runs down 14 names of potential candidates for the new Phillies president of baseball ops and/or GM….among them, Jim Hendry sounds like one Middleton might target early on. Along with Erik Neander of Tampa is one of his assistants, Bobby Heck who is reportedly highly regarded. Dan Duquette is a co-alum of John Middleton’s (Amherst College). Then there is Oakland’s Billy Owens. And of course, Brian Cashman right hand man Tim Naehring, who Salisbury suggests may not be ready since he has a young family to deal with the inherent pressures of such a position.

    Hinkie, aside from Neander and Naehring, what are your thoughts on the others….??

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    1. He is getting up there…64 years old.
      Could be the oldest GM.
      Would he want to do it with all those Ivy League 30ish GMs scattered around the majors now.

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  109. Never got shot to be the man and he has done it all a notch below Know he lived in Haddonfield not that long ago.

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  111. Bauer is not coming here, especially after we lose Realmuto. And what would be the point of a 1 year deal for him when we need a lot and if we lose Realmuto we are back to rebuilding?

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      1. Really…..I rather win a WS one year soon…..even get to a WS soon.
        Bauer would give you three solid arms.

        And pitching and defense wins……not great hitting bashers during the regular season who pileup the offensive numbers vs other teams 4 or 5 number pitchers or sub-par BP arms..
        Good hitters get out,7 of 10 times at bat
        Hitters do not face an array of many 4s and 5s in the play-offs.

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        1. Good points Romus. Ive been interested in Bauer since the CLE rumors. I say add him, and roll the dice, until a mini rebuild can be done. Realmuto is great in many ways but I’d say the team should do as well or better with Bauer/Knapp/Marchan than Realmuto/VV. It’s debatable, similar logic as thinking that keeping Sixto and signing a catcher for 1 year (went from LA to MIL)

          Performing in the playoffs is much different Than the regular season. Throwing 3 aces or near aces ramps up the pressure on the hitters. Probably need to add one because Nola seems to not be able to pitch on short rest, which is needed also for the playoffs
          Sign Bauer, make up the offense else where. It’ll stink to lose Realmuto, but signing Bauer would ease that pain , just not on the team payroll side of things

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          1. Agree….not sure Middleton has the spunk however to dole out $30M plus to Bauer to get him to come to Philly for one year.
            The Yankees and Mets may try…..maybe even the Dodgers since he is a Southern Cal guy.

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  112. No way Bauer comes here. Too much $$ and it just perpetuates a situation where it is pay up and pay up and hope that the pieces fit together. We will likely lose JTR to Mets or somebody else who is willing to pay 200 mill (@7 years) for a great catcher with 2+ years good performance and then a monstrous decline. We are years away from a continuing contender – and a bullpen, full time good fielding shortstop, and quality fill in left fielder PLUS a quality starter – DeSclafani ? or something like that. I say take the 200 million and buy a bullpen and quality pitcher -not Bauer who is divisive; and invest the rest in young talent.

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  113. I don’t think we are Bauer away from a WS. And, where is the D and offense coming from? We are not strong defensively in LF, CF, 1B, 3B, and SS. Now, without JTR, we need a C. Andrew Knapp is not an every day C. And, he has improved Defensively, but is far away from Realmuto. I would like to first make the Playoffs. If we lose Realmuto, let’s look at the team objectively. We are not close to a Playoff team unless 8 teams make the Playoffs again. It makes more sense gearing up for 2022, when Stott may be ready, we have a better idea of what Spencer Howard really is. We know if Bohm can play 3B. We move on from Cutch in LF, know what we need to do to improve in CF. What is Scott Kingery? A ton of questions that need to be answered if the goal is to ever be a WS contender again. I hate the thought of another non-winning season, but I don’t see a path to win next year without Realmuto and spending additional money. I don’t think we can re-sign JTR and not still need additional moves. So, I agree with those of you who question spending the money for him when we need more, and my only rebuttal is that I believe Middleton should spend the $, pandemic or not, because I believe he will recoup whatever he spends, make it back, plus substantial profit, and we, the fans, are owed that due to mismanagement of the team. And, I don’t think Middleton could have done a worse job than he did at that zoom conference. Ned Rice can be the GM for a few weeks, or up to a season? What is that? There is no difference between Rice and Klentak. And he got annoyed at the questions about MacPhail. The Twins won 30 years ago! What does that have to do with Baseball in 2020? Clearly, my faith in John Middleton has disappeared.

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    1. Catcher….James McCann for two years @ $10/12M AAV.
      Defensively he is more than adequate….this season he even showed offensive punch.

      LF..have to live with Cutch for one more year due to the contract.

      CF….and I beg to differ on Haseley…..he may not fit the ‘offensive characteristics’ of corner OFers…but he fits the CF mold just fine….and his defense is 55

      1st and 3rd defensively…..it is what it is, if you want the bats in the lineup

      Middle infielders……bringing back JTR at $25M, means Didi probably walks…so it is Segura and Kingery to start the season in ’21

      “but I don’t see a path to win next year without Realmuto and spending additional money.”….these last two years the Phillies had JTR and spent…Wheeler/Didi this year.

      Seems many posters on here feel JTR returning is the ‘end all-be all’ in order for the Philies to move forward and win a championship

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      1. I don’t think losing JT is the end all. McCann would be ok. I’m ok with Haseley in CF if Girardi will let him play there and give him significant playing time.

        Last year for Cutch in LF.

        Need a 4th outfielder not named Quinn.

        Need to resign Didi or a ML ss.

        Kingery has to prove whether he’s a starter or a bench player.

        Segura @ 2nd or 3rd if Kingery proves he is the 2nd basemen.

        Bohm at 1B. Hoskins backup/DH/bench.

        Acquire a #2 or #3 starter.

        Acquire a journeyman 3B til Scott shows up.

        Acquire a covey of bullpen arms not standing at a crossroad with a cardboard sign saying will pitch for ML salary. Dispensary/therapy graduates from 2020 need not apply.

        Making the playoffs in the expanded format is one thing. Winning in this format and being in the WS is quite another. Mix this up with the turmoil of the FO structure, Covid19, and JM’s snail pace to get the organization right might be too much stuff to wade thru for a 2021 parade on Broad.

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        1. Skeet…to get a #2 or #3 starter…will cost ‘minimum’ $20M AAV for 3/5 yrs….just look at Arrieta’s AAV, and he was on the downward slope in his career.
          Will be hard to do….if he plans on staying below the threshold, and if they re-sign JTR at what he is asking…or close to it.

          There is only one top line pitcher right now who is willing to buck the security of a LTC…and that is Bauer….he may be starting the new trend for pitchers….mercenaries at an earlier age for one year contracts….plenty of risk, but also has its rewards when it works.

          BP arms …A’s Liam Hendrix will be out there…..he is probably top reliever on the free agent market, and will command $13/14M AAV for maybe 2 or 3 years. I do not see the As bringing him back right now.

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          1. Romus, the money asked is not the problem with JT. It’s the years. For instance, if Phillies willing to go 5/$23-25M, 2 additional years would have to be for less than $25M per annum. 15-15 or 20-15 might be easier to take but that’s up to Boras and Rice to figure out.

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  114. Romus, I can’t argue with your points, except to say that I don’t see that team as a Playoff team. Unless, of course, 8 teams make the Playoffs. To me, McCann is ok. I don’t see Realmuto as the be all and end all, I simply wanted to make the Playoffs next year. But, that may just be too bad for me, especially if it takes all season to find a GM. So, let’s assume Realmuto walks, and Bauer goes to a team he thinks is closer to winning. Haseley is your CF, ok, but I was struck by Middleton talking about how poorly we draft, mentioning Nola and Bohm, and overlooking Haseley. Is that an organizational belief? So, Hoskins when he gets back, Kingery, Segura, Bohm, Cutch, Haseley and Harper, McCann at C. A Playoff team? If MacPhail is still here, are we counting on any top level BP arms? I don’t see him advocating for Hendriks, for instance.

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    1. matt13…..you will still need that third impact starter….the one Arrieta was suppose to be.
      If you have that…then, you can make a run…especially if Eflin continues to progress from the back end of the rotation and Howard remains healthy and progresses also.

      Yeah that struck me, perhaps, as at Freudian slip of sorts, not mentioning Haseley in the conversation of those who were drafted and seem to have made it.
      Maybe John Middleton reads Phuture Phillies and believes what the readers say…that Haseley as the 8th pick in the 2017 draft amounts to a failure and only a 4th OFer.
      But judging lately by the Managing Partner’s recent decisions, I would not put it past him to make that assumption on the player….after all, the player has had a very long career so far with his 334 MLB PAs spaced over two sporadically used years.
      Why not label him as a flizzly flop. (tic)

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