2019 Draft Discussion: Day Two

The Phillies made eight picks during the second day of the draft.  They surprised a lot of us by taking a prep shortstop with their third round pick.  With picks four thru seven, they finally selected some pitchers.  Over the final three rounds, the Phillies took another shortstop and two corner infielders.

Through ten rounds (nine picks), the Phillies have taken 8 college players and one prep player.  The college breakdown was one JUCO, five four-year juniors, one fourth year senior, and one fifth-year senior.

Tuesday’s selections were as follows –

  • 3rd round: Jamari Baylor, a shortstop from Benedictine School (HS)
  • 4th round: Erik Miller, a junior, LHP out of Stanford
  • 5th round: Gunner Mayer, a 1st year juco, RHP out of San Joaquin Delta
  • 6th round: Andrew Shultz, a junior, RHP out of Tennessee
  • 7th round: Brett Schulze, a junior, RHP out of Minnesota
  • 8th round: Nate Fassnacht, a junior, shortstop out of George Washington
  • 9th round: Rudy Rott, a 4th year senior, first baseman out of Ohio University
  • 10th round: Tatum, McCarthy, a 5th year senior, third baseman out of Fesno State

On Monday, the Phillies used their first round position to select Bryson Stott, a shortstop out of UNLV.  They didn’t have a second round pick.  They lost it and $500,000 of international bonus money when they signed free agent outfielder Bryce Harper, who had received and declined a qualifying offer from his previous team.

The Phillies’ total bonus pool is $6,799,590.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:     14  – $4,036,800
  •   3rd:     91 –     $647,300
  •   4th:   107 –     $478,300
  •   5th:   137 –     $357,100
  •   6th:   167 –     $272,500
  •   7th:   197 –     $213,300
  •   8th:   227 –     $172,100
  •   9th:   257 –     $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –     $144,800

Schedule (All Times ET)

Wednesday, June 5
Day 3
Rounds 11-40
Live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at noon ET

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

As in previous years, I’ll post a place for daily draft discussions until the draft is completed,  then, weekly draft discussions until the signing period is over.  Draft signings will be tracked here – 2019 Draft Tracker

91 thoughts on “2019 Draft Discussion: Day Two

  1. Interesting to hear that Stott and Harper are friends as are their families. Wonder if that had any impact on their decision to take him.

    Also wonder if they will be a little more aggressive then usual and send a few of the college picks to Lakewood and send a few of the young Lakewood kids down to the Crosscutters. I know it was said that Garcia won’t go down, but maybe one or two of De La Cruz, Trejo, Pelletier, Holmes or Stobbe.

  2. Should I feel underwhelmed, okay, happy or excited about our top 9 picks? From the comments on the first day, comme ci comme ça might be the operative phrase. Losing that 2nd round draft pick for the 2nd year in a row puts a bit of a damper on things. It seems in older drafts, the #1 and #2 picks are guys to get really excited about and the rest of the draft is a few lightning strikers or scorched earthers scenarios plus a bunch of org filler. What is it this time?

      1. IMO, it is fairly obvious, it is a more reliable data base on running the analytics on college players than it would be on the typical 18-year old HS player.

      2. It’s still a crap shoot. You can have all the data in the world, and you’ll be lucky to get 1 starter (let alone an elite player) from this draft.

          1. Stat .data. cant measure desire. discipline. heart. Thinks you need to get better. What good are high school stats?

        1. it is a funnel. with consistent metrics if you follow certain patterns. there are some teams who are better at following these patterns than others. there are some teams who are still relying on old school patterns and have not adapted based on new information.

          1. It is absolutely not a crap shoot. That implies all luck and makes excuses for the front office. Some teams are better at it than others because they have better talent evaluators, better scouts, better decision makers.

            1. This is all because of how some of us feel that the Nats, Red Sox, and Astros are out drafting us right? So let’s see what they’ve done since 2000:

              Nats (from 2005): Ryan Zimmerman (37.7), Jordan Zimmerman (19.7), Strasburg (29.9), Harper (28.2), Rendon (23.2)

              Red Sox: Youkilis (27.1), Lester (30.3), Papelbon (16.2), Pedroia (51.7), Buchholtz (15.5), Ellsbury (21.3), Bradley Jr. (12.8), Betts (37.7)

              Astros: Pence (16.2), Keuchel (18.3), Springer (21.1), Correa (19.9), Bregman (15.5)

              For the Nats, Harper and Strasburg were no brainer picks at #1. If you take out those 2 guys, they only got 3 players. For the Red Sox, they hit hit early in the 2000s but only have Betts to show for it recently. The Astros were terrible early and made it up for it recently.

              So by looking at these picks, I can say that the Astros have some success now. But I can’t say that the Red Sox and Nats are out drafting the Phillies.

  3. Nine draft picks and not one pitcher from Cal State Fullerton. Already a success in my book.

  4. I like slott if you watch his video. he goes with the pitch. I saw him fooled on a pitch and just slapped it to left. he looks like he can play but who really knows. Hinkie the conference he plays in is it good?

    1. rocco……10th round pick McCarthy Tatum and Aaron Judge….the common denominator, beside each being big and tall….both alum Bulldogs of Fresno State.

      1. EricD……there are really only a handful that are considered the top….SEC, PAC12, ACC, Big12 and Big Ten…..then comes the second tier conferences of D1 schools.
        …MAC, Sun Belt, MWC, AAC, Conference USA…..so there is a bit of a drop off.

        1. One of my players went to SD State, I get what you are saying but the drop off isn’t as crazy as you’d think. Not in DI baseball.

    2. I’ve seen him described as a more athletic version of Daniel Murphy who can stick at short. If that’s what he becomes, that makes him an immediate AS candidate and I’ll take a hard-hitting, athletic SS who can field his position well any day of the week. I’m good with this pick.

  5. I like the pitchers they took 4, 5 and 6. More upside than you would usually think with college players in those spots.

  6. In 2014, the Phillies went college heavy in Days 1 and 2 with Sammy Boy McWilliams as the lone HS (I don’t count Marrero as HS) – this draft produced Nola and Hoskins drafted in Day 1 and 2, respectively.

    In 2019, the Phillies drafted 8 (or 9) from college ranks a departure from Almaraz’ last 4 draft where he drafted average of 3 HS prospects in Days 1 and 2. Given how slow the Phillies developed their HS draftees, a change in draft philosophy probably make sense for them.

  7. The 4 selections from 4th to 7th Rds seem to break the mold from past drafts. Instead of ‘safe’, control-oriented, and often soft-tossing arms we suddenly got a run of high-velo arms several of whom flat-out struggled with control. Gotta give Johnny A and team credit for being willing to change stripes and try the high risk/reward route for a change.

    I also believe there may be 4 underslot signings (3rd Rd Baylor, 7th Rd Schulze, 9th Rd Rott, and 10th Rd Tatum) that could free up decent cash for a significant play(s) at Day 3 HS talent! Maybe Pick #11 will be exciting.

    1. I wonder how much of the change of approach is Johnny changing his mind and how much is pressure/wrist twisting. Johnny has always been consistent in saying that strike throwing is his most important criteria because guys can’t learn that skill. I doubt he came around like this and took these guys entirely on his own. It’s obvious to me he’s lost a lot of power in the draft room – he may even be on the edge of being replaced right now. None of those power arms – who I LOVE by the way – look like Johnny-initiated picks.

      1. I wonder when doing the organization wide assessment during the off season that maybe they realized that minors were overstuffed with #5 starters and the high school bats and arms aren’t developing like they should be.

  8. Here’s my annual guess at what the signing bonus situation may look like for the Phillies day one and two draft picks:

    Round 1 Bryson Stott (4.04 million slot)
    Round 3 Jamari Baylor (647 thothousand slot)
    Round 4 Erik Miller (478 thousand slot)
    Round 5 Gunner Mayer (357 thousand slot)
    Round 6 Andrew Schultz (272 thousand slot)
    Round 7 Brett Schulze (213 thousand slot)
    Round 8 Nate Fassnacht (172 thousand slot)
    Round 9 Rudy Rott (153 thousand slot)
    Round 10 McCarthy Tatum (145 thousand slot)

    Phillie 5% overage allowance = 324 thousand dollars

    IMO Stott, Baylor, Miller, Schultz, Schulze, and Fassnacht will all sign for slot/about slot. Rott and Tatum will sign for 10 thousand dollars each. That will save the club almost 290 thousand dollars. Gunner Mayer may be a slight over pay (maybe 400 thousand).
    That would leave the Phillies ~570 thousand dollars to use on day three picks. That money would be used to pay guys more than the 125 thousand dollar day three slot.
    Johnny A will probably pick mostly college pitchers. Most of those college arms will get slot, a couple/few will get slightly above slot. They’ll also pick a college catcher (probably at slot). Johnny A will use most of the ~570 thousand dollars I project to be available on prep and JUCO players who are demanding slightly more than slot (175-250 thousand dollars).

    Here are some of the players I’m hoping for today:

    COLLEGE ARMS

    * Gianluca Dalatri (RHP UNC)
    * Mason Feole (LHP UConn)
    * Louie Varland (RHP Concordia Univ Minnesota)
    * Nick Snyder (LHP WVU)
    * Adam Lukas (RHP Evansville)
    * Riley Ornido (RHP Univ of San Francisco)

    COLLEGE BATS

    * Tommy Jew (CF UC Santa Barbara)
    * Ryan Ward (OF/C Bryant University)
    * Brandon McIlwain (21 YO soph eligible CF Cal)

    JUCO PLAYERS

    * Luke Little (LHP San Jacinto CC)
    * Orlando Ribalta (RHP Miami Dade JC)
    * James Nix (RF Central Florida JC)

    HS PLAYERS

    * Bodi Rascon (LHP Decatur Texas)
    * Hunter Cope (RHP Newport Beach, CA)
    * Hylan Hall (RF Ocoee, FL)

    JOHNNY ALMARAZ RE-DRAFTS

    * Carter Bins (C Fresno State)
    * Edouard Julien (IF/OF Auburn)
    * DJ Carpenter (RHP Central AZ JUCO)
    * Jake Smith (RHP Chipola JUCO Fla)

  9. Phillies 11th round pick … CF Marcus Lee Sang Northern HS (MD)

    Two picks later Nick Snyder goes to the DBacks.

    1. Looks like Sang was a two way player in HS. 6’1″ LHP/OF is a St John’s commit. Phillies wouldn’t have picked him here if they didn’t already have a price agreed upon.

  10. Phillies 12th round pick … RF Jadiel Sanchez Natividad Rodriguez HS (PR)
    Two HS OFers to start day three.

  11. Phillies 13th round pick … CF Hunter Markwardt Oklahoma Christian University (OK)
    He’s 6’1″, 185 L/L.
    Markwardt slashed .375/.455/.551 this season.

  12. Justin Hooper who I hope falls to the Phillies at Rd 14, I think is a good buy low high reward pick. KC just drafted Hooper.

    1. KuKo … I wrote about him a few weeks ago (reposted it this week).
      Unfortunately, he just went to the Royals in round 14.

      * Justin Hooper (LHP UCLA) is a lottery ticket. The good: Hooper has great size (6’7″, 230 lb), throws hard (mid 90’s), and pedigree (was a HS All-American). The bad: Hooper hasn’t pitched in two years (had TJ prior to the 2018 season), and was having trouble with the strike zone (6.4 BB per 9 IP in college) before his arm injury. The thing to maybe hold out some hope for is this … Hooper made the Cape Cod League All-Star team in the summer of 2017. That summer, he went 23.1 IP, 22 H, 4 BB, 21 K after making an adjustment to his delivery. Hooper still has two years of eligibility, but is already 22 YO. This is Hooper from his prep days on the summer showcase circuit.

  13. Phillies 15th round pick … 6’4″, 190 lb RHP Adam Leverett Gordon State Junior College (GA). He’s a soph.

  14. Phillies 16th round pick … 6’0″, 180 lb U of Missouri SS Chris Cornelius.
    Cornelius slashed .327/.387/.475, 7 HR this season. Looks to be a slick fielder.

  15. Phillies 17th round pick … 6’1″, 200 lb LHP Hunter Milam from Gulf Coast CC (FL).
    Milam was picked in the 22nd round last year by the LAA.

  16. Phillies 18th round pick … 6’4″, 210 lb LHP Nick Lackney from Univ of Minnesota.
    Lackney in 2019: 47 IP, 36 H, 21 BB, 45 K, 2 S.

  17. Spencer Jones and Chris Newell are still available. I estimated about $500-$600K available pool, if I add $125K is $625K-$725K, will that be enough to sign Jones or Newell? Newell can probably sign for $600K.

    1. I forgot about the 5% extra cushion. So it’s still possible to draft and sign one high upside HS in the late rounds.

  18. The Mets draft strategy are focused on signing their Rd 1-4 as Rd 5-10 are all Senior draftee. And given the depth in their farm, the Brave can afford to take some risks and drafting a lot of HS and JUCO prospects.

    1. When the Mets took Allen in the 3rd round they pretty much guaranteed that the rest of their top-10 picks needed to be cheap signs. They don’t have enough bonus pool money to buy out his college commitment otherwise

      1. Evidently Brodie Van, new Mets GM, must have insider information from his agents network that probably let him decide to take the chance and get Allen’s signature.
        It is a bold move but I think he knows he can get it done.

  19. Phillies 19th round pick … 6’4″, 200 lb LHP Spencer Van Scoyoc from University of Central Oklahoma. Love this pick because Johnny A is taking a shot on a former top prospect from Iowa who has been a disaster so far in college. Van Scoyoc was Arizona State’s Friday night starter, but lost that job because he just couldn’t find the K zone (24 IP, 25 BB). He eventually transferred to Central Okla.

  20. Phillies 20th round pick … 6’3″, 175 lb CF Keaton Greenwalt from Lubbock Christian.
    Greenwalt batted .361/.422/.580, 8 HR, 12 SB in 13 attempts for the DII school.

  21. Congratulations to Jose Rodriguez from Vineland (!!!) Cumberland County College on being picked by the Reds in the 20th round. He’s a 6’0″, 195 lb RHP.

  22. Congratulations to Marlton’s Matt Stil (Cherokee HS & Rowan U) on being drafted in round 21 by Kansas City.

  23. Phillies 21st round pick … 6’2″, 170 lb RHP Hilton Dyar from Clinton HS (MS).
    This is kid is young. Still 17 YO for another month and a half.
    He throws 91 MPH, according to Perfect Game. Should be an easy sign. He’s uncommitted to play college ball.

    1. Rd 21-40 is when Johnny A. is really swinging at the fences. I expect at least 3 HS in Rd 21-30 and another 3-4 in the final 10.

      1. Still need to ensure there are picks left at the end to draft any of the sons of Phillies employees….is that still a tradition?

  24. I’m legitimately shocked no one has drafted Hunter Barco yet. I understand the mix of injury concern and college commitment caused him to drop, but he definitely looks the part of a MLB starting pitcher and when his pitches are on, he looks like a #2 guy. 6’4″ lefties touching 94 in high school aren’t a dime a dozen. Can’t imagine he’d sign for $600k, but I’d rather we draft him and not be able to sign him than risk someone else drafting him and him actually signing.

    1. Barco is unsignable at this point. He wasn’t picked on day one so he’ll head to the University of Florida. Someone will probably draft him late today just to have a relationship with him. Could help them gain info/insight with him for when he becomes available again in three years.

  25. Phillies 22nd round pick … 6-foot, 170 lb CF Tucker Maxwell from U of Georgia.
    Maxwell is old for the class (23 in September). He slashed .239/.371/.484, 10 HR this season.

    Get to know Tucker Maxwell from his senior year of HS.

  26. Phillies 23rd round pick … Herbert Iser. I’m a big fan. Wrote about him a few days ago:

    * Herbert Iser (C Dallas Baptist U) is a soph eligible prospect with a strong pedigree. Iser was rated the No. 7 prep catcher in the nation as a senior in 2017 by Perfect Game. He went the JUCO route as a frosh and dominated there (.322/.352/.567, 11 HR). This season, the LH hitting backstop is slashing .295/.359/.517, 7 HR at DBU. He will, however, need to lower his 30% K rate.

    BTW … Iser is the 5th player from DBU Johnny A has drafted in five years.

  27. Johnny A. Must Have Checklist”

    1) Cal State Fullerton pitcher
    2) Dallas Baptists bat – CHECKED!! (Rd 23 Iser)
    3) Long Island HS prospect
    3) Canadian dude

    So far, Johnny A. is only 1 of 4 from his annual R4 checklist

      1. @catch – Johnny A. subsequently got his Long Island prospect (Rd 32 Koester) and Canadian dude (Rd 33 Little) so he increased his average to 3 of 4.

        The one he missed is the Cal State Fullerton arm who (as we all know) is a soft tosser with good command.

  28. Apparently these guys will not budge form their commitments…so they go undrafted I assume:
    . Maurice Hampton, OF, LSU commitment
    . Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt commitment
    . Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida commitment
    . Lee Brooks, SS, Cal Poly commitment
    . Bryce Osmond, RHP, Oklahoma State commitment
    . Jerrion Ealy, OF, Mississippi commitment
    . Spencer Jones, 1B, Vanderbilt commitment
    . Will Rigney, RHP, Baylor commitment
    . Riley Cornelio, RHP, TCU commitment
    . Brett Thomas, RHP, South Carolina commitment
    . Brennan Milone, SS, South Carolina commitment
    and local Malvern Prep kid….. Chris Newell, OF, Virginia commitment

  29. NYY’s take RHP Matt Minnick (Mercyhurst College). Someone on here (sorry I forget who you are) has been hyping Minnick in these draft threads.

    1. It was me, of course the Yankees would draft him. Pretty sure Phillies are allergic to drafting from their own state.

    2. I had hyped Tyler Yankosky, Millersville RHP, 6′ 6″ 225lbs who the Phillies were high on. Throws a 97mph FB with a good slider. Where does he go you ask. To the Nats in the 19th round.

  30. Phillies loading up on prep and JUCO kids today.
    Round 24 … 6’2″, 200 lb RHP Jose Ulloa from ASA JUCO Miami (FL)
    In two years at ASA College, Ulloa has totaled 48.2 IP, 48 H, 34 BB, 53 K.

  31. Phillies 25th round pick … 6’3″, 200 lb RHP Jamie Sara from William & Mary (VA).
    Sara looks like another hard throwing reliever with control problems (what’s gotten into Johnny A? – just kidding, I’m happy to see the shift in philosophy). This season, Sara totaled 15.2 IP, 10 H, 19 BB, 22 K.

  32. The Marlins are having one hell of a draft ! Have loved a lot of their picks, and they just took Brandon McIlwain (probably won’t sign … but … maybe they know something) in round 26.

    1. I agree with you, the Marlins are drafting better than before. In fact, the other NL East appears to have a very sound draft strategy. The Mets are concentrating on high upside prospects and they are draft them in bulk to “hedge” whoever decides to honor their college commitment. While the Braves are draft a lot of lottery picks. The Nationals keeps putting their chips on high risk high reward prospects.

      The 2019 gave me the same feeling as 2014 – which is not bad because the 2014 is an excellent draft for the Phillies.

  33. Phillies 26th round pick … CF Hunter Hearn from Sam Houston State.
    The 6’2, 200 pound senior slashed .336/.382/.593, 11 HR.

    … and with that … I gotta’ head out. See you guys later.

  34. Jerad Melone from West Chester is still available, top 5 in BA for D2, 1B/3B, local product and a senior, wouldn’t hurt to take a look

  35. I love the Micah Yonamine pick!!! I hope the Phillies can sign the kid!! I don’t see him stick at C but he can hit for power at either corner IF or OF.

  36. I am excited Johnny A has taken a chance at drafting some pitchers with more stuff and upside than the usual guys (C.Eastman, C.Seabold, C.Irvin, B.Quinn, A.Brown, T.Gilbert, L.Leftwich, M.Imhoff) but a little disappointed that he only took 1 starting pitcher in the top 10 rounds. Two if you include Gunner Mayer but he is reportedly a complete project. Maybe Schulze will get a chance to start. We desperately need more middle to top of the rotation starting pitchers in the system. Checking the box scores everyday and seeing these org fillers get beat down night after night needs to change.

    1. What surprised me more than anything was the type of pitchers they selected. It seems like 85-90% of the arms they drafted have trouble finding the strike zone on a consistent basis. It will be a big task for the developmental instructors to see if they can harness the arms and tweak the mechanics enough to help them move forward.

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